LABOUR overturned a majority of more than 20,000 in the Selby and Ainsty by-election on Thursday to gain its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945.
Keir Mather, aged 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons - the Baby of the House - after he secured 16,456 votes (46%) compared to Conservative candidate Clare Holmes's 12,295 (34.3%) on a swing of 23.7%.
Additionally, on a night when three seats were up for grabs, the Tories also lost heavily in Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats who produced a quite remarkable 29% swing.
But, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives defied dreadful national polls by claiming victory in the seat vacated in July by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Mr Johnson had resigned as an MP following the publishing of a highly-critical report by the Parliamentary Privileges Committee into Partygate which recommended his suspension from Parliament.
But, despite avoiding the indignity of becoming the first PM to lose three by-elections on the same night since Harold Wilson in 1968, the storm clouds are still gathering for the current incumbent Rishi Sunak.
After all, the held seat in outer London was attributed almost entirely to local factors with triumphant Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell pointedly directing his victory speech to Labour mayor Sadiq Khan for his proposed imposition of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on the area.
Under the scheme, drivers must pay £12.50 per day if they drive a vehicle which does not meet modern emission standards.
Generally, these are diesel vehicles that are more than seven years old, or petrol vehicles that are more than 17 years old.
Mr Khan defended the policy even after the result in the early hours of Friday morning, saying: "It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?"
Additionally, the complaints of the Conservatives ring rather hollow if the reality of the situation is considered as ULEZ was actually initiated by Mr Johnson while he was London mayor.
The extension of the scheme to outer London under Mr Khan was also a condition set by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in exchange for financial support for Transport for London during COVID-19.
Nonetheless, Mr Tuckwell's message had a decisive effect on the seat - and, after being decidedly non-committal during campaign, Labour leader Sir Keir Starter called upon Mr Khan to "reflect" on his decision to expand ULEZ, all of a sudden rather hanging him out to dry.
That much-quoted adage of Benjamin Franklin of never interrupting an opponent while they are making a mistake appears to explain the previously cautious strategy of the Labour leader.
But, despite failing in Uxbridge, this somewhat questionable tactic might still work overall as, another political cliché - which suggests governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them - also appears to be ringing true.
The defeat in Selby and Ainsty, a long-time Tory-held rural seat in North Yorkshire, can only be considered to be a response to a government which has dragged the public, in political terms, to hell and back.
It started with austerity brought in by David Cameron in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis - then, following his resignation immediately after a losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, his successor Theresa May called a self-defeating General Election in which she lost her majority and caused complete stalemate in the Commons.
Mrs May's eventual replacement Mr Johnson - following a difficult start in which he almost seemed like his own worst enemy even among his own party - appeared to steady matters by routing a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour at the 2019 General Election.
But, three months later, COVID-19 arrived and threw the government into chaos again.
Mr Johnson applied inconsistent lockdown restrictions while Downing Street staff members unashamedly held alcohol-fuelled parties, including one on the night before Queen Elizabeth II buried her husband Prince Philip.
Eventually, after months of pressure, Mr Johnson was forced to resign as PM in July 2022, prompting a messy leadership election from which Liz Truss somehow emerged the winner.
Ms Truss arrived attempting to increase spending and cut taxes, an audacious move at a time of rising prices worldwide and one which spooked the markets so badly that, with a tenure of only 49 days, she became the shortest reigning Prime Minister in history.
Enter Mr Sunak but, as something of a charisma vacuum, he is also someone who - it has been perhaps less easily forgotten - stood alongside and was fined for a coronavirus indiscretion alongside Mr Johnson while Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Back to the by-elections on Thursday - and the south west of England is an area in which Labour has never been particularly competitive and their voters also appear willing to vote tactically.
In fact, in Somerton and Frome, the Labour candidate polled a miserable 1,009 votes (2.6%) to lose his deposit - but Labour voters there surely knew it was the Lib Dems who are the main threat to the Tories anyway.
By-election victories in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022 and now in Somerton and Frome strongly suggest Sir Ed Davey's party will indeed cause a lot of trouble for the Tories in this region at the next General Election.
In 1997, the Lib Dems won 14 seats in the south west - and they won the same number in 2010 in an overall total of 57 to prevent Mr Cameron from gaining a majority at the first attempt.
Instead, a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition was formed - though, following a near-wipeout in 2015, the Lib Dems certainly will not go down that particularly cul-de-sac again in the course of another hung parliament.
Of course, Labour continues to boast significant poll leads so will be looking towards a first outright majority since Tony Blair was victorious in 2005.
But results like the one in Uxbridge cast doubt on that ambition.
Indeed, only a fool would assess the next General Election on the basis of a uniform national swing in which all of the seats across the whole country are predicted to behave in the same way.
The political landscape has been messy for almost two decades now with the global financial crisis, austerity policies, Brexit and COVID-19 causing various levels of chaos.
It is difficult to imagine then that the next General Election - expected in spring or autumn next year - will be anything other than messy too.
BY ELECTION RESULTS
Thursday 20 July 2023
| UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP |
|
| |
|
| Steve Tuckwell | CON | 13,965 | 45.2% | (-7.4%) |
| Danny Beales | LAB | 13,470 | 43.6% | (+6.0%) |
| Sarah Green | GRN | 893 | 2.9% | (+0.7%) |
| Laurence Fox | RCM | 714 | 2.3% | (-) |
| Blaise Baquiche | LD | 526 | 1.7% | (-4.6%) |
| Others |
| 1,357 | 4.4% |
|
CON hold • Turnout 46.2% (17.3%)
| SELBY AND AINSTY |
|
|
|
|
| Keir Mather | LAB | 16,456 | 46.0% | (+21.4%) |
| Claire Holmes | CON | 12,295 | 34.3% | (-26.0%) |
| Arnold Warneken | GRN | 1,838 | 5.1% | (+1.9%) |
| Mike Jordan | YP | 1,503 | 4.2% | (+0.8%) |
| Dave Kent | RFM | 1,332 | 3.7% | (-) |
| Matt Walker | LD | 1,188 | 3.3% | (-5.3%) |
| Others |
| 1,195 | 3.5% |
|
LAB GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.8% (-27.2%)
| SOMERTON AND FROME |
|
| |
|
| Sarah Dyke | LD | 21,187 | 54.6% | (+28.4%) |
| Faye Purbrick | CON | 10,179 | 26.2% | (-29.6%) |
| Martin Dimery | GRN | 3,944 | 10.2% | (+5.1%) |
| Bruce Evans | RFM | 1,303 | 3.4% | (-) |
| Neil Guild | LAB | 1,009 | 2.6% | (-10.3%) |
| Others |
| 1,166 | 3.0% |
|
LD GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.2% (-31.4%)KEY ▪️ CON Conservatives • LAB Labour • LD Liberal Democrats • GRN Green • RCM Reclaim • YP Yorkshire Party • RFM Reform UK
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