Friday 6 June 2014

No news in Newark

NEWARK BY-ELECTIONCON hold

Robert Jenrick Conservatives17,43145.0%(-8.9%)
Roger Helmer UKIP10,02825.9% (+22.1%)
Michael Payne Labour6,84217.7%(-4.6%)
Paul Baggaley Independent1,8914.9%(-)
David Kirwan Green1,0572.7%(-)
David Watts Lib Dems1,0042.6%(-17.4%)
Others4541.2%(-)
Total votes: 38,707 Turnout: 52.8% Majority: 7,403

CONSERVATIVE candidate Robert Jenrick successfully saw off the threat of the UKIP bounce to win the Newark by-election more comfortably than expected.

Mr Jenrick secured 45% of the vote to beat East Midlands MEP Roger Helmer who nevertheless increased the UKIP share to almost 26%.

Labour, who held this seat between 1997 and 2001, lagged well behind in third on 17% - while Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg may have to endure another few tough days after his party lost yet another deposit.

In fact, this time, Lib Dem candidate David Watts was beaten into sixth place, also finishing behind independent Paul Baggaley and the Green Party candidate David Kirwan.

And that marks the worst by-election performance by the Lib Dems since the war.

The only slight consolation for Mr Clegg was that his party did at least finish above the Monster Raving Loony and the Bus-Pass Elvis Party.

Thus, they just avoided the kind of embarrassment which effectively killed off their predecessor, the Social Democratic Party, at the Bootle by-election in 1990.

Ultimately, though, this is not a by-election which live particularly long in the memory.

A strong recent Tory presence in the constituency kept it in the hands of the government with Prime Minister David Cameron and London mayor Boris Johnson even paying a visit to the Nottinghamshire market town personally in the past week.

And, while Mr Jenrick did see a fairly considerable cut in the Conservative majority from 16,152 to 7,403, pre-election polling suggested UKIP was never likely to end its wait for an MP in Newark.

Perhaps the chances of UKIP gaining the seat were actually gone as long ago as 30 April when leader Nigel Farage confirmed he was not going to stand.

Mr Farage - who subsequently faced accusations of cowardice from some quarters - defended his decision on the basis that he would not be a local candidate and that he also wanted to concentrate on the European elections.

Yes, that choice indeed appears to have been largely vindicated by the historic UKIP success in the European polls on 22 May.

Nevertheless, Mr Farage must accept that, as the party's most recognisable face, his decision not to stand effectively cost UKIP the chance of a long-awaited Westminster breakthrough.

Maybe the critics were right and Mr Farage was worried this relatively safe Tory seat would simply add to the list of occasions where he has tried and failed to become an MP, and so damage his soaring reputation.

After all, his number of failures in attempting to reach Westminster already stands at six.

But, he knows that - for him personally and the party as a whole - some sort of breakthrough must come at next year's general election. Time and tide wait for no man forever.

Effectively, the alternative is for UKIP to be forever left sniping on the sidelines while the established parties get on with the business of running the country - or at least try to give the impression they are.

Of course, sometimes, the power of being in government corrupts and this seat only became available because ex-Conservative MP Patrick Mercer quit over a cash-for-questions scandal, exposed by Panorama on the BBC.

Mr Mercer himself had won the seat in 2001, one of only five direct Tory gains from Labour at a general election dubbed the "quiet landslide".

And his victory is only particularly notable from the fact that the defeated Labour MP, Fiona Jones, would ultimately be the subject of a most tragic tale.

Following her exit from Parliament, Ms Jones descended into alcoholism and died aged just 49 in January 2007 from liver disease. She was found dead at her home by her husband, surrounded by 15 empty vodka bottles.

Indeed, bearing in mind the outcomes for the previous two occupants of the Newark seat, perhaps Mr Farage was wise to avoid this poisoned chalice, after all.

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