Showing posts with label green party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label green party. Show all posts

Monday, 8 July 2024

General Election 2024 results: Labour wins a "Loveless Landslide"

LABOUR returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a mathematically mind-boggling majority at the 2024 General Election.

Sir Keir Starmer's party took 411 seats, a gain of 209, in a massive victory which almost matched the majority won by Tony Blair in 1997.

But, in a result which has already been termed a "Loveless Landslide", Labour received less than 10 million votes and took just a 33.8% share overall.

That was only modestly up on the 32.1% share received by Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn - who actually received more votes due to the higher turnout four-and-a-half years ago.

Back then, Mr Corbyn led Labour to its worst result in terms of seats since 1935 by piling up thousands of unnecessary additional votes in already rock-solid safe seats.

This time, though, Mr Starmer's broader appeal has resulted in the Labour vote being far more evenly spread across the United Kingdom with such a level of efficiency that any attempt to analyse the outcome using a traditional swingometer was rendered completely useless.

Overall, there was a 10.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour at this election, something which would have resulted in a hung parliament if the movement of votes had been the same across all of the constituencies.

However, that did not happen because, whereas previously the swing change has been pretty evenly matched between Labour gain and Conservative loss (or vice-versa), the swing this time could be almost solely attributed to the collapse in the Tories' vote share.

Indeed, any sort of analysis must begin with the obvious conclusion that this was the most visceral repudiation of the Conservative Party since its formation in 1834.

Frankly, the results of this General Election made the 1997 collapse look like a grand day out, as they received a record-low share of the vote (23.7%) and finished with 121 seats, another record low.

No fewer than 11 Cabinet ministers lost their seats - another record - including Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Perhaps none of these was quite on par with the Portillo moment in 1997, though.

Instead, that belonged to Jacob Rees-Mogg who was roundly defeated who was defeated in North East Somerset and Hanham by Dan Norris of Labour.

Or, more likely still, it was the unceremonious deposing of former Prime Minister Liz Truss whose reluctance to go on stage for her result led to a round of slow handclaps.

Ms Truss - who had a record-short tenure of 49 days as Prime Minister and infamously failed to outlast a lettuce - was defeated in the South West Norfolk constituency by Terry Jermy of Labour on a 26.2% swing. 

Meanwhile, the seats of three other former Conservative Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May - in Witney, Henley and Thame, and Maidenhead respectively - all returned a Liberal Democrat MP.

For the record, none of those former PMs was standing - but the turnover symbolised another big theme of the results of this election: the return of the Lib Dems.

In taking 72 seats, the Lib Dems will hold their biggest representation at the House of Commons since the party was founded in 1988, and the highest number by any Liberal party since 1923.

Yet, they also saw only a modest increase in their vote share - up by 0.6% on 2019 when the party comprised of just 11 MPs and then-leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

Undoubtedly, the sharp increase can be attributed to two main factors, in addition to the Conservative collapse.

The first is a ruthless targeting of potential seats and the intentional disproportionate pouring of funds and resources in those constituencies.

Secondly, the Lib Dems benefited from tactical voting as primarily Labour voters lended their vote in order to see a Conservative opponent beaten.

In fairness to the Lib Dems, the extent of tactical voting is often overstated - and, even in their south west heartland where they made many of their gains, Labour also did historically well and won all sorts of seats which it has never held before.

Now, it is not particularly remarkable that the Conservatives hold no seats in the north east or Cumbria, or that they have been wiped out altogether in Wales.

However, the fact that the Tories have just four MPs in Devon and none at all in Cornwall is noteworthy.

Indeed, it has had the effect of reducing the Conservative representation to suburbs of London and Birmingham, and some remaining true blue constituencies in rural parts of Yorkshire and the south.

Meanwhile, across the country, the Conservatives faced a further wholly different type of opponent in a significant change to the 2019 election.

In 2019, Nigel Farage - then as leader of the Brexit Party - was satisfied by the offer made by Conservative leader Mr Johnson to "get Brexit done", and stood down candidates in seats which the Tories were defending to prevent a split in the right-wing vote.

This time, there was no such deal between Mr Farage and the Tory leader Mr Sunak - and the Reform Party responded by biting huge chunks out of the Conservative vote all around the country.

Lee Anderson retained Ashfield, having originally won it for the Conservatives in 2019, former leader Richard Tice took Boston and Skegness, former Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe gained Great Yarmouth, and the far less heralded James McMurdock won South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The big news, though, was the entry into Parliament for the first time by Mr Farage - who, at the eighth attempt to gain a seat at Westminster, finally won in Clacton.

Beyond those constituencies, Reform finished second in 98 seats, wreaking havoc primarily upon the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to achieve a whole slew of narrow victories.

As such, the 2024 General Election result exposed the truly perverse nature of the First Past The Post system.

For, while Labour, on average, picked up one seat for around every 23,000 votes, Reform took 823,000 votes for each MP.

Now, pure proportional representation (PR) has its own inherent weakness in that it encourages individual parties to take an approach in thinking which is far too narrow merely so that they can secure votes from their base.

Meanwhile, studies into the Alternative Vote (AV) - already rejected thoroughly in a referendum in 2011 - showed that it had the potential to produce outcomes which were even less proportionate than First Past The Post (FPTP).

Perhaps then, the solution lies in the Additional-Member System (AMS) which is familiar to voters in Scotland and Wales as it is used to elect the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

AMS - like the current FPTP system - has a constituency vote first of all so that there is still a clear link between the public and its local representative.

In contrast to FPTP, though, AMS has a second set of votes - these are divided by the number of constituencies won on the first ballot, therefore parties with fewer seats in that first ballot benefit in the second set by taking more top-up seats.

There are, of course, still more seats available on the first ballot conducted under FPTP; however the second ballot has the effect of making a legislature far more representative of the overall votes than a FPTP-only election.

Undoubtedly, Labour will argue - with good reason - that there are far more pressing issues surrounding the state of public services after 14 years of Tory rule.

But the democratic deficit in the British system is a major issue in itself in that it feeds bitterness and cynicism which then naturally extends to perceptions about government action, or a lack of it, on matters like immigration.

Yet it is not just Reform on the right wing from which Labour will come under pressure, based on these election results.

Former leader Mr Corbyn - suspended by Labour after asserting that the scale of antisemitism in the party had been overstated for political reasons - stood instead as an independent and, with a huge personal vote of 24,120, retained the Islington North seat which he has held since 1983.

Elsewhere, the Green Party may only have taken four seats - but that is still quadruple of the previous representation based upon on a slither of the media interest afforded to Reform.

Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay were elected in Bristol Central and Waveney Valley - and it is hoped by Green supporters that, through their dual presence, they can increase the profile of the party while also moving on from the Caroline Lucas era.

Meanwhile, Mr Starmer's predictably cautious approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict undoubtedly cost him several seats as four independent Muslim candidates - Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, and Ayoub Khan - won in Leicester South, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Batley, and Birmingham Perry Barr.

Normally, a huge majority would leave a leader with little concern over fringe issues - and at least there should be little noise from the Scottish National Party in the next term after it was reduced from 48 seats into single figures on nine.

But, while Mr Starmer has hundreds of seats in the House of Commons, he also has a low personal popularity ratings and a lack of mandate outside of the Westminster bubble.

As such, the new government will need to make a significant early impact to avoid coming under pressure from an impatient and an increasingly electorally volatile British public.


GENERAL ELECTION 2024
Labour majority of 172


SCOREBOARDSeatsDiffVotes%Diff%
•Labour411(+209)33.8%(+1.7%)
•Conservatives121(-244)23.7%(-19.9%)
•Lib Dems72(+61)12.2%(+0.6%)
•Scottish Nationals9(-39)2.5%(-1.3%)
•Green Party4(+3)6.8%(+4.1%)
•Reform Party5(+5)14.3%(+12.3%)
•Plaid Cymru4(-)0.7%(+0.2%)
•Others24(+5)5.4%
Turnout 59.9% (-7.4%)

EXIT POLL • CON 131 • LAB 410 • LD 61 • RFM 13 • SNP 10 • OTH 25


EAST MIDLANDS
Amber Valley - Ashfield - Bassetlaw - Bolsover - Boston and Skegness - Broxtowe - Chesterfield - Corby and East Northamptonshire - Daventry - Derby North - Derby South - Derbyshire Dales - Erewash - Gainsborough - Gedling - Grantham and Bourne - Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - High Peak - Hinckley and Bosworth - Kettering - Leicester East - Leicester South - Leicester West - Lincoln - Loughborough - Louth and Horncastle - Mansfield - Melton and Syston - Mid Derbyshire - Mid Leicestershire - Newark - North East Derbyshire - North West Leicestershire - Northampton North - Northampton South - Nottingham East - Nottingham North and Kimberley - Nottingham South - Rushcliffe - Rutland and Stamford - Sherwood Forest - Sleaford and North Hykeham - South Derbyshire - South Holland and The Deepings - South Leicestershire - South Northamptonshire - Wellingborough and Rushden

EAST
Basildon and Billericay - Bedford - Braintree - Brentwood and Ongar - Broadland and Fakenham - Broxbourne - Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Cambridge - Castle Point - Central Suffolk and North Ipswich - Chelmsford - Clacton - Colchester - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard - Ely and East Cambridgeshire - Epping Forest - Great Yarmouth - Harlow - Harpenden and Berkhamsted - Harwick and North Essex - Hemel Hempstead - Hertford and Stortford - Hertsmere - Hitchin - Huntingdon - Ipswich - Lowestoft - Luton North - Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Maldon - Mid Bedfordshire - Mid Norfolk - North Bedfordshire - North East Cambridgeshire - North East Hertfordshire - North Norfolk - North West Cambridgeshire - North West Essex - North West Norfolk - Norwich North - Norwich South - Peterborough - Rayleigh and Wickford - South Basildon and East Thurrock - South Cambridgeshire - South Norfolk - South Suffolk - South West Hertfordshire - South West Norfolk - Southend East and Rochford - Southend West and Leigh - St Albans - St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire - Stevenage - Suffolk Coastal - Thurrock - Watford - Waveney Valley - Welwyn Hatfield - West Suffolk - Witham

LONDON
Barking - Battersea - Beckenham and Penge - Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Bethnal Green and Stepney - Bexleyheath and Crayford - Brent East - Brent West - Brentford and Isleworth - Bromley and Biggin Hill - Carshalton and Wallington - Chelsea and Fulham - Chingford and Woodford Green - Chipping Barnet - Cities of London and Westminster - Clapham and Brixton Hill - Croydon East - Croydon South - Croydon West - Dagenham and Rainham - Dulwich and West Norwood - Ealing Central and Acton - Ealing North - Ealing Southall - East Ham - Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Eltham and Chislehurst - Enfield North - Erith and Thamesmead - Feltham and Heston - Finchley and Golders Green - Greenwich and Woolwich - Hackney North and Stoke Newington - Hackney South and Shoreditch - Hammersmith and Chiswick - Hampstead and Highgate - Harrow East - Harrow West - Hayes and Harlington - Hendon - Holborn and St Pancras - Hornchurch and Upminster - Hornsey and Friern Barnet - Ilford North - Ilford South - Islington North - Islington South and Finsbury - Kensington and Bayswater -  Kingston and Surbiton - Lewisham East - Lewisham North - Lewisham West and East Dulwich - Leyton and Wanstead - Mitcham and Morden - Old Bexley and Sidcup - Orpington - Peckham - Poplar and Limehouse - Putney - Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Richmond Park - Romford - Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - Southgate and Wood Green - Stratford and Bow - Streatham and Croydon North - Sutton and Cheam - Tooting - Tottenham - Twickenham - Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Vauxhall and Camberwell Green - Walthamstow - West Ham and Beckton - Wimbledon

NORTH EAST
Bishop Auckland - Blaydon and Consett - Blyth and Ashington - City of Durham - Cramlington and Killingworth - Darlington - Easington - Gateshead Central and Whickham - Hartlepool - Hexham - Houghton and Sunderland South - Jarrow and Gateshead East - Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland - Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Newcastle upon Tyne North - Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - North Durham - North Northumberland - Redcar - South Shields - Stockton North - Stockton West - Sunderland Central - Tynemouth - Washington and Gateshead South

NORTH WEST
Altrincham and Sale West - Ashton-under-Lyne - Barrow and Furness - Birkenhead - Blackburn - Blackley and Middleton South - Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Blackpool South - Bolton North East - Bolton South and Walkden - Bolton West - Bootle - Burnley - Bury North - Bury South - Carlisle - Cheadle - Chester North and Neston - Chester South and Eddisbury - Chorley - Congleton - Crewe and Nantwich - Ellesmere Port and Bromborough - Fylde - Gorton and Denton - Hazel Grove - Heywood and Middleton North - Hyndburn - Knowsley - Lancaster and Wyre - Leigh and Atherton - Liverpool Garston - Liverpool Riverside - Liverpool Walton - Liverpool Wavertree - Liverpool West Derby - Macclesfield - Makerfield - Manchester Central - Manchester Rusholme - Manchester Withington - Mid Cheshire - Morecambe and Lunesdale - Oldham East and Saddleworth - Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton - Pendle and Clitheroe - Penrith and Solway - Preston - Ribble Valley - Rochdale - Rossendale and Darwen - Runcorn and Helsby - Salford - Sefton Central - South Ribble - Southport - St Helens North - St Helens South and Whiston - Stalybridge and Hyde - Stockport - Stretford and Urmston - Tatton - Wallasey - Warrington North - Warrington South - West Lancashire - Westmorland and Lonsdale - Whitehaven and Workington - Widnes and Halewood - Wigan - Wirral West - Worsley and Eccles - Wythenshawe and Sale East

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST
Aldershot - Arundel and South Downs - Ashford - Aylesbury - Banbury - Basingstoke - Beaconsfield - Bexhill and Battle -  Bicester and Woodstock - Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Bracknell - Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven - Brighton Pavilion - Buckingham and Bletchley - Canterbury - Chatham and Aylesford - Chesham and Amersham - Chichester - Crawley - Dartford - Didcot and Wantage - Dorking and Horley - Dover and Deal - Earley and Woodley - East Grinstead and Uckfield - East Hampshire - East Surrey - East Thanet - East Worthing and Shoreham - Eastbourne - Eastleigh - Epsom and Ewell - Esher and Walton - Fareham and Waterlooville - Farnham and Bordon - Faversham and Mid Kent - Folkstone and Hythe - Gillingham and Rainham - Godalming and Ash - Gosport - Gravesham - Guildford - Hamble Valley - Hastings and Rye - Havant - Henley and Thame - Herne Bay and Sandwich - Horsham - Hove and Portslade - Isle of Wight East - Isle of Wight West - Lewes - Maidenhead - Maidstone and Malling - Mid Buckinghamshire - Mid Sussex - Milton Keynes Central - Milton Keynes North - New Forest East - New Forest West - Newbury - North East Hampshire - North West Hampshire - Oxford East - Oxford West and Abingdon - Portsmouth North - Portsmouth South - Reading Central - Reading West and Mid Berkshire - Reigate - Rochester and Strood - Romsey and Southampton North - Runnymede and Weybridge - Sevenoaks - Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Slough - Southampton Itchen - Southampton Test - Spelthorne - Surrey Heath - Sussex Weald - Tonbridge - Tunbridge Wells - Weald of Kent - Winchester - Windsor - Witney - Woking - Wokingham - Worthing West - Wycombe

SOUTH WEST
Bath - Bournemouth East - Bournemouth West - Bridgwater - Bristol Central - Bristol East - Bristol North East - Bristol North West - Bristol South - Camborne and Redruth - Central Devon - Cheltenham - Chippenham - Christchurch - East Wiltshire - Exeter - Exmouth and Exeter East - Filton and Bradley Stoke - Forest of Dean - Frome and East Somerset - Glastonbury and Somerton - Gloucester - Honiton and Sidmouth - Melksham and Devizes - Mid Dorset and North Poole - Newton Abbot - North Cornwall - North Cotswolds - North Devon - North Dorset - North East Somerset and Hanham - North Somerset - Plymouth Moor View - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Poole - Salisbury - South Cotswolds - South Devon - South Dorset - South East Cornwall - South West Devon - South West Wiltshire - St Austell and Newquay - St Ives - Stroud - Swindon North - Swindon South - Taunton and Wellington - Tewkesbury - Thornbury and Yate - Tiverton and Minehead - Torbay - Torridge and Tavistock - Truro and Falmouth - Wells and Mendip Hills - West Dorset - Weston-super-Mare - Yeovil

WEST MIDLANDS
Aldridge-Brownhills - Birmingham Edgbaston - Birmingham Erdington - Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - Birmingham Ladywood - Birmingham Northfield - Birmingham Perry Barr - Birmingham Selly Oak - Birmingham Yardley - Bromsgrove - Burton and Uttoxeter - Cannock Chase - Coventry East - Coventry North West - Coventry South - Droitwich and Evesham - Dudley - Halesowen - Hereford and South Herefordshire - Kenilworth and Southam - Kingswinford and South Staffordshire - Lichfield - Meriden and Solihull East - Newcastle-under-Lyme - North Herefordshire - North Shropshire - North Warwickshire and Bedworth - Nuneaton - Redditch - Rugby - Shrewsbury - Smethwick - Solihull West and Shirley - South Shropshire - Stafford - Staffordshire Moorlands - Stoke-on-Trent Central - Stoke-on-Trent North - Stoke-on-Trent South - Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - Stourbridge - Stratford-on-Avon - Sutton Coldfield - Tamworth - Telford - The Wrekin - Tipton and Wednesbury - Walsall and Bloxwich - Warwick and Leamington - West Bromwich - West Worcestershire - Wolverhampton North East - Wolverhampton South East - Wolverhampton West - Worcester - Wyre Forest

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Barnsley North - Barnsley South - Beverley and Holderness - Bradford East - Bradford South - Bradford West - Bridlington and The Wolds - Brigg and Immingham - Calder Valley - Colne Valley - Dewsbury and Batley - Doncaster Central - Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme - Doncaster North - Goole and Pocklington - Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Halifax - Harrogate and Knaresborough - Huddersfield - Keighley and Ilkley - Kingston upon Hull East - Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - Leeds Central and Headingley - Leeds East - Leeds North East - Leeds North West - Leeds South - Leeds South West and Morley - Leeds West and Pudsey - Normanton and Hemsworth - Ossett and Denby Dale - Penistone and Stocksbridge - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Richmond and Northallerton - Rother Valley - Rotherham - Scarborough and Whitby - Scunthorpe - Selby - Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Sheffield Central - Sheffield Hallam - Sheffield Heeley - Sheffield South East - Shipley - Skipton and Ripon - Spen Valley - Thirsk and Malton - Wakefield and Rothwell - Wetherby and Easingwold - York Central - York Outer

SCOTLAND
Aberdeen North - Aberdeen South - Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - Airdrie and Shotts - Alloa and Grangemouth - Angus and Perthshire Glens - Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - Bathgate and Linlithgow - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Central Ayrshire - Coatbridge and Bellshill - Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - Dumfries and Galloway - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - Dundee Central - Dunfermline and Dollar - East Kilbride and Strathaven - East Renfrewshire - Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - Edinburgh North and Leith - Edinburgh South - Edinburgh South West - Edinburgh West - Falkirk - Glasgow East - Glasgow North - Glasgow North East - Glasgow South - Glasgow South West - Glasgow West - Glenrothes and Mid Fife - Gordon and Buchan - Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - Kilmarnock and Loudoun - Livingston - Lothian East - Mid Dunbartonshire - Midlothian - Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - Na h-Eileanan an Iar - North Ayrshire and Arran - North East Fife - Orkney and Shetland - Paisley and Renfrewshire North - Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Perth and Kinross-shire - Rutherglen - Stirling and Strathallan - West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - West Dunbartonshire

WALES
Aberafan Maesteg - Alyn and Deeside - Bangor Aberconwy - Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Bridgend - Caerfyrddin - Caerphilly - Cardiff East - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Ceredigion Preseli - Clwyd East - Clwyd North - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Gower - Llanelli - Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Monmouthshire - Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Neath and Swansea East - Newport East - Newport West and Islwyn - Pontypridd - Rhondda and Ogmore - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham - Ynys Mon

Thursday, 4 July 2024

General Election 2024: A re-alignment in waiting

TIME is almost up. It has been 43 days since Rishi Sunak stood out in the pissing rain in Downing Street and announced his decision to call a General Election.

Frankly the optics that day were terrible for Mr Sunak and the campaign has got little better for the Conservatives since then.

It is thought that the decision to go to the polls was made on the back of the announcement by the Office of National Statistics that inflation had finally almost dropped to the all-important 2% target.

But, after 14 years of often chaotic Conservative-led government, the opinion polls suggest the public is no longer in the mood to accept such tiny morsels. 

Instead, most polling companies continue to show the same sort of significant Labour leads which began at the tail-end of the scandal-ridden Boris Johnson era in which Mr Sunak was Chancellor. 

Moreover, for the first time since 2005, The Sun newspaper - known for wanting to back the winner - has endorsed Labour. 

It is a far cry from December 2019 when Mr Johnson won a comfortable 80-seat majority on the back of his promise to get Brexit done.

Even, as recently as May 2021, Mr Johnson eyed "a decade in power", according to the Times, as the Conservatives basked in the success of roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

But then came Partygate. And the sale of contracts for personal protection equipment to Tory donors. And the Chris Pincher groping scandal - and so much more. 

In the meantime, Labour had installed a leader in Sir Keir Starmer who was more palatable to Middle England than left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. 

Next came the financial upheaval caused by the mini-Budget announced by Liz Truss's Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng during her 49-day tenure, the shortest on record for a Prime Minister. 

Yet nothing which Mr Sunak has done since his own elevation on 25 October 2022 - which appears to have been very little - has even as much as threatened to turn the tide.

Indeed, the only noticeable shift in the polls during the election period has gone against the Conservatives following the re-entry of former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

Mr Farage entered the election in typically dramatic style, taking over the leadership of the insurgent Reform Party from Richard Tice on 3 June and announcing his candidacy in the Clacton constituency.

Remarkably, it is the eighth time that Mr Farage has stood for election to the House of Commons - and he has failed to win on the previous seven occasions in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2015.

But this time feels different - long-standing political pundits are struggling to remember a government quite as unpopular as the Sunak administration, and there is a likelihood that Reform will take a select few seats.

Ultimately, any greater impact by Reform will be stymied by the First Past The Post system - which a referendum held on 5 May 2011 agreed to keep in place over the Alternative Vote.

Instead, if the Labour vote is as efficient as suggested by some forecasts, a largely evenly-spread Reform vote across England and Wales would be likely to cause change in all sorts of Conservative seats which would not be considered, in all normality, to be marginal.

For sure, Mr Sunak appears to be running scared of this scenario and given up the fight, even going as far as to appeal to his followers on X/Twitter on the eve of the election to "stop the [Labour] supermajority".

It really was an astounding message for an incumbent Prime Minister to send out. 

Of course, it is not just Labour and Reform which the Conservatives need to worry about, though.

The Liberal Democrats were massively hit by their association with the Tories in the austerity-driven coalition between 2010 and 2015. 

But recent big-swing by-election and council election victories have shown Ed Davey's party has begun to recover ground in their traditional heartlands in the South West of England and the outskirts of London.

Some forecasts have even suggested that a particularly efficient spread of the Lib Dem vote in the south would turn Ed Davey's party into the Official Opposition and reduce the Conservatives to double figures in terms of seats.

That still seems fanciful - but what is not in doubt is the fact that the Tories are in big trouble.

Already it seems to have been generally accepted that the Conservatives are facing a 1997-style defeat when Labour under Tony Blair began three full terms of government with a stonking majority of 179.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the Conservative cohort being reduced to fewer than 100 MPs cannot be ruled out altogether.

In turn, that might signal the beginning of the end of its current guise as a political behemoth which has dominated British politics for huge stretches of time since its formation in 1834.

Certainly, Reform will be hoping to win enough seats to present itself as a legitimate offering on the political right - and, while fully-fledged political collapses are pretty rare, they are also not unprecedented. 

In the 1993 federal election in Canada, the centre-right Progressive Conservatives had their outright majority reduced to two seats. 

More recently, in the Presidential and legislative elections in France in 2017, it was the turn of the centre-left Parti Socialiste to fall away into insignificance. 

Even in the UK itself, it is not a complete unknown - although it is 114 years since a badly-divided Liberal Party collapsed from power in 1910.

Neither that party nor any of its successors have ever come close to holding a majority again, though.


GENERAL ELECTION 2024 THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

▪️ The exit poll

For people who are not complete political nerds intent on pulling an all-nighters, just staying up until 10pm - when the polls officially close - may well suffice given its improving accuracy. That will signal the release of the exit poll - a pooled effort by BBC, ITV and Sky in around 150 key constituencies - where voters are asked which candidate they voted for. The exit poll accurately assessed in 2017 that Theresa May had lost her majority and also that the Conservatives remained the largest party - while, in 2019, it pointed towards a Conservative majority of 86 under Boris Johnson which ended up being 80. In 2010, the exit poll was actually almost spot-on in predicting the number of seats won by each of the main parties as David Cameron fell short of a majority. And, even though in 2015 it failed to pick the Conservatives majority under Mr Cameron, it still correctly showed the Tories had won far more seats than the polls during the campaign had suggested.

▪️ Overall turnout

Turnout at General Elections hovvered between 70-80% for most of the 20th Century but, since the turn of the Millennium, it has dropped to 60-70%. In 2001, in an election dubbed Labour's "quiet landslide", turnout fell as low as 59.4% - although it has been at a rather heathlier 68.8% and 67.3% in the two most recent General Elections in 2017 and 2019. A lower turnout than usual this time could spell more trouble for the Conservatives if it is their disenchanted supporters who have declined the invitation to attend the ballot box. 

▪️ New boundaries and notional majorities

The outgoing Parliament finally voted on the recommendations made by the Boundary Commission, meaning this General Election will be the first to be contested under the new boundaries. To the casual observer, it will mean for many voters that they will be voting in a constituency which has changed its name. More than that, though, the geography of the new seat will be, in some cases, significantly different to its predecessor - and that leads us onto notional majorities. A notional majority is a calculation made to determine what an election result would have been in a previous election if the newly-created boundaries had been in place then. Originally, the boundary changes were expected to benefit the Conservatives slightly more than the other parties as the Commission's findings account for population movement which is generally from the north to the south, where more Conservative support is based. Such has been the steepness of the decline in the popularity of the Tories, though, that - beyond a new set of seat names - the changes will have a negligible effect. 

▪️ Big fish

It is something of a mark of the chaos of the previous Parliament that, between the elections of 2019 and 2024, there have been three Prime Ministers, five Chancellors of the Exchequer, four Home Secretaries, and four Foreign Secretaries in the four Great Offices of State, as shown below. Several of these figures are not standing for re-election while current Foreign Secretary David Cameron sits in the House of Lords. But might Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, James Cleverly or even Rishi Sunak produce a moment to rival that of the deposition of Michael Portillo in 1997?

Prime MinisterChancellorHome SecretaryForeign Secretary
Boris Johnson
(2019 to 06-Sep-2022)






Sajid Javid
(2019 to 13-Feb-2020)
Rishi Sunak
(13-Feb-2020 to 05-Jul-2022)
Nadhim Zahawi
(05-Jul-2022 to 06-Sep-2022)
Priti Patel
(2019 to 06-Sep-2022)






Dominic Raab
(2019 to 15-Sep-2021)
Liz Truss
(15-Sep-2021 to 06-Sep-2022)



Liz Truss
(06-Sep-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)


Kwasi Kwarteng
(06-Sep-2022 to 14-Oct-2022) 
Jeremy Hunt
(since 14-Oct-2022)

Suella Braverman

(06-Sep-2022 to 19-Oct-2022)
Grant Shapps
(19-Oct-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)
James Cleverly
(06-Sep-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)


Rishi Sunak
(since 25-Oct-2022)



Suella Braverman

(25-Oct-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)
James Cleverly
(since 13-Nov-2023)
Baron (David) Cameron
(since 13-Nov-2023)









▪️ Number of Conservative seats, size of Labour majority

Labour won 418 seats under Tony Blair at the 1997 General Election for a majority of 179 - while the Conservatives under John Major were reduced to 165. The Tories had fared worse only in 1906, when they took only 131 seats - yet there is speculation, even among dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives, that one or more of these records could be broken. 

▪️ Number of seats won by Liberal Democrats, Reform, and Green Party

The First Past The Post system encourages dominance by two parties by its very nature and makes it difficult for smaller parties to make much impact at a General Election. Over the years, the Lib Dems often punched above the weight of their overall vote by pouring their resources into select target seats - and the Green Party and Reform appear to be following suit. Mainly appealing to those on the left-wing who are disaffected by the centrist shift of the Labour leadership, the Greens have set their sights on Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, as well as holding Brighton Pavilion despite the retirement of four-term MP Caroline Lucas. Meanwhile, Reform will look to have attracted people disenchanted with politics generally - and, as well as holding Ashfield which the party gained in March 2024 as a result of the defection of Lee Anderson, leader Nigel Farage is aiming to make it into Parliament at the eighth time of asking as MP for Clacton. Other targets for Reform include Boston and Skegness, Basildon and Billericay and Great Yarmouth. 

▪️ Number of seats won by the Scottish Nationalist Party

Up to this point, this preview has focused on seats in England and Wales - but the situation in Scotland is slightly different. There, Labour again appears to be benefiting from a collapse in support of a scandal-hit ruling party, except in this case that party is the Scottish Nationalists, and not the Conservatives. The SNP has been in power in the Scottish Parliament since 2007, and has won the most seats north of the border in the last three General Elections - but it faces the outcome of an ongoing investigation by Police Scotland into possible fundraising fraud. Prior to SNP surge, during the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown era, Scotland was a bedrock of Labour support - and polling suggests Sir Keir Starmer has begun to recover much of the lost ground in Central Belt. Still, in contrast to the so-called Red Wall in England and large parts of Wales which are expected to return fully to the Labour fold, the political outlook in Scotland looks set to be finely balanced - and the SNP will aim to limit their losses after a rough few years. 

Sunday, 9 May 2021

Labour holds London but loses in Hartlepool and heartlands


LABOUR leader Sir Keir Starmer completed an unconvincing Shadow Cabinet reshuffle this week after his party suffered yet another difficult election night last Thursday.

The by-election defeat in Hartlepool removed another brick from the Red Wall which Mr Starmer had vowed to rebuild when he took over from Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020. 

Instead, Jill Mortimer became the first Conservative to be elected MP in the County Durham town since 1959 when Cliff Richard was top of the UK Singles' Charts with Living Doll.

Indeed, this result - and many others in council elections around England - shows Labour is still heading backwards at a significant rate in its former heartlands in the north and the midlands.

Labour lost its majorities in County Durham, Sheffield and West Lancashire, while the control of the councils in Harlow and Southampton moved directly from Labour to the Conservatives. 

For a party which has now been in power in Westminster for 11 years, the Tories enjoyed an extraordinarily good night, also gaining control in 14 other areas including Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, and Nuneaton and Bedworth.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives restricted their own losses to just three areas, and all of them to no overall control, rather than directly to Labour. 

This was indeed a defining victory in England for Conservative leader and incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson - and proof that the General Election which brought him a majority of 80 in December 2019 had been no fluke.

Of course, Mr Johnson is currently riding the crest of a wave created by a vaccine roll-out which has been among the best in the world and which has allowed restrictions in the UK to be lifted, albeit still cautiously. 

More pertinently for Labour, though, Mr Johnson will simply always hold an advantage over the main opposition party which - even after so long out of power - seems intent on tearing itself apart.

In fairness, it was not all bad news for Labour. Mark Drakeford's Welsh Labour increased the party's seat share in the Senedd, taking exactly half of the 60 seats on offer overall to remain in power. 

Andy Burnham scored a thumping victory in the Manchester mayoral contest while Labour also gained the mayoralities in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and in the West of England. 

Sadiq Khan retained his position as Mayor of London, albeit on a slightly-reduced vote - and Labour candidate Tracy Brabin will now depart her Westminster seat of Batley and Spen after she convincingly won the newly-created West Yorkshire mayorality.

North of the border, though, it is the Scottish National Party which continues to dominate the political scene after a fourth successive win. 

This time, the SNP took no fewer than 62 of the 73 constituencies - and 64 seats overall - to fall short of a majority by just one.

But that slight shortfall will not worry the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon as her allies in the Scottish Green Party still gave her a pro-independence majority at Holyrood in any case.

More importantly, Ms Sturgeon can expect that this nod of approval from the Scottish people will close off the most difficult period of her six-and-a-half-year premiership so far. 

Back in March, an independent report found that Ms Sturgeon had not breached the ministerial code during the Scottish government's botched handling of sexual harassment complaints against her predecessor Alec Salmond.

However, a separate inquiry by MSPs has described the government's actions as "deeply flawed", and questioned some of Ms Sturgeon's evidence.

The row between Mr Salmond and Ms Sturgeon began when allegations of sexual harassment - strongly denied - were made against the former leader by two female civil servants in 2018.

Those complaints were made after Ms Sturgeon asked for new government policies on sexual harassment to be put in place in the wake of the #MeToo movement. 

Mr Salmond believed the policy was aimed at him, and the Scottish government eventually admitted it had acted unlawfully with the result that it had to pay his legal fees which totalled more than £500,000.

It did not end there. In January 2019, Mr Salmond was arrested and charged with multiple counts of sexual assault, including attempted rape.

At the trial in March 2020, Mr Salmond was acquitted of all 13 charges - and, in court, he said the claims made about his alleged conduct were "deliberate fabrications for a political purpose", or "exaggerations".

Mr Salmond has since claimed there was a "deliberate, prolonged, malicious and concerted effort" from some in the Scottish government and leading SNP figures to damage him and even have him sent to prison.

However, Ms Sturgeon has accused him of peddling false conspiracy theories and suggested her predecessor is angry because she "did not collude with him" to make the sexual harassment allegations "go away".

Subsequently, in the run-up to these elections, Mr Salmond helped form the Alba Party as a rival independence-supporting front. 

Far from significantly splitting the pro-indy vote, though, Mr Salmond's new outfit polled only 2% and therefore failed to take any seats. 

It feels certain then, with the Brexit process behind us - if not the effects - and with the coronavirus recovery now in full swing, the next chapter of politics will focus on two competing visions of nationalism. 

On the one hand, there is a British version offered by the Union flag-bearing Mr Johnson - and, on the other, a Scottish version offered by the Saltire-spreading Ms Sturgeon. 

All the while, Labour appears destined to remain on the sidelines, hopelessly split into two or more factions, without either fully splitting or, conversely, cobbling together the so-called Progressive Alliance which it clearly now so badly needs.

🗳️

ELECTION RESULTS BREAKDOWN


• HARTLEPOOL •LABCONLDMGRNOTH  
ELECTED MP
By-election 
28.7%51.9%1.2%
1.2%
17.0%Jill Mortimer (CON)
Change 
(-9.0%)(+23.0%)(-2.9%)
(+1.2%)
(+12.3%)

Conservative gain from Labour

🗳️

• ENGLAND •    CONLABLDMGRNOTHNOC
Councils634470029

+13-8+1---6
Councillors23451345586151308

+235-326+7+88-4
Projected National Share
36%29%17%
18%

(+8%)(+1%)(-2%)
(-7%)

• UNITARY AUTHORITIES AND METROPOLITAN BOROUGHS
• Conservatives
Buckinghamshire - Cornwall - Dudley - North East Lincolnshire - North Northamptonshire - Northumberland - Shropshire - Solihull - Southampton - Swindon - Thurrock - Walsall - West Northamptonshire - Wiltshire - Wokingham
• Labour
Barnsley - Bradford - Bury - Calderdale - Coventry - Doncaster - Gateshead - Halton - Knowsley - Leeds - Liverpool - Manchester - Newcastle upon Tyne - North Tyneside - Oldham - Rochdale - Rotherham - Salford - Sandwell - Sefton - South Tyneside - St Helens - Sunderland - Tameside - Trafford - Wakefield - Warrington - Wigan - Wolverhampton
• No Overall Control
Bolton - Bristol - County Durham - Derby - Hartlepool - Isle of Wight - Kirklees - Milton Keynes - Peterborough - Plymouth - Portsmouth - Sheffield - Southend - Stockport - Wirral

• COUNTY COUNCILS
• Conservatives
Derbyshire - Devon - East Sussex - Essex - Gloucestershire - Hampshire - Hertfordshire - Kent - Lancashire - Leicestershire - Lincolnshire - Norfolk - Nottinghamshire - Staffordshire - Suffolk - Surrey - Warwickshire - West Sussex - Worcestershire
• No Overall Control
Cambridgeshire - Oxfordshire

• DISTRICT COUNCILS
• Conservatives
Adur - Amber Valley - Basildon - Basingstoke and Deane - Brentwood - Broxbourne - Cannock Chase - Cherwell - Epping Forest - Fareham - Gloucester - Gosport - Harlow - Havant - Maidstone - Nuneaton and Bedworth - Pendle - Redditch - Reigate and Banstead - Rochford - Rugby - Runnymede - Rushmoor - Tamworth - Welwyn Hatfield - West Oxfordshire - Worcester - Worthing

• Labour
Cambridge - Chorley - Exeter - Hastings - Hyndburn - Ipswich - Lincoln - Norwich - Oxford - Preston - Stevenage
• Liberal Democrats
Cheltenham - Eastleigh - Mole Valley - St Albans - Three Rivers - Watford - Winchester

• Independent
Castle Point
• No Overall Control
Burnley - Colchester - Crawley - Elmbridge - Hart - Norther Hertfordshire - Rossendale - Stroud - Tandridge - Tunbridge Wells - West Lancashire - Woking 

🗳️

• LONDON •    CON
LAB
GRN
LDM
UKIP
OTH
Constituency590000

000
000
Votes
32.0%41.7%13.0%10.3%
3.1%

(+1.0%)(-1.9%)(+3.9%)(+2.8%)
(-5.8%)
Region423200

+1-1
+1+1-20
Votes
30.7%38.1%11.8%7.3%1.0%11.1%

(+1.5%)
(-2.2%)(+3.8%)(+1.0%)(-5.5%)(+1.4%)
TOTAL9113200

+1-1+1+1-2-
Labour (11/25) is two seats short of a majority

• CONSTITUENCY SEATS
• Conservatives 5
Bexley and Bromley - Croydon and Sutton - Havering and Redbridge - South West - West Central
• Labour 9
Barnet and Camden - Brent and Harrow - City and East - Ealing and Hillingdon - Enfield and Haringey - Greenwich and Lewisham - Lambeth and Southwark - Merton and Wandsworth - North East

🗳️

• SCOTLAND •    SNPCONLABGRNLDMOTH
Constituency6252040

+3-2-1
000
Votes
47.7%21.9%21.6%1.3%6.9%0.6%

(+1.2%)(-0.1%)(-1.0%)(+0.7%)(-0.9%)(+0.1%)
Region22620800

-2+2
-1+2-10
Votes
40.3%23.5%17.9%8.1%5.1%5.1%

(-1.4%)
(+0.6%)(-1.2%)(+1.5%)(-0.1%)(+0.6%)
TOTAL643122840

+1--2+2-1-
Scottish National Party (64/129) is one seat short of a majority

• CONSTITUENCY SEATS
• Scottish National Party 62
Aberdeen Central - Aberdeen Donside - Aberdeen South and North Kincardine - Aberdeenshire East - Airdrie and Shotts - Almond Valley - Angus North and Mearns - Angus South - Argyll and Bute - Ayr - Banffshire & Buchan Coast - Caithness, Sutherland and Ross - Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley - Clackmannanshire and Dunblane - Clydebank and Milngavie - Clydesdale - Coatbridge and Chryston - Cowdenbeath - Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Cunninghame North - Cunninghame South - Dundee City East - Dundee City West - Dunfermline - East Kilbride - East Lothian - Edinburgh Central - Edinburgh Eastern - Edinburgh Northern and Leith - Edinburgh Pentlands - Falkirk East - Falkirk West - Glasgow Anniesland - Glasgow Cathcart - Glasgow Kelvin - Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn - Glasgow Pollok - Glasgow Provan - Glasgow Shettleston - Glasgow Southside - Greenock and Inverclyde - Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse - Inverness and Nairn - Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley - Kirkcaldy - Linlithgow - Mid Fife and Glenrothes - Midlothian North and Musselburgh - Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale - Moray - Motherwell and Wishaw - Na h-Eileanan an Iar - Paisley - Perthshire North - Perthshire South and Kinross-shire - Renfrewshire North and West - Renfrewshire South - Rutherglen - Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch - Stirling - Strathkelvin and Bearsden - Uddingston and Bellshill
• Conservatives 5
Aberdeenshire West - Dumfriesshire - Eastwood - Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire - Galloway and West Dumfries
• Liberal Democrats 4
Edinburgh Western - North East Fife - Orkney - Shetland
• Labour 2
Dumbarton - Edinburgh Southern

🗳️

• WALES •    LABCONPCLDMGRNOTH
Constituency2785000

0+2-1-100
Votes
39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%7.2%

(+5.2%)(+5.0%)(-0.2%)(-2.8%)(-0.9%)(-6.3%)
Region388100

+1+3+2+10-7
Votes
36.2%25.1%20.7%4.3%4.4%9.3%

(+4.7%)
(+6.3%)(-0.1%)(-2.2%)(+1.4%)(-10.1%)
TOTAL301613100

+1+5+1---7
Labour (30/60) is one seat short of a majority

• CONSTITUENCY SEATS
• Labour 27
Aberavon - Alyn and Deeside - Blaenau Gwent - Bridgend - Caerphilly - Cardiff Central - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Clwyd South - Cynon Valley - Delyn - Gower - Islwyn - Llanelli - Mertyhr Tydfil and Rhymney - Neath - Newport East - Newport West - Ogmore - Pontypridd - Rhondda - Swansea East - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham
• Conservatives 8
Aberconwy - Brecon and Radnorshire - Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire - Clwyd West  - Monmouth - Montgomeryshire - Preseli Pembrokeshire - Vale of Clwyd
• Plaid Cymru 5
Arfon - Carmarthen East and Dinefwr - Ceredigion - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Ynys Mon

🗳️

• ELECTED MAYORS •LABCONLDMGRNOTH  
ELECTED MAYOR
[1] LONDON
55.2%44.8%


Sadiq Khan (LAB)
[2] Bristol
56.5%43.5%


Marvis Rees (LAB)
[3] Cambridgeshire & Peterborough
51.3%48.7%


Nik Johnson (LAB gain)
[4] Doncaster
59.8%
40.2%



Ros Jones (LAB)
[5] Greater Manchester
67.3%19.6%3.2%4.4%5.5%
Andy Burnham (LAB)
[6] Liverpool
59.2%40.8%


Joanne Anderson (LAB)
[7] Liverpool City Region
58.3%19.6%10.3%11.8%
Steve Rotheram (LAB)
[8] North Tyneside
53.3%31.2%5.7%6.9%2.8%Norma Redfearn (LAB)
[9] Salford
59.0%23.4%3.3%8.8%5.5%Paul Dennett (LAB)
[10] Tees Valley
27.2%72.8%


Ben Houchen (CON)
[11] West Midlands
46.0%54.0%


Andy Street (CON)
[12] West Yorkshire
61.5%38.5%


Tracy Brabin (LAB)
[13] West of England
59.5%40.5%


Dan Norris (LAB gain)

🗳️

• POLICE COMMISSIONERS •LABCONLDM
OTH   
ELECTED
[1] Avon & Somerset
47.6%52.4%


Mark Shelford (CON gain)
[2] Bedfordshire
45.9%54.1%


Festus Akinbusoye (CON)
[3] Cambridgeshire
47.3%52.7%


Darryl Preston (CON)
[4] Cheshire
47.0%
53.0%



John Dwyer (CON gain)
[5] Cleveland
28.9%54.2%4.8%
12.2%
Steve Turner (CON gain)
[6] Cumbria
26.1%53.6%20.4%

Peter McCall (CON)
[7] Derbyshire
44.0%56.0%


Angelique Foster (CON gain)
[8] Devon & Cornwall
34.8%65.2%


Alison Hernandez (CON)
[9] Dorset
38.2%61.8%


David Sidwick (CON gain)
[10] Durham
51.0%49.0%


Joy Allen (LAB)
[11] Dyfed-Powys

45.0%


55.0%
Dafydd Llywelyn (PC)
[12] Essex
22.9%54.0%13.3%
9.8%Roger Hirst (CON)
[13] Gloucestershire

60.4%39.6%

Chris Nelson (CON gain)
[14] Gwent
60.5%39.5%


Jeff Cuthbert (LAB)
[15] Hampshire
31.8%68.2%


Donna Jones (CON)
[16] Hertfordshire
44.7%55.3%


David Lloyd (CON)
[17] Humberside
47.4%
52.6%


Jonathan Evison (CON gain)
[18] Kent
25.3%57.8%17.0%

Matthew Scott (CON)
[19] Lancashire
48.7%51.3%


Andrew Snowden (CON gain)
[20] Leicestershire
43.0%57.0%


Rupert Matthews (CON gain)
[21] Lincolnshire
20.0%59.9%5.9%
14.2%Marc Jones (CON)
[22] Merseyside
56.9%22.9%16.5%
3.7%Emily Spurrell (LAB)
[23] Norfolk
36.7%63.3%



Giles Orpen-Smellie (CON)
[24] Northamptonshire
27.5%53.2%15.3%
4.0%Stephen Mold (CON)
[25] Northumbria
59.6%41.4%


Kim McGuinness (LAB)
[26] North Wales
52.1%47.9%


Andy Dunbobbin (LAB gain)
[27] North Yorkshire
39.0%61.0%


Philip Arlott (CON)
[28] Nottinghamshire
48.6%51.4%


Caroline Henry (CON gain)
[29] South Wales
63.8%36.2%


Alun Michael (LAB)
[30] South Yorkshire
53.9%
32.2%13.8%

Alan Billings (LAB)
[31] Staffordshire
27.5%55.7%4.4%
10.1%
Benedict Adams (CON)
[32] Suffolk
23.0%54.7%8.7%

13.6%
Tim Passmore (CON)
[33] Surrey
42.0%58.0%


Lisa Townsend (CON)
[34] Sussex
34.4%65.6%


Katy Bourne (CON)
[35] Thames Valley
42.7%57.3%


Matthew Barber (CON)
[36] Warwickshire
27.7%52.1%16.2%
4.0%Philip Seccombe (CON)
[37] West Mercia
24.0%55.3%15.7%
5.0%John-Paul Campion (CON)
[38] West Midlands
53.7%46.3%


Simon Foster (LAB)
[39] Wiltshire
36.7%63.3%


NONE - by-election required