Monday 24 July 2023

Another messy night

LABOUR overturned a majority of more than 20,000 in the Selby and Ainsty by-election on Thursday to gain its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945.

Keir Mather, aged 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons - the Baby of the House - after he secured 16,456 votes (46%) compared to Conservative candidate Clare Holmes's 12,295 (34.3%) on a swing of 23.7%.

Additionally, on a night when three seats were up for grabs, the Tories also lost heavily in Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats who produced a quite remarkable 29% swing.

But, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives defied dreadful national polls by claiming victory in the seat vacated in July by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Johnson had resigned as an MP following the publishing of a highly-critical report by the Parliamentary Privileges Committee into Partygate which recommended his suspension from Parliament.

But, despite avoiding the indignity of becoming the first PM to lose three by-elections on the same night since Harold Wilson in 1968, the storm clouds are still gathering for the current incumbent Rishi Sunak.

After all, the held seat in outer London was attributed almost entirely to local factors with triumphant Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell pointedly directing his victory speech to Labour mayor Sadiq Khan for his proposed imposition of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on the area.

Under the scheme, drivers must pay £12.50 per day if they drive a vehicle which does not meet modern emission standards.

Generally, these are diesel vehicles that are more than seven years old, or petrol vehicles that are more than 17 years old.

Mr Khan defended the policy even after the result in the early hours of Friday morning, saying: "It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?"

Additionally, the complaints of the Conservatives ring rather hollow if the reality of the situation is considered as ULEZ was actually initiated by Mr Johnson while he was London mayor.

The extension of the scheme to outer London under Mr Khan was also a condition set by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in exchange for financial support for Transport for London during COVID-19.

Nonetheless, Mr Tuckwell's message had a decisive effect on the seat - and, after being decidedly non-committal during campaign, Labour leader Sir Keir Starter called upon Mr Khan to "reflect" on his decision to expand ULEZ, all of a sudden rather hanging him out to dry.

That much-quoted adage of Benjamin Franklin of never interrupting an opponent while they are making a mistake appears to explain the previously cautious strategy of the Labour leader.

But, despite failing in Uxbridge, this somewhat questionable tactic might still work overall as, another political cliché - which suggests governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them - also appears to be ringing true.

The defeat in Selby and Ainsty, a long-time Tory-held rural seat in North Yorkshire, can only be considered to be a response to a government which has dragged the public, in political terms, to hell and back.

It started with austerity brought in by David Cameron in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis - then, following his resignation immediately after a losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, his successor Theresa May called a self-defeating General Election in which she lost her majority and caused complete stalemate in the Commons.

Mrs May's eventual replacement Mr Johnson - following a difficult start in which he almost seemed like his own worst enemy even among his own party - appeared to steady matters by routing a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour at the 2019 General Election.

But, three months later, COVID-19 arrived and threw the government into chaos again.

Mr Johnson applied inconsistent lockdown restrictions while Downing Street staff members unashamedly held alcohol-fuelled parties, including one on the night before Queen Elizabeth II buried her husband Prince Philip.

Eventually, after months of pressure, Mr Johnson was forced to resign as PM in July 2022, prompting a messy leadership election from which Liz Truss somehow emerged the winner.

Ms Truss arrived attempting to increase spending and cut taxes, an audacious move at a time of rising prices worldwide and one which spooked the markets so badly that, with a tenure of only 49 days, she became the shortest reigning Prime Minister in history.

Enter Mr Sunak but, as something of a charisma vacuum, he is also someone who - it has been perhaps less easily forgotten - stood alongside and was fined for a coronavirus indiscretion alongside Mr Johnson while Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Back to the by-elections on Thursday - and the south west of England is an area in which Labour has never been particularly competitive and their voters also appear willing to vote tactically.

In fact, in Somerton and Frome, the Labour candidate polled a miserable 1,009 votes (2.6%) to lose his deposit - but Labour voters there surely knew it was the Lib Dems who are the main threat to the Tories anyway.

By-election victories in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022 and now in Somerton and Frome strongly suggest Sir Ed Davey's party will indeed cause a lot of trouble for the Tories in this region at the next General Election.

In 1997, the Lib Dems won 14 seats in the south west - and they won the same number in 2010 in an overall total of 57 to prevent Mr Cameron from gaining a majority at the first attempt.

Instead, a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition was formed - though, following a near-wipeout in 2015, the Lib Dems certainly will not go down that particularly cul-de-sac again in the course of another hung parliament.

Of course, Labour continues to boast significant poll leads so will be looking towards a first outright majority since Tony Blair was victorious in 2005.

But results like the one in Uxbridge cast doubt on that ambition.

Indeed, only a fool would assess the next General Election on the basis of a uniform national swing in which all of the seats across the whole country are predicted to behave in the same way.

The political landscape has been messy for almost two decades now with the global financial crisis, austerity policies, Brexit and COVID-19 causing various levels of chaos.

It is difficult to imagine then that the next General Election - expected in spring or autumn next year - will be anything other than messy too. 

BY ELECTION RESULTS
Thursday 20 July 2023

UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP


Steve TuckwellCON13,96545.2%(-7.4%)
Danny BealesLAB13,47043.6%(+6.0%)
Sarah GreenGRN8932.9%(+0.7%)
Laurence FoxRCM7142.3%(-)
Blaise BaquicheLD5261.7%(-4.6%)
Others
1,3574.4%
CON hold • Turnout 46.2% (17.3%)

SELBY AND AINSTY



Keir MatherLAB16,45646.0%(+21.4%)
Claire HolmesCON12,29534.3%(-26.0%)
Arnold WarnekenGRN1,8385.1%(+1.9%)
Mike JordanYP1,5034.2%(+0.8%)
Dave KentRFM1,3323.7%(-)
Matt WalkerLD1,1883.3%(-5.3%)
Others
1,1953.5%
LAB GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.8% (-27.2%)

SOMERTON AND FROME


Sarah DykeLD21,18754.6%(+28.4%)
Faye PurbrickCON10,17926.2%(-29.6%)
Martin DimeryGRN3,94410.2%(+5.1%)
Bruce EvansRFM1,3033.4%(-)
Neil GuildLAB1,0092.6%(-10.3%)
Others
1,1663.0%
LD GAIN FROM CON  Turnout 44.2% (-31.4%)

KEY ▪️ CON Conservatives  LAB Labour  LD Liberal Democrats  GRN Green  RCM Reclaim  YP Yorkshire Party  RFM Reform UK

Tuesday 11 July 2023

Ashes alive after England win Headingley nail-biter

ENGLAND kept the Ashes alive with a tight victory at Headingley by three wickets to reduce their series arrears to 2-1.

It was a third nail-biting finale of the summer after similar knife-edge chases by Australia in the first Test at Edgbaston and England in the second Test at Lord's. 

Australia were successful in their pursuit while England were 44 runs short at the Home of Cricket to leave the series at 2-0 to the Aussies.

As holders, the Baggy Greens had made the ideal start - and, even just a draw at Leeds would have been enough for them to retain the urn.

The third Test at Headingley had therefore become a must-win for the hosts.

Sent into bat after losing a third toss in a row, Australia soon found themselves reduced to 85-4 as David Warner (4), Usman Khawaja (13), Marnus Labuschagne (21) and Steve Smith (22) all fell cheaply.

But the unheralded Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh almost took the tourists to Tea without further damage when, on the stroke of the interval, the latter nicked Chris Woakes behind.

Still, Marsh had made 118 by then at exactly a run-per-ball and had made Joe Root pay for dropping him on 12 early in his innings.

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Infuriatingly, for home fans, this was nothing new - and sloppiness from England is, frankly, a major reason for the Aussies' series lead.

In the field, England have dropped 18 catches - with Root in the slips guilty of shelling six alone.

Meanwhile, wicketkeeper Jonny Bairstow has had a torrid time behind the stumps, missing seven chances including an easy stumping.

Ben Foakes would appear to be a ready-made replacement, even if Bairstow was still retained as a batsman.

However, the Surrey glove-man remains out-of-favour with the team selection for the fourth Test next week at Old Trafford already confirmed.

Bairstow can consider himself pretty fortunate to have retained his place - although, to be fair, he still has some credit in the bank following his heroics last summer against New Zealand and India.

In this series, though, he averages just 23.50, a figure which can be partly attributed to his controversial stumping by Alex Carey in second innings at Lord's.

Carey had noticed Bairstow walking out of his crease after balls which he had left so, when the Yorkshireman did just that from a ball by Cameron Green, the Aussie keeper threw down the stumps.

The controversy derives from Law 20.1.1.1 which states that the ball is dead when it is finally settled in the hands of the wicket-keeper or of the bowler.

In fairness to Carey, though, he released the ball quickly before Bairstow had moved in anticipation that he would again leave his ground.

Perhaps, in the interests of the spirit of the game and to avoid the rather unexpected barracking which they received in the usually genteel Long Room at Lord's, Australia could have used the incident to serve a warning before withdrawing their appeal.

Regardless, though, it was dozy cricket from Bairstow - and, indeed, far more worthy of a wicket than the catch claimed by Mitchell Starc when he had slid the ball with his hand along the ground on the previous evening.

In terms of other head-scratching moments, the decision of skipper Ben Stokes to declare at 393-8 on the very first day of the series has also come in for criticism, particularly as Root was in control at the crease on 118 not out.

True, it meant Australia had to survive a tricky period before the close of play - but they duly did survive - and it seemed instead that England had failed to heed the lessons of their defeat to New Zealand in February.

That match at the Basin Reserve in Wellington brought another first innings declaration by Stokes - but, after the Black Caps made 483 in their second knock, England ended up short in the chase by a single run. 

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Back to the vital third Test - and, with Marsh removed by the last ball before Tea, England resumed after the break re-energised.

Mark Wood (5-34) prompted a collapse of 6-23 as Australia were bundled out for 263 - but, unfortunately, the wickets did not end there.

Just before the close, England lost Zak Crawley (33) to finish the day on 68-3 with Ben Duckett (2) and Harry Brook (3) having earlier barely troubled the scoreboard.

Then, on the second morning, it got worse. From the second ball of the day, Root was caught at first slip by Warner off skipper Pat Cummins and Bairstow could only make a dozen before nicking Starc to Smith at second slip.

England were 87-5 and even first innings parity looked a long way off.

But, to his great credit, Stokes (80) intervened to play a truly great captain's knock, scoring steadily with Moeen Ali and Woakes before Wood also brought fireworks with the bat.

The Ashington-born fast bowler hit 24 off just eight balls - and Stokes then joined the fun by hitting Starc for three consecutive boundaries before twice cracking successive sixes off the bowling of spinner Todd Murphy.

Eventually, England were bowled out for 237, a mere 26-run deficit when it had looked as if it was going to be a lot worse.

Indeed, with Warner - removed by Broad for the 17th time in Tests - and Labuschagne (33), Smith (2) and Khawaja (43) again gone early, there was little at that point to choose between both teams.

Head and Marsh guided the Aussies to stumps as the lead neared 150 - and, in the Yorkshire drizzle, much of day three was an exercise in frustration.

In the end, there was actually more play than expected - enough time, in fact, for the express pace of Wood to bowl out the Aussies for 224, which left England with a target of 251.

Crawley and fellow opener Duckett eased England unscathed to 27-0 at the close of play - but, in truth, it was never going to be a straightforward chase, even though the pitch clearly held no demons.

Four overs after Lunch on day four, England were 171-6, still 80 runs short, after Bairstow completed a miserable Test by dragging an attempted drive off Starc onto his stumps.

Thankfully, though, Brook was still there - and the Keighley-born right-hander on his home ground settled into a good rhythm with Woakes to put on 59 for the seventh wicket.

Brook departed for 75 with 21 still required to leave the door open for one final twist if the Aussies were able to run through the tail.

By then, though, Woakes had played himself in and he provided the perfect foil for the more aggressive Wood who added 16 runs off eight balls to make it 40 off 16 in the match.

Nevertheless, it was Woakes who deservedly hit the winning runs with a confident drive through point to ensure England kept the Ashes alive.

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Remarkably, in the eight Ashes series - four home and four away - between 1989 and 2002-03, England won just one live Ashes Test, the first match at Edgbaston in 1997.

That series still finished 3-2 to Australia - but, in fairness, over the past 20 years, the overall contest has been more evenly matched.

At home, England are unbeaten in the contest since 2001 with four wins and a draw in the intervening 22 years.

However, Down Under, there have been two whitewashes of England in 2006-07 and 2013-14 - and another two 4-0 results in the Aussies' favour in 2017-18 and 2021-22.

In truth, Australia remain strong favourites for this Ashes series as well - they have lost all three tosses, generally have had the worst of the conditions, and yet still lead 2-1.

Moreover, the only side in Ashes history to win from 2-0 down were the Australians in 1936-37 with a team featuring a certain Donald Bradman.

But at least this time, with this attacking line-up and mindset, England have given themselves a chance - and, in never settling for the draw, it is win-win or bust between now and the end of July. 

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