Thursday 29 March 2012

Galloway pulls off amazing Bradford West by-election win

Bradford West by-election result Respect GAIN from Labour
George Galloway Respect18,34155.9% (+52.8%)
Imran Hussein Labour8,20125.0% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley Conservatives2,7468.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland Lib Dems1,5054.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally UKIP1,0853.3% (+1.3%)
Dawud Islam Green4811.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig Democratic Nationalists3441.0% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope Monster Raving Loony1110.3%
Total votes: 32,814 Turnout: 50.8% Majority: 10,140


GEORGE GALLOWAY scored a sensational triumph for Respect in the Bradford West by-election last night after thrashing Labour following a swing of almost 37%.

Mr Galloway won the seat with a thumping 56% of the vote, finishing well ahead of the Labour candidate Imran Hussein, who polled just 25%.

The Conservatives' Jackie Whiteley trailed in third after their vote collapsed to 8.4% - while their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, lost another by-election deposit in fourth.

The main news, though, surrounded Mr Galloway's extraordinary victory in what was previously a safe Labour seat.

Mr Galloway, who was himself a Labour MP in Glasgow between 1987 and 2003, called it the "most sensational result in British by-election history".

Certainly, it must be said that the drama overnight in West Yorkshire ranked alongside other huge political shocks in Orpington, Crosby, and Glasgow East.

Labour had held Bradford West since 1974, except for a short period between 1981 and 1983 when then-MP Edward Lyons defected to the newly-formed Social Democratic Party.

Even in Labour's disastrous 1983 general election result under Michael Foot, the party still managed to regain the seat from the SDP.

And that fact puts into some context exactly how embarrassing this result actually is for Opposition leader Ed Miliband.

It was not meant to be this way, of course - and certainly not expected to be this way.

Labour was odds-on to win this by-election after pulling ahead into double-digit leads in the national polls following perhaps the roughest week yet for the coalition.

The government's troubles began last Wednesday when George Osborne announced in his third Budget that he was freezing age-related allowances while cutting the highest rate of tax from 50p to 45p.

Almost immediately, Mr Osborne's move became dubbed the "granny tax" and he could not even rely on support from traditionally Tory newspapers.

The Sun claimed that the Chancellor had "clobbered the masses of hard-grafting Brits in a budget that boosted super-earners" while the Daily Telegraph printed "granny tax" in its massive front-page headline.

Perhaps the worst news, though, came from the Daily Mail - "Osborne picks the pockets of pensioners" was its verdict - and it was no surprise to see Conservative support among the over-60s drop in polls after that barrage of headlines.

The perception that the Conservative party is only there to benefit the rich was given further credence when Prime Minister David Cameron then got caught up in a cash-for-access scandal.

Co-treasurer Peter Cruddas resigned from his post in the party after secret filming by the Sunday Times showed him offering access to the PM for a donation of £250,000 a year.

And, subsequently, Mr Cameron was forced into publishing the names of all the donors who had dined with him privately in Downing Street.

The PM soon got himself in more bother when another element of taxation in the Budget, the seemingly innocuous imposition of VAT on hot pasties, reared its ugly head.

Asked when he had last eaten a pasty himself, Mr Cameron recalled: "I think the last one I bought was from the West Cornwall Pasty Company.

"I seem to remember I was in Leeds station at the time and the choice was whether to have one of their small ones or large ones, and I have a feeling I opted for the large one and very good it was too."

The only problem with this anecdote was that the West Cornwall Pasty Company had shut its store in Leeds station... five years ago.

Finally, just to prove that bad thing do not necessarily come in just three doses, a Minister went distinctly off-message, sparking a mass fuel panic which is still an ongoing concern.

Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude probably thought he was being helpful when he suggested that motorists fill jerry cans with petrol and store them in the garage following the Unite union's vote among hauliers to strike. 

Instead, Mr Maude's words have had the inevitable effect of drivers bleeding service stations dry amid record prices, despite the fact that there was no sign of actual strike action on the horizon. 

Unite would have to give seven days' notice of any withdrawal of labour and the union has now confirmed it will continue with its negotiations over the Easter weekend

Nevertheless, the Daily Mail brilliantly summed up the situation with its headline this morning: "Pandemonium at the pumps".

All in all, then, a pretty terrible 10 days for the government. But, with a by-election defeat like this, Labour shows no signs of providing effective opposition under Mr Miliband.

Labourlist, a blog which is independent from the central party, wrote in its live report that the result was a "very, very bad one".

Meanwhile, a follower was rather more cutting in their comment below the line. Jon wrote: "You're up against one of the most calamitous governments of recent times in the longest recession since the Great Depression and you've literally been beaten by a man who likes dressing up as a cat."

For readers unsure of the cat reference, Jon was recalling Mr Galloway's infamous appearance on Celebrity Big Brother in 2006 while he was MP for Bethnal Green and Bow.

In one of the tasks, the Scot pretended to be a cat and licked milk from the cupped hands of fellow contestant, actress Rula Lenska.

Unsurprisingly, Mr Galloway's actions brought him much mockery from the wider public and there were even suggestions that, as a sitting MP, he had brought Parliament into disrepute.

It is a sign, then, of just how bad the options are from the three main parties that the people of Bradford have instead put their trust into the egotistical Respect candidate.

As the member for Bethnal Green and Bow, Mr Galloway had one of the worst attendance rates in the House of Commons, turning up for only one in 20 votes.

And, despite words to the contrary in his victory speech, it is hard to see him being in Bradford for the long run.

If he does cut his losses somewhere down the line, it would be another blow to a West Yorkshire city which is in dire need of some help.

Recently subject to the two-part Channel 4 documentary, Make Bradford British, the area for years has been held up as an example of the failure of different cultural groups to integrate.

And the city took another blow when a report by the Local Data Company claimed that it was the "riskiest city in the UK to invest in retailing" due to its high number of vacant units and charity shops.

Worse still, the public cannot even find respite in following the two main sports teams.

Bradford City FC are sixth-bottom in League Two, and only four points off relegation out of the Football League altogether, having previously played in the Premier League between 1999 and 2001.

Most recently, a mass brawl at the end of their home defeat to Crawley saw five players red-carded, including three from Bradford, with the subsequent FA charge almost sure to result in a substantial fine.

Meanwhile, Bradford Bulls, the rugby league team - again powerhouses at the turn of the millennium - revealed this week that they need £1m just to stay in business.

And so, in light of all of this, it can only be hoped that Mr Galloway is an effective MP and that he did not just win this election to bloody the noses of some former Labour colleagues.

For Mr Miliband, the current poll leads will mean very little this morning. Instead, the results of the May elections now become hugely significant for his chances of survival.

Sunday 25 March 2012

England out to prove a point in Sri Lanka

ENGLAND arrive in Sri Lanka still as the number one Test side in the world but in need of restoring their reputation in that arena.

Andrew Strauss' men lost 3-0 in the Middle East against resurgent Pakistan in a series that, quite frankly, went from bad to worse.

In the first Test in Dubai, England's batsmen had no answer to world class offspinner Saeed Ajmal as he took seven wickets in the first innings and match figures of 10-97.

Ajmal's efforts meant England failed to reach 200 in either innings, and Pakistan were left with a target of just 15 runs for a victory by 10 wickets inside three days.

If that had been embarrassing enough, then the defeat in the second Test in Abu Dhabi simply defied logic.

Having gained a first innings lead of 70, and then bowled Pakistan out again for just 214, a target of 145 should have been easily achievable, albeit on an increasingly tricky pitch.

Indeed, Test Match Special commentator Geoffrey Boycott was so confident of England victory that he said he would bet all three of his houses on that outcome.

Looking back, it is a good job for Boycott that no one held him to his wager as the former captain would now be homeless following an extraordinary second innings slump.

Skipper Strauss made 32 and Matt Prior 18 but none of the other batsmen even made it into double figures as England were bowled out for a pathetic total of 72 to lose by 72 runs. 

With the series now gone, all the Barmy Army could hope for was a consolation victory in the third and final Test of the series.

It was looking good back in Dubai when the impressive and finely-balanced bowling attack of James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar put the tourists on top by bowling out Pakistan for 99.

But, once again, the batsmen let England down, gaining an innings lead of just 42 before being hustled out second time around for 252 in pursuit of 324. 

All in all, it was a thoroughly disappointing series particularly from a batting perspective, even if England improved to win both the One-Day internationals 4-0 and the Twenty20 matches 2-1.

And yet, despite the trio of crushing Test defeats, England retained their place at the top of the rankings after the first Test between New Zealand and South Africa ended in a draw.

The Proteas could have usurped England in the table if they had been able to complete a 3-0 away whitewash of the Black Caps but rain washed out the entire fifth day of the opener in Dunedin.

England's retention of the top spot, which they have held since beating India last August, will become significant on the cut-off date of 1 April when the ICC will award $175,000 to the leaders.

But, regardless of that prize, it is now vital that the batting order regains some of its form after their nightmare earlier this year.

Already, England have been warned that it will not be easy in Sri Lanka with former captain Alec Stewart describing an away trip there as the "toughest place in the world" because of the heat and humidity. 

The tourists can take some heart, though, from two wins out of two in bountiful warm-ups in the capital, Colombo, before the real action begins on Monday in Galle.

The flatter pitches of the subcontinent are often seen as a batsman's paradise and so it was the case for Alastair Cook with the Essex batsman hitting an unbeaten 163 as England won by an innings.

Cook anchored a total of 303-8 in between another fantastic bowling performance in tough conditions which limited the Sri Lankan Board President's XI to scores of 169 and 119.

Strauss' side did face a tougher test in their second three-day match and indeed only won thanks to a sporting declaration from the Sri Lanka Cricket Development XI.

Nevertheless, tons for Strauss and Jonathan Trott in the first innings will have done wonders for their confidence while there were also second innings half-centuries for Kevin Pietersen, Ravi Bopara, Prior and Samit Patel.

Only Ian Bell has struggled to score so far on this tour as England made it back-to-back wins by successfully chasing down their target of 359 with four wickets left.

Warwickshire batsmen Bell, who enjoyed a superb run of form in 2011, has really struggled so far in 2012 but will retain the confidence of coach Andy Flower for now.

The unfortunate Bopara, though, could miss out after injuring himself while bowling in the first warm-up match.

Flower is conscious of the fact that the heat and humidity will make it tough going for the bowlers and so, ideally, he wants a member of the top six to be able to contribute with some proper spells.

Patel seems to fit the bill but England's main focus in this rather unsatisfactory series of just two matches will be on ensuring there is a dramatic improvement at Test level with the bat.

Indeed, while it would be hard going for the viewer, even a couple of classic high-scoring subcontinental draws would probably be regarded in a positive light.

After all, a series full of runs would be perfect for England ahead of a packed summer schedule against West Indies and South Africa, and mini One-Day series against a touring Australia side.

ENGLAND TOUR OF SRI LANKA
DateVenue
15-17 MarWarm-up ENGLAND 303-8 beat Sri Lanka Board XI 169 & 119 by an innings and 15 runsColombo (RPS)
20-22 MarWarm-up ENGLAND 272-4d & 360-6 beat Sri Lanka Development XI 431-6d & 199-4d four wicketsColombo (SSC)
26-29 MarFirst TestSRI LANKA 318 & 214 bt ENGLAND 193 & 264 by 75 runsGalle
3-7 AprSecond TestENGLAND 460 & 97-2 bt SRI LANKA 275 & 278 by 8 wktsColombo (PSS)


ENGLAND SUMMER 2012 FIXTURES
DateVenue
17-21 MayFirst TestENGLAND v WEST INDIESLord's
25-29 MaySecond TestENGLAND v WEST INDIESTrent Bridge
7-11 JunThird TestENGLAND v WEST INDIESEdgbaston
Sat 16 JunFirst ODIENGLAND v WEST INDIESThe Rose Bowl
Tue 19 JunSecond ODIENGLAND v WEST INDIESThe Oval
Fri 22 JunThird ODIENGLAND v WEST INDIESHeadingley
Sun 24 JunFourth ODIENGLAND v WEST INDIESTrent Bridge
Fri 29 JunFirst ODIENGLAND v AUSTRALIALord's
Sun 1 JulSecond ODIENGLAND v AUSTRALIAThe Oval
Wed 4 JulThird ODIENGLAND v AUSTRALIAEdgbaston
Sat 7 JulFourth ODIENGLAND v AUSTRALIAEmirates Durham
Tue 10 JulFifth ODIENGLAND v AUSTRALIAOld Trafford
19-23 JulFirst TestENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAThe Oval
2-6 AugSecond TestENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAHeadingley
16-20 AugThird TestENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICALord's
Fri 24 AugFirst ODIENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICACardiff
Tue 28 AugSecond ODIENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAThe Rose Bowl
Fri 31 AugThird ODIENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAThe Oval
Sun 2 SepFourth ODIENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICALord's
Wed 5 SepFifth ODIENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICATrent Bridge
Sat 8 SepFirst Twenty20ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAEmirates Durham
Mon 10 SepSecond Twenty20ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAOld Trafford
Wed 12 SepThird Twenty20ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICAEdgbaston

Note: Additional ODI Fixture (12 Aug) - SCOTLAND v ENGLAND Edinburgh

Wednesday 21 March 2012

Budget 2012: Osborne's massive "granny tax" gamble

CHANCELLOR George Osborne will abolish age-related allowances from April 2013 to help pay for a cut in the highest rate of income tax from 50% to 45%.

Mr Osborne defended the decision, stating it was part of a wider policy of simplifying tax, but the undeniable truth is that millions of older folk will lose out over the next few years.

The age-related allowances in the coming tax year are £10,500 for pensioners aged between 65 and 74, and £10,660 for people older than 75.
 

But those amounts will be frozen from April 2013 for those who are within those age brackets until the standard personal allowance catches up. Meanwhile, anyone who becomes 65 after April 2013 will only get the standard allowance of £9205. 

This means a person turning 65 in the coming tax year will receive an annual allowance of £10,500 but a person turning 65 after April 2013 will only get the £9205 amount. 

Now, of course, Mr Osborne will receive credit for raising the main personal allowance to the £9205 mark in line with the policy of his party's coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats.

However, his decision to freeze the age-related allowances for pensioners to pay for a cut to the higher rate tax band is a bold political gamble.

In the Commons, Mr Osborne defended the move to scrap the 50p rate, stating a report by HM Revenue & Customs confirmed it had damaged the UK's competitiveness.

The Chancellor added that the rate had "caused massive distortions" and "raised next to nothing", and he stated that those taxpayers would pay "five times more" to the exchequer due to changes to stamp duty levies and a new cap on tax relief.

"No chancellor can justify a tax rate that damages our economy and raises next to nothing," said Mr Osborne.

Nevertheless, as BBC's Nick Robinson pointed out, the policies set out in the Budget still mean that a higher-rate taxpayer who does not buy any property or use any tax relief will still gain significantly at the expense of a pensioner in April 2013.

Labour leader Ed Miliband was quick to pick up on this fact, labelling Mr Osborne's plans a "millionaire's Budget which squeezes the middle".

Mr Miliband added: "After today's Budget, millions will be paying more, while millionaires will be paying less."

But, while the latter part of that statement may or may not be true - it is hard to tell at this point - it is certainly the case that Mr Osborne is testing the loyalty of some of the Conservative party's supporter base.

Labour is back in the lead in most polls but the Tories retain a plurality of support among the over 65s in almost all cases.

Mr Osborne and Prime Minister David Cameron also hold a lead, by 32% to 26%, over Mr Miliband and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls in terms of being trusted with the economy.

However, both of these positions will soon disappear if Mr Osborne's decision to freeze age-related allowances becomes seen as akin to Labour's shocking removal of the 10% starting rate in 2007.

That dreadful move cost Gordon Brown much support for his claim to economic competence, even before the financial crisis hit a year later.

And so - regardless of the justification for their lowering of the 50% tax rate - the separate issue of the removal of pensioners' allowances means the coalition may have just committed their own fatal income tax error.

 Meanwhile, in other moves in his third Budget, Mr Osborne...
- Forecast growth to be 0.8% in 2012 and 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% in the two years after that. (Note: While the 2012 figures are improved from the news in his Autumn Statement when Mr Osborne had announced growth for 2012 would be just 0.7%, they compare unfavourably with the forecast of 2.5% made 12 months ago. Mr Miliband suggested the figures were proof that the Government's plan had failed).

- Cut the rate of corporation tax by 2% to 24%, adding it would further reduce to 22% by 2014.

- Promised to address loopholes in the VAT system while retaining the usual exemptions on food, clothes, books and newspapers.

- Tweaked the coalition's policy on Child Benefit so that its removal from higher rate taxpayers is tapered. (Note: despite this, the inherent unfairness of the policy remains: a couple both earning £40,000 will not lose any Child Benefit but a household in which only one partner earns over £50,000 will lose out).

- Announced that the planned 3p rise in fuel duty in August would go-ahead, and that vehicle excise duty will increase in line with inflation.

- Hit smokers the hardest in terms of duties with a 5% above-inflation rise on a packet of cigarettes, the equivalent of 37p on a packet. There was no change to alcohol duties but a new duty was introduced on gaming machines.


2012 BUDGET DETAILS
Growth forecasts/Fiscal policy
*Growth will be 0.8% in 2012, and 2% in 2013.
*Borrowing in 2012 will be £126bn, falling to £120bn in 2013, £98bn in 2014, eventually to £21bn in 2017. Government saving £36bn in debt interest.
*Independent OBR expects inflation in 2012 to be 2.8%, falling in 2013 to 1.9%.
*OBR forecasts unemployment to peak this year at 8.7% before falling each year to 6.3% in five years.

Taxation/State Pension/Child Benefit
*Abolition of age-related personal allowances for over-65s, as from April 2013.
*Highest rate of income tax will be 45% from April 2013, stays at 50% for 2012-3 - as HMRC report proves it damages the UK's competitiveness, and "caused massive distortions".
*Personal tax-free allowance to £8105 for 2012-13 to £9205 from April 2013.
*Consultation on tax/NI simplification to be published next month.
*From 2014, 20m people to receive new personal tax statement, detailing what they are paying and what they are paying for.
*Corporation tax rate cut by 2% to 24%; will be 22% by 2014. Banks continue to get no benefit from corporation tax rate due to bank levy being increased to 0.105%, raising £2.5bn per year.
*Loopholes in VAT system to be addressed but exemptions to stay on food, clothes, and books.
*Increase on stamp duty to 7% on homes worth more than £2m (or 15% on residential properties of more than £2m bought by a company).
*New cap on tax relief set at 25% of total income for anyone claiming more than £50,000 in a year, but no significant change to pensions relief.
*State Pension to rise by £5.30 per week. Single tier pension to be set around £140 and based upon future contributions for future pensioners. Automatic review of state pension age.
*Child benefit only withdrawn from higher rate taxpayers if someone in household has income of more than £50,000 - gradual withdrawal of 1% for every £100 above £50,000.

Levies
*Alcohol: No further changes.
*Cigarettes: 5% rise above inflation, equivalent of 37p extra duty on a packet of cigarettes.
*Fuel: No further changes. Above-inflation rises will only return if price of oil falls below £45 a barrel.
*Vehicle excise: Increased in line with inflation - but frozen for road hauliers.
*Gambling: New duty on gaming machines at a standard rate of 20% and a lower rate for low-prize machines of 5% of net takings.

Investment
*Increased private investment in roads.
*Network Rail to upgrade Trans-Pennine rail route between Manchester and Sheffield; improvement to the lines between Manchester and Preston, and Manchester and Blackpool.
*24 enterprise zones now operating, new enterprise zone in Deeside, Wales. Enhanced capital allowances for businesses setting up in new Scottish enterprise zones (Dundee, Irvine, Nigg).
*Spending on Afghanistan £2.4bn lower than planned. Extra £100m for military housing, 100% council tax relief for armed forces overseas, family welfare grant for armed fores doubled.
*£3bn tax allowances for oil exploration in Shetlands.
*Tax credit for television, video games and animation industries.
*£100m support for new university science research facilities.
*£70m fund for new jobs and businesses in London.
*£150m to help local councils promote development.
*Funding for superfast broadband and wi-fi in the UK's 10 largest cities with £50m available for smaller cities.

Miscellaneous
*Royal Mail pension fund assets switched to Treasury control.
*Sunday trading laws relaxed for eight weeks commencing on 22 July.

Thursday 15 March 2012

F1 2012 preview: Vettel eyes a hat-trick


SIX world champions lining up in five different teams with two drivers going for a third crown. All this across 20 races in five different continents over nine months of dramatic twists and turns. 

Yes, it can only mean one thing - Formula One is back...


TEAM-BY-TEAM PREVIEW

RED BULL-RENAULT
1 Sebastian Vettel (Ger) GPs: 81 Poles: 30 Wins: 21 Points: 773
2 Mark Webber (Aus) GPs: 176 Poles: 9 Wins: 7 Points: 669.5
It seems as if there cannot be too many more records which Sebastian Vettel is yet to hold but the youngest F1 driver to score championship points, to lead a race, to secure pole position, to win a race, to win a world championship, and to become a double world champion now has his sights on being the sport's youngest triple world champion. That record is currently still held by the late, great Ayrton Senna who achieved it in 1991, aged 31. And so, even if Vettel - aged 25 in July - fails this season, he still has another six years to crack it. Vettel is nothing if not ruthless, though, as he proved throughout 2011 by mercilessly tearing up the field for a second succesive crown and he is undoubtedly the man to beat going into 2012.
That is a tougher task for Vettel's team mate Mark Webber than anyone else - for, though the Aussie has the same car and competed well in 2010, he struggled badly to match the German in 2011. Now with two championships in the bag, Vettel is the darling of the Red Bull team and team orders are likely to favour him again. Webber needs to find a team of his own to lead but he is 35 years old now and time is running out.

McLAREN-MERCEDES
3 Jenson Button (Gbr) GPs: 208 Poles: 7 Wins: 12 Points: 811
4 Lewis Hamilton (Gbr) GPs: 90 Poles: 19 Wins: 17 Points: 723
It is a big year for Jenson Button - and an even bigger one for Lewis Hamilton, as the McLaren team vows to make up for lost time following last year's failure to match Red Bull's place. That, in itself, was no shame, of course - and, indeed, Button - with three wins and nine other podium appearances - seemed at times as if he was the only driver capable of matching the imperious Vettel last year. But it is still a big year for Button because all those efforts ultimately counted for very little in the grand scheme of things. Nevertheless, a repeat of his 2011 form and aggression would surely give him a good chance of adding to his 2009 title, provided that Vettel is reeled in by the pack.
It is a bigger year for Hamilton as, not only will he presumably be aiming for a place in the championship shake-up, the Stevenage man has some work to do to salvage his reputation as a front-runner after a messy fifth-placed finish in 2011. Hamilton was involved in countless incidents on the track, many of them with Ferrari's Felipe Massa, and the spotlight also shone on his seemingly hectic personal life away from the paddock. Hamilton is a delight to watch when he is in full flow and concentrating on his racing - if he can sort out his head then he, too, can dream of joining Vettel and Alonso on two world championships.

FERRARI
5 Fernando Alonso (Spa) GPs: 177 Poles: 20 Wins: 27 Points: 1,086
6 Felipe Massa (Brz) GPs: 152 Poles: 15 Wins: 11 Points: 582
Sebastian Vettel is not the only driver on the F1 circuit who can take Ayrton Senna's youngest triple world champion record from him - a third championship for Fernando Alonso will mean that he would receive this honour. But, unlike Vettel, Alonso only has one year in which to achieve this goal - and it does not seem likely that his Ferrari team is going to be much in the way of help.
Having been well off the pace in 2011, the last thing Alonso needs is a car which is going to struggle at the start of the season but already technical director Pat Fry has been downplaying hopes of a resurgence from the Prancing Horse. And, while that will undoubtedly prove frustrating for Alonso, it could be terminal for Felipe Massa's chances of carving out a career at the front of the grid after his lacklustre showing in 2011 when he failed to achieve a single podium finish. 

MERCEDES
7 Michael Schumacher (Ger) GPs: 287 Poles: 68 Wins: 91 Points: 1,517
8 Nico Rosberg (Ger) GPs: 108 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 306.5
Mercedes was another team which failed to impress in 2011, struggling even to come close to matching a poor effort from Ferrari. Nico Rosberg had plenty of points finishes but did not appear on the podium once and the 26-year-old German is still awaiting his first pole or win after more than a century of races. That is easier said than done with the likes of Vettel around but Mercedes will hope they can compete right at the front of the grid, allowing Rosberg to unearth his undoubted potential. At least Rosberg showed his class in qualifying last year, beating team mate Michael Schumacher in 16 of the 19 sessions.
Although Schumacher actually achieved the team's best result of the season - a fourth place in Canada - he was wildly inconsistent, and suffered five retirements. It is no surprise then that big questions remain over whether the seven-time world champion should have ever come back. Irritatingly for him, those questions are unlikely to go away any time soon.

LOTUS-RENAULT
9 Kimi Raikkonen (Fin) GPs: 156 Poles: 16 Wins: 18 Points: 579
10 Romain Grosjean (Fra) GPs: 7 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 0
Lotus-Renault will hope to gain to a new lease of life by putting a former world champion in its car for the 2012 season. For, the Iceman returns to F1 and he arrives with a deservedly big reputation after his 2007 title at Ferrari. It seems exactly what the team needs having failed to win a race since Fernando Alonso was still racing for them in 2008 and there are high hopes that the Lotus team will awake from its mid table slumber in this campaign.
The employ of the inexperienced Romain Grosjean is more of a risk but the Geneva-born French licence holder can rely on plenty of support from boss Eric Boullier, simply for being French - or, at least, pretty much French. But, of course, the highest hopes are for Raikkonen and so it will be fascinating to see how the Finn re-adapts to F1 having spent more than a couple of years rallying.

FORCE INDIA-MERCEDES
11 Paul di Resta (Gbr) GPs: 19 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 27
12 Nico Hulkenberg (Ger) GPs: 19 Poles: 1 Wins: 0 Points: 22
It has been an eventful close season for the Force India team with former number one driver Adrian Sutil found guilty in January by a German court of grievous bodily harm following an incident at the 2011 Chinese Grand Prix. Sutil received an 18-month suspended prison sentence and was fined 200,000 euros but the upshot of it in F1 terms was that Scotland's Paul di Resta became Force India's lead driver despite having only completed an admittedly impressive rookie season in 2011.
Di Resta's team mate, Nico Hulkenberg, was unfortunate last year not to have a seat after a decent enough finish to his 2010 season at Williams and the 24-year-old German will push di Resta all the way with the Scot only himself still just learning his trade at this level. Team principal Vijay Mallya has apparently demanded his team go for fifth place this season but, while that is of course within the realms of possibility, a consolidation of sixth would still not necessarily be a bad result, given the inexperience on display.

SAUBER-FERRARI
14 Kamui Kobayashi (Jpn) GPs: 40 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 65
15 Sergio Perez (Mex) GPs: 17 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 14
Sauber was again a solid, mid table outfit in 2011, and the team can expect yet more of the same this time around having retained the services of unpredictable pair, Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez - just don't expect the means to this end to be anything like straightforward. Whereas Japan's Kobayashi started impressively with six points finishes from the first seven races before fading, Mexican Perez recovered from a nasty accident in the Monaco tunnel to score in three of the last six races. Indeed, if the team and the drivers could improve on their consistency, Sauber may yet spring a surprise - but such an outcome is not worth betting on, though.

TORO ROSSO-FERRARI
16 Daniel Ricciardo (Aus) GPs: 11 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 0
17 Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra) 2012 is debut season in F1
Toro Rosso made the surprise choice to dispense with the services of Jaime Alguersuari and Sebastien Buemi for this new 2012 season. Well, at least the decision looks surprising to an outsider after both drivers scored consistently enough throughout 2011 for the team to merit a lower mid-table place. However, as team principal Franz Tost explained, Toro Rosso effectively exists in F1 as "rookie training school" - and now it has been decided that Alguersuari and Buemi have 'graduated' from the team's ranks to be replaced by two more eager recruits, 22-year-old Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne, aged 21. Ricciardo arrives after just half-a-season at HRT last year while rookie Frenchman Vergne is signed up having been British Formula Three champion in 2010. As such, this whole season should definitely be regarded as just a transitional one for Toro Rosso.

WILLIAMS-RENAULT
18 Pastor Maldonado (Ven) GPs: 19 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 1
19 Bruno Senna (Brz) GPs: 26 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 2
Williams enter 2012 in desperate need of a good - or even half-decent - year after their disastrous 2011. Last season, the Oxfordshire-based team had a wretched car and scored just five points in the whole campaign. Unsurprisingly, for a team which used to win championships, that was their worst ever return in their 34 years in F1 and, even then, they only scored those points because the generous system now rewards down to 10th position. Certainly, it was a sad way for Rubens Barrichello to depart F1 but, looking ahead, Williams fans can only hope that the team provides better equipment to Barrichello's promising compatriot, Bruno Senna, following his move from Renault. A proper mid-table challenge from Williams is a must.

CATERHAM-RENAULT
20 Heikki Kovalainen (Fin) GPs: 89 Poles: 1 Wins: 1 Points: 105
21 Vitaly Petrov (Rus) GPs: 38 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 64
Caterham, as the team is now called, was forced to shed the Lotus name in the close season after an "amicable settlement" with Renault. Nevertheless, the Tony Fernandes-backed outfit will hope that this fresh start will be more successful than the team's first two seasons which have garnered exactly nul points. In comes Russian Vitaly Petrov from Renault (now, ironically, Lotus-Renault) after he failed to be consistent enough further up the grid. He joins Finland's Heikki Kovalainen whose couple of seasons at McLaren in 2008 and 2009 must now seem like a lifetime away. But, despite their patchy records, these drivers still probably represent Caterham's best chance of breaking its points duck. Expect wild celebrations from Fernandes if, or when, it eventually happens.  

HRT-COSWORTH
22 Pedro de la Rosa (Spa) GPs: 86 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 35
23 Narain Karthikeyan (Ind) GPs: 27 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 5
That HRT is putting all of its hopes on 41-year-old Pedro de la Rosa and 35-year-old Narain Karthikeyan speaks volumes of exactly where this team can expect to find itself throughout the 2012 F1 season. Yes, HRT will, more often than not, be bringing up the rear again having already spent two seasons barely threatening to score a point. That is not to say the move for de la Rosa is a particularly bad one: a former McLaren test driver, he is now hugely experienced and presumably highly knowledgeable about F1. Also, as a Spaniard, he will also indulge in some patriotic flag-waving for his team if - and it is a big 'if' - he gets the chance. The presence of Karthikeyan is less easily explained, until the subject of rupees is approached. 

MARUSSIA-COSWORTH
24 Timo Glock (Ger) GPs: 72 Poles: 0 Wins: 0 Points: 51
25 Charles Pic (Fra) 2012 is debut season in F1
Marussia is another new name on the F1 circuit, appearing after the Russian supercar manufacturers replaced Virgin Racing as the team's majority shareholders. So far this has not exactly been a successful enterprise for all concerned with the team having propped up the Constructors' standings for the last two years. Finishing behind HRT in 2010 was bad enough but, incredibly, it happened again in another pointless season in 2011. And now, even the change of name in has not helped with Marussia failing the FIA's crash test in February, meaning the 2012 car arrives in Melbourne without having been tested. Consequently, it seems that the Franco-German pair Timo Glock and Charles Pic will already have their work cut out to impress in this campaign. 

2012 RACE CALENDAR
For the first time ever this season, Sky will have live coverage of every race on their dedicated channel (Sky 408) after their controversial agreement last July. Where Sky is listed in the column below, the satellite channel will have exclusively live coverage and the BBC will only show extended (delayed) highlights. The BBC also has live coverage of 10 races where its name is listed below.

DateTV
Pole positionFastest lapWinner
18 MarchSkyAustralian Grand PrixHamiltonButtonButton
25 MarchSkyMalaysian Grand PrixHamiltonRaikkonenAlonso
15 AprilBBCChinese Grand PrixRosbergKobayashiRosberg
22 AprilSkyBahrain Grand PrixVettelVettelVettel
13 MayBBCSpanish Grand PrixMaldonadoGrosjeanMaldonado
27 MayBBCMonaco Grand Prix


10 JuneSkyCanadian Grand Prix


24 JuneBBCEuropean Grand Prix


8 JulyBBCBritish Grand Prix


22 JulySkyGerman Grand Prix


29 JulySkyHungarian Grand Prix


2 SeptemberBBCBelgian Grand Prix


9 SeptemberSkyItalian Grand Prix


23 SeptemberBBCSingapore Grand Prix


7 OctoberSkyJapanese Grand Prix


14 OctoberBBCKorean Grand Prix


28 OctoberSkyIndian Grand Prix


4 NovemberBBCAbu Dhabi Grand Prix


18 NovemberSkyUnited States Grand Prix


25 NovemberBBCBrazilian Grand Prix


Wednesday 14 March 2012

The Season 2011/12: Manchester City blink first in title chase


PREMIER LEAGUE
Table
WAYNE ROONEY scored twice at the weekend as Manchester United beat West Bromwich Albion 2-0 to return to the top of the Premier League for the first time since the start of October.

Rooney's brace meant it was already looking like a good day for the Red Devils - but it got even better when news filtered through of Luke Moore's late winner for Swansea City against Manchester City.

A cry of 'Campeones' began to ring around Old Trafford, and with good reason. The defending champions are now one point clear of their city rivals with 10 games left.

It is customary for Sir Alex Ferguson's men to play at their best in the second part of the season and so it is proving again with Manchester United having taken 22 points from their last 24 since successive defeats in January.

Meanwhile, Manchester City's home form remains exemplary - in fact, in the league, it is still perfect with 14 wins out of 14. But, on the road, Roberto Mancini's men have taken just eight points from their last eight, and scored only four goals in that time.

Manchester City can console themselves with the fact that they still have Manchester United to play at the Etihad fortress on Monday 30th April.

However, in the six weeks between now and that contest, the fixtures favour the Red Devils with them playing five of current the bottom six.

It could well be, then, that Manchester United head across the city at the end of April more than three points clear, especially if their opponent's away form remains as shaky as it has been.

Of course, if that was the case, it would not matter even if Manchester City repeated their 6-1 thrashing from earlier in the season... Manchester United would still be top and favourites.

Champions League places
While the title will certainly go to one of the Manchester clubs, the remaining Champions League spots will be fought over by a trio of London clubs - Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Chelsea.

Harry Redknapp's Spurs have held third place since November and it was not so long ago that they were being touted as challengers to the Manchester pair.

But an extraordinary 5-2 defeat to Arsenal, having been 2-0 up, precipitated further losses at Manchester United (1-3) and Everton (0-1).

That sequence has allowed the Gunners - in by far their best form of the season - to catch up to within a point of their North London rivals.

Indeed, Thomas Vermaelen's late, late winner on Monday against Newcastle United made it five wins out of five for Arsene Wenger's men.

Meanwhile, Chelsea, in fifth, cannot be discounted as they sit just three points behind Arsenal and four behind Spurs.

That is despite yet more upheaval at the Stamford Bridge club as Roman Abramovich dispensed of the services of 34-year-old Andre Villas-Boas following a 1-0 defeat to West Brom at the Hawthorns.

Villas-Boas' exit was no surprise really - that was the Blues' eighth league defeat - and his replacement until the end of the season, Roberto di Matteo, has steadied the ship somewhat with successive wins in league and cup.

Whatever happens, though, this ageing Chelsea side still requires a major overhaul and the next permanent manager must be given time in which to do it.

Europa League places
The third race in the top half of the Premier League is headed by Newcastle with the Magpies chasing a return to Europe for the first time since 2006/07.

Alan Pardew's men have not been outside the top seven all season but their form has taken a worrying dip with the finishing line in sight.

Only two points have come from the last four games, although one of them was in a 1-1 draw against Sunderland in a feisty Tyne-Wear derby at St James Park.

Shola Ameobi proved to be the Geordie hero once again as he struck his seventh derby goal in the 93rd minute to deny the Wearsiders what would have been only a fourth Premier League win over Newcastle.

Nicklas Bendtner had given Martin O'Neill's side a first half lead with a penalty but Stephane Sessegnon's second half dismissal for an elbow changed the game.

Sunderland were forced to hang on gamely and Demba Ba looked as if he had blown it for Newcastle, missing from the spot, until Ameobi's late intervention.

Even then, there was still time for Black Cats' captain Lee Cattermole to get sent off for foul and abusive language.

The result left Sunderland with plenty to do if they are to finish above Newcastle though they began their task by beating Liverpool 1-0 at the Stadium of Light thanks to another Bendtner goal.

That was a third successive league defeat for Liverpool, who are already in Europe courtesy of their Carling Cup win and are now sandwiched between the north east pair in seventh.

But the Reds soon made amends as Steven Gerrard scored a hat-trick in an easy 3-0 win in their derby against Everton, for whom David Moyes was celebrating 10 years in charge.

Moyes had never won at Anfield in all that time and the Toffees became unstuck there again last night - and, with defeat, their nine match unbeaten run came to an end.

Relegation battle
For quite some time now, it has been a case of any three teams from five as Wigan Athletic, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Queens Park Rangers, Bolton Wanderers and Blackburn Rovers all battle to avoid the drop.

Blackburn and Bolton both enjoyed last weekend as they recorded wins over QPR and Wolves to lift themselves clear of the bottom three.

Rovers are on 25 points and the Trotters are on 23, a point ahead of QPR and Wolves in the bottom three. Wigan prop up the table on 21 points, having won just once in the league since mid-December, and once at home all season back in August.

The Latics, then, looked most likely to go down and, despite the tightness of the league above them, it is hard at the moment not to look past the other two current occupants.

Wolves have had a tumultuous month having sacked Mick McCarthy following a 5-1 home defeat in the derby to West Brom.

And then, after a farcical failure to bring in a permanent manager, caretaker Terry Connor was asked to take charge until the end of the season.

Connor began well enough, as his side rescued a 2-2 draw at St James Park against Newcastle having been 2-0 down at half time.

But that result was followed by another collapse - a 5-0 defeat at Fulham - before an insipid display in the 2-0 home loss to Blackburn.

Similarly, QPR failed to perform against Bolton, meaning it is now only one point from 15 for new manager Mark Hughes.

Worse for Rangers is the fact that only three of their remaining 10 fixtures are against sides in the bottom half - and, even then, none of them is against a fellow relegation candidate.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Table
READING moved into second place in the Championship last night but their 1-1 draw at struggling Doncaster prevented the Royals from recording a ninth successive league win.

Meanwhile, Southampton are still top of the pile having recovered from a slight slump in New Year to go unbeaten in nine matches since the end of January.

The Saints are two points clear of Reading as they seek a second consecutive promotion while West Ham United continue to threaten despite dropping to third after four home draws in a row.

Manager Sam Allardyce knows the Hammers will have to sort out their form at the Boleyn Ground to ensure a top two position.

But impressive away victories at Blackpool (4-1) and Cardiff City (2-0) have kept the Londoners in touch, just three points off the top with a game in hand.

Below the three leaders, just three points separates Middlesbrough in fourth and Blackpool in ninth.

Brighton & Hove Albion, in fifth, remain unbeaten in the league in 2012 after a 2-0 home win over Portsmouth on Saturday.

It is a run which has now lasted 12 matches and it stands Gus Poyet's side in good stead for the second half of the season.  

Sixth-placed Hull City also have a long unbeaten league run, currently of 10 games, but five draws from their last six has meant the Tigers have been unable to create a gap.

Indeed, Cardiff - in seventh - are on 57 points alongside Hull, though having played a game more and suffered from inconsistent form either side of their Carling Cup Final defeat to Liverpool.

Birmingham City, on 56 points, are still well in contention but they are another team who are on the slide. Chris Hughton's men had done brilliantly to go unbeaten for 11 games either side of Christmas, lifting themselves from 15th to third.

But there are signs that the Europa League run and subsequent games-in-hand catch-up has taken its toll on the Blues who have just two points from their last four games.

Blackpool, also on 56 points, are also in a threatening position just off the playoffs - but they, too, have had an awkward recent run with just four points coming from their last five games.

Meanwhile, Portsmouth can only dream of a Premier League return as another 10-point deduction for going into administration has left them rooted to the bottom.

Whereas previously performances and results were solidly mid-table, Pompey have won just once in their last 11 games, and are eight points adrift of safety.

Second-bottom Coventry City are four points adrift but improved home form - five wins and two draws from the last eight at the Ricoh - has given the Sky Blues hope of avoiding a return to the third flight for the first time since 1963/64.

But City's improvements at home are undermined by truly awful away form - they have lost their last 10 league games, and are yet to win on the road this season.

Doncaster Rovers complete the current bottom three but the south Yorkshire side are showing some fight having gone unbeaten for five games now - the problem is that four of those have been 1-1 draws.

That means Donny are still three points adrift of the safety mark themselves, though fourth-bottom Bristol City are not moving anywhere fast.

Despite a double this season over leaders Southampton, the Robins' recent results have seen them take just four points from their last nine league games.

There is no doubt, on that form, that they will continue to look over their shoulders until the season ends on the last weekend in April.

By then, Nottingham Forest will hope to be safe but, despite having hauled themselves out of the bottom three with successive wins over Birmingham and Coventry, subsequent defeats to Doncaster and Derby County leave the twice-European Cup winners still in danger.

The defeat to Derby was particularly hard to bear coming as a result of a Jake Buxton goal after five of the 10 minutes of stoppage time.

It looked as if ten-man Forest had held out but, thanks to Buxton, the Rams duly completed a league double over their East Midlands rivals for the first time since their league title-winning season of 1971/72.

LEAGUE ONE
Table
CHARLTON ATHLETIC have taken two weeks off, losing successive home games to Colchester United and Notts County, but the Addicks still enjoy a handsome lead at the top of League One.

Those were only the third and fourth league defeats of the season for Chris Powell's men who remain nine points clear of second-placed Sheffield United and 11 clear of Sheffield Wednesday in third.

The Steel City pair look set to scrap it out for the one remaining place and it is the Owls who are in better form, despite Milan Mandaric replacing Gary Megson with Dave Jones in the managerial hot-seat.

Bizarrely, Megson had signed off with a 1-0 victory in the Steel City derby but, since then, Wednesday have continued their good form under new boss Jones with easy wins over Bury (4-1) and Bournemouth (3-0) at Hillsborough.

The Blades, though, have been blunted by the derby loss with further losses to Walsall and Oldham Athletic, and a 1-1 draw at Colchester, meaning Danny Wilson's side only has a narrow advantage for the run-in.

A third Yorkshire club may yet feature in the automatic promotion race but, despite dispensing of the services of Lee Clark for too many draws, the curse of the stalemate has continued for the west Yorkshire club.

The 2-2 home draw against bottom-of-table Rochdale was Huddersfield's third in four matches, and 16th in the league this season.

So, though they have featured on the fringes of the promotion battle, it is more likely that the Terriers will have to contest the playoffs again alongside Milton Keynes, solidly in fifth place, and a yet-to-be-established sixth-placed team.

Notts County currently occupy sixth, having taken 16 points out of their last 18, but the Magpies are only a point ahead of Carlisle United and two clear of Stevenage.

Both the Cumbrians and Boro have two games in hand, one of which is against each other on 17 April, and could yet decide the final playoff place.

At the bottom, Rochdale have struggled to live up to expectations after last season's ninth-placed finish, and they currently prop up the division, six points from safety.

Second-bottom Chesterfield are just one point better off on 32 points while Wycombe Wanderers and Exeter City are on 33 and 34, respectively.

It is tight, then, among the bottom four but they could all end up going down unless they can reel a few teams into the relegation scrap. Only Walsall, on 37 points and with a better goal difference, are within immediate sight at the moment.

LEAGUE TWO
Table
PAULO DI CANIO looks set to begin his managerial career in style by leading Swindon Town out of League Two.

The Robins are seven points clear at the top of the basement division, having won 12 of their last 13 league games. Typically, their only black-mark came in the derby against Oxford United, who completed a highly satisfying double.

Swindon should have the last laugh, though, once the Wiltshire club secure automatic promotion and probably the championship while Oxford struggle on in the playoffs.

Behind Swindon, the other automatic promotion places remain up for grabs with Torquay United, on 66 points, and Shrewsbury Town, on 65 points, in pole position.

Both Southend United and Cheltenham Town are on 64 points in hot pursuit but big-spending Crawley Town's promotion push has faltered.

The Red Devils are some way behind on 59 points, and have just two wins in the league since mid-December, though they do have a game in hand or two after a prolonged FA Cup run.

It seems likely, though, that sixth-placed Crawley could be stuck in the playoffs alongside seventh-placed Oxford, though only if the latter holds off the challenge of inconsistent Gillingham and ever-improving Crewe Alexandra.

Crewe began the season with four straight defeats and were bottom of the league in August.

But, while the Railwaymen may have got themselves out of trouble by the autumn, it has been a long season for the likes of Dagenham & Redbridge and Plymouth Argyle.

Dagenham, who were in League One last season, could suffer successive demotions, mainly as a result of a wretched run between September and December which saw them pick up just one win and three points in 15 games.

Plymouth's problems are well-documented but, having done well to lift themselves out the drop zone, a recent run of just one win in five has left the Pilgrims in danger of a third relegation on the bounce.

However, all hope is not lost for Carl Fletcher's side - or, indeed, for the Daggers.

For, while Dagenham & Redbridge only have 31 points and Plymouth have just 32, Macclesfield Town and Hereford United remain vulnerable on 35 apiece.

Friday 9 March 2012

The Raven




THE RAVEN 
1845
by Edgar Allan Poe (1809-1849)


1 Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door.
`'Tis some visitor,' I muttered, `tapping at my chamber door -
      Only this, and nothing more.'

2 Ah, distinctly I remember it was in the bleak December,
And each separate dying ember wrought its ghost upon the floor.
Eagerly I wished the morrow; - vainly I had sought to borrow
From my books surcease of sorrow - sorrow for the lost Lenore -
For the rare and radiant maiden whom the angels named Lenore -
       Nameless here for evermore.

3 And the silken sad uncertain rustling of each purple curtain
Thrilled me - filled me with fantastic terrors never felt before;
So that now, to still the beating of my heart, I stood repeating
`'Tis some visitor entreating entrance at my chamber door -
Some late visitor entreating entrance at my chamber door; -
      This it is, and nothing more,'

4 Presently my soul grew stronger; hesitating then no longer,
`Sir,' said I, `or Madam, truly your forgiveness I implore;
But the fact is I was napping, and so gently you came rapping,
And so faintly you came tapping, tapping at my chamber door,
That I scarce was sure I heard you' - here I opened wide the door; -
       Darkness there, and nothing more.

5 Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there wondering, fearing,
Doubting, dreaming dreams no mortal ever dared to dream before;
But the silence was unbroken, and the darkness gave no token,
And the only word there spoken was the whispered word, `Lenore!'
This I whispered, and an echo murmured back the word, `Lenore!'
       Merely this and nothing more.

6 Back into the chamber turning, all my soul within me burning,
Soon again I heard a tapping somewhat louder than before.
`Surely,' said I, `surely that is something at my window lattice;
Let me see then, what thereat is, and this mystery explore -
Let my heart be still a moment and this mystery explore; -
       'Tis the wind and nothing more!'

7 Open here I flung the shutter, when, with many a flirt and flutter,
In there stepped a stately raven of the saintly days of yore.
Not the least obeisance made he; not a minute stopped or stayed he;
But, with mien of lord or lady, perched above my chamber door -
Perched upon a bust of Pallas just above my chamber door -
       Perched, and sat, and nothing more.

8 Then this ebony bird beguiling my sad fancy into smiling,
By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance it wore,
`Though thy crest be shorn and shaven, thou,' I said, `art sure no craven.
Ghastly grim and ancient raven wandering from the nightly shore -
Tell me what thy lordly name is on the Night's Plutonian shore!'
       Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

9 Much I marvelled this ungainly fowl to hear discourse so plainly,
Though its answer little meaning - little relevancy bore;
For we cannot help agreeing that no living human being
Ever yet was blessed with seeing bird above his chamber door -
Bird or beast above the sculptured bust above his chamber door,
       With such name as `Nevermore.'

10 But the raven, sitting lonely on the placid bust, spoke only,
That one word, as if his soul in that one word he did outpour.
Nothing further then he uttered - not a feather then he fluttered -
Till I scarcely more than muttered `Other friends have flown before -
On the morrow he will leave me, as my hopes have flown before.'
       Then the bird said, `Nevermore.'

11 Startled at the stillness broken by reply so aptly spoken,
`Doubtless,' said I, `what it utters is its only stock and store,
Caught from some unhappy master whom unmerciful disaster
Followed fast and followed faster till his songs one burden bore -
Till the dirges of his hope that melancholy burden bore
       Of "Never-nevermore."'

12 But the raven still beguiling all my sad soul into smiling,
Straight I wheeled a cushioned seat in front of bird and bust and door;
Then, upon the velvet sinking, I betook myself to linking
Fancy unto fancy, thinking what this ominous bird of yore -
What this grim, ungainly, ghastly, gaunt, and ominous bird of yore
      Meant in croaking `Nevermore.'

13 This I sat engaged in guessing, but no syllable expressing
To the fowl whose fiery eyes now burned into my bosom's core;
This and more I sat divining, with my head at ease reclining
On the cushion's velvet lining that the lamp-light gloated o'er,
But whose velvet violet lining with the lamp-light gloating o'er,
       She shall press, ah, nevermore!

14 Then, methought, the air grew denser, perfumed from an unseen censer
Swung by Seraphim whose foot-falls tinkled on the tufted floor.
`Wretch,' I cried, `thy God hath lent thee - by these angels he has sent thee
Respite - respite and nepenthe from thy memories of Lenore!
Quaff, oh quaff this kind nepenthe, and forget this lost Lenore!'
       Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

15 `Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil! -
Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore,
Desolate yet all undaunted, on this desert land enchanted -
On this home by horror haunted - tell me truly, I implore -
Is there - is there balm in Gilead? - tell me - tell me, I implore!'
      Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

16 `Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil!
By that Heaven that bends above us - by that God we both adore -
Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the distant Aidenn,
It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels named Lenore -
Clasp a rare and radiant maiden, whom the angels named Lenore?'
       Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

17 `Be that word our sign of parting, bird or fiend!' I shrieked upstarting -
`Get thee back into the tempest and the Night's Plutonian shore!
Leave no black plume as a token of that lie thy soul hath spoken!
Leave my loneliness unbroken! - quit the bust above my door!
Take thy beak from out my heart, and take thy form from off my door!'
       Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

18 And the raven, never flitting, still is sitting, still is sitting
On the pallid bust of Pallas just above my chamber door;
And his eyes have all the seeming of a demon's that is dreaming,
And the lamp-light o'er him streaming throws his shadow on the floor;
And my soul from out that shadow that lies floating on the floor
      Shall be lifted - nevermore!


 

Wednesday 7 March 2012

US Election 2012: Romney progress on Super Tuesday

ASSOCIATED PRESS DELEGATE COUNT
(1144 delegates required for outright victory)
Mitt Romney 655
Rick Santorum 278
Newt Gingrich 135
Ron Paul 51

WHITE HOUSE hopeful Mitt Romney took a major step towards the Republican nomination after winning six of the ten states on Super Tuesday.

Mr Romney won by big margins in Idaho, Virginia, and Massachusetts, where he had been governor from 2003 to 2007.

The front-runner also scored victories in Alaska, Vermont and, most importantly of all, the bellwether state of Ohio.

But Mr Romney was unable to secure an outright victory with main rival Rick Santorum winning in Oklahoma, Tennessee and, surprisingly, in North Dakota.

In third place, Newt Gingrich won in the most delegate-rich state of the night, his home state of Georgia, but he gained just 26 nominations across the other nine contests.

Indeed, Mr Gingrich could not manage even a single top-two placing outside of Georgia, and his campaign - which looked so good after his shock early win in South Carolina in January - is now seriously flagging.

Mr Santorum has already replaced former House Speaker Mr Gingrich as the favoured candidate of the conservative right after a hat-trick of wins in February.

However, Mr Romney had responded to that threat with a string of victories in Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Wyoming, and Washington.

Super Tuesday will also be painted in a positive light by the Romney campaign after his vital win in Ohio.

And the remaining races now effectively look to be a head-to-head between Mr Romney and Mr Santorum while Ron Paul hangs around in the background, making his unique stance heard.

Libertarian Dr Paul has a genuine grassroots following, including the support of many younger voters, for his call for smaller government interference and an isolationist foreign policy. 

However, the 76-year-old has yet to convert this support into a single victory, and his latest hopes - in Alaska and Idaho - were dashed by Mr Romney.

Then again, none of the candidates have exactly stormed this nomination process on a wave of popular appeal.

Indeed, Barbara Bush - wife of 41st President George Bush and mother of 43rd President George W Bush - slammed the ongoing primary battles this week, stating it was "the worst campaign I've ever seen in my life".

It does not help, perhaps, that there is a front-runner as unconvincing as Mr Romney.

He may be candidate-elect to some but, as well as suspicion over his Mormon beliefs, doubts remain over whether the multi-millionaire can connect in a general election, or indeed if he is a true conservative.

By contrast, there can be no doubts about the conservatism of the current darling of the evangelical Christian right, Mr Santorum.

Instead, despite actively courting Democrat votes, he has struggled to connect with liberals and moderates after spouting constantly that there should be closer links between church and state.

There have been no fewer than 26 Republican debates now, each one less decisive than the last. Indeed, all that seemed to result from the debates was a further bloodying of all of the candidates as they tore into each other's records.

Incredibly, that led to speculation that a complete outsider to the contest could yet secure the Republican nomination by ending the unseemly four-way spat and unifying the Grand Old Party.

Jeb Bush and even Sarah Palin were considered options but it appears instead as if these wildcards will hold off until 2016 when incumbent President Barack Obama cannot seek re-election.

Indeed, there is a growing acceptance among a minority of Republicans that a second term for Mr Obama is inevitable, and that their party should already be looking four years ahead.

Certainly, Mr Obama was in a relaxed mood as he chose to coincide his first press conference of the year with Super Tuesday.

Asked what he thought about Mr Romney - who had dubbed him as the "most feckless president since Jimmy Carter" - Mr Obama wished his counterpart "good luck" for the night, before adding with a smirk: "No, really."

In the latest opinion polls, Mr Obama holds a clear lead over all of the Republican candidates. His margin over Mr Romney is usually between six and 10 points.

So, while Mr Romney cannot even be sure of his candidacy yet, only complacency looks like denying Mr Obama four more years.


SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS:
7pm ET (midnight GMT)
Georgia
1 Newt Gingrich 47.4% (46), 2 Mitt Romney 25.7% (13), 3 Rick Santorum 19.6% (2), 4 Ron Paul 6.5% (0). 15 delegated unpledged.
Vermont
1 Mitt Romney 39.8% (9), 2 Ron Paul 25.4% (4), 3 Rick Santorum 23.7% (4), 4 Newt Gingrich 8.1% (0)
Virginia
1 Mitt Romney 59.5% (43), 2 Ron Paul 40.5% (3). 3 delegates unpledged.
7.30pm ET (12.30am GMT)
Ohio
1 Mitt Romney 38.0% (35), 2 Rick Santorum 37.0% (21), 3 Newt Gingrich 14.6% (0), 4 Ron Paul 9.3% (0). 10 delegates unpledged.
8pm ET (1am GMT)
Massachusetts
1 Mitt Romney 72.1% (41), 2 Rick Santorum 12.1% (0), 3 Ron Paul 9.6% (0), 4 Newt Gingrich 4.6% (0)
Oklahoma
1 Rick Santorum 33.8% (14), 2 Mitt Romney 28.0% (13), 3 Newt Gingrich 27.5% (13), 4 Ron Paul 9.6% (1). 2 delegates unpledged.
Tennessee
1 Rick Santorum 37.3% (25), 2 Mitt Romney 28.0% (10), 3 Newt Gingrich 24.0% (8), 4 Ron Paul 9.0% (0). 15 delegates unpledged.
9pm ET (2am GMT)
Idaho
1 Mitt Romney 61.6% (32), 2 Rick Santorum 18.2% (0), 3 Ron Paul 18.1% (0), 4 Newt Gingrich 2.1% (0)
10pm ET (3am GMT)
North Dakota
1 Rick Santorum 39.7% (11), 2 Ron Paul 28.1% (8), 3 Mitt Romney 23.7% (7), 4 Newt Gingrich 8.5% (2)
11.30pm ET (4.30am GMT)
Alaska
1 Mitt Romney 32.6% (8), 2 Rick Santorum 29.0% (7), 3 Ron Paul 24.0% (6), 4 Newt Gingrich 14.2% (3). 3 delegates unpledged.

2012 PRIMARY/CAUCUS SCHEDULE
KEY DATES
3 January Iowa (caucus) - Rick Santorum 
10 January New Hampshire (primary) - Mitt Romney
21 January South Carolina (primary) - Newt Gingrich
31 January Florida (primary) - MR

4 February Nevada (caucus) - MR
7 February Colorado (caucus) - RS, Minnesota (caucus) - RS
11 February Maine (caucus) - MR
28 February Arizona (primary) - MR, Michigan (primary) - MR
29 February Wyoming (caucus) - MR

3 March Washington (caucus) - MR
6 March: Super Tuesday Alaska (caucus) - MR, Georgia (primary) - NG, Idaho (caucus) - MR, Massachusetts (primary) - MR, North Dakota (caucus) - RS, Ohio (primary) - MR, Oklahoma (primary) - RS, Tennessee (primary) - RS, Vermont (primary) - MR, Virginia (primary) - MR
10 March Kansas (caucus) - RS, US Virgin Islands (caucus) - MR
13 March Alabama (primary) - RS, Hawaii (caucus) - MR, Mississippi (primary) - RS
20 March Illinois (primary) - MR
24 March Louisiana (primary) - RS, Missouri (caucus) - RS

3 April District of Columbia (primary) - MR, Maryland (primary) - MR, Wisconsin (primary) - MR
24 April Connecticut (primary), Delaware (primary), New York (primary), Pennsylvania (primary), Rhode Island (primary)

8 May Indiana (primary), North Carolina (primary), West Virginia (primary)
15 May Nebraska (primary), Oregon (primary)
22 May Arkansas (primary), Kentucky (primary)
29 May Texas (primary)

5 June California (primary), Montana (primary), New Jersey (primary), New Mexico (primary), South Dakota (primary)
26 June Utah (primary)

27-30 August REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION Tampa, Florida
3-6 September DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION Charlotte, North Carolina