Friday, 8 September 2023

Rugby World Cup preview: C'est le moment... peut-être

RUGBY WORLD CUP

POOL A

FRANCE  World ranking 3
Head coach Fabian Galthie (since November 2019)
World Cup best Runners-up 1987, 1999, 2011
RWC 2019 Quarter finals
Squad
Forwards Pierre Bourgarit, Julien Marchand, Peato Mauvaka, Dorian Aldegheri, Uini Atonio, Cyril Baille, Sipili Falatea, Jean-Baptiste Gros, Reda Wardi, Thibaud Flament, Romain Taofifenua, Bastien Chalureau, Cameron Woki, Grégory Alldritt, Paul Boudehent, François Cros, Sekou Macalou, Charles Ollivon, Anthony Jelonch
Backs Baptiste Couilloud, Antoine Dupont (captain), Maxime Lucu, Antoine Hastoy, Matthieu Jalibert, Jonathan Danty, Gaël Fickou, Yoram Moefana, Arthur Vincent, Louis Bielle-Biarrey, Damian Penaud, Gabin Villière, Melvyn Jaminet, Thomas Ramos
Host nation France could not have timed it better - from the depths of a humiliating Six Nations wooden spoon 10 years ago via a complete evisceration at the hands of New Zealand in the 2015 Rugby World Cup at the quarter finals stage, the French have undergone a long road back to recovery and respectability. A first Six Nations title since 2010 for Les Bleus - a Grand Slam no less - arrived in 2022, and only a singular defeat to Ireland in Dublin in February prevented Fabian Galthie's XV from back-to-back titles. Skipper Antoine Dupont, winner of the Six Nations player of the tournament award for the last two years, is the poster for this competition as a whole - and, as a man who is coolness personified in the heat of the game, France will need those qualities from Dupont and the rest of the squad as they deal with the pressure of attempting to win their first Rugby World Cup on home soil. Beaten finalists in 1987, 1999 and 2011, Les Bleus handily seem to peak on a duodecennial basis, only for the crows of the cockerel to be silenced at the last. This time, though, there is a genuine inkling that this is finally the moment the French star shines brightest.
 Prediction Champions

NEW ZEALAND  World ranking 4
Head coach Ian Foster (since December 2019)
World Cup best Champions 1987, 2011, 2015
RWC 2019 Semi finals
Squad
• Forwards Scott Barrett, Sam Cane (captain), Dane Coles, Shannon Frizell, Ethan de Groot, Luke Jacobson, Nepo Laulala, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Dalton Papali’i, Brodie Retallick, Ardie Savea, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Codie Taylor, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Tupou Vaa’i, Sam Whitelock, Tamaiti Williams
• Backs Beauden Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Finlay Christie, Caleb Clarke, Leicester Fainga’anuku, David Havili, Rieko Ioane, Will Jordan, Anton Lienert-Brown, Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga, Emoni Narawa, Cam Roigard, Aaron Smith, Mark Telea
For all the hype about hosts France, holders South Africa and world number one team Ireland, it is still New Zealand who keep their customary spot as favourites - with the bookmakers at least. It is a position which the All Blacks have found themselves going into just about every Rugby World Cup finals - but it has not always worked out with the most notable drought occurring over a 24-year period between their success at the inaugural tournament in 1987 and their long-awaited victory at home against France in 2011. The All Blacks vintage which ended the wait - led by skipper Richie McCaw on the pitch and former head coaches Graham Henry and Steve Hansen on the sidelines - was a total behemoth, also winning the 2015 tournament while in the midst of a record 18-match winning streak. The current squad too has the talent to match their forebears with all four of the most recent Tri Nations or Rugby Championship titles being won by the All Blacks. However, this New Zealand outfit is far more prone to an off-day with recent examples including a run of six defeats in eight between November 2021 and August 2022, as well as an all-time record reverse to the South Africans in the final warm-up match for this tournament. For sure, the All Blacks know better than any other side that there are no second chances in the knockout stage - and, with a quarter final likely against the Springboks or the Irish regardless of the outcome of the opening game against hosts France, the lop-sided draw has made it even tougher for Ian Foster's men.
 Prediction Quarter finals

ITALY  World ranking 13
Head coach Kieran Crowley (since May 2021)
World Cup best Pool stage 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Pietro Ceccarelli,Simone Ferrari, Danilo Fischetti, Ivan Nemer, Marco Riccioni, Federico Zani, Luca Bigi, Epalahame Faiva, Giacomo Nicotera, Niccolò Cannone, Dino Lamb, Federico Ruzza, David Sisi, Lorenzo Cannone, Toa Halafihi, Michele Lamaro (captain), Sebastian Negri, Giovanni Pettinelli, Manuel Zuliani
• Backs Alessandro Fusco, Alessandro Garbisi, Martin Page-Relo, Stephen Varney, Tommaso Allan, Giacomo Da Re, Paolo Garbisi, Juan Ignacio Brex, Luca Morisi, Pierre Bruno, Ange Capuozzo, Monty Ioane, Paolo Odogwu, Lorenzo Pani
Italy have been ever-presents at the Rugby World Cup since its inception in 1987 but have yet to make it through the Pool stage. In fairness, though, they have regularly been pitted against New Zealand - and, in fact, their next meeting against the All Blacks in Lyon on 29 September will be a seventh scheduled World Cup match between the teams out of 10 tournaments with the Kiwis coming out on top in all five of the previous completed games. The one exception came four years ago in Japan when Typhoon Hagidis caused the fixture to be cancelled, an outcome which meant the Azzurri finished a Rugby World Cup finals with two wins out of four for a fifth successive time. Most likely, it will become six-in-a-row as, while the Italians should have enough to beat Uruguay and Namibia, they will find sharply primed France and New Zealand teams far too tough to handle. Certainly, though, Italy head coach Kieran Crowley will expect his side to produce still creditable performances against the two higher-ranked teams. For, while their Six Nations campaign this year ended in familiar fashion with five defeats out of five and a wooden spoon, Italy's overall points difference of -60 was comfortably their best effort since 2013 when they surprisingly finished fourth, suggesting this set of players is tentatively improving.
 Prediction Pool stage

URUGUAY  World ranking 17
Head coach Esteban Meneses (since December 2015)
World Cup best Pool stage 1999, 2003, 2015, 2019
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Felipe Aliaga, Diego Arbelo, Manuel Ardao, Matías Benítez, Lucas Bianchi, Santiago Civetta, Carlos Deus, Manuel Diana, Eric dos Santos, Ignacio Dotti, Facundo Gattas, Germán Kessler, Manuel Leindekar, Ignacio Péculo, Reinaldo Piussi, Guillermo Pujadas, Juan Manuel Rodríguez, Mateo Sanguinetti
• Backs Juan Manuel Alonso, Santiago Álvarez, Baltazar Amaya, Santiago Arata, Felipe Arcos Pérez, Bautista Basso, Felipe Berchesi, Felipe Etcheverry, Ignacio Facciolo, Nicolás Freitas, Tomás Inciarte, Gastón Mieres, Agustín Ormaechea, Rodrigo Silva, Andrés Vilaseca (captain)
Uruguay have set their sights high as they head into their fifth appearance at a Rugby World Cup finals with the clear aim of winning more than one match at a single tournament for the first time. It is certainly an ambitious target but, in fairness, it is also an achievable one on the basis that Los Teros arrive in France with a fully professional squad, something which they have never had before. No fewer than 21 of the players in Esteban Meneses's 33-man selection ply their trade with the Penarol Rugby franchise in the Super Rugby Americas (SRA) tournament, set up by Uruguayan Rugby Union in a brave move which involved carrying the logo and colours of the famous Montevideo soccer team. Undoubtedly, though, the project has been a success on the pitch - Penarol were SRA champions in 2022 and 2023, having been runners-up in 2021 - and the players' familiarity with each other's game can only be beneficial to the national team too. Still, in the grand scheme of things, it is early days - and, to fulfil the heady expectations, the South Americans will rely on Pool A rivals Italy having one of their poorer days. 
 Prediction Pool stage

NAMIBIA  World ranking 21
Head coach Allister Coetzee (since June 2021)
World Cup best Pool stage 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Jason Benade, Adriaan Booysen, Aranos Coetzee, Wian Conradie, Tiaan de Klerk, Prince Gaoseb, Richard Hardwick, Max Katjijeko, Adriaan Ludick, Johan Retief, Desiderius Sethie, Mahepisa Tjeriko, Tjiuee Uanivi, Louis van der Westhuizen, Torsten van Jaarsveld, PJ van Lill, Casper Viviers
• Backs Oela Blaauw, Danco Burger, Johan Deysel (captain), JC Greyling, Cliven Loubser, Le Roux Malan, Gerswin Mouton, Chad Plato, Alcino Isaacs, Divan Rossouw, Damian Stevens, Tiaan Swanepoel, Jacques Theron, Andre van der Berg
Namibia finally got off the mark in Rugby World Cup terms in the previous tournament in Japan - but had Typhoon Hagadis to thank for their first (and only) ever finals point after their match against Canada was cancelled. In fairness, the Welwitschias - who have appeared in all six Rugby World Cup finals since their debut in 1999 - performed well enough in defeat in their other three games to finish narrowly above the Canadians, the first time that they had not finished bottom of a Pool. Of course, the Namibians will hope for a more meaningful achievement to celebrate this time around - and the match against Uruguay on 27 September offers a reasonable chance. The two sides met as recently as 5 August and, although the South Americans prevailed 26-18, the south west African side competed well throughout.
 Prediction Pool stage


POOL B

SOUTH AFRICA  World ranking 2
Head coach Jacques Nienaber (since January 2020)
World Cup best Champions 1995, 2007, 2019
RWC 2019 Champions
Squad
Forwards Ox Nche, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, Frans Malherbe, Trevor Nyakane, Bongi Mbonambi, Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman, Marvin Orie, Jean Kleyn, Marco van Staden, Siya Kolisi (captain), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith, Duane Vermeulen, Jasper Wiese, Deon Fourie, Franco Mostert
Backs Faf de Klerk, Jaden Hendrikse, Grant Williams, Cobus Reinach, Manie Libbok, Damian de Allende, Andre Esterhuizen, Jesse Kriel, Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Canan Moodie, Makazole Mapimpi, Willie Le Roux, Damian Willemse
Defending champions South Africa will be confident of keeping their world title after their show of strength at Twickenham where they inflicted a record defeat on New Zealand two weeks ago. The Springboks may have fallen short in the last two editions Rugby Championship - but, since their re-entry to the game following the end of apartheid, it has only really been the Rugby World Cup which matters. The iconic image of late South African President Nelson Mandela handing over the William Webb Ellis trophy to Francois Pienaar - captured in the epic film Invictus - is seared into the memory of all of the citizens who were alive to see it in 1995, and part of the education for everyone born afterwards. South Africa are nowhere near clear favourites, of course - but there is massive home pressure on France, concerns in New Zealand over form, an albatross around the neck of Ireland, and nothing to fear from the other half of the draw. Now, back-to-back World Cups would send South Africa above New Zealand on four titles overall - not that Jacques Nienaber's squad will need any motivation when their tournament starts against Scotland on 10 September in what is an extremely tough section. 
 Prediction Runners-up

IRELAND  World ranking 1
Head coach Andy Farrell (since November 2019)
World Cup best Quarter finals 1987, 1991, 1995, 2003, 2011, 2015, 2019
RWC 2019 Quarter finals
Squad
Forwards Ryan Baird, Finlay Bealham, Tadhg Beirne, Jack Conan, Caelan Doris, Tadhg Furlong, Iain Henderson, Rob Herring, Ronan Kelleher, David Kilcoyne, Jeremy Loughman, Joe McCarthy, Peter O’Mahony, Tom O’Toole, Andrew Porter, James Ryan, Dan Sheehan, Josh van der Flier
Backs Bundee Aki, Ross Byrne, Craig Casey, Jack Crowley, Keith Earls, Jamison Gibson-Park, Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Hugo Keenan, James Lowe, Stuart McCloskey, Conor Murray, Jimmy O’Brien, Garry Ringrose, Jonathan Sexton (captain)
Here we go again. Ireland head into a Rugby World Cup as the world number one ranked team for the second time in a row, four years after a seventh quarter final exit. Remarkably, the quarter final stage is the furthest that the Irish have ever got at a World Cup with perhaps the toughest of all of the eliminations actually occurring eight years ago when, again well fancied after successive Six Nations titles, an injury-hit side were instead battered 43-20 by an outstanding Argentina outfit. In full, Irish defeats in the last eight have come against Australia (1987, 1991), France (1995, 2003), Wales (2011), Argentina (2015) and New Zealand (2019) with none of the matches, barring the agonising one-point defeat to the Aussies in 1991, being particularly close. Now, members of the current squad insist Andy Farrell's XV will not be haunted by past failures and they actually head into the competition on the back of a wonderful streak of 13 successive Test wins. World Cup rugby hits differently, though - and, with holders South Africa selected in the same Pool and France or New Zealand likely waiting in the quarter finals, it is going to take something special even for a number one-ranked Ireland to exorcise the demons of the past. 
 Prediction Quarter finals

SCOTLAND  World ranking 5
Head coach Gregor Townsend (since May 2017)
World Cup best Semi finals 1991
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
Forwards Ewan Ashman, Jamie Bhatti, Dave Cherry, Luke Crosbie, Scott Cummings, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey, Matt Fagerson, Zander Fagerson, Grant Gilchrist, Richie Gray, WP Nel, Jamie Ritchie (captain), Pierre Schoeman, Javan Sebastian, Sam Skinner, Rory Sutherland, George Turner, Hamish Watson
Backs Darcy Graham, Chris Harris, Ben Healy, George Horne, Huw Jones, Blair Kinghorn, Ali Price, Cameron Redpath, Finn Russell, Ollie Smith, Kyle Steyn, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Ben White
Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend believes his side heads into the Rugby World Cup with "nothing to lose", having been drawn in a brutal section against the defending champions South Africa and world number one ranked outfit Ireland. Notably, the Scots are on an eight-match losing streak against the Irish and have just one win in 15 against the Springboks, so the odds are indeed firmly against the Thistles. Now, if the expected results come to pass, Scotland will be heading out of the tournament at the earliest possible stage for the third time in four editions - but, while the strength of their opponents make this outcome highly likely, recent performances have at least provided hope that such premature exits might be avoided in the future. After all, this summer, Scotland produced a brilliant comeback to beat World Cup hosts France in a warm-up match at Murrayfield before narrowly failing to repeat the feat a week later in a thriller in Saint-Etienne. Earlier this year, the Scots also finished in the Six Nations top three for only the third time since 2006 and completed back-to-back wins against England at Twickenham for the first time ever to make it three in a row against the Auld Enemy. Crucially, though, Townsend's men still finished behind Ireland and lost quite comfortably to them in Edinburgh. Another perhaps more valiant but still frustrating night awaits at the Stade de France in Paris on 7 October. 
 Prediction Pool stage

TONGA  World ranking 15
Head coach Toutai Kefu (since May 2016)
World Cup best Pool stage 1987, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
Forwards Sosefo ‘Apikotoa, Adam Coleman, Sione Havili Talitui, Vaea Fifita, Siegfried Fisi’ihoi, Fe’ao Fotuaika, Solomone Funaki, Tanginoa Halaifonua, Tau Koloamatangi, Paula Latu, Sam Lousi, Steve Mafi, Siua Maile, Samiuela Moli, Paula Ngauamo, Semisi Paea, Ben Tameifuna, Sione Vailanu
Backs Pita Ahki, Malakai Fekitoa, George Moala, William Havili, Fine Inisi, Solomone Kata, Otumaka Mausia, Manu Paea, Salesi Piutau, Augustine Pulu, Sonatane Takulua (captain), Kyren Taumoefolau, Afusipa Taumoepeau, Anzelo Tuitavuki
Tonga remain the poor relations of the Pacific Island Nations having never breached the Pool stage at a Rugby World Cup despite appearing at all but one of the previous editions, missing out only in 1991. ʻIkale Tahi (The Sea Eagles) are also the only team yet to win the now four-cornered Pacific Nations Cup in which they usually compete against Fiji, Samoa and Japan - and, in fact, they have been whitewashed in last two editions of that competition. Consequently, while Romania should pose few problems, it is difficult to hold out much hope for the Tongans ahead of the other matches in this devilishly brutal section. After all, Pool B features three of the top five teams in the pre-tournament rankings - and, even with the introduction of a handful of former All Blacks in the squad following a landmark decision by World Rugby Council to amend player eligibility rules, Tonga will do well to make much of an impression. 
 Prediction Pool stage

ROMANIA  World ranking 19
Head coach Eugen Apjok (since December 2022)
World Cup best Pool stage 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015
RWC 2019 Expelled after qualification
Squad
• Forwards Alexandru Savin, Gheorghe Gajion, Thomas Crețu, Alexandru Gordaș, Costel Burțilă, Iulian Harțig, Ovidiu Cojocaru, Robert Irimescu, Florin Bărdașu, Adrian Motoc, Marius Iftimiciuc, Ștefan Iancu, Cristi Chirica (captain), Andre Gorin, Vlad Neculau, Dragoș Ser, Cristi Boboc, Florian Roșu, Damian Strătilă
• Backs Gabriel Rupanu, Florin Surugiu, Alin Conache, Gabriel Pop, Lama Sioeli, Tudor Boldor, Nicolas Onuțu, Marius Simionescu, Taliauli Sikuea, Taylor Gontineac, Jason Tomane, Tangimana Fonovai, Tevita Manumua, Hinckley Vaovasa
Romania make a welcome return having missed out on the 2019 tournament after fielding an ineligible player during qualification. Until then, Stejarii (The Oaks) had actually featured in every single Rugby World Cup finals, though had done with little success, winning only six games across their nine appearances, and never more than one at a single edition. Even that looks beyond this team, though, following what has been - to put it as kindly as possible - a difficult build-up. Heavy defeats to Italy (57-7), Georgia (56-6), and a 31-17 reverse to a United States team which did not even qualify suggest this could be a painful reintroduction to the top level.
 Prediction Pool stage


POOL C

WALESWorld ranking 10
Head coach Warren Gatland (since December 2022)
World Cup best Semi finals 1987, 2011, 2019
RWC 2019 Semi finals
Squad
• Forwards Taine Basham, Adam Beard, Elliot Dee, Corey Domachowski, Ryan Elias, Taulupe Faletau, Tomas Francis, Dafydd Jenkins, Dewi Lake (co-captain), Dillon Lewis, Dan Lydiate, Jac Morgan (co-captain), Tommy Reffell, Will Rowlands, Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas, Henry Thomas, Christ Tshiunza, Aaron Wainwright
• Backs Josh Adams, Gareth Anscombe, Dan Biggar, Sam Costelow, Gareth Davies, Rio Dyer, Mason Grady, Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Louis Rees-Zammit, Nick Tompkins, Johnny Williams, Liam Williams, Tomos Williams
It is no secret that Welsh rugby has spent the build up to this Rugby World Cup in a mess, on and off the field. In February, the players temporarily walked out of talks with the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) and threatened to refuse to play the Six Nations match against England in Cardiff. The grievances were multi-layered and principally focused not only on money but also matters such as a ruling which required players to have won 60 caps in order to play outside of Wales and remain available for selection for the national team. Uncertainty reigned as the four Celtic League teams - Cardiff, Ospreys, Scarlets and Dragons - were unable to make contract offers to players without the consent of the governing body amid financial cuts - and this all came hard on the back of the resignation of WRU chief executive Steve Phillips following a damning report which concluded the organisation was fuelled by sexism, misogyny and racism. Matters have slowly been resolved - a salary cap has been agreed between the WRU and the teams while the national team cap ruling has been reduced to 25 - but the fear is that the damage has already been done. Recent form has been pretty dreadful with the Welsh winning just three of their last 12 matches in the last 12 months, a sequence which has included a historic 13-12 reverse to Georgia and chastening defeats to New Zealand, Ireland, Scotland, and a record 52-16 thumping from South Africa. Several retirements from players such as Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Rhys Webb are still being keenly felt - and, even in as kindly a section as this, it will take some extra special magic from wily head coach Warren Gatland for his team to go deep into the tournament.
 Prediction Quarter finals

AUSTRALIAWorld ranking 9    
Head coach Eddie Jones (since January 2023)
World Cup best Champions 1991, 1999
RWC 2019 Quarter finals
Squad
• Forwards Angus Bell, Pone Fa’amausili, Zane Nonggorr, Blake Schoupp, James Slipper, Taniela Tupou, Matt Faessler, David Porecki, Jordan Uelese, Richie Arnold, Nick Frost, Matt Philip, Will Skelton (captain), Langi Gleeson, Tom Hooper, Rob Leota, Fraser McReight, Rob Valetini
• Backs Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, Tate McDermott, Nic White, Carter Gordon, Lalakai Foketi, Samu Kerevi, Izaia Perese, Jordan Petaia, Max Jorgensen, Andrew Kellaway, Marika Koroibete, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Suliasi Vunivalu
Big-headed Eddie Jones fell short - although only just - with Australia on home soil in 2003 and again with England in 2019 - yet, 20 years later, the 63-year-old is now back in charge of the Wallabies after the dismissal of Dave Rennie via Zoom following a run of just five wins from 14 matches including a first ever defeat to Italy. If the executives at Rugby Australia thought the unceremonious ditching of Rennie would work, though, they were very wrong. Indeed, in results terms, it could not have gone worse since Jones returned Down Under with the Aussies losing all five of the matches since his return, collecting the wooden spoon in the Rugby Championship for the first time, before further defeats in warm-up matches against New Zealand and France. It is perhaps no surprise then, on that basis, Jones has made some big calls, most notably omitting Michael Hooper (125 caps) and Quade Cooper (79 caps) from his 33-man squad. Those selections might yet be canny calls from Jones - and, once he gets a first win on the board which should come against Georgia, he certainly has the personality to inspire a good run from his team. Whatever happens, though, it will not be good enough for Australia to join their fellow southern hemisphere sides New Zealand and South Africa on three Rugby World Cup wins. 
 Prediction Semi finals

FIJIWorld ranking 7
Head coach Simon Raiwalui (since February 2023)
World Cup best Quarter finals 1987, 2007
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Eroni Mawi, Peni Ravai, Jone Koroiduadua, Mesake Doge, Luke Tagi, Samu Tawake, Tevita Ikanivere, Sam Matavesi, Zuriel Togiatama, Isoa Nasilasila, Temo Mayanavanua, Te Ahiwaru Cirikidaveta, Albert Tuisue, Lekima Tagitagivalu, Levani Botia, Vilive Miramira, Meli Derenalagi, Viliame Mata
• Backs Frank Lomani, Peni Matawalu, Simione Kuruvoli, Caleb Muntz, Teti Tela, Josua Tuisova, Semi Radradra, Waisea Nayacalevu (captain), Iosefo Masi, Selesitino Ravutaumada, Vinaya Habosi, Jiuta Wainiqolo, Kalaveti Ravouvou, Sireli Maqala, Ilaisa Droasese
The build-up to the Rugby World Cup for Fiji could not have gone any better than it has. A historic first ever win anywhere over England came at Twickenham in their final warm-up match - and the 30-22 triumph was nothing less than Pacific Islanders deserved. It moved the Flying Fijians up to seventh in the world rankings, their best ever placing - so, remarkably, Simon Raiwalui's side have gone from being drawn from the third rung teams back in December 2020 to entering the tournament as the highest ranked team in Pool C, above Australia and Wales. Of course, in terms of rugby as a whole, Fiji boast great pedigree in the Sevens format of the game - but their XV are not without their moments too, with their most significant successes coming in progress to quarter finals of the 1987 and 2007 editions of the Rugby World Cup. The latter run included a 38-34 win over Wales in Nantes - and a repeat of that tie on the first weekend of this tournament, this time in Bordeaux, will go a long way to determine whether Fiji will be able to back up some extremely encouraging signs.
 Prediction Pool stage

GEORGIAWorld ranking 11
Head coach Levan Maisashvili (since August 2020)
World Cup best Pool stage 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Mikheil Nariashvili, Guram Gogichashvili, Nika Abuladze, Shalva Mamukashvili, Luka Nioradze, Tengiz Zamtaradze, Beka Gigashvili, Luka Japaridze, Guram Papidze, Lasha Jaiani, Konstantine Mikautadze, Nodar Cheishvili, Vladimer Chachanidze, Beka Saginadze, Mikheil Gachechiladze, Luka Ivanishvili, Beka Gorgadze, Giorgi Tsutskiridze, Tornike Jalagonia
• Backs Gela Aprasidze, Vasil Lobzhanidze, Tengiz Peranidze, Tedo Abzhandadze, Luka Matkava, Demur Tapladze, Aleksandre Todua, Merab Sharikadze (captain), Tornike Kakhoidze, Modebadze Mirian, Akaki Tabutsadze, Davit Niniashvili, Lasha Khmaladze, Giorgi Kveseladze
Much-touted to replace Italy in the Six Nations line-up, Georgia rather missed their cue in November 2018 when the Azzurri prevailed 28-17 in Florence - but the recent form of the Lelos has been far more encouraging. A first success over the Italians was achieved at last in July 2022 in Batumi, a 28-19 victory which prompted a fine run of 11 wins out of 12. The highlight of that sequence was undoubtedly the stunning 13-12 triumph over Pool C rivals Wales in Cardiff last November - and, most recently, the Georgians also led Scotland 6-0 into the interval at Murrayfield in a Rugby World Cup warm-up match before the Scots completed a comfortable comeback win. Georgia have now won the second tier Rugby Europe Championships 12 times in the last 13 editions so will be desperate to use the next few weeks as a springboard to break through the glass ceiling against which they are currently banging their head. The problem is that, in such an open section as this, Fiji will similarly fancy their chances, Wales - while vulnerable - will be out for revenge, and Australia will likely prove too strong.
 Prediction Pool stage

PORTUGALWorld ranking 16
Head coach Patrice Lagisquet (since June 2019)
World Cup best Pool stage 2007
RWC 2019 Failed to qualify
Squad
• Forwards António Machado Santos, David Costa, Diogo Hasse Ferreira, Francisco Fernandes, Francisco Bruno, Anthony Alves, Duarte Diniz, Lionel Campergue, Mike Tadjer, Duarte Torgal, José Madeira, José Maria Rebelo Andrade, Steevy Cerqueira, Martim Belo, Nicolas Martins, Rafael Simoes, Joao Granate, Thibault de Freitas, David Wallis
• Backs Joao Belo, Pedro Lucas, Samuel Marques, Jeronimo Portela, Joris Moura, Jose Lima, Tomas Appleton (captain), Pedro Bettencourt, Rodrigo Marta, Vincent Pinto, Manuel Cardoso Pinto, Raffaelle Storti, Nuno Sousa Guedes, Simao Bento
Portugal were the last team to take their place at this edition of the Rugby World Cup and in fact made it to the tournament in rather fortunate fashion after the expulsion of Spain from qualification for the second RWC in a row. In qualifying, Os Lobos (The Wolves) had finished in fourth place behind the Spanish - but, after their neighbours were found to have fielded an ineligible player, the Portuguese were promoted to third in European qualifying which brought a place in the repechage qualification group. Held over two weeks last November in Dubai, the final place came down to a clutch 82nd-minute penalty by Samuel Marques. That secured a dramatic 16-16 tie against United States - and just a second-ever appearance for Portugal in the finals.
 Prediction Pool stage


POOL D

ENGLANDWorld ranking 8
Head coach Steve Borthwick (since December 2022)
World Cup best Champions 2003
RWC 2019 Runners-up
Squad
• Forwards Ollie Chessum, Dan Cole, Tom Curry, Theo Dan, Ben Earl, Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam, Joe Marler, George Martin, David Ribbans, Bevan Rodd, Kyle Sinckler, Will Stuart, Billy Vunipola, Jack Walker, Jack Willis
• Backs Henry Arundell, Danny Care, Elliot Daly, Owen Farrell (captain), George Ford, Ollie Lawrence, Max Malins, Joe Marchant, Jonny May, Alex Mitchell, Marcus Smith, Freddie Steward, Manu Tuilagi, Ben Youngs
Alarm bells should be reverberating around Rugby Football Union headquarters after England departed for the short journey across the English Channel to their Rugby World Cup base in Pas-de-Calais with the tinny echo of boos from a half-empty Twickenham Stadium still ringing in their ears. The final warm-up match against Fiji was meant to provide a confidence boost ahead the main event - but instead resulted in a first ever England defeat to a Pacific Islands nation. More remarkably still, it was not even that close - and it added to a horrendous run of form, with Steve Borthwick's men having lost on eight occasions out of 13 in the last 12 months. Now, the current malaise affecting English rugby runs far deeper than the head coach - but the former Bath and Saracens lock is hardly an inspirational figure and his squad seems to struggle to learn from its mistakes. Even England's only victory in their last six matches - a 19-17 success against Wales - owed much to a bizarre Welsh collapse from 17-9 up while skipper Owen Farrell was also dismissed for a high tackle. Farrell - who has been sanctioned previously for a similar offence - is banned for the England's first two Rugby World Cup matches against Argentina and Japan, while a slew of injuries also suggests the Pumas are in the box-seat ahead of the opener. Back to that woeful attendance at Twickenham for the send-off against the Flying Fijians - it suggests at least that, for once, England does not expect too much, and it might be that lowered expectations serve this shaken-up group well. After all, it cannot be as bad as the Pool stage knockout which England suffered as hosts in 2015 - can it? Perhaps the fact that the question is even being asked, though, suggests something down the line has gone very, very wrong. 
 Prediction Quarter finals

JAPANWorld ranking 14
Head coach Jamie Joseph (since August 2016)
World Cup best Quarter finals 2019
RWC 2019 Quarter finals
Squad
• Forwards Keita Inagaki, Craig Millar, Sione Halasili, Koo Ji-won, Shinnosuke Kakinaga, Asaeli Ai Valu, Shota Horie, Atsushi Sakate, Kosuke Horikoshi, Jack Cornelsen, Warner Dearns, Amanaki Saumaki, Pieter Labuschagne, Amato Fakatava, Shota Fukui, Kazuki Himeno (captain), Michael Leitch, Ben Gunter, Kanji Shimokawa
• Backs Naoto Saito, Yutaka Nagare, Kenta Fukuda, Lee Seung-sin, Rikiya Matsuda, Jumpei Ogura, Ryoto Nakamura, Tomoki Osada, Dylan Riley, Siosaia Fifita, Semisi Masirewa, Jone Naikabula, Lomano Lemeki, Kotaro Matsushima
It was good while it lasted - and, rather wonderfully, it coincided with Japan hosting the Rugby World Cup four years ago when they reached the quarter finals for the first time. But, undoubtedly, the Cherry Blossoms are now past their peak - and, in fact, head into this edition on the back of a run of just one win and nine defeats from their last 10 Tests. That sequence has included reverses against Samoa (24-22), Fiji (35-12) and, most recently, Italy (42-21) - and, consequently, the team's world ranking has dropped from eighth at the time of the World Cup draw to 14th on the eve of the tournament. Japan's best chance of making it through then is to hope for an indisciplined and generally untidy performance from England or Argentina, either or both of which are eminently possible. With the aforementioned Samoans also in Pool D, though, a more realistic target for Jamie Joseph's men would be to secure third spot and automatic qualification for the 2027 edition in Australia.
 Prediction Pool stage

ARGENTINAWorld ranking 6
Head coach Michael Cheika (since March 2022)
World Cup best Semi finals 2007, 2015
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Mayco Vivas, Francisco Gómez Kodela, Joel Sclavi, Thomas Gallo, Eduardo Bello, Julián Montoya (captain), Agustín Creevy, Ignacio Ruiz, Matías Alemanno, Tomás Lavanini, Guido Petti, Facundo Isa, Pablo Matera, Juan Martín González, Marcos Kremer, Joaquin Oviedo, Pedro Rubiolo, Rodrigo Bruni
• Backs Gonzalo Bertranou, Lautaro Bazán Vélez, Tomás Cubelli, Santiago Carreras, Nicolás Sánchez, Santiago Chocobares, Lucio Cinti, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Matías Moroni, Emiliano Boffelli, Juan Cruz Mallía, Mateo Carreras, Juan Imhoff, Rodrigo Isgró, Martín Bogado
Still criminally underrated by some misguided folk, despite an ever-present Rugby World Cup appearance record and two previous semi finals, Argentina head into the 2023 edition again brimming with optimism. After all, Los Pumas avoided their customary wooden spoon status in the Rugby Championship this year by virtue a 34-31 away victory in Sydney over an Australian side which features in the same side of the draw in France. If anything, though, it was the Argentines' stunning 2022 form which turned more than a few heads. True, points difference meant that edition of the Rugby Championship ended in a sixth consecutive bottom-placed finish - but Michael Cheika's men created history during the competition by beating New Zealand away for the first time with a 25-18 win in Christchurch. That had followed hard on the heels of a 48-17 thumping of Australia in San Juan and a 2-1 home series victory over Scotland - and so there can be no doubt that skipper Julian Montoya will lead an extremely competitive side this autumn. Certainly, the South Americans face fewer questions heading into the tournament than their main Pool D rivals - while none of their potential quarter final opponents from Pool C will cause sleepless nights in Buenos Aires.
 Prediction Semi finals

SAMOAWorld ranking 12
Head coach Seilala Mapusua (since August 2020)
World Cup best Quarter finals 1991, 1995
RWC 2019 Pool stage
Squad
• Forwards Michael Alaalatoa (co-captain), Brian Alainu’u’ese, Paul Alo-Emile, So’otala Fa’aso’o, Miracle Fai’ilagi, Charlie Faumuina, Seilala Lam, Jordan Lay, James Lay, Fritz Lee, Steven Luatua, Sama Malolo, Theodore McFarland, Alamanda Motuga, Luteru Tolai, Chris Vui (co-captain), Taleni Seu, Sam Slade, Jordan Taufua
• Backs Nigel Ah Wong, Ereatara Sotiaki Enari, Ed Fidow, Neria Foma’i, Ben Lam, Christian Leali’ifano, Alai D’Angelo Leuila, Tumua Manu, Melani Matavao, Duncan Paia’aua, Ulupano Junior Seuteni, Lima Sopoaga, Jonathan Taumateine, Danny Toala
Someone at Rugby Samoa has been searching frantically through family trees as the Pacific islanders seek to reprise their 1990s heydey during which they reached the quarter finals in successive Rugby World Cup finals on debut in 1991 and in 1995. The arrival of professionalism in the sport put teams like Samoa - who have never been blessed with the greatest of resources - on the back-foot and results unsurprisingly declined. Now, though, another potentially significant shift announced by the World Rugby Union in November 2021 has favoured Manu Samoa. The decision allows players with credible links to switch allegiance to another Test side, provided that either they, a parent or a grandparent were born in the country they wish to play for. Unlike Tonga, who have also taken advantage of the new ruling, Seilala Mapusua's men feature in Pool D on the kinder side of the draw with Japan looking particularly vulnerable during the build-up to the tournament. A repeat of the 24-22 success scored over the Cherry Blossoms in the Pacific Nations Cup in July would leave Samoa just needing an error-strewn performance from England or Argentina to be in with a shout - and, with as many as 20 New Zealand-born players selected in the Manu Samoa squad, it cannot be ruled out entirely. 
 Prediction Pool stage

CHILEWorld ranking 22
Head coach Pablo Lemoine (since August 2018)
World Cup best Never previously qualified
RWC 2019 Failed to qualify
Squad
• Forwards Javier Carrasco, Salvador Lues, Matías Dittus, Iñaki Gurruchaga, Esteban Inostroza, Vittorio Lastra, Augusto Bohme, Tomás Dussaillant, Diego Escobar, Javier Eissmann, Pablo Huete, Santiago Pedrero, Augusto Sarmiento, Alfonso Escobar, Raimundo Martínez, Thomas Orchard, Clemente Saavedra, Martín Sigren (captain), Ignacio Silva
• Backs Lukas Carvallo, Nicolás Herreros, Marcelo Torrealba, Benjamín Videla, Rodrigo Fernández, Santiago Videla, Pablo Casas, Matías Garafulic, José Ignacio Larenas, Domingo Saavedra, Franco Velarde, Nicolás Garafulic, Iñaki Ayarza, Francisco Urroz
Debutants Chile are the only team to be making their Rugby World Cup bow at this edition of the tournament after making it through Americas qualifying by squeezing out United States by an aggregate score of 52-51 in two absolute thrillers. Nevertheless, this first appearance on the big stage is actually long-awaited - after all, the sport of rugby has been played in Chile for over a century - and, while it will always play second-fiddle to association football, the significant British expat community and descendants of British immigrants will be determined to ensure this is not just a purple patch. Certainly, the South American derby against Argentina in Nantes on 30 September promises to be a feisty affair - but, with the Argentines having won all 39 of their previous meetings dating back to 1936, that match and the next few weeks as a whole must be treated as a learning experience by Los Cóndores.
 Prediction Pool stage

Tuesday, 15 August 2023

Premier League preview: Manchester City go for four in a row

PREMIER LEAGUE CLUB-BY-CLUB PREVIEW
2023-2024

▪️ ARSENAL @Arsenal
Last season 2nd FA Cup Fourth round League Cup Third round Europa League Last 16
Last major trophy FA Cup 2020
Ownership Kroenke Sports & Entertainment (USA)
Head coach Mikel Arteta (since December 2019)
New signings Kai Havertz, Jurrien Timber, Declan Rice, David Raya*
Bottlers or simply beaten by a better team? The answer in this case is probably a bit of both. After all, Arsenal led the league for a remarkable 284 days and gained a club-record haul of 84 points last season, 28 more than they gained in 2019-20 during which head coach Mikel Arteta returned to the Emirates in his current role. Refreshingly, the title charge was also led with youthful vigour - but, ultimately, it proved futile in the face of the behemoth that is Manchester City. Disappointingly, though, the Gunners' end-of-season dip began with successive draws against struggling West Ham United and Southampton ahead of a decisive defeat at Nottingham Forest - and even just slightly better performances in these matches might have resulted in Arsenal celebrating a first Premier League title in 19 years. Instead, Arteta hardly helped his young bucks with his incessant stalking of the touchline and haranguing of the the match officials - and he should consider perhaps a cooler approach may pay more dividends in the future. At least, the Spaniard has a decent base now from which to work - and, even at the startling price of £105 million, the addition of Declan Rice to this squad is a smart move. David Raya, meanwhile, will provide some much-needed competition between the sticks for Aaron Ramsdale - but the £65 million outlay on Kai Havertz looks like needless excess when an out-and-out striker to ease the burden on Gabriel Jesus for goals is what really is required.
Prediction [3rd]

▪️ ASTON VILLA @AVFCOfficial
Last season 7th FA Cup Third round League Cup Third round
Last major trophy League Cup 1996
Ownership Nasser Sawiris (EGY) and Wes Edens (USA)
Head coach Unai Emery (since November 2022)
New signings Youri Tielemans, Pau Torres, Moussa Diaby
Aston Villa must still be wondering what might have been. Unai Emery arrived on 1 November, by which time the Villans languished down in 16th with only 12 points from as many games, as the disappointing 11-month Steven Gerrard era badly petered out. Emery transformed Villa, winning 15 of the remaining 26 matches - and, while a top four and even a top six finish was beyond his side, it was still a good enough record to bring back European football to the Second City for the first time since 2010. True, the Europa Conference League is the third-tier UEFA prize, but Holte Enders only need to ask supporters of their claret-and-blue counterparts West Ham United about the value of the competition. Better still, Emery has been something of a European trophy specialist having won the Europa League on four occasions, including three-in-a-row with Sevilla between 2014 and 2016. Villa, though, will also want a better start and therefore less topsy-turvy season in the league - so have reinforced their squad with the signings of centre-back Pau Torres and midfielder Youri Tielemans. More recently, the arrival of winger Moussa Diaby adds yet another element to an attack which again should feature strong contributions from Philippe Coutinho and John McGinn. However, that still leaves a concern about the centre-forward position where the hot-and-cold Ollie Watkins will continue to plough a lone furrow. 
Prediction [7th]

▪️ BOURNEMOUTH @afcbournemouth
Last season 15th FA Cup Third round League Cup Fourth round
Last major trophy None
Ownership Bill Foley (USA)
Head coach Andoni Iraola (since June 2023)
New signings Justin Kluivert, Hamed Traore, Romain Faivre, Milos Kerkez, Alex Scott, Max Aarons, Ionut Radu*
Sometimes clubs seem intent on self-destruction and Bournemouth made the extremely curious move of dumping manager Gary O'Neil shortly after the end of last season. This was despite O'Neil's fine achievement of keeping the Cherries quite comfortably out of the worst of the relegation scrap when all and sundry - even doom-monger predecessor Scott Parker - had expected the team to finish in the bottom three. Fresh-faced Andoni Iraola has arrived from Rayo Vallecano making him the third Basque coach in the Premier League this season alongside Mikel Arteta and Unai Emery. Notably, though, the others took a bit of time to impress their philosophy on their squads - and, if Bournemouth quickly get dragged into the relegation dogfight, that sort of window will not be likely afforded to Iraola. More happily, this coming season will see the full return on the pitch of silky winger David Brooks following his full recovery from stage two Hodgkin lymphoma which has kept him out since the shock diagnosis in October 2021. Nevertheless, Bournemouth still look short on goals and the loss of midfielder Jefferson Lerma to Crystal Palace also only further exposes an already-leaky defence.
Prediction [
18th]


▪️ BRENTFORD @BrentfordFC
Last season 9th FA Cup Third round League Cup Third round
Last major trophy None
Ownership Matthew Benham (ENG)
Head coach Thomas Frank (since October 2018)
New signings Mark Flekken, Ethan Brierley, Kevin Schade, Romeo Beckham, Kim Ji-soo, Nathan Collins, Erion Zabeli, Ethan Laidlaw
Brentford were the best of the west in London last season having spent decades being derided by local rivals Chelsea, Fulham and Queens Park Rangers. The Bees' ninth-placed finish was the first time since the 1937-38 season in which they secured a place in the top half of the top flight and the first time since 1938-39 that they finished above all of their neighbours, having spent the vast majority of the intervening 84 years in the lower two tiers of the English league pyramid. By any measure then, this current Brentford vintage is among the best in the club's history - but replicating that form in the coming campaign will be extremely difficult with top marksman 20-goal Ivan Toney banned until 16 January after admitting to multiple breaches of gambling rules. The additional permanent loss of reliable goalkeeper David Raya to Arsenal is another significant blow - though the likes of Ben Mee, Ethan Pinnock, Christian Norgaard, Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo still give coach Thomas Frank plenty with which to work. Frank himself has impressed with a solid tactical framework which brought great rewards in 2022-23: a league double over treble-winners Manchester City, four points off both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea, and stunning wins against Manchester United and Liverpool at home.
Prediction [
13th]


▪️ BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION @OfficialBHAFC
Last season 6th FA Cup Semi finals League Cup Fourth round
Last major trophy None
Ownership Tony Bloom (ENG)
Head coach Roberto De Zerbi (since September 2022)
New signings Joao Pedro, Mahmoud Dahoud, James Milner, Bart Verbruggen, Igor Julio
Brighton and Hove Albion continue to ride the crest of a wave with a sixth-placed finish last season bringing European football to this part of the south coast for the first time ever. The Seagulls have got used to losing their top talent over the years so they adeptly dealt with the shockwaves caused by the departure of head coach Graham Potter to Chelsea last September. If anything, his replacement Roberto De Zerbi released the shackles and enabled an enterprising midfield featuring Alexis MacAllister, Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma to play to their full potential as Brighton also reached the FA Cup semi finals. However, in a really rather irksome summer for Seagulls supporters, the drip-drip of departures has continued with World Cup winner MacAllister leaving for Liverpool, and goalkeeper Robert Sanchez and midfielder Moises Caicedo both now at Stamford Bridge. Former head coach Potter can attest that the grass is not always greener in the bright lights of the capital - but eventually the one-way traffic out of the Amex Stadium will also begin to take its toll on Brighton, especially with the demand caused by the extra fixtures in this coming season.
Prediction [8th]

▪️ BURNLEY @BurnleyOfficial
Last season 1st in Championship (promoted) FA Cup Quarter finals League Cup Fourth round
Last major trophy First Division 1959-60
Ownership Alan Pace (USA)
Head coach Vincent Kompany (since June 2022)
New signings Dara O'Shea, Lawrence Vigouroux, Jordan Beyer, Michael Obafemi, Zeki Amdouni, James Trafford, Nathan Redmond, Luca Koleosho, Sander Berge, Wilson Odobert, Jacob Bruun Larsen*
Burnley are back in the Premier League - and back with a fresh look as head coach Vincent Kompany leads a football revolution in this part of East Lancashire. The Clarets won only one of their first five league games last season to give little indication of their complete dominance of the Championship thereafter. Promoted on Easter Monday after beating second-placed Sheffield United, the title was won a little later at the Ewood Park ground of their great rivals - and Kompany's men ended the season with 101 points and a whole new identity. Gone was the sit-deep tactic of the Sean Dyche era and in came a commitment to a Pep Guardiola-style plan of possession football which was far too good for their Championship opponents. Certainly it will not be anywhere near as easy in the Premier League for Burnley with warning having already been served when they stuck to their principles against Manchester City in an FA Cup quarter final and promptly lost 6-0. It would be no surprise if the Clarets' open style of play brings about a few more thrashings in 2023-24 and Man City is in fact the opening fixture of the whole season. As long as Kompany retains faith in his philosophy and Burnley retain faith in the Belgian, though, there are enough points to be gained at Turf Moor to ensure survival in this coming season.
Prediction [
16th]


▪️ CHELSEA @ChelseaFC
Last season 12th FA Cup Third round League Cup Third round Champions League Quarter finals
Last major trophy Champions League 2021
Ownership Todd Boehly, Clearlake Capital (USA)
Head coach Mauricio Pochettino (since May 2023)
New signings Nicolas Jackson, Christopher Nkunku, Diego Moreira, Angelo Gabriel, Lesley Ugochukwu, Axel Disasi, Robert Sanchez, Moises Caicedo
Coming off the back of a train wreck of a season which ended with a first finish in the bottom half since 1995-96, the lowest goals total since the relegation campaign 99 years previously, and the second-lowest ever points total in the three-points era, new head coach Mauricio Pochettino arrived at Stamford Bridge expecting a big rebuild job. Indeed, at one stage, the challenge looked as if it was going to be even tougher with the Blues appearing to be in danger of breaching Premier League Financial Fair Play rules after being fined £8.6 million last month by UEFA for providing incomplete financial information. That risk has not gone away apparently but it has not stopped a remarkable splurge of £284 million on seven players including a British record £115 million on Moses Caicedo from Brighton & Hove Albion. In fairness, £220 million has been recouped so far in sales, and a summer revolving door is always a true sign of a new coach trying to build a squad to match his own style. But, while Pochettino will surely be a better fit than either of Thomas Tuchel's successors in 2022-23, question marks remain from his tenure across London at Tottenham Hotspur about whether, while on English soil, the Argentinian has any sort of golden touch when it comes to trophies. 
Prediction [6th]

▪️ CRYSTAL PALACE @CPFC
Last season 11th FA Cup Third round League Cup Third round
Last major trophy None
Ownership John Textor (USA), David Blitzer (USA), Josh Harris (USA), Steve Parish (ENG)
Head coach Roy Hodgson (since March 2023)
New signings Jefferson Lerma, Matheus Franca
Roy Hodgson should probably be in a recliner chair, sat back with his feet up enjoying a glass of his favourite tipple instead of taking on another season of high-octane Premier League. Clearly, though, the 76-year-old either gets under his wife's feet too much if he stays at home for too long or he simply cannot give up the game. In fairness, the former England boss steadied a rocking ship on his return to Selhurst Park in March and secured a seventh successive finish for the Eagles between 11th and 14th. The next obvious step would be for these mid-table settlers to break the glass ceiling preventing a top half finish - and this young, committed squad will undoubtedly give it a good try. Several players such as Ebere Ezi, Tyrick Mitchell, Michael Olise and Marc Guehi have been recruited locally and connect well with the fans in the Holmesdale End. But only Christian Benteke in 2016-17 has hit more than 10 league goals in a season for Palace since their promotion in 2013, a fact which should weigh heavily on the shoulders of current forwards Odsonne Edouard and Jean-Philippe Mateta. 
Prediction [12th] 

▪️ EVERTON @Everton
Last season 17th FA Cup Third round League Cup Third round 
Last major trophy FA Cup 1995 
Ownership Farhad Moshiri (IRN) 
Head coach Sean Dyche (since January 2023) 
New signings Ashley Young, Youssef Chermiti, Arnaut Danjuma*, Jack Harrison*
Everton escaped again - just - but the looming presence of the relegation trapdoor drew closer than it has been since their famous comeback against Wimbledon on the last day of the 1993-94 season. Indeed, at the half time whistle on the last day of 2022-23, the Toffees were being held 0-0 by Bournemouth and going down as Leicester City had taken the lead against West Ham United - but, although the Foxes won, Abdoulaye Doucoure scored a precious winner for the Merseysiders to make it 70 consecutive top flight seasons in 2023-24. It was a fourth 1-0 win under Sean Dyche who only replaced the near-disastrous Frank Lampard in January and quickly accepted the attacking limitations of a team spearheaded by the injury-prone Dominic Calvin-Lewin. Those financial restrictions still remain heading into the new campaign with new arrivals limited to a teenage Portuguese striker Youssef Chermiti and a 38-year-old Ashley Young who now belies nominative determinism. Expect then for Dyche again to continue keeping it tight in his tactical set-up and target certain fixtures to achieve more of those single-goal wins at Goodison Park. For sure, it does not exactly sound thrill-a-minute stuff but there is no better battler out there than the gravel-voiced Dyche - and, ahead of the planned move next summer to a new stadium in the Liverpool docks area, the alternative is barely worth thinking about. 
Prediction [14th] 

▪️ FULHAM @FulhamFC 
Last season 10th FA Cup Quarter finals League Cup Second round 
Last major trophy None 
Ownership Shahid Khan (USA) 
Head coach Marco Silva (since July 2021) 
New signings Raul Jiminez, Calvin Bassey, Adama Traore 
Fulham have found their players in high demand this summer after impressively halting their recent yo-yo existence last season by finishing in a extremely creditable 10th position. So far though, the Cottagers are yet to blink with Serbian striker Aleksandar Mitrovic remaining in Marco Silva's squad - and available for selection - despite strong interest being shown in him from a club in the insurgent Saudi Pro League. Talented midfielder Joao Palhinha had also been subject to speculation before he dislocated his shoulder in the opening half of Fulham's first pre-season match - and this injury as well as his steep £90 million valuation will probably keep the Portuguese plying his trade on the banks of the Thames for another campaign at least. Off the pitch, the much-derided neutral section at Craven Cottage has been thankfully abolished while the ambitious four-year development of the Riverside Stand is finally almost completed. It should be pointed out that it is not as if the project has not been subject to spiralling costs, although billionaire owner Shahid Khan has so far seemingly been willing to foot the bill - even to the detriment of his bank balance. For now then, while their benefactor remains as generous as he is, Fulham appear to be fine. However, their forthcoming financial positioning will be just as closely-watched by rival clubs as the on-field performance of any potential purchases. 
Prediction [9th] 

▪️ LIVERPOOL @LFC 
Last season 5th FA Cup Fourth round League Cup Fourth round Champions League Last 16 
Last major trophy FA Cup 2022 
Ownership Fenway Sports Group (USA) 
Head coach Jürgen Klopp (since October 2015) 
New signings Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai 
Runners-up, champions, third, runners-up, and then only fifth and out of the Champions League places for the first time in seven years - for sure, last season was an unexpected bump in the road for Liverpool. Yet, seasoned observers could see it happening - the loss of Sadio Mane to Bayern Munich left the link between the midfield and the prodigious talent of Mo Salah in attack broken, with a central midfield of inexperienced Harvey Elliott and already-spent Jordan Henderson unable to help out the still-adapting Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz anywhere near effectively enough. Is it any wonder it took a seven-match winning run towards the close of the season for the Reds to get anywhere near to the top four, an objective in which they still failed? Certainly then, the midfield signings of both Alexis Mac Allister and  Dominik Szoboszlai from RB Leipzig for a combined £95 million are what has been needed for Anfield to find its full voice again, with Hungarian talent Szoboszlai in particular capable of providing the creative spark which has been sorely missing from the Reds attack. Defensively too, though, Liverpool simply must improve on the 47 goals conceded in 2022-23, their worst return on this metric since the 2015-16 season in which they finished in eighth. If not, head coach Jurgen Klopp will not see his legendary status at the club end but could have a contract which runs until 2026 cut short. Klopp knows time is now for Liverpool once again to flex their muscles on the field. 
Prediction [5th] 

▪️ LUTON TOWN @LutonTown 
Last season 3rd in the Championship (promoted) FA Cup Fourth Round League Cup First round 
Last major trophy League Cup 1988 
Ownership Luton Town Supporters Trust (ENG) 
Head coach Rob Edwards (since November 2022) 
New signings Chiedozie Ogbene, Mads Andersen, Tahith Chong, Marvelous Nakamba, Ryan Giles, Thomas Kaminski, Ross Barkley, Jacob Brown 
In the most dramatic comeback since Lazarus, Luton Town have returned the top flight after an absence of 31 years, thereby becoming the 51st team to have played in the Premier League. Having only just missed out on the inaugural season after relegation from the First Division in 1992, the Bedfordshire outfit have since been to hell and back. A spell of bouncing around the Football League divisions ended in dramatic fashion with three consecutive demotions from the Championship to the Football Conference between 2006-07 and 2008-09, and in both of the latter two seasons, the Hatters were hit with hefty points deductions. It is an achievement in itself then that Luton are back among the elite - although they really should try to enjoy it because, quite frankly, it probably is not going to be a long visit. After all, most of the money earned from the coming campaign will go towards the construction of their new Power Court stadium with the move from the Edwardian-era Kenilworth Road ground expected in 2026. That leaves little money to bring the current squad up to scratch - so, while Luton bring the novelty for away fans of a visit to the rather odd Oak Stand terrace entrance, it would be a major surprise if coach Rob Edwards can also produce a team capable of competing at the top level consistently enough for survival. 
Prediction [19th] 

▪️ MANCHESTER CITY @ManCity 
Last season Champions FA Cup Winners League Cup Quarter finals Champions League Winners 
Last major trophy Champions League 2023 
Ownership Abu Dhabi United Group (UAE) 
Head coach Pep Guardiola (since July 2016) 
New signings Mateo Kovacic, Josko Gvardiol 
Nobody does it better than Pep Guardiola whose Manchester City side last time out produced a season for the ages, winning the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble - a feat achieved only once before, by Manchester United in 1999. It ended an agonising wait for Guardiola who had wanted in particular to get his hands back on the European Cup ever since arriving at the Etihad Stadium in July 2016. But, if anything, it was their third consecutive Premier League crown which was the most impressive feat, given that the Blues at one stage trailed surprise challengers Arsenal by eight points as late as 1 April. By then, though, Manchester City had began a customary late surge of 12 successive league wins to overhaul the Gunners, a sequence which included a 4-1 thumping of Mikel Arteta's men. Of course, much of this was achieved through the stunning strike-rate of Erling Haaland who enjoyed a record-breaking debut season in England, netting 36 times in the league and 52 in all competitions. Rival clubs can only hope the Norwegian suffers a significant drop-off in form - although, even then, the likes of Ilkay Gundogan, Phil Foden and World Cup winner Julian Alvarez will invariably chip in. The defence, also already strong, has been further strengthened by the £77 million signing of Croatian centre-back Josko Gvardiol - and so, for Manchester City, further record-breaking glory awaits: no team has ever won the English league title four times in a row. 
Prediction [Champions] 

▪️ MANCHESTER UNITED @ManUtd 
Last season 3rd FA Cup Runners-up League Cup Winners Europa League Quarter finals 
Last major trophy League Cup 2023 
Ownership Joel Glazer and Avram Glazer (USA) 
Head coach Erik ten Hag (since May 2022) 
New signings Mason Mount, Andre Onana, Rasmus Hojlund, Jonny Evans 
Those nasty Glazers have been at it again, shelling out another £162 million on Mason Mount, Andre Onana and Rasmus Hojlund this summer to bring their total outlay in just 16 months with Erik ten Hag to over £400 million on transfer fees alone. Not that this will stop the most spoiled-acting fans in the Premier League from bringing out their yellow-and-green scarves to wear with the replica shirt newly-bought from the Old Trafford megastore at the first sign of any dropped points. On the field, ten Hag had an encouraging first term at the helm as the Red Devils won the League Cup for a first trophy success for six years, as well as finishing third. But, away at their two main rivals, Manchester United were hit for six by Manchester City and, in an incredible collapse, seven without reply by Liverpool at Anfield. At the other end of the pitch, the Dutchman's team notably scored the least goals of the teams in the top six although Marcus Rashford enjoyed a rich vein of form in the New Year and ended up with a career-best 30 goals in all competitions. New Danish forward Hojlund, even at the tender age of 20, should provide better scoring support for Rashford than Wout Weghorst or Anthony Elanga ever did - while Onana would have to struggle massively to fail to be a safer pair of hands or show better footwork than David De Gea has over the last few years. Mount is a curious signing, though - a Chelsea academy product, the 24-year-old himself must be working on the theory of a change being as good as a rest having seemed to have lost all confidence at Stamford Bridge. 
Prediction [2nd] 

▪️ NEWCASTLE UNITED @NUFC 
Last season 4th FA Cup Third round League Cup Runners-up 
Last major trophy UEFA (Fairs) Cup 1969 
Ownership Public Investment Fund (KSA) 
Head coach Eddie Howe (since November 2021) 
New signings Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes, Tino Livramento 
From no-hopers to Champions League dreamers, Newcastle United quickly made up for the time lost during the insipid Mike Ashley reign to finish in the Premier League top four for the first time in 20 years. Certainly then, this project is ahead of schedule and a consequence of head coach Eddie Howe - like his predecessors Kevin Keegan and Sir Bobby Robson - astutely harnessing the atmosphere at St James Park. By the end of the season, Howe had restored the place into a fortress with big wins in the run-in against Manchester United (2-0), Brighton & Hove Albion (4-1) and, between those two games, a 6-1 thumping of Tottenham Hotspur in which the Magpies led 5-0 inside 21 minutes. It was a showing which made something of a mockery of the unfair reputation for cynical time-wasting tactics with which Newcastle had been tarnished after a battling 0-0 draw away at league leaders Arsenal in January. While the Magpies were no angels at the Emirates, it was equally no worse than what had been seen many times before - and a fairer assessment would be to acknowledge that Howe is building a team of excitement young talent. Players brought in such as Bruno Guimaraes, Sven Botman, Alexander Isak, and Anthony Gordon - as well as summer additions Sandro Tonali, Tino Livramento and Harvey Barnes - are all 25 or younger and have the potential to get even better. For sure, there has been significant money put into the club by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund - but it was much-needed after Ashley's neglect and still compares favourably with the likes of Chelsea, Man United and Liverpool. Perhaps still more new faces would have been expected by now given the extra fixtures in this campaign, but Newcastle only lost five times in the league last season and so can expect to remain extremely competitive under the intense tutelage of Howe. Indeed, in the words of Sam Fender, who played two sold out gigs at St James during the summer, it feels like on Tyneside as if the Geordies are only getting started.
Prediction [4th] 

▪️ NOTTINGHAM FOREST @NFFC 
Last season 16th FA Cup Third round League Cup Semi finals 
Last major trophy League Cup 1990 
Ownership Evangelos Marinakis (GRE) 
Head coach Steve Cooper (since September 2021) 
New signings Chris Wood, Ola Aina, Anthony Elanga, Matt Turner 
Nottingham Forest took an unconventional route to safety in 2022-23, basically opting to throw as many darts as possible in the hope that enough would hit bullseye. The Tricky Trees effectively brought in a whole new squad with 28 first-team signings across the season - and certainly, it proved a risky strategy as the squad struggled to gel with Forest making the slowest of starts to prop up the table in the autumn. Then, just as results had started to pick up after Christmas, a second tranche of arrivals appeared to upset everything again as Steve Cooper's men picked up just three draws from 11 matches between February and April. Ultimately, the faith shown in Cooper by the owner, shipping magnate Evangelos Marinakis, helped to keep Forest afloat with the team belatedly responding to the wonderful atmosphere produced by the City Ground crowd throughout the whole campaign to beat Brighton & Hove Albion, Southampton and Arsenal in the last three home games. Activity in the transfer market has been far less frantic this summer as Cooper attempts to use survival as a base from which to build a far more settled squad. That does mean, though, that the head coach is arguably under more pressure now with any repeat of those winless runs from last season unlikely to be as easily tolerated by the often ruthless Marinakis this time around. No doubt then, whatever happens over the next 10 months on the banks of the Trent, it will not be a quiet campaign. 
Prediction [15th] 

▪️ SHEFFIELD UNITED @SheffieldUnited 
Last season 2nd in Championship (promoted) FA Cup Semi finals League Cup First round 
Last major trophy FA Cup 1925 
Ownership Prince Abdullah Bin Mosaad Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (KSA) 
Head coach Paul Heckingbottom (since November 2021) 
New signings Anis Slimane, Benie Traore, Auston Trusty, Vinicius Souza, Gustavo Hamer, Yasser Larouci* 
Sheffield United kept their sojourn in the second tier down to just two years as head coach Paul Heckingbottom held off the Championship chasing pack at arms length. This coming campaign looks set to be a far less comfortable ride as the Blades continue to feel the repercussions of spending beyond their means on their last visit to the top flight. Straight-taking Yorkshireman Heckingbottom finds himself with a less than straightforward task ahead and his team's best chance really is to hope to carry through the momentum gained from promotion to put some early points on the board. Even that will not be easy if Sheffield United reprise the ineffective approach of playing Ollie McBurnie on his own up front. Furthermore, the loss of the spectacular Senegalese forward Ilman Ndaiye to his boyhood club Marseille and the versatile Norwegian Sander Berge to rivals Burnley shortly before the start of the season really rather thumps home the reality of the situation in which the Blades find themselves. 
Prediction [20th] 

▪️ TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @SpursOfficial 
Last season 8th FA Cup Fifth round League Cup Third round Champions League Last 16 
Last major trophy League Cup 2008 
Ownership ENIC International Limited (ENG) 
Head coach Ange Postecoglou (since June 2023) 
New signings Dejan Kulusevski, Guglielmo Vicario, James Maddison, Pedro Porro, Manor Solomon, Ashley Phillips, Micky van de Ven, Alejo Veliz 
Tottenham Hotspur find themselves almost at ground zero with new boss Ange Postecoglu ahead of this season. The former Celtic boss needs to build a whole new team structure and philosophy following the pathetic collapse in the run-in of 2022-23 and the long-awaited departure of Harry Kane this summer. True, the Aussie head coach's signing of James Maddison from relegated Leicester City is an impressive move considering the complete absence of European football on offer at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. But the loss of Kane will be especially keenly felt when a new-look attack inevitably fails to bail out a still wretched defence like the record England goalscorer has done singlehandedly so many times before. Spurs conceded a mammoth 63 goals last season, six more than 17th-placed Everton and infamously five in the first 21 minutes of the match against Newcastle United at St James Park in April. There is no doubt about it then - with problems at both ends of the pitch, this team actually requires a huge rebuilding job even just to regain a European spot. 
Prediction [11th] 

▪️ WEST HAM UNITED @WestHam 
Last season 14th FA Cup Fifth round League Cup Third round Conference League Winners 
Last major trophy Europa Conference League 2023 
Ownership David Sullivan (WAL) and Daniel Kretinsky (CZE) 
Head coach David Moyes (since December 2019) 
New signings Edson Alvarez, James Ward-Prowse 
This should have been something akin to a summer of love for West Ham United. After all, the east Londoners won their first major trophy for 43 years and first European honour since the late great Sir Bobby Moore was in his heydey. Instead, the Hammers have lost their best player Declan Rice to Arsenal while the transfer window has turned into a proper power-struggle between head coach David Moyes and the club's new technical coach Tim Steidten. Until Thursday, West Ham had brought in absolutely no first team players and the odds on Moyes being the next manager to leave his job were being cut dramatically. However, in the week running up to the new season, Edson Alvarez has arrived at the London Stadium from Ajax Amsterdam while deals for both of Moyes's favoured signings Harry Maguire and James Ward-Prowse have been agreed in principle with Manchester United and Southampton respectively. The former Red Devils boss Moyes appears to have now won this particular clash then but the pressure really is on the Scot to improve significantly on last season which, outside of the Europa Conference League run, was pretty poor. West Ham lost more than half their league matches and were officially in relegation trouble as late as 20 May. The subsequent internal tug-of-war has left the Hammers playing catch-up - but, while there is easily enough about the squad to stay out of big trouble, the delay in getting their targets identified will likely lead to another underwhelming campaign. 
Prediction [10th] 

▪️ WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS @Wolves 
Last season 13th FA Cup Third round League Cup Quarter finals 
Last major trophy League Cup 1980 
Ownership Fosun International (CHN) 
Head coach Gary O'Neil (since August 2023) 
New signings Matheus Cunha, Boubacar Traore, Tom King, Matt Doherty 
Troubled Wolverhampton Wanderers have had an appropriately turbulent summer with head coach Julen Lopetegui leaving the club less than a week before their season kicks off after he publicly expressed frustration at his lack of transfer funds on a podcast. At least, the Spaniard has been swiftly replaced with the former Bournemouth manager Gary O'Neil coming in - but the new man joins a club which is heading into the new season having endured their toughest Premier League campaign last year since their return to the top flight in 2018-19. The Old Gold totalled only 41 points and scored a measly 31 goals across the 38 league games - and the Midlanders problems finding the net are nothing new and a secret to no one. Eventually last season, it was not even as if their usually more reliable defence could hold their own with five goals and six goals shipped at Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion without reply during the run-in. Worse still, any sort of prospect of improvement any time soon has been dashed by a lack of money despite the departure of star midfielder Ruben Neves to Al-Hilal in Saudi Arabia for a fee of £47 million. O'Neil, of course, does not have too look far back for experience of proving the doubters wrong having done exactly that at Bournemouth last season - but there is no doubt that this is another really tough assignment for the 40-year-old. 
Prediction [17th]

Tuesday, 1 August 2023

Broad signs off in style as Ashes series ends drawn

STUART BROAD produced a picture-book ending to his cricket career by taking the last two Australian wickets as England won the fifth Test to draw a thrilling Ashes series.

Broad, in fact, became the only cricketer in Test history to score a six from his final delivery with the bat and take a wicket with his very last ball.

Alex Carey was Broad's final victim edging behind a classic delivery shortly after Todd Murphy had done similarly, as Australia fell 50 runs short of their target.

Such a conclusion to Broad's career came as no great surprise really.

The 37-year-old sits proudly in fifth place on the list of all-time leading Test wicket-takers with 604 scalps.

But, much more than that, Broad particularly seemed to love singlehandedly winning matches by getting his wickets in great big bunches.

From his 6-17 at the Wanderers in Johannesburg to dismiss South Africa for 83 in 2016 to his 5-5 against India at Trent Bridge in 2011 in a spell which included a hat-trick, Broad knew almost instinctively when to pick his moment.

Most of all, though, Broad loved to bowl at the Aussies - and his 6-22 at Chester-le-Street in 2013 was merely an aperitif for what followed at his home ground two years later.

On a beautiful bright August morning at Trent Bridge, Broad simply destroyed Australia, taking 8-15 having at one stage enjoyed figures of 5-6.

With the Baggy Greens 2-1 down and 60 all out before lunch on the first day of the fourth Test, he had effectively decided the course of the Ashes.

This time at the Oval, it was not quite one of those great big bunches as the two wickets served to end an afternoon of frustration - but it was really no surprise that they came together to finish the match.

Annoyingly, Australia had already retained the Ashes urn after preserving their 2-1 lead at Old Trafford where downpours allowed for only 30 overs to be bowled on the last two days.

Defeat in south London, though, leaves the Aussies still without an outright series win on English soil since 2001.

Back then, 22 years ago, Australia remained in the midst of an utterly dominant period as they won eight consecutive Ashes series - four at home and four away - between 1989 and 2003.

Indeed, the 4-1 evisceration of England by Steve Waugh's side in 2001 was perhaps the purest demonstration of their complete supremacy - and only the exploits of Mark Butcher prevented England from suffering the ignominy of a home whitewash.

By contrast, this time, Australia have been really rather stealthy in taking home the urn.

After all, England scored more runs than their opponents by a margin of 3,079 to 3,010, and also took 93 Australian wickets compared to the tourists' tally of 85.

The top run-scorer in the series might have been an Aussie - Usman Khawaja - who adapted better to English conditions than he has in the past to rack up an aggregate of 496 runs at an average of 49.60.

But the only other three batsmen to top 400 runs in the series were all English as Zak Crawley (480 runs at 53.33) enjoyed his best spell so far in an England shirt alongside Joe Root (412 at 51.50) and Ben Stokes (405 at 45.00).

The top wicket-taker was also an Australian as Mitchell Starc's 8-182 at the Oval lifted him above Broad with 23 scalps to 22.

Ultimately, though, England more than competed in this facet too as the combined totals of Chris Woakes (19) and Mark Wood (14) fell just one short of matching Pat Cummins (18) and Josh Hazlewood (16), despite the Englishmen playing fewer matches.

Certainly then, this has been a series decided by extremely fine margins - and the whole contest perhaps even came down to Stokes's declaration on 393-8 towards the end of the first day of the first Test at Edgbaston.

Root stood tall on 118 not out but was not allowed to continue as Stokes sought quick wickets at the end of Day One which never came.

Eventually, England had to work hard on Day Two just to dismiss Australia for 386, a meagre lead of seven runs heading into the second innings. Then, in tough batting conditions, the hosts were all out for 273.

It was not a straightforward chase by any measure - and, at 227-8, it actually looked as if Australia would fall short of their target of 281.

But steely Aussie skipper Cummins produced an assured knock of 44 not out to leave his counterpart Stokes surely ruing his rather reckless first-day declaration.

The second Test at Lord's was a little more clear-cut as Australia made the most of their lead of 91 on first innings to prevail by 43 runs despite a gallant ton from Stokes.

Those are the bare facts of that match - but the Test will be probably best remembered for the incident on the fifth day which, remarkably, served to riled up the most genteel crowd in world cricket.

Wicketkeeper Carey had noticed his opposite number Jonny Bairstow walking out of his crease after balls which he had left - so, when the Yorkshireman did just that from a ball by Cameron Green in the middle of the morning session, the Aussie gloveman threw down the stumps.

The controversy derived from the interpretation of Law 20.1.1.1 which states that the ball is dead when it is finally settled in the hands of the wicketkeeper or of the bowler.

In fairness to Carey, though, he released the ball quickly before Bairstow had moved in anticipation that he would again leave his ground.

And so, while the slightly underhand nature of the wicket was not exactly within the spirit of the game, it was also criminally dozy cricket from Bairstow.

At 193-6, England were heading for a heavy defeat - but the Bairstow controversy actually served to galvanise the home side and Stokes in particular.

The skipper quickly moved into top gear and thrashed the ball to all corners, smacking nine fours and nine sixes in his eventual total of 155.

Australian thoughts surely will have drifted back to the previous Ashes series in England when Stokes, batting for exactly an hour with last-man Jack Leach, almost singlehandedly won the match at Headingley.

Leach famously finished on one not out from 17 balls in support of Stokes's unbeaten 135 - but, this time, the skipper's counter-attack ended with a top-edge and England still 64 runs short, before Broad and Ollie Robinson quickly followed.

There was some unexpected resistance from Josh Tongue - but, without talisman Stokes, it felt only a matter of time and Tongue was duly cleaned up by Starc for 19.

The series had moved apace and the 2-0 lead for Australia left the third Test as must-win for England.

Incredibly, it was another rollercoaster Test match at Headingley as England came out on top by a narrow three-wicket margin.

Man-of-the-match Wood, having recovered from a customary niggle which had until then kept him out of the team, made an immediate impact, taking 5-34 as Australia were bowled out for 263 after tea on the first day.

England struggled in response, however - and Cummins claimed 6-91 in reply as Australia took forward a 26-run lead on first innings.

But, in a truly topsy-turvy contest, Australia were reduced to 116-4 at the end of the second day.

There followed the first of many rain delays across the summer, interruptions which would threaten to mar the remainder of the series.

Play on the third day, in fact, was delayed until after tea - but the England bowlers came out firing, and Ben Duckett and Crawley were batting by close of play.

Resuming on day four on 27-0 with a target of 251, England then engaged in something of a white-knuckle ride, scoring at around five per over while losing wickets regularly.

At 230-7, still 21 runs short, England lost their last recognised batsman as Harry Brook - having made a fine 75 - top-edged to Cummins off Starc despite a minor collision on the catch between the two Aussies.

However, this time, Durham fast-bowler Wood made a crucial intervention with the bat - and, alongside Woakes, guided England to victory and reduced their series arrears to 2-1.

For the most part, the fourth match in Manchester also went to plan for England.

Australia were sent into bat and were dismissed for 317 early on day two - and then, despite the early wicket of Duckett, England again scored at over five per over to finish the day 67 runs ahead on 384-4.

On this occasion especially, England had good reason to score quickly, even by their own Baz-ball standards, with bad weather expected ahead of the Test.

As such, it came as something of a surprise that Stokes waited for England to be dismissed for 592, their highest score at home against Australia since a total of 595-5 at Edgbaston in 1985.

It brought a mammoth lead of 275 - but, in these circumstances, a first innings declaration would have been far more prudent than the decision made at 398-8 on a decent pitch.

Rain in Manchester ultimately only gave England a limited chance to get at Australia with 71 overs bowled on the afternoon of the third day, and the afternoon and evening of the fourth day.

Rather ridiculously, the match on that fourth day threatened to descend into something of a farce when, having convinced the umpires of the need of a change of ball, England were almost immediately restricted to bowling only their spinners due to bad light.

Of course, that decision was determined by clownish sunglasses-wearing arbiter Joel Wilson who has long stolen a living in his role.

In any case, the dreadful Manchester weather meant there was little, in truth, which England could have done. Thanks a bunch, Manchester...

In the fifth Test, Australia - upon winning the toss for the first time in the series - inserted England and squeaked out a narrow 12-run lead on first innings.

Nevertheless, the approach of the two teams - which had been markedly different throughout the summer - was laid completely bare across the first two days.

Whereas England made their total of 283 in 54.4 overs at a startling run-rate of 5.17 per over, Australia at times almost ground to a halt in their reply.

The tourists' 295 came off 103.1 overs at a rate of 2.85, and Marnus Labuschagne - who dawdled to nine runs off 82 balls before edging Wood to a magnificent catch by Root - was especially guilty of being happy to let the game drift.

True, not everything in Test cricket needs to be crash, bang, wallop in the Baz-ball style.

But Labuschagne, who is a more than competent batsman, was so self-indulgent in that innings that it could only be described as anti-cricket.

Thankfully, England improved on their first effort at the second attempt as Crawley, Root and Bairstow all contributed half centuries to an impressive total of 395.

Still, though, the pitch was playing well and the Aussies sauntered to 135-0 when yet more rain brought a premature end to Day Four.

At the juncture of a further delay on Day Five, Australia were 238-3 and well more than half the way to their target.

However, England emerged refreshed from the break - and, after getting a dud of a ball changed by the umpires, Woakes especially found some fine swing, and Australia ended up losing all 10 wickets for 194 runs inside 54 overs.

It was only right, though, that it was Broad who had the final word - and there can be few players in the long history of the game who have combined pure skill and unbridled desire as well as he did.

Go well then, Stuart Christopher John Broad. England - and indeed cricket - will miss you. 


FIRST TEST 16 June-20 June
ENGLAND393-8dec & 273▪️ AUSTRALIA won by two wickets
Edgbaston
AUSTRALIA386 & 282-8
SECOND TEST 28-June-2 July
ENGLAND325 & 327▪️ AUSTRALIA won by 43 runs
Lord's
AUSTRALIA416 & 279
THIRD TEST 6 July-9 July
ENGLAND237 & 254-7▪️ ENGLAND won by three wickets
Headingley
AUSTRALIA263 & 224
FOURTH TEST 19 July-23 July
ENGLAND592▪️ DRAWN
Old Trafford
AUSTRALIA317 & 214-5
FIFTH TEST 27 July-31 July
ENGLAND283 & 395▪️ ENGLAND won by 49 runs
The Oval
AUSTRALIA295 & 334

CENTURIES
▪️ 189 Zak Crawley (England) in the fourth Test at Old Trafford
▪️ 155 Ben Stokes (England) in the second Test at Lord's
▪️ 141 Usman Khawaja (Australia) in the first Test at Edgbaston
▪️ 118* Joe Root (England) in the first Test at Edgbaston
▪️ 118 Mitchell Marsh (Australia) in the third Test at Headingley
▪️ 111 Marnus Labuschagne (Australia) in the fourth Test at Old Trafford
▪️ 110 Steve Smith (Australia) in the second Test at Lord's

FIVE-WICKET HAULS
▪️ 6-91 Pat Cummins (Australia) in the third Test at Headingley
▪️ 5-34 Mark Wood (England) in the third Test at Headingley
▪️ 5-62 Chris Woakes (England) in the fourth Test at Old Trafford
▪️ 5-78 Mitchell Starc (Australia) in the third Test at Headingley
▪️ 5-126 Josh Hazlewood (Australia) in the fourth Test at Old Trafford

Monday, 24 July 2023

Another messy night

LABOUR overturned a majority of more than 20,000 in the Selby and Ainsty by-election on Thursday to gain its second biggest swing from the Tories since 1945.

Keir Mather, aged 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons - the Baby of the House - after he secured 16,456 votes (46%) compared to Conservative candidate Clare Holmes's 12,295 (34.3%) on a swing of 23.7%.

Additionally, on a night when three seats were up for grabs, the Tories also lost heavily in Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats who produced a quite remarkable 29% swing.

But, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives defied dreadful national polls by claiming victory in the seat vacated in July by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Johnson had resigned as an MP following the publishing of a highly-critical report by the Parliamentary Privileges Committee into Partygate which recommended his suspension from Parliament.

But, despite avoiding the indignity of becoming the first PM to lose three by-elections on the same night since Harold Wilson in 1968, the storm clouds are still gathering for the current incumbent Rishi Sunak.

After all, the held seat in outer London was attributed almost entirely to local factors with triumphant Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell pointedly directing his victory speech to Labour mayor Sadiq Khan for his proposed imposition of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on the area.

Under the scheme, drivers must pay £12.50 per day if they drive a vehicle which does not meet modern emission standards.

Generally, these are diesel vehicles that are more than seven years old, or petrol vehicles that are more than 17 years old.

Mr Khan defended the policy even after the result in the early hours of Friday morning, saying: "It was a difficult decision to take. But just like nobody will accept drinking dirty water, why accept dirty air?"

Additionally, the complaints of the Conservatives ring rather hollow if the reality of the situation is considered as ULEZ was actually initiated by Mr Johnson while he was London mayor.

The extension of the scheme to outer London under Mr Khan was also a condition set by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in exchange for financial support for Transport for London during COVID-19.

Nonetheless, Mr Tuckwell's message had a decisive effect on the seat - and, after being decidedly non-committal during campaign, Labour leader Sir Keir Starter called upon Mr Khan to "reflect" on his decision to expand ULEZ, all of a sudden rather hanging him out to dry.

That much-quoted adage of Benjamin Franklin of never interrupting an opponent while they are making a mistake appears to explain the previously cautious strategy of the Labour leader.

But, despite failing in Uxbridge, this somewhat questionable tactic might still work overall as, another political cliché - which suggests governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them - also appears to be ringing true.

The defeat in Selby and Ainsty, a long-time Tory-held rural seat in North Yorkshire, can only be considered to be a response to a government which has dragged the public, in political terms, to hell and back.

It started with austerity brought in by David Cameron in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis - then, following his resignation immediately after a losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, his successor Theresa May called a self-defeating General Election in which she lost her majority and caused complete stalemate in the Commons.

Mrs May's eventual replacement Mr Johnson - following a difficult start in which he almost seemed like his own worst enemy even among his own party - appeared to steady matters by routing a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour at the 2019 General Election.

But, three months later, COVID-19 arrived and threw the government into chaos again.

Mr Johnson applied inconsistent lockdown restrictions while Downing Street staff members unashamedly held alcohol-fuelled parties, including one on the night before Queen Elizabeth II buried her husband Prince Philip.

Eventually, after months of pressure, Mr Johnson was forced to resign as PM in July 2022, prompting a messy leadership election from which Liz Truss somehow emerged the winner.

Ms Truss arrived attempting to increase spending and cut taxes, an audacious move at a time of rising prices worldwide and one which spooked the markets so badly that, with a tenure of only 49 days, she became the shortest reigning Prime Minister in history.

Enter Mr Sunak but, as something of a charisma vacuum, he is also someone who - it has been perhaps less easily forgotten - stood alongside and was fined for a coronavirus indiscretion alongside Mr Johnson while Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Back to the by-elections on Thursday - and the south west of England is an area in which Labour has never been particularly competitive and their voters also appear willing to vote tactically.

In fact, in Somerton and Frome, the Labour candidate polled a miserable 1,009 votes (2.6%) to lose his deposit - but Labour voters there surely knew it was the Lib Dems who are the main threat to the Tories anyway.

By-election victories in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022 and now in Somerton and Frome strongly suggest Sir Ed Davey's party will indeed cause a lot of trouble for the Tories in this region at the next General Election.

In 1997, the Lib Dems won 14 seats in the south west - and they won the same number in 2010 in an overall total of 57 to prevent Mr Cameron from gaining a majority at the first attempt.

Instead, a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition was formed - though, following a near-wipeout in 2015, the Lib Dems certainly will not go down that particularly cul-de-sac again in the course of another hung parliament.

Of course, Labour continues to boast significant poll leads so will be looking towards a first outright majority since Tony Blair was victorious in 2005.

But results like the one in Uxbridge cast doubt on that ambition.

Indeed, only a fool would assess the next General Election on the basis of a uniform national swing in which all of the seats across the whole country are predicted to behave in the same way.

The political landscape has been messy for almost two decades now with the global financial crisis, austerity policies, Brexit and COVID-19 causing various levels of chaos.

It is difficult to imagine then that the next General Election - expected in spring or autumn next year - will be anything other than messy too. 

BY ELECTION RESULTS
Thursday 20 July 2023

UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP


Steve TuckwellCON13,96545.2%(-7.4%)
Danny BealesLAB13,47043.6%(+6.0%)
Sarah GreenGRN8932.9%(+0.7%)
Laurence FoxRCM7142.3%(-)
Blaise BaquicheLD5261.7%(-4.6%)
Others
1,3574.4%
CON hold • Turnout 46.2% (17.3%)

SELBY AND AINSTY



Keir MatherLAB16,45646.0%(+21.4%)
Claire HolmesCON12,29534.3%(-26.0%)
Arnold WarnekenGRN1,8385.1%(+1.9%)
Mike JordanYP1,5034.2%(+0.8%)
Dave KentRFM1,3323.7%(-)
Matt WalkerLD1,1883.3%(-5.3%)
Others
1,1953.5%
LAB GAIN FROM CON • Turnout 44.8% (-27.2%)

SOMERTON AND FROME


Sarah DykeLD21,18754.6%(+28.4%)
Faye PurbrickCON10,17926.2%(-29.6%)
Martin DimeryGRN3,94410.2%(+5.1%)
Bruce EvansRFM1,3033.4%(-)
Neil GuildLAB1,0092.6%(-10.3%)
Others
1,1663.0%
LD GAIN FROM CON  Turnout 44.2% (-31.4%)

KEY ▪️ CON Conservatives  LAB Labour  LD Liberal Democrats  GRN Green  RCM Reclaim  YP Yorkshire Party  RFM Reform UK

Tuesday, 11 July 2023

Ashes alive after England win Headingley nail-biter

ENGLAND kept the Ashes alive with a tight victory at Headingley by three wickets to reduce their series arrears to 2-1.

It was a third nail-biting finale of the summer after similar knife-edge chases by Australia in the first Test at Edgbaston and England in the second Test at Lord's. 

Australia were successful in their pursuit while England were 44 runs short at the Home of Cricket to leave the series at 2-0 to the Aussies.

As holders, the Baggy Greens had made the ideal start - and, even just a draw at Leeds would have been enough for them to retain the urn.

The third Test at Headingley had therefore become a must-win for the hosts.

Sent into bat after losing a third toss in a row, Australia soon found themselves reduced to 85-4 as David Warner (4), Usman Khawaja (13), Marnus Labuschagne (21) and Steve Smith (22) all fell cheaply.

But the unheralded Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh almost took the tourists to Tea without further damage when, on the stroke of the interval, the latter nicked Chris Woakes behind.

Still, Marsh had made 118 by then at exactly a run-per-ball and had made Joe Root pay for dropping him on 12 early in his innings.

⚱️

Infuriatingly, for home fans, this was nothing new - and sloppiness from England is, frankly, a major reason for the Aussies' series lead.

In the field, England have dropped 18 catches - with Root in the slips guilty of shelling six alone.

Meanwhile, wicketkeeper Jonny Bairstow has had a torrid time behind the stumps, missing seven chances including an easy stumping.

Ben Foakes would appear to be a ready-made replacement, even if Bairstow was still retained as a batsman.

However, the Surrey glove-man remains out-of-favour with the team selection for the fourth Test next week at Old Trafford already confirmed.

Bairstow can consider himself pretty fortunate to have retained his place - although, to be fair, he still has some credit in the bank following his heroics last summer against New Zealand and India.

In this series, though, he averages just 23.50, a figure which can be partly attributed to his controversial stumping by Alex Carey in second innings at Lord's.

Carey had noticed Bairstow walking out of his crease after balls which he had left so, when the Yorkshireman did just that from a ball by Cameron Green, the Aussie keeper threw down the stumps.

The controversy derives from Law 20.1.1.1 which states that the ball is dead when it is finally settled in the hands of the wicket-keeper or of the bowler.

In fairness to Carey, though, he released the ball quickly before Bairstow had moved in anticipation that he would again leave his ground.

Perhaps, in the interests of the spirit of the game and to avoid the rather unexpected barracking which they received in the usually genteel Long Room at Lord's, Australia could have used the incident to serve a warning before withdrawing their appeal.

Regardless, though, it was dozy cricket from Bairstow - and, indeed, far more worthy of a wicket than the catch claimed by Mitchell Starc when he had slid the ball with his hand along the ground on the previous evening.

In terms of other head-scratching moments, the decision of skipper Ben Stokes to declare at 393-8 on the very first day of the series has also come in for criticism, particularly as Root was in control at the crease on 118 not out.

True, it meant Australia had to survive a tricky period before the close of play - but they duly did survive - and it seemed instead that England had failed to heed the lessons of their defeat to New Zealand in February.

That match at the Basin Reserve in Wellington brought another first innings declaration by Stokes - but, after the Black Caps made 483 in their second knock, England ended up short in the chase by a single run. 

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Back to the vital third Test - and, with Marsh removed by the last ball before Tea, England resumed after the break re-energised.

Mark Wood (5-34) prompted a collapse of 6-23 as Australia were bundled out for 263 - but, unfortunately, the wickets did not end there.

Just before the close, England lost Zak Crawley (33) to finish the day on 68-3 with Ben Duckett (2) and Harry Brook (3) having earlier barely troubled the scoreboard.

Then, on the second morning, it got worse. From the second ball of the day, Root was caught at first slip by Warner off skipper Pat Cummins and Bairstow could only make a dozen before nicking Starc to Smith at second slip.

England were 87-5 and even first innings parity looked a long way off.

But, to his great credit, Stokes (80) intervened to play a truly great captain's knock, scoring steadily with Moeen Ali and Woakes before Wood also brought fireworks with the bat.

The Ashington-born fast bowler hit 24 off just eight balls - and Stokes then joined the fun by hitting Starc for three consecutive boundaries before twice cracking successive sixes off the bowling of spinner Todd Murphy.

Eventually, England were bowled out for 237, a mere 26-run deficit when it had looked as if it was going to be a lot worse.

Indeed, with Warner - removed by Broad for the 17th time in Tests - and Labuschagne (33), Smith (2) and Khawaja (43) again gone early, there was little at that point to choose between both teams.

Head and Marsh guided the Aussies to stumps as the lead neared 150 - and, in the Yorkshire drizzle, much of day three was an exercise in frustration.

In the end, there was actually more play than expected - enough time, in fact, for the express pace of Wood to bowl out the Aussies for 224, which left England with a target of 251.

Crawley and fellow opener Duckett eased England unscathed to 27-0 at the close of play - but, in truth, it was never going to be a straightforward chase, even though the pitch clearly held no demons.

Four overs after Lunch on day four, England were 171-6, still 80 runs short, after Bairstow completed a miserable Test by dragging an attempted drive off Starc onto his stumps.

Thankfully, though, Brook was still there - and the Keighley-born right-hander on his home ground settled into a good rhythm with Woakes to put on 59 for the seventh wicket.

Brook departed for 75 with 21 still required to leave the door open for one final twist if the Aussies were able to run through the tail.

By then, though, Woakes had played himself in and he provided the perfect foil for the more aggressive Wood who added 16 runs off eight balls to make it 40 off 16 in the match.

Nevertheless, it was Woakes who deservedly hit the winning runs with a confident drive through point to ensure England kept the Ashes alive.

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Remarkably, in the eight Ashes series - four home and four away - between 1989 and 2002-03, England won just one live Ashes Test, the first match at Edgbaston in 1997.

That series still finished 3-2 to Australia - but, in fairness, over the past 20 years, the overall contest has been more evenly matched.

At home, England are unbeaten in the contest since 2001 with four wins and a draw in the intervening 22 years.

However, Down Under, there have been two whitewashes of England in 2006-07 and 2013-14 - and another two 4-0 results in the Aussies' favour in 2017-18 and 2021-22.

In truth, Australia remain strong favourites for this Ashes series as well - they have lost all three tosses, generally have had the worst of the conditions, and yet still lead 2-1.

Moreover, the only side in Ashes history to win from 2-0 down were the Australians in 1936-37 with a team featuring a certain Donald Bradman.

But at least this time, with this attacking line-up and mindset, England have given themselves a chance - and, in never settling for the draw, it is win-win or bust between now and the end of July. 

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