CONSERVATIVE Party members will decide whether Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss becomes their next leader - and British Prime Minister - as an already brutal leadership contest meanders towards its end in the first week of September.
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr Sunak - who brought about the downfall of current PM Boris Johnson with his resignation from that role on 5 July - had been the early favourite with the bookmakers.
However, the MP for Richmond in North Yorkshire does not have a majority of the support from the Tory rank-and-file after his failure to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
Instead, it is Ms Truss who now leads the polling and the betting market.
The contest effectively began on 7 July when Mr Johnson finally caved in after the resignations of Mr Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid were followed by an excruciating day in Westminster amid pressure from his own Conservative MPs.
First, Mr Johnson faced criticism from all sides of the House of Commons in a brutal session of Prime Minister's Questions - then, shortly afterwards, the PM's whole tenure was torn apart by members of the Liaison Committee.
Indeed, it became apparent on social media during the meeting that Nadhim Zahawi, the new Chancellor appointed less than two full days previously, was among several members of the Cabinet waiting at Downing Street for Mr Johnson so that they could tell him he needed to resign.
Meanwhile, Huw Merriman - who was around the table in the Committee room - sent out his resignation letter on Twitter while sat just yards from the PM.
In all, there were more than 50 ministerial resignations, the most ever suffered by a Prime Minister - although this also shows just how bloated the government payroll had become under Mr Johnson.
The resignations included Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland Secretary, whose scathing letter read: "A decent and responsible Government relies on honesty, integrity and mutual respect.
"It is a matter of profound personal regret that I must leave Government as I no longer believe those values are being upheld."
Michelle Donelan, the Education Secretary, who again had been appointed less than 48 hours earlier, also stepped down.
Bizarrely, another Education minister Will Quince quit - then, following the resignation of Mr Johnson and the reshuffle which followed, the Colchester MP reversed this decision and accepted the role at Education again.
Michael Gove was branded "a snake" by a Downing Street insider after he was sacked from his position as Levelling Up Secretary - a flagship, if ineffective, policy of the government.
Altogether, though, it was a humiliating day for Mr Johnson.
Yet, as usual, his eventual downfall came from a situation which the Prime Minister could have easily avoided.
Former Deputy Chief Whip Chris Pincher was reappointed to that position by Mr Johnson in February 2022 - despite the Prime Minister having been warned about his past sexual misconduct on at least five separate occasions.
Until 5 July, Mr Johnson denied being aware of these prior concerns - but then he sheepishly admitted he had made a "bad mistake" by not acting on information which he had received.
Mr Johnson had been caught out completely - and, for many Conservative MPs, including those who had supported Mr Johnson in a Vote of No Confidence on 6 June prompted by Partygate, this was the final straw.
Of course, it should not have taken anywhere near as long as this.
Arguably, the Conservative Party as a whole started losing its moral compass a few years ago - and lost it completely after their selection of Mr Johnson in July 2019.
In fairness, Mr Johnson, in contrast to his extremely wealthy background, was portrayed as a man of the people - electoral gold dust who had been Mayor of London for two full terms despite the distinctly leftward shift taken by the capital during that time.
Moreover, Mr Johnson - having calculated back in 2016 that it was in his best interests to oppose his old Eton chum David Cameron by supporting Britain leaving the European Union - vowed to get Brexit done following the stalemate at Westminster under Theresa May.
This promise delivered an 80-seat majority to the Conservatives in a General Election in December 2019 as Labour under Jeremy Corbyn was crushed in its heartlands in the North, Midlands and Wales.
Immediately afterwards, it seemed like this might set up a decade or more of dominance for the Conservatives - but, in March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
From then onwards, nothing felt particularly normal anymore.
The Tories spaffed billions of pounds of taxpayers' money, wasting as much as £37billion on a grossly ineffective track-and-trace system in a period that only their friends and donors will look back upon with any affection.
Subsequently, to the despair of many of their low tax-supporting backers, the Conservatives raised National Insurance to pay for their profligacy.
Nevertheless, even as late as June last year, the Tories enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls following the successful roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Little by little, though, the bad news began to trickle through - and, in late 2021 through to 2022, that trickle turned into a flood of Tory sleaze and scandal, worse than anything which engulfed the John Major government of the 1990s.
There was bullying, bribery, and an unnamed MP who has been banned from the House of Commons after being arrested on suspicion of rape.
On the same day, 23 June, the Conservatives lost two by-elections as the so-called Red Wall seat of Wakefield returned to Labour while the Liberal Democrats took Tiverton and Honiton on a swing of almost 30%.
The seat in the Devon heartlands was subject to a by-election after former MP, Neil Parish, resigned after admitting to watching pornography in the Commons chamber.
More scandalously, the former MP for Wakefield, Imran Ahmad Khan, caused a by-election after he was convicted of child sexual assault and jailed for 18 months.
Standards in public life have never been lower, something which was also quite apparent during the fiasco which has become known as Partygate.
In all, the Metropolitan Police issued 126 fixed penalty notices to 83 individuals whom the police found had committed offences under COVID-19 regulations, including one each to Mr Johnson, his wife Carrie Johnson, and Mr Sunak.
Civil Servant Sue Gray's final report in May 2022 described multiple events of excessive drinking and a lack of respect shown to cleaning and security staff.
One such event which incurred fines was on the eve of the funeral for Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh, at which the Queen sat alone on a pew in line with social distancing restrictions as she said goodbye to her husband.
Many other people did the same - and then there were the even less fortunate, whose relatives died in care homes, unable to be visited by those who loved them most.
COVID-19 ravaged care homes in particular after perhaps the most ill-thought out policy of them all during this period as patients were released from hospital back into care despite still being infectious.
For this alone, Mr Johnson should have resigned or been asked to resign.
Better late than never? Ask those who have suffered in any way over the past 18 months since Mr Johnson gained his mammoth majority...
•
Onto the contest for the new leader then - and, with 11 initial candidates, the Conservative Party had the appearance of a directionless, destructive mess.
Mr Javid, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, and complete outsider Rehman Christi withdrew before the contest actually officially began, with Gillingham and Rainham MP, Mr Christi, also knocked out after receiving absolutely no support at all.
At the first proper ballot, Mr Zahawi and former Cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt were eliminated.
However, only clueless lawyer, Attorney General Suella Braveman, went out in the second round, leaving five candidates remaining ahead of a series of fiery debates on 15 July (shown by Channel Four) and 17 July (shown by ITV).
Following the first debate, backbencher Tom Tughendhat failed to get through the third ballot - then, after the second debate, another round of voting took place resulting in the end of the ambitions of Kemi Badenoch.
A third debate was due to occur and be televised by Sky News on 19 July - but this was cancelled at short notice.
Instead, a further ballot was held and spelled the end of the road for Ms Mordaunt even though she had placed in the top two in each of the first four votes.
Ms Mordaunt's lead over Ms Truss had narrowed considerably in the third and fourth ballots, however, after she had struggled in the debates.
As a result, Mr Sunak and Ms Truss have emerged as the top two - and it would be fair to say that they are not exactly massive fans of each other.
On the economy, for instance, Mr Sunak accused Ms Truss in the debate on Monday of risking a huge increase in interest rates with her plans to cut tax immediately.
For her part, Ms Truss responded by suggesting Mr Sunak was "scaremongering" and providing a "Project Fear" forecast in a term lifted directly from the Brexit referendum.
In that vote, Ms Truss - although now a Brexit supporter - campaigned for Remain, while Mr Sunak backed Leave.
Of course, this was something which he swiftly pointed out to his rival after that "Project Fear" barb from Ms Truss.
The candidates are scheduled to take each other on in a further televised exchange on 4 August (Sky News), at around the same time 160,000 members' ballot papers will be distributed.
In the meantime, Mr Johnson has actually continued to wield a reasonable amount of power over his government, even his since resignation.
Tobias Elwood lost the Conservative whip last week, after he confirmed he had refused to back the Prime Minister in a House of Commons confidence vote.
Mr Elwood, a former Lieutenant Colonel in the British Army who gave mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to police officer PC Keith Palmer after the terrorist attack on Westminster in March 2017, deserves better.
However, the Bournemouth East MP is probably happy enough no longer to be tarnished by this administration and this Prime Minister.
In his final appearance at PMQs last Wednesday, Mr Johnson defiantly declared "Hasta la vista, baby" and received a standing ovation from most of the Tory MPs.
It is difficult to decide which was more cringeworthy - and so, unlike the risible Nadine Dorries, please do not weep for Mr Johnson.
The Prime Minister may seek sympathy after failing badly in his dream job - but he will no doubt use his privilege to get another highly-paid role elsewhere.
Hopefully, we will not be seeing him any time soon.
REMAINING CANDIDATES
• Rishi SUNAK
- MP for Richmond (Yorks) since 2015
- Chancellor of the Exchequer until July 2022
• Liz TRUSS
- MP for South West Norfolk since 2010
- Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, and a former Secretary of State for International Trade
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP ELECTION • Round-by-round
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | ||||||||||||
| • Rishi SUNAK | 88 | 24.6% | 101 | +13 | 28.2% | 115 | +14 | 32.1% | 118 | +3 | 33.1% | 137 | +19 | 38.3% | ||
| • Liz TRUSS | 50 | 14.0% | 64 | +14 | 17.9% | 71 | +7 | 19.8% | 86 | +15 | 24.1% | 113 | +27 | 31.6% | ||
| • Penny MORDAUNT | 67 | 18.7% | 83 | +16 | 23.2% | 82 | -1 | 22.9% | 92 | +10 | 25.8% | 105 | +13 | 29.3% | ||
| • Kemi BADENOCH | 40 | 11.2% | 49 | +9 | 13.7% | 58 | +9 | 16.2% | 59 | +1 | 16.5% | |||||
| • Tom TUGENDHAT | 37 | 10.3% | 32 | -5 | 8.9% | 31 | -1 | 8.7% | ||||||||
| • Suella BRAVEMAN | 32 | 8.9% | 27 | -5 | 7.5% | |||||||||||
| • Nadhim ZAHAWI | 25 | 7.0% | ||||||||||||||
| • Jeremy HUNT | 18 | 5.0% |
