Showing posts with label DUP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DUP. Show all posts

Thursday, 12 December 2019

Johnson's Conservatives crush Corbyn's Labour in General Election

GENERAL ELECTION 2019
Conservative majority of 80


SCOREBOARDSeatsDiffVotes%Diff%
Conservatives365(+48)43.6(+1.2)
Labour203(-60)32.1(-7.9)
Lib Dems11(-1)11.6(+4.2)
Scottish Nationals48(+13)3.9(+0.8)
Green Party1(-)2.7(+1.1)
Brexit Party-(-)2.0(+2.0)
Democratic Unionists8(-2)0.8(-0.1)
Plaid Cymru4(-)0.5(-)
Others10(+2)2.8
Turnout 67.3%

EXIT POLL CON 368 LAB 191 LD 13 OTH 78  • Conservative majority of 86

BORIS JOHNSON received a huge mandate for his promise to "get Brexit done" as the Conservatives crushed Labour in its heartlands in the north, the Midlands and Wales to gain a comfortable majority of 80.
 
On a catastrophic night for Jeremy Corbyn, the Tories took seats such as Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield, West Bromwich West, and Wrexham, all of which had been Labour-held since 1935.
 
Leigh - the former seat of Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Manchester - had been a Labour stalwart since 1922 but has now returned a Conservative MP.

It was a picture repeated all over the country throughout the night from early on when the Blyth Valley result came through just after 11.30pm.

The Sedgefield result - a constituency previously represented for 24 years by former Prime Minister Tony Blair - came in around four hours later.

Well before that, the exit poll at 10pm - giving a Conservative majority of 86 - had caused its usual stir and ultimately proved to be just about as accurate as it was in 2017 when Theresa May lost her majority.

This time, Labour lost by some ridiculous margins in supposedly solid seats and so was also defeated in many other places which had never previously come under consideration for the Tories.

Bassetlaw in Nottinghamshire provided the biggest successful swing of the night - 18% - as the Conservatives ended a history of Labour control which stretched back to 1929.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Derbyshire, 87-year-old Dennis Skinner lost Bolsover after representing the area for just short of half a century.

Indeed, it is perhaps difficult to quantify fully what a horror show this election was for Labour on Friday 13th. It really was the nightmare before Christmas for the party.

The unashamedly pro-Remain Liberal Democrats - who stood on a platform of revoking Article 50 - had a similarly poor night following a lacklustre campaign.

Their eventually tally of 11 seats was one fewer than last time as leader Jo Swinson lost her own Dunbartonshire East seat to the Scottish National Party.

Few tears around the country will have been shed for her on either side of the political divide.

The Scottish Nationalists have plenty to smile about, though. Having regressed somewhat in 2017, Nicola Sturgeon's party augmented their already dominant position north of the border.

It may well take another big win in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021 to transform their dream into reality - but, while Mr Johnson might not like to hear it, the question surrounding Scottish independence is certainly not going to disappear anytime soon.

At least this election has appears to have provided a solution to the Brexit quandary which has stalled the country since the vote to leave the European Union three-and-a-half years ago.

Still, though, Mr Johnson has been re-elected to a country which is in dire need of investment in its public services while Brexit finally gets sorted.

In fairness, the Tories have pledged to reverse some of the damaging cuts made during the post-2010 period of austerity in terms of nurses and police officers, even if they have been rather economical with the truth regarding the actual numbers.

And therein lies the problem, really. Mr Johnson has won this election in spite of his poor personal ratings, aided by the fact that Mr Corbyn's popularity was, of course, worse still.

On the question of trust, Mr Johnson rated woefully - which must surely come as no surprise to a man who has literally been sacked from top jobs for lying - twice.

But Mr Corbyn ultimately had more historical mud which stuck - and, having been an asset to his party when still relatively unknown at a national level in 2017, he was equally a liability for Labour this time.

Labour's vote went down all across the UK - in both strongly Remain and Leave seats - so, while this was a Brexit election, the party must come to accept that Brexit was not the only reason for its defeat.

A period of introspection now follows for the Opposition - might the party have done better with the same manifesto with someone more popular fronting the campaign?

Or if Labour risked replacing Mr Corbyn with a more centrist outlook, how much of its fanatical membership will the party lose - and how many votes might it win back?

Instinctively, it does not feel as if it is going to be pretty either way - and, in the last few years, Labour has given the impression that it specialises in mass infighting.

In any case, the next leadership election will merely provide a potentially messy sideshow to the early decisions of the Johnson government.

Finally, for now, a word on the media - specifically the BBC - which, by any standards, had a wretched campaign from the start.

After a dishevelled Mr Johnson made a mess of placing a red wreath at the Cenotaph, ahead of the silence on Remembrance Sunday, BBC Breakfast instead showed footage of him in much smarter dress placing a green wreath in 2016 when he was Foreign Secretary.

Then there was the rather more serious matter of the BBC editing a clip for its main bulletin to cut out the audience laughter at the Prime Minister during the party leaders' Question Time, after he was asked whether he believed it was important to tell the truth. The edited clip showed only applause.

Now, only the most ardent Corbynite would suggest that the poor editorial decisions of the BBC was truly the reason why the Conservatives have enjoyed so much success in this election at the expense of Labour.

But, in a world ravaged by fake news on social media and newspapers in the traditional media which stick rigidly to their own agenda, it would be difficult to suggest the BBC in any way provided a much better service.

Sky News is now widely available in the UK on Freeview, not just by subscription - and, out of the clutches of Rupert Murdoch, appears to provide a genuinely more balanced output. 

Certainly, it must be said the BBC cannot consider itself to be the almost untouchable national institution which it once was.


GENERAL ELECTION 2019
REGION-BY-REGION

NORTH EAST ENGLAND
Conservative
Berwick-upon-Tweed - Hexham - Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland | Gains: Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Darlington, North West Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield, Stockton South
Labour
Blaydon - City of Durham - North Durham - Easington - Gateshead - Hartlepool - Houghton & Sunderland South - Jarrow - Middlesbrough - Newcastle upon Tyne Central - Newcastle upon Tyne East - Newcastle upon Tyne North - South Shields - Stockton North - Sunderland Central - Tynemouth - North Tyneside - Wansbeck - Washington & Sunderland West

NORTH WEST ENGLAND
Conservative
Altrincham & Sale West - Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Bolton West - Carlisle - Cheadle - Congleton - Copeland - Eddisbury - Fylde - Hazel Grove - Macclesfield - Morecambe & Lunesdale - Pendle - Penrith & The Border - Ribble Valley - Rossendale & Darwen - South Ribble - Southport - Tatton - Wyre & Preston North | Gains: Barrow & Furness - Blackpool South, Bolton North East, Burnley, Bury North, Bury South, Crewe & Nantwich, Heywood & Middleton, Hyndburn, Leigh, Warrington South, Workington
Labour
Ashton Under Lyne - Birkenhead - Blackburn - Blackley & Broughton - Bolton South East - Bootle -  City of Chester - Denton & Reddish - Ellesmere Port & Neston - Garston & Halewood - Halton - Knowsley - Lancashire West - Lancaster & Fleetwood - Liverpool Riverside - Liverpool Walton - Liverpool Wavertree - Liverpool West Derby - Makerfield - Manchester Central - Manchester Gorton - Manchester Withington - Oldham East & Saddleworth - Oldham West & Royton - Preston - Rochdale - St Helens North - St Helens South & Whiston - Salford & Eccles - Sefton Central - Stalybridge & Hyde - Stockport - Stretford & Urmston - Wallasey - Warrington North - Weaver Vale - Wigan - Wirral South - Wirral West - Worsley & Eccles South - Wythenshawe & Sale East
Liberal Democrats
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Speaker
Chorley

YORKSHIRE & HUMBER
Conservative
Beverley & Holderness - Brigg & Goole - Calder Valley - Cleethorpes - Elmet & Rothwell - Haltemprice & Howden - Harrogate & Knaresborough - Morley & Outwood - Pudsey - Richmond - Scarborough & Whitby - Selby & Ainsty - Shipley - Skipton & Ripon - Thirsk & Malton - York Outer - East Yorkshire | Gains: Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Don Valley, Great Grimsby, Keighley, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Wakefield
Labour
Barnsley Central - Barnsley East - Batley & Spen - Bradford East - Bradford South - Bradford West - Doncaster Central - Doncaster North - Halifax - Hemsworth - Huddersfield - Kingston-upon-Hull East - Kingston-upon-Hull North - Kingston-upon-Hull West & Hessle - Leeds Central - Leeds East - Leeds North East - Leeds North West - Leeds West - Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - Rotherham - Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough - Sheffield Central - Sheffield Hallam - Sheffield Heeley - Sheffield South East - Wentworth & Dearne - York Central

EAST MIDLANDS
Conservative
Amber Valley - Boston & Skegness - Bosworth - Broxtowe - Charnwood - Corby - Daventry - Derbyshire Dales - Mid Derbyshire - North East Derbyshire - South Derbyshire - Erewash - Gainsborough - Grantham & Stamford - Harborough - Kettering - North West Leicestershire - South Leicestershire - Loughborough - Louth & Horncastle - Mansfield - Newark - Northampton North - Northampton South - South Northamptonshire - Rushcliffe - Rutland & Melton - Sherwood - Sleaford & North Hykeham - South Holland & The Deepings - Wellingborough | Gains: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Derby North, Gedling, High Peak, Lincoln
Labour
Chesterfield - Derby South - Leicester East - Leicester South - Leicester West - Nottingham East - Nottingham North - Nottingham South

WEST MIDLANDS
Conservative
Aldridge-Brownhills - Bromsgrove - Burton - Cannock Chase - Dudley South - Halesowen & Rowley Regis - Hereford & South Herefordshire - North Herefordshire - Kenilworth & Southam - Lichfield - Ludlow - Meriden - Nuneaton - Redditch - Rugby - Shrewsbury & Atcham - North Shropshire - Solihull - Stafford - Staffordshire Moorlands - South Staffordshire - Stoke-on-Trent South - Stone - Stourbridge - Stratford-on-Avon - Sutton Coldfield - Tamworth - Telford - North Warwickshire - Worcester - Mid Worcestershire | Gains: Birmingham Northfield, Dudley North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West
Labour
Birmingham Edgbaston - Birmingham Erdington - Birmingham Hall Green - Birmingham Hodge Hill - Birmingham Ladywood - Birmingham Perry Barr - Birmingham Selly Oak - Birmingham Yardley - Coventry North East - Coventry North West - Coventry South - Walsall North - Walsall South - Warley - Warwick & Leamington - Wolverhampton South East

EAST ENGLAND
Conservative
Basildon & Billericay - South Basildon & East Thurrock - Mid Bedfordshire - North East Bedfordshire - South West Bedfordshire - Braintree - Brentwood & Ongar - Broadland - Broxbourne - Bury St Edmunds - North East Cambridgeshire - North West Cambridgeshire - South Cambridgeshire - South East Cambridgeshire - Castle Point - Chelmsford - Clacton - Colchester - Epping Forest - Great Yarmouth - Harlow - Harwich & North Essex - Hemel Hempstead - Hertford & Stortford - North East Hertfordshire - South West Hertfordshire - Hertsmere - Hitchin & Harpenden - Huntingdon - Maldon - Mid Norfolk - North West Norfolk - South Norfolk - South West Norfolk - Norwich North - Rayleigh & Wickford - Rochford & Southend East - Saffron Walden - Southend West - Stevenage - Central Suffolk & Ipswich North - Suffolk Coastal - South Suffolk - West Suffolk - Thurrock - Watford - Waveney - Welwyn Hatfield - Witham | Gains: Ipswich, North Norfolk, Peterborough
Labour
Bedford - Cambridge - Luton North - Luton South - Norwich South
Liberal Democrats 
Gains: St Albans

SOUTH EAST ENGLAND
Conservative
Aldershot - Arundel & South Downs - Ashford - Aylesbury - Banbury - Basingstoke - Beaconsfield - Bexhill & Battle - Bognor Regis & Littlehampton - Bracknell - Buckinghamshire - Chatham & Aylesford - Chesham & Amersham - Chichester - Crawley - Dartford - Dover - Eastleigh - Epsom & Ewell - Esher & Walton - Fareham - Faversham & Mid Kent - Folkestone & Hythe - Gillingham & Rainham - Gosport - Gravesham - Guildford - East Hampshire - North East Hampshire - North West Hampshire - Hastings & Rye - Havant - Henley - Horsham - Isle of Wight - Lewes - Maidenhead - Maidstone & The Weald - Meon Valley - Milton Keynes North - Milton Keynes South - Mole Valley - New Forest East - New Forest West - Newbury - Portsmouth North - Reading West - Reigate - Rochester & Strood - Romsey & Southampton North - Runnymede & Weybridge - Sevenoaks - Sittingbourne & Sheppey - Southampton Itchen - Spelthorne - East Surrey - Surrey Heath - South West Surrey - Mid Sussex - North Thanet - South Thanet - Tonbridge & Malling - Tunbridge Wells - Wantage - Wealden - Winchester - Windsor - Witney - Woking - Wokingham - Worthing East & Shoreham - Worthing West - Wycombe | Gains: Eastbourne
Labour
Brighton Kemptown - Canterbury - Hove - Oxford East - Portsmouth South - Reading East - Slough - Southampton Test
Liberal Democrats
Oxford West and Abingdon
Green
Brighton Pavilion 

LONDON
Conservative
Beckenham - Bexleyheath & Crayford - Bromley & Chislehurst - Chelsea & Fulham - Chingford & Woodford Green - Chipping Barnet - Cities of London & Westminster - Croydon South - Finchley & Golders Green - Harrow East - Hendon - Hornchurch & Upminster - Old Bexley & Sidcup - Orpington - Putney - Romford - Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Richmond Park - Sutton & Cheam - Uxbridge & Ruislip South - Wimbledon | Gains: Carshalton & Wallington, Kensington
Labour
Barking - Battersea - Bermondsey & Old Southwark - Bethnal Green & Bow - Brentford & Isleworth - Brent Central - Brent North - Camberwell & Peckham - Croydon Central - Croydon North - Dagenham & Rainham - Dulwich & West Norwood - Ealing Central & Acton - Ealing North - Ealing Southall - East Ham - Edmonton - Eltham - Enfield North - Enfield Southgate - Erith & Thamesmead - Feltham & Heston - Greenwich & Woolwich - Hackney North & Stoke Newington - Hackney South & Shoreditch - Hammersmith - Hampstead & Kilburn - Harrow West - Hayes & Harlington - Holborn & St Pancras - Hornsey & Wood Green - Ilford North - Ilford South - Islington North - Islington South & Finsbury - Lewisham Deptford - Lewisham East - Lewisham West & Penge - Leyton & Wantstead - Mitcham & Morden - Poplar & Limehouse - Streatham - Tooting - Tottenham - Vauxhall - Walthamstow - West Ham - Westminster North | Gains: Putney
Liberal Democrats
Carshalton & Wallington - Kingston & Surbiton - Twickenham | Gains: Richmond Park

SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
Conservative
Bournemouth East - Bournemouth West - Bridgwater & Somerset West - Camborne & Redruth - Cheltenham - Chippenham - Christchurch - North Cornwall - South East Cornwall - The Cotswolds - Devizes - Central Devon - East Devon - North Devon - South West Devon - West Devon and Torridge - Mid Dorset and North Poole - North Dorset - South Dorset - West Dorset - Filton & Bradley Stoke - Forest of Dean - Gloucester - Kingswood - Newton Abbot - Plymouth Moor View - Poole - St Austell & Newquay - St Ives - Salisbury - North Somerset - North East Somerset - Somerton & Frome - North Swindon - South Swindon - Taunton Deane - Tewkesbury - Thornbury & Yate - Tiverton & Honiton - Torbay - Totnes - Truro & Falmouth - Wells - Weston-Super-Mare - North Wiltshire - South West Wiltshire - Yeovil | Gains: Stroud
Labour
Bristol East - Bristol North West - Bristol South - Bristol West - Exeter - Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
Liberal Democrats
Bath

SCOTLAND
Conservative
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - Banff & Buchan - Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - Dumfries & Galloway - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - Moray
Labour
Edinburgh South
Scottish National Party
Aberdeen North - Airdree & Shotts - Argyll & Bute - Ayrshire Central - Ayrshire North & Arran - Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East  - West Dunbartonshire - Dundee East - Dundee West - Dunfermline & West Fife - East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Edinburgh East - Edinburgh North & Leith - Edinburgh South West - Falkirk - Glasgow Central - Glasgow East - Glasgow North  - Glasgow North West - Glasgow South - Glasgow South West - Glenrothes - Inverclyde - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Kilmarnock & Loudoun - Lanark & Hamilton East - Linlithgow & Falkirk East - Livingston - Motherwell & Wishaw - Na h-Eileanan an lar - Paisley & Renfrewshire North - Paisley & Renfrewshire South - Perth & North Perthshire - Ross, Sky & Lochaber | Gains: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr-Carrick & Cumnock, Coatbridge-Chryston & Belshill, East Dunbartonshire, East Lothian, East Renfewshire, Glasgow North East, Gordon, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Ochil & South Perthshire, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Stirling
Liberal Democrats
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - Edinburgh West - Orkney & Shetland | Gains: North East Fife

WALES
Conservative
Aberconwy - Brecon & Radnorshire - Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire - Clwyd West - Monmouth - Montgomeryshire - Preseli Pembrokeshire - Vale of Glamorgan | Gains: Bridgend, Clwyd South, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham, Ynys Mon
Labour
Aberavon - Alyn & Deeside - Blaenau Gwent - Caerphilly - Cardiff Central - Cardiff North - Cardiff South & Penarth - Cardiff West - Cynon Valley - Gower - Islwyn - Llanelli - Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney - Neath - Newport East - Newport West - Ogmore - Pontypridd - Rhondda - Swansea East - Swansea West - Torfaen
Plaid Cymru
Arfon - Carmarthen East & Dinefwr - Ceredigion - Dwyfor Meirionnydd  

NORTHERN IRELAND
Democratic Unionists
Belfast East - East Antrim - East Londonderry - Lagan Valley - North Antrim - South Antrim - Strangford - Upper Bann 
Sinn Fein
Belfast West - Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Mid Ulster - Newry & Armagh - South Down - West Tyrone | Gains: Belfast North
SDLP 
Gains: Belfast South, Foyle 
Alliance
Gains: North Down

Thursday, 31 October 2019

General Election comes in with the cold

🎄⭐️GENERAL ELECTION 2019⭐️🎄

BRITAIN will head to the polls for the first General Election to be held in December since 1923 after the Early Parliamentary General Election Bill passed through both Houses of Parliament.

The poll - on Thursday 12 December - will be the fourth in a decade which has also included votes on Scottish membership of the United Kingdom in 2014 and UK membership of the European Union in 2016.

Of course, it is since the result of the latter referendum that Parliament has basically been gridlocked and unable to find any sort of way forward.

As briefly as possible then, here is how events have unfolded in the last three-and-a-half years...

On 23 June 2016 - a matter of 1,225 days ago now - the UK opted to leave the EU by a margin of 51.89% to 48.11% with England and Wales largely voting to leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland largely voted to remain.

Then-Prime Minister David Cameron immediately resigned and Theresa May emerged as the last woman standing following a rather messy Conservative leadership election in which the initial favourite - Boris Johnson - did not even stand.

Mr Cameron had at least bequeathed a majority in the House of Commons to Mrs May, albeit only a relatively small one of 17.

But, with the Conservatives holding a massive poll lead of up to 21 points, Mrs May called an early General Election in a bid to strengthen her negotiating hand with the EU.

Unexpectedly, it all went horribly wrong for Mrs May who lost her majority following her own disastrous campaign and the resurgence of the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn.

Instead, to keep herself in office, Mrs May was forced into a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, a hardline Northern Irish group of 10 MPs.

But, while Mrs May was nominally still in office, she held little power - and, having stalled in bringing her Withdrawal Agreement with the EU to the Commons in December 2018, she had to ward off a vote of no confidence among Conservative MPs.

That vote was one of Mrs May's very few successes during her term - and she would ultimately then put her deal before Parliament on three separate occasions in the first few months of this year.

On each occasion, the proposal was defeated - and, in fact, it was refused by a record of 432 votes to 202 on the first attempt on 15 January.

Humiliated, Mrs May was left with no choice other than to request a Brexit extension which was eventually granted by the EU to run until today.

By this point, though, Nigel Farage had returned to the forefront with his new vehicle for self-aggrandisement, the Brexit Party.

And so, in the 2019 European elections that should never have been, the Brexit Party repeated the UKIP achievement of 2014 by winning the most votes and seats.

By contrast, the Tories had plunged to fifth place with just 8.8% of the vote nationally.

Mrs May choked back her tears as she made her resignation speech in Downing Street and so began another frantic Conservative Party leadership contest.

Rather ridiculously, no fewer than 10 Tory MPs received enough nominations to be considered - although it quickly became inevitable that Mr Johnson would emerge as the victor.

Unlike Mrs May, though, Mr Johnson did not inherit a majority - and so the new PM quickly ran into his own problems in the Commons.

Famously, Mr Johnson declared he would “rather be dead in a ditch” than fail to leave the EU on Hallowe'en - but he can hardly be seen to have helped himself achieve his aim.

On his first day in the Commons on 3 September, Mr Johnson lost his majority even when counting the DUP after Phillip Lee crossed the floor - literally - and defected to the Liberal Democrats following a disagreement with Brexit policy.

Later that day, 21 Conservative MPs including two former Chancellors Kenneth Clarke and Philip Hammond had the party whip withdrawn for supporting an opposition motion aimed at blocking a no-deal Brexit.

The ousted rebels also included Sir Nicholas Soames - the grandson of former Conservative Party Leader Sir Winston Churchill - as Mr Johnson tempestuously reduced his own working majority to minus 43.

Unsurprisingly then, in record-breaking style, the Prime Minister lost his first six Commons votes throughout September as Parliament prevented him from calling an election while the grim prospect of leaving the EU without a deal was still possible.

Meanwhile, Mr Johnson had also failed to prorogue Parliament for an extra-long period in another move widely expected to be an improper attempt to avoid scrutiny of his own deal with the EU ahead of the 31 October deadline.

Indeed, on 24 September, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the prorogation was unlawful and Mr Johnson was sheepishly forced to back down.

Gradually, though, the Prime Minister was able to make some breakthroughs as, remarkably, he returned from Brussels with his own Withdrawal Agreement after months of the EU stating that it would not reopen negotiations.

More remarkably still, Mr Johnson then achieved what Mrs May never came close to doing - and, on 22 October, the Commons voted in favour of a Withdrawal Bill for the first time.

The good news for Mr Johnson did not last long, however. The next vote on the Programme Motion, which set out only a three-day timetable for debate on the Bill, was defeated.

At this stage, a further Brexit extension had basically become an inevitability - but, rather than using the extra time to discuss the Withdrawal Agreement which had been approved in principle, Mr Johnson impertinently took it off the table altogether.

Instead, he focused on getting himself a General Election with which to improve his position in the Commons.

On Monday, Mr Johnson failed for a third time to get an election via the two-thirds majority required under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011 brought in under Mr Cameron.

But there was still yet another option. A short Bill notwithstanding the FTPA, originally proposed by the Lib Dems and Scottish National Party, provided Mr Johnson with a workaround which required only a simple majority in the Commons.

It meant that, with no-deal back off the table until then, Labour was almost obliged to agree with an election or be accused of running scared.

So, now for a first General Election in December in 96 years - but here is a word of warning from the history books for Mr Johnson.

In that election in 1923, the Conservatives, led by Stanley Baldwin, won the most seats - but Labour, led by Ramsay MacDonald, and Herbert Asquith's Liberal Party gained enough seats to produce a hung parliament.

Mr MacDonald consequently formed the first ever Labour Government, albeit one that only lasted 10 months.

Monday, 27 May 2019

The end of May


THERESA MAY choked back the tears as she announced she would step down as Conservative leader on Friday 7 June having failed to get her Brexit deal through Parliament.

In an emotional statement outside of 10 Downing Street, Mrs May said she had done her best to deliver Britain's exit from the European Union, and it was a matter of "deep regret" that she had been unable to achieve this.

Meanwhile, Mrs May said she would continue to serve as Prime Minister while a Tory leadership contest took place with the result of that squabble expected by July.

And, undoubtedly, it will be quite the dogfight. Already, no fewer than nine MPs - Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey, Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart, and bookmakers' favourite Boris Johnson - have declared their candidature.

But whoever wins the contest will take charge of a party which is currently on its knees after the successive premierships of David Cameron and Mrs May.

Hard on the back of their worst local election results since 1995, the Conservatives finished down in fifth place on just 8.8% in European elections in which Britain was not even meant to take part.

Originally, of course, Brexit Day was meant to be on 29 March - almost two months ago now.

But, following nearly three years of delays amid continual infighting and general incompetence, the departure date was put back, first by a fortnight, to 12 April.

Then, perhaps appropriately given the complete political horror show which has happened so far, it was delayed until Hallowe'en, no less.

Now, every good horror movie needs a snivelling villain, and so it has been no surprise to see Nigel Farage return to the forefront of matters on the back of his new vanity project, namely the Brexit Party.

Admittedly, with the ballots counted, the Brexit Party did rather well on Thursday, winning a third of the vote and 28 of the 73 seats.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, Remain supporters deserted Labour and elevated the ardently pro-EU Liberal Democrats into second place.

Labour had to settle for third place while the Green Party took fourth ahead of the Conservatives who suffered their worst electoral result since the Great Reform Act in 1832.

Now, there seems little doubt that Mr Farage’s success campaigning in favour of a no-deal Brexit will push the Tory leadership candidates into hardline positions on leaving the EU.

Already, the Foreign Secretary, Mr Hunt has warned that the Conservatives were facing an “existential threat”, while Mr Johnson said it was a “crushing rebuke” to the government’s failure to take the UK out of the EU.

At this point then, it is probably worth reflecting on how exactly we got here...

Well, even if the result of the referendum held on 23 June 2016 is still accepted - which, among large swathes of the population, it is not - the whole thing has been a sorry mess since the outcome was announced.

Mr Cameron - the Prime Minister who instigated the vote and then backed the losing side - resigned immediately, prompting a Conservative leadership election in which prominent Brexiteer Mr Johnson ultimately did not stand.

Instead, Maidenhead MP Mrs May - a Remainer during the referendum campaign - eventually emerged from an unconvincing pack and soon invoked Article 50.

That set a two-year ticking countdown on Britain's departure from the EU - and yet, shortly afterwards, Mrs May called an early General Election.

It was perhaps the worst thing she could have done.

For, although the Conservatives remained the largest party in the House of Commons after the election, they lost their majority and Mrs May was forced into a confidence-and-supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

This was far from the "strong and stable" position which Mrs May had envisaged when she called the election.

Regardless of that setback, the formal negotiations with the EU began in earnest - but, in an ominous sign of things to come, the Northern Irish hardline DUP rejected a draft agreement set up in December 2017.

Still, negotiations continued and, on 26 June 2018, the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.

On the back of this, Mrs May attempted to shore up support among her more sceptical Cabinet ministers during a weekend at Chequers.

At first, the talks appeared to have gone down reasonably well - but stark divisions soon became apparent and, within days, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Mr Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, had both resigned among others.

Dominic Raab replaced the former - but within months, he had also resigned - and, although Stephen Barclay was named as his replacement, the deal from then on became personalised to Mrs May herself.

In December, the Prime Minister admitted she knew she did not have a majority to get her deal through the Commons and her weak position prompted a vote of confidence in her among Conservative MPs.

Mrs May survived the vote which nominally meant she could not be challenged to another internal confidence vote within 12 months.

However, the pressure on the PM immediately returned in the New Year when she finally put her deal before Parliament.

The size of the defeat - 230 votes - was the biggest ever government reverse in history with the Bill attracting derision from both Leave and Remain supporters.

It was exactly the sort of compromise where everybody would get what nobody wanted - and, as such, it was no surprise to see the deal roundly defeated for a second time when it was put before the Commons again by Mrs May on 12 March.

By then, there were only 17 days left before Britain was due to leave - and the tactical decision by Mrs May to run the clock down in a bid to spook MPs into backing her deal had clearly failed.

Instead, in an unprecedented move, the Commons voted by a majority of 27 to take control of business in Parliament so that they could hold a series of indicative votes as a directive towards breaking the impasse.

But it was never going to be that simple - and, having rejected Mrs May's deal twice, none of the eight alternative options tabled was able to command a Commons majority either.

Of course, even if that had not been the case, it still probably would not have actually provided a solution.

The indicative votes were not in any way legally binding in the same manner that Mrs May's unsatisfactory agreement was - and, for its part, the EU made it clear that it was in no mood to reopen negotiations.

Indeed, the only thing on which the EU appeared willing to budge was the Brexit deadline - and, even on this matter, only slightly.

For, following her second heavy defeat in the Commons, Mrs May had travelled to Brussels requesting an extension to get her deal approved by Parliament until 30 June.

But, instead, the EU merely granted an extension until 22 May, or - more likely - 12 April which was meant to be the effective date if the deal was still not approved.

It was at this point that the already protracted Commons theatrics took on an additional layer of farce as Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow threw an extra spanner in the works.

Mr Bercow cited a convention dating back to 1604 that a defeated motion could not be brought back in the same form during the course of a parliamentary session.

As it happened, Mrs May managed to present a substantively different proposal by removing the more controversial Political Declaration element which covered the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

But, on the day which Britain was meant to leave the EU, MPs again rejected the Withdrawal Agreement, on that occasion by a majority of 58.

The deal, as it stood, was effectively dead in the water - and the PM had finally been forced to turn to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for talks while the EU granted a further extension.

Mr Corbyn, though, was less than impressed that it had taken this long for him to be consulted on a matter of such national importance and so refused to move on his own red lines.

Talks with Labour duly broke down at the back end of the week before last and Mrs May was now cornered with nowhere else to go for support.

Of course, merely the mention of the Prime Minister talking with the Leader of the Opposition had been enough to condemn her in the eyes of some Conservatives - and, from then on, it became a matter of days before her resignation announcement would come.

"Please do not waste this time!" said Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, after the extension until 31 October had been granted.

But, with a Tory leadership election now set to take place followed by an eight-week summer recess, it is certainly not a message which has been heeded.

The no-deal cliff-edge once again draws ever closer - there are just 157 days to go until Hallowe'en.


⭐2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

⭐ NATIONAL SCOREBOARD

Vote
Seats
Brexit 31.6%(+31.6%)29(+29)
Liberal Democrats20.3%(+13.4%)16(+15)
Labour14.1%(-11.3%)10(-10)
Green 12.1%(+4.2%)7(+4)
Conservatives9.1%(-14.8%)4(-15)
SNP3.6%(+1.1%)3(+1)
Change UK3.4%(+3.4%)0-
UKIP3.3%(-24.2%)0(-24)
Plaid Cymru1.0%(+0.3%)1-

Note Northern Ireland has yet to declare

⭐ REGIONS

NE
  NW
  Yorks
  W Mids
  E Mids








Brexit 38.7%2 (+2)  31.2%3 (+3)  36.5%3 (+3)37.7%3 (+3)38.2%3 (+3)







Lib Dems16.8%-17.2%2 (+2)15.5%1 (+1)16.3%1 (+1)17.2%1 (+1)







Labour19.4%1 (-1)21.9%2 (-1)16.3%1 (-1)16.9%1 (-1)13.9%1 (-)







Green 8.1%-12.5%1 (+1)12.9%1 (+1)10.7%1 (+1)10.7%-







Conservatives6.8%- 7.6%- (-2)7.2%- (-1)10.0%1 (-1)10.5%- (-2)







UKIP6.2%- (-1)3.6%- (-3)4.4%- (-3)4.9%- (-3)4.9%- (-2)









London
  SE
  SW
  East
 Wales








Brexit 17.9%2 (+2)  36.1%4 (+4)  36.7%3 (+3)  37.8%3 (+3)31.3%



2 (+2)



Lib Dems27.2%3 (+3)25.8%3 (+2)23.1%2 (+2)22.6%2 (+2)13.2%



-



Labour23.9%2 (-2)7.3%1 (-)6.5%- (-1)8.7%- (-1)14.8%



1 (-)



Green 12.5%1 (-)13.5%1 (-)18.1%1 (-)12.7%1 (+1)6.1%



-



Conservatives7.9%- (-2)10.3%1 (-2)8.7%- (-2)10.3%1 (-2)6.3%



-



UKIP2.1%- (-1)2.2%- (-4)3.2%- (-2)3.4%- (-3)3.2%



-



Plaid Cymru







22.4%



1 (-)





Scotland













Brexit 14.8%1 (+1)












Lib Dems13.9%1 (+1)















Labour9.3%- (-2)















Green 8.3%-















Conservatives11.6%1 (-)















UKIP1.8%- (-1)















SNP37.8%3 (+1)
















Note Northern Ireland has yet to declare

⭐BREXIT: A TIMELINE

24 January 2013 Report
Then-Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, if the Conservatives won a majority at the 2015 General Election, the Government would hold a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the European Union (EU) following a series of renegotiations.

30 March 2015
A General Election was called following the dissolution of the Parliament under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011.

7 May 2015 Report
The General Election was held. David Cameron defied expectations of a Hung Parliament and led the Conservatives to their first outright majority since 1997.

19 February 2016
David Cameron announced the outcome of the renegotiations. The renegotiated terms were in addition to existing opt-outs in the EU as well as the UK rebate - but critics argued there would be no fundamental change to the EU-UK relationship.

20-21 February 2016 Report
David Cameron effectively fired the starting pistol on an in-out referendum by announcing it would be held on 23 June 2016. On the following morning, his long-time rival - the then-Mayor of London Boris Johnson - confirmed he would be backing the Vote Leave campaign

23-24 June 2016
Britain voted 52-48 in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit). David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister on the following morning, triggering a Conservative leadership election.

30 June 2016
Then-Justice Secretary Michael Gove confirmed his bid to become party leader, prompting Boris Johnson, the bookmakers' favourite, to announce he would not enter the leadership contest.

13 July 2016 Report
Theresa May formally became Prime Minister having beaten Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove in the Conservative leadership contest. On the same day, George Osborne was sacked as Chancellor of Exchequer in a reshuffle, and replaced by Philip Hammond.

3 November 2016
The Supreme Court ruled in the favour of Gina Miller who had campaigned for Brexit to be approved through Parliament.

17 January 2017
Theresa May announced that Brexit would be subject to a "meaningful vote" in both Houses of Parliament.

29 March 2017
Article 50 was formally invoked, starting a two-year countdown until Britain severs ties with the EU.

18 April 2017
Theresa May - comfortably ahead in the polls - called a "snap" General Election.

8 June 2017 Report
The General Election was held. The result showed the Conservatives remained the largest party but that they had lost their majority due to a Labour resurgence under Jeremy Corbyn.

9 June 2017
Theresa May vowed to continue as PM and struck a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

13 July 2017
David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, introduced a bill in the House of Commons which ensured Britain's withdrawal from the EU would be subject to a "meaningful vote".

July 2017-November 2017
Negotiation phase 1: A series of talks in Brussels (17-20 July, 28-31 August, 7 September, 25 September, 9-12 October, 9-10 November) over Britain's withdrawal from the EU were held.

4 December 2017
A draft agreement was expected to be finalised at a meeting between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. However, the meeting was abandoned after the DUP objected to arrangements for the Irish border

December 2017-March 2018
Negotiation phase 2: transitional arrangements included an Irish backstop which was agreed in principle by Theresa May and EU chief negotiator Michael Barnier. The backstop potentially tied Northern Ireland to EU trade laws beyond Brexit.

26 June 2018
The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.

6 July 2018
Theresa May summoned her Cabinet to Chequers to shore up support for her Brexit agreement.

8-9 July 2018
Brexit Secretary David Davis tendered his resignation, stating the deal - as it stood - was too soft. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also stepped down as he considered the deal had the potential to turn Britain "into a European colony". Dominic Raab was appointed as Brexit Secretary in a reshuffle.

July-November 2018
Negotiation phase 3: Britain continued its negotiations with the EU.

15 November 2018
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, saying he “cannot in good conscience” support the deal agreed by the Cabinet. He was joined by a spate of others including Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.

16 November 2018
Stephen Barclay became the third Brexit Secretary of the year.

4 December 2018
The Government lost three votes in the Commons and was found in contempt of Parliament. Consequently, the Government was forced to publish its full legal advice on Brexit.

10 December 2018
Theresa May was forced to call off the "meaningful vote" in Parliament, admitting that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority for her deal in the Commons.

12 December 2018 Report
At least 48 Tory MPs' letters were sent into Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. A vote of no confidence was called in Theresa May which she won with a majority of 83 (200-117).

15 January 2019
MPs rejected Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement with the EU by a record margin of 230 votes (432-202), prompting a motion of no confidence from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

16 January 2019
The Government of Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence with a majority of 19 (325-306) as MPs, for the most part, voted along party lines.

28-29 January 2019
Theresa May returned to Brussels to renegotiate her Brexit deal after MPs voted by 317 to 301 for an amendment which called for scrapping the prior agreement’s Irish backstop in favour of yet-to-be defined “alternative arrangements”. The Brady amendment, tabled by 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, was supported by the Prime Minister herself.

18-20 February 2019
A total of 11 pro-Remain MPs - eight from Labour and three from the Conservatives - splintered from their respective parties in protest at their leaders' approaches to Brexit.

25 February 2019
For the first time, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn made a statement in which he publicly backed holding a second referendum on Britain's membership of the EU if Labour fails to get its own version of a Brexit deal passed.

11-12 March 2019
Theresa May returned from further talks with the EU in Strasbourg. However, the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox advised that the deal, as it stood, still carried a "legal risk" that the UK would have no way out of the Irish backstop without EU agreement. Subsequently, MPs once again rejected Theresa May's deal by a still significant margin of 149 votes (391-242).

13 March 2019
MPs rejected any type of no-deal Brexit at any time by a majority of 43 (321-278). Earlier, MPs had backed an amendment to this main motion by just four votes (312-308) which changed the wording of the main motion from them rejecting the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019 to them rejecting the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without any type of deal at any time. The votes were not legally binding, however, and therefore no-deal remained the default outcome.

21 March 2019
Theresa May requested a delay of the Brexit deadline until 30 June. However, the EU was only willing to grant an extension until 22 May, or 12 April if Mrs May's deal was not approved by the UK Parliament.

26 March 2019
Theresa May conceded there was still not enough support in Parliament to get her own deal through the Commons. Later, MPs voted by a majority of 27 (329-302) for the Letwin Amendment which allowed them to take control of business in Parliament in order for them to hold a series of indicative votes.

27 March 2019
Indicative votes were held in the House of Commons but none of the eight options was carried with a majority. Meanwhile, Theresa May told a group of Conservative MPs in a meeting of the 1922 Committee that she would resign before the next stage of the Brexit process if she was able to get her deal through Parliament.

29 March 2019
On the day which Britain was meant to leave the EU, MPs again rejected Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, on that occasion by a majority of 58 (344-286).

3-5 April 2019
Talks between Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn began as the main party leaders attempted to find a solution which would break the Brexit deadlock. In the meantime, Theresa May wrote to EU Council president Donald Tusk "reluctantly" asking for another extension to Article 50.

11 April 2019
European Union leaders granted the UK a six-month extension to Brexit until 31 October, after late-night talks in Brussels. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn continued to hold discussions.

14 May 2019
Theresa May proposed to bring the Withdrawal Agreement to the House of Commons in the first week on June in order for a fourth vote to be held on it.

17 May 2019
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn blamed each other as talks between them collapsed with nothing having been decided.

22-23 May 2019
Leader of the Commons Andrea Leadsom became the 36th minister to resign from Theresa May's Government stating that she no longer believed the Government's approach would deliver Brexit. In the meantime, May shelved plans to publish Withdrawal Agreement bill amid growing Cabinet backlash against it.

24 May 2019
Theresa May announced she would step down as Conservative leader on Friday 7 June though stay on as Prime Minister in a caretaker capacity while her successor is chosen.

26 May 2019
Voters in the 2019 European elections split along Leave and Remain lines as the Conservatives and Labour suffered respectively against surges by the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.