Merry Christmas, Mrs May

(Q)	Do you have confidence in Theresa May  as the leader of the Conservative party?
YES	200 (63.1%)
NO	117 (36.9%)

THERESA MAY survived her latest tumultuous week as Prime Minister after winning a confidence vote which had been brought against her by a group of rebel Conservative MPs.

Mrs May prevailed by 200 votes to 117 for an unconvincing majority of 83.

But, following a week in which the Tory divisions over Brexit were brutally exposed, the PM returned to the negotiating table in Brussels in an unequivocally weaker position.

For a start, Mrs May effectively only seems to have remained in her job because of a promise to her MPs that she will step down from the role ahead of any General Election.

Even on this, though, she has rapidly been forced to make a significant concession this week having originally said she would only not contest a vote as far off as 2022.

That left many Conservatives fearing that Mrs May would still be in place to lead the party if an earlier campaign came around.

After all, her reputation among many Tories has never recovered since she called a "snap" election in 2017, and the party unexpectedly lost its majority in the House of Commons.

Ever since then indeed, she appears to have been on borrowed time, relying on a confidence-and-supply arrangement with nine Democratic Unionists to pass legislation.

Now, though, the unresolved issue of what to do with the Irish border means Arlene Foster's hardline unionists are no longer a reliable source of support.

Instead, on some of the most important votes, the DUP MPs have allied themselves with a core of Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers led by cartoonish relic Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Already, the influence of this alliance in Westminster proceedings has been quite momentous.

On a chastening night last week, the group voted with other opposition parties to create history as Mrs May's Government became the first administration in history to be found in Contempt of Parliament.

The problem there was that the Government had only provided an outline of the legal basis for its Brexit deal whereas Parliament had previously voted to be given the full advice.

Subsequently, the full advice was published ahead of an expectation this week that a so-called "meaningful vote" would be held on whether to approve Mrs May's deal.

All through last weekend, the PM and her ministers were adamant that the vote in the Commons would go ahead - but, as time wore on, it became ever more obvious that the Government was going to be defeated again, and perhaps heavily defeated.

Consequently, on the eve of the division, Mrs May called the whole thing off and admitted outright to the Commons that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority as it stood.

For many in the Conservative party, it was one show of weakness too many from the Prime Minister and a backbench-led confidence vote became as inevitable an event as Mrs May's failure in the Commons would have been.

The short-term difference was that the Prime Minister knew she could win a confidence vote - and she did, something which in itself has the important effect of providing her with immunity from another such challenge for a full 12 months.

At the same time, though, European leaders appear unwilling to budge from the deal on the table - and so, the situation has now reached a seemingly insoluble stalemate.

In a bizarre way, though, this can help to predict where this goes from here.

Mrs May's deal appears dead in the water while the Irish and/or the EU will not negotiate any further over the backstop so the number of possible outcomes has been automatically limited.

It would seem then either Britain will fall out of the EU on 29 March next year without any sort of deal, or the political gridlock will be acknowledged and a final decision will be thrown back to an exasperated public who mostly just want this all to be over.

Feasibly, of course, both could happen - and, surely, surely, there must be some way out of this mess.

Then again, the Joker once famously remarked exactly that to the Thief - and neither of them ended any further forward. 

⭐BREXIT: A TIMELINE⭐

⭐24 January 2013 Report
Then-Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, if the Conservatives won a majority at the 2015 General Election, the Government would hold a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the European Union (EU) following a series of renegotiations.

⭐30 March 2015
A General Election was called following the dissolution of the Parliament under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011.

⭐7 May 2015 Report
The General Election was held. David Cameron defied expectations of a Hung Parliament and led the Conservatives to their first outright majority since 1997.

⭐19 February 2016
David Cameron announced the outcome of the renegotiations. The renegotiated terms were in addition to existing opt-outs in the EU as well as the UK rebate - but critics argued there would be no fundamental change to the EU-UK relationship.

⭐20-21 February 2016 Report
David Cameron effectively fired the starting pistol on an in-out referendum by announcing it would be held on 23 June 2016. On the following morning, his long-time rival - the then-Mayor of London Boris Johnson - confirmed he would be backing the Vote Leave campaign

⭐23-24 June 2016
Britain voted 52-48 in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit). David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister on the following morning, triggering a Conservative leadership election.

⭐30 June 2016
Then-Justice Secretary Michael Gove confirmed his bid to become party leader, prompting Boris Johnson, the bookmakers' favourite, to announce he would not enter the leadership contest.

⭐13 July 2016 Report
Theresa May formally became Prime Minister having beaten Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove in the Conservative leadership contest. On the same day, George Osborne was sacked as Chancellor of Exchequer in a reshuffle, and replaced by Philip Hammond.

⭐3 November 2016
The Supreme Court ruled in the favour of Gina Miller who had campaigned for Brexit to be approved through Parliament.

⭐17 January 2017
Theresa May announced that Brexit would be subject to a "meaningful vote" in both Houses of Parliament.

⭐29 March 2017
Article 50 was formally invoked, starting a two-year countdown until Britain severs ties with the EU.

⭐18 April 2017
Theresa May - comfortably ahead in the polls - called a "snap" General Election.

⭐8 June 2017 Report
The General Election was held. The result showed the Conservatives remained the largest party but that they had lost their majority due to a Labour resurgence under Jeremy Corbyn.

⭐9 June 2017
Theresa May vowed to continue as PM and struck a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

⭐13 July 2017
David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, introduced a bill in the House of Commons which ensured Britain's withdrawal from the EU would be subject to a "meaningful vote".

⭐July 2017-November 2017
Negotiation phase 1: A series of talks in Brussels (17-20 July, 28-31 August, 7 September, 25 September, 9-12 October, 9-10 November) over Britain's withdrawal from the EU were held.

⭐4 December 2017
A draft agreement was expected to be finalised at a meeting between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. However, the meeting was abandoned after the DUP objected to arrangements for the Irish border

⭐December 2017-March 2018
Negotiation phase 2: transitional arrangements included an Irish backstop which was agreed in principle by Theresa May and EU chief negotiator Michael Barnier. The backstop potentially tied Northern Ireland to EU trade laws beyond Brexit.

⭐26 June 2018
The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.

⭐6 July 2018
Theresa May summoned her Cabinet to Chequers to shore up support for her Brexit agreement.

⭐8-9 July 2018
Brexit Secretary David Davis tendered his resignation, stating the deal - as it stood - was too soft. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also stepped down as he considered the deal had the potential to turn Britain "into a European colony". Dominic Raab was appointed as Brexit Secretary in a reshuffle.

⭐July-November 2018
Negotiation phase 3: Britain negotiated trade relations with EU after Brexit.

⭐15 November 2018
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, saying he “cannot in good conscience” support the deal agreed by the cabinet. He was joined by a spate of others including Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.

⭐16 November 2018
Stephen Barclay became the third Brexit Secretary of the year.

⭐4 December 2018
The Government lost three votes in the Commons and was found in contempt of Parliament. Consequently, the Government was forced to publish its full legal advice on Brexit.

⭐10 December 2018
Theresa May was forced to call off the "meaningful vote" in Parliament, admitting that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority for her deal in the Commons.

⭐12 December 2018 Report
At least 48 Tory MPs' letters were sent into Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. A vote of no confidence was called in Theresa May which she won with a majority of 83 (200-117).

The Brexit month of political May-hem

THERESA MAY has officially taken over as the 75th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on another extraordinary day of British politics in Westminster.

Mrs May entered Downing Street shortly after her predecessor David Cameron made his last appearance at the despatch box at Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons.

And the handover is quite appropriate, for this whole tumult was set in motion by Mr Cameron as long ago as January 2013.

It was back then that he vowed to hold a referendum on British membership of the European Union if the Conservatives got a majority in the General Election.

At the time, it was a political gamble aimed at keeping his backbenchers on side while stopping the drift of Tory voters towards UKIP.

But, when he made the announcement, a Conservative majority government actually did not look too likely.

Then, May 2015 happened.

Labour had collapsed to the Scottish Nationalists north of the border and the Liberal Democrats were utterly routed across the country generally, but particularly against the Conservatives in the south west.

Somehow, Mr Cameron had eked out a majority of 12 and so had to deliver on a promise which he did not think he would ever have to keep.

Unconvincing negotiations with fellow EU leaders followed - and, having played hardball and gained nothing but the most measly of compromises, Mr Cameron then awkwardly had to campaign to stay in.

Almost immediately, he unsurprisingly ran into trouble.

For, if it was not bad enough having the then-UKIP leader Nigel Farage leading the Leave campaign, the loss of support from his old friend Boris Johnson was perhaps an early blow from which the Remainers never recovered.

Mr Johnson, of course, had acted purely in self-interest, as proven by the overtures he had previously made towards the EU when he was London mayor.

But his overwhelming desire for job of Prime Minister outweighed everything else, and his ultimate personal failure - to which I will come - was stunning and oddly satisfying, given his hypocrisy.

Mr Johnson nevertheless played an important part for the Leave team, although both campaigns were surely among the most shoddily ever run by mainstream British politicians.

The Remain side - in a move labelled Project Fear by its opponents - seemed only to warn of the dire consequences of leaving the EU. None of its benefits was mentioned.

Meanwhile, the Leavers provided hardly any vision at all of what a post-Brexit Britain would look like - as would become apparent in the days ahead.

Indeed, much of the media coverage focused on what appeared to be a battle for the Conservative leadership between the incumbents Mr Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne on one side and Mr Johnson and Michael Gove on the other.

Ultimately, as predicted, most people were left thorough confused or just totally disenchanted with the debate, and so understandably went with their gut feeling on 23 June.

That gut feeling was to leave the EU.

The margin of victory for the Leavers - by 52% to 48% or approximately 1.3m votes - was not exactly huge but the fact that it happened at all made it a truly momentous event in the history of Britain.

Mr Cameron, swayed by weakness to promise a vote in the first place, had suddenly never been weaker.

So, unsurprisingly on the morning of 24 June, he felt he had no other option but to resign as a failure, offering to stay on until October in a caretaker capacity.

And it was at this point that the real power games began.

Slowly but surely, the candidates for the Conservative leadership lined themselves up with the contest expected to be between Mrs May, a Remain supporter, and Mr Johnson.

Naturally, Mr Johnson had backed on receiving the support of his Leave colleague Mr Gove.

But on 30 June, just three hours before the nominations closed, Mr Gove announced his own candidacy having come to the conclusion that Mr Johnson could not "provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead”.

The Telegraph described the move by Mr Gove as "the most spectacular political assassination in a generation" - and it was indeed a deliciously premature end to the Johnson campaign before the contest had even properly begun.

Historically, a streak of ruthlessness seems to have been admired by the Conservatives.

Witness the ascent and the downfall of Margaret Thatcher or, more recently, the removal of Iain Duncan-Smith as leader even before he could fight a General Election.

However, Mr Gove had even been too brutal for a Tory - and, after Dr Liam Fox had been eliminated and outsider Stephen Crabb had withdrawn following the first ballot on 5 July, he was soundly beaten in the second vote on 7 July.

Mrs May unsurprisingly finished top, with the backing of 199 MPs - but second place went to a largely previously unheralded Leave campaigner Andrea Leadsom.

Mrs Leadsom picked up 84 votes, against Mr Gove's 46 - and so ensured that, by September, Britain would have its second female Prime Minister.

Except it has all happened rather more quicker than that. Mrs Leadsom, like Icarus before her, has already burned her wings having flown too close to the sun in her rapid ascent.

Rather than The Sun, though, it was instead a problem with the Times - with whom she had given an interview (£) which was published on 9 July.

In the interview, Mrs Leadsom made the highly controversial statement that she would be better placed to lead the country because she has children, whereas Mrs May does not.

Under pressure, she hurriedly denied the claim and ordered the newspaper to publish the full transcript. But the transcript duly followed and did not contradict anything which had been printed.

Subsequently, Mrs Leadsom demanded the Times release the audio of the interview - if anything, though, this further weakened her case, given the emphasis which she placed on her point.

And so, after a weekend of scrutiny - or abuse, according to Mrs Leadsom - the MP for South Northamptonshire officially ended her campaign on Monday.

Mrs May was in the clear.

Of course, the new PM does not exactly take over from a position of strength.

It became evident within hours that some of the promises which the Leave campaigners had made in the run-up to the vote were - and there is no other way of putting this - a pack of lies.

Within hours of winning the referendum on 24 June, Mr Farage - who, in the meantime, has stepped down from his position as UKIP leader for the umpteenth time - denied £350m per week would now be spent on the National Health Service.

Then, the next day, Conservative MEP and Leave campaigner Daniel Hannan suggested that there would not be a "radical decline" in immigration - all far removed from Mr Farage's poster.

No wonder then that Mrs May has entrusted two of the other three Great Offices of State in her new government to fellow Remain supporters.

Key ally Philip Hammond is the new Chancellor, in place of the sacked Mr Osborne, while Amber Rudd fills Mrs May's former job of Home Secretary.

But Mr Johnson - yes, him again - does not get away with leaving his post-Brexit mess entirely to others.

Ludicrously, he is the new Foreign Secretary, a role in which his fine-tuned diplomatic skills should come to the fore.

Finally, it is not all bad news in the May cabinet for Leave supporters. The appointment of strong Leave campaigner David Davis as Secretary of State for Exiting the EU confirms there is no going back on this historic decision.

Having reached enough online signatories, the petition for a second EU referendum will be debated in Parliament after the recess on 5 September.

Under Mrs May, though, there will not be one - and nor should there be. The decision has been made, for better or worse - and only a true masochist would want a repeat of those two campaigns again.

Instead, the new PM will see her task as one of somehow steering Britain through some of the rockiest waters in its post-war existence.

At least, though, she will consider that she is able to do so without any significant effective opposition in the Commons.

For, as the Conservatives slowly untangle themselves, Labour continues to engage in a civil war so fierce that it almost feels inevitable the party will split.

But all that is for another day and a different blog altogether.
 
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP ELECTION

	Westminster seat	EU stance	First  ballot	Second  ballot	Members'  ballot
Theresa MAY	(Maidenhead)	Remain	165	199	unopposed
Andrea LEADSOM	(South Northamptionshire)	Leave	66	84	withdrew
Michael GOVE	(Surrey Heath)	Leave	48	46	-
Stephen CRABB	(Preseli Pembrokeshire)	Remain	34	withdrew	-
Dr Liam FOX	(North Somerset)	Leave	16	-	-

THERESA MAY'S CABINET

	Westminster seat	EU stance	Position
Theresa MAY	(Maidenhead)	Remain	Prime Minister
Philip HAMMOND	(Runnymede & Weybridge)	Remain	Chancellor of Exchequer
Boris JOHNSON	(Uxbridge & South Ruislip)	Leave	Foreign Secretary
Amber RUDD	(Hastings & Rye)	Remain	Home Secretary
Michael FALLON	(Sevenoaks)	Remain	Defence Secretary
David DAVIS	(Haltemprice & Howden)	Leave	Brexit Secretary
Dr Liam FOX	(North Somerset)	Leave	International Trade

IDS brings down shapeshifter Osborne's house of cards

IAIN DUNCAN SMITH sent shockwaves through Westminster last night after resigning his position as Work and Pensions Secretary over disagreements with George Osborne's budget.

Mr Duncan Smith, a former Conservative party leader, wrote of cuts to the benefits of disabled people to be "a compromise too far" when set against the desire for the country to balance the books.

He added: "While they are defensible in narrow terms, given the continuing deficit, they are not defensible in the way they were placed within a budget that benefits higher earning taxpayers."

Here, Mr Duncan Smith refers to the increase in the starting point of the 40% tax band from £42,385 now to £45,000 in April 2017.

That was a move by Mr Osborne which was generally well received as, along with the increase in the personal allowance to £11,500 next April, it helps many workers in middle England.

Moreover, fuel duty was frozen for a sixth year in a row - while beer, cider and spirit duties were also frozen.

Yet, despite these little pick-me-ups, the overall impression of the budget this year was unquestionably negative.

No doubt to some extent that was down to Mr Osborne himself. Growth forecasts were revised downwards markedly for the next five years while borrowing was revised upwards.

Mr Osborne also admitted he would miss his target of reducing debt as a share of GDP - one of his three golden rules - but declared public finances were still projected to achieve a £10.4bn surplus in 2019/20.

That can only be achieved by making a further £3.5bn-worth of cuts by 2020, some of which were projected to fall upon the disabled.

Consequently, the budget was not only perceived as being negative, it was also considered to be unfair in a poll by a margin of 38%-28%.

Only 13% of people support the disability cuts while 70% think they are the wrong priority at the present time, including 59% of Tory voters.

In fact, this is the first budget which has been considered more unfair than fair since the "omnishambles" of 2012 - and Mr Osborne's personal ratings had already taken a hit even before Mr Duncan Smith's decision.

Prime Minister David Cameron, meanwhile, has said he is "puzzled and disappointed" that Mr Duncan Smith has resigned.

He added: "While we are on different sides in the vital debate about the future of Britain's relations with Europe, the Government will, of course, continue with its policy of welfare reform."

Ah yes, Europe. The issue which has divided - and, at times, torn apart - the Tory party for over 30 years has been dragged to the forefront of the political arena with the referendum date set for 23 June.

London mayor Boris Johnson has already made a calculated move by putting himself on the side of Leave. Would it be too cynical to suggest Mr Duncan Smith, another in favour of Brexit, is trying a similar tactic?

Perhaps it would not. After all, Mr Duncan Smith did not seem too concerned about welfare reform - i.e. cuts - when he celebrated wildly in the House of Commons last summer.

Instead, this decision to depart the Cabinet allows the MP for Chingford and Woodford Green to campaign more vigorously against Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne in the run-up to the referendum.

A rivalry with Mr Osborne, in particular, exists ever since the Chancellor is said to have described Mr Duncan Smith as "not clever enough".

But, whether that is true or not, this perceived scheming is doing little to give the impression that this Conservative government has the best interests of the country - rather than itself - at heart.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has this morning called directly on Mr Osborne to follow Mr Duncan Smith by resigning.

Mr Corbyn cited "a Government in disarray and a Chancellor who has lost the credibility to manage the economy in the interests of the majority of our people" while imploring again that "the Government must change economic course".

That, of course, seems unlikely - but the biggest worry for Mr Osborne may be the Government's wafer-thin majority.

Having already been forced into a U-turn over cuts to tax credits last year, the Chancellor faces a group of several Conservative MPs who have written a letter threatening to rebel again.

Either way, Mr Osborne's budget plans are now in a total mess - full of missed targets, broken golden rules and, worst of all, an attack on some of the most vulnerable in society.

It has taken a while to come to this - but the great British shapeshifter has finally started to become unmasked.

Earlier Budget reports from Mr Osborne 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(March)

The EU: Should we stay or should we go?

THE FUTURE of Britain's 43-year membership of the European Union will be decided in a referendum on Thursday 23 June following an announcement last weekend by Prime Minister David Cameron.

Voters will be asked: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Or, as The Clash almost wrote in 1981, albeit not about the EU, should we stay or should we go?

It will, undoubtedly, be a big, generation-defining decision which will hopefully settle an argument that has continued to rage in British politics ever since the 1970s.

Back in 1975, Harold Wilson's Labour government held the last referendum on the issue, the result of which strongly backed the decision of Mr Wilson's predecessor Ted Heath to enter what was then known as the Common Market in 1973.

Even then, Mr Wilson made an admission in a letter to the public. He wrote: "We do not pretend, and never have pretended, that we got everything we wanted".

And, since the return to power of the Conservatives in 2010, the issue has headed to the forefront of the political scenery once again.

Moreover, truthfully, it has never much looked like going away either. In 2014, Nigel Farage's insurgent UKIP won the most votes and seats in the European elections.

Meanwhile, under pressure from Conservative eurosceptic backbenchers, Mr Cameron had already guaranteed, in January 2013, a national vote on the EU if his Tory party won a majority.

At the time, that looked fanciful. After all, Mr Cameron had failed to secure a majority in 2010 in an election against Gordon Brown after 13 years of New Labour.

In 2015, however, a perfect storm for the Conservatives developed as Labour collapsed in Scotland to the Nationalists while the Tories themselves gained a whole swathe of seats in the south west from the Liberal Democrats.

Just like in the 1992 general election, the pollsters had got it wrong - and, just like in 1992, the United Kingdom had a Conservative majority government.

So, now it has been established how exactly we have got to this stage, the big question for the pollsters is if they will do any better for this vote?

Frankly, the early signs are that the polls will not necessarily be a good guide to the actual outcome - some surveys have a lead for Remain while others put Leave ahead.

Perhaps an explanation for this muddled picture is the lack of clear information to hand. Certainly, the media coverage so far has not exactly helped.

Indeed, the biggest story which has emerged to date has been that London mayor Boris Johnson will campaign for "Brexit".

It is a decision inconsistent with some of his previous statements but one which would seem best to suit his naked ambition to be the next Conservative leader and PM.

Ultimately, it was the Guardian which summed up the whole charade pretty well, dismissing the importance of Mr Johnson's move and reminding us that we will all have a vote to use on 23 June.

So, where do my thoughts currently lie then? Instinctively, in an ever more globalised world, my view is that the UK should stay in the European Union.

The bloc is the country's biggest trading partner - and it is also an organisation which has done wonders for workers' rights and other everyday stuff from the price of flights to the price of mobile phone data charges.

At the same time, I understand some of the concerns and complaints of the Leave campaigners - that the EU is just too shadowy an organisation with unclear decision-making processes.

In an ideal world then, the next few months would see a firm analysis of a variety of issues surrounding the EU.

But, with much of the media being sidetracked into irrelevance or having made up its mind, there already seems little chance of that.

Of course, the consolation to be taken from this is that the result on 23 June will likely be based on the majority of the nation's gut feeling.

And, at least, that way there should be no complaints about the outcome. The British people will have spoken.

Budget 2015: Osborne serves up pre-election Budget

CHANCELLOR George Osborne today delivered his sixth Budget in the last major event of the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ahead of the general election on 7 May.

There are now exactly 50 days to go until polling day, something you could definitely tell from an hour-long speech which was dripping in politics.

For a start, Mr Osborne has craftily adjusted his accounts so that he now forecasts there will only be a £7bn surplus to the government in 2019-20.

This projection is down sharply on the £23bn figure mentioned in the Autumn Statement as recently as December - and it is a move which directly quells Labour's oft-repeated clam that public spending under the Tories would return to levels not seen since the 1930s.

Instead, Mr Osborne can point out that the public spending under his stewardship would be no lower than it was in 2000 when Labour's Gordon Brown was in charge.

Another highly political manouevre came in the reduction of the Lifetime Allowance for pension savings from £1.25m to £1m.

Labour had proposed the same cut as a way of funding a decrease in tuition fees from £9,000-a-year to £6,000 - but now Ed Miliband looks rather cornered by both coalition parties.

Liberal Democrats had already criticised the fee cut as one which would, in reality, only benefit graduates who go on to be wealthy enough anyway.

And now the Tories can ask again where the money for it will come from if Labour is intent on balancing the books.

Elsewhere in his report, Mr Osborne identified policies clearly aimed at key voters ahead of the election.

In her biggest giveaway, first-time buyers could benefit from a Help-to-Buy ISA in which aspiring homeowners who save up to £200-a-month receive a £50 bonus from the government.

Meanwhile, self employed workers will not weep at the the thought of no longer having to pay Class 2 National Insurance contributions - nor, for that matter, lament the death of the dreaded self assessment tax return.

Savers will have been pleased to see the introduction of an annual personal savings allowance of £1,000, something which will take 95% of people out of paying any tax on their investments.

And even the announcement of £7bn-worth of funding in public transport in the south west was all geared towards the Conservatives gaining ground in a crucial election battleground against the Lib Dems.

Of course, there were the usual sweeteners - a penny off the price of a pint, a 2% cut in the duty on cider and Scottish whisky, and another fuel duty freeze.

But, for Labour, it was all about what was not in the Budget - namely the lack of any mention of investment in the NHS or other major public services.

That omission feeds neatly into the narrative that Prime Minister David Cameron is avoiding debate on the big issues ahead of the election - quite literally in some cases.

Mr Miliband also attacked the Chancellor on his idea that the growth in the economy was part of a national recovery, pointing out that there are more people with zero-hour contracts than the populations of Leeds, Glasgow and Cardiff combined.

This claim feeds into Labour's other major argument - that the government simply cannot be trusted to tell the truth having broken its promises on clearing the deficit and reducing immigration.

Labour's big problem on this front, however, is that polls show Mr Miliband and his Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls are themselves still not as trusted on the big issue of the economy as Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne.

Consequently, it can be summed up that we have an unpopular government and a still untrusted opposition. No wonder there is stalemate in the polls.

Of course, stalemate skewers the debate in that it allows both main parties to cherry-pick the most favourable statistics backing up their cause.

Conservatives will point towards the national polls and various election prediction websites which predict they will have the most seats.

And, against that, Labour will understandably make a great deal of Lord Ashcroft's latest poll of the vital marginal seats which shows them making several comfortable gains.

However, any Labour progress looks certain to be undermined by big losses in their former heartland north of the border to the Scottish Nationalists.

Indeed, just this week Mr Miliband was forced to rule out the prospect of a formal coalition between Labour and the SNP.

Still, despite plentiful bluster over the Budget from both the Conservatives and Labour, neither looks any closer to securing a majority.

Instead, the election has already turned into a debate over which main party can hold the greater mandate by having more votes and/or seats.

With the Lib Dems still collapsing and increased support of UKIP and the Greens likely far too thinly spread, a minority government looks like being the likeliest outcome.

Ultimately then, there was not enough in this Budget to make it a game-changer - and so, after 7 May, the SNP could yet still hold considerable influence even in a confidence and supply arrangement.

As such, the next weeks - and the few weeks after that - could be a very bumpy ride indeed. Strap yourselves in.

2015 BUDGET DETAILS AT-A-GLANCE
State of the economy
*OBR confirms 2.6% growth in 2014, and forecasts growth will be 2.5% in 2015, 2.3% in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and 2.4% in 2019.
*National debt will fall from 80.4% of GDP to 80.2% in 2015-16, 79.8% in 2016-17, 77.8% in 2017-18, 74.8% in 2018-19 and 71.6% in 2019-20 - due to a sale of bank shares (£9bn Lloyds shares to be sold) and reduction in interest payments
*Borrowing in 2014-15 will be £90bn, falling to £75.3bn in 2015-16, £39.4bn in 2016-17, and £12.8bn in 2017-18. There is forecast to be a £5.2bn surplus in 2018-19 and £7bn in 2019-20 (cf. £23bn figure in the autumn statement).
*OBR forecast for inflation in 2015 is 0.2%.

Cuts in the next Parliament (£30bn to be saved by 2017-18)
*£13bn from government departments
*£12bn from the welfare budget
*£5bn from tax avoidance/evasion.

Taxation
*Personal tax-free allowance rises from £10600 in 2015-16 to £10800 in 2016-17 and £11000 in 2017-18. Above-inflation increase in the higher rate.
*Abolition of requirement to complete annual self-assessment tax return, to be replaced by digital accounts
*Abolition of Class 2 NICs for self employed people altogether in next parliament
*New personal savings allowance of £1000 to take 95% of savers out of tax on investments altogether
*Abolition of employers' NI for employing under-21s and, from next April, for employing apprentices
*Rate of new transferable married couples' allowance to be increased to £1100
*Corporation tax set at 20%
*Regional devolution: Manchester and Cambridge allowed to keep 100% of additional growth in business rates
*Small business rate relief extended until March 2016
*Bank levy raised to 0.21%, raising an additional £900m per year
*Charities will be able to claim automatic Gift Aid on first £8,000 of small donations, up from £5,000
*Petroleum Revenue Tax cut from 50% to 35% to help North Sea Oil industry

Levies
*Alcohol: Cut for the third year in a row with another penny off a pint, Scotch whisky and cider duty cut by 2%, wine duty frozen
*Cigarettes: No changes to those already announced
*Fuel: Increase scheduled for September cancelled

Investment
*£25m fund to help veterans, including nuclear test veterans
*Church repair fund trebled
*New investment for London transport projects
*£7bn transport investment for the south west region

Miscellaneous
*Design of a new 12-sided £1 coin to be released in 2017
*New help-to-buy ISA for first-time buyers
*Osborne cuts the maximum size of large pension pots from £1.25m to £1m
*Toll rates reduced for Severn Crossing from 2018

Earlier Budget reports from Mr Osborne 2011 2012 2013 2014

Budget 2014: Osborne appeals to the Tory core

CHANCELLOR George Osborne produced a Budget aimed at attracting some of the straying core Conservative vote back from UKIP ahead of next year's general election.

Osborne described his fifth Budget as being one for "the makers, the doers and the savers" as he announced an end to tax restrictions on pensioners' access to their pension pots.

In practical terms, this means that pensioners will no longer be required to purchase an annuity, instead gaining the opportunity to a big chunk of their savings pot to spend early in their retirement.

They will have to pay income tax on that - but the taxable part of a pension pot taken as cash on retirement will be charged at normal income tax rate, usually 20%, down massively from 55%.

The policy is, however, not without concern as it opens up the possibility of pensioners frittering away their hard-earned gains, leaving themselves poorer in their final few years.

Alternatively, the argument favoured by Mr Osborne is that pensioners can be - and should be - trusted to look after their own money, and that this liberal reform of the pensions system allows them much more control of their own affairs.

For savers frustrated by low interest rates, Osborne has introduced a new tax-free ISA from 1 July which will allow investors to put in up to £15,000-a-year in either cash or shares.

Of course, having £15,000 spare is not exactly commonplace for most of us.

Nevertheless, the other big Budget measure was more helpful to the wider working population with the decision to increase the personal allowance to £10,500 from 2015.

At the beginning of the Parliament, the allowance stood at just £6,475 so there has been an increase of £4,025 in five years, something worth £805 to a 20% taxpayer.

This has been a flagship policy of the Liberal Democrats - and, while the Conservatives have attempted to take some credit for it, the Lib Dems can point towards the fact they have campaigned for this long before they were in government.

Anyway, with the increased allowance now having been implemented, Nick Clegg's beleaguered junior coalition partners at least have one genuine thing to shout about when canvassing the doorsteps. It is just about the only thing, though.

In other matters altogether, this was another decent Budget for drivers and drinkers, and there was an added bonus for bingo players.

Osborne confirmed that the planned rise in fuel duty in September had again been scrapped.

Meanwhile duty on spirits and ordinary cider was frozen. Beer duty was even cut by a penny to the obvious delight of CAMRA chief executive Mike Benner.

Mr Benner said: "CAMRA is delighted to see the Chancellor implementing an unprecedented second consecutive cut of 1p in beer duty.

"This is not only about keeping the price of a pint affordable in British pubs but helping an industry which has been in overall decline continue on its long road to recovery.

"No doubt many of our 160,000 members will be raising a glass to the Chancellor this evening to toast another brilliant Budget for British beer drinkers."

Never mind that - bingo players will be raising their dabber pens after a surprise announcement that taxes in bingo halls are to be halved, from 20% to 10%.

Yet even this fairly innocuous Budget element has rather backfired following a ludicrous online poster (pictured above), tweeted by Conservative party chairman Grant Shapps.

The text, which reads "Cutting the bingo tax and beer duty to help hardworking people do more of the things they enjoy", frankly defies belief.

Lib Dem Treasury minister Danny Alexander was so stunned, he thought the poster was initially a spoof, adding it was "rather patronising" and "demeans some sensible things in the Budget".

It was not all good news for the gambling industry, though - duty on fixed-odds betting terminals increased to 25%.

Finally, among the main duties, tobacco will rise by 2% above inflation and this escalator will be extended beyond the next general election.

Just quite whether Mr Osborne will still be Chancellor after 2015 will be decided at the ballot box - but there are some signs, at last, of an economic recovery.

Growth has been revised upwards to 2.7% this year and 2.3% next year, then by 2.6% in 2016 and 2017.

Meanwhile, government borrowing is set to fall year-on-year until 2018-19 when there is expected to be a first Budget surplus since 2001.

That is still half a Parliament longer than originally planned and, consequently, Mr Osborne has set a cap on the welfare budget at £119bn for 2015-16.

The restriction includes child benefit, incapacity benefit, winter fuel payment and income support - but does not include the state pension or Jobseeker's Allowance.

Labour has said it will NOT oppose the cap when it is voted on in Parliament next week, but leader Ed Miliband still condemned the coalition for running an "economy of the privileged, by the privileged, for the privileged".

It has not really been Labour, though, which Mr Osborne has thought about when compiling this Budget.

Instead, the looming prospect of UKIP damaging the Tories' chances of being re-elected has been tackled head on.

Nigel Farage's party will surely still do well at the European elections in May, its euroscepticism being its best-known and arguably most potent policy.

But when it comes to who runs the country in just over a year's time, it might be a different matter altogether.

Those ageing, straying true blue Tories may well realise the futility of a UKIP vote in their constituency so that they drift back to their natural home.

And for those of a certain age still making up their minds, Mr Osborne's pensions overhaul could well be the deciding factor.

Budget 2013: Osborne still yet to get Britain going

CHANCELLOR George Osborne conceded growth in the British economy will be just 0.6% this year in his fourth Budget speech to the House of Commons today.

In a rowdy chamber, Mr Osborne said: "I'm going to level with people about the difficult decisions we still face. It is taking longer than anyone hoped."

That indeed it is, with anticipated debt levels expected still to be rising as the country heads to the next general election in 2015.

Nevertheless, chinks of light have emerged from this Budget for both individuals and businesses due to several measures being brought in.

The personal tax allowance will increase to £10,000 from the start of the next tax year, one year earlier than planned in the coalition agreement.

That move, in particular, will please the Liberal Democrats who promised as much in their manifesto before the last election.

Meanwhile, for motorists, the planned September fuel duty rise has been cancelled altogether.

For drinkers, too, the beer duty escalator - which previously increased the cost of a pint 3p above inflation - has been scrapped.

Indeed, Mr Osborne went one further on this issue, cutting beer duty by 1p from Sunday night. Other alcohol levies remain as previously announced but this was the best news for the drinks industry for a long time.

The Campaign for Real Ale was certainly pleased. Chief executive Mike Benner said: "This is a momentous day for Britain's beer drinkers, who will tonight be raising a glass to the Chancellor for axing this damaging tax escalator and helping keep pub-going affordable for hard-pressed consumers."

But it was not just the publicans and brewers who will benefit from this Budget.

The Chancellor announced a further corporation tax cut to 20%, and small businesses will be hugely helped by a £2,000 cut in the bill from employers' National Insurance contributions.

Meanwhile, the housing industry will be hugely encouraged by Government move to offer "mortgage guarantees" totalling £130bn.

In the scheme, prospective buyers would contribute 5% of the value of the property and the Government will guarantee another 15%. This, in effect, will mean people can afford a bigger mortgage with a small deposit.

There was absolutely nothing, however, in Mr Osborne's 53-minute speech to get the banks to lend more.

And the aforementioned lack of growth and increased levels of debt left Labour leader Ed Miliband with an easy line of attack - that nothing had changed since the coalition had come to power.

"Three years on, what does he say? Exactly what he said three years ago" was Mr Miliband's opening gambit. 
 
He added: "We still need four more years of pain, tax rises and spending cuts. In other words, after all the misery, all the harsh medicine, all the suffering by the British people, three years, no progress, deal broken."

The Leader of the Opposition also reminded the public of the cut in the highest rate of income tax from 50% to 45%, speculating in pantomime fashion just how many of the Cabinet would benefit.

Earlier at Prime Minister Questions, though, David Cameron had correctly stated that the rate is still higher than it was at any time during 13 years of Labour government.

And, one of the biggest problems with the current Labour set-up is their refusal to set out their own alternative detailed plan for the economy. 

Consequently, Mr Miliband was left taking pot-shots about Mr Osborne being roundly booed at the Paralympic Games last summer.

But, while the Chancellor may be considered a bit of a figure of fun after last year's disastrous omnishambles Budget, he made sure to make no such mistake this time around.

Indeed, the Conservatives could get a short-term boost from today's announcements on fuel duty, the removal of the beer escalator, and help for house-buyers. It was certainly all good politics.

However, Mr Osborne is still yet to find the answer to Britain's lack of growth - and the feeling is that today's measures, though welcome, are not fundamental enough to change the overall picture.

More worrying for the Chancellor himself is that time is beginning to run out to get Britain moving. He will need no reminder that there are now just over two years until the next election.


2013 BUDGET DETAILS
Growth forecasts/Fiscal policy
*Growth will be just 0.6% in 2013. It is expected to be 1.8% in 2014, 2.3% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016, and 2.8% in 2017.
*Debt will be 75.9% of GDP in 2013, 79.2% in 2014, 82.6% in 2015, 85.1% in 2016, 85.6% in 2017, eventually starting to fall in 84.8% in 2018.
*Deficit will fall from 7.4% of GDP in 2013, and 6.8% in 2014.
*Borrowing in 2013 will be £114bn, falling to £108bn in 2014, £97bn in 2015, £87bn in 2016, £61bn in 2017, and £42bn in 2018.
*Inflation target remain unchanged at 2%.
*OBR expects 600,000 more jobs in 2013.

Taxation/Benefits
*Personal tax-free allowance to £9,440 for 2013-14, and £10,000 for 2014-15.
*£2,000 cut from employers' National Insurance contributions
*Corporation tax rate will be 21% in 2014, and 20% in 2015. As previously, banks will get no benefit from corporation tax rate due to bank levy being increased to 0.142%.
*New tax relief to encourage private investment in social enterprises.

Levies
*Alcohol: Beer duty escalator scrapped, and beer duty cut by 1p. Other alcohol duties remain unchanged.
*Fuel: Planned September increase cancelled altogether.

Investment
*School and health budgets remain ring-fenced
*Extra £3bn a year for infrastructure from 2015-16
*Help-to-buy scheme providing £3.5bn over three years for shared equity loans worth up to 20% of a new-build home for those looking to move up housing ladder. £130bn of guarantees for low deposit mortgages.
*Govt to seek £11.5bn of current savings in the Spending Review in June
*Public sector pay increases limited to 1% in 2015-16, except for service personnel
*LIBOR banking fines used to help combat stress in ex-military personnel
*Govt accepts Lord Heseltine's proposal of a single competitive fund for local enterprise
*Working families to receive up to £1,200 per child for childcare.
*Help for Equitable Life policy holders who bought annuities before 1992
*Social care costs for the elderly to be capped at £72,000 from 2016

Cameron offers a way out of Europe

BRITAIN could hold an in-out referendum on whether to stay in the European Union under re-negotiated terms after the next general election, Prime Minister David Cameron announced this week.

In a long-awaited landmark speech, Mr Cameron set out the proposals for a nationwide vote to be held by the end of 2017 so long as he is returned as PM.

Mr Cameron said he would seek a return of certain powers from Brussels to Westminster before campaigning to stay in the EU on the new terms.

Ultimately, though, he confirmed that the choice would be made by the public. "It is time for the British people to have their say," he said.

"It is time to settle this European question in British politics. I say to the British people: this will be your decision."

Unsurprisingly, the news was welcomed by most Eurosceptics who have long campaigned for a vote, but UKIP leader Nigel Farage said he would have only been satisfied by an immediate referendum.

Nevertheless, it must be said that Mr Cameron has made a clever move politically, and it is one which has almost certainly put Labour and UKIP on the back foot.

Even LabourList editor Mark Ferguson has conceded that Ed Miliband's hasty response in ruling out a referendum could mean that he and his party are perceived as "the status quo-endorsing, Europhile democracy haters".

Meanwhile, the UK Polling Report blog has recalled the popularity boost which Mr Cameron received in December 2011 when he used his veto over proposed treaty changes.

There are some cautionary words on the same site, however. Europe is not actually an issue which is particularly salient with the public, ranking behind other topics such as "the economy, pensions, crime, health and so on".

Also, the fact that, on the very next day, the Chancellor George Osborne announced his spending cuts would have to continue, coincidentally, until 2017 will not give the Tory vote much chance to bounce.

Indeed, the struggling economy means there remains a fair chance that Mr Cameron may only be a one-term Prime Minister, unable to follow through on his promise.

Even if he is re-elected, it is not clear exactly what settlement he would be able to secure as both France and Germany have warned Britain that it simply cannot "cherry pick" its EU membership.

But, despite these difficulties, it was no surprise to see Mr Cameron face this challenge head-on.

The issue of Europe has haunted the Conservatives for decades, so much so it effectively brought down the curtain on the premierships of Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

During the Cameron ministry too, it has lingered in the background like a bad smell and the rift has continued. For now, though, both sides seem to have been placated.

Eurosceptic Tories will be pleased that they finally have a goal to aim for, and that the UKIP vote against them should be blunted.

Meanwhile, BBC political editor Nick Robinson notes that pro-Europeans "were relieved by the pragmatic tone of much of the rhetoric".

That rift in the Conservative party remains, though - and it cannot be underestimated just how big a political risk Mr Cameron has taken with his promise to hold a referendum. Certainly, Mr Cameron will have to hope history does not repeat itself.

For, when Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson held a similar vote in 1975, the fall-out caused a schism in the party which would eventually leave it in the electoral wilderness for years. 

Defeat to the Conservatives in 1979 sent Labour lurching further to the Left, and this caused centrist pro-European members to set up the Social Democratic Party, which would subsequently merge with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats.

Of course, it is highly unlikely anything as dramatic as that will happen to the Conservatives, especially while they remain in power.

However, it could still be the case that Mr Cameron will be forced again to take on the Eurosceptics in his own party, depending of course on how successful the election and his negotiations are.

Finally, it must be said that the views of the British public on EU membership are unpredictable, to say the least.

Back in that vote in 1975, voters overwhelmingly opted to stay in Europe by a margin of two to one. But who knows, though, what the outcome will be in 2017 if we do indeed get the chance to vote?

Indeed, bearing in mind the anticipated one-eyed Eurosceptic stance from the likes of the Sun and its ilk, it will also be worth asking: just how informed will the decision actually be?

Halfway to hell?

COALITION partners David Cameron and Nick Clegg reaffirmed their belief in their historic agreement as the Government's fixed five-year term reached its midway point this week.

Conservative Prime Minister Mr Cameron said: "It is a Ronseal deal: it does what it says on the tin. We said we would come together, we said we would form a government, we said we would tackle these big problems. That is exactly what we have done."

Meanwhile, Mr Cameron's Liberal Democrat deputy Mr Clegg looked ahead to the next general election, adding: "Of course we can fight, as we will do, as two separate, independent parties.

"Of course we will set out different visions of the future. Of course we can start explaining that before the general election. But we will govern and provide this country with good government until the election is held in May 2015."

Yes, it looks as if this coalition government is going to last a full five-year term but what Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg will not say is that this is due to necessity, rather than choice.

Frankly, either party pulling out of the coalition would be the equivalent of pulling a gun on itself, considering their respective, weak positions.

The Conservatives have trailed Labour with every single polling company for more than half a year now, and the Tories have further been damaged by the emergence of UKIP as the new home of the protest vote.

Almost as a consequence of the rise of Nigel Farage's party, it seems, Mr Cameron's Conservatives have stepped further to the political right in their recent rhetoric.

The launch of what can only be described as a brazen propaganda campaign which demonises all benefits claimants will play well with misinformed members of the public.

And, as the Independent newspaper pointed out this week, there are plenty of people who fall into that category, unfortunately.

The Guardian went even further, mounting a counter-offensive by pointing out the 1% cap on benefits will actually have most effect on the likes of nurses, soldiers and teachers.

After all, several of the capped benefits - such as Maternity Allowance, Statutory Sick Pay, and tax credits - are paid to working people on a low wage.

And so, while the benefits cap will inevitably play well to the archetypal Daily Mail reader, for many of the affected workers in the political centre, the move will simply reinforce the toxic Tories' negative brand.

This could be important, as a loss of voters in the centre makes it even more difficult for the Conservatives to get a majority in 2015.

Indeed, as explained here on the UK Polling Report blog, the way the boundaries are set up means that they are already at a mathematical disadvantage, compared to Labour.

Furthermore, those boundaries are unlikely to be changed by the time of the next election following the coalition partners' fall-out over the Alternative Vote referendum and House of Lords reform.

However, the Lib Dems' opposition to the boundary changes is unlikely to reprieve them in the eyes of the public at large.

For, from voting through the rise in tuition fees in December 2010 to forcing through a 1% cap on benefits tonight, the Lib Dems will rightly be seen as patsies for the worst excesses of the Tories' agenda.

Already subject to some humiliating by-election results, it is not yet quite clear exactly what the extent of the damage will be when the country goes to the polls as a whole.

But it seems unthinkable now that the Lib Dems will have time to turn around the way which the public perceives them.

It is therefore almost inevitable that the party will lose some of its 57 seats, a total which it has painstakingly built up over the last 20 years since the 1992 election.

Back then, under the leadership of Paddy Ashdown, the Lib Dems scored 17.8% of the vote but, due to the intricacies and indeed biases of the First Past the Post system, took only 20 seats.

Gradually, the party was able to build up a supporter base and become stronger in certain areas, which allowed it to pool its resources into more winnable seats.

Ultimately, their historically strong performance for a third party in British politics in 2010 left them in the position of kingmakers - but, equally, their choice of a coalition with the Conservatives may reduce their number of seats down to 1992 levels. It might even be worse.

Surely, then, the Government struggles must mean that Labour - as the only major HM Opposition party - must be odds-on to win an overall majority in 2015. Well, not quite, as it happens.

The problem for Labour is that the public's political consciousness not as short as the party would like it to be, and the Conservatives - despite their poor ratings generally - are still more trusted to deal with the economy.

Perhaps most damagingly, Labour leader Ed Miliband still trails Mr Cameron when it comes to the public's preference for Prime Minister, and he has rarely looked like shifting this perception.

Labour's mid-term poll lead will count for very little once the increasingly-personified general election campaign gets properly under way, if Mr Miliband's personal ratings remain so poor.

Indeed, the 2015 general election is pointing towards being yet another election in which no one wins.

Even going back as far as 2005, none of the main parties can claim to have had a particularly impressive general election result.

Of course, in 2005, Labour won a majority for the third consecutive time - but it did so on the back of just 35.2% of the popular vote, having nominally lost 47 seats against the backdrop of the unpopular Iraq war.

For the Conservatives, 2005 represented some progress compared to the wretchedness of 1997 and 2001. However, then-leader Michael Howard was still only able to attract 32.4% of the vote.

Finally, the Lib Dems could be best pleased with their 2005 result, winning many seats due to their opposition to the Iraq war - but their 62 MPs were still unable to do much to influence Parliament.

That all changed in 2010 of course - but, even amid the short-lived and ultimately fabled Clegg-mania, the Lib Dems could only manage 23% of the vote. In fact, their number of MPs actually fell by five.

For Labour, 2010 was an unmitigated disaster, as the party recorded its worst share of the vote - 29% - since 1983.

But, for the Conservatives too, the last general election was hugely disappointing with the party still unable to get an overall majority despite having been in opposition for 13 years.

Consequently, despite all the hullabaloo about the Alternative Vote system causing hung parliaments, there might be a second successive one under the First Past the Post method in 2015. 

Until then, no doubt, the coalition will stumble on, intermittently losing Cabinet ministers despite the Lib Dems bowing to most of the Conservatives' wishes. 

Sometimes, somewhat despairingly, it is easy to forget that this is only the halfway mark...

Galloway pulls off amazing Bradford West by-election win

Bradford West by-election result Respect GAIN from Labour

George Galloway Respect	18,341	55.9% (+52.8%)
Imran Hussein Labour	8,201	25.0% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley Conservatives	2,746	8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland Lib Dems	1,505	4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally UKIP	1,085	3.3% (+1.3%)
Dawud Islam Green	481	1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig Democratic Nationalists	344	1.0% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope Monster Raving Loony	111	0.3%

Total votes: 32,814 Turnout: 50.8% Majority: 10,140


GEORGE GALLOWAY scored a sensational triumph for Respect in the Bradford West by-election last night after thrashing Labour following a swing of almost 37%.

Mr Galloway won the seat with a thumping 56% of the vote, finishing well ahead of the Labour candidate Imran Hussein, who polled just 25%.

The Conservatives' Jackie Whiteley trailed in third after their vote collapsed to 8.4% - while their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, lost another by-election deposit in fourth.

The main news, though, surrounded Mr Galloway's extraordinary victory in what was previously a safe Labour seat.

Mr Galloway, who was himself a Labour MP in Glasgow between 1987 and 2003, called it the "most sensational result in British by-election history".

Certainly, it must be said that the drama overnight in West Yorkshire ranked alongside other huge political shocks in Orpington, Crosby, and Glasgow East.

Labour had held Bradford West since 1974, except for a short period between 1981 and 1983 when then-MP Edward Lyons defected to the newly-formed Social Democratic Party.

Even in Labour's disastrous 1983 general election result under Michael Foot, the party still managed to regain the seat from the SDP.

And that fact puts into some context exactly how embarrassing this result actually is for Opposition leader Ed Miliband.

It was not meant to be this way, of course - and certainly not expected to be this way.

Labour was odds-on to win this by-election after pulling ahead into double-digit leads in the national polls following perhaps the roughest week yet for the coalition.

The government's troubles began last Wednesday when George Osborne announced in his third Budget that he was freezing age-related allowances while cutting the highest rate of tax from 50p to 45p.

Almost immediately, Mr Osborne's move became dubbed the "granny tax" and he could not even rely on support from traditionally Tory newspapers.

The Sun claimed that the Chancellor had "clobbered the masses of hard-grafting Brits in a budget that boosted super-earners" while the Daily Telegraph printed "granny tax" in its massive front-page headline.

Perhaps the worst news, though, came from the Daily Mail - "Osborne picks the pockets of pensioners" was its verdict - and it was no surprise to see Conservative support among the over-60s drop in polls after that barrage of headlines.

The perception that the Conservative party is only there to benefit the rich was given further credence when Prime Minister David Cameron then got caught up in a cash-for-access scandal.

Co-treasurer Peter Cruddas resigned from his post in the party after secret filming by the Sunday Times showed him offering access to the PM for a donation of £250,000 a year.

And, subsequently, Mr Cameron was forced into publishing the names of all the donors who had dined with him privately in Downing Street.

The PM soon got himself in more bother when another element of taxation in the Budget, the seemingly innocuous imposition of VAT on hot pasties, reared its ugly head.

Asked when he had last eaten a pasty himself, Mr Cameron recalled: "I think the last one I bought was from the West Cornwall Pasty Company.

"I seem to remember I was in Leeds station at the time and the choice was whether to have one of their small ones or large ones, and I have a feeling I opted for the large one and very good it was too."

The only problem with this anecdote was that the West Cornwall Pasty Company had shut its store in Leeds station... five years ago.

Finally, just to prove that bad thing do not necessarily come in just three doses, a Minister went distinctly off-message, sparking a mass fuel panic which is still an ongoing concern.

Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude probably thought he was being helpful when he suggested that motorists fill jerry cans with petrol and store them in the garage following the Unite union's vote among hauliers to strike. 

Instead, Mr Maude's words have had the inevitable effect of drivers bleeding service stations dry amid record prices, despite the fact that there was no sign of actual strike action on the horizon. 

Unite would have to give seven days' notice of any withdrawal of labour and the union has now confirmed it will continue with its negotiations over the Easter weekend. 

Nevertheless, the Daily Mail brilliantly summed up the situation with its headline this morning: "Pandemonium at the pumps".

All in all, then, a pretty terrible 10 days for the government. But, with a by-election defeat like this, Labour shows no signs of providing effective opposition under Mr Miliband.

Labourlist, a blog which is independent from the central party, wrote in its live report that the result was a "very, very bad one".

Meanwhile, a follower was rather more cutting in their comment below the line. Jon wrote: "You're up against one of the most calamitous governments of recent times in the longest recession since the Great Depression and you've literally been beaten by a man who likes dressing up as a cat."

For readers unsure of the cat reference, Jon was recalling Mr Galloway's infamous appearance on Celebrity Big Brother in 2006 while he was MP for Bethnal Green and Bow.

In one of the tasks, the Scot pretended to be a cat and licked milk from the cupped hands of fellow contestant, actress Rula Lenska.

Unsurprisingly, Mr Galloway's actions brought him much mockery from the wider public and there were even suggestions that, as a sitting MP, he had brought Parliament into disrepute.

It is a sign, then, of just how bad the options are from the three main parties that the people of Bradford have instead put their trust into the egotistical Respect candidate.

As the member for Bethnal Green and Bow, Mr Galloway had one of the worst attendance rates in the House of Commons, turning up for only one in 20 votes.

And, despite words to the contrary in his victory speech, it is hard to see him being in Bradford for the long run.

If he does cut his losses somewhere down the line, it would be another blow to a West Yorkshire city which is in dire need of some help.

Recently subject to the two-part Channel 4 documentary, Make Bradford British, the area for years has been held up as an example of the failure of different cultural groups to integrate.

And the city took another blow when a report by the Local Data Company claimed that it was the "riskiest city in the UK to invest in retailing" due to its high number of vacant units and charity shops.

Worse still, the public cannot even find respite in following the two main sports teams.

Bradford City FC are sixth-bottom in League Two, and only four points off relegation out of the Football League altogether, having previously played in the Premier League between 1999 and 2001.

Most recently, a mass brawl at the end of their home defeat to Crawley saw five players red-carded, including three from Bradford, with the subsequent FA charge almost sure to result in a substantial fine.

Meanwhile, Bradford Bulls, the rugby league team - again powerhouses at the turn of the millennium - revealed this week that they need £1m just to stay in business.

And so, in light of all of this, it can only be hoped that Mr Galloway is an effective MP and that he did not just win this election to bloody the noses of some former Labour colleagues.

For Mr Miliband, the current poll leads will mean very little this morning. Instead, the results of the May elections now become hugely significant for his chances of survival.

Budget 2012: Osborne's massive "granny tax" gamble

CHANCELLOR George Osborne will abolish age-related allowances from April 2013 to help pay for a cut in the highest rate of income tax from 50% to 45%.

Mr Osborne defended the decision, stating it was part of a wider policy of simplifying tax, but the undeniable truth is that millions of older folk will lose out over the next few years.

The age-related allowances in the coming tax year are £10,500 for pensioners aged between 65 and 74, and £10,660 for people older than 75.
 
But those amounts will be frozen from April 2013 for those who are within those age brackets until the standard personal allowance catches up. Meanwhile, anyone who becomes 65 after April 2013 will only get the standard allowance of £9205. 

This means a person turning 65 in the coming tax year will receive an annual allowance of £10,500 but a person turning 65 after April 2013 will only get the £9205 amount. 

Now, of course, Mr Osborne will receive credit for raising the main personal allowance to the £9205 mark in line with the policy of his party's coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats.

However, his decision to freeze the age-related allowances for pensioners to pay for a cut to the higher rate tax band is a bold political gamble.

In the Commons, Mr Osborne defended the move to scrap the 50p rate, stating a report by HM Revenue & Customs confirmed it had damaged the UK's competitiveness.

The Chancellor added that the rate had "caused massive distortions" and "raised next to nothing", and he stated that those taxpayers would pay "five times more" to the exchequer due to changes to stamp duty levies and a new cap on tax relief.

"No chancellor can justify a tax rate that damages our economy and raises next to nothing," said Mr Osborne.

Nevertheless, as BBC's Nick Robinson pointed out, the policies set out in the Budget still mean that a higher-rate taxpayer who does not buy any property or use any tax relief will still gain significantly at the expense of a pensioner in April 2013.

Labour leader Ed Miliband was quick to pick up on this fact, labelling Mr Osborne's plans a "millionaire's Budget which squeezes the middle".

Mr Miliband added: "After today's Budget, millions will be paying more, while millionaires will be paying less."

But, while the latter part of that statement may or may not be true - it is hard to tell at this point - it is certainly the case that Mr Osborne is testing the loyalty of some of the Conservative party's supporter base.

Labour is back in the lead in most polls but the Tories retain a plurality of support among the over 65s in almost all cases.

Mr Osborne and Prime Minister David Cameron also hold a lead, by 32% to 26%, over Mr Miliband and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls in terms of being trusted with the economy.

However, both of these positions will soon disappear if Mr Osborne's decision to freeze age-related allowances becomes seen as akin to Labour's shocking removal of the 10% starting rate in 2007.

That dreadful move cost Gordon Brown much support for his claim to economic competence, even before the financial crisis hit a year later.

And so - regardless of the justification for their lowering of the 50% tax rate - the separate issue of the removal of pensioners' allowances means the coalition may have just committed their own fatal income tax error.

 Meanwhile, in other moves in his third Budget, Mr Osborne...
- Forecast growth to be 0.8% in 2012 and 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% in the two years after that. (Note: While the 2012 figures are improved from the news in his Autumn Statement when Mr Osborne had announced growth for 2012 would be just 0.7%, they compare unfavourably with the forecast of 2.5% made 12 months ago. Mr Miliband suggested the figures were proof that the Government's plan had failed).

- Cut the rate of corporation tax by 2% to 24%, adding it would further reduce to 22% by 2014.

- Promised to address loopholes in the VAT system while retaining the usual exemptions on food, clothes, books and newspapers.

- Tweaked the coalition's policy on Child Benefit so that its removal from higher rate taxpayers is tapered. (Note: despite this, the inherent unfairness of the policy remains: a couple both earning £40,000 will not lose any Child Benefit but a household in which only one partner earns over £50,000 will lose out).

- Announced that the planned 3p rise in fuel duty in August would go-ahead, and that vehicle excise duty will increase in line with inflation.

- Hit smokers the hardest in terms of duties with a 5% above-inflation rise on a packet of cigarettes, the equivalent of 37p on a packet. There was no change to alcohol duties but a new duty was introduced on gaming machines.


2012 BUDGET DETAILS
Growth forecasts/Fiscal policy
*Growth will be 0.8% in 2012, and 2% in 2013.
*Borrowing in 2012 will be £126bn, falling to £120bn in 2013, £98bn in 2014, eventually to £21bn in 2017. Government saving £36bn in debt interest.
*Independent OBR expects inflation in 2012 to be 2.8%, falling in 2013 to 1.9%.
*OBR forecasts unemployment to peak this year at 8.7% before falling each year to 6.3% in five years.

Taxation/State Pension/Child Benefit
*Abolition of age-related personal allowances for over-65s, as from April 2013.
*Highest rate of income tax will be 45% from April 2013, stays at 50% for 2012-3 - as HMRC report proves it damages the UK's competitiveness, and "caused massive distortions".
*Personal tax-free allowance to £8105 for 2012-13 to £9205 from April 2013.
*Consultation on tax/NI simplification to be published next month.
*From 2014, 20m people to receive new personal tax statement, detailing what they are paying and what they are paying for.
*Corporation tax rate cut by 2% to 24%; will be 22% by 2014. Banks continue to get no benefit from corporation tax rate due to bank levy being increased to 0.105%, raising £2.5bn per year.
*Loopholes in VAT system to be addressed but exemptions to stay on food, clothes, and books.
*Increase on stamp duty to 7% on homes worth more than £2m (or 15% on residential properties of more than £2m bought by a company).
*New cap on tax relief set at 25% of total income for anyone claiming more than £50,000 in a year, but no significant change to pensions relief.
*State Pension to rise by £5.30 per week. Single tier pension to be set around £140 and based upon future contributions for future pensioners. Automatic review of state pension age.
*Child benefit only withdrawn from higher rate taxpayers if someone in household has income of more than £50,000 - gradual withdrawal of 1% for every £100 above £50,000.

Levies
*Alcohol: No further changes.
*Cigarettes: 5% rise above inflation, equivalent of 37p extra duty on a packet of cigarettes.
*Fuel: No further changes. Above-inflation rises will only return if price of oil falls below £45 a barrel.
*Vehicle excise: Increased in line with inflation - but frozen for road hauliers.
*Gambling: New duty on gaming machines at a standard rate of 20% and a lower rate for low-prize machines of 5% of net takings.

Investment
*Increased private investment in roads.
*Network Rail to upgrade Trans-Pennine rail route between Manchester and Sheffield; improvement to the lines between Manchester and Preston, and Manchester and Blackpool.
*24 enterprise zones now operating, new enterprise zone in Deeside, Wales. Enhanced capital allowances for businesses setting up in new Scottish enterprise zones (Dundee, Irvine, Nigg).
*Spending on Afghanistan £2.4bn lower than planned. Extra £100m for military housing, 100% council tax relief for armed forces overseas, family welfare grant for armed fores doubled.
*£3bn tax allowances for oil exploration in Shetlands.
*Tax credit for television, video games and animation industries.
*£100m support for new university science research facilities.
*£70m fund for new jobs and businesses in London.
*£150m to help local councils promote development.
*Funding for superfast broadband and wi-fi in the UK's 10 largest cities with £50m available for smaller cities.

Miscellaneous
*Royal Mail pension fund assets switched to Treasury control.
*Sunday trading laws relaxed for eight weeks commencing on 22 July.