Glastonbury 2025: Work hard, play harder

GLASTONBURY Festival provided for an altogether different experience in 2025 even though this was my eighth visit to Worthy Farm.

This year, for the first time, I volunteered as an Oxfam steward, taking on three eight-hour shifts - and, as such, I felt an even more heightened sense of anticipatory anxiety ahead of the Festival than usual.

What if I quite frankly was not fit enough to do a full week in a tent? What if I was rubbish at what I was being asked to do?

What if it rained all week and I just could not hack being damp and miserable for that long?

But I really needn't have worried - particularly with regards to any prospect of a washout.

WORK HARD

OXFAM requires its volunteers to arrive at Glastonbury Festival by Tuesday at the latest - and, better still, by Monday evening.

Therefore, I booked the 11:31 train from Newcastle to arrive at Castle Cary - the nearest station to the Festival site - at 18:14 on Monday 23 June.

An early problem presented itself at Doncaster where my connecting Hull Trains service to London Kings Cross was cancelled as a result of industrial action - and so I hastily gathered all of my stuff on the platform and reboarded my initial train all the way to the capital.

In London, I diverted from the direct route between Kings Cross and Paddington to buy some tent pegs on Tottenham Court Road - and so it was only once I boarded the service to Somerset that I was able to feel a little more relaxed about everything.

From Castle Cary, I bit the bullet and took a rather expensive taxi to Blue Gate near the Oxfield but gladly made it on time to register.

There, I received my all-important luminous tabard, my briefing pack including my shift times, my ID lanyard and wristbands, and my meal and shower vouchers.

My shift times and areas were confirmed as follows:

• Wednesday 25 June - Pedestrian Gate A - 05:45-14:00
• Thursday 26 June - Vehicle Gate 5 - 13:45-22:00
• Saturday 28 June - Pedestrian Gate D - 21:45-06:00

In short, I had hit the jackpot!

These were great shifts to be allocated with two of them completed even before the main stages kicked off and an overnight stint during which the only significant artist appearances were the Saturday night headliners.

For the rest of Monday, I took a whistle-stop wander around bits of the site before, tired from the long journey from the North East, I got myself cozied up in my sleeping bag for my first night in a week of tent-dwelling.

At that stage, my mind was still racing about just what I had let myself in for - but an entertaining, though mandatory, hour-long briefing - delivered on Tuesday at 3pm - provided some guidance and reassurance.

During the briefing, we learned about the different roles to be undertaken, the security features of the various tickets, and the support available to us.

However, there was a disappointing lack of specific information about working on Vehicle Gates (see shift 2 below).

Nevertheless, we were advised that a far more detailed briefing would be delivered by a supervisor at the start of each of our shifts during which our exact roles would be allocated.

The remainder of Tuesday was unquestionably a time to try and relax, and I made a quick tour of a few of the crew bars available to staff and volunteers before the Festival gates open such as Maceos, the Tow and Hitch, and a couple of others.

Still, I returned to the tent around 10pm for a responsibly early night ahead of my first ever work at Glastonbury Festival, starting at 5.45am!

Shift 1 - Wednesday 25 June
at Pedestrian Gate A - 05:45-14:00

Now, anyone who has ever known me will be aware that my attendance at a pre-6am shift was almost a miraculous effort in itself.

However, I quickly realised that this was the place to be for my first ever shift. Pedestrian Gate A almost always attracts the television cameras and Glastonbury glitterati for its proximity to the Festival bus station.

Allocated a standard ticket-checking and scanning role, there was palpable feeling of nerves and excitement ahead of the official opening of the gates shortly before 8am.

And then came a real lump-in-the-throat moment as Emily Eavis helped her father Michael out of a vehicle in a wheelchair to acknowledge the crowds as a small band played the theme from Chariots of Fire.

Thereafter, it was down to work - except it did not really feel like work to offer a warm welcome to everyone who had waited so patiently outside.

The shift was notable for one runner who appeared to evade Security - and a couple of other punters who, without the correct credentials, were dealt with effectively.

But, while part of the role of the Oxfam steward was to be on the lookout for anything that did not look or feel right, most of the eight hours passed by steadily, with only the sharply-rising temperature beyond midday causing any sort of discomfort.

The end of the first shift produced a little surge of confidence in myself - and I knew, after a decent rest, that I could enjoy the rest of Wednesday in the knowledge that I had done my bit to get the party started...

Shift 2 - Thursday 26 June
at Vehicle Gate 5 - 13:45-22:00

From a busy Pedestrian Gate on Wednesday to a nearby busy Vehicle Gate on the following afternoon - this was a rather different, and initially extremely confusing, experience as a team of four of us managed two lanes of traffic heading into the Festival.

My senses were heightened by the constant hum of idling engines as they waited at the checkpoint with some larger vehicles - trucks and tour buses, most notably - having kicked up a lot of dust on yet another scorching afternoon.

For sure, there was a different type of clientele on this shift than the excited punters on the day prior with the arrival instead of loads of production staff, delivery workers as well as site worker and hospitality tickets.

Performers and their guests were also beginning to arrive - including Joe Goddard of Hot Chip and some friends of the Alabama 3 - though presumably the Oxfam volunteers over the weekend had the opportunity to be a little more star-struck.

In another notable difference to the Pedestrian Gate, though, the Vehicle Gate had its own dedicated staff - and dealt with some of the tickets themselves.

Nevertheless, there was still no shortage of stubbing and scanning of EPOs for us volunteers.

Following a late break, the remainder of the shift brought the far more laidback responsibility of liaising with the Security staff and literally using a blue marker pen to write the number of occupants of a vehicle on its windscreen.

But, as the last of the evening sunshine disappeared behind the treeline and the temperature cooled, the end of the shift was a welcome feeling especially as there was now almost 48 hours to indulge in the Festival as a punter.

Shift 3 - Saturday 28 June
at Pedestrian Gate D - 21:45-06:00

Fully into the swing of the Festival by this point - and on an emotional high following the glorious performance of Pulp on the Pyramid Stage - the overnight shift had the reputation for providing its own challenges.

Notably, depending on exactly where you are stationed, I was warned that the shift would drag if there were not a lot of people to deal with.

Moreover, it would have the potential to seem even longer if the temperature dropped significantly as is often the case in the Mendip Hills even at the very height of the summer.

As such, I took a jumper, wore my warm, waterproof trousers and three pairs of socks and mentally prepared myself for a long night.

Instead, cloud cover ensured the night remained mild with little to no breeze - and, although I decided on my break that I still needed my jumper for the second half of the shift, there was little time to think about anything else.

From towards the end of the headliners at around 11pm, it was a remarkably busy shift as a steady stream of people - in varying states of drunkeness and joy - passed through the Gate D throughout the whole of the night right until 6am.

Hopefully they all remembered their Pass Outs for re-entry on Sunday - though, in reality by 6am, my own thoughts had rather drifted to dropping off for a full morning of sleep to a soundtrack of light drizzle against the canvas of the tent.

Still, before I hit the sack, I embraced my good friend Jonathan for prompting this opportunity to attend Glastonbury which never would have been possible without his regular gentle arm twists.

Work for the weekend was now completely over - and once again the whole of the Festival was ours to enjoy! 

PLAY HARDER

Wednesday and Thursday

I really scored on my Oxfam shifts which effectively offered the opportunity to have fun on all the major nights of the festival between Wednesday and Sunday, except for the overnight Saturday. 

Additionally, there was plenty of time for fun throughout Friday, on Saturday afternoon, and the whole of Sunday. 

Back to Wednesday - and, with the majority of the attendees having arrived, the Pyramid hosted its first Opening Ceremony since 1990 as the acrobats and jugglers from the Theatre and Circus area took centre stage at 10pm.

Sadly, their technically-outstanding show was something out of a damp squib, suited to a much smaller audience than that which appeared in the Pyramid field with little else on around the site.

Without a music licence on the main stages until Friday, the audience was encouraged themselves to participate by humming and providing vocals. 

However, a lack of clear messaging left the crowd largely oblivious to what they were meant to be doing and the sense of bafflement led to the show itself not getting the attention which it deserved. 

Instead, approximately 24 hours later on Thursday, a far more engaging - albeit completely unofficial ceremony - took place on the Sensation Seekers stage thanks to the excellent Oh My God, It's The Church.

A downpour of mild rain - or waam waata - fell from the Heavens provided no great discomfort - and merely added to the atmosphere being generated by band preacher Michael Alabama Jackson. 

This rain was indeed the only time that the festival site got a bit of a soaking - and was one which made pretty much no impression on the parched ground.

By contrast, Oh My God, It's The Church made a brilliant impact as usual, though - and provided a key message for all to follow throughout the remainder of the weekend. 

The remainder of Thursday night brought a true Glastonbury pursuit of largely directionless bimbling in search of something foot-tapping, enchanting or both. 

We found it in the Toad Hole in the Green Fields where the Berlin-based psychedelic outfit Tolstoys livened everyone up in a joyous hour to wrap up this particular chapter. 

Friday

In an unexpectedly sprightly start to Friday, I made my way back to Pyramid for the opening act proper on the stage as Supergrass started things off with their up-tempo brand of Britpop.

Irish singer-songwriter CMAT followed and showed beauty truly lies in the eye of the beholder with an engaging performance.

From there, I headed straight back to the Britpop 1990s for the searingly underrated York-based band Shed Seven who recaptured that bittersweet era with their anthemic hits Going For Gold and Chasing Rainbows.

Already on target to be one of my favourite sets of the weekend, the frontman of Elvana capped it off by randomly turning up halfway through and joining Rick Witter for a duet of Suspicious Minds. It was wonderful stuff.

Frantic Friday then stepped up yet another gear as Lewis Capaldi made a previously unconfirmed emotional return to complete the 35 minutes of the set which he had been forced to abandon in 2023.

A quick blast of early-2000s post-punk from Franz Ferdinand on Other Stage included an unexpected twist as the other Capaldi - former Thick Of It and Doctor Who actor Peter - made a guest appearance to duet on Take Me Out with Alex Kapranos.

Then it was back to the Pyramid for the awesome and angsty-as-ever Alanis Morrisette. 

The Canadian delighted the main stage by recapturing the iconic soundtrack for so many 1990s teenagers with Hand In My Pocket, Hands Clean, You Learn, Ironic (of course), and You Oughta Know, before finishing - appropriately enough - on Thank U. 

Next was a first trip up the hill to the Park Stage where Self Esteem supplied a welcome chilled-out vibe - though, disappointingly at times, seemed more interested in creating something special for her audience on TikTok than the one right in front of her. 

Then again, perhaps I am just getting a bit old and grumpy about this sort of thing - especially in red-hot weather. 

Saturday

After being frazzled throughout Friday - and with my shift coming at the end of the day - I was fairly unambitious with my Saturday plans and so missed the return of the Kaiser Chiefs to Pyramid. 

Instead, buoyed by some extra rest, I made my way to the Acoustic tent for the first time for a heartfelt tribute to Bob Dylan - my dad's favourite artist and mine too. 

A collection of Dylan aficionados, including veteran folkie Ralph McTell, combined to contribute a couple of songs each - though there were one too many obscure tunes and McTell sang his entries like he was going to burst out any second into his famed Streets of London.

Nevertheless, to finish, the troupe prompted a really emotional moment between myself and my friend John - a true Dylan fanatic - with 1967 song I Shall Be Released. 

From the legend of Dylan to Pyramid for a true pioneer of rock-n-roll John Fogerty - and the former Creedence Clearwater Revival frontman was in fine fettle, celebrating his recent success in regaining the global publishing rights to his band's songs following a 50-year legal battle. 

Mystery band Patchwork was next on Pyramid - though, when Pulp's Jarvis Cocker bounded on stage in his inimitable style, there was a sense of relief, rather than surprise. 

In perhaps the worst kept secret of all-time, Patchwork was indeed Pulp - and, restricted to an hour, had to squeeze in all of their hits - Disco 2000, Do You Remember The First Time?, Mis-Shapes, Babies, and more. 

There was little-to-no filler - and the set concluded with the anthemic Common People as the Red Arrows roared overhead on cue. 

With the entertainment curtailed by work, this potentially iconic Glastonbury moment was a spectacular way to head into shift - and nothing on Sunday really promised to match it. 

Sunday

Nothing did, as it happens - but, with all my shifts completed, it was still a fantastically fun day. 

The Libertines on Pyramid promised a riotous start - but, as well as a relatively early set time counting against Pete Doherty, Carl Barat et al, their undoubtedly necessary mellowing unsurprisingly means that I no longer hear the music in the same way as I did at the peak of the band's powers. 

 

Elsewhere, on the Avalon stage, there was better news as the Horne Section - fronted by the genuinely clever humourist Alex Horne - furnished this adorable corner of the festival with an hour-full of genuine belly laughs. 

Then, next of course, came Rod Stewart in the fabled Sunday afternoon Legends' slot on Pyramid.

"If you want my body, and you think I'm sexy" crooned the 80-year-old midway through his set - not really Rod thought the vast majority of the crowd, surely.

At least, though, Sailing - a reliable set-closer if ever there was one - genuinely went down a storm. 

Instead, I was far more enthused by the appearance of Nile Rodgers and Chic in the following set - and, as always, the New Yorker had the Pyramid field on their feet for a boogie.

Legendary songwriter and producer for the likes of Diana Ross, David Bowie, Madonna and more recently Daft Punk among many others, Rodgers really is a must-watch at a big Festival to make you forget about tired feet. 

Would The Prodigy without the glorious Keith Flint still be worth a watch was a big question of mine on Sunday night?

The answer unquestionably was affirmative - the music and the light show was as good as ever, and a stunning show from the Braintree act set the vibes just right for Sunday night. 

The feelgood factor continued back on Avalon where The Alabama 3 had their audience in the palm of their hands - and there was still more fun at The Levels in the Silver Hayes area where Groove Armarda drew a huge crowd.

Now, at 3am on Monday morning, the festival was over for many - but, in what is fast becoming a bit of a Glastonbury tradition, the final night does not feel as if it is over until the New York Brass Band have sounded out their final note.

Chugging back a Guinness from the can at 5am while bouncing around in a busy and friendly crowd - this truly had been another Glastonbury Festival which had the absolute maximum of fun joyfully squeezed out. 

More than that, though, this will always be an especially memorable visit to Worthy Farm for me as, for the first time, I can say that I made a genuine contribution to the running of this huge operation. 

Better still, I can say that I made my contribution with pride - and, even better again, volunteering with Oxfam added to my experience, rather than detracting from it - even if it was pretty hard graft at times.

OTHER GLASTONOTES

Headliners

As always, it was a Glastonbury Festival involving some firsts - and, notably on this occasion, this was the first edition in which I did not see a single minute of any of the headliners on Pyramid stage. 

Apologies can be offered to Neil Young and the Chrome Hearts who I would have seen if I had not been on shift. 

However, by all accounts, The 1975 - a painfully overrated band, in my opinion - unsurprisingly gave an underwhelming performance. Meanwhile, at the tender age of 22, it is a wonder that Olivia Rodrigo had enough songs to fill the 90-minute slot.

Then again, Glastonbury is about so much more than the headliners - and I am no doubt just getting a bit old and grumpy. 

Politics

Glastonbury Festival is an inherently political place - it always has been and hopefully it always will be. Notably this year, there was a couple of excellent tributes of the 40th anniversary of the Battle of Beanfield in the Green Fields and the South East Corner - read more here. 

More notably, two artists - Kneecap and Bob Vylan - made the biggest headlines of the festival in the print media, at least. 

For the record, I went to neither of the sets - Bob Vylan clashed with the Songs of Bob Dylan on Acoustic while hip hop act Kneecap isn't my vibe, and I wasn't interested in going along for the sake of it. 

Bob Vylan in particular were strongly criticised for leading a chant of "Death, death to the IDF [Israel "Defense" Force]" - but, while I agree with Emily Eavis's statement that Glastonbury Festival should be used as a positive force for change, "Death to the IDF" on an organisational level - and a complete reassessment by the Israeli government of its values - is simply a must if there is ever going to be peace in the Middle East given its ongoing murderous action. 

Certainly, if I were in the UK government, I know which one I would be more disgusted by. 

Crowds

With a capacity well in excess of 200,000, much has been made about crowd management at the festival - and there have been some past mistakes by the organisers, in 2024 in particular, where relatively large-name acts ended up on stages which were far too small for them. 

In response, there was a slight drop in capacity this year - but, to be honest, the well-publicised reduction made no noticeable difference to me. After all, a few thousand less is a drop in the ocean in Glastonbury terms, and there was not a noticeable difference to the naked eye. 

Nevertheless, communications on the official app in particular were better than ever with specific and timely information given about which acts were likely to reach capacity. Matrix signs for the raucous overnight South East Corner were similarly informative. 

Now, it is always going to be extremely difficult to manage crowds at an event with the size of Glastonbury Festival - but it is clear from the vast improvement in comms that Emily Eavis and team have listened to concerns and are doing their best to manage some extremely difficult situations. 

Litter

Related to the above, the sheer size of Glastonbury Festival inevitably means there will be some "unintentional" littering - stuff left in a genuine emergency and empty cans which unknowingly fall out of pockets, for example. 

However, the amount of litter around the festival site cannot all be down to accidents - and indeed I have witnessed punters stamp on their can to flatten it then leave it on the ground. 

There are plenty of bins available so there is genuinely no excuse - and, even when the receptacles are overflowing, the waste will no doubt be collected more easily if it is propped up against the bins.

Truly, the festival is blessed by the litter-pickers and recycling crew - and I am aware that this is a societal issue, rather than something which is specific to Glastonbury. 

Nevertheless, Glastonbury punters and the festival itself really should be held up as a standard-bearer for this sort of thing - and the Love The Farm, Leave No Trace message can sound rather hollow sometimes.

The return of Trump

KAMALA HARRIS	226	🗽	312	DONALD TRUMP
Dist. of Columbia DC (3)	Colorado CO (10)	Wisconsin WI (10)	Nebraska-01 NE-01 (1)	Mississippi MS (6)
Vermont VT (3)	Connecticut CT (7)	Georgia GA (16)	Texas TX (40)	Tennessee TN (11)
Hawaii HI (4)	New York NY (28)	Michigan MI (15)	Arkansas AK (3)	Alabama AL (9)
Massachusettes MA (11)	Maine ME (2)	North Carolina NC (16)	Kansas KS (6)	Arkansas AR (6)
Maine-01 ME-01 (1)	Illinois IL (19)	Pennsylvania PA (19)	Missouri MO (10)	Kentucky KY (8)
Maryland MD (10)	New Mexico NM (5)	Arizona AZ (11)	South Carolina SC (9)	South Dakota SD (3)
Washington WA (12)	New Jersey NJ (14)	Nevada NV (6)	Indiana IN (11)	Oklahoma OK (7)
California CA (54)	Virginia VA (13)	Maine-02 ME-02 (1)	Montana MT (10)	Idaho ID (4)
Delaware DE (3)	Minnesota (10)	Ohio OH (17)	Utah UT (6)	North Dakota ND (3)
Oregon OR (8)	Nebraska-02 NE-02 (1)	Florida FL (30)	Louisiana LA (8)	West Virgina (4)
Rhode Island RI (4)	New Hampshire (4)	Iowa (6)	Nebraska NE (2)	Wyoming (3)
		Flipped states in BOLD		Nebraska-03 NE-03 (1)

US ELECTIONS 2024

DONALD TRUMP will return to the White House in January after sweeping all seven key swing states to take an unexpectedly comfortable victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election.

Mr Trump flipped the three Rust Belt states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - back into the Republican column while he also regained Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and held North Carolina to finish on 312 Electoral Votes.

In his victory speech, Mr Trump declared: "This was a movement like nobody’s ever seen before - and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. 

"There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond."

On a great night for the Grand Old Party, the Republicans also retook the Senate with gains in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia - and then completed a powerful trifecta in Washington DC by retaining its narrow control of the House of Representatives. 

Undoubtedly then, all of this makes for extremely sobering viewing for the Democratic Party of incumbent President Joe Biden and its 2024 candidate Ms Harris.

But Mr Trump's victory this time did not register quite the same level of shock as his victorious emergence on the political scene in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton. 

After all, the Democrats were defending a pretty weak position and made it even worse by sticking with the clearly ailing Mr Biden for far too long.

The final straw for Mr Biden came in the first presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia on 27 June, in which the President was criticised, even by some of his own supporters, for providing rambling and incoherent responses. 

So it was to the great surprise of nobody that President Biden formally dropped out of the race on 21 July. 

Vice President Ms Harris was hastily left to pick up the pieces - although, by the time she officially accepted the Democratic nomination on 5 August, there were only 92 days until polling day.

Yet there was genuine initial hope - though it was perhaps also blind hope - that Ms Harris might be able to pull off victory.

After all, the much-speculated Republican red wave in the midterm elections in 2022 never really emerged - and much of the reasoning behind that was the surge in young female voters following the effective repeal by the Republican-leaning Supreme Court of abortion protection under Roe v Wade. 

However, abortion was ultimately rated as the most important issue in the general election by only 14% of all voters, well behind the economy which was cited by 32%. 

Now, Mr Trump actually inherits a growing economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product - but GDP will have meant very little to the average person in the critical Rust Belt states. 

Instead, high inflation early in Mr Biden's term meant voters had seen his or her basic food and gas prices increase significantly over the past four years.

"It's the economy stupid" was the mantra of the Bill Clinton campaign upon his election in 1992 following a similar period of high inflation - and there is no reason why such a fundamental element of politics will have changed. 

Border security was another issue with which the Democrats struggled to convince after official figures confirmed a record number of 2.2 million unauthorised southern border crossings into the United States in 2022.

There was little solace either to be found for the Democrats in terms of their foreign policy record with the start in the collapse of Mr Biden's approval ratings in August 2021 coinciding with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan which resembled the Fall of Saigon at the conclusion of the Vietnam War in 1975.

Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine has largely ground to a bloody stalemate - and, to cap it all, the Middle East has exploded once again into a scene of death and destruction with the American-backed Israelis indulging in a collective punishment of the Palestinian people following the appalling Hamas terrorist attacks on 7 October 2023.

For his part, Mr Trump inevitably produced plenty of rabble-rousing while staying short on detail - and indeed the key moment during his campaign arrived unexpectedly at an open-air rally in Butler, Pennsylvania during which he was subject to an assassination attempt. 

It produced one of the most notable political photographs of recent times - and, having survived, it seemed only to add further to the resolve of Mr Trump and his supporters. 

Unsurprisingly, there has already been a ton of articles forewarning the devastating things which now will occur upon Mr Trump's return to the White House - but history suggests a far less dramatic turn of events. 

After all, Mr Trump will be 82 years old by the end of the term, and spent much of his first stint playing golf or involving himself in all-too-frequent and largely pointless personality clashes. 

There were also two federal government shutdowns, despite the Republicans also controlling Congress, as Mr Trump's agenda was far from merely waved through. 

It is not yet clear if an ageing Mr Trump will be more committed to the day-in, day-out business of running a government. 

Unquestionably, though, this was a truly devastating loss for the Democrats - worse than the 2016 defeat which came down to a narrow Electoral College loss based on a handful of votes in a few places. 

Instead, this time, Mr Trump - despite being outspent by $1.2 billion to $750 million - won pretty convincingly, and became only the second Republican (after George W Bush in 2004) to win the popular vote since George Bush Snr in 1988.

Mr Trump improved his standing across the board - with black voters, Latinos, and young voters - as the United States actually became somewhat less racially divided by party. 

By contrast, Ms Harris underperformed recent previous Democratic candidates in virtually every county including the Latino-heavy Miami Dade in Florida which Mr Trump won by 10%, having lost it to Mrs Clinton in 2016 by 30%.

The likes of Florida, Iowa and Ohio - all of which were considered to be in the toss-up category at the turn of the Millennium - are now firmly Red states, while Ms Harris was reduced to single-digit wins even in Democratic strongholds like Illinois, Minnesota, and New Jersey. 

To be honest then, the return of Mr Trump felt inevitable - and, having been ousted from office so convincingly, the greatest concern for the Democrats really now should be over who and what comes after him. 

General Election 2024 results: Labour wins a "Loveless Landslide"

LABOUR returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a mathematically mind-boggling majority at the 2024 General Election.

Sir Keir Starmer's party took 411 seats, a gain of 209, in a massive victory which almost matched the majority won by Tony Blair in 1997.

But, in a result which has already been termed a "Loveless Landslide", Labour received less than 10 million votes and took just a 33.8% share overall.

That was only modestly up on the 32.1% share received by Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn - who actually received more votes due to the higher turnout four-and-a-half years ago.

Back then, Mr Corbyn led Labour to its worst result in terms of seats since 1935 by piling up thousands of unnecessary additional votes in already rock-solid safe seats.

This time, though, Mr Starmer's broader appeal has resulted in the Labour vote being far more evenly spread across the United Kingdom with such a level of efficiency that any attempt to analyse the outcome using a traditional swingometer was rendered completely useless.

Overall, there was a 10.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour at this election, something which would have resulted in a hung parliament if the movement of votes had been the same across all of the constituencies.

However, that did not happen because, whereas previously the swing change has been pretty evenly matched between Labour gain and Conservative loss (or vice-versa), the swing this time could be almost solely attributed to the collapse in the Tories' vote share.

Indeed, any sort of analysis must begin with the obvious conclusion that this was the most visceral repudiation of the Conservative Party since its formation in 1834.

Frankly, the results of this General Election made the 1997 collapse look like a grand day out, as they received a record-low share of the vote (23.7%) and finished with 121 seats, another record low.

No fewer than 11 Cabinet ministers lost their seats - another record - including Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Perhaps none of these was quite on par with the Portillo moment in 1997, though.

Instead, that belonged to Jacob Rees-Mogg who was roundly defeated who was defeated in North East Somerset and Hanham by Dan Norris of Labour.

Or, more likely still, it was the unceremonious deposing of former Prime Minister Liz Truss whose reluctance to go on stage for her result led to a round of slow handclaps.

Ms Truss - who had a record-short tenure of 49 days as Prime Minister and infamously failed to outlast a lettuce - was defeated in the South West Norfolk constituency by Terry Jermy of Labour on a 26.2% swing. 

Meanwhile, the seats of three other former Conservative Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May - in Witney, Henley and Thame, and Maidenhead respectively - all returned a Liberal Democrat MP.

For the record, none of those former PMs was standing - but the turnover symbolised another big theme of the results of this election: the return of the Lib Dems.

In taking 72 seats, the Lib Dems will hold their biggest representation at the House of Commons since the party was founded in 1988, and the highest number by any Liberal party since 1923.

Yet, they also saw only a modest increase in their vote share - up by 0.6% on 2019 when the party comprised of just 11 MPs and then-leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

Undoubtedly, the sharp increase can be attributed to two main factors, in addition to the Conservative collapse.

The first is a ruthless targeting of potential seats and the intentional disproportionate pouring of funds and resources in those constituencies.

Secondly, the Lib Dems benefited from tactical voting as primarily Labour voters lended their vote in order to see a Conservative opponent beaten.

In fairness to the Lib Dems, the extent of tactical voting is often overstated - and, even in their south west heartland where they made many of their gains, Labour also did historically well and won all sorts of seats which it has never held before.

Now, it is not particularly remarkable that the Conservatives hold no seats in the north east or Cumbria, or that they have been wiped out altogether in Wales.

However, the fact that the Tories have just four MPs in Devon and none at all in Cornwall is noteworthy.

Indeed, it has had the effect of reducing the Conservative representation to suburbs of London and Birmingham, and some remaining true blue constituencies in rural parts of Yorkshire and the south.

Meanwhile, across the country, the Conservatives faced a further wholly different type of opponent in a significant change to the 2019 election.

In 2019, Nigel Farage - then as leader of the Brexit Party - was satisfied by the offer made by Conservative leader Mr Johnson to "get Brexit done", and stood down candidates in seats which the Tories were defending to prevent a split in the right-wing vote.

This time, there was no such deal between Mr Farage and the Tory leader Mr Sunak - and the Reform Party responded by biting huge chunks out of the Conservative vote all around the country.

Lee Anderson retained Ashfield, having originally won it for the Conservatives in 2019, former leader Richard Tice took Boston and Skegness, former Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe gained Great Yarmouth, and the far less heralded James McMurdock won South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The big news, though, was the entry into Parliament for the first time by Mr Farage - who, at the eighth attempt to gain a seat at Westminster, finally won in Clacton.

Beyond those constituencies, Reform finished second in 98 seats, wreaking havoc primarily upon the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to achieve a whole slew of narrow victories.

As such, the 2024 General Election result exposed the truly perverse nature of the First Past The Post system.

For, while Labour, on average, picked up one seat for around every 23,000 votes, Reform took 823,000 votes for each MP.

Now, pure proportional representation (PR) has its own inherent weakness in that it encourages individual parties to take an approach in thinking which is far too narrow merely so that they can secure votes from their base.

Meanwhile, studies into the Alternative Vote (AV) - already rejected thoroughly in a referendum in 2011 - showed that it had the potential to produce outcomes which were even less proportionate than First Past The Post (FPTP).

Perhaps then, the solution lies in the Additional-Member System (AMS) which is familiar to voters in Scotland and Wales as it is used to elect the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

AMS - like the current FPTP system - has a constituency vote first of all so that there is still a clear link between the public and its local representative.

In contrast to FPTP, though, AMS has a second set of votes - these are divided by the number of constituencies won on the first ballot, therefore parties with fewer seats in that first ballot benefit in the second set by taking more top-up seats.

There are, of course, still more seats available on the first ballot conducted under FPTP; however the second ballot has the effect of making a legislature far more representative of the overall votes than a FPTP-only election.

Undoubtedly, Labour will argue - with good reason - that there are far more pressing issues surrounding the state of public services after 14 years of Tory rule.

But the democratic deficit in the British system is a major issue in itself in that it feeds bitterness and cynicism which then naturally extends to perceptions about government action, or a lack of it, on matters like immigration.

Yet it is not just Reform on the right wing from which Labour will come under pressure, based on these election results.

Former leader Mr Corbyn - suspended by Labour after asserting that the scale of antisemitism in the party had been overstated for political reasons - stood instead as an independent and, with a huge personal vote of 24,120, retained the Islington North seat which he has held since 1983.

Elsewhere, the Green Party may only have taken four seats - but that is still quadruple of the previous representation based upon on a slither of the media interest afforded to Reform.

Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay were elected in Bristol Central and Waveney Valley - and it is hoped by Green supporters that, through their dual presence, they can increase the profile of the party while also moving on from the Caroline Lucas era.

Meanwhile, Mr Starmer's predictably cautious approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict undoubtedly cost him several seats as four independent Muslim candidates - Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, and Ayoub Khan - won in Leicester South, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Batley, and Birmingham Perry Barr.

Normally, a huge majority would leave a leader with little concern over fringe issues - and at least there should be little noise from the Scottish National Party in the next term after it was reduced from 48 seats into single figures on nine.

But, while Mr Starmer has hundreds of seats in the House of Commons, he also has a low personal popularity ratings and a lack of mandate outside of the Westminster bubble.

As such, the new government will need to make a significant early impact to avoid coming under pressure from an impatient and an increasingly electorally volatile British public.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Labour majority of 172

	SCOREBOARD	Seats	Diff	Votes%	Diff%
•	Labour	411	(+209)	33.8%	(+1.7%)
•	Conservatives	121	(-244)	23.7%	(-19.9%)
•	Lib Dems	72	(+61)	12.2%	(+0.6%)
•	Scottish Nationals	9	(-39)	2.5%	(-1.3%)
•	Green Party	4	(+3)	6.8%	(+4.1%)
•	Reform Party	5	(+5)	14.3%	(+12.3%)
•	Plaid Cymru	4	(-)	0.7%	(+0.2%)
•	Others	24	(+5)	5.4%

Turnout 59.9% (-7.4%)

EXIT POLL • CON 131 • LAB 410 • LD 61 • RFM 13 • SNP 10 • OTH 25

EAST MIDLANDS
Amber Valley - Ashfield - Bassetlaw - Bolsover - Boston and Skegness - Broxtowe - Chesterfield - Corby and East Northamptonshire - Daventry - Derby North - Derby South - Derbyshire Dales - Erewash - Gainsborough - Gedling - Grantham and Bourne - Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - High Peak - Hinckley and Bosworth - Kettering - Leicester East - Leicester South - Leicester West - Lincoln - Loughborough - Louth and Horncastle - Mansfield - Melton and Syston - Mid Derbyshire - Mid Leicestershire - Newark - North East Derbyshire - North West Leicestershire - Northampton North - Northampton South - Nottingham East - Nottingham North and Kimberley - Nottingham South - Rushcliffe - Rutland and Stamford - Sherwood Forest - Sleaford and North Hykeham - South Derbyshire - South Holland and The Deepings - South Leicestershire - South Northamptonshire - Wellingborough and Rushden

EAST
Basildon and Billericay - Bedford - Braintree - Brentwood and Ongar - Broadland and Fakenham - Broxbourne - Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Cambridge - Castle Point - Central Suffolk and North Ipswich - Chelmsford - Clacton - Colchester - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard - Ely and East Cambridgeshire - Epping Forest - Great Yarmouth - Harlow - Harpenden and Berkhamsted - Harwick and North Essex - Hemel Hempstead - Hertford and Stortford - Hertsmere - Hitchin - Huntingdon - Ipswich - Lowestoft - Luton North - Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Maldon - Mid Bedfordshire - Mid Norfolk - North Bedfordshire - North East Cambridgeshire - North East Hertfordshire - North Norfolk - North West Cambridgeshire - North West Essex - North West Norfolk - Norwich North - Norwich South - Peterborough - Rayleigh and Wickford - South Basildon and East Thurrock - South Cambridgeshire - South Norfolk - South Suffolk - South West Hertfordshire - South West Norfolk - Southend East and Rochford - Southend West and Leigh - St Albans - St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire - Stevenage - Suffolk Coastal - Thurrock - Watford - Waveney Valley - Welwyn Hatfield - West Suffolk - Witham

LONDON
Barking - Battersea - Beckenham and Penge - Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Bethnal Green and Stepney - Bexleyheath and Crayford - Brent East - Brent West - Brentford and Isleworth - Bromley and Biggin Hill - Carshalton and Wallington - Chelsea and Fulham - Chingford and Woodford Green - Chipping Barnet - Cities of London and Westminster - Clapham and Brixton Hill - Croydon East - Croydon South - Croydon West - Dagenham and Rainham - Dulwich and West Norwood - Ealing Central and Acton - Ealing North - Ealing Southall - East Ham - Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Eltham and Chislehurst - Enfield North - Erith and Thamesmead - Feltham and Heston - Finchley and Golders Green - Greenwich and Woolwich - Hackney North and Stoke Newington - Hackney South and Shoreditch - Hammersmith and Chiswick - Hampstead and Highgate - Harrow East - Harrow West - Hayes and Harlington - Hendon - Holborn and St Pancras - Hornchurch and Upminster - Hornsey and Friern Barnet - Ilford North - Ilford South - Islington North - Islington South and Finsbury - Kensington and Bayswater -  Kingston and Surbiton - Lewisham East - Lewisham North - Lewisham West and East Dulwich - Leyton and Wanstead - Mitcham and Morden - Old Bexley and Sidcup - Orpington - Peckham - Poplar and Limehouse - Putney - Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Richmond Park - Romford - Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - Southgate and Wood Green - Stratford and Bow - Streatham and Croydon North - Sutton and Cheam - Tooting - Tottenham - Twickenham - Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Vauxhall and Camberwell Green - Walthamstow - West Ham and Beckton - Wimbledon

NORTH EAST
Bishop Auckland - Blaydon and Consett - Blyth and Ashington - City of Durham - Cramlington and Killingworth - Darlington - Easington - Gateshead Central and Whickham - Hartlepool - Hexham - Houghton and Sunderland South - Jarrow and Gateshead East - Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland - Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Newcastle upon Tyne North - Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - North Durham - North Northumberland - Redcar - South Shields - Stockton North - Stockton West - Sunderland Central - Tynemouth - Washington and Gateshead South

NORTH WEST
Altrincham and Sale West - Ashton-under-Lyne - Barrow and Furness - Birkenhead - Blackburn - Blackley and Middleton South - Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Blackpool South - Bolton North East - Bolton South and Walkden - Bolton West - Bootle - Burnley - Bury North - Bury South - Carlisle - Cheadle - Chester North and Neston - Chester South and Eddisbury - Chorley - Congleton - Crewe and Nantwich - Ellesmere Port and Bromborough - Fylde - Gorton and Denton - Hazel Grove - Heywood and Middleton North - Hyndburn - Knowsley - Lancaster and Wyre - Leigh and Atherton - Liverpool Garston - Liverpool Riverside - Liverpool Walton - Liverpool Wavertree - Liverpool West Derby - Macclesfield - Makerfield - Manchester Central - Manchester Rusholme - Manchester Withington - Mid Cheshire - Morecambe and Lunesdale - Oldham East and Saddleworth - Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton - Pendle and Clitheroe - Penrith and Solway - Preston - Ribble Valley - Rochdale - Rossendale and Darwen - Runcorn and Helsby - Salford - Sefton Central - South Ribble - Southport - St Helens North - St Helens South and Whiston - Stalybridge and Hyde - Stockport - Stretford and Urmston - Tatton - Wallasey - Warrington North - Warrington South - West Lancashire - Westmorland and Lonsdale - Whitehaven and Workington - Widnes and Halewood - Wigan - Wirral West - Worsley and Eccles - Wythenshawe and Sale East

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST
Aldershot - Arundel and South Downs - Ashford - Aylesbury - Banbury - Basingstoke - Beaconsfield - Bexhill and Battle -  Bicester and Woodstock - Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Bracknell - Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven - Brighton Pavilion - Buckingham and Bletchley - Canterbury - Chatham and Aylesford - Chesham and Amersham - Chichester - Crawley - Dartford - Didcot and Wantage - Dorking and Horley - Dover and Deal - Earley and Woodley - East Grinstead and Uckfield - East Hampshire - East Surrey - East Thanet - East Worthing and Shoreham - Eastbourne - Eastleigh - Epsom and Ewell - Esher and Walton - Fareham and Waterlooville - Farnham and Bordon - Faversham and Mid Kent - Folkstone and Hythe - Gillingham and Rainham - Godalming and Ash - Gosport - Gravesham - Guildford - Hamble Valley - Hastings and Rye - Havant - Henley and Thame - Herne Bay and Sandwich - Horsham - Hove and Portslade - Isle of Wight East - Isle of Wight West - Lewes - Maidenhead - Maidstone and Malling - Mid Buckinghamshire - Mid Sussex - Milton Keynes Central - Milton Keynes North - New Forest East - New Forest West - Newbury - North East Hampshire - North West Hampshire - Oxford East - Oxford West and Abingdon - Portsmouth North - Portsmouth South - Reading Central - Reading West and Mid Berkshire - Reigate - Rochester and Strood - Romsey and Southampton North - Runnymede and Weybridge - Sevenoaks - Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Slough - Southampton Itchen - Southampton Test - Spelthorne - Surrey Heath - Sussex Weald - Tonbridge - Tunbridge Wells - Weald of Kent - Winchester - Windsor - Witney - Woking - Wokingham - Worthing West - Wycombe

SOUTH WEST
Bath - Bournemouth East - Bournemouth West - Bridgwater - Bristol Central - Bristol East - Bristol North East - Bristol North West - Bristol South - Camborne and Redruth - Central Devon - Cheltenham - Chippenham - Christchurch - East Wiltshire - Exeter - Exmouth and Exeter East - Filton and Bradley Stoke - Forest of Dean - Frome and East Somerset - Glastonbury and Somerton - Gloucester - Honiton and Sidmouth - Melksham and Devizes - Mid Dorset and North Poole - Newton Abbot - North Cornwall - North Cotswolds - North Devon - North Dorset - North East Somerset and Hanham - North Somerset - Plymouth Moor View - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Poole - Salisbury - South Cotswolds - South Devon - South Dorset - South East Cornwall - South West Devon - South West Wiltshire - St Austell and Newquay - St Ives - Stroud - Swindon North - Swindon South - Taunton and Wellington - Tewkesbury - Thornbury and Yate - Tiverton and Minehead - Torbay - Torridge and Tavistock - Truro and Falmouth - Wells and Mendip Hills - West Dorset - Weston-super-Mare - Yeovil

WEST MIDLANDS
Aldridge-Brownhills - Birmingham Edgbaston - Birmingham Erdington - Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - Birmingham Ladywood - Birmingham Northfield - Birmingham Perry Barr - Birmingham Selly Oak - Birmingham Yardley - Bromsgrove - Burton and Uttoxeter - Cannock Chase - Coventry East - Coventry North West - Coventry South - Droitwich and Evesham - Dudley - Halesowen - Hereford and South Herefordshire - Kenilworth and Southam - Kingswinford and South Staffordshire - Lichfield - Meriden and Solihull East - Newcastle-under-Lyme - North Herefordshire - North Shropshire - North Warwickshire and Bedworth - Nuneaton - Redditch - Rugby - Shrewsbury - Smethwick - Solihull West and Shirley - South Shropshire - Stafford - Staffordshire Moorlands - Stoke-on-Trent Central - Stoke-on-Trent North - Stoke-on-Trent South - Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - Stourbridge - Stratford-on-Avon - Sutton Coldfield - Tamworth - Telford - The Wrekin - Tipton and Wednesbury - Walsall and Bloxwich - Warwick and Leamington - West Bromwich - West Worcestershire - Wolverhampton North East - Wolverhampton South East - Wolverhampton West - Worcester - Wyre Forest

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Barnsley North - Barnsley South - Beverley and Holderness - Bradford East - Bradford South - Bradford West - Bridlington and The Wolds - Brigg and Immingham - Calder Valley - Colne Valley - Dewsbury and Batley - Doncaster Central - Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme - Doncaster North - Goole and Pocklington - Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Halifax - Harrogate and Knaresborough - Huddersfield - Keighley and Ilkley - Kingston upon Hull East - Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - Leeds Central and Headingley - Leeds East - Leeds North East - Leeds North West - Leeds South - Leeds South West and Morley - Leeds West and Pudsey - Normanton and Hemsworth - Ossett and Denby Dale - Penistone and Stocksbridge - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Richmond and Northallerton - Rother Valley - Rotherham - Scarborough and Whitby - Scunthorpe - Selby - Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Sheffield Central - Sheffield Hallam - Sheffield Heeley - Sheffield South East - Shipley - Skipton and Ripon - Spen Valley - Thirsk and Malton - Wakefield and Rothwell - Wetherby and Easingwold - York Central - York Outer

SCOTLAND

Aberdeen North - Aberdeen South - Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - Airdrie and Shotts - Alloa and Grangemouth - Angus and Perthshire Glens - Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - Bathgate and Linlithgow - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Central Ayrshire - Coatbridge and Bellshill - Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - Dumfries and Galloway - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - Dundee Central - Dunfermline and Dollar - East Kilbride and Strathaven - East Renfrewshire - Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - Edinburgh North and Leith - Edinburgh South - Edinburgh South West - Edinburgh West - Falkirk - Glasgow East - Glasgow North - Glasgow North East - Glasgow South - Glasgow South West - Glasgow West - Glenrothes and Mid Fife - Gordon and Buchan - Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - Kilmarnock and Loudoun - Livingston - Lothian East - Mid Dunbartonshire - Midlothian - Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - Na h-Eileanan an Iar - North Ayrshire and Arran - North East Fife - Orkney and Shetland - Paisley and Renfrewshire North - Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Perth and Kinross-shire - Rutherglen - Stirling and Strathallan - West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - West Dunbartonshire

WALES
Aberafan Maesteg - Alyn and Deeside - Bangor Aberconwy - Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Bridgend - Caerfyrddin - Caerphilly - Cardiff East - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Ceredigion Preseli - Clwyd East - Clwyd North - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Gower - Llanelli - Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Monmouthshire - Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Neath and Swansea East - Newport East - Newport West and Islwyn - Pontypridd - Rhondda and Ogmore - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham - Ynys Mon

General Election 2024: A re-alignment in waiting

TIME is almost up. It has been 43 days since Rishi Sunak stood out in the pissing rain in Downing Street and announced his decision to call a General Election.

Frankly the optics that day were terrible for Mr Sunak and the campaign has got little better for the Conservatives since then.

It is thought that the decision to go to the polls was made on the back of the announcement by the Office of National Statistics that inflation had finally almost dropped to the all-important 2% target.

But, after 14 years of often chaotic Conservative-led government, the opinion polls suggest the public is no longer in the mood to accept such tiny morsels. 

Instead, most polling companies continue to show the same sort of significant Labour leads which began at the tail-end of the scandal-ridden Boris Johnson era in which Mr Sunak was Chancellor. 

Moreover, for the first time since 2005, The Sun newspaper - known for wanting to back the winner - has endorsed Labour. 

It is a far cry from December 2019 when Mr Johnson won a comfortable 80-seat majority on the back of his promise to get Brexit done.

Even, as recently as May 2021, Mr Johnson eyed "a decade in power", according to the Times, as the Conservatives basked in the success of roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

But then came Partygate. And the sale of contracts for personal protection equipment to Tory donors. And the Chris Pincher groping scandal - and so much more. 

In the meantime, Labour had installed a leader in Sir Keir Starmer who was more palatable to Middle England than left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. 

Next came the financial upheaval caused by the mini-Budget announced by Liz Truss's Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng during her 49-day tenure, the shortest on record for a Prime Minister. 

Yet nothing which Mr Sunak has done since his own elevation on 25 October 2022 - which appears to have been very little - has even as much as threatened to turn the tide.

Indeed, the only noticeable shift in the polls during the election period has gone against the Conservatives following the re-entry of former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

Mr Farage entered the election in typically dramatic style, taking over the leadership of the insurgent Reform Party from Richard Tice on 3 June and announcing his candidacy in the Clacton constituency.

Remarkably, it is the eighth time that Mr Farage has stood for election to the House of Commons - and he has failed to win on the previous seven occasions in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2015.

But this time feels different - long-standing political pundits are struggling to remember a government quite as unpopular as the Sunak administration, and there is a likelihood that Reform will take a select few seats.

Ultimately, any greater impact by Reform will be stymied by the First Past The Post system - which a referendum held on 5 May 2011 agreed to keep in place over the Alternative Vote.

Instead, if the Labour vote is as efficient as suggested by some forecasts, a largely evenly-spread Reform vote across England and Wales would be likely to cause change in all sorts of Conservative seats which would not be considered, in all normality, to be marginal.

For sure, Mr Sunak appears to be running scared of this scenario and given up the fight, even going as far as to appeal to his followers on X/Twitter on the eve of the election to "stop the [Labour] supermajority".

It really was an astounding message for an incumbent Prime Minister to send out. 

Of course, it is not just Labour and Reform which the Conservatives need to worry about, though.

The Liberal Democrats were massively hit by their association with the Tories in the austerity-driven coalition between 2010 and 2015. 

But recent big-swing by-election and council election victories have shown Ed Davey's party has begun to recover ground in their traditional heartlands in the South West of England and the outskirts of London.

Some forecasts have even suggested that a particularly efficient spread of the Lib Dem vote in the south would turn Ed Davey's party into the Official Opposition and reduce the Conservatives to double figures in terms of seats.

That still seems fanciful - but what is not in doubt is the fact that the Tories are in big trouble.

Already it seems to have been generally accepted that the Conservatives are facing a 1997-style defeat when Labour under Tony Blair began three full terms of government with a stonking majority of 179.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the Conservative cohort being reduced to fewer than 100 MPs cannot be ruled out altogether.

In turn, that might signal the beginning of the end of its current guise as a political behemoth which has dominated British politics for huge stretches of time since its formation in 1834.

Certainly, Reform will be hoping to win enough seats to present itself as a legitimate offering on the political right - and, while fully-fledged political collapses are pretty rare, they are also not unprecedented. 

In the 1993 federal election in Canada, the centre-right Progressive Conservatives had their outright majority reduced to two seats. 

More recently, in the Presidential and legislative elections in France in 2017, it was the turn of the centre-left Parti Socialiste to fall away into insignificance. 

Even in the UK itself, it is not a complete unknown - although it is 114 years since a badly-divided Liberal Party collapsed from power in 1910.

Neither that party nor any of its successors have ever come close to holding a majority again, though.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024 THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

▪️ The exit poll

For people who are not complete political nerds intent on pulling an all-nighters, just staying up until 10pm - when the polls officially close - may well suffice given its improving accuracy. That will signal the release of the exit poll - a pooled effort by BBC, ITV and Sky in around 150 key constituencies - where voters are asked which candidate they voted for. The exit poll accurately assessed in 2017 that Theresa May had lost her majority and also that the Conservatives remained the largest party - while, in 2019, it pointed towards a Conservative majority of 86 under Boris Johnson which ended up being 80. In 2010, the exit poll was actually almost spot-on in predicting the number of seats won by each of the main parties as David Cameron fell short of a majority. And, even though in 2015 it failed to pick the Conservatives majority under Mr Cameron, it still correctly showed the Tories had won far more seats than the polls during the campaign had suggested.

▪️ Overall turnout

Turnout at General Elections hovvered between 70-80% for most of the 20th Century but, since the turn of the Millennium, it has dropped to 60-70%. In 2001, in an election dubbed Labour's "quiet landslide", turnout fell as low as 59.4% - although it has been at a rather heathlier 68.8% and 67.3% in the two most recent General Elections in 2017 and 2019. A lower turnout than usual this time could spell more trouble for the Conservatives if it is their disenchanted supporters who have declined the invitation to attend the ballot box. 

▪️ New boundaries and notional majorities

The outgoing Parliament finally voted on the recommendations made by the Boundary Commission, meaning this General Election will be the first to be contested under the new boundaries. To the casual observer, it will mean for many voters that they will be voting in a constituency which has changed its name. More than that, though, the geography of the new seat will be, in some cases, significantly different to its predecessor - and that leads us onto notional majorities. A notional majority is a calculation made to determine what an election result would have been in a previous election if the newly-created boundaries had been in place then. Originally, the boundary changes were expected to benefit the Conservatives slightly more than the other parties as the Commission's findings account for population movement which is generally from the north to the south, where more Conservative support is based. Such has been the steepness of the decline in the popularity of the Tories, though, that - beyond a new set of seat names - the changes will have a negligible effect. 

▪️ Big fish

It is something of a mark of the chaos of the previous Parliament that, between the elections of 2019 and 2024, there have been three Prime Ministers, five Chancellors of the Exchequer, four Home Secretaries, and four Foreign Secretaries in the four Great Offices of State, as shown below. Several of these figures are not standing for re-election while current Foreign Secretary David Cameron sits in the House of Lords. But might Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, James Cleverly or even Rishi Sunak produce a moment to rival that of the deposition of Michael Portillo in 1997?

Prime Minister	Chancellor	Home Secretary	Foreign Secretary
Boris Johnson (2019 to 06-Sep-2022)	Sajid Javid (2019 to 13-Feb-2020) Rishi Sunak (13-Feb-2020 to 05-Jul-2022) Nadhim Zahawi (05-Jul-2022 to 06-Sep-2022)	Priti Patel (2019 to 06-Sep-2022)	Dominic Raab (2019 to 15-Sep-2021) Liz Truss (15-Sep-2021 to 06-Sep-2022)
Liz Truss (06-Sep-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)	Kwasi Kwarteng (06-Sep-2022 to 14-Oct-2022)  Jeremy Hunt (since 14-Oct-2022)	Suella Braverman (06-Sep-2022 to 19-Oct-2022) Grant Shapps (19-Oct-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)	James Cleverly (06-Sep-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)
Rishi Sunak (since 25-Oct-2022)		Suella Braverman (25-Oct-2022 to 13-Nov-2023) James Cleverly (since 13-Nov-2023)	Baron (David) Cameron (since 13-Nov-2023)

▪️ Number of Conservative seats, size of Labour majority

Labour won 418 seats under Tony Blair at the 1997 General Election for a majority of 179 - while the Conservatives under John Major were reduced to 165. The Tories had fared worse only in 1906, when they took only 131 seats - yet there is speculation, even among dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives, that one or more of these records could be broken. 

▪️ Number of seats won by Liberal Democrats, Reform, and Green Party

The First Past The Post system encourages dominance by two parties by its very nature and makes it difficult for smaller parties to make much impact at a General Election. Over the years, the Lib Dems often punched above the weight of their overall vote by pouring their resources into select target seats - and the Green Party and Reform appear to be following suit. Mainly appealing to those on the left-wing who are disaffected by the centrist shift of the Labour leadership, the Greens have set their sights on Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, as well as holding Brighton Pavilion despite the retirement of four-term MP Caroline Lucas. Meanwhile, Reform will look to have attracted people disenchanted with politics generally - and, as well as holding Ashfield which the party gained in March 2024 as a result of the defection of Lee Anderson, leader Nigel Farage is aiming to make it into Parliament at the eighth time of asking as MP for Clacton. Other targets for Reform include Boston and Skegness, Basildon and Billericay and Great Yarmouth. 

▪️ Number of seats won by the Scottish Nationalist Party

Up to this point, this preview has focused on seats in England and Wales - but the situation in Scotland is slightly different. There, Labour again appears to be benefiting from a collapse in support of a scandal-hit ruling party, except in this case that party is the Scottish Nationalists, and not the Conservatives. The SNP has been in power in the Scottish Parliament since 2007, and has won the most seats north of the border in the last three General Elections - but it faces the outcome of an ongoing investigation by Police Scotland into possible fundraising fraud. Prior to SNP surge, during the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown era, Scotland was a bedrock of Labour support - and polling suggests Sir Keir Starmer has begun to recover much of the lost ground in Central Belt. Still, in contrast to the so-called Red Wall in England and large parts of Wales which are expected to return fully to the Labour fold, the political outlook in Scotland looks set to be finely balanced - and the SNP will aim to limit their losses after a rough few years.