Monday 27 May 2019

The end of May


THERESA MAY choked back the tears as she announced she would step down as Conservative leader on Friday 7 June having failed to get her Brexit deal through Parliament.

In an emotional statement outside of 10 Downing Street, Mrs May said she had done her best to deliver Britain's exit from the European Union, and it was a matter of "deep regret" that she had been unable to achieve this.

Meanwhile, Mrs May said she would continue to serve as Prime Minister while a Tory leadership contest took place with the result of that squabble expected by July.

And, undoubtedly, it will be quite the dogfight. Already, no fewer than nine MPs - Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey, Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart, and bookmakers' favourite Boris Johnson - have declared their candidature.

But whoever wins the contest will take charge of a party which is currently on its knees after the successive premierships of David Cameron and Mrs May.

Hard on the back of their worst local election results since 1995, the Conservatives finished down in fifth place on just 8.8% in European elections in which Britain was not even meant to take part.

Originally, of course, Brexit Day was meant to be on 29 March - almost two months ago now.

But, following nearly three years of delays amid continual infighting and general incompetence, the departure date was put back, first by a fortnight, to 12 April.

Then, perhaps appropriately given the complete political horror show which has happened so far, it was delayed until Hallowe'en, no less.

Now, every good horror movie needs a snivelling villain, and so it has been no surprise to see Nigel Farage return to the forefront of matters on the back of his new vanity project, namely the Brexit Party.

Admittedly, with the ballots counted, the Brexit Party did rather well on Thursday, winning a third of the vote and 28 of the 73 seats.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, Remain supporters deserted Labour and elevated the ardently pro-EU Liberal Democrats into second place.

Labour had to settle for third place while the Green Party took fourth ahead of the Conservatives who suffered their worst electoral result since the Great Reform Act in 1832.

Now, there seems little doubt that Mr Farage’s success campaigning in favour of a no-deal Brexit will push the Tory leadership candidates into hardline positions on leaving the EU.

Already, the Foreign Secretary, Mr Hunt has warned that the Conservatives were facing an “existential threat”, while Mr Johnson said it was a “crushing rebuke” to the government’s failure to take the UK out of the EU.

At this point then, it is probably worth reflecting on how exactly we got here...

Well, even if the result of the referendum held on 23 June 2016 is still accepted - which, among large swathes of the population, it is not - the whole thing has been a sorry mess since the outcome was announced.

Mr Cameron - the Prime Minister who instigated the vote and then backed the losing side - resigned immediately, prompting a Conservative leadership election in which prominent Brexiteer Mr Johnson ultimately did not stand.

Instead, Maidenhead MP Mrs May - a Remainer during the referendum campaign - eventually emerged from an unconvincing pack and soon invoked Article 50.

That set a two-year ticking countdown on Britain's departure from the EU - and yet, shortly afterwards, Mrs May called an early General Election.

It was perhaps the worst thing she could have done.

For, although the Conservatives remained the largest party in the House of Commons after the election, they lost their majority and Mrs May was forced into a confidence-and-supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

This was far from the "strong and stable" position which Mrs May had envisaged when she called the election.

Regardless of that setback, the formal negotiations with the EU began in earnest - but, in an ominous sign of things to come, the Northern Irish hardline DUP rejected a draft agreement set up in December 2017.

Still, negotiations continued and, on 26 June 2018, the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.

On the back of this, Mrs May attempted to shore up support among her more sceptical Cabinet ministers during a weekend at Chequers.

At first, the talks appeared to have gone down reasonably well - but stark divisions soon became apparent and, within days, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Mr Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, had both resigned among others.

Dominic Raab replaced the former - but within months, he had also resigned - and, although Stephen Barclay was named as his replacement, the deal from then on became personalised to Mrs May herself.

In December, the Prime Minister admitted she knew she did not have a majority to get her deal through the Commons and her weak position prompted a vote of confidence in her among Conservative MPs.

Mrs May survived the vote which nominally meant she could not be challenged to another internal confidence vote within 12 months.

However, the pressure on the PM immediately returned in the New Year when she finally put her deal before Parliament.

The size of the defeat - 230 votes - was the biggest ever government reverse in history with the Bill attracting derision from both Leave and Remain supporters.

It was exactly the sort of compromise where everybody would get what nobody wanted - and, as such, it was no surprise to see the deal roundly defeated for a second time when it was put before the Commons again by Mrs May on 12 March.

By then, there were only 17 days left before Britain was due to leave - and the tactical decision by Mrs May to run the clock down in a bid to spook MPs into backing her deal had clearly failed.

Instead, in an unprecedented move, the Commons voted by a majority of 27 to take control of business in Parliament so that they could hold a series of indicative votes as a directive towards breaking the impasse.

But it was never going to be that simple - and, having rejected Mrs May's deal twice, none of the eight alternative options tabled was able to command a Commons majority either.

Of course, even if that had not been the case, it still probably would not have actually provided a solution.

The indicative votes were not in any way legally binding in the same manner that Mrs May's unsatisfactory agreement was - and, for its part, the EU made it clear that it was in no mood to reopen negotiations.

Indeed, the only thing on which the EU appeared willing to budge was the Brexit deadline - and, even on this matter, only slightly.

For, following her second heavy defeat in the Commons, Mrs May had travelled to Brussels requesting an extension to get her deal approved by Parliament until 30 June.

But, instead, the EU merely granted an extension until 22 May, or - more likely - 12 April which was meant to be the effective date if the deal was still not approved.

It was at this point that the already protracted Commons theatrics took on an additional layer of farce as Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow threw an extra spanner in the works.

Mr Bercow cited a convention dating back to 1604 that a defeated motion could not be brought back in the same form during the course of a parliamentary session.

As it happened, Mrs May managed to present a substantively different proposal by removing the more controversial Political Declaration element which covered the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

But, on the day which Britain was meant to leave the EU, MPs again rejected the Withdrawal Agreement, on that occasion by a majority of 58.

The deal, as it stood, was effectively dead in the water - and the PM had finally been forced to turn to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for talks while the EU granted a further extension.

Mr Corbyn, though, was less than impressed that it had taken this long for him to be consulted on a matter of such national importance and so refused to move on his own red lines.

Talks with Labour duly broke down at the back end of the week before last and Mrs May was now cornered with nowhere else to go for support.

Of course, merely the mention of the Prime Minister talking with the Leader of the Opposition had been enough to condemn her in the eyes of some Conservatives - and, from then on, it became a matter of days before her resignation announcement would come.

"Please do not waste this time!" said Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, after the extension until 31 October had been granted.

But, with a Tory leadership election now set to take place followed by an eight-week summer recess, it is certainly not a message which has been heeded.

The no-deal cliff-edge once again draws ever closer - there are just 157 days to go until Hallowe'en.


⭐2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

⭐ NATIONAL SCOREBOARD

Vote
Seats
Brexit 31.6%(+31.6%)29(+29)
Liberal Democrats20.3%(+13.4%)16(+15)
Labour14.1%(-11.3%)10(-10)
Green 12.1%(+4.2%)7(+4)
Conservatives9.1%(-14.8%)4(-15)
SNP3.6%(+1.1%)3(+1)
Change UK3.4%(+3.4%)0-
UKIP3.3%(-24.2%)0(-24)
Plaid Cymru1.0%(+0.3%)1-

Note Northern Ireland has yet to declare

⭐ REGIONS

NE
  NW
  Yorks
  W Mids
  E Mids








Brexit 38.7%2 (+2)  31.2%3 (+3)  36.5%3 (+3)37.7%3 (+3)38.2%3 (+3)







Lib Dems16.8%-17.2%2 (+2)15.5%1 (+1)16.3%1 (+1)17.2%1 (+1)







Labour19.4%1 (-1)21.9%2 (-1)16.3%1 (-1)16.9%1 (-1)13.9%1 (-)







Green 8.1%-12.5%1 (+1)12.9%1 (+1)10.7%1 (+1)10.7%-







Conservatives6.8%- 7.6%- (-2)7.2%- (-1)10.0%1 (-1)10.5%- (-2)







UKIP6.2%- (-1)3.6%- (-3)4.4%- (-3)4.9%- (-3)4.9%- (-2)









London
  SE
  SW
  East
 Wales








Brexit 17.9%2 (+2)  36.1%4 (+4)  36.7%3 (+3)  37.8%3 (+3)31.3%



2 (+2)



Lib Dems27.2%3 (+3)25.8%3 (+2)23.1%2 (+2)22.6%2 (+2)13.2%



-



Labour23.9%2 (-2)7.3%1 (-)6.5%- (-1)8.7%- (-1)14.8%



1 (-)



Green 12.5%1 (-)13.5%1 (-)18.1%1 (-)12.7%1 (+1)6.1%



-



Conservatives7.9%- (-2)10.3%1 (-2)8.7%- (-2)10.3%1 (-2)6.3%



-



UKIP2.1%- (-1)2.2%- (-4)3.2%- (-2)3.4%- (-3)3.2%



-



Plaid Cymru







22.4%



1 (-)





Scotland













Brexit 14.8%1 (+1)












Lib Dems13.9%1 (+1)















Labour9.3%- (-2)















Green 8.3%-















Conservatives11.6%1 (-)















UKIP1.8%- (-1)















SNP37.8%3 (+1)
















Note Northern Ireland has yet to declare

⭐BREXIT: A TIMELINE

24 January 2013 Report
Then-Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, if the Conservatives won a majority at the 2015 General Election, the Government would hold a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the European Union (EU) following a series of renegotiations.

30 March 2015
A General Election was called following the dissolution of the Parliament under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011.

7 May 2015 Report
The General Election was held. David Cameron defied expectations of a Hung Parliament and led the Conservatives to their first outright majority since 1997.

19 February 2016
David Cameron announced the outcome of the renegotiations. The renegotiated terms were in addition to existing opt-outs in the EU as well as the UK rebate - but critics argued there would be no fundamental change to the EU-UK relationship.

20-21 February 2016 Report
David Cameron effectively fired the starting pistol on an in-out referendum by announcing it would be held on 23 June 2016. On the following morning, his long-time rival - the then-Mayor of London Boris Johnson - confirmed he would be backing the Vote Leave campaign

23-24 June 2016
Britain voted 52-48 in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit). David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister on the following morning, triggering a Conservative leadership election.

30 June 2016
Then-Justice Secretary Michael Gove confirmed his bid to become party leader, prompting Boris Johnson, the bookmakers' favourite, to announce he would not enter the leadership contest.

13 July 2016 Report
Theresa May formally became Prime Minister having beaten Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove in the Conservative leadership contest. On the same day, George Osborne was sacked as Chancellor of Exchequer in a reshuffle, and replaced by Philip Hammond.

3 November 2016
The Supreme Court ruled in the favour of Gina Miller who had campaigned for Brexit to be approved through Parliament.

17 January 2017
Theresa May announced that Brexit would be subject to a "meaningful vote" in both Houses of Parliament.

29 March 2017
Article 50 was formally invoked, starting a two-year countdown until Britain severs ties with the EU.

18 April 2017
Theresa May - comfortably ahead in the polls - called a "snap" General Election.

8 June 2017 Report
The General Election was held. The result showed the Conservatives remained the largest party but that they had lost their majority due to a Labour resurgence under Jeremy Corbyn.

9 June 2017
Theresa May vowed to continue as PM and struck a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

13 July 2017
David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, introduced a bill in the House of Commons which ensured Britain's withdrawal from the EU would be subject to a "meaningful vote".

July 2017-November 2017
Negotiation phase 1: A series of talks in Brussels (17-20 July, 28-31 August, 7 September, 25 September, 9-12 October, 9-10 November) over Britain's withdrawal from the EU were held.

4 December 2017
A draft agreement was expected to be finalised at a meeting between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. However, the meeting was abandoned after the DUP objected to arrangements for the Irish border

December 2017-March 2018
Negotiation phase 2: transitional arrangements included an Irish backstop which was agreed in principle by Theresa May and EU chief negotiator Michael Barnier. The backstop potentially tied Northern Ireland to EU trade laws beyond Brexit.

26 June 2018
The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.

6 July 2018
Theresa May summoned her Cabinet to Chequers to shore up support for her Brexit agreement.

8-9 July 2018
Brexit Secretary David Davis tendered his resignation, stating the deal - as it stood - was too soft. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also stepped down as he considered the deal had the potential to turn Britain "into a European colony". Dominic Raab was appointed as Brexit Secretary in a reshuffle.

July-November 2018
Negotiation phase 3: Britain continued its negotiations with the EU.

15 November 2018
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, saying he “cannot in good conscience” support the deal agreed by the Cabinet. He was joined by a spate of others including Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.

16 November 2018
Stephen Barclay became the third Brexit Secretary of the year.

4 December 2018
The Government lost three votes in the Commons and was found in contempt of Parliament. Consequently, the Government was forced to publish its full legal advice on Brexit.

10 December 2018
Theresa May was forced to call off the "meaningful vote" in Parliament, admitting that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority for her deal in the Commons.

12 December 2018 Report
At least 48 Tory MPs' letters were sent into Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. A vote of no confidence was called in Theresa May which she won with a majority of 83 (200-117).

15 January 2019
MPs rejected Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement with the EU by a record margin of 230 votes (432-202), prompting a motion of no confidence from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

16 January 2019
The Government of Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence with a majority of 19 (325-306) as MPs, for the most part, voted along party lines.

28-29 January 2019
Theresa May returned to Brussels to renegotiate her Brexit deal after MPs voted by 317 to 301 for an amendment which called for scrapping the prior agreement’s Irish backstop in favour of yet-to-be defined “alternative arrangements”. The Brady amendment, tabled by 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, was supported by the Prime Minister herself.

18-20 February 2019
A total of 11 pro-Remain MPs - eight from Labour and three from the Conservatives - splintered from their respective parties in protest at their leaders' approaches to Brexit.

25 February 2019
For the first time, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn made a statement in which he publicly backed holding a second referendum on Britain's membership of the EU if Labour fails to get its own version of a Brexit deal passed.

11-12 March 2019
Theresa May returned from further talks with the EU in Strasbourg. However, the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox advised that the deal, as it stood, still carried a "legal risk" that the UK would have no way out of the Irish backstop without EU agreement. Subsequently, MPs once again rejected Theresa May's deal by a still significant margin of 149 votes (391-242).

13 March 2019
MPs rejected any type of no-deal Brexit at any time by a majority of 43 (321-278). Earlier, MPs had backed an amendment to this main motion by just four votes (312-308) which changed the wording of the main motion from them rejecting the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019 to them rejecting the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without any type of deal at any time. The votes were not legally binding, however, and therefore no-deal remained the default outcome.

21 March 2019
Theresa May requested a delay of the Brexit deadline until 30 June. However, the EU was only willing to grant an extension until 22 May, or 12 April if Mrs May's deal was not approved by the UK Parliament.

26 March 2019
Theresa May conceded there was still not enough support in Parliament to get her own deal through the Commons. Later, MPs voted by a majority of 27 (329-302) for the Letwin Amendment which allowed them to take control of business in Parliament in order for them to hold a series of indicative votes.

27 March 2019
Indicative votes were held in the House of Commons but none of the eight options was carried with a majority. Meanwhile, Theresa May told a group of Conservative MPs in a meeting of the 1922 Committee that she would resign before the next stage of the Brexit process if she was able to get her deal through Parliament.

29 March 2019
On the day which Britain was meant to leave the EU, MPs again rejected Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, on that occasion by a majority of 58 (344-286).

3-5 April 2019
Talks between Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn began as the main party leaders attempted to find a solution which would break the Brexit deadlock. In the meantime, Theresa May wrote to EU Council president Donald Tusk "reluctantly" asking for another extension to Article 50.

11 April 2019
European Union leaders granted the UK a six-month extension to Brexit until 31 October, after late-night talks in Brussels. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn continued to hold discussions.

14 May 2019
Theresa May proposed to bring the Withdrawal Agreement to the House of Commons in the first week on June in order for a fourth vote to be held on it.

17 May 2019
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn blamed each other as talks between them collapsed with nothing having been decided.

22-23 May 2019
Leader of the Commons Andrea Leadsom became the 36th minister to resign from Theresa May's Government stating that she no longer believed the Government's approach would deliver Brexit. In the meantime, May shelved plans to publish Withdrawal Agreement bill amid growing Cabinet backlash against it.

24 May 2019
Theresa May announced she would step down as Conservative leader on Friday 7 June though stay on as Prime Minister in a caretaker capacity while her successor is chosen.

26 May 2019
Voters in the 2019 European elections split along Leave and Remain lines as the Conservatives and Labour suffered respectively against surges by the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.

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