General Election 2024 results: Labour wins a "Loveless Landslide"

LABOUR returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a mathematically mind-boggling majority at the 2024 General Election.

Sir Keir Starmer's party took 411 seats, a gain of 209, in a massive victory which almost matched the majority won by Tony Blair in 1997.

But, in a result which has already been termed a "Loveless Landslide", Labour received less than 10 million votes and took just a 33.8% share overall.

That was only modestly up on the 32.1% share received by Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn - who actually received more votes due to the higher turnout four-and-a-half years ago.

Back then, Mr Corbyn led Labour to its worst result in terms of seats since 1935 by piling up thousands of unnecessary additional votes in already rock-solid safe seats.

This time, though, Mr Starmer's broader appeal has resulted in the Labour vote being far more evenly spread across the United Kingdom with such a level of efficiency that any attempt to analyse the outcome using a traditional swingometer was rendered completely useless.

Overall, there was a 10.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour at this election, something which would have resulted in a hung parliament if the movement of votes had been the same across all of the constituencies.

However, that did not happen because, whereas previously the swing change has been pretty evenly matched between Labour gain and Conservative loss (or vice-versa), the swing this time could be almost solely attributed to the collapse in the Tories' vote share.

Indeed, any sort of analysis must begin with the obvious conclusion that this was the most visceral repudiation of the Conservative Party since its formation in 1834.

Frankly, the results of this General Election made the 1997 collapse look like a grand day out, as they received a record-low share of the vote (23.7%) and finished with 121 seats, another record low.

No fewer than 11 Cabinet ministers lost their seats - another record - including Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Perhaps none of these was quite on par with the Portillo moment in 1997, though.

Instead, that belonged to Jacob Rees-Mogg who was roundly defeated who was defeated in North East Somerset and Hanham by Dan Norris of Labour.

Or, more likely still, it was the unceremonious deposing of former Prime Minister Liz Truss whose reluctance to go on stage for her result led to a round of slow handclaps.

Ms Truss - who had a record-short tenure of 49 days as Prime Minister and infamously failed to outlast a lettuce - was defeated in the South West Norfolk constituency by Terry Jermy of Labour on a 26.2% swing. 

Meanwhile, the seats of three other former Conservative Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May - in Witney, Henley and Thame, and Maidenhead respectively - all returned a Liberal Democrat MP.

For the record, none of those former PMs was standing - but the turnover symbolised another big theme of the results of this election: the return of the Lib Dems.

In taking 72 seats, the Lib Dems will hold their biggest representation at the House of Commons since the party was founded in 1988, and the highest number by any Liberal party since 1923.

Yet, they also saw only a modest increase in their vote share - up by 0.6% on 2019 when the party comprised of just 11 MPs and then-leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

Undoubtedly, the sharp increase can be attributed to two main factors, in addition to the Conservative collapse.

The first is a ruthless targeting of potential seats and the intentional disproportionate pouring of funds and resources in those constituencies.

Secondly, the Lib Dems benefited from tactical voting as primarily Labour voters lended their vote in order to see a Conservative opponent beaten.

In fairness to the Lib Dems, the extent of tactical voting is often overstated - and, even in their south west heartland where they made many of their gains, Labour also did historically well and won all sorts of seats which it has never held before.

Now, it is not particularly remarkable that the Conservatives hold no seats in the north east or Cumbria, or that they have been wiped out altogether in Wales.

However, the fact that the Tories have just four MPs in Devon and none at all in Cornwall is noteworthy.

Indeed, it has had the effect of reducing the Conservative representation to suburbs of London and Birmingham, and some remaining true blue constituencies in rural parts of Yorkshire and the south.

Meanwhile, across the country, the Conservatives faced a further wholly different type of opponent in a significant change to the 2019 election.

In 2019, Nigel Farage - then as leader of the Brexit Party - was satisfied by the offer made by Conservative leader Mr Johnson to "get Brexit done", and stood down candidates in seats which the Tories were defending to prevent a split in the right-wing vote.

This time, there was no such deal between Mr Farage and the Tory leader Mr Sunak - and the Reform Party responded by biting huge chunks out of the Conservative vote all around the country.

Lee Anderson retained Ashfield, having originally won it for the Conservatives in 2019, former leader Richard Tice took Boston and Skegness, former Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe gained Great Yarmouth, and the far less heralded James McMurdock won South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The big news, though, was the entry into Parliament for the first time by Mr Farage - who, at the eighth attempt to gain a seat at Westminster, finally won in Clacton.

Beyond those constituencies, Reform finished second in 98 seats, wreaking havoc primarily upon the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to achieve a whole slew of narrow victories.

As such, the 2024 General Election result exposed the truly perverse nature of the First Past The Post system.

For, while Labour, on average, picked up one seat for around every 23,000 votes, Reform took 823,000 votes for each MP.

Now, pure proportional representation (PR) has its own inherent weakness in that it encourages individual parties to take an approach in thinking which is far too narrow merely so that they can secure votes from their base.

Meanwhile, studies into the Alternative Vote (AV) - already rejected thoroughly in a referendum in 2011 - showed that it had the potential to produce outcomes which were even less proportionate than First Past The Post (FPTP).

Perhaps then, the solution lies in the Additional-Member System (AMS) which is familiar to voters in Scotland and Wales as it is used to elect the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

AMS - like the current FPTP system - has a constituency vote first of all so that there is still a clear link between the public and its local representative.

In contrast to FPTP, though, AMS has a second set of votes - these are divided by the number of constituencies won on the first ballot, therefore parties with fewer seats in that first ballot benefit in the second set by taking more top-up seats.

There are, of course, still more seats available on the first ballot conducted under FPTP; however the second ballot has the effect of making a legislature far more representative of the overall votes than a FPTP-only election.

Undoubtedly, Labour will argue - with good reason - that there are far more pressing issues surrounding the state of public services after 14 years of Tory rule.

But the democratic deficit in the British system is a major issue in itself in that it feeds bitterness and cynicism which then naturally extends to perceptions about government action, or a lack of it, on matters like immigration.

Yet it is not just Reform on the right wing from which Labour will come under pressure, based on these election results.

Former leader Mr Corbyn - suspended by Labour after asserting that the scale of antisemitism in the party had been overstated for political reasons - stood instead as an independent and, with a huge personal vote of 24,120, retained the Islington North seat which he has held since 1983.

Elsewhere, the Green Party may only have taken four seats - but that is still quadruple of the previous representation based upon on a slither of the media interest afforded to Reform.

Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay were elected in Bristol Central and Waveney Valley - and it is hoped by Green supporters that, through their dual presence, they can increase the profile of the party while also moving on from the Caroline Lucas era.

Meanwhile, Mr Starmer's predictably cautious approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict undoubtedly cost him several seats as four independent Muslim candidates - Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, and Ayoub Khan - won in Leicester South, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Batley, and Birmingham Perry Barr.

Normally, a huge majority would leave a leader with little concern over fringe issues - and at least there should be little noise from the Scottish National Party in the next term after it was reduced from 48 seats into single figures on nine.

But, while Mr Starmer has hundreds of seats in the House of Commons, he also has a low personal popularity ratings and a lack of mandate outside of the Westminster bubble.

As such, the new government will need to make a significant early impact to avoid coming under pressure from an impatient and an increasingly electorally volatile British public.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Labour majority of 172

	SCOREBOARD	Seats	Diff	Votes%	Diff%
•	Labour	411	(+209)	33.8%	(+1.7%)
•	Conservatives	121	(-244)	23.7%	(-19.9%)
•	Lib Dems	72	(+61)	12.2%	(+0.6%)
•	Scottish Nationals	9	(-39)	2.5%	(-1.3%)
•	Green Party	4	(+3)	6.8%	(+4.1%)
•	Reform Party	5	(+5)	14.3%	(+12.3%)
•	Plaid Cymru	4	(-)	0.7%	(+0.2%)
•	Others	24	(+5)	5.4%

Turnout 59.9% (-7.4%)

EXIT POLL • CON 131 • LAB 410 • LD 61 • RFM 13 • SNP 10 • OTH 25

EAST MIDLANDS
Amber Valley - Ashfield - Bassetlaw - Bolsover - Boston and Skegness - Broxtowe - Chesterfield - Corby and East Northamptonshire - Daventry - Derby North - Derby South - Derbyshire Dales - Erewash - Gainsborough - Gedling - Grantham and Bourne - Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - High Peak - Hinckley and Bosworth - Kettering - Leicester East - Leicester South - Leicester West - Lincoln - Loughborough - Louth and Horncastle - Mansfield - Melton and Syston - Mid Derbyshire - Mid Leicestershire - Newark - North East Derbyshire - North West Leicestershire - Northampton North - Northampton South - Nottingham East - Nottingham North and Kimberley - Nottingham South - Rushcliffe - Rutland and Stamford - Sherwood Forest - Sleaford and North Hykeham - South Derbyshire - South Holland and The Deepings - South Leicestershire - South Northamptonshire - Wellingborough and Rushden

EAST
Basildon and Billericay - Bedford - Braintree - Brentwood and Ongar - Broadland and Fakenham - Broxbourne - Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Cambridge - Castle Point - Central Suffolk and North Ipswich - Chelmsford - Clacton - Colchester - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard - Ely and East Cambridgeshire - Epping Forest - Great Yarmouth - Harlow - Harpenden and Berkhamsted - Harwick and North Essex - Hemel Hempstead - Hertford and Stortford - Hertsmere - Hitchin - Huntingdon - Ipswich - Lowestoft - Luton North - Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Maldon - Mid Bedfordshire - Mid Norfolk - North Bedfordshire - North East Cambridgeshire - North East Hertfordshire - North Norfolk - North West Cambridgeshire - North West Essex - North West Norfolk - Norwich North - Norwich South - Peterborough - Rayleigh and Wickford - South Basildon and East Thurrock - South Cambridgeshire - South Norfolk - South Suffolk - South West Hertfordshire - South West Norfolk - Southend East and Rochford - Southend West and Leigh - St Albans - St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire - Stevenage - Suffolk Coastal - Thurrock - Watford - Waveney Valley - Welwyn Hatfield - West Suffolk - Witham

LONDON
Barking - Battersea - Beckenham and Penge - Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Bethnal Green and Stepney - Bexleyheath and Crayford - Brent East - Brent West - Brentford and Isleworth - Bromley and Biggin Hill - Carshalton and Wallington - Chelsea and Fulham - Chingford and Woodford Green - Chipping Barnet - Cities of London and Westminster - Clapham and Brixton Hill - Croydon East - Croydon South - Croydon West - Dagenham and Rainham - Dulwich and West Norwood - Ealing Central and Acton - Ealing North - Ealing Southall - East Ham - Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Eltham and Chislehurst - Enfield North - Erith and Thamesmead - Feltham and Heston - Finchley and Golders Green - Greenwich and Woolwich - Hackney North and Stoke Newington - Hackney South and Shoreditch - Hammersmith and Chiswick - Hampstead and Highgate - Harrow East - Harrow West - Hayes and Harlington - Hendon - Holborn and St Pancras - Hornchurch and Upminster - Hornsey and Friern Barnet - Ilford North - Ilford South - Islington North - Islington South and Finsbury - Kensington and Bayswater -  Kingston and Surbiton - Lewisham East - Lewisham North - Lewisham West and East Dulwich - Leyton and Wanstead - Mitcham and Morden - Old Bexley and Sidcup - Orpington - Peckham - Poplar and Limehouse - Putney - Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Richmond Park - Romford - Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - Southgate and Wood Green - Stratford and Bow - Streatham and Croydon North - Sutton and Cheam - Tooting - Tottenham - Twickenham - Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Vauxhall and Camberwell Green - Walthamstow - West Ham and Beckton - Wimbledon

NORTH EAST
Bishop Auckland - Blaydon and Consett - Blyth and Ashington - City of Durham - Cramlington and Killingworth - Darlington - Easington - Gateshead Central and Whickham - Hartlepool - Hexham - Houghton and Sunderland South - Jarrow and Gateshead East - Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland - Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Newcastle upon Tyne North - Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - North Durham - North Northumberland - Redcar - South Shields - Stockton North - Stockton West - Sunderland Central - Tynemouth - Washington and Gateshead South

NORTH WEST
Altrincham and Sale West - Ashton-under-Lyne - Barrow and Furness - Birkenhead - Blackburn - Blackley and Middleton South - Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Blackpool South - Bolton North East - Bolton South and Walkden - Bolton West - Bootle - Burnley - Bury North - Bury South - Carlisle - Cheadle - Chester North and Neston - Chester South and Eddisbury - Chorley - Congleton - Crewe and Nantwich - Ellesmere Port and Bromborough - Fylde - Gorton and Denton - Hazel Grove - Heywood and Middleton North - Hyndburn - Knowsley - Lancaster and Wyre - Leigh and Atherton - Liverpool Garston - Liverpool Riverside - Liverpool Walton - Liverpool Wavertree - Liverpool West Derby - Macclesfield - Makerfield - Manchester Central - Manchester Rusholme - Manchester Withington - Mid Cheshire - Morecambe and Lunesdale - Oldham East and Saddleworth - Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton - Pendle and Clitheroe - Penrith and Solway - Preston - Ribble Valley - Rochdale - Rossendale and Darwen - Runcorn and Helsby - Salford - Sefton Central - South Ribble - Southport - St Helens North - St Helens South and Whiston - Stalybridge and Hyde - Stockport - Stretford and Urmston - Tatton - Wallasey - Warrington North - Warrington South - West Lancashire - Westmorland and Lonsdale - Whitehaven and Workington - Widnes and Halewood - Wigan - Wirral West - Worsley and Eccles - Wythenshawe and Sale East

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST
Aldershot - Arundel and South Downs - Ashford - Aylesbury - Banbury - Basingstoke - Beaconsfield - Bexhill and Battle -  Bicester and Woodstock - Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Bracknell - Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven - Brighton Pavilion - Buckingham and Bletchley - Canterbury - Chatham and Aylesford - Chesham and Amersham - Chichester - Crawley - Dartford - Didcot and Wantage - Dorking and Horley - Dover and Deal - Earley and Woodley - East Grinstead and Uckfield - East Hampshire - East Surrey - East Thanet - East Worthing and Shoreham - Eastbourne - Eastleigh - Epsom and Ewell - Esher and Walton - Fareham and Waterlooville - Farnham and Bordon - Faversham and Mid Kent - Folkstone and Hythe - Gillingham and Rainham - Godalming and Ash - Gosport - Gravesham - Guildford - Hamble Valley - Hastings and Rye - Havant - Henley and Thame - Herne Bay and Sandwich - Horsham - Hove and Portslade - Isle of Wight East - Isle of Wight West - Lewes - Maidenhead - Maidstone and Malling - Mid Buckinghamshire - Mid Sussex - Milton Keynes Central - Milton Keynes North - New Forest East - New Forest West - Newbury - North East Hampshire - North West Hampshire - Oxford East - Oxford West and Abingdon - Portsmouth North - Portsmouth South - Reading Central - Reading West and Mid Berkshire - Reigate - Rochester and Strood - Romsey and Southampton North - Runnymede and Weybridge - Sevenoaks - Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Slough - Southampton Itchen - Southampton Test - Spelthorne - Surrey Heath - Sussex Weald - Tonbridge - Tunbridge Wells - Weald of Kent - Winchester - Windsor - Witney - Woking - Wokingham - Worthing West - Wycombe

SOUTH WEST
Bath - Bournemouth East - Bournemouth West - Bridgwater - Bristol Central - Bristol East - Bristol North East - Bristol North West - Bristol South - Camborne and Redruth - Central Devon - Cheltenham - Chippenham - Christchurch - East Wiltshire - Exeter - Exmouth and Exeter East - Filton and Bradley Stoke - Forest of Dean - Frome and East Somerset - Glastonbury and Somerton - Gloucester - Honiton and Sidmouth - Melksham and Devizes - Mid Dorset and North Poole - Newton Abbot - North Cornwall - North Cotswolds - North Devon - North Dorset - North East Somerset and Hanham - North Somerset - Plymouth Moor View - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Poole - Salisbury - South Cotswolds - South Devon - South Dorset - South East Cornwall - South West Devon - South West Wiltshire - St Austell and Newquay - St Ives - Stroud - Swindon North - Swindon South - Taunton and Wellington - Tewkesbury - Thornbury and Yate - Tiverton and Minehead - Torbay - Torridge and Tavistock - Truro and Falmouth - Wells and Mendip Hills - West Dorset - Weston-super-Mare - Yeovil

WEST MIDLANDS
Aldridge-Brownhills - Birmingham Edgbaston - Birmingham Erdington - Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - Birmingham Ladywood - Birmingham Northfield - Birmingham Perry Barr - Birmingham Selly Oak - Birmingham Yardley - Bromsgrove - Burton and Uttoxeter - Cannock Chase - Coventry East - Coventry North West - Coventry South - Droitwich and Evesham - Dudley - Halesowen - Hereford and South Herefordshire - Kenilworth and Southam - Kingswinford and South Staffordshire - Lichfield - Meriden and Solihull East - Newcastle-under-Lyme - North Herefordshire - North Shropshire - North Warwickshire and Bedworth - Nuneaton - Redditch - Rugby - Shrewsbury - Smethwick - Solihull West and Shirley - South Shropshire - Stafford - Staffordshire Moorlands - Stoke-on-Trent Central - Stoke-on-Trent North - Stoke-on-Trent South - Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - Stourbridge - Stratford-on-Avon - Sutton Coldfield - Tamworth - Telford - The Wrekin - Tipton and Wednesbury - Walsall and Bloxwich - Warwick and Leamington - West Bromwich - West Worcestershire - Wolverhampton North East - Wolverhampton South East - Wolverhampton West - Worcester - Wyre Forest

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Barnsley North - Barnsley South - Beverley and Holderness - Bradford East - Bradford South - Bradford West - Bridlington and The Wolds - Brigg and Immingham - Calder Valley - Colne Valley - Dewsbury and Batley - Doncaster Central - Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme - Doncaster North - Goole and Pocklington - Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Halifax - Harrogate and Knaresborough - Huddersfield - Keighley and Ilkley - Kingston upon Hull East - Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - Leeds Central and Headingley - Leeds East - Leeds North East - Leeds North West - Leeds South - Leeds South West and Morley - Leeds West and Pudsey - Normanton and Hemsworth - Ossett and Denby Dale - Penistone and Stocksbridge - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Richmond and Northallerton - Rother Valley - Rotherham - Scarborough and Whitby - Scunthorpe - Selby - Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Sheffield Central - Sheffield Hallam - Sheffield Heeley - Sheffield South East - Shipley - Skipton and Ripon - Spen Valley - Thirsk and Malton - Wakefield and Rothwell - Wetherby and Easingwold - York Central - York Outer

SCOTLAND

Aberdeen North - Aberdeen South - Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - Airdrie and Shotts - Alloa and Grangemouth - Angus and Perthshire Glens - Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - Bathgate and Linlithgow - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Central Ayrshire - Coatbridge and Bellshill - Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - Dumfries and Galloway - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - Dundee Central - Dunfermline and Dollar - East Kilbride and Strathaven - East Renfrewshire - Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - Edinburgh North and Leith - Edinburgh South - Edinburgh South West - Edinburgh West - Falkirk - Glasgow East - Glasgow North - Glasgow North East - Glasgow South - Glasgow South West - Glasgow West - Glenrothes and Mid Fife - Gordon and Buchan - Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - Kilmarnock and Loudoun - Livingston - Lothian East - Mid Dunbartonshire - Midlothian - Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - Na h-Eileanan an Iar - North Ayrshire and Arran - North East Fife - Orkney and Shetland - Paisley and Renfrewshire North - Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Perth and Kinross-shire - Rutherglen - Stirling and Strathallan - West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - West Dunbartonshire

WALES
Aberafan Maesteg - Alyn and Deeside - Bangor Aberconwy - Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Bridgend - Caerfyrddin - Caerphilly - Cardiff East - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Ceredigion Preseli - Clwyd East - Clwyd North - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Gower - Llanelli - Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Monmouthshire - Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Neath and Swansea East - Newport East - Newport West and Islwyn - Pontypridd - Rhondda and Ogmore - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham - Ynys Mon

General Election 2024: A re-alignment in waiting

TIME is almost up. It has been 43 days since Rishi Sunak stood out in the pissing rain in Downing Street and announced his decision to call a General Election.

Frankly the optics that day were terrible for Mr Sunak and the campaign has got little better for the Conservatives since then.

It is thought that the decision to go to the polls was made on the back of the announcement by the Office of National Statistics that inflation had finally almost dropped to the all-important 2% target.

But, after 14 years of often chaotic Conservative-led government, the opinion polls suggest the public is no longer in the mood to accept such tiny morsels. 

Instead, most polling companies continue to show the same sort of significant Labour leads which began at the tail-end of the scandal-ridden Boris Johnson era in which Mr Sunak was Chancellor. 

Moreover, for the first time since 2005, The Sun newspaper - known for wanting to back the winner - has endorsed Labour. 

It is a far cry from December 2019 when Mr Johnson won a comfortable 80-seat majority on the back of his promise to get Brexit done.

Even, as recently as May 2021, Mr Johnson eyed "a decade in power", according to the Times, as the Conservatives basked in the success of roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

But then came Partygate. And the sale of contracts for personal protection equipment to Tory donors. And the Chris Pincher groping scandal - and so much more. 

In the meantime, Labour had installed a leader in Sir Keir Starmer who was more palatable to Middle England than left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. 

Next came the financial upheaval caused by the mini-Budget announced by Liz Truss's Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng during her 49-day tenure, the shortest on record for a Prime Minister. 

Yet nothing which Mr Sunak has done since his own elevation on 25 October 2022 - which appears to have been very little - has even as much as threatened to turn the tide.

Indeed, the only noticeable shift in the polls during the election period has gone against the Conservatives following the re-entry of former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

Mr Farage entered the election in typically dramatic style, taking over the leadership of the insurgent Reform Party from Richard Tice on 3 June and announcing his candidacy in the Clacton constituency.

Remarkably, it is the eighth time that Mr Farage has stood for election to the House of Commons - and he has failed to win on the previous seven occasions in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2015.

But this time feels different - long-standing political pundits are struggling to remember a government quite as unpopular as the Sunak administration, and there is a likelihood that Reform will take a select few seats.

Ultimately, any greater impact by Reform will be stymied by the First Past The Post system - which a referendum held on 5 May 2011 agreed to keep in place over the Alternative Vote.

Instead, if the Labour vote is as efficient as suggested by some forecasts, a largely evenly-spread Reform vote across England and Wales would be likely to cause change in all sorts of Conservative seats which would not be considered, in all normality, to be marginal.

For sure, Mr Sunak appears to be running scared of this scenario and given up the fight, even going as far as to appeal to his followers on X/Twitter on the eve of the election to "stop the [Labour] supermajority".

It really was an astounding message for an incumbent Prime Minister to send out. 

Of course, it is not just Labour and Reform which the Conservatives need to worry about, though.

The Liberal Democrats were massively hit by their association with the Tories in the austerity-driven coalition between 2010 and 2015. 

But recent big-swing by-election and council election victories have shown Ed Davey's party has begun to recover ground in their traditional heartlands in the South West of England and the outskirts of London.

Some forecasts have even suggested that a particularly efficient spread of the Lib Dem vote in the south would turn Ed Davey's party into the Official Opposition and reduce the Conservatives to double figures in terms of seats.

That still seems fanciful - but what is not in doubt is the fact that the Tories are in big trouble.

Already it seems to have been generally accepted that the Conservatives are facing a 1997-style defeat when Labour under Tony Blair began three full terms of government with a stonking majority of 179.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the Conservative cohort being reduced to fewer than 100 MPs cannot be ruled out altogether.

In turn, that might signal the beginning of the end of its current guise as a political behemoth which has dominated British politics for huge stretches of time since its formation in 1834.

Certainly, Reform will be hoping to win enough seats to present itself as a legitimate offering on the political right - and, while fully-fledged political collapses are pretty rare, they are also not unprecedented. 

In the 1993 federal election in Canada, the centre-right Progressive Conservatives had their outright majority reduced to two seats. 

More recently, in the Presidential and legislative elections in France in 2017, it was the turn of the centre-left Parti Socialiste to fall away into insignificance. 

Even in the UK itself, it is not a complete unknown - although it is 114 years since a badly-divided Liberal Party collapsed from power in 1910.

Neither that party nor any of its successors have ever come close to holding a majority again, though.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024 THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

▪️ The exit poll

For people who are not complete political nerds intent on pulling an all-nighters, just staying up until 10pm - when the polls officially close - may well suffice given its improving accuracy. That will signal the release of the exit poll - a pooled effort by BBC, ITV and Sky in around 150 key constituencies - where voters are asked which candidate they voted for. The exit poll accurately assessed in 2017 that Theresa May had lost her majority and also that the Conservatives remained the largest party - while, in 2019, it pointed towards a Conservative majority of 86 under Boris Johnson which ended up being 80. In 2010, the exit poll was actually almost spot-on in predicting the number of seats won by each of the main parties as David Cameron fell short of a majority. And, even though in 2015 it failed to pick the Conservatives majority under Mr Cameron, it still correctly showed the Tories had won far more seats than the polls during the campaign had suggested.

▪️ Overall turnout

Turnout at General Elections hovvered between 70-80% for most of the 20th Century but, since the turn of the Millennium, it has dropped to 60-70%. In 2001, in an election dubbed Labour's "quiet landslide", turnout fell as low as 59.4% - although it has been at a rather heathlier 68.8% and 67.3% in the two most recent General Elections in 2017 and 2019. A lower turnout than usual this time could spell more trouble for the Conservatives if it is their disenchanted supporters who have declined the invitation to attend the ballot box. 

▪️ New boundaries and notional majorities

The outgoing Parliament finally voted on the recommendations made by the Boundary Commission, meaning this General Election will be the first to be contested under the new boundaries. To the casual observer, it will mean for many voters that they will be voting in a constituency which has changed its name. More than that, though, the geography of the new seat will be, in some cases, significantly different to its predecessor - and that leads us onto notional majorities. A notional majority is a calculation made to determine what an election result would have been in a previous election if the newly-created boundaries had been in place then. Originally, the boundary changes were expected to benefit the Conservatives slightly more than the other parties as the Commission's findings account for population movement which is generally from the north to the south, where more Conservative support is based. Such has been the steepness of the decline in the popularity of the Tories, though, that - beyond a new set of seat names - the changes will have a negligible effect. 

▪️ Big fish

It is something of a mark of the chaos of the previous Parliament that, between the elections of 2019 and 2024, there have been three Prime Ministers, five Chancellors of the Exchequer, four Home Secretaries, and four Foreign Secretaries in the four Great Offices of State, as shown below. Several of these figures are not standing for re-election while current Foreign Secretary David Cameron sits in the House of Lords. But might Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, James Cleverly or even Rishi Sunak produce a moment to rival that of the deposition of Michael Portillo in 1997?

Prime Minister	Chancellor	Home Secretary	Foreign Secretary
Boris Johnson (2019 to 06-Sep-2022)	Sajid Javid (2019 to 13-Feb-2020) Rishi Sunak (13-Feb-2020 to 05-Jul-2022) Nadhim Zahawi (05-Jul-2022 to 06-Sep-2022)	Priti Patel (2019 to 06-Sep-2022)	Dominic Raab (2019 to 15-Sep-2021) Liz Truss (15-Sep-2021 to 06-Sep-2022)
Liz Truss (06-Sep-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)	Kwasi Kwarteng (06-Sep-2022 to 14-Oct-2022)  Jeremy Hunt (since 14-Oct-2022)	Suella Braverman (06-Sep-2022 to 19-Oct-2022) Grant Shapps (19-Oct-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)	James Cleverly (06-Sep-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)
Rishi Sunak (since 25-Oct-2022)		Suella Braverman (25-Oct-2022 to 13-Nov-2023) James Cleverly (since 13-Nov-2023)	Baron (David) Cameron (since 13-Nov-2023)

▪️ Number of Conservative seats, size of Labour majority

Labour won 418 seats under Tony Blair at the 1997 General Election for a majority of 179 - while the Conservatives under John Major were reduced to 165. The Tories had fared worse only in 1906, when they took only 131 seats - yet there is speculation, even among dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives, that one or more of these records could be broken. 

▪️ Number of seats won by Liberal Democrats, Reform, and Green Party

The First Past The Post system encourages dominance by two parties by its very nature and makes it difficult for smaller parties to make much impact at a General Election. Over the years, the Lib Dems often punched above the weight of their overall vote by pouring their resources into select target seats - and the Green Party and Reform appear to be following suit. Mainly appealing to those on the left-wing who are disaffected by the centrist shift of the Labour leadership, the Greens have set their sights on Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, as well as holding Brighton Pavilion despite the retirement of four-term MP Caroline Lucas. Meanwhile, Reform will look to have attracted people disenchanted with politics generally - and, as well as holding Ashfield which the party gained in March 2024 as a result of the defection of Lee Anderson, leader Nigel Farage is aiming to make it into Parliament at the eighth time of asking as MP for Clacton. Other targets for Reform include Boston and Skegness, Basildon and Billericay and Great Yarmouth. 

▪️ Number of seats won by the Scottish Nationalist Party

Up to this point, this preview has focused on seats in England and Wales - but the situation in Scotland is slightly different. There, Labour again appears to be benefiting from a collapse in support of a scandal-hit ruling party, except in this case that party is the Scottish Nationalists, and not the Conservatives. The SNP has been in power in the Scottish Parliament since 2007, and has won the most seats north of the border in the last three General Elections - but it faces the outcome of an ongoing investigation by Police Scotland into possible fundraising fraud. Prior to SNP surge, during the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown era, Scotland was a bedrock of Labour support - and polling suggests Sir Keir Starmer has begun to recover much of the lost ground in Central Belt. Still, in contrast to the so-called Red Wall in England and large parts of Wales which are expected to return fully to the Labour fold, the political outlook in Scotland looks set to be finely balanced - and the SNP will aim to limit their losses after a rough few years. 

Another messy night

LABOUR overturned a majority of more than 20,000 in the Selby and Ainsty by-election on Thursday to gain its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945.

Keir Mather, aged 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons - the Baby of the House - after he secured 16,456 votes (46%) compared to Conservative candidate Clare Holmes's 12,295 (34.3%) on a swing of 23.7%.

Additionally, on a night when three seats were up for grabs, the Tories also lost heavily in Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats who produced a quite remarkable 29% swing.

But, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives defied dreadful national polls by claiming victory in the seat vacated in July by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Johnson had resigned as an MP following the publishing of a highly-critical report by the Parliamentary Privileges Committee into Partygate which recommended his suspension from Parliament.

But, despite avoiding the indignity of becoming the first PM to lose three by-elections on the same night since Harold Wilson in 1968, the storm clouds are still gathering for the current incumbent Rishi Sunak.

After all, the held seat in outer London was attributed almost entirely to local factors with triumphant Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell pointedly directing his victory speech to Labour mayor Sadiq Khan for his proposed imposition of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on the area.

Under the scheme, drivers must pay £12.50 per day if they drive a vehicle which does not meet modern emission standards.

Generally, these are diesel vehicles that are more than seven years old, or petrol vehicles that are more than 17 years old.

Mr Khan defended the policy even after the result in the early hours of Friday morning, saying: "It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?"

Additionally, the complaints of the Conservatives ring rather hollow if the reality of the situation is considered as ULEZ was actually initiated by Mr Johnson while he was London mayor.

The extension of the scheme to outer London under Mr Khan was also a condition set by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in exchange for financial support for Transport for London during COVID-19.

Nonetheless, Mr Tuckwell's message had a decisive effect on the seat - and, after being decidedly non-committal during campaign, Labour leader Sir Keir Starter called upon Mr Khan to "reflect" on his decision to expand ULEZ, all of a sudden rather hanging him out to dry.

That much-quoted adage of Benjamin Franklin of never interrupting an opponent while they are making a mistake appears to explain the previously cautious strategy of the Labour leader.

But, despite failing in Uxbridge, this somewhat questionable tactic might still work overall as, another political cliché - which suggests governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them - also appears to be ringing true.

The defeat in Selby and Ainsty, a long-time Tory-held rural seat in North Yorkshire, can only be considered to be a response to a government which has dragged the public, in political terms, to hell and back.

It started with austerity brought in by David Cameron in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis - then, following his resignation immediately after a losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, his successor Theresa May called a self-defeating General Election in which she lost her majority and caused complete stalemate in the Commons.

Mrs May's eventual replacement Mr Johnson - following a difficult start in which he almost seemed like his own worst enemy even among his own party - appeared to steady matters by routing a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour at the 2019 General Election.

But, three months later, COVID-19 arrived and threw the government into chaos again.

Mr Johnson applied inconsistent lockdown restrictions while Downing Street staff members unashamedly held alcohol-fuelled parties, including one on the night before Queen Elizabeth II buried her husband Prince Philip.

Eventually, after months of pressure, Mr Johnson was forced to resign as PM in July 2022, prompting a messy leadership election from which Liz Truss somehow emerged the winner.

Ms Truss arrived attempting to increase spending and cut taxes, an audacious move at a time of rising prices worldwide and one which spooked the markets so badly that, with a tenure of only 49 days, she became the shortest reigning Prime Minister in history.

Enter Mr Sunak but, as something of a charisma vacuum, he is also someone who - it has been perhaps less easily forgotten - stood alongside and was fined for a coronavirus indiscretion alongside Mr Johnson while Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Back to the by-elections on Thursday - and the south west of England is an area in which Labour has never been particularly competitive and their voters also appear willing to vote tactically.

In fact, in Somerton and Frome, the Labour candidate polled a miserable 1,009 votes (2.6%) to lose his deposit - but Labour voters there surely knew it was the Lib Dems who are the main threat to the Tories anyway.

By-election victories in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022 and now in Somerton and Frome strongly suggest Sir Ed Davey's party will indeed cause a lot of trouble for the Tories in this region at the next General Election.

In 1997, the Lib Dems won 14 seats in the south west - and they won the same number in 2010 in an overall total of 57 to prevent Mr Cameron from gaining a majority at the first attempt.

Instead, a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition was formed - though, following a near-wipeout in 2015, the Lib Dems certainly will not go down that particularly cul-de-sac again in the course of another hung parliament.

Of course, Labour continues to boast significant poll leads so will be looking towards a first outright majority since Tony Blair was victorious in 2005.

But results like the one in Uxbridge cast doubt on that ambition.

Indeed, only a fool would assess the next General Election on the basis of a uniform national swing in which all of the seats across the whole country are predicted to behave in the same way.

The political landscape has been messy for almost two decades now with the global financial crisis, austerity policies, Brexit and COVID-19 causing various levels of chaos.

It is difficult to imagine then that the next General Election - expected in spring or autumn next year - will be anything other than messy too. 

BY ELECTION RESULTS

Thursday 20 July 2023

UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP
Steve Tuckwell	CON	13,965	45.2%	(-7.4%)
Danny Beales	LAB	13,470	43.6%	(+6.0%)
Sarah Green	GRN	893	2.9%	(+0.7%)
Laurence Fox	RCM	714	2.3%	(-)
Blaise Baquiche	LD	526	1.7%	(-4.6%)
Others		1,357	4.4%

CON hold • Turnout 46.2% (17.3%)

SELBY AND AINSTY
Keir Mather	LAB	16,456	46.0%	(+21.4%)
Claire Holmes	CON	12,295	34.3%	(-26.0%)
Arnold Warneken	GRN	1,838	5.1%	(+1.9%)
Mike Jordan	YP	1,503	4.2%	(+0.8%)
Dave Kent	RFM	1,332	3.7%	(-)
Matt Walker	LD	1,188	3.3%	(-5.3%)
Others		1,195	3.5%

LAB GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.8% (-27.2%)

SOMERTON AND FROME
Sarah Dyke	LD	21,187	54.6%	(+28.4%)
Faye Purbrick	CON	10,179	26.2%	(-29.6%)
Martin Dimery	GRN	3,944	10.2%	(+5.1%)
Bruce Evans	RFM	1,303	3.4%	(-)
Neil Guild	LAB	1,009	2.6%	(-10.3%)
Others		1,166	3.0%

LD GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.2% (-31.4%)

KEY ▪️ CON Conservatives • LAB Labour • LD Liberal Democrats • GRN Green • RCM Reclaim • YP Yorkshire Party • RFM Reform UK

Index 2022

INDEX 2022

POLITICS
UK political crises
27.07  Stuck in the middle with you
11.09  That was the week that was
30.10  Yet more hard times ahead
US mid-term elections
14.11  Democrats defy expectations in US mid-term elections

FOOTBALL
World Cup
20.11  The big World Cup preview blog
03.12  Rashford and Foden help England dump out Wales
12.12  England fall to France as Morocco make history
19.12  Final: Sealed with a kiss
World Cup qualifiers
31.03  Bale keeps the Welsh World Cup dream alive
07.06  Wales end 64-year wait against weary Ukraine
Domestic football
30.04  Manchester City or Liverpool - who will blink first?
04.08  Premier League preview: Haaland signing sends Man City clear

OTHER
Snooker
15.04  Days of Thunder at the Crucible
04.05  Ronnie O'Sullivan - the greatest showman in snooker
Eurovision
19.05  Ryder restores British pride as Europe shows solidarity with Ukraine
Ice hockey
28.05  Team GB lose place at ice hockey top table
Cricket
15.06  Bairstow stokes the fire for recovering England
16.09  Reinvigorated England turn the tide
Formula 1
06.07  Sainz shines at Silverstone in maiden F1 win

Yet more hard times ahead

LATEST Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fired a grim warning in his first speech outside Number 10 Downing Street, stating that the country was in a "profound economic crisis", and there would be “difficult decisions to come".

Mr Sunak - the first ever Asian to hold the highest office in United Kingdom politics - replaced the deposed Liz Truss yesterday after she lasted only 50 days in the role, a record shortest tenure for a PM.

The markets appear to consider Mr Sunak, who previously worked in finance and was Chancellor of the Exchequer under Boris Johnson, to be a safer and more cautious pair of hands than his predecessor Ms Truss.

For, when it became clear on Monday that Mr Sunak was likely to be unopposed, trading in government bonds quickly rallied with the implied interest rate on these bonds dropping sharply.

That is a far cry from the reaction by the markets to plans laid out by Ms Truss and then-Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng in their mini-budget on 23 September.

At first, Ms Truss tried to ride out the storm by defending her strategy - and, when that failed, by sacking Mr Kwarteng on 14 October.

That same day, Ms Truss subsequently gave an extremely unconvincing appearance at a press conference - and she was reportedly little better at presenting her vision in a meeting with her backbench MPs, known as the 1922 Committee.

Jeremy Hunt came in as replacement Chancellor and promptly pulled apart the economic plans launched by Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng.

Meanwhile, Ms Truss - under severe pressure from all sides of the House of Commons at Prime Minister's Questions - declared herself to be "a fighter not a quitter" and committed her government to protecting the Triple Lock on pensions.

The problem with this was that, only a few days earlier, Mr Hunt had not ruled out a review of the Triple Lock policy - and it became evident that Ms Truss was not going to be able to extricate herself fully from her economic ideas.

Just after 1.30pm at 20 October, the 56th Prime Minister bowed to the inevitable.

Humiliatingly, the end of Ms Truss's tenure will be remember for her failure to outlast an iceberg lettuce which had been placed by the Daily Star on a bench alongside a photograph of her. 

The newspaper responded to the resignation with the headline, "Lettuce rejoice", and bookmakers offered odds of 500/1 that the lettuce would become the next PM.

Instead, it was Mr Sunak, and he now appears to have calmed the storm in the financial sector. 

At the same time, though, the Richmond (Yorks) MP has caused an immediate stir in Westminster by conducting a major reshuffle to remove many of the figures involved in the brief Truss administration. 

Mr Hunt remains as the current Chancellor, while James Cleverly - a single person argument against nominative determinism - has retained his position as Foreign Secretary. 

However, Steve Barclay, a non-entity of a former Brexit Secretary, becomes the fourth Health Secretary since July - and Gillian Keegan has been named as the fifth Education Secretary of 2022. 

Most extraordinarily, though, the reshuffle produced the return of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary who replaced Grant Shapps less than a week after she had been forced to resign from the same job.

Only just over a week ago, in a major breach of the ministerial code, Ms Braverman admitted she had been sent an official document from her personal email to a fellow MP.

But Ms Braverman did not leave Ms Truss's Cabinet quietly, penning a scathing resignation letter in which she raised concerns about "the direction of [the] government" and said "key pledges promised to voters" had been broken.

In his speech, Mr Sunak pledged to bring “integrity and accountability” to office of Prime Minister - but, with this appointment, that does not seem to have lasted for long.

Remember too that the new Prime Minister defended Mr Johnson throughout the Partygate scandal - and was even himself given a fixed penalty notice by the Metropolitan Police. 

Fortunately for Mr Sunak, the Conservative Party is currently in such mess that his fine had no bearing at all on him being installed at the head of the UK government. 

Indeed, in the end, it was remarkably straightforward.

On Monday afternoon, Penny Mordaunt withdrew her candidacy despite her supporters earlier that day stating she was closing in on the backing of 100 MPs, as required by the rules to make it to the members' ballot. 

In the previous contest, Ms Mordaunt had attracted as many as 105 MPs' votes - but, this time during a much shorter campaign, she gained far less traction.

Earlier, on Sunday night, former Prime Minister Mr Johnson pulled out of the running despite claiming to have enough support to be considered by the membership. 

The second Conservative leadership contest since July therefore concluded without an opponent to Mr Sunak. 

Still, the 42-year-old does not exactly have much of a mandate in the country at large, securing his position solely on the strength of the confirmed backing of 197 MPs. 

However, Mr Sunak has resisted calls so far from all of the opposition parties to call a General Election. 

This is perhaps unsurprising given the Tories' current standing in the polls which have shown them to be trailing Labour by huge margins. 

Mr Sunak will hope that, by framing himself as a safe pair of hands with the economy, he can make at least a dent in the type of leads not enjoyed by Labour since the early days of Tony Blair.

Undoubtedly mind, current polling showing Labour on more than 50% is a reflection of the temporary withdrawal of support by traditional Conservative voters in the Truss administration - and not necessarily a sudden massive swathe of excitement at the prospect of a government led by Sir Keir Starmer.

In fact, it should be noted that no single party has gained an actual majority (i.e. more than 50%) of the votes cast at a General Election since the Conservatives in 1931. 

Nevertheless, Labour is in its strongest position in years politically - and, with Mr Sunak warning of difficult days ahead economically, an already exhausted UK public is unlikely to take too well to further tax rises and spending cuts. 

Certainly, the narrative now is different to when austerity measures were brought in by David Cameron's coalition government. 

Back then, austerity was successfully framed as a necessary evil to reduce the deficit and bring down government debt - and, even then, the government increased the Personal Tax Allowance from £6,475 in 2010/11 to £10,600 in 2015/16. 

By contrast, with inflation rampant, Mr Sunak is unable to produce a similar boon - and, as such, this next period should remain a favourable time for Labour, politically at least. 

Economically, though, there is already some concern on the Opposition benches. 

Labour - if it wins the next election - is unlikely to find anything other than a difficult situation bequeathed to them, and therefore will find it difficult to do anything too radical. 

Now, Ms Truss's plans were the reckless wet dreams of Brexiteer libertarians living in a unreal world of only sunlit uplands - but, in their own way, the proposals were pretty radical. 

Nevertheless, a plan of cutting taxes and increasing spending at a time of uncomfortably high inflation was always going to bring only one reaction from the financial sector.

Yet, at the same time, is not something of a concern that it was effectively the markets which determined the fate of a Prime Minister? 

After all, it must be queried if, even with a significant electoral mandate from the public, the mere suggestion by a Labour government of a modest attempt of income redistribution and a bit of spending would cause the same sort of financial turmoil. 

Living in a society in which any type of government can only operate within an extremely narrow orthodoxy would demonstrate a clear schism between the concepts of capitalism and democracy. 

And, with tough times ahead on the back of a decade of tough times, perhaps this social contract has already been broken.

THE SUNAK CABINET	Elected	Constituency	Department
Rishi Sunak	2015	Richmond (Yorks)	Prime Minister
Jeremy Hunt	2005	South West Surrey	Chancellor of the Exchequer
James Cleverly	2015	Braintree	Foreign Office
Suella Braverman	2015	Fareham	Home Office
Steve Barclay	2010	North East Cambridgeshire	Health
Gillian Keegan	2017	Chichester	Education
Ben Wallace	2005	Wyre and Preston North	Defence
Mel Stride	2010	Central Devon	Work and Pensions
Dominic Raab	2010	Esher and Walton	Justice | Deputy Prime Minister
Michael Gove	2005	Surrey Heath	Levelling Up, Housing, Communities
Kemi Badenoch	2017	Saffron Walden	International Trade
Grant Shapps	2005	Welwyn Hatfield	Business, Energy, Industrial Strategy
Therese Coffey	2010	Suffolk Coastal	Environment, Food, Rural Affairs
Mark Harper	2005	Forest of Dean	Transport
Chris Heaton-Harris	2010	Daventry	Northern Ireland
Alister Jack	2017	Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland
David TC Davies	2005	Monmouth	Wales
Michelle Donelan	2015	Chippenham	Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Lord Nicholas True	-	-	Leader of the House of Lords
Penny Mordaunt	2010	Portsmouth North	Leader of the House of Commons
Oliver Dowden	2015	Hertsmere	Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
Nadhim Zahawi	2010	Stratford-on-Avon	Party Chairman