Showing posts with label coronavirus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label coronavirus. Show all posts

Monday, 8 July 2024

General Election 2024 results: Labour wins a "Loveless Landslide"

LABOUR returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a mathematically mind-boggling majority at the 2024 General Election.

Sir Keir Starmer's party took 411 seats, a gain of 209, in a massive victory which almost matched the majority won by Tony Blair in 1997.

But, in a result which has already been termed a "Loveless Landslide", Labour received less than 10 million votes and took just a 33.8% share overall.

That was only modestly up on the 32.1% share received by Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn - who actually received more votes due to the higher turnout four-and-a-half years ago.

Back then, Mr Corbyn led Labour to its worst result in terms of seats since 1935 by piling up thousands of unnecessary additional votes in already rock-solid safe seats.

This time, though, Mr Starmer's broader appeal has resulted in the Labour vote being far more evenly spread across the United Kingdom with such a level of efficiency that any attempt to analyse the outcome using a traditional swingometer was rendered completely useless.

Overall, there was a 10.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour at this election, something which would have resulted in a hung parliament if the movement of votes had been the same across all of the constituencies.

However, that did not happen because, whereas previously the swing change has been pretty evenly matched between Labour gain and Conservative loss (or vice-versa), the swing this time could be almost solely attributed to the collapse in the Tories' vote share.

Indeed, any sort of analysis must begin with the obvious conclusion that this was the most visceral repudiation of the Conservative Party since its formation in 1834.

Frankly, the results of this General Election made the 1997 collapse look like a grand day out, as they received a record-low share of the vote (23.7%) and finished with 121 seats, another record low.

No fewer than 11 Cabinet ministers lost their seats - another record - including Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Perhaps none of these was quite on par with the Portillo moment in 1997, though.

Instead, that belonged to Jacob Rees-Mogg who was roundly defeated who was defeated in North East Somerset and Hanham by Dan Norris of Labour.

Or, more likely still, it was the unceremonious deposing of former Prime Minister Liz Truss whose reluctance to go on stage for her result led to a round of slow handclaps.

Ms Truss - who had a record-short tenure of 49 days as Prime Minister and infamously failed to outlast a lettuce - was defeated in the South West Norfolk constituency by Terry Jermy of Labour on a 26.2% swing. 

Meanwhile, the seats of three other former Conservative Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May - in Witney, Henley and Thame, and Maidenhead respectively - all returned a Liberal Democrat MP.

For the record, none of those former PMs was standing - but the turnover symbolised another big theme of the results of this election: the return of the Lib Dems.

In taking 72 seats, the Lib Dems will hold their biggest representation at the House of Commons since the party was founded in 1988, and the highest number by any Liberal party since 1923.

Yet, they also saw only a modest increase in their vote share - up by 0.6% on 2019 when the party comprised of just 11 MPs and then-leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

Undoubtedly, the sharp increase can be attributed to two main factors, in addition to the Conservative collapse.

The first is a ruthless targeting of potential seats and the intentional disproportionate pouring of funds and resources in those constituencies.

Secondly, the Lib Dems benefited from tactical voting as primarily Labour voters lended their vote in order to see a Conservative opponent beaten.

In fairness to the Lib Dems, the extent of tactical voting is often overstated - and, even in their south west heartland where they made many of their gains, Labour also did historically well and won all sorts of seats which it has never held before.

Now, it is not particularly remarkable that the Conservatives hold no seats in the north east or Cumbria, or that they have been wiped out altogether in Wales.

However, the fact that the Tories have just four MPs in Devon and none at all in Cornwall is noteworthy.

Indeed, it has had the effect of reducing the Conservative representation to suburbs of London and Birmingham, and some remaining true blue constituencies in rural parts of Yorkshire and the south.

Meanwhile, across the country, the Conservatives faced a further wholly different type of opponent in a significant change to the 2019 election.

In 2019, Nigel Farage - then as leader of the Brexit Party - was satisfied by the offer made by Conservative leader Mr Johnson to "get Brexit done", and stood down candidates in seats which the Tories were defending to prevent a split in the right-wing vote.

This time, there was no such deal between Mr Farage and the Tory leader Mr Sunak - and the Reform Party responded by biting huge chunks out of the Conservative vote all around the country.

Lee Anderson retained Ashfield, having originally won it for the Conservatives in 2019, former leader Richard Tice took Boston and Skegness, former Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe gained Great Yarmouth, and the far less heralded James McMurdock won South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The big news, though, was the entry into Parliament for the first time by Mr Farage - who, at the eighth attempt to gain a seat at Westminster, finally won in Clacton.

Beyond those constituencies, Reform finished second in 98 seats, wreaking havoc primarily upon the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to achieve a whole slew of narrow victories.

As such, the 2024 General Election result exposed the truly perverse nature of the First Past The Post system.

For, while Labour, on average, picked up one seat for around every 23,000 votes, Reform took 823,000 votes for each MP.

Now, pure proportional representation (PR) has its own inherent weakness in that it encourages individual parties to take an approach in thinking which is far too narrow merely so that they can secure votes from their base.

Meanwhile, studies into the Alternative Vote (AV) - already rejected thoroughly in a referendum in 2011 - showed that it had the potential to produce outcomes which were even less proportionate than First Past The Post (FPTP).

Perhaps then, the solution lies in the Additional-Member System (AMS) which is familiar to voters in Scotland and Wales as it is used to elect the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

AMS - like the current FPTP system - has a constituency vote first of all so that there is still a clear link between the public and its local representative.

In contrast to FPTP, though, AMS has a second set of votes - these are divided by the number of constituencies won on the first ballot, therefore parties with fewer seats in that first ballot benefit in the second set by taking more top-up seats.

There are, of course, still more seats available on the first ballot conducted under FPTP; however the second ballot has the effect of making a legislature far more representative of the overall votes than a FPTP-only election.

Undoubtedly, Labour will argue - with good reason - that there are far more pressing issues surrounding the state of public services after 14 years of Tory rule.

But the democratic deficit in the British system is a major issue in itself in that it feeds bitterness and cynicism which then naturally extends to perceptions about government action, or a lack of it, on matters like immigration.

Yet it is not just Reform on the right wing from which Labour will come under pressure, based on these election results.

Former leader Mr Corbyn - suspended by Labour after asserting that the scale of antisemitism in the party had been overstated for political reasons - stood instead as an independent and, with a huge personal vote of 24,120, retained the Islington North seat which he has held since 1983.

Elsewhere, the Green Party may only have taken four seats - but that is still quadruple of the previous representation based upon on a slither of the media interest afforded to Reform.

Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay were elected in Bristol Central and Waveney Valley - and it is hoped by Green supporters that, through their dual presence, they can increase the profile of the party while also moving on from the Caroline Lucas era.

Meanwhile, Mr Starmer's predictably cautious approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict undoubtedly cost him several seats as four independent Muslim candidates - Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, and Ayoub Khan - won in Leicester South, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Batley, and Birmingham Perry Barr.

Normally, a huge majority would leave a leader with little concern over fringe issues - and at least there should be little noise from the Scottish National Party in the next term after it was reduced from 48 seats into single figures on nine.

But, while Mr Starmer has hundreds of seats in the House of Commons, he also has a low personal popularity ratings and a lack of mandate outside of the Westminster bubble.

As such, the new government will need to make a significant early impact to avoid coming under pressure from an impatient and an increasingly electorally volatile British public.


GENERAL ELECTION 2024
Labour majority of 172


SCOREBOARDSeatsDiffVotes%Diff%
Labour411(+209)33.8%(+1.7%)
Conservatives121(-244)23.7%(-19.9%)
Lib Dems72(+61)12.2%(+0.6%)
Scottish Nationals9(-39)2.5%(-1.3%)
Green Party4(+3)6.8%(+4.1%)
Reform Party5(+5)14.3%(+12.3%)
Plaid Cymru4(-)0.7%(+0.2%)
Others24(+5)5.4%
Turnout 59.9% (-7.4%)

EXIT POLL • CON 131 • LAB 410 • LD 61 • RFM 13 • SNP 10 • OTH 25


EAST MIDLANDS
Amber Valley - Ashfield - Bassetlaw - Bolsover - Boston and Skegness - Broxtowe - Chesterfield - Corby and East Northamptonshire - Daventry - Derby North - Derby South - Derbyshire Dales - Erewash - Gainsborough - Gedling - Grantham and Bourne - Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - High Peak - Hinckley and Bosworth - Kettering - Leicester East - Leicester South - Leicester West - Lincoln - Loughborough - Louth and Horncastle - Mansfield - Melton and Syston - Mid Derbyshire - Mid Leicestershire - Newark - North East Derbyshire - North West Leicestershire - Northampton North - Northampton South - Nottingham East - Nottingham North and Kimberley - Nottingham South - Rushcliffe - Rutland and Stamford - Sherwood Forest - Sleaford and North Hykeham - South Derbyshire - South Holland and The Deepings - South Leicestershire - South Northamptonshire - Wellingborough and Rushden

EAST
Basildon and Billericay - Bedford - Braintree - Brentwood and Ongar - Broadland and Fakenham - Broxbourne - Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Cambridge - Castle Point - Central Suffolk and North Ipswich - Chelmsford - Clacton - Colchester - Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard - Ely and East Cambridgeshire - Epping Forest - Great Yarmouth - Harlow - Harpenden and Berkhamsted - Harwick and North Essex - Hemel Hempstead - Hertford and Stortford - Hertsmere - Hitchin - Huntingdon - Ipswich - Lowestoft - Luton North - Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Maldon - Mid Bedfordshire - Mid Norfolk - North Bedfordshire - North East Cambridgeshire - North East Hertfordshire - North Norfolk - North West Cambridgeshire - North West Essex - North West Norfolk - Norwich North - Norwich South - Peterborough - Rayleigh and Wickford - South Basildon and East Thurrock - South Cambridgeshire - South Norfolk - South Suffolk - South West Hertfordshire - South West Norfolk - Southend East and Rochford - Southend West and Leigh - St Albans - St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire - Stevenage - Suffolk Coastal - Thurrock - Watford - Waveney Valley - Welwyn Hatfield - West Suffolk - Witham

LONDON
Barking - Battersea - Beckenham and Penge - Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Bethnal Green and Stepney - Bexleyheath and Crayford - Brent East - Brent West - Brentford and Isleworth - Bromley and Biggin Hill - Carshalton and Wallington - Chelsea and Fulham - Chingford and Woodford Green - Chipping Barnet - Cities of London and Westminster - Clapham and Brixton Hill - Croydon East - Croydon South - Croydon West - Dagenham and Rainham - Dulwich and West Norwood - Ealing Central and Acton - Ealing North - Ealing Southall - East Ham - Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Eltham and Chislehurst - Enfield North - Erith and Thamesmead - Feltham and Heston - Finchley and Golders Green - Greenwich and Woolwich - Hackney North and Stoke Newington - Hackney South and Shoreditch - Hammersmith and Chiswick - Hampstead and Highgate - Harrow East - Harrow West - Hayes and Harlington - Hendon - Holborn and St Pancras - Hornchurch and Upminster - Hornsey and Friern Barnet - Ilford North - Ilford South - Islington North - Islington South and Finsbury - Kensington and BayswaterKingston and Surbiton - Lewisham East - Lewisham North - Lewisham West and East Dulwich - Leyton and Wanstead - Mitcham and Morden - Old Bexley and Sidcup - Orpington - Peckham - Poplar and Limehouse - Putney - Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Richmond Park - Romford - Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - Southgate and Wood Green - Stratford and Bow - Streatham and Croydon North - Sutton and Cheam - Tooting - Tottenham - Twickenham - Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Vauxhall and Camberwell Green - Walthamstow - West Ham and Beckton - Wimbledon

NORTH EAST
Bishop Auckland - Blaydon and Consett - Blyth and Ashington - City of Durham - Cramlington and Killingworth - Darlington - Easington - Gateshead Central and Whickham - Hartlepool - Hexham - Houghton and Sunderland South - Jarrow and Gateshead East - Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland - Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Newcastle upon Tyne North - Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - North Durham - North Northumberland - Redcar - South Shields - Stockton North - Stockton West - Sunderland Central - Tynemouth - Washington and Gateshead South

NORTH WEST
Altrincham and Sale West - Ashton-under-Lyne - Barrow and Furness - Birkenhead - Blackburn - Blackley and Middleton South - Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Blackpool South - Bolton North East - Bolton South and Walkden - Bolton West - Bootle - Burnley - Bury North - Bury South - Carlisle - Cheadle - Chester North and Neston - Chester South and Eddisbury - Chorley - Congleton - Crewe and Nantwich - Ellesmere Port and Bromborough - Fylde - Gorton and Denton - Hazel Grove - Heywood and Middleton North - Hyndburn - Knowsley - Lancaster and Wyre - Leigh and Atherton - Liverpool Garston - Liverpool Riverside - Liverpool Walton - Liverpool Wavertree - Liverpool West Derby - Macclesfield - Makerfield - Manchester Central - Manchester Rusholme - Manchester Withington - Mid Cheshire - Morecambe and Lunesdale - Oldham East and Saddleworth - Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton - Pendle and Clitheroe - Penrith and Solway - Preston - Ribble Valley - Rochdale - Rossendale and Darwen - Runcorn and Helsby - Salford - Sefton Central - South Ribble - Southport - St Helens North - St Helens South and Whiston - Stalybridge and Hyde - Stockport - Stretford and Urmston - Tatton - Wallasey - Warrington North - Warrington South - West Lancashire - Westmorland and Lonsdale - Whitehaven and Workington - Widnes and Halewood - Wigan - Wirral West - Worsley and Eccles - Wythenshawe and Sale East

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST
Aldershot - Arundel and South Downs - Ashford - Aylesbury - Banbury - Basingstoke - Beaconsfield - Bexhill and BattleBicester and Woodstock - Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Bracknell - Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven - Brighton Pavilion - Buckingham and Bletchley - Canterbury - Chatham and Aylesford - Chesham and Amersham - Chichester - Crawley - Dartford - Didcot and Wantage - Dorking and Horley - Dover and Deal - Earley and Woodley - East Grinstead and Uckfield - East Hampshire - East Surrey - East Thanet - East Worthing and Shoreham - Eastbourne - Eastleigh - Epsom and Ewell - Esher and Walton - Fareham and Waterlooville - Farnham and Bordon - Faversham and Mid Kent - Folkstone and Hythe - Gillingham and Rainham - Godalming and Ash - Gosport - Gravesham - Guildford - Hamble Valley - Hastings and Rye - Havant - Henley and Thame - Herne Bay and Sandwich - Horsham - Hove and Portslade - Isle of Wight East - Isle of Wight West - Lewes - Maidenhead - Maidstone and Malling - Mid Buckinghamshire - Mid Sussex - Milton Keynes Central - Milton Keynes North - New Forest East - New Forest West - Newbury - North East Hampshire - North West Hampshire - Oxford East - Oxford West and Abingdon - Portsmouth North - Portsmouth South - Reading Central - Reading West and Mid Berkshire - Reigate - Rochester and Strood - Romsey and Southampton North - Runnymede and Weybridge - Sevenoaks - Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Slough - Southampton Itchen - Southampton Test - Spelthorne - Surrey Heath - Sussex Weald - Tonbridge - Tunbridge Wells - Weald of Kent - Winchester - Windsor - Witney - Woking - Wokingham - Worthing West - Wycombe

SOUTH WEST
Bath - Bournemouth East - Bournemouth West - Bridgwater - Bristol Central - Bristol East - Bristol North East - Bristol North West - Bristol South - Camborne and Redruth - Central Devon - Cheltenham - Chippenham - Christchurch - East Wiltshire - Exeter - Exmouth and Exeter East - Filton and Bradley Stoke - Forest of Dean - Frome and East Somerset - Glastonbury and Somerton - Gloucester - Honiton and Sidmouth - Melksham and Devizes - Mid Dorset and North Poole - Newton Abbot - North Cornwall - North Cotswolds - North Devon - North Dorset - North East Somerset and Hanham - North Somerset - Plymouth Moor View - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Poole - Salisbury - South Cotswolds - South Devon - South Dorset - South East Cornwall - South West Devon - South West Wiltshire - St Austell and Newquay - St Ives - Stroud - Swindon North - Swindon South - Taunton and Wellington - Tewkesbury - Thornbury and Yate - Tiverton and Minehead - Torbay - Torridge and Tavistock - Truro and Falmouth - Wells and Mendip Hills - West Dorset - Weston-super-Mare - Yeovil

WEST MIDLANDS
Aldridge-Brownhills - Birmingham Edgbaston - Birmingham Erdington - Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - Birmingham Ladywood - Birmingham Northfield - Birmingham Perry Barr - Birmingham Selly Oak - Birmingham Yardley - Bromsgrove - Burton and Uttoxeter - Cannock Chase - Coventry East - Coventry North West - Coventry South - Droitwich and Evesham - Dudley - Halesowen - Hereford and South Herefordshire - Kenilworth and Southam - Kingswinford and South Staffordshire - Lichfield - Meriden and Solihull East - Newcastle-under-Lyme - North Herefordshire - North Shropshire - North Warwickshire and Bedworth - Nuneaton - Redditch - Rugby - Shrewsbury - Smethwick - Solihull West and Shirley - South Shropshire - Stafford - Staffordshire Moorlands - Stoke-on-Trent Central - Stoke-on-Trent North - Stoke-on-Trent South - Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - Stourbridge - Stratford-on-Avon - Sutton Coldfield - Tamworth - Telford - The Wrekin - Tipton and Wednesbury - Walsall and Bloxwich - Warwick and Leamington - West Bromwich - West Worcestershire - Wolverhampton North East - Wolverhampton South East - Wolverhampton West - Worcester - Wyre Forest

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Barnsley North - Barnsley South - Beverley and Holderness - Bradford East - Bradford South - Bradford West - Bridlington and The Wolds - Brigg and Immingham - Calder Valley - Colne Valley - Dewsbury and Batley - Doncaster Central - Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme - Doncaster North - Goole and Pocklington - Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Halifax - Harrogate and Knaresborough - Huddersfield - Keighley and Ilkley - Kingston upon Hull East - Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - Leeds Central and Headingley - Leeds East - Leeds North East - Leeds North West - Leeds South - Leeds South West and Morley - Leeds West and Pudsey - Normanton and Hemsworth - Ossett and Denby Dale - Penistone and Stocksbridge - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Richmond and Northallerton - Rother Valley - Rotherham - Scarborough and Whitby - Scunthorpe - Selby - Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Sheffield Central - Sheffield Hallam - Sheffield Heeley - Sheffield South East - Shipley - Skipton and Ripon - Spen Valley - Thirsk and Malton - Wakefield and Rothwell - Wetherby and Easingwold - York Central - York Outer

SCOTLAND
Aberdeen North - Aberdeen South - Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - Airdrie and Shotts - Alloa and Grangemouth - Angus and Perthshire Glens - Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - Bathgate and Linlithgow - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Central Ayrshire - Coatbridge and Bellshill - Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - Dumfries and Galloway - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - Dundee Central - Dunfermline and Dollar - East Kilbride and Strathaven - East Renfrewshire - Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - Edinburgh North and Leith - Edinburgh South - Edinburgh South West - Edinburgh West - Falkirk - Glasgow East - Glasgow North - Glasgow North East - Glasgow South - Glasgow South West - Glasgow West - Glenrothes and Mid Fife - Gordon and Buchan - Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - Kilmarnock and Loudoun - Livingston - Lothian East - Mid Dunbartonshire - Midlothian - Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeNa h-Eileanan an IarNorth Ayrshire and Arran - North East Fife - Orkney and ShetlandPaisley and Renfrewshire North - Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Perth and Kinross-shire - Rutherglen - Stirling and Strathallan - West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - West Dunbartonshire

WALES
Aberafan Maesteg - Alyn and Deeside - Bangor Aberconwy - Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Bridgend - Caerfyrddin - Caerphilly - Cardiff East - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Ceredigion Preseli - Clwyd East - Clwyd North - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Gower - Llanelli - Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Monmouthshire - Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Neath and Swansea East - Newport East - Newport West and Islwyn - Pontypridd - Rhondda and Ogmore - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham - Ynys Mon

Thursday, 4 July 2024

General Election 2024: A re-alignment in waiting

TIME is almost up. It has been 43 days since Rishi Sunak stood out in the pissing rain in Downing Street and announced his decision to call a General Election.

Frankly the optics that day were terrible for Mr Sunak and the campaign has got little better for the Conservatives since then.

It is thought that the decision to go to the polls was made on the back of the announcement by the Office of National Statistics that inflation had finally almost dropped to the all-important 2% target.

But, after 14 years of often chaotic Conservative-led government, the opinion polls suggest the public is no longer in the mood to accept such tiny morsels. 

Instead, most polling companies continue to show the same sort of significant Labour leads which began at the tail-end of the scandal-ridden Boris Johnson era in which Mr Sunak was Chancellor. 

Moreover, for the first time since 2005, The Sun newspaper - known for wanting to back the winner - has endorsed Labour. 

It is a far cry from December 2019 when Mr Johnson won a comfortable 80-seat majority on the back of his promise to get Brexit done.

Even, as recently as May 2021, Mr Johnson eyed "a decade in power", according to the Times, as the Conservatives basked in the success of roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

But then came Partygate. And the sale of contracts for personal protection equipment to Tory donors. And the Chris Pincher groping scandal - and so much more. 

In the meantime, Labour had installed a leader in Sir Keir Starmer who was more palatable to Middle England than left-winger Jeremy Corbyn. 

Next came the financial upheaval caused by the mini-Budget announced by Liz Truss's Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng during her 49-day tenure, the shortest on record for a Prime Minister. 

Yet nothing which Mr Sunak has done since his own elevation on 25 October 2022 - which appears to have been very little - has even as much as threatened to turn the tide.

Indeed, the only noticeable shift in the polls during the election period has gone against the Conservatives following the re-entry of former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

Mr Farage entered the election in typically dramatic style, taking over the leadership of the insurgent Reform Party from Richard Tice on 3 June and announcing his candidacy in the Clacton constituency.

Remarkably, it is the eighth time that Mr Farage has stood for election to the House of Commons - and he has failed to win on the previous seven occasions in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2015.

But this time feels different - long-standing political pundits are struggling to remember a government quite as unpopular as the Sunak administration, and there is a likelihood that Reform will take a select few seats.

Ultimately, any greater impact by Reform will be stymied by the First Past The Post system - which a referendum held on 5 May 2011 agreed to keep in place over the Alternative Vote.

Instead, if the Labour vote is as efficient as suggested by some forecasts, a largely evenly-spread Reform vote across England and Wales would be likely to cause change in all sorts of Conservative seats which would not be considered, in all normality, to be marginal.

For sure, Mr Sunak appears to be running scared of this scenario and given up the fight, even going as far as to appeal to his followers on X/Twitter on the eve of the election to "stop the [Labour] supermajority".

It really was an astounding message for an incumbent Prime Minister to send out. 

Of course, it is not just Labour and Reform which the Conservatives need to worry about, though.

The Liberal Democrats were massively hit by their association with the Tories in the austerity-driven coalition between 2010 and 2015. 

But recent big-swing by-election and council election victories have shown Ed Davey's party has begun to recover ground in their traditional heartlands in the South West of England and the outskirts of London.

Some forecasts have even suggested that a particularly efficient spread of the Lib Dem vote in the south would turn Ed Davey's party into the Official Opposition and reduce the Conservatives to double figures in terms of seats.

That still seems fanciful - but what is not in doubt is the fact that the Tories are in big trouble.

Already it seems to have been generally accepted that the Conservatives are facing a 1997-style defeat when Labour under Tony Blair began three full terms of government with a stonking majority of 179.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the Conservative cohort being reduced to fewer than 100 MPs cannot be ruled out altogether.

In turn, that might signal the beginning of the end of its current guise as a political behemoth which has dominated British politics for huge stretches of time since its formation in 1834.

Certainly, Reform will be hoping to win enough seats to present itself as a legitimate offering on the political right - and, while fully-fledged political collapses are pretty rare, they are also not unprecedented. 

In the 1993 federal election in Canada, the centre-right Progressive Conservatives had their outright majority reduced to two seats. 

More recently, in the Presidential and legislative elections in France in 2017, it was the turn of the centre-left Parti Socialiste to fall away into insignificance. 

Even in the UK itself, it is not a complete unknown - although it is 114 years since a badly-divided Liberal Party collapsed from power in 1910.

Neither that party nor any of its successors have ever come close to holding a majority again, though.


GENERAL ELECTION 2024 THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

▪️ The exit poll

For people who are not complete political nerds intent on pulling an all-nighters, just staying up until 10pm - when the polls officially close - may well suffice given its improving accuracy. That will signal the release of the exit poll - a pooled effort by BBC, ITV and Sky in around 150 key constituencies - where voters are asked which candidate they voted for. The exit poll accurately assessed in 2017 that Theresa May had lost her majority and also that the Conservatives remained the largest party - while, in 2019, it pointed towards a Conservative majority of 86 under Boris Johnson which ended up being 80. In 2010, the exit poll was actually almost spot-on in predicting the number of seats won by each of the main parties as David Cameron fell short of a majority. And, even though in 2015 it failed to pick the Conservatives majority under Mr Cameron, it still correctly showed the Tories had won far more seats than the polls during the campaign had suggested.

▪️ Overall turnout

Turnout at General Elections hovvered between 70-80% for most of the 20th Century but, since the turn of the Millennium, it has dropped to 60-70%. In 2001, in an election dubbed Labour's "quiet landslide", turnout fell as low as 59.4% - although it has been at a rather heathlier 68.8% and 67.3% in the two most recent General Elections in 2017 and 2019. A lower turnout than usual this time could spell more trouble for the Conservatives if it is their disenchanted supporters who have declined the invitation to attend the ballot box. 

▪️ New boundaries and notional majorities

The outgoing Parliament finally voted on the recommendations made by the Boundary Commission, meaning this General Election will be the first to be contested under the new boundaries. To the casual observer, it will mean for many voters that they will be voting in a constituency which has changed its name. More than that, though, the geography of the new seat will be, in some cases, significantly different to its predecessor - and that leads us onto notional majorities. A notional majority is a calculation made to determine what an election result would have been in a previous election if the newly-created boundaries had been in place then. Originally, the boundary changes were expected to benefit the Conservatives slightly more than the other parties as the Commission's findings account for population movement which is generally from the north to the south, where more Conservative support is based. Such has been the steepness of the decline in the popularity of the Tories, though, that - beyond a new set of seat names - the changes will have a negligible effect. 

▪️ Big fish

It is something of a mark of the chaos of the previous Parliament that, between the elections of 2019 and 2024, there have been three Prime Ministers, five Chancellors of the Exchequer, four Home Secretaries, and four Foreign Secretaries in the four Great Offices of State, as shown below. Several of these figures are not standing for re-election while current Foreign Secretary David Cameron sits in the House of Lords. But might Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, James Cleverly or even Rishi Sunak produce a moment to rival that of the deposition of Michael Portillo in 1997?

Prime MinisterChancellorHome SecretaryForeign Secretary
Boris Johnson
(2019 to 06-Sep-2022)






Sajid Javid
(2019 to 13-Feb-2020)
Rishi Sunak
(13-Feb-2020 to 05-Jul-2022)
Nadhim Zahawi
(05-Jul-2022 to 06-Sep-2022)
Priti Patel
(2019 to 06-Sep-2022)






Dominic Raab
(2019 to 15-Sep-2021)
Liz Truss
(15-Sep-2021 to 06-Sep-2022)



Liz Truss
(06-Sep-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)


Kwasi Kwarteng
(06-Sep-2022 to 14-Oct-2022) 
Jeremy Hunt
(since 14-Oct-2022)

Suella Braverman

(06-Sep-2022 to 19-Oct-2022)
Grant Shapps
(19-Oct-2022 to 25-Oct-2022)
James Cleverly
(06-Sep-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)


Rishi Sunak
(since 25-Oct-2022)



Suella Braverman

(25-Oct-2022 to 13-Nov-2023)
James Cleverly
(since 13-Nov-2023)
Baron (David) Cameron
(since 13-Nov-2023)









▪️ Number of Conservative seats, size of Labour majority

Labour won 418 seats under Tony Blair at the 1997 General Election for a majority of 179 - while the Conservatives under John Major were reduced to 165. The Tories had fared worse only in 1906, when they took only 131 seats - yet there is speculation, even among dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives, that one or more of these records could be broken. 

▪️ Number of seats won by Liberal Democrats, Reform, and Green Party

The First Past The Post system encourages dominance by two parties by its very nature and makes it difficult for smaller parties to make much impact at a General Election. Over the years, the Lib Dems often punched above the weight of their overall vote by pouring their resources into select target seats - and the Green Party and Reform appear to be following suit. Mainly appealing to those on the left-wing who are disaffected by the centrist shift of the Labour leadership, the Greens have set their sights on Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, as well as holding Brighton Pavilion despite the retirement of four-term MP Caroline Lucas. Meanwhile, Reform will look to have attracted people disenchanted with politics generally - and, as well as holding Ashfield which the party gained in March 2024 as a result of the defection of Lee Anderson, leader Nigel Farage is aiming to make it into Parliament at the eighth time of asking as MP for Clacton. Other targets for Reform include Boston and Skegness, Basildon and Billericay and Great Yarmouth. 

▪️ Number of seats won by the Scottish Nationalist Party

Up to this point, this preview has focused on seats in England and Wales - but the situation in Scotland is slightly different. There, Labour again appears to be benefiting from a collapse in support of a scandal-hit ruling party, except in this case that party is the Scottish Nationalists, and not the Conservatives. The SNP has been in power in the Scottish Parliament since 2007, and has won the most seats north of the border in the last three General Elections - but it faces the outcome of an ongoing investigation by Police Scotland into possible fundraising fraud. Prior to SNP surge, during the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown era, Scotland was a bedrock of Labour support - and polling suggests Sir Keir Starmer has begun to recover much of the lost ground in Central Belt. Still, in contrast to the so-called Red Wall in England and large parts of Wales which are expected to return fully to the Labour fold, the political outlook in Scotland looks set to be finely balanced - and the SNP will aim to limit their losses after a rough few years. 

Monday, 24 July 2023

Another messy night

LABOUR overturned a majority of more than 20,000 in the Selby and Ainsty by-election on Thursday to gain its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945.

Keir Mather, aged 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons - the Baby of the House - after he secured 16,456 votes (46%) compared to Conservative candidate Clare Holmes's 12,295 (34.3%) on a swing of 23.7%.

Additionally, on a night when three seats were up for grabs, the Tories also lost heavily in Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats who produced a quite remarkable 29% swing.

But, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives defied dreadful national polls by claiming victory in the seat vacated in July by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Johnson had resigned as an MP following the publishing of a highly-critical report by the Parliamentary Privileges Committee into Partygate which recommended his suspension from Parliament.

But, despite avoiding the indignity of becoming the first PM to lose three by-elections on the same night since Harold Wilson in 1968, the storm clouds are still gathering for the current incumbent Rishi Sunak.

After all, the held seat in outer London was attributed almost entirely to local factors with triumphant Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell pointedly directing his victory speech to Labour mayor Sadiq Khan for his proposed imposition of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on the area.

Under the scheme, drivers must pay £12.50 per day if they drive a vehicle which does not meet modern emission standards.

Generally, these are diesel vehicles that are more than seven years old, or petrol vehicles that are more than 17 years old.

Mr Khan defended the policy even after the result in the early hours of Friday morning, saying: "It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?"

Additionally, the complaints of the Conservatives ring rather hollow if the reality of the situation is considered as ULEZ was actually initiated by Mr Johnson while he was London mayor.

The extension of the scheme to outer London under Mr Khan was also a condition set by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in exchange for financial support for Transport for London during COVID-19.

Nonetheless, Mr Tuckwell's message had a decisive effect on the seat - and, after being decidedly non-committal during campaign, Labour leader Sir Keir Starter called upon Mr Khan to "reflect" on his decision to expand ULEZ, all of a sudden rather hanging him out to dry.

That much-quoted adage of Benjamin Franklin of never interrupting an opponent while they are making a mistake appears to explain the previously cautious strategy of the Labour leader.

But, despite failing in Uxbridge, this somewhat questionable tactic might still work overall as, another political cliché - which suggests governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them - also appears to be ringing true.

The defeat in Selby and Ainsty, a long-time Tory-held rural seat in North Yorkshire, can only be considered to be a response to a government which has dragged the public, in political terms, to hell and back.

It started with austerity brought in by David Cameron in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis - then, following his resignation immediately after a losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, his successor Theresa May called a self-defeating General Election in which she lost her majority and caused complete stalemate in the Commons.

Mrs May's eventual replacement Mr Johnson - following a difficult start in which he almost seemed like his own worst enemy even among his own party - appeared to steady matters by routing a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour at the 2019 General Election.

But, three months later, COVID-19 arrived and threw the government into chaos again.

Mr Johnson applied inconsistent lockdown restrictions while Downing Street staff members unashamedly held alcohol-fuelled parties, including one on the night before Queen Elizabeth II buried her husband Prince Philip.

Eventually, after months of pressure, Mr Johnson was forced to resign as PM in July 2022, prompting a messy leadership election from which Liz Truss somehow emerged the winner.

Ms Truss arrived attempting to increase spending and cut taxes, an audacious move at a time of rising prices worldwide and one which spooked the markets so badly that, with a tenure of only 49 days, she became the shortest reigning Prime Minister in history.

Enter Mr Sunak but, as something of a charisma vacuum, he is also someone who - it has been perhaps less easily forgotten - stood alongside and was fined for a coronavirus indiscretion alongside Mr Johnson while Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Back to the by-elections on Thursday - and the south west of England is an area in which Labour has never been particularly competitive and their voters also appear willing to vote tactically.

In fact, in Somerton and Frome, the Labour candidate polled a miserable 1,009 votes (2.6%) to lose his deposit - but Labour voters there surely knew it was the Lib Dems who are the main threat to the Tories anyway.

By-election victories in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022 and now in Somerton and Frome strongly suggest Sir Ed Davey's party will indeed cause a lot of trouble for the Tories in this region at the next General Election.

In 1997, the Lib Dems won 14 seats in the south west - and they won the same number in 2010 in an overall total of 57 to prevent Mr Cameron from gaining a majority at the first attempt.

Instead, a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition was formed - though, following a near-wipeout in 2015, the Lib Dems certainly will not go down that particularly cul-de-sac again in the course of another hung parliament.

Of course, Labour continues to boast significant poll leads so will be looking towards a first outright majority since Tony Blair was victorious in 2005.

But results like the one in Uxbridge cast doubt on that ambition.

Indeed, only a fool would assess the next General Election on the basis of a uniform national swing in which all of the seats across the whole country are predicted to behave in the same way.

The political landscape has been messy for almost two decades now with the global financial crisis, austerity policies, Brexit and COVID-19 causing various levels of chaos.

It is difficult to imagine then that the next General Election - expected in spring or autumn next year - will be anything other than messy too. 

BY ELECTION RESULTS
Thursday 20 July 2023

UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP


Steve TuckwellCON13,96545.2%(-7.4%)
Danny BealesLAB13,47043.6%(+6.0%)
Sarah GreenGRN8932.9%(+0.7%)
Laurence FoxRCM7142.3%(-)
Blaise BaquicheLD5261.7%(-4.6%)
Others
1,3574.4%
CON hold • Turnout 46.2% (17.3%)

SELBY AND AINSTY



Keir MatherLAB16,45646.0%(+21.4%)
Claire HolmesCON12,29534.3%(-26.0%)
Arnold WarnekenGRN1,8385.1%(+1.9%)
Mike JordanYP1,5034.2%(+0.8%)
Dave KentRFM1,3323.7%(-)
Matt WalkerLD1,1883.3%(-5.3%)
Others
1,1953.5%
LAB GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.8% (-27.2%)

SOMERTON AND FROME


Sarah DykeLD21,18754.6%(+28.4%)
Faye PurbrickCON10,17926.2%(-29.6%)
Martin DimeryGRN3,94410.2%(+5.1%)
Bruce EvansRFM1,3033.4%(-)
Neil GuildLAB1,0092.6%(-10.3%)
Others
1,1663.0%
LD GAIN FROM CON  Turnout 44.2% (-31.4%)

KEY ▪️ CON Conservatives  LAB Labour  LD Liberal Democrats  GRN Green  RCM Reclaim  YP Yorkshire Party  RFM Reform UK

Friday, 14 April 2023

Snooker finds itself in a terrible fix


SNOOKER will attempt to emerge from the shadow of a match-fixing crisis currently engulfing the game with the start of the World Championship at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield.

In a dispiriting series of events, the governing body - the World Professional Billiards and Snooker Association (WPBSA) - suspended 10 Chinese players between October and January for a range of offences related to match-fixing.

These players included the 2021 UK Championship winner Zhao Xintong, who would have otherwise been ranked in the top 16, and the 2021 Masters champion Yan Bingtao.

Also suspended were Lu Ning, Li Hang, Zhao Jianbo, Bai Langning, Chang Bingyu, Zhang Jiankang, Chen Zifan, and Liang Wenbo.

Liang was never a particularly popular player on tour and is a convicted domestic abuser off the table - and, at the age of 36, the former UK Championship finalist is by far the most experienced of the cohort.

The much younger Chang posted a lengthy, now-deleted message on Chinese microblogging website Weibo, in which he accused Liang of making threatening telephone calls on the morning of a match ordering him to lose 4-1.

Chang duly lost by that exact scoreline to Jamie Jones at the Last 32 stage of the British Open in September.

Of course, there is the distinct possibility that some or all of the suspended players have acted under duress from a much wider mafia-led betting syndicate in the Far East.

After all, these young Chinese players are a long way from home on a tour which has not been able to return to their homeland since before the COVID-19 pandemic first erupted there three years ago.

As such, they can be considered particularly vulnerable to becoming victims of exploitation, perhaps even to extent that their lives or the lives of their family members back in China have been threatened.

Certainly, it is noticeable that top Chinese player Ding Junhui is not involved - and it is possible that his big reputation and career earnings have insulated him from the external pressures faced by his compatriots.

In the opinion of world number one, Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker is in “the worst place it has ever been” with discontent on the tour on a range of issues beyond the match-fixing crisis, including the reduced calendar and prize money available since the pandemic.

O'Sullivan said: “We are playing for the winner gets £80,000 most weeks and the runner-up gets £35,000. It’s bang in trouble.

“Mark Allen has done well this year, Judd Trump did well a couple of years before that. A few others do alright. But for the rest, there is nothing there."

For their part, a World Snooker spokesperson provided the following response: "Post-COVID, we are committed to returning to China in 2023 and optimistic about that prospect."

However, it is unclear the extent to which the suspension of the 10 Chinese players has affected the dynamic of any negotiations with tournament organisers in China.

For the record, it is important to note that, at the time of writing, the players concerned have not been found to have broken any rules and remain suspended pending the result of an independent disciplinary tribunal.

Nevertheless, WPBSA chairman Jason Ferguson has stated explicitly that the governing body has moved away from being merely in an investigatory position to acting now in the role of prosecution, and that each player has some sort of case to answer.

Last month, there was another bombshell as tour veteran Mark King was suspended amid allegations of irregular betting patterns during his 4-0 defeat to Joe Perry in the first round of the Welsh Open in February.

King has previously spoken publicly about his attendance at Gamblers Anonymous meetings to cope with his gambling addiction - but it is always possible that he has fallen into the trap of old habits.

Onto the draw - and defending champion O'Sullivan begins the tournament as favourite, as usual.

However, the seven-time winner had to withdraw from the World Snooker Tour Classic last month with a recurring elbow injury which needed hospital treatment - and he has played just 14 matches in 2023.

Indeed, it may be that O'Sullivan will have to wait another year for a record eighth world title - that is, if it comes at all.

Trump is another player scratching around for form - the Masters champion has featured in only one final in ranking events this season, losing a decider in the World Grand Prix to Allen.

Notably, the 33-year-old Bristolian also received a difficult draw against 2020 semi finalist Anthony McGill.

Instead, the in-form players during the 2022-23 campaign have been Allen, who also won the UK Championship and the Northern Irish Open, and 2005 winner Shaun Murphy.

The Magician warmed up for the big event by reaching the final of the Welsh Open before winning the Players Championship and the Tour Championship, all in the last couple of months.

But victory at the Crucible has never gone to the winner of the Tour Championship since that event was introduced to the calendar in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Pistol has only ever played a single semi final at the World Championship - and that was all the way back in 2009.

Experience counts for a lot at the Crucible with multi-session matches played over a marathon period of 17 days.

Therefore, it is difficult to look past the likes of four-time winners John Higgins and Mark Selby, both of whom are in the same quarter, and three-time champion Mark Williams.

Higgins's last world title was back in 2011 - but the Scot was runner-up three years in a row between 2017 and 2019, and he was in bullish mood ahead of this year's competition.

"People might think I'm a little bit deluded but I do think I've got one big one left in me," Higgins said.

At the other end of the scale, this year's World Championship features five debutants: Welshman Jak Jones, who faces Ali Carter, as well as a quartet of fresh Chinese faces - Pang Junxu, Fan Zhengyi, Wu Yize, and Si Jiahui.

Interestingly, Si already has history with his opponent Murphy after defeating the fourth seed in the first round of the 2021 UK Championship as a teenage amateur.

Following that match, Murphy stormed: "Amateur players should not be permitted to compete in professional tournaments" - even though he had entered the qualifiers of the Open golf as an amateur in 2019.

Elsewhere, among the players making their bow, Pang has drawn what promises to be a memorable encounter for him against O'Sullivan, while Fan and teenager Wu take on Allen and Australian left-hander Neil Robertson respectively.

Finally, Geordie snooker fans can feast upon a Tyneside derby between Wallsend-born 15th seed Gary Wilson and Elliot Slessor of Gateshead.

Wilson, who had a surprise run to the semi finals in 2019, had never previously been seeded for the Crucible - while Slessor will be making only his second appearance.

So this could be a cagey encounter then, especially as it will be played between two close friends - although hopefully it will prove to be a better match than that.

After all, it would be fair to say that snooker desperately needs some classic contests over the next two-and-a-bit weeks following the news of the last few months.

WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIP
CRUCIBLE THEATRE, SHEFFIELD
15 April-1 May



FIRST ROUND
Best of 19 frames

[1]Ronnie O'Sullivan10-7Pang Junxu

[16]Ding Junhui6-10Hossein Vafaei

[9]Luca Brecel10-9Ricky Walden
 [8]Mark Williams10-5Jimmy Robertson

[5]Judd Trump6-10Anthony McGill

[12]Jack Lisowski10-7Noppon Saengkham

[13]Robert Milkins10-9Joe Perry

[4]Shaun Murphy9-10Si Jiahui

[3]Mark Allen10-5Fan Zhengyi

[14]Stuart Bingham10-4David Gilbert

[11]Ali Carter6-10Jak Jones

[6]Neil Robertson10-3Wu Yize

[7]Kyren Wilson10-5Ryan Day

[10]John Higgins10-3David Grace

[15]Gary Wilson10-8Elliot Slessor

[2]Mark Selby10-8Matthew Selt



LAST 16
Best of 25 frames

[1]Ronnie O'Sullivan13-2Hossein Vafaei 

[9]Luca Brecel13-11Mark Williams[8]


Anthony McGill13-8Jack Lisowski[12]

[13]Robert Milkins7-13Si Jiahui

[3]Mark Allen13-4Stuart Bingham[14]


Jak Jones13-7Neil Robertson[6]

[7]Kyren Wilson2-13John Higgins[10]

[15]Gary Wilson7-13Mark Selby[2]



QUARTER FINALS
Best of 25 frames

[1]Ronnie O'Sullivan10-13Luca Brecel [9]


Anthony McGill12-13Si Jiahui

[3]Mark Allen13-10Jak Jones

[10]John Higgins7-13Mark Selby[2]



SEMI FINALS
Best of 33 frames

[9]Luca Brecel17-15Si Jiahui

[3]Mark Allen15-17Mark Selby[2]

Wednesday, 27 July 2022

Stuck in the middle with you


CONSERVATIVE Party members will decide whether Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss becomes their next leader - and British Prime Minister - as an already brutal leadership contest meanders towards its end in the first week of September.


Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr Sunak - who brought about the downfall of current PM Boris Johnson with his resignation from that role on 5 July - had been the early favourite with the bookmakers.

However, the MP for Richmond in North Yorkshire does not have a majority of the support from the Tory rank-and-file after his failure to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.

Instead, it is Ms Truss who now leads the polling and the betting market.

The contest effectively began on 7 July when Mr Johnson finally caved in after the resignations of Mr Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid were followed by an excruciating day in Westminster amid pressure from his own Conservative MPs.

First, Mr Johnson faced criticism from all sides of the House of Commons in a brutal session of Prime Minister's Questions - then, shortly afterwards, the PM's whole tenure was torn apart by members of the Liaison Committee.

Indeed, it became apparent on social media during the meeting that Nadhim Zahawi, the new Chancellor appointed less than two full days previously, was among several members of the Cabinet waiting at Downing Street for Mr Johnson so that they could tell him he needed to resign.

Meanwhile, Huw Merriman - who was around the table in the Committee room - sent out his resignation letter on Twitter while sat just yards from the PM.

In all, there were more than 50 ministerial resignations, the most ever suffered by a Prime Minister - although this also shows just how bloated the government payroll had become under Mr Johnson.

The resignations included Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland Secretary, whose scathing letter read: "A decent and responsible Government relies on honesty, integrity and mutual respect.

"It is a matter of profound personal regret that I must leave Government as I no longer believe those values are being upheld."

Michelle Donelan, the Education Secretary, who again had been appointed less than 48 hours earlier, also stepped down.

Bizarrely, another Education minister Will Quince quit - then, following the resignation of Mr Johnson and the reshuffle which followed, the Colchester MP reversed this decision and accepted the role at Education again.

Michael Gove was branded "a snake" by a Downing Street insider after he was sacked from his position as Levelling Up Secretary - a flagship, if ineffective, policy of the government.

Altogether, though, it was a humiliating day for Mr Johnson.

Yet, as usual, his eventual downfall came from a situation which the Prime Minister could have easily avoided.

Former Deputy Chief Whip Chris Pincher was reappointed to that position by Mr Johnson in February 2022 - despite the Prime Minister having been warned about his past sexual misconduct on at least five separate occasions.

Until 5 July, Mr Johnson denied being aware of these prior concerns - but then he sheepishly admitted he had made a "bad mistake" by not acting on information which he had received.

Mr Johnson had been caught out completely - and, for many Conservative MPs, including those who had supported Mr Johnson in a Vote of No Confidence on 6 June prompted by Partygate, this was the final straw.

Of course, it should not have taken anywhere near as long as this.

Arguably, the Conservative Party as a whole started losing its moral compass a few years ago - and lost it completely after their selection of Mr Johnson in July 2019.

In fairness, Mr Johnson, in contrast to his extremely wealthy background, was portrayed as a man of the people - electoral gold dust who had been Mayor of London for two full terms despite the distinctly leftward shift taken by the capital during that time.

Moreover, Mr Johnson - having calculated back in 2016 that it was in his best interests to oppose his old Eton chum David Cameron by supporting Britain leaving the European Union - vowed to get Brexit done following the stalemate at Westminster under Theresa May.

This promise delivered an 80-seat majority to the Conservatives in a General Election in December 2019 as Labour under Jeremy Corbyn was crushed in its heartlands in the North, Midlands and Wales.

Immediately afterwards, it seemed like this might set up a decade or more of dominance for the Conservatives - but, in March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck.

From then onwards, nothing felt particularly normal anymore.

The Tories spaffed billions of pounds of taxpayers' money, wasting as much as £37billion on a grossly ineffective track-and-trace system in a period that only their friends and donors will look back upon with any affection.

Subsequently, to the despair of many of their low tax-supporting backers, the Conservatives raised National Insurance to pay for their profligacy.

Nevertheless, even as late as June last year, the Tories enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls following the successful roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Little by little, though, the bad news began to trickle through - and, in late 2021 through to 2022, that trickle turned into a flood of Tory sleaze and scandal, worse than anything which engulfed the John Major government of the 1990s.

There was bullying, bribery, and an unnamed MP who has been banned from the House of Commons after being arrested on suspicion of rape.

On the same day, 23 June, the Conservatives lost two by-elections as the so-called Red Wall seat of Wakefield returned to Labour while the Liberal Democrats took Tiverton and Honiton on a swing of almost 30%.

The seat in the Devon heartlands was subject to a by-election after former MP, Neil Parish, resigned after admitting to watching pornography in the Commons chamber.

More scandalously, the former MP for Wakefield, Imran Ahmad Khan, caused a by-election after he was convicted of child sexual assault and jailed for 18 months.

Standards in public life have never been lower, something which was also quite apparent during the fiasco which has become known as Partygate.

In all, the Metropolitan Police issued 126 fixed penalty notices to 83 individuals whom the police found had committed offences under COVID-19 regulations, including one each to Mr Johnson, his wife Carrie Johnson, and Mr Sunak.

Civil Servant Sue Gray's final report in May 2022 described multiple events of excessive drinking and a lack of respect shown to cleaning and security staff.

One such event which incurred fines was on the eve of the funeral for Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh, at which the Queen sat alone on a pew in line with social distancing restrictions as she said goodbye to her husband.

Many other people did the same - and then there were the even less fortunate, whose relatives died in care homes, unable to be visited by those who loved them most.

COVID-19 ravaged care homes in particular after perhaps the most ill-thought out policy of them all during this period as patients were released from hospital back into care despite still being infectious.

For this alone, Mr Johnson should have resigned or been asked to resign.

Better late than never? Ask those who have suffered in any way over the past 18 months since Mr Johnson gained his mammoth majority...


Onto the contest for the new leader then - and, with 11 initial candidates, the Conservative Party had the appearance of a directionless, destructive mess.

Mr Javid, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, and complete outsider Rehman Christi withdrew before the contest actually officially began, with Gillingham and Rainham MP, Mr Christi, also knocked out after receiving absolutely no support at all.

At the first proper ballot, Mr Zahawi and former Cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt were eliminated.

However, only clueless lawyer, Attorney General Suella Braveman, went out in the second round, leaving five candidates remaining ahead of a series of fiery debates on 15 July (shown by Channel Four) and 17 July (shown by ITV).

Following the first debate, backbencher Tom Tughendhat failed to get through the third ballot - then, after the second debate, another round of voting took place resulting in the end of the ambitions of Kemi Badenoch.

A third debate was due to occur and be televised by Sky News on 19 July - but this was cancelled at short notice.

Instead, a further ballot was held and spelled the end of the road for Ms Mordaunt even though she had placed in the top two in each of the first four votes.

Ms Mordaunt's lead over Ms Truss had narrowed considerably in the third and fourth ballots, however, after she had struggled in the debates.

As a result, Mr Sunak and Ms Truss have emerged as the top two - and it would be fair to say that they are not exactly massive fans of each other.

On the economy, for instance, Mr Sunak accused Ms Truss in the debate on Monday of risking a huge increase in interest rates with her plans to cut tax immediately.

For her part, Ms Truss responded by suggesting Mr Sunak was "scaremongering" and providing a "Project Fear" forecast in a term lifted directly from the Brexit referendum.

In that vote, Ms Truss - although now a Brexit supporter - campaigned for Remain, while Mr Sunak backed Leave.

Of course, this was something which he swiftly pointed out to his rival after that "Project Fear" barb from Ms Truss.

The candidates are scheduled to take each other on in a further televised exchange on 4 August (Sky News), at around the same time 160,000 members' ballot papers will be distributed.

In the meantime, Mr Johnson has actually continued to wield a reasonable amount of power over his government, even his since resignation.

Tobias Elwood lost the Conservative whip last week, after he confirmed he had refused to back the Prime Minister in a House of Commons confidence vote.

Mr Elwood, a former Lieutenant Colonel in the British Army who gave mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to police officer PC Keith Palmer after the terrorist attack on Westminster in March 2017, deserves better.

However, the Bournemouth East MP is probably happy enough no longer to be tarnished by this administration and this Prime Minister.

In his final appearance at PMQs last Wednesday, Mr Johnson defiantly declared "Hasta la vista, baby" and received a standing ovation from most of the Tory MPs.

It is difficult to decide which was more cringeworthy - and so, unlike the risible Nadine Dorries, please do not weep for Mr Johnson.

The Prime Minister may seek sympathy after failing badly in his dream job - but he will no doubt use his privilege to get another highly-paid role elsewhere.

Hopefully, we will not be seeing him any time soon.


REMAINING CANDIDATES
 Rishi SUNAK
- MP for Richmond (Yorks) since 2015
- Chancellor of the Exchequer until July 2022
 Liz TRUSS
- MP for South West Norfolk since 2010
- Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, and a former Secretary of State for International Trade

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP ELECTION 
 Round-by-round

 (1)

 (2)

(3)

(4)

 (5)

 Rishi SUNAK
88
24.6%  101+1328.2%  115+1432.1%  118+333.1%  137+1938.3%
 Liz TRUSS
50
14.0%64+1417.9%71+719.8%86+1524.1%113+2731.6%
 Penny MORDAUNT
67
18.7%83+1623.2%82-122.9%92+1025.8%105+1329.3%
 Kemi BADENOCH
40
11.2%49+913.7%58+916.2%59+116.5%


 Tom TUGENDHAT
37
10.3%32-58.9%31-18.7%




 Suella BRAVEMAN
32
8.9%27-57.5%






 Nadhim ZAHAWI
257.0%









 Jeremy HUNT
18
5.0%