Merry Christmas, Mrs May

(Q)	Do you have confidence in Theresa May  as the leader of the Conservative party?
YES	200 (63.1%)
NO	117 (36.9%)

THERESA MAY survived her latest tumultuous week as Prime Minister after winning a confidence vote which had been brought against her by a group of rebel Conservative MPs.

Mrs May prevailed by 200 votes to 117 for an unconvincing majority of 83.

But, following a week in which the Tory divisions over Brexit were brutally exposed, the PM returned to the negotiating table in Brussels in an unequivocally weaker position.

For a start, Mrs May effectively only seems to have remained in her job because of a promise to her MPs that she will step down from the role ahead of any General Election.

Even on this, though, she has rapidly been forced to make a significant concession this week having originally said she would only not contest a vote as far off as 2022.

That left many Conservatives fearing that Mrs May would still be in place to lead the party if an earlier campaign came around.

After all, her reputation among many Tories has never recovered since she called a "snap" election in 2017, and the party unexpectedly lost its majority in the House of Commons.

Ever since then indeed, she appears to have been on borrowed time, relying on a confidence-and-supply arrangement with nine Democratic Unionists to pass legislation.

Now, though, the unresolved issue of what to do with the Irish border means Arlene Foster's hardline unionists are no longer a reliable source of support.

Instead, on some of the most important votes, the DUP MPs have allied themselves with a core of Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers led by cartoonish relic Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Already, the influence of this alliance in Westminster proceedings has been quite momentous.

On a chastening night last week, the group voted with other opposition parties to create history as Mrs May's Government became the first administration in history to be found in Contempt of Parliament.

The problem there was that the Government had only provided an outline of the legal basis for its Brexit deal whereas Parliament had previously voted to be given the full advice.

Subsequently, the full advice was published ahead of an expectation this week that a so-called "meaningful vote" would be held on whether to approve Mrs May's deal.

All through last weekend, the PM and her ministers were adamant that the vote in the Commons would go ahead - but, as time wore on, it became ever more obvious that the Government was going to be defeated again, and perhaps heavily defeated.

Consequently, on the eve of the division, Mrs May called the whole thing off and admitted outright to the Commons that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority as it stood.

For many in the Conservative party, it was one show of weakness too many from the Prime Minister and a backbench-led confidence vote became as inevitable an event as Mrs May's failure in the Commons would have been.

The short-term difference was that the Prime Minister knew she could win a confidence vote - and she did, something which in itself has the important effect of providing her with immunity from another such challenge for a full 12 months.

At the same time, though, European leaders appear unwilling to budge from the deal on the table - and so, the situation has now reached a seemingly insoluble stalemate.

In a bizarre way, though, this can help to predict where this goes from here.

Mrs May's deal appears dead in the water while the Irish and/or the EU will not negotiate any further over the backstop so the number of possible outcomes has been automatically limited.

It would seem then either Britain will fall out of the EU on 29 March next year without any sort of deal, or the political gridlock will be acknowledged and a final decision will be thrown back to an exasperated public who mostly just want this all to be over.

Feasibly, of course, both could happen - and, surely, surely, there must be some way out of this mess.

Then again, the Joker once famously remarked exactly that to the Thief - and neither of them ended any further forward. 

⭐BREXIT: A TIMELINE⭐

⭐24 January 2013 Report
Then-Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, if the Conservatives won a majority at the 2015 General Election, the Government would hold a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the European Union (EU) following a series of renegotiations.

⭐30 March 2015
A General Election was called following the dissolution of the Parliament under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011.

⭐7 May 2015 Report
The General Election was held. David Cameron defied expectations of a Hung Parliament and led the Conservatives to their first outright majority since 1997.

⭐19 February 2016
David Cameron announced the outcome of the renegotiations. The renegotiated terms were in addition to existing opt-outs in the EU as well as the UK rebate - but critics argued there would be no fundamental change to the EU-UK relationship.

⭐20-21 February 2016 Report
David Cameron effectively fired the starting pistol on an in-out referendum by announcing it would be held on 23 June 2016. On the following morning, his long-time rival - the then-Mayor of London Boris Johnson - confirmed he would be backing the Vote Leave campaign

⭐23-24 June 2016
Britain voted 52-48 in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit). David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister on the following morning, triggering a Conservative leadership election.

⭐30 June 2016
Then-Justice Secretary Michael Gove confirmed his bid to become party leader, prompting Boris Johnson, the bookmakers' favourite, to announce he would not enter the leadership contest.

⭐13 July 2016 Report
Theresa May formally became Prime Minister having beaten Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove in the Conservative leadership contest. On the same day, George Osborne was sacked as Chancellor of Exchequer in a reshuffle, and replaced by Philip Hammond.

⭐3 November 2016
The Supreme Court ruled in the favour of Gina Miller who had campaigned for Brexit to be approved through Parliament.

⭐17 January 2017
Theresa May announced that Brexit would be subject to a "meaningful vote" in both Houses of Parliament.

⭐29 March 2017
Article 50 was formally invoked, starting a two-year countdown until Britain severs ties with the EU.

⭐18 April 2017
Theresa May - comfortably ahead in the polls - called a "snap" General Election.

⭐8 June 2017 Report
The General Election was held. The result showed the Conservatives remained the largest party but that they had lost their majority due to a Labour resurgence under Jeremy Corbyn.

⭐9 June 2017
Theresa May vowed to continue as PM and struck a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

⭐13 July 2017
David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, introduced a bill in the House of Commons which ensured Britain's withdrawal from the EU would be subject to a "meaningful vote".

⭐July 2017-November 2017
Negotiation phase 1: A series of talks in Brussels (17-20 July, 28-31 August, 7 September, 25 September, 9-12 October, 9-10 November) over Britain's withdrawal from the EU were held.

⭐4 December 2017
A draft agreement was expected to be finalised at a meeting between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. However, the meeting was abandoned after the DUP objected to arrangements for the Irish border

⭐December 2017-March 2018
Negotiation phase 2: transitional arrangements included an Irish backstop which was agreed in principle by Theresa May and EU chief negotiator Michael Barnier. The backstop potentially tied Northern Ireland to EU trade laws beyond Brexit.

⭐26 June 2018
The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.

⭐6 July 2018
Theresa May summoned her Cabinet to Chequers to shore up support for her Brexit agreement.

⭐8-9 July 2018
Brexit Secretary David Davis tendered his resignation, stating the deal - as it stood - was too soft. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also stepped down as he considered the deal had the potential to turn Britain "into a European colony". Dominic Raab was appointed as Brexit Secretary in a reshuffle.

⭐July-November 2018
Negotiation phase 3: Britain negotiated trade relations with EU after Brexit.

⭐15 November 2018
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, saying he “cannot in good conscience” support the deal agreed by the cabinet. He was joined by a spate of others including Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.

⭐16 November 2018
Stephen Barclay became the third Brexit Secretary of the year.

⭐4 December 2018
The Government lost three votes in the Commons and was found in contempt of Parliament. Consequently, the Government was forced to publish its full legal advice on Brexit.

⭐10 December 2018
Theresa May was forced to call off the "meaningful vote" in Parliament, admitting that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority for her deal in the Commons.

⭐12 December 2018 Report
At least 48 Tory MPs' letters were sent into Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. A vote of no confidence was called in Theresa May which she won with a majority of 83 (200-117).

The Brexit month of political May-hem

THERESA MAY has officially taken over as the 75th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on another extraordinary day of British politics in Westminster.

Mrs May entered Downing Street shortly after her predecessor David Cameron made his last appearance at the despatch box at Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons.

And the handover is quite appropriate, for this whole tumult was set in motion by Mr Cameron as long ago as January 2013.

It was back then that he vowed to hold a referendum on British membership of the European Union if the Conservatives got a majority in the General Election.

At the time, it was a political gamble aimed at keeping his backbenchers on side while stopping the drift of Tory voters towards UKIP.

But, when he made the announcement, a Conservative majority government actually did not look too likely.

Then, May 2015 happened.

Labour had collapsed to the Scottish Nationalists north of the border and the Liberal Democrats were utterly routed across the country generally, but particularly against the Conservatives in the south west.

Somehow, Mr Cameron had eked out a majority of 12 and so had to deliver on a promise which he did not think he would ever have to keep.

Unconvincing negotiations with fellow EU leaders followed - and, having played hardball and gained nothing but the most measly of compromises, Mr Cameron then awkwardly had to campaign to stay in.

Almost immediately, he unsurprisingly ran into trouble.

For, if it was not bad enough having the then-UKIP leader Nigel Farage leading the Leave campaign, the loss of support from his old friend Boris Johnson was perhaps an early blow from which the Remainers never recovered.

Mr Johnson, of course, had acted purely in self-interest, as proven by the overtures he had previously made towards the EU when he was London mayor.

But his overwhelming desire for job of Prime Minister outweighed everything else, and his ultimate personal failure - to which I will come - was stunning and oddly satisfying, given his hypocrisy.

Mr Johnson nevertheless played an important part for the Leave team, although both campaigns were surely among the most shoddily ever run by mainstream British politicians.

The Remain side - in a move labelled Project Fear by its opponents - seemed only to warn of the dire consequences of leaving the EU. None of its benefits was mentioned.

Meanwhile, the Leavers provided hardly any vision at all of what a post-Brexit Britain would look like - as would become apparent in the days ahead.

Indeed, much of the media coverage focused on what appeared to be a battle for the Conservative leadership between the incumbents Mr Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne on one side and Mr Johnson and Michael Gove on the other.

Ultimately, as predicted, most people were left thorough confused or just totally disenchanted with the debate, and so understandably went with their gut feeling on 23 June.

That gut feeling was to leave the EU.

The margin of victory for the Leavers - by 52% to 48% or approximately 1.3m votes - was not exactly huge but the fact that it happened at all made it a truly momentous event in the history of Britain.

Mr Cameron, swayed by weakness to promise a vote in the first place, had suddenly never been weaker.

So, unsurprisingly on the morning of 24 June, he felt he had no other option but to resign as a failure, offering to stay on until October in a caretaker capacity.

And it was at this point that the real power games began.

Slowly but surely, the candidates for the Conservative leadership lined themselves up with the contest expected to be between Mrs May, a Remain supporter, and Mr Johnson.

Naturally, Mr Johnson had backed on receiving the support of his Leave colleague Mr Gove.

But on 30 June, just three hours before the nominations closed, Mr Gove announced his own candidacy having come to the conclusion that Mr Johnson could not "provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead”.

The Telegraph described the move by Mr Gove as "the most spectacular political assassination in a generation" - and it was indeed a deliciously premature end to the Johnson campaign before the contest had even properly begun.

Historically, a streak of ruthlessness seems to have been admired by the Conservatives.

Witness the ascent and the downfall of Margaret Thatcher or, more recently, the removal of Iain Duncan-Smith as leader even before he could fight a General Election.

However, Mr Gove had even been too brutal for a Tory - and, after Dr Liam Fox had been eliminated and outsider Stephen Crabb had withdrawn following the first ballot on 5 July, he was soundly beaten in the second vote on 7 July.

Mrs May unsurprisingly finished top, with the backing of 199 MPs - but second place went to a largely previously unheralded Leave campaigner Andrea Leadsom.

Mrs Leadsom picked up 84 votes, against Mr Gove's 46 - and so ensured that, by September, Britain would have its second female Prime Minister.

Except it has all happened rather more quicker than that. Mrs Leadsom, like Icarus before her, has already burned her wings having flown too close to the sun in her rapid ascent.

Rather than The Sun, though, it was instead a problem with the Times - with whom she had given an interview (£) which was published on 9 July.

In the interview, Mrs Leadsom made the highly controversial statement that she would be better placed to lead the country because she has children, whereas Mrs May does not.

Under pressure, she hurriedly denied the claim and ordered the newspaper to publish the full transcript. But the transcript duly followed and did not contradict anything which had been printed.

Subsequently, Mrs Leadsom demanded the Times release the audio of the interview - if anything, though, this further weakened her case, given the emphasis which she placed on her point.

And so, after a weekend of scrutiny - or abuse, according to Mrs Leadsom - the MP for South Northamptonshire officially ended her campaign on Monday.

Mrs May was in the clear.

Of course, the new PM does not exactly take over from a position of strength.

It became evident within hours that some of the promises which the Leave campaigners had made in the run-up to the vote were - and there is no other way of putting this - a pack of lies.

Within hours of winning the referendum on 24 June, Mr Farage - who, in the meantime, has stepped down from his position as UKIP leader for the umpteenth time - denied £350m per week would now be spent on the National Health Service.

Then, the next day, Conservative MEP and Leave campaigner Daniel Hannan suggested that there would not be a "radical decline" in immigration - all far removed from Mr Farage's poster.

No wonder then that Mrs May has entrusted two of the other three Great Offices of State in her new government to fellow Remain supporters.

Key ally Philip Hammond is the new Chancellor, in place of the sacked Mr Osborne, while Amber Rudd fills Mrs May's former job of Home Secretary.

But Mr Johnson - yes, him again - does not get away with leaving his post-Brexit mess entirely to others.

Ludicrously, he is the new Foreign Secretary, a role in which his fine-tuned diplomatic skills should come to the fore.

Finally, it is not all bad news in the May cabinet for Leave supporters. The appointment of strong Leave campaigner David Davis as Secretary of State for Exiting the EU confirms there is no going back on this historic decision.

Having reached enough online signatories, the petition for a second EU referendum will be debated in Parliament after the recess on 5 September.

Under Mrs May, though, there will not be one - and nor should there be. The decision has been made, for better or worse - and only a true masochist would want a repeat of those two campaigns again.

Instead, the new PM will see her task as one of somehow steering Britain through some of the rockiest waters in its post-war existence.

At least, though, she will consider that she is able to do so without any significant effective opposition in the Commons.

For, as the Conservatives slowly untangle themselves, Labour continues to engage in a civil war so fierce that it almost feels inevitable the party will split.

But all that is for another day and a different blog altogether.
 
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP ELECTION

	Westminster seat	EU stance	First  ballot	Second  ballot	Members'  ballot
Theresa MAY	(Maidenhead)	Remain	165	199	unopposed
Andrea LEADSOM	(South Northamptionshire)	Leave	66	84	withdrew
Michael GOVE	(Surrey Heath)	Leave	48	46	-
Stephen CRABB	(Preseli Pembrokeshire)	Remain	34	withdrew	-
Dr Liam FOX	(North Somerset)	Leave	16	-	-

THERESA MAY'S CABINET

	Westminster seat	EU stance	Position
Theresa MAY	(Maidenhead)	Remain	Prime Minister
Philip HAMMOND	(Runnymede & Weybridge)	Remain	Chancellor of Exchequer
Boris JOHNSON	(Uxbridge & South Ruislip)	Leave	Foreign Secretary
Amber RUDD	(Hastings & Rye)	Remain	Home Secretary
Michael FALLON	(Sevenoaks)	Remain	Defence Secretary
David DAVIS	(Haltemprice & Howden)	Leave	Brexit Secretary
Dr Liam FOX	(North Somerset)	Leave	International Trade