Sunday, 9 May 2021

Labour holds London but loses in Hartlepool and heartlands


LABOUR leader Sir Keir Starmer completed an unconvincing Shadow Cabinet reshuffle this week after his party suffered yet another difficult election night last Thursday.

The by-election defeat in Hartlepool removed another brick from the Red Wall which Mr Starmer had vowed to rebuild when he took over from Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020

Instead, Jill Mortimer became the first Conservative to be elected MP in the County Durham town since 1959 when Cliff Richard was top of the UK Singles' Charts with Living Doll.

Indeed, this result - and many others in council elections around England - shows Labour is still heading backwards at a significant rate in its former heartlands in the north and the midlands.

Labour lost its majorities in County Durham, Sheffield and West Lancashire, while the control of the councils in Harlow and Southampton moved directly from Labour to the Conservatives. 

For a party which has now been in power in Westminster for 11 years, the Tories enjoyed an extraordinarily good night, also gaining control in 14 other areas including Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, and Nuneaton and Bedworth.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives restricted their own losses to just three areas, and all of them to no overall control, rather than directly to Labour. 

This was indeed a defining victory in England for Conservative leader and incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson - and proof that the General Election which brought him a majority of 80 in December 2019 had been no fluke.

Of course, Mr Johnson is currently riding the crest of a wave created by a vaccine roll-out which has been among the best in the world and which has allowed restrictions in the UK to be lifted, albeit still cautiously. 

More pertinently for Labour, though, Mr Johnson will simply always hold an advantage over the main opposition party which - even after so long out of power - seems intent on tearing itself apart.

In fairness, it was not all bad news for Labour. Mark Drakeford's Welsh Labour increased the party's seat share in the Senedd, taking exactly half of the 60 seats on offer overall to remain in power. 

Andy Burnham scored a thumping victory in the Manchester mayoral contest while Labour also gained the mayoralities in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and in the West of England. 

Sadiq Khan retained his position as Mayor of London, albeit on a slightly-reduced vote - and Labour candidate Tracy Brabin will now depart her Westminster seat of Batley and Spen after she convincingly won the newly-created West Yorkshire mayorality.

North of the border, though, it is the Scottish National Party which continues to dominate the political scene after a fourth successive win. 

This time, the SNP took no fewer than 62 of the 73 constituencies - and 64 seats overall - to fall short of a majority by just one.

But that slight shortfall will not worry the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon as her allies in the Scottish Green Party still gave her a pro-independence majority at Holyrood in any case.

More importantly, Ms Sturgeon can expect that this nod of approval from the Scottish people will close off the most difficult period of her six-and-a-half-year premiership so far. 

Back in March, an independent report found that Ms Sturgeon had not breached the ministerial code during the Scottish government's botched handling of sexual harassment complaints against her predecessor Alec Salmond.

However, a separate inquiry by MSPs has described the government's actions as "deeply flawed", and questioned some of Ms Sturgeon's evidence.

The row between Mr Salmond and Ms Sturgeon began when allegations of sexual harassment - strongly denied - were made against the former leader by two female civil servants in 2018.

Those complaints were made after Ms Sturgeon asked for new government policies on sexual harassment to be put in place in the wake of the #MeToo movement. 

Mr Salmond believed the policy was aimed at him, and the Scottish government eventually admitted it had acted unlawfully with the result that it had to pay his legal fees which totalled more than £500,000.

It did not end there. In January 2019, Mr Salmond was arrested and charged with multiple counts of sexual assault, including attempted rape.

At the trial in March 2020, Mr Salmond was acquitted of all 13 charges - and, in court, he said the claims made about his alleged conduct were "deliberate fabrications for a political purpose", or "exaggerations".

Mr Salmond has since claimed there was a "deliberate, prolonged, malicious and concerted effort" from some in the Scottish government and leading SNP figures to damage him and even have him sent to prison.

However, Ms Sturgeon has accused him of peddling false conspiracy theories and suggested her predecessor is angry because she "did not collude with him" to make the sexual harassment allegations "go away".

Subsequently, in the run-up to these elections, Mr Salmond helped form the Alba Party as a rival independence-supporting front. 

Far from significantly splitting the pro-indy vote, though, Mr Salmond's new outfit polled only 2% and therefore failed to take any seats. 

It feels certain then, with the Brexit process behind us - if not the effects - and with the coronavirus recovery now in full swing, the next chapter of politics will focus on two competing visions of nationalism. 

On the one hand, there is a British version offered by the Union flag-bearing Mr Johnson - and, on the other, a Scottish version offered by the Saltire-spreading Ms Sturgeon. 

All the while, Labour appears destined to remain on the sidelines, hopelessly split into two or more factions, without either fully splitting or, conversely, cobbling together the so-called Progressive Alliance which it clearly now so badly needs.

🗳️

ELECTION RESULTS BREAKDOWN


• HARTLEPOOL LABCONLDMGRNOTH  
ELECTED MP
By-election 
28.7%51.9%1.2%
1.2%
17.0%Jill Mortimer (CON)
Change 
(-9.0%)(+23.0%)(-2.9%)
(+1.2%)
(+12.3%)

Conservative gain from Labour

🗳️

• ENGLAND    CONLABLDMGRNOTHNOC
Councils634470029

+13-8+1---6
Councillors23451345586151308

+235-326+7+88-4
Projected National Share
36%29%17%
18%

(+8%)(+1%)(-2%)
(-7%)

• UNITARY AUTHORITIES AND METROPOLITAN BOROUGHS
Conservatives
Buckinghamshire - Cornwall - Dudley - North East Lincolnshire - North Northamptonshire - Northumberland - Shropshire - Solihull - Southampton - Swindon - Thurrock - Walsall - West Northamptonshire - Wiltshire - Wokingham
• Labour
Barnsley - Bradford - Bury - Calderdale - Coventry - Doncaster - Gateshead - Halton - Knowsley - Leeds - Liverpool - Manchester - Newcastle upon Tyne - North Tyneside - Oldham - Rochdale - Rotherham - Salford - Sandwell - Sefton - South Tyneside - St Helens - Sunderland - Tameside - Trafford - Wakefield - Warrington - Wigan - Wolverhampton
• No Overall Control
Bolton - Bristol - County Durham - Derby - Hartlepool - Isle of Wight - Kirklees - Milton Keynes - Peterborough - Plymouth - Portsmouth - Sheffield - Southend - Stockport - Wirral

• COUNTY COUNCILS
• Conservatives
Derbyshire - Devon - East Sussex - Essex - Gloucestershire - Hampshire - Hertfordshire - Kent - Lancashire - Leicestershire - Lincolnshire - Norfolk - Nottinghamshire - Staffordshire - Suffolk - Surrey - Warwickshire - West Sussex - Worcestershire
• No Overall Control
Cambridgeshire - Oxfordshire

• DISTRICT COUNCILS
Conservatives
Adur - Amber Valley - Basildon - Basingstoke and Deane - Brentwood - Broxbourne - Cannock Chase - Cherwell - Epping Forest - Fareham - Gloucester - Gosport - Harlow - Havant - Maidstone - Nuneaton and Bedworth - Pendle - Redditch - Reigate and Banstead - Rochford - Rugby - Runnymede - Rushmoor - Tamworth - Welwyn Hatfield - West Oxfordshire - Worcester - Worthing

• Labour
Cambridge - Chorley - Exeter - Hastings - Hyndburn - Ipswich - Lincoln - Norwich - Oxford - Preston - Stevenage
• Liberal Democrats
Cheltenham - Eastleigh - Mole Valley - St Albans - Three Rivers - Watford - Winchester

• Independent
Castle Point
• No Overall Control
Burnley - Colchester - Crawley - Elmbridge - Hart - Norther Hertfordshire - Rossendale - Stroud - Tandridge - Tunbridge Wells - West Lancashire - Woking 

🗳️

• LONDON    CON
LAB
GRN
LDM
UKIP
OTH
Constituency590000

000
000
Votes
32.0%41.7%13.0%10.3%
3.1%

(+1.0%)(-1.9%)(+3.9%)(+2.8%)
(-5.8%)
Region423200

+1-1
+1+1-20
Votes
30.7%38.1%11.8%7.3%1.0%11.1%

(+1.5%)
(-2.2%)(+3.8%)(+1.0%)(-5.5%)(+1.4%)
TOTAL9113200

+1-1+1+1-2-
Labour (11/25) is two seats short of a majority

• CONSTITUENCY SEATS
• Conservatives 5
Bexley and Bromley - Croydon and Sutton - Havering and Redbridge - South West - West Central
• Labour 9
Barnet and Camden - Brent and Harrow - City and East - Ealing and Hillingdon - Enfield and Haringey - Greenwich and Lewisham - Lambeth and Southwark - Merton and Wandsworth - North East

🗳️

• SCOTLAND    SNPCONLABGRNLDMOTH
Constituency6252040

+3-2-1
000
Votes
47.7%21.9%21.6%1.3%6.9%0.6%

(+1.2%)(-0.1%)(-1.0%)(+0.7%)(-0.9%)(+0.1%)
Region22620800

-2+2
-1+2-10
Votes
40.3%23.5%17.9%8.1%5.1%5.1%

(-1.4%)
(+0.6%)(-1.2%)(+1.5%)(-0.1%)(+0.6%)
TOTAL643122840

+1--2+2-1-
Scottish National Party (64/129) is one seat short of a majority

• CONSTITUENCY SEATS
Scottish National Party 62
Aberdeen Central - Aberdeen Donside - Aberdeen South and North Kincardine - Aberdeenshire East - Airdrie and Shotts - Almond Valley - Angus North and Mearns - Angus South - Argyll and Bute - Ayr - Banffshire & Buchan Coast - Caithness, Sutherland and Ross - Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley - Clackmannanshire and Dunblane - Clydebank and Milngavie - Clydesdale - Coatbridge and Chryston - Cowdenbeath - Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Cunninghame North - Cunninghame South - Dundee City East - Dundee City West - Dunfermline - East Kilbride - East Lothian - Edinburgh Central - Edinburgh Eastern - Edinburgh Northern and Leith - Edinburgh Pentlands - Falkirk East - Falkirk West - Glasgow Anniesland - Glasgow Cathcart - Glasgow Kelvin - Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn - Glasgow Pollok - Glasgow Provan - Glasgow Shettleston - Glasgow Southside - Greenock and Inverclyde - Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse - Inverness and Nairn - Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley - Kirkcaldy - Linlithgow - Mid Fife and Glenrothes - Midlothian North and Musselburgh - Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale - Moray - Motherwell and Wishaw - Na h-Eileanan an Iar - Paisley - Perthshire North - Perthshire South and Kinross-shire - Renfrewshire North and West - Renfrewshire South - Rutherglen - Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch - Stirling - Strathkelvin and Bearsden - Uddingston and Bellshill
Conservatives 5
Aberdeenshire West - Dumfriesshire - Eastwood - Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire - Galloway and West Dumfries
Liberal Democrats 4
Edinburgh Western - North East Fife - Orkney - Shetland
Labour 2
Dumbarton - Edinburgh Southern

🗳️

WALES    LABCONPCLDMGRNOTH
Constituency2785000

0+2-1-100
Votes
39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%7.2%

(+5.2%)(+5.0%)(-0.2%)(-2.8%)(-0.9%)(-6.3%)
Region388100

+1+3+2+10-7
Votes
36.2%25.1%20.7%4.3%4.4%9.3%

(+4.7%)
(+6.3%)(-0.1%)(-2.2%)(+1.4%)(-10.1%)
TOTAL301613100

+1+5+1---7
Labour (30/60) is one seat short of a majority

• CONSTITUENCY SEATS
Labour 27
Aberavon - Alyn and Deeside - Blaenau Gwent - Bridgend - Caerphilly - Cardiff Central - Cardiff North - Cardiff South and Penarth - Cardiff West - Clwyd South - Cynon Valley - Delyn - Gower - Islwyn - Llanelli - Mertyhr Tydfil and Rhymney - Neath - Newport East - Newport West - Ogmore - Pontypridd - Rhondda - Swansea East - Swansea West - Torfaen - Vale of Glamorgan - Wrexham
Conservatives 8
Aberconwy - Brecon and Radnorshire - Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire - Clwyd West  - Monmouth - Montgomeryshire - Preseli Pembrokeshire - Vale of Clwyd
Plaid Cymru 5
Arfon - Carmarthen East and Dinefwr - Ceredigion - Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Ynys Mon

🗳️

• ELECTED MAYORS LABCONLDMGRNOTH  
ELECTED MAYOR
[1] LONDON
55.2%44.8%


Sadiq Khan (LAB)
[2] Bristol
56.5%43.5%


Marvis Rees (LAB)
[3] Cambridgeshire & Peterborough
51.3%48.7%


Nik Johnson (LAB gain)
[4] Doncaster
59.8%
40.2%



Ros Jones (LAB)
[5] Greater Manchester
67.3%19.6%3.2%4.4%5.5%
Andy Burnham (LAB)
[6] Liverpool
59.2%40.8%


Joanne Anderson (LAB)
[7] Liverpool City Region
58.3%19.6%10.3%11.8%
Steve Rotheram (LAB)
[8] North Tyneside
53.3%31.2%5.7%6.9%2.8%Norma Redfearn (LAB)
[9] Salford
59.0%23.4%3.3%8.8%5.5%Paul Dennett (LAB)
[10] Tees Valley
27.2%72.8%


Ben Houchen (CON)
[11] West Midlands
46.0%54.0%


Andy Street (CON)
[12] West Yorkshire
61.5%38.5%


Tracy Brabin (LAB)
[13] West of England
59.5%40.5%


Dan Norris (LAB gain)

🗳️

• POLICE COMMISSIONERS LABCONLDM
OTH   
ELECTED
[1] Avon & Somerset
47.6%52.4%


Mark Shelford (CON gain)
[2] Bedfordshire
45.9%54.1%


Festus Akinbusoye (CON)
[3] Cambridgeshire
47.3%52.7%


Darryl Preston (CON)
[4] Cheshire
47.0%
53.0%



John Dwyer (CON gain)
[5] Cleveland
28.9%54.2%4.8%
12.2%
Steve Turner (CON gain)
[6] Cumbria
26.1%53.6%20.4%

Peter McCall (CON)
[7] Derbyshire
44.0%56.0%


Angelique Foster (CON gain)
[8] Devon & Cornwall
34.8%65.2%


Alison Hernandez (CON)
[9] Dorset
38.2%61.8%


David Sidwick (CON gain)
[10] Durham
51.0%49.0%


Joy Allen (LAB)
[11] Dyfed-Powys

45.0%


55.0%
Dafydd Llywelyn (PC)
[12] Essex
22.9%54.0%13.3%
9.8%Roger Hirst (CON)
[13] Gloucestershire

60.4%39.6%

Chris Nelson (CON gain)
[14] Gwent
60.5%39.5%


Jeff Cuthbert (LAB)
[15] Hampshire
31.8%68.2%


Donna Jones (CON)
[16] Hertfordshire
44.7%55.3%


David Lloyd (CON)
[17] Humberside
47.4%
52.6%


Jonathan Evison (CON gain)
[18] Kent
25.3%57.8%17.0%

Matthew Scott (CON)
[19] Lancashire
48.7%51.3%


Andrew Snowden (CON gain)
[20] Leicestershire
43.0%57.0%


Rupert Matthews (CON gain)
[21] Lincolnshire
20.0%59.9%5.9%
14.2%Marc Jones (CON)
[22] Merseyside
56.9%22.9%16.5%
3.7%Emily Spurrell (LAB)
[23] Norfolk
36.7%63.3%



Giles Orpen-Smellie (CON)
[24] Northamptonshire
27.5%53.2%15.3%
4.0%Stephen Mold (CON)
[25] Northumbria
59.6%41.4%


Kim McGuinness (LAB)
[26] North Wales
52.1%47.9%


Andy Dunbobbin (LAB gain)
[27] North Yorkshire
39.0%61.0%


Philip Arlott (CON)
[28] Nottinghamshire
48.6%51.4%


Caroline Henry (CON gain)
[29] South Wales
63.8%36.2%


Alun Michael (LAB)
[30] South Yorkshire
53.9%
32.2%13.8%

Alan Billings (LAB)
[31] Staffordshire
27.5%55.7%4.4%
10.1%
Benedict Adams (CON)
[32] Suffolk
23.0%54.7%8.7%

13.6%
Tim Passmore (CON)
[33] Surrey
42.0%58.0%


Lisa Townsend (CON)
[34] Sussex
34.4%65.6%


Katy Bourne (CON)
[35] Thames Valley
42.7%57.3%


Matthew Barber (CON)
[36] Warwickshire
27.7%52.1%16.2%
4.0%Philip Seccombe (CON)
[37] West Mercia
24.0%55.3%15.7%
5.0%John-Paul Campion (CON)
[38] West Midlands
53.7%46.3%


Simon Foster (LAB)
[39] Wiltshire
36.7%63.3%


NONE - by-election required

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