1 MANCHESTER UNITED (P21 W17 D1 L3 F54 A28 Pts 52)
Festive form: DWWW
FA Cup: 3R v West Ham United (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 4-5 aet v Chelsea (A) in fourth round
Europe: Last 16 v Real Madrid (A) on 13 February/(H) on 5 March
Top scorer: Robin van Persie (16)
Sack race: Alex Ferguson (manager since November 1986) 100/1
Original prediction: 2nd
Manchester United are halfway to their 20th league title by the admission of their own manager Alex Ferguson after a fruitful, if somewhat controversial, festive period. Ferguson has not been slow in shouting his mouth off in recent weeks, ludicrously claiming that Robin Van Persie could have been killed after Swansea's Ashley Williams blasted the ball at him from close range in a 1-1 draw. Then, following the 4-3 victory over Newcastle on Boxing Day, during which Fergie lambasted the officials and yet served no punishment, the Scot disgracefully labelled his opponents as a "wee club in the north east". At least this alleged knight of the realm refrained from any other notable comments after six goals without reply against West Brom (2-0) and Wigan (4-0). And, while it pains me to say it, Ferguson is right to be confident of another title despite the Old Trafford club blowing a similar-sized lead last season. The difference is that, this year, the Red Devils have Van Persie scoring on an almost weekly basis. It was, indeed, £24m well-spent in the summer, as even Man City manager Roberto Mancini has conceded.
2 MANCHESTER CITY (P21 W13 D6 L2 F41 A19 Pts 45)
Festive form: WLWW
FA Cup: 3R v Watford (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 2-4 aet v Aston Villa (H) in third round
Europe: Knocked out at Champions League group stage
Top scorer: Edin Dzeko (9)
Sack race: Roberto Mancini (since December 2009) 12/1
Original prediction: Champions
Manchester City only dropped three points over Christmas, as Sunderland repeated their 2012 New Year's Day win on Boxing Day - but it was still enough for the defending champions to lose more ground to rivals Man United. The festive period actually started well for Roberto Mancini's men as they eked out a 1-0 win over Reading while the Red Devils were held to a 1-1 draw by Swansea. However, it changed on Boxing Day with that defeat on Wearside while, in the meantime, Man United beat Newcastle 4-3 to go seven points clear. Man City then got their scoring act together for a 4-3 win of their own - against Norwich, before prevailing 3-0 on New Year's Day against Stoke. However, the fact remains that the Blues are six points and a massive 18 goals down on this stage last season.
3 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (P21 W12 D3 L6 F39 A27 Pts 39)
Festive form: DWWW
FA Cup: 3R v Coventry City (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Norwich City (A) in fourth round
Europe: Europa League last 32 v Olympique Lyonnais (H) on 14 February/(A) on 21 February
Top scorer: Jermian Defoe (10)
Sack race: Andre Villas-Boas (since July 2012) 50/1
Original prediction: 5th
Tottenham Hotspur moved into third position over the Christmas holidays with 10 points out of 12 as they continue their strong form under Andre Villas-Boas. Opening the festive period with a dominant performance in a slightly disappointing 0-0 draw with Stoke, Spurs found their scoring form with a 4-0 thumping of beleaguered Aston Villa before successive comeback wins over Sunderland (2-1) and Reading (3-1). Villas-Boas' old club from across the capital may have a game in hand but the north Londoners still look good at this stage for a second consecutive top four finish and, barring a repeat of last season's extraordinary circumstances, Champions League football in 2013-14.
4 CHELSEA (P20 W11 D5 L4 F39 A19 Pts 38)
Festive form: WWWL
FA Cup: 3R v Southampton (A) on 5 January
League Cup: SF v Swansea City (H) on 9 January/(A) on 23 January
Europe: Knocked out at Champions League group stage. Europa League last 32 v Sparta Prague (A) on 14 February/(H) on 21 February
Top scorer: Juan Mata/Fernando Torres (7)
Sack race: Rafael Benitez (since November 2012) 16/1
Original prediction: 3rd
Just when it seemed Rafael Benitez was starting to win over the Chelsea fans following his controversial appointment, the Blues lose 1-0 to bottom-side Queens Park Rangers in a west London derby. The Stamford Bridge club had started the Christmas period with an 8-0 thumping of Aston Villa before a 1-0 win at Norwich, and an excellent 2-1 comeback victory against Everton. However, defeat to the Rs on 2 January has left Benitez's men in fourth, 14 points adrift of Man United, leaving owner Roman Abramovich looking at the cups again for success this season.
5 EVERTON (P21 W9 D9 L3 F35 A26 Pts 36)
Festive form: WWLW
FA Cup: 3R v Cheltenham Town (A) on 7 January
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Leeds United (A) in third round
Top scorer: Marouane Fellaini (8)
Sack race: David Moyes (since March 2002) 66/1
Original prediction: 8th
Everton maintained their assault on a Champions League place after a trio of 2-1 wins from their Christmas and New Year matches away at West Ham and Newcastle, and at home against Wigan. In between, on 30 December, the Toffees came unstuck by the same score to Chelsea, having taken the lead courtesy of Steven Pienaar inside two minutes. Chelsea's Frank Lampard-inspired comeback brought an end to Everton's unbeaten home league record for this campaign. But the last time that the Merseysiders had as many as 36 points after 21 games was in 2007-08 when they finished fifth, suggesting they will go close to the top four again this time.
6 ARSENAL (P20 W9 D7 L4 F40 A22 Pts 34)
Festive form: WWD
FA Cup: 3R v Swansea City (A) on 6 January
League Cup: lost 2-3 on penalties (after 1-1 draw) v Bradford City (A) in fifth round
Europe: Last 16 v Bayern Munich (H) on 19 February/(A) on 13 March
Top scorer: Theo Walcott (8)
Sack race: Arsene Wenger (since October 1996) 25/1
Original prediction: 4th
Just when it looked as if Arsenal were hitting some form, with a streak of four successive league wins culminating in a 7-3 thrashing of Newcastle, the Gunners shoot themselves in the foot. As brilliant as they were against the Magpies on 29 December at the Emirates, Arsene Wenger's men were back to their frustrating best as they toiled to a 1-1 draw away at Southampton. Top scorer Theo Walcott - who hit a hat-trick against the Toon - inadvertently caused an own goal for the equaliser against the Saints. However, his long-term future at Arsenal player remains as uncertain as the Gunners' bid to make it in the Champions League for a 16th successive season.
7 WEST BROMWICH ALBION (P21 W10 D3 L8 F29 A27 Pts 33)
Festive form: WWLL
FA Cup: 3R v Queens Park Rangers (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Liverpool (H) in third round
Top scorer: Romelu Lukaku (7)
Sack race: Steve Clarke (since June 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 18th
West Bromwich Albion's recent inconsistent form continued over the Christmas and New Year period with two 2-1 wins against Norwich and Queens Park Rangers, followed by two defeats, away at Man United (0-2) and, less acceptably, at home to Fulham (1-2). However, it should be noted that, even in defeat in the match against the Cottagers, West Brom looked the better side for good-length periods and missed some glorious chances. Immediately before Christmas, the Baggies followed up four league wins with just one point from 12 - and yet they remain in seventh. Indeed, if the form of Steve Clarke's men can become less bipolar, the Midlands could remain in the shake-up for the European places for a while yet.
8 LIVERPOOL (P21 W8 D7 L6 F34 A26 Pts 31)
Festive form: WLWW
FA Cup: 3R v Mansfield Town (A) on 6 January
League Cup: lost 1-3 v Swansea City (H) in fourth round
Europe: Europa League last 32 v Zenit St Petersburg (A) on 14 February/(H) on 21 February
Top scorer: Luis Suarez (15)
Sack race: Brendan Rodgers (since June 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 7th
Three decent wins out of four for Liverpool made this a highly satisfying - if not perfect - Christmas. Luis Suarez was in excellent form over the festive period, twice hitting braces in a 3-0 wins either side of the New Year against Queens Park Rangers and Sunderland. The Reds also opened up this busy spell of fixtures with a 4-0 thumping of Fulham, meaning the goal difference has certainly been boosted in recent games. However, it did take a bit of damage at the Britannia Stadium where Stoke prevailed 3-1 despite Brendan Rodgers' men taking a second-minute lead thanks to Steven Gerrard's penalty. Nevertheless, Suarez's form points to the Anfield club avoiding another embarrassing finish outside the top seven this season.
9 SWANSEA CITY (P21 W7 D8 L6 F31 A26 Pts 29)
Festive form: DDWD
FA Cup: 3R v Arsenal (H) on 6 January
League Cup: SF v Chelsea (A) on 9 January/(H) on 23 January
Top scorer: Miguel 'Michu' Perez Cuesta (13)
Sack race: Michael Laudrup (since June 2012) 50/1
Original prediction: 17th
Swansea City went through the Christmas and New Year period unbeaten but a spate of draws has prevented them from climbing the table any higher than a still admittedly impressive ninth place. Michael Laudrup's men were resolute in a 1-1 draw against Man United before a much more disappointing stalemate against Reading (0-0). Danny Graham and Jonathan de Guzman then scored as the Welsh club recorded a fourth away win of the campaign by taking the three points at Fulham before Graham struck again late on to rescue a point against Aston Villa. It shows just how far Swansea have come in that they were expected to win that game easily against the struggling Villains, and they would have if they had taken some excellent chances early on. Keeping a hold of Michu is vital for the Swans as they eye a Cup final appearance in 2013.
10 STOKE CITY (P21 W6 D11 L4 F21 A20 Pts 29)
Festive form: DWDL
FA Cup: 3R v Crystal Palace (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 3-4 aet v Swindon Town (H) in second round
Top scorer: Jonathan Walters (5)
Sack race: Tony Pulis (since June 2006) 50/1
Original prediction: 12th
Stoke City remain the only team in the Premier League this season with an unbeaten home record, having last lost a league game at the Britannia back in February 2012. Their good form in front of their own fans has given the Potters a genuine chance of recording a top-half finish in the top flight for the first time since 1981, and five points from the four festive fixtures - courtesy of draws against Tottenham (0-0) and Southampton (3-3), and a win over Liverpool (3-1) - has put Tony Pulis' men in 10th. However, Stoke will need more goals if they are indeed to stay there, having scored on average just a goal per game so far. Instead, the Potters' strength has been at the back with the defence keeping an amazing nine clean sheets in 21 games.
11 WEST HAM UNITED (P20 W7 D5 L8 F24 A24 Pts 26)
Festive form: LLW
FA Cup: 3R v Manchester United (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 1-4 v Wigan Athletic (H) in third round
Top scorer: Kevin Nolan (5)
Sack race: Sam Allardyce (since June 2011) 40/1
Original prediction: 14th
It was a happy New Year's Day for West Ham United who won for the first time in five games to remain firmly in mid-table. Sam Allardyce's side got their worst result of the season in the 1-0 defeat to Reading on 29 December, and it was a loss which left them only six points clear of the drop zone. However, a tight 2-1 win at the Boleyn Ground over Norwich has extended that gap back up to eight - and it would be a major surprise if the east Londoners were involved at the bottom in May now.
12 NORWICH CITY (P21 W6 D7 L8 F24 A34 Pts 25)
Festive form: LLLL
FA Cup: 3R v Peterborough United (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 1-4 v Aston Villa (H) in fifth round
Top scorer: Grant Holt, Anthony Pilkington, Robert Snodgrass (4)
Sack race: Chris Hughton (since June 2012) 50/1
Original prediction: 20th
Norwich City have endured an awful Christmas season with four straight defeats to West Brom, Chelsea, Man City and West Ham United. Immediately before those four games, though, the Canaries were in excellent form, going unbeaten for 10 matches, a run which included 1-0 home wins over Arsenal and Man United, and which keeps them out of any relegation worries for now.
13 FULHAM (P21 W6 D6 L9 F32 A37 Pts 24)
Festive form: LDLW
FA Cup: 3R v Blackpool (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 0-1 v Sheffield Wednesday (A) in second round
Top scorer: Dimitar Berbatov (7)
Sack race: Martin Jol (since June 2011) 20/1
Original prediction: 16th
Fulham gained a vital New Year's Day victory over West Brom to pull themselves six points clear of the relegation places. The Cottagers have spent the last two months of their campaign going backwards with only one win in their previous 12 league matches sending them down to 14th. However, Dimitar Berbatov remains a class act for the west Londoners and he opened the scoring against the Baggies to give Martin Jol's men this morale-boosting result.
14 SUNDERLAND (P21 W5 D7 L9 F21 A29 Pts 22)
Festive form: WWLL
FA Cup: 3R v Bolton Wanderers (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 0-1 v Middlesbrough (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Steven Fletcher (8)
Sack race: Martin O'Neill (since December 2011) 20/1
Original prediction: 11th
Sunderland's slight improvement came crashing to a halt in a 3-0 defeat at Anfield but the situation on Wearside certainly looks less desperate than it once did. The Black Cats slipped into the bottom three following their defeat to Chelsea on 8 December but climbed straight out with a 3-0 win over Reading. Though a 3-1 defeat at Old Trafford followed, successive 1-0 wins at Christmas over Southampton and, remarkably for a third season in a row, Manchester City lifted Martin O'Neill's men to a heady 13th position. The New Year period went less well with defeats to Tottenham (1-2) and Liverpool but Sunderland will simply be satisfied to be looking down on their north east rivals Newcastle for the first time in over a year.
15 NEWCASTLE UNITED (P21 W5 D5 L11 F27 A39 Pts 20)
Festive form: WLLL
FA Cup: 3R v Brighton & Hove Albion (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Manchester United (A) in third round
Europe: Europa League last 32 v Metalist Kharkiv (H) on 14 February/(A) on 21 February
Top scorer: Demba Ba (13)
Sack race: Alan Pardew (since December 2010) 9/1
Original prediction: 6th
Newcastle United's wretched campaign continued with three defeats out of four over the Christmas and New Year period. In fairness to the Magpies, the fixtures computer could have been kinder and, following a heart-breaking defeat in a seven-goal thriller against Man United (3-4), and despite scoring three away again, the Toon conceded seven against a much fresher Arsenal (3-7). At least, Newcastle started the festive games with a tense 1-0 win over bottom-placed QPR at home - but defeat at Everton on 2 January leaves Alan Pardew's men just two points above the drop zone after nine defeats in their last 11 league games. Newcastle will also have to stay up without any help from their top-scorer Demba Ba who has signed for Chelsea for £7m after the London club triggered his well-publicised release clause. And, although France right-back Mathieu Debuchy has come in for £5m, the Magpies' creaky rearguard is going to need a centre-back as well.
16 ASTON VILLA (P21 W4 D7 L10 F17 A41 Pts 19)
Festive form: LLLD
FA Cup: 3R v Ipswich Town (H) on 5 January
League Cup: SF v Bradford City (A) on 8 January/(H) on 22 January
Top scorer: Christian Benteke (6)
Sack race: Paul Lambert (since June 2012) 2/1fav
Original prediction: 10th
After 10 minutes of the action on New Year's Day, Aston Villa's festive season record was: played four, lost four, scored none, conceded 16 - and it only seemed as if it was going to get worse as Swansea City poured forward. This awful sequence for Paul Lambert's young side began with a 8-0 defeat away against Chelsea before Tottenham (4-0) and even Wigan (3-0) added to the Villains' embarrassment at home. And so, it is with some credit that Villa emerged from a gruelling start to the Swansea game with a point. Indeed, it would have been more if it weren't for Danny Graham's last-minute equaliser for the Welsh - but, having come through an awful Christmas period, the Second City club will be satisfied with a league position outside of the bottom three.
17 SOUTHAMPTON (P20 W4 D6 L10 F27 A38 Pts 18)
Festive form: LDDD
FA Cup: 3R v Chelsea (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 0-3 v Leeds United (A) in fourth round
Top scorer: Rickie Lambert (8)
Sack race: Nigel Adkins (since September 2010) 14/1
Original prediction: 9th
Southampton still are not winning too many games but Nigel Adkins' team has at least tightened up considerably from their early-season benevolence. While the Saints failed to win any of their four Christmas and New Year fixtures, they did come away with credible draws away at Fulham and Stoke, and at home to Arsenal. Against Stoke and Arsenal, though, the Saints held the lead and it remains to be seen just how vital all of Southampton's dropped points will be at the end of the season. The draw at the Britannia was particularly galling, given Stoke's equaliser came in the 90th minute from a thunderbolt strike by Cameron Jerome which could easily win goal of the season.
18 WIGAN ATHLETIC (P21 W5 D3 L13 F22 A39 Pts 18)
Festive form: LLWL
FA Cup: 3R v Bournemouth (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 2-4 on penalties (after 0-0 draw) v Bradford City (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Arouna Kone (6)
Sack race: Roberto Martinez (since June 2009) 40/1
Original prediction: 15th
Wigan Athletic will never learn - or perhaps the Latics simply do not have the resources to avoid being a team constantly batting relegation. Anyway, it did look like it was going to be better than that this season for Roberto Martinez's men after successive wins at the start of November. But a total of just four points from 27 after that dropped the Lancashire club into the bottom three for the first time in 2012/13. And, though a 3-0 victory over Aston Villa on 29 December provided some welcome relief, an entirely predictable 4-0 loss to Man United on New Year's Day has once again left Wigan with work to do.
19 READING (P21 W2 D7 L12 F23 A40 Pts 13)
Festive form: LDWL
FA Cup: 3R v Crawley Town (A) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 5-7 aet v Arsenal (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Adam Le Fondre (5)
Sack race: Brian McDermott (since December 2009) 3/1
Original prediction: 19th
Reading remain in deep trouble - five points from safety, having dropped more points (20) from winning positions than any other Premier League team this season. New Year's Day was the latest example of this generosity as Tottenham overturned an early 1-0 lead to win 3-1. Otherwise, the Royals actually did reasonably well over the Christmas period, losing narrowly 1-0 to Man City before keeping two clean sheets and picking up four points from home games against West Ham and Swansea. However, Brian McDermott's men remain well off the pace as those four points followed a terrible sequence of seven successive league defeats, and relegation beckons.
20 QUEENS PARK RANGERS (P21 W2 D7 L12 F17 A36 Pts 13)
Festive form: LLLW
FA Cup: 3R v West Bromwich Albion (H) on 5 January
League Cup: lost 2-3 v Reading (H) in third round
Top scorer: Adel Taarabt (4)
Sack race: Harry Redknapp (since November 2012) 28/1
Original prediction: 13th
Queens Park Rangers may have been able to start the New Year on a high with a frankly unbelievable 1-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge - but it speaks volumes how poor the Rs' season has been so far that it was not enough to take the west Londoners off the foot of the table. Indeed, Rangers had endured a pretty miserable Christmas and New Year period until then, losing consecutive games at Newcastle (0-1) and at home against West Brom (1-2) and Liverpool, where they found themselves 3-0 down in half an hour. Only the Reds easing off spared Harry Redknapp from further embarrassment and, while the wily campaigner fully believes he can keep QPR up, it still looks a long shot to me.
Note:
All clubs have now played 21 league games except Arsenal-West Ham United
whose match on 26 December was postponed due to industrial action on the London Underground, and Chelsea-Southampton whose match on 15 December was postponed due to the Club World Cup.
Top scorers' goals relate to Premier League only. Sack race odds are provided by Skybet, correct on Friday 4 January but subject to change. Original predictions feature in this preview post.
