Friday 19 September 2014

Salmond steps down as Scotland says Naw - for now

Should Scotland be an independent country?
AYE
NAW
44.7%
55.3%
National turnout: 84.6%

ALEC SALMOND resigned as First Minister after Scotland rejected independence and voted to remain part of the United Kingdom in a historic referendum last night.

National turnout was almost 85% as the Better Together campaign topped two million votes, and eventually finished ahead of Yes Scotland by 383,937 ballots.

The pattern of the night's results from the 32 council areas became quickly established with reports of disappointed Yes campaigners knowing they had not done as well as the final polls suggested.

In fact, the first seven local authorities - including the islands of Orkney and Shetland - all voted in favour of Naw to varying extents with the tightest race of the whole poll coming in Inverclyde.

There, Better Together beat Yes Scotland by just 86 votes and it would have been quite amazing if the overall race had been so close.

Dundee became the first area to vote Aye, swiftly followed by West Dunbartonshire - and, for a brief few moments, the overall running totals tightened up.

However, a whole slew of results - in Midlothian, East Lothian, Stirling, Falkirk, Angus, Dumfries, East Renfewshire, East Dunbartonshire, and Aberdeen - then came in for Naw. 

It meant that, even with Scotland's biggest city Glasgow voting 53-47 to leave the Union, the Yes campaign was still behind.

Then, Scotland's former and present capitals both swung behind Better Together. Perth and Kinross went Naw by a 60-40 margin while Edinburgh was just as decisive with its 61-39 breakdown. 


By the time of the Edinburgh result, the BBC had already called the election in favour of Better Together, doing so at 5.14am with six councils left to report. 

Fife officially took Naw over the winning line shortly afterwards with the penultimate result in Moray and the last result from Highland also both voting to reject independence. 

Ultimately, only four local authority areas - Glasgow, Dundee, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire - voted Aye in deep contrast to the state of the political map in 2011. 

Back then, just over three years ago, Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party swept the Central Belt and gained an unexpected majority in the devolved Scottish Parliament in Holyrood. 

Indeed, it was this overwhelming mandate which rather forced Mr Salmond's hand. 

His party, set up in 1934 with the stated aim of breaking away from the Union, had a majority in a system which was not even supposed to produce such results. 

And so, if Mr Salmond had not offered a referendum after his 2011 result, he would have been accused by his opponents of running scared. 

The caution at holding a vote came from the fact that, while his Scottish Nationalists were a popular alternative to the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats in elections, actual support for independence hung at around just over a third. 

Nevertheless, this campaign soon changed that. Sometimes feisty and always passionate, the last few weeks have seen an independence movement growing in confidence, belief and numbers on the ground. 

Aye supporters even gained a whole load of concessions from the three Westminster leaders in the closing days before the ballot. 

In truth, the Westminster establishment was running scared after a single, probably rogue, opinion poll put Yes Scotland ahead for the first time with less than two weeks to go. 

Business as usual in the House of Commons was postponed as Prime Minister David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Leader of the Opposition Ed Miliband all hastily hopped on a train. 

Former Prime Minister and Labour leader Gordon Brown also became influential in the process, setting out a tight timetable for further devolution which Mr Cameron is now almost obliged to follow. 

It means that, while Mr Cameron may not have overseen the break-up of the Union, the coming constitutional changes will cause him a major headache ahead of a general election less than eight months away.

What also became clear is that the cry of an overhaul of British politics was not just coming from Scotland

The long-standing West Lothian question - where Scottish MPs in Westminster can vote on English-only matters - must surely now be properly addressed. 

Similarly, the Barnett formula - devised in the 1970s with the aim of sharing public spending fairly - has become massively outdated with Wales and some English regions now badly losing out to Scotland. 

Despite the Westminster leaders' vow to keep it, this is an imbalance which needs a review, even to the admission of the creator of the original formula, Joel Barnett. 

And this is especially the case with the Scottish Parliament effectively getting Home Rule with further powers over tax, spending and welfare arrangements. 

Some of the more embittered Aye campaigners have considered last night's result to be the very definition of fear triumphing over hope - but this is far too simplistic a view. 

Concerns over currency and the economy in general still remained as legitimate as ever, no matter how many times Mr Salmond blindly and falsely accused his opponents of scaremongering. 

With his dream of an independent Scotland over, Mr Salmond said this afternoon he would quit as First Minister in November.

But, despite his decision, his dream of an independent Scotland is not over altogether. Opinion polls showed the younger generation to be much more enthusiastic about independence than older folk. 

Aye led in every age-group except for the over-60s and it looks as if the overwhelming 'small-c' conservatism of the 'grey vote' was the decisive factor in keeping Scotland in the Union. 

The direction of travel is undeniable - and, while Mr Salmond will now not be the leader to achieve it, he made a point in his concession speech of stating Scotland had rejected independence "at this stage".

Should auld acquaintance be forgot? Not until the next time at least.

FULL RESULTS
SCOTLANDAYE
NAW
Local authority area (turnout)44.7%
55.3%
Aberdeen city (82%)59,390 (41.4%)84,094 (58.6%)
Aberdeenshire (87%)71,337 (39.6%)108,606 (60.4%)
Angus (86%)35,044 (43.7%)45,192 (56.3%)
Argyll and Bute (88%)26,324 (41.5%)37,143 (58.5%)
Clackmannanshire (89%)16,350 (46.2%)19,036 (53.8%)
Dumfries and Galloway (88%)36,614 (34.3%)70,039 (65.7%)
Dundee city (79%)53,620 (57.4%)39,880 (42.6%)
East Ayrshire (85%)39,762 (47.2%)44,442 (52.8%)
East Dunbartonshire (91%)30,624 (38.8%)48,314 (61.2%)
East Lothian (88%)27,467 (38.3%)44,283 (61.7%)
East Renfrewshire (90%)24,287 (36.8%)41,690 (63.2%)
City of Edinburgh (84%)123,927 (38.9%)194,638 (61.1%)
Falkirk (89%)50,489 (46.5%)58,030 (53.5%)
Fife (84%)114,148 (45.0%)139,788 (55.0%)
Glasgow City (75%)194,739 (53.5%)169,347 (46.5%)
Highland (4am)78,069 (47.1%)87,739 (52.9%)
Inverclyde (87%)27,243 (49.9%)27,329 (50.1%)
Midlothian (87%)26,370 (43.7%)33,972 (56.3%)
Moray (85%)27,232 (42.5%)36,935 (57.5%)
North Ayrshire (84%)47,072 (49.0%)49,016 (51.0%)
North Lanarkshire (84%)115,783 (51.1%)110,922 (48.9%)
Perth and Kinross (87%)41,475 (39.8%)62,714 (60.2%)
Renfrewshire (87%)55,466 (47.2%)62,067 (52.8%)
Scottish Borders (87%)27,906 (33.4%)55,553 (66.6%)
South Ayrshire (86%)34,402 (42.1%)47,247 (57.9%)
South Lanarkshire (85%)100,990 (45.3%)121,800 (54.7%)
Stirling (90%)25,010 (40.2%)37,153 (59.8%)
West Dunbartonshire (88%)33,720 (54.0%)28,776 (46.0%)
West Lothian (86%)53,342 (44.8%)65,682 (55.2%)
Na h-Eileanan Siar (86%)9,195 (46.6%)10,544 (53.4%)
Orkney Islands (84%)4,883 (32.8%)10,004 (67.2%)
Shetland Islands (84%)5,669 (36.3%)9,951 (63.7%)
Totals (popular vote):1,617,989
2,001,926

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