Wednesday, 7 November 2018

US Midterms produce a mixed picture

US MIDTERM ELECTIONS
DEMOCRATS(+39)234
HOUSE201(-39)REPUBLICANS

(-2)47SENATE53(+2)

(+7)23GOVERNOR27(-6)

DEMOCRATS put a dent in the power of President Donald Trump in the Midterm elections after flipping the House of Representatives and gaining several Governors seats.

But, on a mixed night overall, Republicans easily retained control on the Senate - and in fact made gains in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota to strengthen their grip on the upper chamber.

The result fell largely within the expectations of most of the pundits and followed the decision by President Trump to pursue an unusually high profile campaign.

Voter turnout was well up on the miserable 36.4% recorded in the last Midterms in 2014 under Barack Obama as Trump supporters and detractors alike delivered their verdict on his first two years in the White House.

Indeed, Americans remain bitterly divided along partisan lines after another brutal election period which featured a sex abuse scandal, several mail bombs, concerns over a migrant caravan, and a mass shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh.

The sex abuse scandal related to Brett Kavanaugh, who was Mr Trump's nomination for the vacant Supreme Court position.

Prior to this nomination, Palo Alto University Professor of Psychology Christine Blasey Ford contacted a Washington Post tip line with allegations that Mr Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her in the 1980s while the two of them were in high school.

Meanwhile, two other women also accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct.

Mr Kavanaugh categorically denied all the allegations - and, on 27 September, he and Ms Ford testified to a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.

The hearing caused a stir but ultimately mattered little. On 6 October, the Republican-controlled Senate confirmed Mr Kavanaugh's nomination by a 50-48 margin, and he was sworn in later that day.

Bizarrely, the whole affair appeared to boost support for Mr Trump's Grand Old Party as what became characterised by the President as a witch hunt further energised the Republican base.

But, while events surrounding Mr Kavanaugh somehow seemed to work in Mr Trump's favour, the New Yorker adopted a decidedly unpresidential approach to dealing with the fallout from a series of mail bombs delivered to prominent Democrats and other liberals.

In all, 15 pipe bombs were mailed to the likes of former President Obama, former Vice President Joe Biden, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton between 22 and 29 October.

Other people who were sent packages included California congresswoman Maxine Waters, Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, former Attorney General Eric Holder, two former intelligence chiefs, billionaires George Soros and Tom Steyer, and actor Robert De Niro.

Meanwhile, a 15th package, addressed to CNN's world headquarters, was found at an Atlanta post office.

Suspect Cesar Sayoc Jr was arrested in Florida on 26 October. He faces five federal charges and he has been held without bail at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.

Naturally, Mr Trump condemned the attacks in an official statement.

Incredibly, though, he later complained the mail bombs had robbed the Republicans of some crucial momentum in the run-up to polling day.

Sadly, it was also not the last of the violence before the election. On 27 October, a gunman opened fire at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, killing at least 11 people.

The suspected perpertrator - Robert Gregory Bowers - was reported to have been heavily involved in "extermist friendly" websites such as Gab and had promoted anti-Semitic conspiracy theories online through social media.

Bowers's Gab profile featured a cover picture was a photo with the number 1488, used by neo-Nazis and white supremacists to evoke David Lane's Fourteen Words and the Nazi slogan Heil Hitler.

Moreover, Bowers had also published posts supporting the white genocide theory.

Now, of course, Bowers has not acted in a complete vacuum - and it would not be too great a stretch to consider that he had been embolded by a hostile environment created, in part, by some of the language used by Mr Trump throughout his presidency.

Unsurprisingly, that was no different during the election build up as he ordered more than 5,000 troops to guard the southern border from what he described as "an invasion" of migrants.

Instead, though, it was healthcare - and not immigration - which was reported to be the voters' most important issue in the exit polls following Mr Trump's vow "to repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare.

Naturally, there was plenty of desire among Republicans to repeal Obamacare - but its replacement has been subject to much consternation in Congress, and it has therefore not been forthcoming.

Having now lost their majority in the House of Representatives, matters are going to be even more difficult for Mr Trump and the Grand Old Party in the second half of his four-year term.

But it seems highly unlikely that the loss of the House will have any effect on Mr Trump's modus operandi.

Already, in the wake of the election, he has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and warned the Democrats that he would adopt a "warlike posture" if they investigated him.
 
Mr Trump had previously pilloried Mr Sessions for his involvement in the Russia inquiry which is investigating potential collusion between the Trump presidential campaign and Moscow.

Nevertheless, the President extended an olive branch to Democrats, proposing both parties work together on joint legislative priorities such as infrastructure, trade and health.

It will not be easy - but it is not clear exactly how much it matters to Mr Trump in any case for the reality is that the President is permanently in campaign mode.

Even on the date of his inauguration - 20 January 2017 - he was looking ahead to picking his next fight by launching his re-election bid straightaway.

Basically then, we can simply expect more of the same from Mr Trump for the next two years - and that is plenty of rhetoric and hot air, but little in the way of action.

STATE-BY-STATE RESULTS
State

HOUSE
DEMOCRATS

HOUSE
REPUBLICANS


SENATEGOVENOR
🔴 ALABAMA(AL)
🔵1 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴
6 (-)
🔵🔴🔴
🔴 ALASKA(AK)

0 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 ARIZONA(AZ)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵5 (+1)🔴🔴🔴🔴4 (-1)
🔵🔴🔴
🔴 ARKANSAS(AR)

0 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴4 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔵 CALIFORNIA(CA)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
45 (+6)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴
8 (-6)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 COLORADO(CO)
🔵🔵🔵🔵4 (+1)🔴🔴🔴3 (-1)
🔵🔴🔵
🔵 CONNECTICUT (CT)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵5 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 DELAWARE(DE)
🔵1 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 FLORIDA(FL)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵
13 (+2)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴🔴
14 (-2)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 GEORGIA(GA)
🔵🔵🔵🔵4 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴🔴
9 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔵 HAWAII(HI)
🔵🔵2 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 IDAHO(ID)

0 (-)🔴🔴2 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔵 ILLINOIS(IL)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵
13 (+2)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴5 (-2)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 INDIANA (IN)
🔵🔵2 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴
7 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 IOWA(IA)
🔵🔵🔵3 (+2)🔴1 (-2)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 KANSAS (KS)
🔵1 (+1)🔴🔴🔴3 (-1)
🔴🔴🔵
🔴 KENTUCKY(KY)
🔵1 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴5 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 LOUISIANA(LA)
🔵1 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴5 (-)
🔴🔴🔵
🔵🔴 MAINE (ME)
🔵🔵2(+1)
0 (-1)
🔵🔴🔵
🔵 MARYLAND(MD)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵
7 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔵🔵🔴
🔵 MASSACHUSETTS(MA)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵
9 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔴
🔴 MICHIGAN (MI)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵
🔵
7 (+2)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴
7 (-2)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 MINNESOTA(MN)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵5 (-)🔴🔴🔴3 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 MISSISSIPPI(MS)
🔵1 (-)🔴🔴🔴3 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 MISSOURI(MO)
🔵🔵2 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 
🔴
6 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 MONTANA(MT)

0 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔵🔴🔵
🔴 NEBRASKA(NE)

0 (-)🔴🔴🔴3 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔵 NEVADA(NV)
🔵🔵🔵3 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 NEW HAMPSHIRE (NH)
🔵🔵2 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔴
🔵 NEW JERSEY(NJ)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵
🔵
11 (+4)🔴1 (-4)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 NEW MEXICO (NM)
🔵🔵2 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 NEW YORK(NY)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵 
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵
🔵
22 (+4)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴


5 (-4)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA(NC)
🔵🔵🔵3 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
10 (-)
🔴🔴🔵
🔴 NORTH DAKOTA(ND)

0 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 OHIO(OH)
🔵🔵🔵🔵4 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴
12 (-)
🔵🔴🔴
🔴 OKLAHOMA(OK)
🔵1 (+1)🔴🔴🔴🔴4 (-1)
🔴🔴🔴
🔵 OREGON(OR)
🔵🔵🔵🔵4 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA(PA)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵
9 (+3)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴🔴
9 (-3)
🔵🔴🔵
🔵 RHODE ISLAND(RI)
🔵🔵2 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 SOUTH CAROLINA(SC)
🔵🔵2 (+1)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 5 (-1)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 SOUTH DAKOTA(SD)

0 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 TENNESSEE(TN)
🔵🔵2 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 
🔴🔴
7 (-)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 TEXAS(TX)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵
13 (+2)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 
🔴🔴🔴
23 (-2)
🔴🔴🔴
🔴 UTAH(UT)
🔵1 (+1)🔴🔴🔴3 (-1)
🔴🔴🔴
🔵 VERMONT(VT)
🔵1 (-)
0 (-)
🔵🔵🔴
🔵 VIRGINIA(VA)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵
🔵
7 (+3)🔴🔴🔴🔴4 (-3)
🔵🔵🔵
🔵 WASHINGTON(WA)
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
🔵🔵🔵
7 (+1)🔴🔴🔴3 (-1)
🔵🔵🔵
🔴 WEST VIRGINIA(WV)

0 (-)🔴🔴🔴3 (-)
🔵🔴🔴
🔴 WISCONSIN(WI)
🔵🔵🔵3 (-)🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴5 (-)
🔵🔴🔵
🔴 WYOMING(WY)

0 (-)🔴1 (-)
🔴🔴🔴

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