Salmond steps down as Scotland says Naw - for now

Should Scotland be an independent country?

AYE		NAW
44.7%		55.3%

National turnout: 84.6%

ALEC SALMOND resigned as First Minister after Scotland rejected independence and voted to remain part of the United Kingdom in a historic referendum last night.

National turnout was almost 85% as the Better Together campaign topped two million votes, and eventually finished ahead of Yes Scotland by 383,937 ballots.

The pattern of the night's results from the 32 council areas became quickly established with reports of disappointed Yes campaigners knowing they had not done as well as the final polls suggested.

In fact, the first seven local authorities - including the islands of Orkney and Shetland - all voted in favour of Naw to varying extents with the tightest race of the whole poll coming in Inverclyde.

There, Better Together beat Yes Scotland by just 86 votes and it would have been quite amazing if the overall race had been so close.

Dundee became the first area to vote Aye, swiftly followed by West Dunbartonshire - and, for a brief few moments, the overall running totals tightened up.

However, a whole slew of results - in Midlothian, East Lothian, Stirling, Falkirk, Angus, Dumfries, East Renfewshire, East Dunbartonshire, and Aberdeen - then came in for Naw. 

It meant that, even with Scotland's biggest city Glasgow voting 53-47 to leave the Union, the Yes campaign was still behind.

Then, Scotland's former and present capitals both swung behind Better Together. Perth and Kinross went Naw by a 60-40 margin while Edinburgh was just as decisive with its 61-39 breakdown. 

By the time of the Edinburgh result, the BBC had already called the election in favour of Better Together, doing so at 5.14am with six councils left to report. 

Fife officially took Naw over the winning line shortly afterwards with the penultimate result in Moray and the last result from Highland also both voting to reject independence. 

Ultimately, only four local authority areas - Glasgow, Dundee, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire - voted Aye in deep contrast to the state of the political map in 2011. 

Back then, just over three years ago, Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party swept the Central Belt and gained an unexpected majority in the devolved Scottish Parliament in Holyrood. 

Indeed, it was this overwhelming mandate which rather forced Mr Salmond's hand. 

His party, set up in 1934 with the stated aim of breaking away from the Union, had a majority in a system which was not even supposed to produce such results. 

And so, if Mr Salmond had not offered a referendum after his 2011 result, he would have been accused by his opponents of running scared. 

The caution at holding a vote came from the fact that, while his Scottish Nationalists were a popular alternative to the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats in elections, actual support for independence hung at around just over a third. 

Nevertheless, this campaign soon changed that. Sometimes feisty and always passionate, the last few weeks have seen an independence movement growing in confidence, belief and numbers on the ground. 

Aye supporters even gained a whole load of concessions from the three Westminster leaders in the closing days before the ballot. 

In truth, the Westminster establishment was running scared after a single, probably rogue, opinion poll put Yes Scotland ahead for the first time with less than two weeks to go. 

Business as usual in the House of Commons was postponed as Prime Minister David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Leader of the Opposition Ed Miliband all hastily hopped on a train. 

Former Prime Minister and Labour leader Gordon Brown also became influential in the process, setting out a tight timetable for further devolution which Mr Cameron is now almost obliged to follow. 

It means that, while Mr Cameron may not have overseen the break-up of the Union, the coming constitutional changes will cause him a major headache ahead of a general election less than eight months away.

What also became clear is that the cry of an overhaul of British politics was not just coming from Scotland. 

The long-standing West Lothian question - where Scottish MPs in Westminster can vote on English-only matters - must surely now be properly addressed. 

Similarly, the Barnett formula - devised in the 1970s with the aim of sharing public spending fairly - has become massively outdated with Wales and some English regions now badly losing out to Scotland. 

Despite the Westminster leaders' vow to keep it, this is an imbalance which needs a review, even to the admission of the creator of the original formula, Joel Barnett. 

And this is especially the case with the Scottish Parliament effectively getting Home Rule with further powers over tax, spending and welfare arrangements. 

Some of the more embittered Aye campaigners have considered last night's result to be the very definition of fear triumphing over hope - but this is far too simplistic a view. 

Concerns over currency and the economy in general still remained as legitimate as ever, no matter how many times Mr Salmond blindly and falsely accused his opponents of scaremongering. 

With his dream of an independent Scotland over, Mr Salmond said this afternoon he would quit as First Minister in November.

But, despite his decision, his dream of an independent Scotland is not over altogether. Opinion polls showed the younger generation to be much more enthusiastic about independence than older folk. 

Aye led in every age-group except for the over-60s and it looks as if the overwhelming 'small-c' conservatism of the 'grey vote' was the decisive factor in keeping Scotland in the Union. 

The direction of travel is undeniable - and, while Mr Salmond will now not be the leader to achieve it, he made a point in his concession speech of stating Scotland had rejected independence "at this stage".

Should auld acquaintance be forgot? Not until the next time at least.

FULL RESULTS

SCOTLAND	AYE		NAW
Local authority area (turnout)	44.7%		55.3%
Aberdeen city (82%)	59,390 (41.4%)		84,094 (58.6%)
Aberdeenshire (87%)	71,337 (39.6%)		108,606 (60.4%)
Angus (86%)	35,044 (43.7%)		45,192 (56.3%)
Argyll and Bute (88%)	26,324 (41.5%)		37,143 (58.5%)
Clackmannanshire (89%)	16,350 (46.2%)		19,036 (53.8%)
Dumfries and Galloway (88%)	36,614 (34.3%)		70,039 (65.7%)
Dundee city (79%)	53,620 (57.4%)		39,880 (42.6%)
East Ayrshire (85%)	39,762 (47.2%)		44,442 (52.8%)
East Dunbartonshire (91%)	30,624 (38.8%)		48,314 (61.2%)
East Lothian (88%)	27,467 (38.3%)		44,283 (61.7%)
East Renfrewshire (90%)	24,287 (36.8%)		41,690 (63.2%)
City of Edinburgh (84%)	123,927 (38.9%)		194,638 (61.1%)
Falkirk (89%)	50,489 (46.5%)		58,030 (53.5%)
Fife (84%)	114,148 (45.0%)		139,788 (55.0%)
Glasgow City (75%)	194,739 (53.5%)		169,347 (46.5%)
Highland (4am)	78,069 (47.1%)		87,739 (52.9%)
Inverclyde (87%)	27,243 (49.9%)		27,329 (50.1%)
Midlothian (87%)	26,370 (43.7%)		33,972 (56.3%)
Moray (85%)	27,232 (42.5%)		36,935 (57.5%)
North Ayrshire (84%)	47,072 (49.0%)		49,016 (51.0%)
North Lanarkshire (84%)	115,783 (51.1%)		110,922 (48.9%)
Perth and Kinross (87%)	41,475 (39.8%)		62,714 (60.2%)
Renfrewshire (87%)	55,466 (47.2%)		62,067 (52.8%)
Scottish Borders (87%)	27,906 (33.4%)		55,553 (66.6%)
South Ayrshire (86%)	34,402 (42.1%)		47,247 (57.9%)
South Lanarkshire (85%)	100,990 (45.3%)		121,800 (54.7%)
Stirling (90%)	25,010 (40.2%)		37,153 (59.8%)
West Dunbartonshire (88%)	33,720 (54.0%)		28,776 (46.0%)
West Lothian (86%)	53,342 (44.8%)		65,682 (55.2%)
Na h-Eileanan Siar (86%)	9,195 (46.6%)		10,544 (53.4%)
Orkney Islands (84%)	4,883 (32.8%)		10,004 (67.2%)
Shetland Islands (84%)	5,669 (36.3%)		9,951 (63.7%)
Totals (popular vote):	1,617,989		2,001,926

Salmond shouts his way to debate win

SCOTLAND First Minister Alec Salmond struck back in the second independence debate after he repeatedly shouted down his opponent Alistair Darling in an ill-tempered contest.

A snap poll by ICM showed 71% thought Mr Salmond had won the debate against just 29% for Mr Darling. Those figures represent quite a turnaround for Mr Salmond after Mr Darling's surprise win three weeks ago.

Nevertheless, with just over three weeks to go until polling day - and some postal voting taking place from this week - it was the least the Scottish Nationalist leader needed to do.

And yet, at this late stage, it still may not be enough.

For, although Mr Salmond was undoubtedly the clear victor last night, the standard of the debate at the Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum in Glasgow was frankly appalling.

Indeed, it was so poor that it may have put off those who are undecided from voting altogether, something over which BBC Scotland moderator Glenn Campbell must be held responsible.

Campbell seemed content to allow Mr Salmond to talk over Mr Darling, often not allowing the former Chancellor of the Exchequer to answer the question fully.

And it had the effect of creating a rather unedifying spectacle with satirist Charlie Brooker best summing up the viewer's perspective on Twitter. "This sounds like eight debates at once," he wrote.

In fact, the debate was meant to have been pretty well-structured with opening statements followed by four defined sections - on the economy, on home affairs, on foreign affairs and on Scotland's immediate future after the referendum.

In the middle of the four topics, the pair also had the opportunity to cross-examine one another - but this had the purely predictable result of the audience just not being able to hear either of them.

Finally, there were the closing statements when at least Mr Salmond had the decency to allow a clearly defeated Mr Darling to speak uninterrupted at the end.

And so why, other than Mr Salmond's bawling tactics, had Mr Darling found things so tough?

Well, one thing the former Chancellor let slip quite early on in the debate was that Scotland would still be able to use the pound outside of a currency union.

Mr Salmond immediately seized on this - but Mr Darling correctly countered that such an arrangement would leave Scotland without access to a Central Bank and thus a lender of last resort.

Home affairs were tougher again for Labour MP Mr Darling as he stood on his podium having to defend some of the policies of David Cameron on the NHS and welfare cuts.

And there was a particularly hairy moment for him when an audience member accused Mr Darling of being a hypocrite because of his support, while in government, for NHS privatisation.

The MP for Edinburgh South West found the contest in the second half of the night more easy-going and there were fewer flashpoints.

The last section - on what will happen to Scotland after the vote - actually allowed some of the bitterness of the campaign to be tempered.

This was to the extent that, on account of victory in the referendum, Mr Salmond even offered Mr Darling a place in an all-party group to negotiate independence.

Mr Darling, of course, still hopes that will not be necessary - but it really is more difficult to tell after Mr Salmond's rambunctious performance last night. 

Ultimately, though, any swing to "Aye" will probably not be enough - and so my bold prediction for 18 September is still for a narrow "Naw" win of 53% to 47%.

Darling stymies Salmond in referendum debate

SCOTLAND First Minister Alec Salmond failed to make any headway against former Chancellor Alistair Darling in the first debate on the independence referendum last night.

Trailing in the polls, Scottish Nationalist leader Mr Salmond had hoped to use his well-known charisma in front of the cameras to turn the tide towards the Yes campaign.

But the immediate assessment afterwards actually suggested a victory for the usually mild-mannered Scottish Labour MP, Mr Darling.

A snap poll by ICM found only 37% thought that Mr Salmond had won against 47% for Mr Darling.

Now, this is largely in line with current polling on independence - but, in fact, even 16% of pre-debate Yes voters gave the win to Mr Salmond's opponent.

The reason behind that surely must be the failure of the SNP leader to address majors concerns over which currency Scotland would use if it failed to secure a currency union.

To boos ringing from the audience, Mr Salmond insisted an independent Scotland would be able to keep Sterling, stating "It is our pound as well as England's pound."

But, in a clever line, Mr Darling countered that Scotland leaving the UK and keeping the pound would be "a bit like getting a divorce and keeping the same joint bank account".

Moving on, Mr Salmond asked Mr Darling again and again if he would accept that Scotland could be a prosperous independent country, posing the question on no fewer than 21 occasions.

And, in his opening statement, the First Minister had correctly pointed to the fact that 49 of the 71 countries which took part in the recent Commonwealth Games in Glasgow were either the same size or smaller than Scotland.

He also said: "No one - absolutely no one - will do a better job of running Scotland than the people who live and work in Scotland."

Now, Mr Darling did not exactly entirely refute the claim that Scotland could be a self-sufficient country on its own.

Nevertheless, the main the crux of his argument was that going independent is simply too much of a risk, particularly as there would be no going back.

"There are times that, for the love of our family and the love of our country, it's sometimes best to say 'No' - not because we can't, but simply because it is not the best thing to do," he said.

"And, remember this, if we decide to leave, there is no going back - there's no second chance." 

Overall then, this was a difficult night for Mr Salmond who is fast running out of time to convince his electorate of the benefits of independence

In fact, there are now only six weeks until Scotland decides on 18 September.

It was an even worse night, though, for STV - the Scottish broadcaster whose only platform for viewers south of the border was an online stream.

Facing unprecedented demand, the stream unsurprisingly crashed, leading to many jokes on Twitter that its failure indicated Scotland was better off staying in the Union.

Certainly, though, a matter which actually concerns the whole of the UK should have been made available throughout the country - even if it is only those living north of the border who have the vote.

Thankfully, the rematch between Mr Salmond and Mr Darling - penned in for 25 August - will be shown live across the UK on the BBC.

And, if that date is confirmed, it means the debate will come just over three weeks before the referendum itself.

By then, Mr Salmond simply must have eaten into the lead which the Better Together campaign has comfortably held since the Edinburgh Agreement in 2012 set up the vote.

Indeed, on the evidence of last night, it already looks be the case that Mr Salmond has left his push for victory too late.

The quiet Budget

CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling offered few sweeteners for voters in the Budget, which he announced to the House of Commons today, just weeks before a general election.

This was not a classic pre-election Budget but, then again, it was not expected to be.

In fairness, Mr Darling promised little in the run-up and it was clear that the crippling deficit made it impossible for him to lure the electorate with some vote-winning policies.

The Chancellor admitted that the level of government borrowing is forecast to be £167billion this year and that public sector net debt will be 54% of GDP, rising to a frankly unsustainable 75% in 2014.

Although borrowing is actually £11billion down on the figure predicted in December's pre-Budget report, it is still a massive amount, and it has left Mr Darling's hands tied.

The Chancellor made few startling announcements with no changes to rates of VAT or income tax and a four-year freeze on the inheritance tax threshold.

But, as ever, duties increased on those little pleasures in life - alcohol, cigarettes and fuel.

The biggest rise was attributed to cider which will go up by 10% above inflation from midnight on Sunday.

Beers, wines and spirits will rise by 2% above inflation and tobacco duty is up 1% above inflation, both from midnight on Sunday.

Most distressingly of all, Mr Darling retained the increase in fuel duty, a terrible decision with an election expected in just 43 days from now.

Motorists can take a small morsel of consolation in that the rise will be staggered, with increases in April and October 2010, and January 2011, rather than being effective all in one go.

But surely the Chancellor has noticed that prices at the pump are already sky-high at the moment.

The average price for a litre of unleaded fuel at 117.3p - and more than two-thirds of that is tax. Add on road tax, insurance and breakdown cover and the car will soon be on its way to becoming a luxury item once again.

While Mr Darling said there would be "no giveaways" in this Budget, he has characterised it as "a Budget for recovery" but evidence of this was thin indeed.

The big announcement to scrap stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties valued below £250,000 is presumably meant to energise the property market.

But this only works if the potential buyers are in a position to afford a first home.

And, with interest rates low and credit hard to come by, it seems unlikely to benefit many people, especially as the duty will return in two years.

Meanwhile, the one-year business rate cut for companies will be wiped out by the failure to reverse the decision to increase the rate of employers' National Insurance contributions.

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg accurately described the Budget as "insubstantial waffle... built on growth figures that are unlikely to materialise".

It did all seems nothing more than hot air while, after weeks of the polls narrowing, Prime Minister Gordon Brown must fear a backlash over the fuel duty rise, one of today's few defining points.

The Budget has certainly meant danger for Labour in the last two years, as shown by the UK Polling Report blog.

The website explains, "In both cases Alistair Darling was forced to deliver news about just how bad the economic situation was. Both turned a Labour deficit of around about 6 points into a Conservative lead in the mid teens."

Of course, a swing in the polls may not happen this time with core support for both of the main parties hardening in the run-up to the election.

Undecided voters may also be put off the David Cameron's questionable Conservative commitment to cut certain services immediately in an emergency budget after the election.

What should also help Labour is that the economy is on slightly surer footing now than it was in 2008 and 2009.

But that is not saying much and neither was the Chancellor today in one of the dullest pre-election Budgets ever.

*For an at-a-glance guide at the Budget, see this listing on the BBC website.

Darling sets the dividing line

CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling gave a prelude to the election battleground in his Pre-Budget report to the Commons today.

Mr Darling backed up Prime Minister Gordon Brown's attacks on the Tories' inheritance tax plans by freezing the threshold at £325,000. He stated that raising it was simply not a priority at present.

In one of the more surprising moves of the day, Mr Darling announced an increase to National Insurance Contributions by 0.5% but this will not apply to those on salaries of £20,000 or less.

The policy does not come into effect for anyone until April 2011, however.

A much more regressive tax increase was the restoration of VAT to 17.5% from January 1 though at least it was not put up to 20% as feared in some quarters.

In an undoubtedly popular move with the electorate, Mr Darling announced the widely expected windfall tax of 50% on bankers' bonuses of more than £25,000.

To prevent the government from having to chase up hundreds of individuals, the tax will be charged to the company but it currently only lasts until April.

Nevertheless, this is still a further hit to high earners after last April's announcement that an income tax band of 50% will be applied from 2010-11 on salaries over £100,000.

Other attempts at winning over the electorate include a postponement of the 1p increase in corporation tax to help small businesses and a 2.5% increase in the state pension.

Liberal Democrats treasury spokesman Vince Cable said the budget was "good for bingo and boilers" after a seemingly random cut in bingo duty from 22% to 20% and the introduction of a boiler scrappage scheme.

But Mr Cable also joked that Mr Darling must have forgotten to print several pages of his report as no specific spending figures were given for any department.

Mr Darling vowed to maintain spending on frontline public services such as schools, hospitals and the police but seems to be hiding the true scale of the pain until after a general election.

The chancellor was unable to cover up Britain's black hole, however. He admitted that the economy had shrunk by 4.75% in the last year, a worse result than expected.

He was also forced to concede that government borrowing in the past year was an eye-watering £178bn, £3bn more than expected.

It was announced that borrowing in the next year will also be £3bn more than forecast in April's budget, further increasing Britain's massive deficit.

Unsurprisingly, the deficit will form the basis for the Tories' attacks in the run-up to the election.

Shadow chancellor George Osborne described the state of the economy as "a catastrophe", arguing that spending needs to be cut immediately. Mr Darling defended Labour's spending plans.

Welcome to the great debate that will form the centrepiece of the coming election coverage.

The black hole Budget

*Economy will shrink by 3.5%
*Government will borrow £606bn over the next four years
*New top rate of income tax at 50% from April 2010 on earnings above £150,000
*Petrol duty will rise by 2p from September and 1p above inflation for the next four years
*Alcohol and tobacco up by 2%

CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling will borrow a "staggering" sum of money after admitting the UK economy will suffer its worst year since 1945 in today's Budget Speech.

Mr Darling announced borrowing of £606bn over the next four years and repeated that spending the way out of a recession was the best way forward.

He forecasted that the economy will shrink by 3.5% during 2009 but expects it to grow by the end of the year.

The estimated decline of 3.5% is a significant revision from the prediction of 1% announced in the pre-Budget report in November.

And the £606bn figure follows borrowing of £90bn over the last financial year, more than the forecast of £78bn.

That brought the UK's total net debt to £743.6bn, more than half of the UK's GDP.

But he said he expects the economy will grow by 1.25% in 2010, rising to 3.5% in 2011 and will be aided by £15bn of "efficiency savings".

The figures contradict estimates by the International Monetary Fund that the economy will shrink by 4.1% this year and 0.4% in 2010.

And Conservative leader David Cameron referred to "Labour's decade of debt".

He mocked the government's attempts to eradicate child poverty and he criticised the "staggering" government borrowing proposals.

Mr Cameron said: "With debt like that, our children are going to be in poverty for decades... They will never forgive the people who have done this."

Mr Cameron added that borrowing is set to be worse than the 1970s when Labour Chancellor Denis Healey had to go to the IMF.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg referred to the Budget as a "mish-mash of recycled announcements". He also called for an end to the "pointless" VAT cut.

In the most striking announcement of the day, Mr Darling introduced a new top rate of income tax of 50% for those earning more than £150,000 from next April.

The increase from the 45% top rate announced in the pre-Budget report in November breaks a promise in the last Labour manifesto not to raise income tax.

And more bad news followed for motorists, drinkers and smokers. Petrol duty will increase by 2p in September and then by 1p above inflation for the next four years.

Alcohol and tobacco duties will both rise by 2% with immediate effect with the cost of a pint increasing by 1p and a bottle of win by 4p and a bottle of spirits by 13p.


Tax and NI Tables
As a former minion of HMRC, I have drawn up a tax and NI table below showing the amount of income tax and National Insurance due per month based upon annual salaries between £6000 and £100000.
The new personal allowance for this tax year (6 April 2009-5 April 2010) is 6475 with tax @20pc above this. Earnings above £43875 are taxed @40pc.
National Insurance is charged @11pc on earnings above £5720pa, then @1pc on earnings above £43875.
This works out as follows:
Gross salary £ 6k. Tax paid per annum £NIL. NatIns paid per annum £30 = £2.50 tax and NI per month
Gross salary £ 8k. Tax paid per annum £305. NatIns paid per annum £250= £46 per month
Gross salary £10k. Tax paid per annum £705. NatIns paid per annum £470= £97 per month
Gross salary £12k. Tax paid per annum £1105. NatIns paid per annum £690= £150 per month
Gross salary £14k. Tax paid per annum £1505. NatIns paid per annum £910= £201 per month
Gross salary £16k. Tax paid per annum £1905. NatIns paid per annum £1130= £252 per month
Gross salary £18k. Tax paid per annum £2305. NatIns paid per annum £1350= £305 per month
Gross salary £20k. Tax paid per annum £2705. NatIns paid per annum £1570= £357 per month
Gross salary £25k. Tax paid per annum £3705. NatIns paid per annum £2120= £485 per month
Gross salary £30k. Tax paid per annum £4705. NatIns paid per annum £2670= £614 per month
Gross salary £35k. Tax paid per annum £5705. NatIns paid per annum £3220= £743 per month
Gross salary £40k. Tax paid per annum £6705. NatIns paid per annum £3770= £873 per month
Gross salary £45k. Tax paid per annum £7930. NatIns paid per annum £4208= £1011 per month
Gross salary £50k. Tax paid per annum £9930. NatIns paid per annum £4258= £1182 per month
Gross salary £100k. Tax paid per annum £29930. NatIns paid per annum £12250= £3515 per month