| (Q) | Do you have confidence in Theresa May
as the leader of the Conservative party? |
| YES | 200 (63.1%) |
| NO | 117 (36.9%) |
THERESA MAY survived her latest tumultuous week as Prime Minister after winning a confidence vote which had been brought against her by a group of rebel Conservative MPs.
But, following a week in which the Tory divisions over Brexit were brutally exposed, the PM returned to the negotiating table in Brussels in an unequivocally weaker position.
For a start, Mrs May effectively only seems to have remained in her job because of a promise to her MPs that she will step down from the role ahead of any General Election.
Even on this, though, she has rapidly been forced to make a significant concession this week having originally said she would only not contest a vote as far off as 2022.
That left many Conservatives fearing that Mrs May would still be in place to lead the party if an earlier campaign came around.
Ever since then indeed, she appears to have been on borrowed time, relying on a confidence-and-supply arrangement with nine Democratic Unionists to pass legislation.
Now, though, the unresolved issue of what to do with the Irish border means Arlene Foster's hardline unionists are no longer a reliable source of support.
Instead, on some of the most important votes, the DUP MPs have allied themselves with a core of Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers led by cartoonish relic Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Already, the influence of this alliance in Westminster proceedings has been quite momentous.
The problem there was that the Government had only provided an outline of the legal basis for its Brexit deal whereas Parliament had previously voted to be given the full advice.
Subsequently, the full advice was published ahead of an expectation this week that a so-called "meaningful vote" would be held on whether to approve Mrs May's deal.
All through last weekend, the PM and her ministers were adamant that the vote in the Commons would go ahead - but, as time wore on, it became ever more obvious that the Government was going to be defeated again, and perhaps heavily defeated.
Consequently, on the eve of the division, Mrs May called the whole thing off and admitted outright to the Commons that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority as it stood.
For many in the Conservative party, it was one show of weakness too many from the Prime Minister and a backbench-led confidence vote became as inevitable an event as Mrs May's failure in the Commons would have been.
The short-term difference was that the Prime Minister knew she could win a confidence vote - and she did, something which in itself has the important effect of providing her with immunity from another such challenge for a full 12 months.
In a bizarre way, though, this can help to predict where this goes from here.
Mrs May's deal appears dead in the water while the Irish and/or the EU will not negotiate any further over the backstop so the number of possible outcomes has been automatically limited.
It would seem then either Britain will fall out of the EU on 29 March next year without any sort of deal, or the political gridlock will be acknowledged and a final decision will be thrown back to an exasperated public who mostly just want this all to be over.
Feasibly, of course, both could happen - and, surely, surely, there must be some way out of this mess.
⭐BREXIT: A TIMELINE⭐
⭐
24 January 2013 Report
Then-Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, if the Conservatives won a majority at the 2015 General Election, the Government
would hold a referendum on whether the UK
should remain in or leave the European Union (EU) following a series of renegotiations.
⭐
30 March 2015
A General Election was called following the dissolution of the Parliament under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011.
⭐
7 May 2015 Report
The General Election was held. David Cameron defied expectations of a Hung Parliament and led the Conservatives to their first outright majority since 1997.
⭐
19 February 2016
David Cameron announced the outcome of the renegotiations. The renegotiated terms were in addition to existing opt-outs in the EU as well as the UK rebate - but critics argued there would be no fundamental change to the EU-UK relationship.
⭐
20-21 February 2016 Report
David Cameron effectively fired the starting pistol on an in-out referendum by announcing it would be held on 23 June 2016. On the following morning, his long-time rival - the then-Mayor of London Boris Johnson - confirmed he would be backing the Vote Leave campaign
⭐
23-24 June 2016
Britain voted 52-48 in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit). David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister on the following morning, triggering a Conservative leadership election.
⭐
30 June 2016
Then-Justice Secretary Michael Gove confirmed his bid to become party leader, prompting Boris Johnson, the bookmakers' favourite, to announce he would not enter the leadership contest.
⭐
13 July 2016 Report
Theresa May formally became Prime Minister having beaten Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove in the Conservative leadership contest. On the same day, George Osborne was sacked as Chancellor of Exchequer in a reshuffle, and replaced by Philip Hammond.
⭐
3 November 2016
The Supreme Court ruled in the favour of Gina Miller who had campaigned for Brexit to be approved through Parliament.
⭐
17 January 2017
Theresa May announced that Brexit would be subject to a "meaningful vote" in both Houses of Parliament.
⭐
29 March 2017
Article 50 was formally invoked, starting a two-year countdown until Britain severs ties with the EU.
⭐
18 April 2017
Theresa May - comfortably ahead in the polls - called a "snap" General Election.
⭐
8 June 2017 Report
The General Election was held. The result showed the Conservatives remained the largest party but that they had lost their majority due to a Labour resurgence under Jeremy Corbyn.
⭐
9 June 2017
Theresa May vowed to continue as PM and struck a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.
⭐
13 July 2017
David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, introduced a bill in the House of Commons which ensured Britain's withdrawal from the EU would be subject to a "meaningful vote".
⭐
July 2017-November 2017
Negotiation phase 1: A series of talks in Brussels (17-20 July, 28-31 August, 7 September, 25 September, 9-12 October, 9-10 November) over Britain's withdrawal from the EU were held.
⭐
4 December 2017
A draft agreement was expected to be finalised at a meeting between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. However, the meeting was abandoned after the DUP objected to arrangements for the Irish border
⭐
December 2017-March 2018
Negotiation phase 2: transitional arrangements included an Irish backstop which was agreed in principle by Theresa May and EU chief negotiator Michael Barnier. The backstop potentially tied Northern Ireland to EU trade laws beyond Brexit.
⭐
26 June 2018
The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament called the European Union (Withdrawal) Act.
⭐
6 July 2018
Theresa May summoned her Cabinet to Chequers to shore up support for her Brexit agreement.
⭐
8-9 July 2018
Brexit Secretary David Davis tendered his resignation, stating the deal - as it stood - was too soft. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also stepped down as he considered the deal had the potential to turn Britain "into a European colony". Dominic Raab was appointed as Brexit Secretary in a reshuffle.
⭐
July-November 2018
Negotiation phase 3: Britain negotiated trade relations with EU after Brexit.
⭐
15 November 2018
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, saying he “cannot in good conscience” support the deal agreed by the cabinet. He was joined by a spate of others including Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.
⭐
16 November 2018
Stephen Barclay became the third Brexit Secretary of the year.
⭐
4 December 2018
The Government lost three votes in the Commons and was found in contempt of Parliament. Consequently, the Government was forced to publish its full legal advice on Brexit.
⭐
10 December 2018
Theresa May was forced to call off the "meaningful vote" in Parliament, admitting that she knew she had no chance of getting a majority for her deal in the Commons.
⭐
12 December 2018 Report
At least 48 Tory MPs' letters were sent into Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. A vote of no confidence was called in Theresa May which she won with a majority of 83 (200-117).
