Monday, 8 June 2009

Has Gordon somehow survived the Government meltdown?

Never has the cliché that a week is a long time in politics seemed so apt. For beleaguered Gordon Brown, I can only imagine it has felt even longer.

After all, this time last week, Jacqui Smith was still Home Secretary, Hazel Blears was Communities Secretary and James Purnell was Work and Pensions Secretary.

Labour controlled county councils in Lancashire, Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire and sent 19 MEPs to Brussels.

But this has all changed after the most extraordinary week of the decade in British politics.

Ms Smith began the trickle, becoming the most high-profile casualty of the expenses scandal which has engulfed Westminster.

On the same day, Children's Minister Beverley Hughes resigned for family reasons and key Brown ally, Cabinet Office Minister Tom Watson also stepped down.

Backbencher David Chaytor, embroiled in the expenses scandal having allegedly claimed £13,000 for a non-existent mortgage, said he would stand down at the next election.

And former minister Patricia Hewitt also confirmed she would not seek re-election, though unlike Chaytor, she had escaped unblemished from the Telegraph's reports.

On Wednesday, Ms Blears quit the Cabinet, leaving Labour without a minister for local government on the eve of the council elections.

But it was the resignation of Mr Purnell late on Thursday night which seemed to have dealt Mr Brown a mortal blow.

Breaking from the precedent, Mr Purnell placed his reasoning squarely on his lack of confidence in Mr Brown as Prime Minister.

In a letter to The Times and The Sun newspapers, he said, "I now believe your continued leadership makes a Conservative victory more, not less likely."

Mr Purnell made it clear he was acting alone, but rumours spread that the Cabinet was ready to bring down the Prime Minister.

The tension only increased further on Friday when early results in the local elections suggested Labour would be battered at the ballot box and an email apparently circulated calling on him to resign.

Fears over the result were borne out by a record-low 23% share of the popular vote, 15 points down on the Conservatives and even five points down on the Liberal Democrats.

Labour lost their majorities in Lancashire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire to the Tories who also gained Devon and Somerset from the Lib Dems.

Nottinghamshire fell to no overall control as matters seemed to spiral out of control. Former Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott launched a scathing attack on Labour's "non-campaign" in the elections.

Mr Brown hastily brought forward his reshuffle to Friday - but even this was fraught with problems.

John Hutton resigned as Defence Secretary for personal reasons and Geoff Hoon stepped down as Transport Secretary.

But neither followed Mr Purnell in criticising the Prime Minister as the rumours of a Cabinet plot died away.

Indeed, Mr Brown seemed to have strengthened his position further by appointing the man who was most likely to challenge him – Alan Johnston – as the new Home Secretary.

He was, however, unable to move ally Ed Balls from Schools to the Treasury with expenses-hit Alistair Darling unwilling to relinquish his post as Chancellor.

This was despite briefings from Number 10 to the lobby that Mr Darling would not be in post after the shake-up.

And, just as Mr Brown was seeking to reassert his authority in a press conference by pretending these briefings never took place, he was dealt yet another blow.

Europe Minister Caroline Flint, who had only 24 hours earlier pledged her allegiance to Mr Brown, resigned and launched a scathing attack on his treatment of women in the Cabinet.

In her letter, she said: "Several of the women attending Cabinet - myself included - have been treated by you as little more than female window dressing."

The Prime Minister's aides were quick to dismiss the statement but it seems likely, whether it is true or not, that the charge of "female window dressing" will resonate and tarnish Mr Brown's premiership forever.

But with the Cabinet finally under a semblance of control - confirmation that Mr Purnell had indeed acted alone - it became obvious that it would need to be the backbenchers who would bring down Mr Brown.

Sunday's European election results gave the would-be rebels even more ammunition as Labour was forced into third place, behind UKIP.

And tension grew again yesterday in the wake of the poll disaster as Mr Brown faced a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

But it all passed off without much incident.

The dissenting voices from the backbenches include former Home Secretary Charles Clarke and ex-Cabinet minister Stephen Byers but they remain a bunch of disorganised individuals.

And while Gordon Brown may have lost the support of the public, he retains the backing of his reshuffled Cabinet – at least overtly.

It remains to be seen whether he can stick around for another year until the general election but his notorious stubbornness suggests he could.

Even if he does somehow make it, though, this week's results suggest he will do little more than lead Labour into an increasingly inevitable electoral wilderness.

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