Wednesday 7 March 2012

US Election 2012: Romney progress on Super Tuesday

ASSOCIATED PRESS DELEGATE COUNT
(1144 delegates required for outright victory)
Mitt Romney 655
Rick Santorum 278
Newt Gingrich 135
Ron Paul 51

WHITE HOUSE hopeful Mitt Romney took a major step towards the Republican nomination after winning six of the ten states on Super Tuesday.

Mr Romney won by big margins in Idaho, Virginia, and Massachusetts, where he had been governor from 2003 to 2007.

The front-runner also scored victories in Alaska, Vermont and, most importantly of all, the bellwether state of Ohio.

But Mr Romney was unable to secure an outright victory with main rival Rick Santorum winning in Oklahoma, Tennessee and, surprisingly, in North Dakota.

In third place, Newt Gingrich won in the most delegate-rich state of the night, his home state of Georgia, but he gained just 26 nominations across the other nine contests.

Indeed, Mr Gingrich could not manage even a single top-two placing outside of Georgia, and his campaign - which looked so good after his shock early win in South Carolina in January - is now seriously flagging.

Mr Santorum has already replaced former House Speaker Mr Gingrich as the favoured candidate of the conservative right after a hat-trick of wins in February.

However, Mr Romney had responded to that threat with a string of victories in Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Wyoming, and Washington.

Super Tuesday will also be painted in a positive light by the Romney campaign after his vital win in Ohio.

And the remaining races now effectively look to be a head-to-head between Mr Romney and Mr Santorum while Ron Paul hangs around in the background, making his unique stance heard.

Libertarian Dr Paul has a genuine grassroots following, including the support of many younger voters, for his call for smaller government interference and an isolationist foreign policy. 

However, the 76-year-old has yet to convert this support into a single victory, and his latest hopes - in Alaska and Idaho - were dashed by Mr Romney.

Then again, none of the candidates have exactly stormed this nomination process on a wave of popular appeal.

Indeed, Barbara Bush - wife of 41st President George Bush and mother of 43rd President George W Bush - slammed the ongoing primary battles this week, stating it was "the worst campaign I've ever seen in my life".

It does not help, perhaps, that there is a front-runner as unconvincing as Mr Romney.

He may be candidate-elect to some but, as well as suspicion over his Mormon beliefs, doubts remain over whether the multi-millionaire can connect in a general election, or indeed if he is a true conservative.

By contrast, there can be no doubts about the conservatism of the current darling of the evangelical Christian right, Mr Santorum.

Instead, despite actively courting Democrat votes, he has struggled to connect with liberals and moderates after spouting constantly that there should be closer links between church and state.

There have been no fewer than 26 Republican debates now, each one less decisive than the last. Indeed, all that seemed to result from the debates was a further bloodying of all of the candidates as they tore into each other's records.

Incredibly, that led to speculation that a complete outsider to the contest could yet secure the Republican nomination by ending the unseemly four-way spat and unifying the Grand Old Party.

Jeb Bush and even Sarah Palin were considered options but it appears instead as if these wildcards will hold off until 2016 when incumbent President Barack Obama cannot seek re-election.

Indeed, there is a growing acceptance among a minority of Republicans that a second term for Mr Obama is inevitable, and that their party should already be looking four years ahead.

Certainly, Mr Obama was in a relaxed mood as he chose to coincide his first press conference of the year with Super Tuesday.

Asked what he thought about Mr Romney - who had dubbed him as the "most feckless president since Jimmy Carter" - Mr Obama wished his counterpart "good luck" for the night, before adding with a smirk: "No, really."

In the latest opinion polls, Mr Obama holds a clear lead over all of the Republican candidates. His margin over Mr Romney is usually between six and 10 points.

So, while Mr Romney cannot even be sure of his candidacy yet, only complacency looks like denying Mr Obama four more years.


SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS:
7pm ET (midnight GMT)
Georgia
1 Newt Gingrich 47.4% (46), 2 Mitt Romney 25.7% (13), 3 Rick Santorum 19.6% (2), 4 Ron Paul 6.5% (0). 15 delegated unpledged.
Vermont
1 Mitt Romney 39.8% (9), 2 Ron Paul 25.4% (4), 3 Rick Santorum 23.7% (4), 4 Newt Gingrich 8.1% (0)
Virginia
1 Mitt Romney 59.5% (43), 2 Ron Paul 40.5% (3). 3 delegates unpledged.
7.30pm ET (12.30am GMT)
Ohio
1 Mitt Romney 38.0% (35), 2 Rick Santorum 37.0% (21), 3 Newt Gingrich 14.6% (0), 4 Ron Paul 9.3% (0). 10 delegates unpledged.
8pm ET (1am GMT)
Massachusetts
1 Mitt Romney 72.1% (41), 2 Rick Santorum 12.1% (0), 3 Ron Paul 9.6% (0), 4 Newt Gingrich 4.6% (0)
Oklahoma
1 Rick Santorum 33.8% (14), 2 Mitt Romney 28.0% (13), 3 Newt Gingrich 27.5% (13), 4 Ron Paul 9.6% (1). 2 delegates unpledged.
Tennessee
1 Rick Santorum 37.3% (25), 2 Mitt Romney 28.0% (10), 3 Newt Gingrich 24.0% (8), 4 Ron Paul 9.0% (0). 15 delegates unpledged.
9pm ET (2am GMT)
Idaho
1 Mitt Romney 61.6% (32), 2 Rick Santorum 18.2% (0), 3 Ron Paul 18.1% (0), 4 Newt Gingrich 2.1% (0)
10pm ET (3am GMT)
North Dakota
1 Rick Santorum 39.7% (11), 2 Ron Paul 28.1% (8), 3 Mitt Romney 23.7% (7), 4 Newt Gingrich 8.5% (2)
11.30pm ET (4.30am GMT)
Alaska
1 Mitt Romney 32.6% (8), 2 Rick Santorum 29.0% (7), 3 Ron Paul 24.0% (6), 4 Newt Gingrich 14.2% (3). 3 delegates unpledged.

2012 PRIMARY/CAUCUS SCHEDULE
KEY DATES
3 January Iowa (caucus) - Rick Santorum 
10 January New Hampshire (primary) - Mitt Romney
21 January South Carolina (primary) - Newt Gingrich
31 January Florida (primary) - MR

4 February Nevada (caucus) - MR
7 February Colorado (caucus) - RS, Minnesota (caucus) - RS
11 February Maine (caucus) - MR
28 February Arizona (primary) - MR, Michigan (primary) - MR
29 February Wyoming (caucus) - MR

3 March Washington (caucus) - MR
6 March: Super Tuesday Alaska (caucus) - MR, Georgia (primary) - NG, Idaho (caucus) - MR, Massachusetts (primary) - MR, North Dakota (caucus) - RS, Ohio (primary) - MR, Oklahoma (primary) - RS, Tennessee (primary) - RS, Vermont (primary) - MR, Virginia (primary) - MR
10 March Kansas (caucus) - RS, US Virgin Islands (caucus) - MR
13 March Alabama (primary) - RS, Hawaii (caucus) - MR, Mississippi (primary) - RS
20 March Illinois (primary) - MR
24 March Louisiana (primary) - RS, Missouri (caucus) - RS

3 April District of Columbia (primary) - MR, Maryland (primary) - MR, Wisconsin (primary) - MR
24 April Connecticut (primary), Delaware (primary), New York (primary), Pennsylvania (primary), Rhode Island (primary)

8 May Indiana (primary), North Carolina (primary), West Virginia (primary)
15 May Nebraska (primary), Oregon (primary)
22 May Arkansas (primary), Kentucky (primary)
29 May Texas (primary)

5 June California (primary), Montana (primary), New Jersey (primary), New Mexico (primary), South Dakota (primary)
26 June Utah (primary)

27-30 August REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION Tampa, Florida
3-6 September DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION Charlotte, North Carolina

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