Thursday, 6 October 2011

Cat fight overshadows Conservative conference



A DRAB conference season from all of the parties briefly sparked into life thanks to an extraordinary spat between two ministers over an asylum seeker with a cat.

Home Secretary Theresa May was first to unleash her claws at the Conservative conference in Manchester.

She used her speech to deride the Human Rights Act and claimed it had saved a South American man from deportation "because - and I am not making this up - he had a pet cat".

Mrs May was treading a dangerous line - surely her script-writers should have worked out that such a ridiculous claim would not stand up to scrutiny.

Indeed, it was unsurprisingly soon rebuffed by top judges from the Judicial Communications Office and Mrs May's Conservative colleague, the Justice Secretary Ken Clarke.

But, despite scorn being cast upon her comments, Mrs May had still done enough to play to the gallery who lapped it up gleefully.

And Mr Clarke, who has always cut a rather controversial and sometimes lonely figure with his pro-Europe stance in a largely Eurosceptic party, was also rebuked by Prime Minister David Cameron in his keynote speech.

Mr Cameron, who was, in fairness, attempting to make light of the issue, referred to the fact that he had been involved in recording audio books for the blind as part of a social project being run at the conference.

He said: "There was one book that I chose personally. I said 'Ken, this one's called Crime And Punishment and I want you to read it, twice'."

That appeared to be a slight on Mr Clarke's generally softer stance to sentencing than most of his party and, indeed, some of those on the opposition benches.

However, on a separate issue, Foreign Secretary William Hague was unable to appease the Tory right as the party's divisions over Europe continued to bubble under the surface.

Mr Hague ruled out a referendum on Britain's membership to the European Union, arguing one would be called only to approve or reject further transfers of sovereignty. "Our place is in the European Union," he said.

Nevertheless, this still did not stop the rather one-eyed populist press from claiming a breakthrough - most notably, here in the Daily Mail, and here in the Daily Express.

But those on the Tory right knew where they really stood after Mr Hague's speech, and some inevitably grumbled about taking their vote to UKIP instead.

Of course, although the number of defectors may actually be small, the issue of Europe still leaves Mr Cameron in a political quandary.

Does he pander to the right in league with the tabloid press or does he continue to alienate them and risk failing again to get an outright majority at the next general election?

For now, the coalition with the Liberal Democrats forces Mr Cameron's hand in that he must do the latter.

And, as the world economy dives into perhaps "the worst financial crisis in history", there seems much about Mr Cameron's premiership which is - frustratingly for him - outside of his control.

Certainly, when he launched his election manifesto over 18 months ago on Westminster Bridge, his vision of a Big Society was at the forefront of his objectives.

Now, in power, he seemingly faces a daily battle just to stop society from falling apart and so it is to his credit then that his approval rating remains as 'high' as it does.

In YouGov's weekly poll for the Sunday Times, Mr Cameron's rating is steady at -8, well ahead of Labour leader Ed Miliband who is on -32.

Similarly, the same report by Populus for Lord Ashcroft, 'The Leadership Factor' - which labelled Mr Miliband as "weird" - was much kinder to Mr Cameron whom the general public consider to be "determined" and "competent".

However, none of the party leaders scored particularly highly when people were asked who had the best policies on a wide-range of issues.

Of the ten areas selected, the 'none of the above' party led in eight with the Tories leading only in two categories - cutting the deficit and reforming welfare.

And so, while Mr Cameron is more well-liked than Mr Miliband, you would be hard-pushed still to argue that the current Prime Minister has widespread popular appeal.

Next year marks the 20th anniversary since the Conservatives last won an outright majority at a general election.

Once considered the natural party of government, Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes recently pointed out: "The Tory party is absolutely not the dominant force in British politics that it used to be."

As the UK Polling Report website notes, Mr Cameron and his party still have an image problem in vast swathes of the country up north.

Indeed, in some areas, the spectre of Thatcherism is so toxic that it is hard to see, now over 20 years on, the Tories ever recovering their ground.

This continued lack of presence in the north is especially problematic for the Conservatives as the retained first past the post system requires them still to win yet more seats to gain a majority.

Even accounting for the collapse in the Lib Dem vote, the rise of the Scottish Nationalists and the overall representation of other parties may still prevent there being a decisive result.

As the Britain Votes blog explains: "At the 2010 general election, 86 seats were won by parties other than Labour or the Conservatives.

"The result of that is, whichever of Britain's two major political parties comes out on top, they need to beat the other by 88 seats just to get a majority of two"

"The Conservatives' 48 seat advantage over Labour last year would have given them a majority in all post-war elections up until 1997.

"Instead, [Mr] Cameron ended up 20 seats shy, and more like 40 short of a workable majority. The worrying conclusion from all this is that Britain could be heading towards a state of perpetual hung parliament."

Of course, Mr Cameron was not slow in congratulating the work of the campaigners who argued against the Alternative Vote - it was, in fact, the second item of his speech.

What delicious irony it would be if the retained ever-so reliable old system can only provide us with another stalemate in 2015!

Perpetual hung parliament under first past the post? That would really set the cat among the pigeons.

No comments:

Post a Comment