Wednesday 18 March 2015

Budget 2015: Osborne serves up pre-election Budget

CHANCELLOR George Osborne today delivered his sixth Budget in the last major event of the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ahead of the general election on 7 May.

There are now exactly 50 days to go until polling day, something you could definitely tell from an hour-long speech which was dripping in politics.

For a start, Mr Osborne has craftily adjusted his accounts so that he now forecasts there will only be a £7bn surplus to the government in 2019-20.

This projection is down sharply on the £23bn figure mentioned in the Autumn Statement as recently as December - and it is a move which directly quells Labour's oft-repeated clam that public spending under the Tories would return to levels not seen since the 1930s.

Instead, Mr Osborne can point out that the public spending under his stewardship would be no lower than it was in 2000 when Labour's Gordon Brown was in charge.

Another highly political manouevre came in the reduction of the Lifetime Allowance for pension savings from £1.25m to £1m.

Labour had proposed the same cut as a way of funding a decrease in tuition fees from £9,000-a-year to £6,000 - but now Ed Miliband looks rather cornered by both coalition parties.

Liberal Democrats had already criticised the fee cut as one which would, in reality, only benefit graduates who go on to be wealthy enough anyway.

And now the Tories can ask again where the money for it will come from if Labour is intent on balancing the books.

Elsewhere in his report, Mr Osborne identified policies clearly aimed at key voters ahead of the election.

In her biggest giveaway, first-time buyers could benefit from a Help-to-Buy ISA in which aspiring homeowners who save up to £200-a-month receive a £50 bonus from the government.

Meanwhile, self employed workers will not weep at the the thought of no longer having to pay Class 2 National Insurance contributions - nor, for that matter, lament the death of the dreaded self assessment tax return.

Savers will have been pleased to see the introduction of an annual personal savings allowance of £1,000, something which will take 95% of people out of paying any tax on their investments.

And even the announcement of £7bn-worth of funding in public transport in the south west was all geared towards the Conservatives gaining ground in a crucial election battleground against the Lib Dems.

Of course, there were the usual sweeteners - a penny off the price of a pint, a 2% cut in the duty on cider and Scottish whisky, and another fuel duty freeze.

But, for Labour, it was all about what was not in the Budget - namely the lack of any mention of investment in the NHS or other major public services.

That omission feeds neatly into the narrative that Prime Minister David Cameron is avoiding debate on the big issues ahead of the election - quite literally in some cases.

Mr Miliband also attacked the Chancellor on his idea that the growth in the economy was part of a national recovery, pointing out that there are more people with zero-hour contracts than the populations of Leeds, Glasgow and Cardiff combined.

This claim feeds into Labour's other major argument - that the government simply cannot be trusted to tell the truth having broken its promises on clearing the deficit and reducing immigration.

Labour's big problem on this front, however, is that polls show Mr Miliband and his Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls are themselves still not as trusted on the big issue of the economy as Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne.

Consequently, it can be summed up that we have an unpopular government and a still untrusted opposition. No wonder there is stalemate in the polls.

Of course, stalemate skewers the debate in that it allows both main parties to cherry-pick the most favourable statistics backing up their cause.

Conservatives will point towards the national polls and various election prediction websites which predict they will have the most seats.

And, against that, Labour will understandably make a great deal of Lord Ashcroft's latest poll of the vital marginal seats which shows them making several comfortable gains.

However, any Labour progress looks certain to be undermined by big losses in their former heartland north of the border to the Scottish Nationalists.

Indeed, just this week Mr Miliband was forced to rule out the prospect of a formal coalition between Labour and the SNP.

Still, despite plentiful bluster over the Budget from both the Conservatives and Labour, neither looks any closer to securing a majority.

Instead, the election has already turned into a debate over which main party can hold the greater mandate by having more votes and/or seats.

With the Lib Dems still collapsing and increased support of UKIP and the Greens likely far too thinly spread, a minority government looks like being the likeliest outcome.

Ultimately then, there was not enough in this Budget to make it a game-changer - and so, after 7 May, the SNP could yet still hold considerable influence even in a confidence and supply arrangement.

As such, the next weeks - and the few weeks after that - could be a very bumpy ride indeed. Strap yourselves in.

2015 BUDGET DETAILS AT-A-GLANCE
State of the economy
*OBR confirms 2.6% growth in 2014, and forecasts growth will be 2.5% in 2015, 2.3% in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and 2.4% in 2019.
*National debt will fall from 80.4% of GDP to 80.2% in 2015-16, 79.8% in 2016-17, 77.8% in 2017-18, 74.8% in 2018-19 and 71.6% in 2019-20 - due to a sale of bank shares (£9bn Lloyds shares to be sold) and reduction in interest payments
*Borrowing in 2014-15 will be £90bn, falling to £75.3bn in 2015-16, £39.4bn in 2016-17, and £12.8bn in 2017-18. There is forecast to be a £5.2bn surplus in 2018-19 and £7bn in 2019-20 (cf. £23bn figure in the autumn statement).
*OBR forecast for inflation in 2015 is 0.2%.

Cuts in the next Parliament (£30bn to be saved by 2017-18)
*£13bn from government departments
*£12bn from the welfare budget
*£5bn from tax avoidance/evasion.

Taxation
*Personal tax-free allowance rises from £10600 in 2015-16 to £10800 in 2016-17 and £11000 in 2017-18. Above-inflation increase in the higher rate.
*Abolition of requirement to complete annual self-assessment tax return, to be replaced by digital accounts
*Abolition of Class 2 NICs for self employed people altogether in next parliament
*New personal savings allowance of £1000 to take 95% of savers out of tax on investments altogether
*Abolition of employers' NI for employing under-21s and, from next April, for employing apprentices
*Rate of new transferable married couples' allowance to be increased to £1100
*Corporation tax set at 20%
*Regional devolution: Manchester and Cambridge allowed to keep 100% of additional growth in business rates
*Small business rate relief extended until March 2016
*Bank levy raised to 0.21%, raising an additional £900m per year
*Charities will be able to claim automatic Gift Aid on first £8,000 of small donations, up from £5,000
*Petroleum Revenue Tax cut from 50% to 35% to help North Sea Oil industry

Levies
*Alcohol: Cut for the third year in a row with another penny off a pint, Scotch whisky and cider duty cut by 2%, wine duty frozen
*Cigarettes: No changes to those already announced
*Fuel: Increase scheduled for September cancelled

Investment
*£25m fund to help veterans, including nuclear test veterans
*Church repair fund trebled
*New investment for London transport projects
*£7bn transport investment for the south west region

Miscellaneous
*Design of a new 12-sided £1 coin to be released in 2017
*New help-to-buy ISA for first-time buyers
*Osborne cuts the maximum size of large pension pots from £1.25m to £1m
*Toll rates reduced for Severn Crossing from 2018

Earlier Budget reports from Mr Osborne 2011 2012 2013 2014

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