Sunday, 11 September 2022

That was the week that was


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BRITAIN is still officially in mourning today following the death of Queen Elizabeth II at at age of 96 at Balmoral Castle on Thursday.


At 70 years and 214 days, Elizabeth II had the longest reign of any British monarch and the longest recorded of any female head of state in history.

Her death was announced by Buckingham Palace at 18:30 BST on 8 September 2022.

Immediately, upon that announcement, her eldest son - the former Prince Charles who is now King Charles III - was elevated to the throne.

And, yesterday, King Charles III was formally proclaimed as such at St James Palace in London with gun salutes fired in Hyde Park and at the Tower of London.

The night before, on Friday, His Majesty addressed the nation for the first time as King, and referred to his "darling Mama".

In his speech, he said: "As you begin your last great journey to join my dear late Papa, I want simply to say this: thank you.

"Thank you for your love and devotion to our family and to the family of nations you have served so diligently all these years. May ‘flights of angels sing thee to thy rest.’"

It is undeniable that Queen Elizabeth II lived a remarkable life. Born in 1926, a part of the Greatest Generation, she was a teenager while World War II raged.

Yet, already by then, her destiny had undergone a massive change. In 1936, her father King George VI unexpectedly acceded to the throne following abdication of his brother, King Edward VIII.

Suddenly, the then Princess Elizabeth had become the heir presumptive.

In February 1952, the Queen's father, King George VI, died of coronary thrombosis - and so, at the age of 25, Queen Elizabeth acceded to the throne.

Over a year later, on 2 June 1953 following a seven-month round-the-world tour which encompassed 13 countries and covered more than 40,000 miles, Her Majesty was coronated at Westminster Abbey.

Between her accession and her death, the Queen appointed 15 Prime Ministers, the last of which - Liz Truss - only took office on Tuesday (see below).

Undoubtedly then, the Queen enjoyed a life of privilege. Equally, though, Elizabeth II was clearly committed to her role right to the very end of her life.

As mentioned, it is not a position in life to which she was destined - and yet she performed her many duties with a great deal of decorum and dedication.

Nevertheless, this correspondent certainly would not describe himself as a Royalist.

Instinctively, the curious idea of a monarchy - though providing the background or often more than just the background to almost all of British history - surely would not be the starting point if a society were being built from scratch.

Also, the continued popular reference to the current Royal Family as The Firm is a discomforting mafia-like term - and the Royals themselves have done little to dispel it.

More recently, on this note, the extreme level of protection offered to Prince Andrew against the sex abuse allegations made about him in the United States hardly reflects well upon the Royal Family.

And, as far as the Americans are concerned, Prince Andrew does have a case to answer...

Beyond that, King Charles, while Prince, has not been slow to voice his opinion - and, through letters to ministers, effectively attempted tried to influence policy on matters as widespread as farming, urban planning, architecture, education, and even protecting the Patagonian toothfish.

Now, the King has the right to an opinion obviously - but the whole basis of British democracy is that the monarch does not get involved in any way in the political issues of the day.

The anathema that is the weekly meeting between the monarch and the Prime Minister will continue undoubtedly - and it seems unlikely the King and Ms Truss will merely discuss the weather or how the cricket is going.

Nevertheless, at this stage in history, supporters of a Republic in Britain need to accept the country is simply not going to wake up one day and have revolution.

Right now, there are far more obvious fights for those with left-wing politics to pick. For a start, the cost-of-living crisis thanks to a 12-year-long Conservative government.

Sadly, some of the responses on social media about the death of Queen Elizabeth II have done nothing except harm their cause.

After all, there is no need to indulge in flag-waving mania to respect the death of a great historical figure.

This has been a sad moment for the country. It is a moment which needs stillness, reflection, and mourning.

RIP Queen Elizabeth II (1926-2022), aged 96. Reign: 6 February 1952 to 8 September 2022.

PRIME MINISTERS IN THE REIGN OF QUEEN ELIZABETH II
Winston ChurchillConservative1951-1955
Anthony EdenConservative1955-1957
Harold MacmillanConservative1957-1963
Alec Douglas-HomeConservative1963-1964
Harold Wilson

Labour

1964-1970
1974-1976
Edward HeathConservative1970-1974
James CallaghanLabour1976-1979
Margaret ThatcherConservative1979-1991
John MajorConservative1991-1997
Tony BlairLabour1997-2007
Gordon BrownLabour2007-2010
David CameronConservative2010-2016
Theresa MayConservative2016-2019
Boris JohnsonConservative2019-2022
Elizabeth TrussConservative2022-

EARLIER last week, Elizabeth Truss became the third new Conservative Prime Minister in just over six years after defeating Rishi Sunak in a fractious leadership election.

Ms Truss took 81,326 votes (57.4%) against Mr Sunak's tally of 60,399 (42.6%), and therefore became only the third woman to hold the highest office in United Kingdom politics after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May.

The announcement of Ms Truss as the new leader came as the House of Commons reconvened following its six-week summer recess.

In her victory speech, the 47-year-old said: “We shouldn’t be daunted by the challenges we face, as strong as the storm may be. I know that the British people are stronger.

“Our country was built by people who can get things done. We have huge reserves of talent, of energy, of determination. I am confident that together we can ride out the storm.

“We can rebuild our economy and we can become the modern, brilliant Britain I know we can be.”

Now, of course, the result itself was widely expected - even though Mr Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, had been more popular among the current cohort of Conservative MPs.

By contrast, Ms Truss only just squeaked past Penny Mordaunt in the last of those five votes held in Westminster between 13 July and 20 July.

Perhaps, though, it is easiest to sum up this contest with the conclusion that Mr Sunak's weaknesses were far greater than Ms Truss's strengths.

While Chancellor, Mr Sunak raised the tax burden on the UK to its highest level, as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, since the country was still in recovery from the Second World War in the 1950s.

This included an increase in the tax take from some of the poorest workers through a rise in National Insurance rate to 13.25%, a decision which broke a manifesto promise made in 2019.

A subsequent rise in the lower earnings threshold to £12,570, bringing it in line with the Personal Allowance for income tax, has eased the strain a little.

But, in March 2022, the Office for Budget Responsibility published a forecast which stated the UK population would suffer the "biggest fall in living standards on record".


And, just last month, consultancy firm Cornwall Insight warned that typical energy bills could hit £4,266 per year in 2023 - with the government regulator Ofgem also admitting there will be a steep rise.

In short then, Mr Sunak - even accounting for some difficult times during the COVID-19 pandemic - had a pretty poor record to defend.

After all, the 42-year-old Richmond (Yorks) MP, among other huge government splurges, authorised the outlay of £37 billion on a test-and-trace system which was not fit for purpose.

Certainly, that so-called magic money tree seemed to exist for the Conservatives - and their donors - at the most of convenient times.

Then again, Mr Sunak also failed because he ruined his reputation among some die-hard Tory members when he resigned as Chancellor and prompted the series of events which brought down Boris Johnson's premiership.

This was despite Mr Sunak having previously consistently defended Mr Johnson's behaviour - and, moreover, also been given a fixed penalty notice by the Metropolitan Police for a Partygate incident.

Ultimately, though, it was a similar narrative to when Ed Miliband was considered to have figuratively stabbed his brother David in the back by standing in - and then winning - the Labour leadership contest in 2010.

Now, Mr Sunak has learned the hard way that there is only so far that a sharp suit and cheesy smile can take you - whereas Ms Truss, by her own admission, is far more awkward in her presentation.

However, Ms Truss emphasised her working class upbringing in Paisley, Scotland and Roundhay, Leeds - and her self-perception that she succeeded in spite of the state education system rather than because of it.

Of course, the South West Norfolk MP - despite her unashamed efforts to embrace the same style as Mrs Thatcher - has always failed to mention she went to school in the 1980s when her idol was in charge.

Indeed, Ms Truss is a terribly twisted muddle of contradictions.

A former member of the Liberal Democrats as a teenager, Ms Truss declared yesterday: "I [have] campaigned as a Conservative and I will govern as a Conservative."

But, while it is fair enough to consider that a person's politics can change over time, there was certainly a far greater ungainliness in the more recent shift in Ms Truss's position from ardent Remainer to committed Brexiteer.

Furthermore, even during the course of this leadership campaign, there have been moments of baffling inconsistency.

On 2 August, Ms Truss announced a saving to the Treasury of £8.8 billion by pledging to cut the pay of public sector workers in roles outside of London and the south-east of England - then, less than 24 hours later, took the policy off the table.

Similarly, on the energy crisis, Ms Truss firstly appeared to rule out direct cash “handouts” as a way of helping people affected by the cost-of-living crisis - before, a few days later, her supporters again claimed her comments had been misinterpreted.

It brought to mind the quote which is commonly attributed to the comedian Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."

For the millions of people feeling the pinch already, though, their situation is no laughing matter - and now is certainly not the time for another Prime Minister who obfuscates on policy and avoids scrutiny.

At the moment, the opinion polls show Labour ahead - and some surveys have produced a lead which would result in the party gaining its first majority in a General Election since 2005.

Then again, Labour has been here before - most recently in 2012 and 2013 when, against the backdrop of the coalition government's policy of austerity, Mr Miliband enjoyed double-digit poll leads over David Cameron.

Of course, the political landscape now is completely different now compared to what it was like a decade ago, on several counts.

Back then, support for the Lib Dems was massively in decline whereas, at present, they are advancing again against the Conservative in seats in the south and south-west of England.

Also, around 10 years ago, Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party were still polling relatively handsomely, regularly at around 15% and sometimes higher.

But, with Brexit done, the vast majority of these votes are already back in the Tories' column.

The good news for Ms Truss is that only a small percentage of the 2019 Conservative vote has switched directly to Labour - and there is certainly no massive swathe of excitement at the prospect of a government led by Sir Keir Starmer.

For now, Mr Starmer remains cautious, and this timidity is neatly demonstrated by the extent of his own energy policy which would prevent the energy price cap rising through this winter - but which provides no long-term strategic vision beyond this.

Instead, a far more significant proportion of the 2019 Conservative supporters has simply withdrawn their vote altogether.

The great unknown is whether this withdrawal of support will persist at the next general election or whether this period marks the return of the "shy Tory" factor.

In 1992 and 2015 elections, the Conservatives pulled off surprise majorities by tapping into this latent source of votes - and perhaps the ranks of the undecided are waiting to see just how Ms Truss will fair inside Number 10.

Undoubtedly, though, the apathy among Conservatives right now is very real, with more than 30,000 members opting not to cast a ballot for either candidate.

As such, Ms Truss was elected on the back of the support of less than 32% of her own MPs in the fifth ballot and less than half (47.1%) of her own party members.

Even without taking into account the miniscule size of the overall electorate in comparison to the country as a whole, it really is not much of a mandate.

CONSERVATIVE PARTY CABINET

Elected ConstituencyDepartment
Elizabeth Truss2010 South West NorfolkPrime Minister
Kwasi Kwarteng2010 SpelthorneChancellor of the Exchequer
James Cleverly2015 BraintreeForeign Office
Suella Braverman2015 FarehamHome Office
Therese Coffey2010 Suffolk CoastalHealth | Deputy Prime Minister
Ben Wallace2005 Wyre and Preston NorthDefence
Kit Malthouse2015 North West HampshireEducation
Brandon Lewis2010 Great YarmouthJustice
Nadhim Zahawi2010 Stratford-on-AvonEqualities
Simon Clarke
2017
 Middlesbrough S and E ClevelandHousing and Communities
Jacob Rees-Mogg2010 North East SomersetBusiness and Energy
Alok Sharma2010 Reading WestPresident of COP26
Kemi Badenoch2017 Saffron WaldenInternational Trade
Chloe Smith2009 Norwich NorthWork and Pensions
Ranil Jayawardena2015 North East HampshireEnvironment, Food, Rural Affairs
Anne-Marie Trevelyan2015
 Berwick-upon-Tweed
Transport
Chris Heaton-Harris2010 DaventryNorthern Ireland
Alister Jack2017 Dumfries and GallowayScotland
Sir Robert Buckland2010 South SwindonWales
Michelle Donelan2015 ChippenhamDigital, Culture, Media and Sport
Lord Nicholas True- -Leader of the House of Lords
Penny Mordaunt2010 Portsmouth NorthLeader of the House of Commons
Jake Berry2010 Rossendale and DarwenParty Chairman

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