General Election 2024 results: Labour wins a "Loveless Landslide"

LABOUR returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a mathematically mind-boggling majority at the 2024 General Election.

Sir Keir Starmer's party took 411 seats, a gain of 209, in a massive victory which almost matched the majority won by Tony Blair in 1997.

But, in a result which has already been termed a "Loveless Landslide", Labour received less than 10 million votes and took just a 33.8% share overall.

That was only modestly up on the 32.1% share received by Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn - who actually received more votes due to the higher turnout four-and-a-half years ago.

Back then, Mr Corbyn led Labour to its worst result in terms of seats since 1935 by piling up thousands of unnecessary additional votes in already rock-solid safe seats.

This time, though, Mr Starmer's broader appeal has resulted in the Labour vote being far more evenly spread across the United Kingdom with such a level of efficiency that any attempt to analyse the outcome using a traditional swingometer was rendered completely useless.

Overall, there was a 10.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour at this election, something which would have resulted in a hung parliament if the movement of votes had been the same across all of the constituencies.

However, that did not happen because, whereas previously the swing change has been pretty evenly matched between Labour gain and Conservative loss (or vice-versa), the swing this time could be almost solely attributed to the collapse in the Tories' vote share.

Indeed, any sort of analysis must begin with the obvious conclusion that this was the most visceral repudiation of the Conservative Party since its formation in 1834.

Frankly, the results of this General Election made the 1997 collapse look like a grand day out, as they received a record-low share of the vote (23.7%) and finished with 121 seats, another record low.

No fewer than 11 Cabinet ministers lost their seats - another record - including Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Perhaps none of these was quite on par with the Portillo moment in 1997, though.

Instead, that belonged to Jacob Rees-Mogg who was roundly defeated who was defeated in North East Somerset and Hanham by Dan Norris of Labour.

Or, more likely still, it was the unceremonious deposing of former Prime Minister Liz Truss whose reluctance to go on stage for her result led to a round of slow handclaps.

Ms Truss - who had a record-short tenure of 49 days as Prime Minister and infamously failed to outlast a lettuce - was defeated in the South West Norfolk constituency by Terry Jermy of Labour on a 26.2% swing. 

Meanwhile, the seats of three other former Conservative Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May - in Witney, Henley and Thame, and Maidenhead respectively - all returned a Liberal Democrat MP.

For the record, none of those former PMs was standing - but the turnover symbolised another big theme of the results of this election: the return of the Lib Dems.

In taking 72 seats, the Lib Dems will hold their biggest representation at the House of Commons since the party was founded in 1988, and the highest number by any Liberal party since 1923.

Yet, they also saw only a modest increase in their vote share - up by 0.6% on 2019 when the party comprised of just 11 MPs and then-leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

Undoubtedly, the sharp increase can be attributed to two main factors, in addition to the Conservative collapse.

The first is a ruthless targeting of potential seats and the intentional disproportionate pouring of funds and resources in those constituencies.

Secondly, the Lib Dems benefited from tactical voting as primarily Labour voters lended their vote in order to see a Conservative opponent beaten.

In fairness to the Lib Dems, the extent of tactical voting is often overstated - and, even in their south west heartland where they made many of their gains, Labour also did historically well and won all sorts of seats which it has never held before.

Now, it is not particularly remarkable that the Conservatives hold no seats in the north east or Cumbria, or that they have been wiped out altogether in Wales.

However, the fact that the Tories have just four MPs in Devon and none at all in Cornwall is noteworthy.

Indeed, it has had the effect of reducing the Conservative representation to suburbs of London and Birmingham, and some remaining true blue constituencies in rural parts of Yorkshire and the south.

Meanwhile, across the country, the Conservatives faced a further wholly different type of opponent in a significant change to the 2019 election.

In 2019, Nigel Farage - then as leader of the Brexit Party - was satisfied by the offer made by Conservative leader Mr Johnson to "get Brexit done", and stood down candidates in seats which the Tories were defending to prevent a split in the right-wing vote.

This time, there was no such deal between Mr Farage and the Tory leader Mr Sunak - and the Reform Party responded by biting huge chunks out of the Conservative vote all around the country.

Lee Anderson retained Ashfield, having originally won it for the Conservatives in 2019, former leader Richard Tice took Boston and Skegness, former Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe gained Great Yarmouth, and the far less heralded James McMurdock won South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The big news, though, was the entry into Parliament for the first time by Mr Farage - who, at the eighth attempt to gain a seat at Westminster, finally won in Clacton.

Beyond those constituencies, Reform finished second in 98 seats, wreaking havoc primarily upon the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to achieve a whole slew of narrow victories.

As such, the 2024 General Election result exposed the truly perverse nature of the First Past The Post system.

For, while Labour, on average, picked up one seat for around every 23,000 votes, Reform took 823,000 votes for each MP.

Now, pure proportional representation (PR) has its own inherent weakness in that it encourages individual parties to take an approach in thinking which is far too narrow merely so that they can secure votes from their base.

Meanwhile, studies into the Alternative Vote (AV) - already rejected thoroughly in a referendum in 2011 - showed that it had the potential to produce outcomes which were even less proportionate than First Past The Post (FPTP).

Perhaps then, the solution lies in the Additional-Member System (AMS) which is familiar to voters in Scotland and Wales as it is used to elect the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

AMS - like the current FPTP system - has a constituency vote first of all so that there is still a clear link between the public and its local representative.

In contrast to FPTP, though, AMS has a second set of votes - these are divided by the number of constituencies won on the first ballot, therefore parties with fewer seats in that first ballot benefit in the second set by taking more top-up seats.

There are, of course, still more seats available on the first ballot conducted under FPTP; however the second ballot has the effect of making a legislature far more representative of the overall votes than a FPTP-only election.

Undoubtedly, Labour will argue - with good reason - that there are far more pressing issues surrounding the state of public services after 14 years of Tory rule.

But the democratic deficit in the British system is a major issue in itself in that it feeds bitterness and cynicism which then naturally extends to perceptions about government action, or a lack of it, on matters like immigration.

Yet it is not just Reform on the right wing from which Labour will come under pressure, based on these election results.

Former leader Mr Corbyn - suspended by Labour after asserting that the scale of antisemitism in the party had been overstated for political reasons - stood instead as an independent and, with a huge personal vote of 24,120, retained the Islington North seat which he has held since 1983.

Elsewhere, the Green Party may only have taken four seats - but that is still quadruple of the previous representation based upon on a slither of the media interest afforded to Reform.

Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay were elected in Bristol Central and Waveney Valley - and it is hoped by Green supporters that, through their dual presence, they can increase the profile of the party while also moving on from the Caroline Lucas era.

Meanwhile, Mr Starmer's predictably cautious approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict undoubtedly cost him several seats as four independent Muslim candidates - Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, and Ayoub Khan - won in Leicester South, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Batley, and Birmingham Perry Barr.

Normally, a huge majority would leave a leader with little concern over fringe issues - and at least there should be little noise from the Scottish National Party in the next term after it was reduced from 48 seats into single figures on nine.

But, while Mr Starmer has hundreds of seats in the House of Commons, he also has a low personal popularity ratings and a lack of mandate outside of the Westminster bubble.

As such, the new government will need to make a significant early impact to avoid coming under pressure from an impatient and an increasingly electorally volatile British public.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Labour majority of 172

	SCOREBOARD	Seats	Diff	Votes%	Diff%
•	Labour	411	(+209)	33.8%	(+1.7%)
•	Conservatives	121	(-244)	23.7%	(-19.9%)
•	Lib Dems	72	(+61)	12.2%	(+0.6%)
•	Scottish Nationals	9	(-39)	2.5%	(-1.3%)
•	Green Party	4	(+3)	6.8%	(+4.1%)
•	Reform Party	5	(+5)	14.3%	(+12.3%)
•	Plaid Cymru	4	(-)	0.7%	(+0.2%)
•	Others	24	(+5)	5.4%

Turnout 59.9% (-7.4%)

EXIT POLL • CON 131 • LAB 410 • LD 61 • RFM 13 • SNP 10 • OTH 25

EAST MIDLANDS
Amber Valley - Ashfield - Bassetlaw - Bolsover - Boston and Skegness - Broxtowe - Chesterfield - Corby and East Northamptonshire - Daventry - Derby North - Derby South - Derbyshire Dales - Erewash - Gainsborough - Gedling - Grantham and Bourne - Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - High Peak - Hinckley and Bosworth - Kettering - Leicester East - Leicester South - Leicester West - Lincoln - Loughborough - Louth and Horncastle - Mansfield - Melton and Syston - Mid Derbyshire - Mid Leicestershire - Newark - North East Derbyshire - North West Leicestershire - Northampton North - Northampton South - Nottingham East - Nottingham North and Kimberley - Nottingham South - Rushcliffe - Rutland and Stamford - Sherwood Forest - Sleaford and North Hykeham - South Derbyshire - South Holland and The Deepings - South Leicestershire - South Northamptonshire - Wellingborough and Rushden

EAST
Basildon and Billericay - Bedford - Braintree - Brentwood and Ongar - Broadland and Fakenham - Broxbourne - Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Cambridge - Castle Point - Central Suffolk and North Ipswich - Chelmsford - Clacton - Colchester - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard - Ely and East Cambridgeshire - Epping Forest - Great Yarmouth - Harlow - Harpenden and Berkhamsted - Harwick and North Essex - Hemel Hempstead - Hertford and Stortford - Hertsmere - Hitchin - Huntingdon - Ipswich - Lowestoft - Luton North - Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Maldon - Mid Bedfordshire - Mid Norfolk - North Bedfordshire - North East Cambridgeshire - North East Hertfordshire - North Norfolk - North West Cambridgeshire - North West Essex - North West Norfolk - Norwich North - Norwich South - Peterborough - Rayleigh and Wickford - South Basildon and East Thurrock - South Cambridgeshire - South Norfolk - South Suffolk - South West Hertfordshire - South West Norfolk - Southend East and Rochford - Southend West and Leigh - St Albans - St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire - Stevenage - Suffolk Coastal - Thurrock - Watford - Waveney Valley - Welwyn Hatfield - West Suffolk - Witham

LONDON
Barking - Battersea - Beckenham and Penge - Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Bethnal Green and Stepney - Bexleyheath and Crayford - Brent East - Brent West - Brentford and Isleworth - Bromley and Biggin Hill - Carshalton and Wallington - Chelsea and Fulham - Chingford and Woodford Green - Chipping Barnet - Cities of London and Westminster - Clapham and Brixton Hill - Croydon East - Croydon South - Croydon West - Dagenham and Rainham - Dulwich and West Norwood - Ealing Central and Acton - Ealing North - Ealing Southall - East Ham - Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Eltham and Chislehurst - Enfield North - Erith and Thamesmead - Feltham and Heston - Finchley and Golders Green - Greenwich and Woolwich - Hackney North and Stoke Newington - Hackney South and Shoreditch - Hammersmith and Chiswick - Hampstead and Highgate - Harrow East - Harrow West - Hayes and Harlington - Hendon - Holborn and St Pancras - Hornchurch and Upminster - Hornsey and Friern Barnet - Ilford North - Ilford South - Islington North - Islington South and Finsbury - Kensington and Bayswater -  Kingston and Surbiton - Lewisham East - Lewisham North - Lewisham West and East Dulwich - Leyton and Wanstead - Mitcham and Morden - Old Bexley and Sidcup - Orpington - Peckham - Poplar and Limehouse - Putney - Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Richmond Park - Romford - Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - Southgate and Wood Green - Stratford and Bow - Streatham and Croydon North - Sutton and Cheam - Tooting - Tottenham - Twickenham - Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Vauxhall and Camberwell Green - Walthamstow - West Ham and Beckton - Wimbledon

NORTH EAST
Bishop Auckland - Blaydon and Consett - Blyth and Ashington - City of Durham - Cramlington and Killingworth - Darlington - Easington - Gateshead Central and Whickham - Hartlepool - Hexham - Houghton and Sunderland South - Jarrow and Gateshead East - Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland - Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Newcastle upon Tyne North - Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - North Durham - North Northumberland - Redcar - South Shields - Stockton North - Stockton West - Sunderland Central - Tynemouth - Washington and Gateshead South

NORTH WEST
Altrincham and Sale West - Ashton-under-Lyne - Barrow and Furness - Birkenhead - Blackburn - Blackley and Middleton South - Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Blackpool South - Bolton North East - Bolton South and Walkden - Bolton West - Bootle - Burnley - Bury North - Bury South - Carlisle - Cheadle - Chester North and Neston - Chester South and Eddisbury - Chorley - Congleton - Crewe and Nantwich - Ellesmere Port and Bromborough - Fylde - Gorton and Denton - Hazel Grove - Heywood and Middleton North - Hyndburn - Knowsley - Lancaster and Wyre - Leigh and Atherton - Liverpool Garston - Liverpool Riverside - Liverpool Walton - Liverpool Wavertree - Liverpool West Derby - Macclesfield - Makerfield - Manchester Central - Manchester Rusholme - Manchester Withington - Mid Cheshire - Morecambe and Lunesdale - Oldham East and Saddleworth - Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton - Pendle and Clitheroe - Penrith and Solway - Preston - Ribble Valley - Rochdale - Rossendale and Darwen - Runcorn and Helsby - Salford - Sefton Central - South Ribble - Southport - St Helens North - St Helens South and Whiston - Stalybridge and Hyde - Stockport - Stretford and Urmston - Tatton - Wallasey - Warrington North - Warrington South - West Lancashire - Westmorland and Lonsdale - Whitehaven and Workington - Widnes and Halewood - Wigan - Wirral West - Worsley and Eccles - Wythenshawe and Sale East

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST
Aldershot - Arundel and South Downs - Ashford - Aylesbury - Banbury - Basingstoke - Beaconsfield - Bexhill and Battle -  Bicester and Woodstock - Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Bracknell - Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven - Brighton Pavilion - Buckingham and Bletchley - Canterbury - Chatham and Aylesford - Chesham and Amersham - Chichester - Crawley - Dartford - Didcot and Wantage - Dorking and Horley - Dover and Deal - Earley and Woodley - East Grinstead and Uckfield - East Hampshire - East Surrey - East Thanet - East Worthing and Shoreham - Eastbourne - Eastleigh - Epsom and Ewell - Esher and Walton - Fareham and Waterlooville - Farnham and Bordon - Faversham and Mid Kent - Folkstone and Hythe - Gillingham and Rainham - Godalming and Ash - Gosport - Gravesham - Guildford - Hamble Valley - Hastings and Rye - Havant - Henley and Thame - Herne Bay and Sandwich - Horsham - Hove and Portslade - Isle of Wight East - Isle of Wight West - Lewes - Maidenhead - Maidstone and Malling - Mid Buckinghamshire - Mid Sussex - Milton Keynes Central - Milton Keynes North - New Forest East - New Forest West - Newbury - North East Hampshire - North West Hampshire - Oxford East - Oxford West and Abingdon - Portsmouth North - Portsmouth South - Reading Central - Reading West and Mid Berkshire - Reigate - Rochester and Strood - Romsey and Southampton North - Runnymede and Weybridge - Sevenoaks - Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Slough - Southampton Itchen - Southampton Test - Spelthorne - Surrey Heath - Sussex Weald - Tonbridge - Tunbridge Wells - Weald of Kent - Winchester - Windsor - Witney - Woking - Wokingham - Worthing West - Wycombe

SOUTH WEST
Bath - Bournemouth East - Bournemouth West - Bridgwater - Bristol Central - Bristol East - Bristol North East - Bristol North West - Bristol South - Camborne and Redruth - Central Devon - Cheltenham - Chippenham - Christchurch - East Wiltshire - Exeter - Exmouth and Exeter East - Filton and Bradley Stoke - Forest of Dean - Frome and East Somerset - Glastonbury and Somerton - Gloucester - Honiton and Sidmouth - Melksham and Devizes - Mid Dorset and North Poole - Newton Abbot - North Cornwall - North Cotswolds - North Devon - North Dorset - North East Somerset and Hanham - North Somerset - Plymouth Moor View - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Poole - Salisbury - South Cotswolds - South Devon - South Dorset - South East Cornwall - South West Devon - South West Wiltshire - St Austell and Newquay - St Ives - Stroud - Swindon North - Swindon South - Taunton and Wellington - Tewkesbury - Thornbury and Yate - Tiverton and Minehead - Torbay - Torridge and Tavistock - Truro and Falmouth - Wells and Mendip Hills - West Dorset - Weston-super-Mare - Yeovil

WEST MIDLANDS
Aldridge-Brownhills - Birmingham Edgbaston - Birmingham Erdington - Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - Birmingham Ladywood - Birmingham Northfield - Birmingham Perry Barr - Birmingham Selly Oak - Birmingham Yardley - Bromsgrove - Burton and Uttoxeter - Cannock Chase - Coventry East - Coventry North West - Coventry South - Droitwich and Evesham - Dudley - Halesowen - Hereford and South Herefordshire - Kenilworth and Southam - Kingswinford and South Staffordshire - Lichfield - Meriden and Solihull East - Newcastle-under-Lyme - North Herefordshire - North Shropshire - North Warwickshire and Bedworth - Nuneaton - Redditch - Rugby - Shrewsbury - Smethwick - Solihull West and Shirley - South Shropshire - Stafford - Staffordshire Moorlands - Stoke-on-Trent Central - Stoke-on-Trent North - Stoke-on-Trent South - Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - Stourbridge - Stratford-on-Avon - Sutton Coldfield - Tamworth - Telford - The Wrekin - Tipton and Wednesbury - Walsall and Bloxwich - Warwick and Leamington - West Bromwich - West Worcestershire - Wolverhampton North East - Wolverhampton South East - Wolverhampton West - Worcester - Wyre Forest

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Barnsley North - Barnsley South - Beverley and Holderness - Bradford East - Bradford South - Bradford West - Bridlington and The Wolds - Brigg and Immingham - Calder Valley - Colne Valley - Dewsbury and Batley - Doncaster Central - Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme - Doncaster North - Goole and Pocklington - Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Halifax - Harrogate and Knaresborough - Huddersfield - Keighley and Ilkley - Kingston upon Hull East - Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - Leeds Central and Headingley - Leeds East - Leeds North East - Leeds North West - Leeds South - Leeds South West and Morley - Leeds West and Pudsey - Normanton and Hemsworth - Ossett and Denby Dale - Penistone and Stocksbridge - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Richmond and Northallerton - Rother Valley - Rotherham - Scarborough and Whitby - Scunthorpe - Selby - Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Sheffield Central - Sheffield Hallam - Sheffield Heeley - Sheffield South East - Shipley - Skipton and Ripon - Spen Valley - Thirsk and Malton - Wakefield and Rothwell - Wetherby and Easingwold - York Central - York Outer

SCOTLAND

Aberdeen North - Aberdeen South - Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - Airdrie and Shotts - Alloa and Grangemouth - Angus and Perthshire Glens - Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - Bathgate and Linlithgow - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Central Ayrshire - Coatbridge and Bellshill - Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - Dumfries and Galloway - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - Dundee Central - Dunfermline and Dollar - East Kilbride and Strathaven - East Renfrewshire - Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - Edinburgh North and Leith - Edinburgh South - Edinburgh South West - Edinburgh West - Falkirk - Glasgow East - Glasgow North - Glasgow North East - Glasgow South - Glasgow South West - Glasgow West - Glenrothes and Mid Fife - Gordon and Buchan - Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - Kilmarnock and Loudoun - Livingston - Lothian East - Mid Dunbartonshire - Midlothian - Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - Na h-Eileanan an Iar - North Ayrshire and Arran - North East Fife - Orkney and Shetland - Paisley and Renfrewshire North - Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Perth and Kinross-shire - Rutherglen - Stirling and Strathallan - West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - West Dunbartonshire

WALES
Aberafan Maesteg - Alyn and Deeside - Bangor Aberconwy - Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Bridgend - Caerfyrddin - Caerphilly - Cardiff East - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Ceredigion Preseli - Clwyd East - Clwyd North - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Gower - Llanelli - Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Monmouthshire - Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Neath and Swansea East - Newport East - Newport West and Islwyn - Pontypridd - Rhondda and Ogmore - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham - Ynys Mon

General Election 2024: A re-alignment in waiting

TIME is almost up. It has been 43 days since Rishi Sunak stood out in the pissing rain in Downing Street and announced his decision to call a General Election.

Frankly the optics that day were terrible for Mr Sunak and the campaign has got little better for the Conservatives since then.

It is thought that the decision to go to the polls was made on the back of the announcement by the Office of National Statistics that inflation had finally almost dropped to the all-important 2% target.

But, after 14 years of often chaotic Conservative-led government, the opinion polls suggest the public is no longer in the mood to accept such tiny morsels. 

Instead, most polling companies continue to show the same sort of significant Labour leads which began at the tail-end of the scandal-ridden Boris Johnson era in which Mr Sunak was Chancellor. 

Moreover, for the first time since 2005, The Sun newspaper - known for wanting to back the winner - has endorsed Labour. 

It is a far cry from December 2019 when Mr Johnson won a comfortable 80-seat majority on the back of his promise to get Brexit done.

Even, as recently as May 2021, Mr Johnson eyed "a decade in power", according to the Times, as the Conservatives basked in the success of roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

But then came Partygate. And the sale of contracts for personal protection equipment to Tory donors. And the Chris Pincher groping scandal - and so much more. 

In the meantime, Labour had installed a leader in Sir Keir Starmer who was more palatable to Middle England than left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. 

Next came the financial upheaval caused by the mini-Budget announced by Liz Truss's Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng during her 49-day tenure, the shortest on record for a Prime Minister. 

Yet nothing which Mr Sunak has done since his own elevation on 25 October 2022 - which appears to have been very little - has even as much as threatened to turn the tide.

Indeed, the only noticeable shift in the polls during the election period has gone against the Conservatives following the re-entry of former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

Mr Farage entered the election in typically dramatic style, taking over the leadership of the insurgent Reform Party from Richard Tice on 3 June and announcing his candidacy in the Clacton constituency.

Remarkably, it is the eighth time that Mr Farage has stood for election to the House of Commons - and he has failed to win on the previous seven occasions in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2015.

But this time feels different - long-standing political pundits are struggling to remember a government quite as unpopular as the Sunak administration, and there is a likelihood that Reform will take a select few seats.

Ultimately, any greater impact by Reform will be stymied by the First Past The Post system - which a referendum held on 5 May 2011 agreed to keep in place over the Alternative Vote.

Instead, if the Labour vote is as efficient as suggested by some forecasts, a largely evenly-spread Reform vote across England and Wales would be likely to cause change in all sorts of Conservative seats which would not be considered, in all normality, to be marginal.

For sure, Mr Sunak appears to be running scared of this scenario and given up the fight, even going as far as to appeal to his followers on X/Twitter on the eve of the election to "stop the [Labour] supermajority".

It really was an astounding message for an incumbent Prime Minister to send out. 

Of course, it is not just Labour and Reform which the Conservatives need to worry about, though.

The Liberal Democrats were massively hit by their association with the Tories in the austerity-driven coalition between 2010 and 2015. 

But recent big-swing by-election and council election victories have shown Ed Davey's party has begun to recover ground in their traditional heartlands in the South West of England and the outskirts of London.

Some forecasts have even suggested that a particularly efficient spread of the Lib Dem vote in the south would turn Ed Davey's party into the Official Opposition and reduce the Conservatives to double figures in terms of seats.

That still seems fanciful - but what is not in doubt is the fact that the Tories are in big trouble.

Already it seems to have been generally accepted that the Conservatives are facing a 1997-style defeat when Labour under Tony Blair began three full terms of government with a stonking majority of 179.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the Conservative cohort being reduced to fewer than 100 MPs cannot be ruled out altogether.

In turn, that might signal the beginning of the end of its current guise as a political behemoth which has dominated British politics for huge stretches of time since its formation in 1834.

Certainly, Reform will be hoping to win enough seats to present itself as a legitimate offering on the political right - and, while fully-fledged political collapses are pretty rare, they are also not unprecedented. 

In the 1993 federal election in Canada, the centre-right Progressive Conservatives had their outright majority reduced to two seats. 

More recently, in the Presidential and legislative elections in France in 2017, it was the turn of the centre-left Parti Socialiste to fall away into insignificance. 

Even in the UK itself, it is not a complete unknown - although it is 114 years since a badly-divided Liberal Party collapsed from power in 1910.

Neither that party nor any of its successors have ever come close to holding a majority again, though.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024 THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

▪️ The exit poll

For people who are not complete political nerds intent on pulling an all-nighters, just staying up until 10pm - when the polls officially close - may well suffice given its improving accuracy. That will signal the release of the exit poll - a pooled effort by BBC, ITV and Sky in around 150 key constituencies - where voters are asked which candidate they voted for. The exit poll accurately assessed in 2017 that Theresa May had lost her majority and also that the Conservatives remained the largest party - while, in 2019, it pointed towards a Conservative majority of 86 under Boris Johnson which ended up being 80. In 2010, the exit poll was actually almost spot-on in predicting the number of seats won by each of the main parties as David Cameron fell short of a majority. And, even though in 2015 it failed to pick the Conservatives majority under Mr Cameron, it still correctly showed the Tories had won far more seats than the polls during the campaign had suggested.

▪️ Overall turnout

Turnout at General Elections hovvered between 70-80% for most of the 20th Century but, since the turn of the Millennium, it has dropped to 60-70%. In 2001, in an election dubbed Labour's "quiet landslide", turnout fell as low as 59.4% - although it has been at a rather heathlier 68.8% and 67.3% in the two most recent General Elections in 2017 and 2019. A lower turnout than usual this time could spell more trouble for the Conservatives if it is their disenchanted supporters who have declined the invitation to attend the ballot box. 

▪️ New boundaries and notional majorities

The outgoing Parliament finally voted on the recommendations made by the Boundary Commission, meaning this General Election will be the first to be contested under the new boundaries. To the casual observer, it will mean for many voters that they will be voting in a constituency which has changed its name. More than that, though, the geography of the new seat will be, in some cases, significantly different to its predecessor - and that leads us onto notional majorities. A notional majority is a calculation made to determine what an election result would have been in a previous election if the newly-created boundaries had been in place then. Originally, the boundary changes were expected to benefit the Conservatives slightly more than the other parties as the Commission's findings account for population movement which is generally from the north to the south, where more Conservative support is based. Such has been the steepness of the decline in the popularity of the Tories, though, that - beyond a new set of seat names - the changes will have a negligible effect. 

▪️ Big fish

It is something of a mark of the chaos of the previous Parliament that, between the elections of 2019 and 2024, there have been three Prime Ministers, five Chancellors of the Exchequer, four Home Secretaries, and four Foreign Secretaries in the four Great Offices of State, as shown below. Several of these figures are not standing for re-election while current Foreign Secretary David Cameron sits in the House of Lords. But might Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, James Cleverly or even Rishi Sunak produce a moment to rival that of the deposition of Michael Portillo in 1997?

Prime Minister	Chancellor	Home Secretary	Foreign Secretary
Boris Johnson (2019 to 06-Sep-2022)	Sajid Javid (2019 to 13-Feb-2020) Rishi Sunak (13-Feb-2020 to 05-Jul-2022) Nadhim Zahawi (05-Jul-2022 to 06-Sep-2022)	Priti Patel (2019 to 06-Sep-2022)	Dominic Raab (2019 to 15-Sep-2021) Liz Truss (15-Sep-2021 to 06-Sep-2022)
Liz Truss (06-Sep-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)	Kwasi Kwarteng (06-Sep-2022 to 14-Oct-2022)  Jeremy Hunt (since 14-Oct-2022)	Suella Braverman (06-Sep-2022 to 19-Oct-2022) Grant Shapps (19-Oct-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)	James Cleverly (06-Sep-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)
Rishi Sunak (since 25-Oct-2022)		Suella Braverman (25-Oct-2022 to 13-Nov-2023) James Cleverly (since 13-Nov-2023)	Baron (David) Cameron (since 13-Nov-2023)

▪️ Number of Conservative seats, size of Labour majority

Labour won 418 seats under Tony Blair at the 1997 General Election for a majority of 179 - while the Conservatives under John Major were reduced to 165. The Tories had fared worse only in 1906, when they took only 131 seats - yet there is speculation, even among dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives, that one or more of these records could be broken. 

▪️ Number of seats won by Liberal Democrats, Reform, and Green Party

The First Past The Post system encourages dominance by two parties by its very nature and makes it difficult for smaller parties to make much impact at a General Election. Over the years, the Lib Dems often punched above the weight of their overall vote by pouring their resources into select target seats - and the Green Party and Reform appear to be following suit. Mainly appealing to those on the left-wing who are disaffected by the centrist shift of the Labour leadership, the Greens have set their sights on Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, as well as holding Brighton Pavilion despite the retirement of four-term MP Caroline Lucas. Meanwhile, Reform will look to have attracted people disenchanted with politics generally - and, as well as holding Ashfield which the party gained in March 2024 as a result of the defection of Lee Anderson, leader Nigel Farage is aiming to make it into Parliament at the eighth time of asking as MP for Clacton. Other targets for Reform include Boston and Skegness, Basildon and Billericay and Great Yarmouth. 

▪️ Number of seats won by the Scottish Nationalist Party

Up to this point, this preview has focused on seats in England and Wales - but the situation in Scotland is slightly different. There, Labour again appears to be benefiting from a collapse in support of a scandal-hit ruling party, except in this case that party is the Scottish Nationalists, and not the Conservatives. The SNP has been in power in the Scottish Parliament since 2007, and has won the most seats north of the border in the last three General Elections - but it faces the outcome of an ongoing investigation by Police Scotland into possible fundraising fraud. Prior to SNP surge, during the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown era, Scotland was a bedrock of Labour support - and polling suggests Sir Keir Starmer has begun to recover much of the lost ground in Central Belt. Still, in contrast to the so-called Red Wall in England and large parts of Wales which are expected to return fully to the Labour fold, the political outlook in Scotland looks set to be finely balanced - and the SNP will aim to limit their losses after a rough few years. 

Bugger Boris

BORIS JOHNSON will become the 76th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom tomorrow after he easily beat Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt in the Conservative Party leadership election.

Mr Johnson took 92,153 votes (66.1%) from party members to finish well clear of Mr Hunt who had 46,656 ballots (33.5%) cast for him. There were 509 papers rejected.

But, while this was a clear victory for the former Mayor of London among the Conservatives' rank and file, it also means he was elected into position by just 0.14% of the entire population.

During his campaign, Mr Johnson was largely kept out of trouble by his staffers, and yet he still managed to court controversy by refusing to rule out proroguing Parliament until after the Brexit deadline of 31 October - even if it meant the UK the European Union without a deal.

It was little more than three years ago that Mr Johnson led a Leave campaign which promoted sovereignty and urged Britain to "take back control" - but, now, parliamentary democracy does not seem all that important to him really.

Nevertheless, that inconsistency should have come as no surprise to anyone who has followed Mr Johnson's career closely enough.

Once upon a time, American comedian Groucho Marx joked: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others!"

Frankly, it is a quote which is made for Mr Johnson.

After all, it is now little remembered that - during his time as Mayor of London between 2008 and 2016 - the new Prime Minister was never slow to praise the relationship between the UK capital city and the EU.

Now, of course, it is true that all people, even politicians(!), are entitled to a change in heart - and this is an admittedly cynical view of the situation.

But it seems far more likely in this instance that the wily Mr Johnson recognised the significant political capital which could be gained by opposing his former fellow Old Etonion and then-Prime Minister David Cameron in the EU referendum campaign.

Mr Johnson has never made much of a secret of his ambition to lead the country - and, in 2016, the gamble of his life appeared to have paid off handsomely when a humiliated Mr Cameron resigned in the immediate wake of the referendum.

However, in a month of political mayhem, Mr Johnson's leadership bid failed even to launch as his ally and expected running mate Michael Gove astonishingly announced his own candidacy.

Eventually, Theresa May became PM in unconvincing style - and, less than a year after taking office, she lost her overall majority in the snap General Election which she called in 2017.

For two more years, Mrs May led Britain in ever-decreasing circles, trying repeatedly to force through a compromise deal which ended up being opposed on all sides.

Perhaps things might have been different if Mr Johnson had won the leadership election three years ago. Perhaps Mr Johnson would have called a General Election, won an increased majority, and the first stage of Brexit would have already been completed.

That remains uncertain - especially as the 2017 election coincided with a popularity surge for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, never seen before or since.

If anything, this leadership campaign against Mr Hunt has emphasised some of the weaknesses of Mr Johnson - with his serial avoidance of the issues at hand and his tiresome jokes which appear to appeal only to the slack-jawed and simple-minded.

He was at it again in his victory speech this morning when he declared: "Dude! We are going to energise the country" - but gave no solutions to the main issue of the day or indeed any of the other problems currently facing Britain.

And then - deep sigh - there are the gaffes, of which threatening to prorogue Parliament is only just the latest.

In the past, Mr Johnson has referred to black people in Africa as "piccaninnies" with "watermelon smiles" and gay men as "bumboys".

Meanwhile, in November 2017 in the role of Foreign Secretary, he made a disastrous intervention in the case of a British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe who had been detained by the Iranian authorities.

Mr Johnson told a Select Committee that he believed she had been “simply teaching people journalism” - but these remarks put her at risk since a central part of Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's defence was that she was there on a holiday visiting family.

Four days after Mr Johnson's comments, Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe was returned to court in Iran where the then-Foreign Secretary's statement was cited as evidence against her

Rather than gaffes then, these incidents are - at best - misguided or bad errors of judgement. At worst, they are the remarks of a mendacious and discriminatory man who is simply not fit to be Prime Minister.

Regardless of that, Mr Johnson already faces an arithmetical headache with the Parliament which Mrs May has bequeathed him - especially if he attempts to lead Britain towards a No Deal scenario.

Anne Milton - MP for Guildford - resigned from her from her ministerial post just minutes before today's result was announced.

Chancellor Philip Hammond and Justice Secretary David Gauke will surely follow, based on what they have previously said - while former leadership candidate Rory Stewart has vowed to lead the charge against a No Deal Brexit from the backbenchers.

The arithmetic could even get worse for Mr Johnson if - as expected - the Conservatives lose their seat in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, held on 1 August.

It is difficult to know what sort of boost, if any, there will be to the Tory campaign following the selection of Mr Johnson.

But it is certainly the case that Britain is now again running out of time, something which was warned against by Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, on 11 April - the date on which the latest extension was granted.

Since then, there have been 104 days - while there are now just exactly 100 days until the Brexit deadline on Hallowe'en.

So far, with over half of the time since the original Brexit date having elapsed, Britain has achieved precisely nothing.

Worse still, Britain now has a loose cannon of a Prime Minister whose reference from his ex-Daily Telegraph boss Max Hastings declared him to be "unfit for national office".

And yet, tomorrow, Mr Johnson will be settling into Number 10 Downing Street where the difficult work will begin.

CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP CONTEST 2019

	1st (%) 13 June	2nd (%) 18 June	3rd (%) 19 June	4th (%) 20 June	5th (%) 20 June	Members
Boris JOHNSON	114 (36.4)	126 (40.3)	143 (45.7)	157 (50.2)	160 (51.1)	92,153 (66.1)
Jeremy HUNT	43 (13.7)	46 (14.7)	54 (17.3)	59 (18.8)	77 (24.6)	46,656 (33.5)
Michael GOVE	37 (11.8)	41 (13.1)	51 (16.3)	61 (19.5)	75 (24.0)
Sajid JAVID	23 (7.3)	33 (10.5)	38 (12.1)	34 (10.9)
Rory STEWART	19 (6.1)	37 (11.8)	27 (8.6)
Dominic RAAB	27 (8.6)	30 (9.6)
Matt HANCOCK	20 (6.4)	Withdrew
Andrea LEADSOM	11 (3.5)
Mark HARPER	10 (3.2)
Esther MCVEY	9 (2.9)
Spoilt ballots	0	0	0	2	1	509 (0.4)
Turnout	313	313	313	313	313	139,318 (87.4)

Rt Hon BORIS JOHNSON MP Profile
Full name Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (born 19 June 1964)
Birth place New York City, United States
Education Eton College 
Alma mater Balliol College, Oxford
Constituency Uxbridge and South Ruislip (since 2015, maj. 5,034); previously Henley (2001-2008)
Public office
▪️2008-2016 Mayor of London
▪️2016-2018 Foreign Secretary