Another messy night

LABOUR overturned a majority of more than 20,000 in the Selby and Ainsty by-election on Thursday to gain its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945.

Keir Mather, aged 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons - the Baby of the House - after he secured 16,456 votes (46%) compared to Conservative candidate Clare Holmes's 12,295 (34.3%) on a swing of 23.7%.

Additionally, on a night when three seats were up for grabs, the Tories also lost heavily in Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats who produced a quite remarkable 29% swing.

But, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives defied dreadful national polls by claiming victory in the seat vacated in July by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Johnson had resigned as an MP following the publishing of a highly-critical report by the Parliamentary Privileges Committee into Partygate which recommended his suspension from Parliament.

But, despite avoiding the indignity of becoming the first PM to lose three by-elections on the same night since Harold Wilson in 1968, the storm clouds are still gathering for the current incumbent Rishi Sunak.

After all, the held seat in outer London was attributed almost entirely to local factors with triumphant Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell pointedly directing his victory speech to Labour mayor Sadiq Khan for his proposed imposition of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on the area.

Under the scheme, drivers must pay £12.50 per day if they drive a vehicle which does not meet modern emission standards.

Generally, these are diesel vehicles that are more than seven years old, or petrol vehicles that are more than 17 years old.

Mr Khan defended the policy even after the result in the early hours of Friday morning, saying: "It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?"

Additionally, the complaints of the Conservatives ring rather hollow if the reality of the situation is considered as ULEZ was actually initiated by Mr Johnson while he was London mayor.

The extension of the scheme to outer London under Mr Khan was also a condition set by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in exchange for financial support for Transport for London during COVID-19.

Nonetheless, Mr Tuckwell's message had a decisive effect on the seat - and, after being decidedly non-committal during campaign, Labour leader Sir Keir Starter called upon Mr Khan to "reflect" on his decision to expand ULEZ, all of a sudden rather hanging him out to dry.

That much-quoted adage of Benjamin Franklin of never interrupting an opponent while they are making a mistake appears to explain the previously cautious strategy of the Labour leader.

But, despite failing in Uxbridge, this somewhat questionable tactic might still work overall as, another political cliché - which suggests governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them - also appears to be ringing true.

The defeat in Selby and Ainsty, a long-time Tory-held rural seat in North Yorkshire, can only be considered to be a response to a government which has dragged the public, in political terms, to hell and back.

It started with austerity brought in by David Cameron in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis - then, following his resignation immediately after a losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, his successor Theresa May called a self-defeating General Election in which she lost her majority and caused complete stalemate in the Commons.

Mrs May's eventual replacement Mr Johnson - following a difficult start in which he almost seemed like his own worst enemy even among his own party - appeared to steady matters by routing a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour at the 2019 General Election.

But, three months later, COVID-19 arrived and threw the government into chaos again.

Mr Johnson applied inconsistent lockdown restrictions while Downing Street staff members unashamedly held alcohol-fuelled parties, including one on the night before Queen Elizabeth II buried her husband Prince Philip.

Eventually, after months of pressure, Mr Johnson was forced to resign as PM in July 2022, prompting a messy leadership election from which Liz Truss somehow emerged the winner.

Ms Truss arrived attempting to increase spending and cut taxes, an audacious move at a time of rising prices worldwide and one which spooked the markets so badly that, with a tenure of only 49 days, she became the shortest reigning Prime Minister in history.

Enter Mr Sunak but, as something of a charisma vacuum, he is also someone who - it has been perhaps less easily forgotten - stood alongside and was fined for a coronavirus indiscretion alongside Mr Johnson while Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Back to the by-elections on Thursday - and the south west of England is an area in which Labour has never been particularly competitive and their voters also appear willing to vote tactically.

In fact, in Somerton and Frome, the Labour candidate polled a miserable 1,009 votes (2.6%) to lose his deposit - but Labour voters there surely knew it was the Lib Dems who are the main threat to the Tories anyway.

By-election victories in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022 and now in Somerton and Frome strongly suggest Sir Ed Davey's party will indeed cause a lot of trouble for the Tories in this region at the next General Election.

In 1997, the Lib Dems won 14 seats in the south west - and they won the same number in 2010 in an overall total of 57 to prevent Mr Cameron from gaining a majority at the first attempt.

Instead, a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition was formed - though, following a near-wipeout in 2015, the Lib Dems certainly will not go down that particularly cul-de-sac again in the course of another hung parliament.

Of course, Labour continues to boast significant poll leads so will be looking towards a first outright majority since Tony Blair was victorious in 2005.

But results like the one in Uxbridge cast doubt on that ambition.

Indeed, only a fool would assess the next General Election on the basis of a uniform national swing in which all of the seats across the whole country are predicted to behave in the same way.

The political landscape has been messy for almost two decades now with the global financial crisis, austerity policies, Brexit and COVID-19 causing various levels of chaos.

It is difficult to imagine then that the next General Election - expected in spring or autumn next year - will be anything other than messy too. 

BY ELECTION RESULTS

Thursday 20 July 2023

UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP
Steve Tuckwell	CON	13,965	45.2%	(-7.4%)
Danny Beales	LAB	13,470	43.6%	(+6.0%)
Sarah Green	GRN	893	2.9%	(+0.7%)
Laurence Fox	RCM	714	2.3%	(-)
Blaise Baquiche	LD	526	1.7%	(-4.6%)
Others		1,357	4.4%

CON hold • Turnout 46.2% (17.3%)

SELBY AND AINSTY
Keir Mather	LAB	16,456	46.0%	(+21.4%)
Claire Holmes	CON	12,295	34.3%	(-26.0%)
Arnold Warneken	GRN	1,838	5.1%	(+1.9%)
Mike Jordan	YP	1,503	4.2%	(+0.8%)
Dave Kent	RFM	1,332	3.7%	(-)
Matt Walker	LD	1,188	3.3%	(-5.3%)
Others		1,195	3.5%

LAB GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.8% (-27.2%)

SOMERTON AND FROME
Sarah Dyke	LD	21,187	54.6%	(+28.4%)
Faye Purbrick	CON	10,179	26.2%	(-29.6%)
Martin Dimery	GRN	3,944	10.2%	(+5.1%)
Bruce Evans	RFM	1,303	3.4%	(-)
Neil Guild	LAB	1,009	2.6%	(-10.3%)
Others		1,166	3.0%

LD GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.2% (-31.4%)

KEY ▪️ CON Conservatives • LAB Labour • LD Liberal Democrats • GRN Green • RCM Reclaim • YP Yorkshire Party • RFM Reform UK

Index 2022

INDEX 2022

POLITICS
UK political crises
27.07  Stuck in the middle with you
11.09  That was the week that was
30.10  Yet more hard times ahead
US mid-term elections
14.11  Democrats defy expectations in US mid-term elections

FOOTBALL
World Cup
20.11  The big World Cup preview blog
03.12  Rashford and Foden help England dump out Wales
12.12  England fall to France as Morocco make history
19.12  Final: Sealed with a kiss
World Cup qualifiers
31.03  Bale keeps the Welsh World Cup dream alive
07.06  Wales end 64-year wait against weary Ukraine
Domestic football
30.04  Manchester City or Liverpool - who will blink first?
04.08  Premier League preview: Haaland signing sends Man City clear

OTHER
Snooker
15.04  Days of Thunder at the Crucible
04.05  Ronnie O'Sullivan - the greatest showman in snooker
Eurovision
19.05  Ryder restores British pride as Europe shows solidarity with Ukraine
Ice hockey
28.05  Team GB lose place at ice hockey top table
Cricket
15.06  Bairstow stokes the fire for recovering England
16.09  Reinvigorated England turn the tide
Formula 1
06.07  Sainz shines at Silverstone in maiden F1 win

Reinvigorated England turn the tide

RAPID-FIRE England needed less than half an hour on the final day of the Test summer on Monday to wrap up a chase of 130 and a 2-1 series win over South Africa.

Zak Crawley belied a total lack of confidence to finish 69 not out, smashing a four through the covers to seal a remarkable win in a match which lasted only 146 overs in all.

Coincidentally, the first innings of both teams took up only 36.2 overs, as England - having dismissed South Africa for 118 after Ollie Robinson's 5-49 - failed to bat the tourists out of the match, making just 158 for a lead of 40.

Even by what had gone on previously this summer, this was cricket on steroids - although it was no doubt affected by the match situation.

Indeed, if this Test had started on time, South Africa's second innings would have begun about an hour after tea on day one.

There had been no play possible on the opening day due to heavy and persistent rain in south London - and, that night, Queen Elizabeth II died.

Day two was understandably cancelled - and, amid rumours that the match might be abandoned altogether, the decision to continue came as something of a surprise.

Nevertheless, the third day began with a full house impeccably observing a minute (and more) of silence ahead of the anthems, including an emotional rendition of God Save The King.

And, for these pre-match commemorations alone, it was pretty much unanimously agreed that the tough call to carry on with the show on Saturday had been justified.

Onto the cricket - and the decider had effectively been reduced to a three-day match, although that had been adequate time in the first two Tests at Lord's and Old Trafford for the teams to achieve an innings win each.

So it proved again.

Now, this fine victory at the Oval meant England triumphed in as many as six Tests in a summer for only the second time ever, with Michael Vaughan's vintage winning all seven against New Zealand and the West Indies in 2004.

The Black Caps were England's first victims again this year as a reinvigorated side under head coach Brendon McCullum and captain Ben Stokes swept past the 2021 World Test champions with a trio of remarkable chases.

Jonny Bairstow starred as fourth innings targets of 277, 299 and 296 were reached with a ridiculous amount of ease.

Indeed, the chase in the second Test at Trent Bridge, in which Bairstow hit 136 off just 92 balls, produced some of the most ferocious hitting out ever seen in red-ball cricket.

Next came India who returned to these shores for the fifth Test of a series which should have concluded more than nine months previously in September 2021.

Instead, the Indians returned home with a 2-1 lead but one match left to play, citing concerns of playing on with COVID-19 in the camp after a member of their support staff tested positive.

Not that such concern stopped most of the India players from gearing up for the money-rich Indian Premier League (IPL) which started only five days later.

More fool them really, though. In the summer of 2021 in the slowly dying embers of the Joe Root tenure, India had faced a timid England team who had refused a chase of 273 in 70 overs against New Zealand.

However, while England spent most of the rearranged match being outplayed, they fearlessly took on a target of 378 on the evening of day four and the morning of day five.

Alex Lees and Crawley set up the audacious attempt with a century opening stand before Root (142 not out) and Bairstow (114 not out) thumped England to a record fourth innings chase.

And so, from a dreadful record of one win in 17 Tests, the new Stokes and McCullum regime had made it four wins out of four with a quartet of magnificent fourth innings displays.

In the final part of this summer Test trilogy, though, South Africa brought England back down to earth.

Arriving to these shores for bilateral series for the first time since 2017, the Proteas promptly drew the One Day International series, won the T20 International series, and then thrashed England in the first Test.

Their innings win at Lord's came despite the tourists only making 326 from their own effort as England crumbled twice on the first and third days - although  undoubtedly, skipper Dean Elgar had made the best of a good toss.

Elgar had the chance to seal the series in the second match at Old Trafford after guessing correctly again - but, under slate grey Manchester skies, he bizarrely opted to bat.

By lunch, his team had been reduced to 77-5 - and, shortly after tea, they were all out for 151.

Predictably, England also struggled at first, and were reduced to 147-5, before Stokes (103) and wicketkeeper Ben Foakes (113*) both took charge.

England declared on 415-9 - and the fast-bowlers again made light work of South Africa to bowl them out for just 179.

Regrettably then, none of the matches resembled a close contest - yet it is far more regrettable that again South Africa will not play another Test in England for several years.

In fact, according to the 2023-27 Future Tours Programme - announced recently by the International Cricket Council (ICC) - the South Africans will only play the longest form of the game on 28 occasions in total during the next cycle.

Of course, much room in the cricket calendar is now dedicated to the glut of T20 leagues popping up around the world.

In particular, the monstrous IPL has been extended to 74 days between the last week of March and the first week of June, a period in which no meaningful international cricket will be played.

Meanwhile, the English Cricket Board (ECB) - in frustration at their missed opportunity of properly monetising a T20 competition - continues to ram the strange Hundred format down the throat of everyone.

Like the IPL, the Hundred will have its own window in August and likewise the Big Bash in Australia in January.

For the record, other short-form franchise tournaments are: the Pakistan Super League, the Caribbean Premier League, the Lanka Premier League, the Super Smash in New Zealand, the International League T20 in the United Arab Emirates, and the CSA T20, a new entrant from South Africa.

Now, in actual fact, proponents of the Test format can relax, or at least the fans of the so-called Big Three can - that is, Australia, England, and India - but, beyond those three countries, the rest of the world is being left behind.

The trio will all play five-match series against each other, a total of 30 matches - and, in the other 143 Tests planned for the cycle, 61 will feature one of them (42.6%).

Still more in peril than Test cricket is the future of the One Day International which threatens to become a forgotten format - despite the Cricket World Cup having been played on this basis since 1975.

England Test skipper Stokes retired from ODIs in July, and he made no secret of the reasoning behind his decision.

"Three formats are just unsustainable for me now... I feel that my body is letting me down because of the schedule and what is expected of us," he said.

Yet, only just over three years ago, he was part of the team which lifted the World Cup.

Of course, Stokes's decision is understandable from little more than a cursory glance at the calendar.

Next week, England's men begin their winter season with seven T20 Internationals against Pakistan ahead of three T20 matches against Australia.

Then, an international T20 World Cup is set to begin next month in Australia, less than 12 months since the previous tournament - and there is a further edition is scheduled for the summer of 2024.

In the meantime, before this year is out, England face the Aussies in three ODIs before a return to Pakistan for three Tests in December.

For sure, the relentless international cricket carousel never stops for long.

	ENGLAND v NEW ZEALAND •   England won the series 3-0
2-6 June	England 141 & 279-5 beat New Zealand 132 & 285 by five wickets • England run-rates: 3.29 & 3.54	Lord's
10-14 June	England 539 & 299-5 beat New Zealand 553 & 284 by five wickets • England run-rates: 4.20 & 5.98	Trent Bridge
23-27 June	England 360 & 296-3 beat New Zealand 329 & 326 by seven wickets • England run-rates: 5.37 & 5.45	Headingley
	ENGLAND v INDIA •   Series drawn 2-2
1-5 July	England 284 & 378-3 beat India 416 & 245 by seven wickets • England run rates: 4.62 & 4.93	Edgbaston
	ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICA •   England won the series 2-1
17-19 August	South Africa 326 beat England 165 & 149 by an innings and 12 runs • England run-rates: 3.67 & 3.96	Lord's
26-28 August	England 415-9d bt South Africa 151 & 179 by an innings and 85 runs • England run-rate: 3.89	Old Trafford
8-10 September	England 158 & 130-1 beat South Africa 118 & 169 by nine wickets • England run-rates: 4.35 & 5.78	The Oval

That was the week that was

👑

BRITAIN is still officially in mourning today following the death of Queen Elizabeth II at at age of 96 at Balmoral Castle on Thursday.

At 70 years and 214 days, Elizabeth II had the longest reign of any British monarch and the longest recorded of any female head of state in history.

Her death was announced by Buckingham Palace at 18:30 BST on 8 September 2022.

Immediately, upon that announcement, her eldest son - the former Prince Charles who is now King Charles III - was elevated to the throne.

And, yesterday, King Charles III was formally proclaimed as such at St James Palace in London with gun salutes fired in Hyde Park and at the Tower of London.

The night before, on Friday, His Majesty addressed the nation for the first time as King, and referred to his "darling Mama".

In his speech, he said: "As you begin your last great journey to join my dear late Papa, I want simply to say this: thank you.

"Thank you for your love and devotion to our family and to the family of nations you have served so diligently all these years. May ‘flights of angels sing thee to thy rest.’"

It is undeniable that Queen Elizabeth II lived a remarkable life. Born in 1926, a part of the Greatest Generation, she was a teenager while World War II raged.

Yet, already by then, her destiny had undergone a massive change. In 1936, her father King George VI unexpectedly acceded to the throne following abdication of his brother, King Edward VIII.

Suddenly, the then Princess Elizabeth had become the heir presumptive.

In February 1952, the Queen's father, King George VI, died of coronary thrombosis - and so, at the age of 25, Queen Elizabeth acceded to the throne.

Over a year later, on 2 June 1953 following a seven-month round-the-world tour which encompassed 13 countries and covered more than 40,000 miles, Her Majesty was coronated at Westminster Abbey.

Between her accession and her death, the Queen appointed 15 Prime Ministers, the last of which - Liz Truss - only took office on Tuesday (see below).

Undoubtedly then, the Queen enjoyed a life of privilege. Equally, though, Elizabeth II was clearly committed to her role right to the very end of her life.

As mentioned, it is not a position in life to which she was destined - and yet she performed her many duties with a great deal of decorum and dedication.

Nevertheless, this correspondent certainly would not describe himself as a Royalist.

Instinctively, the curious idea of a monarchy - though providing the background or often more than just the background to almost all of British history - surely would not be the starting point if a society were being built from scratch.

Also, the continued popular reference to the current Royal Family as The Firm is a discomforting mafia-like term - and the Royals themselves have done little to dispel it.

More recently, on this note, the extreme level of protection offered to Prince Andrew against the sex abuse allegations made about him in the United States hardly reflects well upon the Royal Family.

And, as far as the Americans are concerned, Prince Andrew does have a case to answer...

Beyond that, King Charles, while Prince, has not been slow to voice his opinion - and, through letters to ministers, effectively attempted tried to influence policy on matters as widespread as farming, urban planning, architecture, education, and even protecting the Patagonian toothfish.

Now, the King has the right to an opinion obviously - but the whole basis of British democracy is that the monarch does not get involved in any way in the political issues of the day.

The anathema that is the weekly meeting between the monarch and the Prime Minister will continue undoubtedly - and it seems unlikely the King and Ms Truss will merely discuss the weather or how the cricket is going.

Nevertheless, at this stage in history, supporters of a Republic in Britain need to accept the country is simply not going to wake up one day and have revolution.

Right now, there are far more obvious fights for those with left-wing politics to pick. For a start, the cost-of-living crisis thanks to a 12-year-long Conservative government.

Sadly, some of the responses on social media about the death of Queen Elizabeth II have done nothing except harm their cause.

After all, there is no need to indulge in flag-waving mania to respect the death of a great historical figure.

This has been a sad moment for the country. It is a moment which needs stillness, reflection, and mourning.

RIP Queen Elizabeth II (1926-2022), aged 96. Reign: 6 February 1952 to 8 September 2022.

PRIME MINISTERS IN THE REIGN OF QUEEN ELIZABETH II

Winston Churchill	Conservative	1951-1955
Anthony Eden	Conservative	1955-1957
Harold Macmillan	Conservative	1957-1963
Alec Douglas-Home	Conservative	1963-1964
Harold Wilson	Labour	1964-1970 1974-1976
Edward Heath	Conservative	1970-1974
James Callaghan	Labour	1976-1979
Margaret Thatcher	Conservative	1979-1991
John Major	Conservative	1991-1997
Tony Blair	Labour	1997-2007
Gordon Brown	Labour	2007-2010
David Cameron	Conservative	2010-2016
Theresa May	Conservative	2016-2019
Boris Johnson	Conservative	2019-2022
Elizabeth Truss	Conservative	2022-

EARLIER last week, Elizabeth Truss became the third new Conservative Prime Minister in just over six years after defeating Rishi Sunak in a fractious leadership election.

Ms Truss took 81,326 votes (57.4%) against Mr Sunak's tally of 60,399 (42.6%), and therefore became only the third woman to hold the highest office in United Kingdom politics after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May.

The announcement of Ms Truss as the new leader came as the House of Commons reconvened following its six-week summer recess.

In her victory speech, the 47-year-old said: “We shouldn’t be daunted by the challenges we face, as strong as the storm may be. I know that the British people are stronger.

“Our country was built by people who can get things done. We have huge reserves of talent, of energy, of determination. I am confident that together we can ride out the storm.

“We can rebuild our economy and we can become the modern, brilliant Britain I know we can be.”

Now, of course, the result itself was widely expected - even though Mr Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, had been more popular among the current cohort of Conservative MPs.

By contrast, Ms Truss only just squeaked past Penny Mordaunt in the last of those five votes held in Westminster between 13 July and 20 July.

Perhaps, though, it is easiest to sum up this contest with the conclusion that Mr Sunak's weaknesses were far greater than Ms Truss's strengths.

While Chancellor, Mr Sunak raised the tax burden on the UK to its highest level, as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, since the country was still in recovery from the Second World War in the 1950s.

This included an increase in the tax take from some of the poorest workers through a rise in National Insurance rate to 13.25%, a decision which broke a manifesto promise made in 2019.

A subsequent rise in the lower earnings threshold to £12,570, bringing it in line with the Personal Allowance for income tax, has eased the strain a little.

But, in March 2022, the Office for Budget Responsibility published a forecast which stated the UK population would suffer the "biggest fall in living standards on record".

And, just last month, consultancy firm Cornwall Insight warned that typical energy bills could hit £4,266 per year in 2023 - with the government regulator Ofgem also admitting there will be a steep rise.

In short then, Mr Sunak - even accounting for some difficult times during the COVID-19 pandemic - had a pretty poor record to defend.

After all, the 42-year-old Richmond (Yorks) MP, among other huge government splurges, authorised the outlay of £37 billion on a test-and-trace system which was not fit for purpose.

Certainly, that so-called magic money tree seemed to exist for the Conservatives - and their donors - at the most of convenient times.

Then again, Mr Sunak also failed because he ruined his reputation among some die-hard Tory members when he resigned as Chancellor and prompted the series of events which brought down Boris Johnson's premiership.

This was despite Mr Sunak having previously consistently defended Mr Johnson's behaviour - and, moreover, also been given a fixed penalty notice by the Metropolitan Police for a Partygate incident.

Ultimately, though, it was a similar narrative to when Ed Miliband was considered to have figuratively stabbed his brother David in the back by standing in - and then winning - the Labour leadership contest in 2010.

Now, Mr Sunak has learned the hard way that there is only so far that a sharp suit and cheesy smile can take you - whereas Ms Truss, by her own admission, is far more awkward in her presentation.

However, Ms Truss emphasised her working class upbringing in Paisley, Scotland and Roundhay, Leeds - and her self-perception that she succeeded in spite of the state education system rather than because of it.

Of course, the South West Norfolk MP - despite her unashamed efforts to embrace the same style as Mrs Thatcher - has always failed to mention she went to school in the 1980s when her idol was in charge.

Indeed, Ms Truss is a terribly twisted muddle of contradictions.

A former member of the Liberal Democrats as a teenager, Ms Truss declared yesterday: "I [have] campaigned as a Conservative and I will govern as a Conservative."

But, while it is fair enough to consider that a person's politics can change over time, there was certainly a far greater ungainliness in the more recent shift in Ms Truss's position from ardent Remainer to committed Brexiteer.

Furthermore, even during the course of this leadership campaign, there have been moments of baffling inconsistency.

On 2 August, Ms Truss announced a saving to the Treasury of £8.8 billion by pledging to cut the pay of public sector workers in roles outside of London and the south-east of England - then, less than 24 hours later, took the policy off the table.

Similarly, on the energy crisis, Ms Truss firstly appeared to rule out direct cash “handouts” as a way of helping people affected by the cost-of-living crisis - before, a few days later, her supporters again claimed her comments had been misinterpreted.

It brought to mind the quote which is commonly attributed to the comedian Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."

For the millions of people feeling the pinch already, though, their situation is no laughing matter - and now is certainly not the time for another Prime Minister who obfuscates on policy and avoids scrutiny.

At the moment, the opinion polls show Labour ahead - and some surveys have produced a lead which would result in the party gaining its first majority in a General Election since 2005.

Then again, Labour has been here before - most recently in 2012 and 2013 when, against the backdrop of the coalition government's policy of austerity, Mr Miliband enjoyed double-digit poll leads over David Cameron.

Of course, the political landscape now is completely different now compared to what it was like a decade ago, on several counts.

Back then, support for the Lib Dems was massively in decline whereas, at present, they are advancing again against the Conservative in seats in the south and south-west of England.

Also, around 10 years ago, Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party were still polling relatively handsomely, regularly at around 15% and sometimes higher.

But, with Brexit done, the vast majority of these votes are already back in the Tories' column.

The good news for Ms Truss is that only a small percentage of the 2019 Conservative vote has switched directly to Labour - and there is certainly no massive swathe of excitement at the prospect of a government led by Sir Keir Starmer.

For now, Mr Starmer remains cautious, and this timidity is neatly demonstrated by the extent of his own energy policy which would prevent the energy price cap rising through this winter - but which provides no long-term strategic vision beyond this.

Instead, a far more significant proportion of the 2019 Conservative supporters has simply withdrawn their vote altogether.

The great unknown is whether this withdrawal of support will persist at the next general election or whether this period marks the return of the "shy Tory" factor.

In 1992 and 2015 elections, the Conservatives pulled off surprise majorities by tapping into this latent source of votes - and perhaps the ranks of the undecided are waiting to see just how Ms Truss will fair inside Number 10.

Undoubtedly, though, the apathy among Conservatives right now is very real, with more than 30,000 members opting not to cast a ballot for either candidate.

As such, Ms Truss was elected on the back of the support of less than 32% of her own MPs in the fifth ballot and less than half (47.1%) of her own party members.

Even without taking into account the miniscule size of the overall electorate in comparison to the country as a whole, it really is not much of a mandate.

CONSERVATIVE PARTY CABINET

	Elected	Constituency	Department
Elizabeth Truss	2010	South West Norfolk	Prime Minister
Kwasi Kwarteng	2010	Spelthorne	Chancellor of the Exchequer
James Cleverly	2015	Braintree	Foreign Office
Suella Braverman	2015	Fareham	Home Office
Therese Coffey	2010	Suffolk Coastal	Health | Deputy Prime Minister
Ben Wallace	2005	Wyre and Preston North	Defence
Kit Malthouse	2015	North West Hampshire	Education
Brandon Lewis	2010	Great Yarmouth	Justice
Nadhim Zahawi	2010	Stratford-on-Avon	Equalities
Simon Clarke	2017	Middlesbrough S and E Cleveland	Housing and Communities
Jacob Rees-Mogg	2010	North East Somerset	Business and Energy
Alok Sharma	2010	Reading West	President of COP26
Kemi Badenoch	2017	Saffron Walden	International Trade
Chloe Smith	2009	Norwich North	Work and Pensions
Ranil Jayawardena	2015	North East Hampshire	Environment, Food, Rural Affairs
Anne-Marie Trevelyan	2015	Berwick-upon-Tweed	Transport
Chris Heaton-Harris	2010	Daventry	Northern Ireland
Alister Jack	2017	Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland
Sir Robert Buckland	2010	South Swindon	Wales
Michelle Donelan	2015	Chippenham	Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Lord Nicholas True	-	-	Leader of the House of Lords
Penny Mordaunt	2010	Portsmouth North	Leader of the House of Commons
Jake Berry	2010	Rossendale and Darwen	Party Chairman