Showing posts with label bernie sanders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bernie sanders. Show all posts

Thursday, 10 November 2016

US election 2016: Triumphant Trump beats complacent Clinton


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Hillary CLINTON
Democrat
60,029,365
(47.7%)
232California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) + DC (3)
Donald TRUMP
Republican
59,769,452 (47.5%)
306Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Maine (1), Michigan (16), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (18), Oklahoma (7), Pennsylvania (20), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3)

MAVERICK Donald Trump pulled off possibly the most sensational win in American electoral history yesterday after defeating Hillary Clinton to become the 45th President of the United States.

With Arizona still counting, and Michigan and New Hampshire classed as virtual dead heats, the final result in the Electoral College is yet to be confirmed. 

However, if the current positions in each of those states holds, Mr Trump will eventually prevail 306 to 232, as above.

By contrast, in the popular vote, it is highly likely that Mrs Clinton will be confirmed as the winner, making it the second presidential election out of the last five in which the winner of the most votes has failed to gain the keys to the White House.

For the record, George W Bush beat Al Gore in 2000 despite losing the popular vote - something which my preview blog mentioned. 

In fact, the Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections, missing out only in 2004 when incumbent Mr Bush defeated John Kerry. 

But all of these facts will be of little comfort to Mrs Clinton. The hopes of the 69-year-old becoming the first ever female US President now appear to be dashed forever

The election night itself made its customarily quiet start as states such as Maryland and Massachusetts for the Democrats, and Tennessee and Texas for the Republicans, were allocated to their respective columns.

Just after 3am GMT, with no swing states yet called, Mr Trump held a 140-109 lead in the Electoral College. But then came the first blow for Mrs Clinton. 

Ohio - a state which has backed the winner of every presidential election since 1960 - lived up to its bellwether reputation by being called for Mr Trump.

And, startlingly, the 70-year-old billionaire took the Buckeye state by nearly a nine-percent margin, a 12-point turnaround from four years ago when Barack Obama won it for the Democrats.

Better news followed for Mrs Clinton as she secured the electoral votes from Colorado and then, narrowly, from Virginia. However, early reports from Michigan and Wisconsin hinted at yet more trouble for her in the Mid West.

At 4am GMT, the Pacific coast states declared and the massive haul of 55 electoral votes from California put Mrs Clinton into the lead in the Electoral College.

But, as soon as the cheers over the California result were dying down at Clinton HQ in New York, North Carolina was declared for Mr Trump. 

Thereafter, it became one-way traffic in terms of the most important results. Mr Trump took the perennial swing state of Florida just after 4.30am GMT, and followed it up by securing neighbouring Georgia just before 5am GMT. 

However, the last knockout blows for Mrs Clinton were still yet to come.

Shortly after 7am GMT, Mr Trump would became the first ever Republican candidate to win an electoral vote in the north eastern state of Maine, which splits its vote by district. More crucially still, he then became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since 1988.

Within minutes of that, it became clear Mr Trump had, in fact, repeated this feat in Wisconsin - and those 10 electoral votes were enough to put the Republican over the magical mark of 270 officially. 


Notably, Mrs Clinton had not visited the Badger state even once during the general election campaign. 

True, Wisconsin had been so reliably Democrat for the last 28 years that it might have seemed a waste of energy and resources - and, yes, this point relies a lot on hindsight. 

Nevertheless, such complacency, looking back, now seems astonishing. After all, the Mid West has threatened to drift away from the Democrats for years. 

In the 2012 election, Mr Obama arguably only secured the support of Michigan after he promised a bailout to the world famous but now much suffering automobile industry in Detroit.

Unfortunately, for such areas, the decline in manufacturing has gone on for so long now that there is a sense of permanency about it. 

Small-town America - including many places in the rust belt - can be a hopeless, desolate place for their mainly white working class communities.

And it should therefore come as no surprise that this is where the roars against the establishment and the political elite have been at their loudest.


Some commentators have called it a whitelash but such analysis is far too simplistic and the complaints of these people - who just happen to be white, working class - are as much about economics as race.

Indeed, analysis of the white vote will not on its own explain the election result as a whole. 

For a start, the Clinton campaign also struggled to enthuse enough black or Hispanic voters with turnout for the Democrats well down on the last two elections.

Certainly, though, it was in the Mid West where this election was lost by Mrs Clinton - in Michigan and Wisconsin especially, where she had also earlier lost both Democratic primaries to another political outsider Bernie Sanders

Of course, it is impossible to know at this stage if Mr Sanders would instead have beaten Mr Trump. Surely, though, a Sanders candidacy would have given those angry anti-establishment voters in the Mid West something more to think about.

For a start, he may have paid those people some attention and listened to their concerns so that they did not simply lash out and desperately cross their ballot against Mr Trump's name in the vague hope that something somehow might change.

After all, even many Republican voters have admitted Mr Trump was, at best, a rather dysfunctional candidate for them.

The New Yorker, nonetheless, was still good enough to win - and, with Republicans having also retained control of both the House and the Senate, it would be fair to say the world became an even more uncertain place this week.

It could be a long four years with Mr Trump as President - and, following an election which changed the shape of the political map in America, it might well be eight.

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

US election 2016: Clinton on a knife-edge

THE MOST bitter and divisive US Presidential election in decades mercifully draws to a close overnight as America decides between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Democrat candidate Mrs Clinton still holds the lead in almost all of the national polls - but, as election day has got closer, so undoubtedly have those polls.

Moreover, the popular vote is not even the decisive factor. It is possible, as George W Bush proved against Al Gore in 2000, to lose in terms of the total number of votes and yet still win the election.

The reason behind this is the electoral college system in which a candidate requires 270 electoral college votes to win.

Based largely on the population of a state, demographics across America have resulted in the majority of states becoming either dependably blue for the Democrats or reliably red for the Republicans.

As such, it can be safely predicted that California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12), and the District of Columbia (3) will all fall into Mrs Clinton's column for a total of 204 electoral college votes.

Likewise, Mr Trump can expect to win Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3) for an overall tally of 164.
However, the map of swing states - where the turnout of a candidate's vote really counts - is far wider in 2016 than it was in 2012.

Also, four years ago, incumbent Barack Obama could count on holding the upper hand in nearly every single so-called 'purple' state

But, for Mrs Clinton this time around, that is simply not the case. 

Indeed, on the eve of the election proper, Florida (29), Nevada (6), and North Carolina (15) are complete toss-ups. 

Worse still, she trails in Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), and Ohio (18), all of which are thought to be up for grabs.

Fortunately for Mrs Clinton, she continues to have far more pathways to victory than Mr Trump.

Converting narrow leads in Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10) would be enough for Mrs Clinton to become the first ever female President of the United States without her needing any of those other swing states.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

And if Mrs Clinton managed to pull off a win in Arizona, Florida or North Carolina, Mr Trump would find it just about impossible to succeed.

On final analysis then, Mrs Clinton is still a clear favourite in this election. 

Nevertheless, victory - if it does indeed arrive - will have been nowhere near as comfortably achieved as expected.

This has been a bruising campaign for the 69-year-old former New York senator right from the primary season when she faced an unexpectedly tough challenge from Bernie Sanders.

Having eventually won that race, Mrs Clinton has since been dogged by accusations that she may have breached federal rules during her time as Secretary of State by using a private email account for official business.

For the record, Mrs Clinton was cleared in July after a systematic analysis by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

But astonishingly, 11 days before the election, the FBI announced that newly discovered emails had come to light and it was re-opening its investigation.

On Sunday, FBI director James Comey cleared Mrs Clinton again. Nevertheless, the resurfacing of the story chimed well among some wavering voters with Mr Trump's repeated assertion that his opponent is corrupt.

And, consequently, it has dashed any possibility of a Clinton landslide, something had started to look increasingly during the month of October.

Yes, just a month ago, all the heat was on Mr Trump as a recording from 2005 was released in which he used explicit language, and claimed he could kiss and grope women because he is "a star".

Mr Trump, who had been accused of sexism on several occasions, later apologised for the remarks, claiming they did not reflect who he was.

But the damage was done and many Republicans withdrew their support including 2008 nominee, Arizona senator John McCain, and former Secretary of State in the Bush administration, Condoleezza Rice.

Somehow, it got worse for Mr Trump. In the days following the release of the tape, a steady stream of women came forward to suggest the recording did, in fact, reflect who he was.

Fighting fire with fire, Mr Trump held an impromptu press conference with women who have accused Mrs Clinton's husband, 42nd President Bill Clinton, of sexual assault.

It was the day, the BBC declared, that this election had gone down the drain - but, arguably, Mr Trump has never risen above the cesspit.

At the very launch of his bid for the presidency, he demonised Mexican immigrants as rapists and has constantly threatened to build a wall on the border between Mexico and the United States.

Meanwhile, his response to the San Bernardino terrorist attack in California was to "ban all Muslims" from entering the country. 

It is perhaps then no wonder that Mrs Clinton - despite her own imperfect campaign - still finds herself ahead.

Even then, though, an overnight victory - unless it is totally overwhelming - may not be the end of it. 

Mr Trump already on record saying he will not necessarily accept a result which does not go in his favour. Additionally, he has repeatedly claimed the election is rigged against him

Of course, the 70-year-old has already made so much investment, both financially and emotionally, to his tawdry campaign - and he has already suffered so much damage to his reputation. 

As such, being additionally labelled as a bad loser would, at this stage, barely make him flinch.

Ultimately then, this election may not, in fact, finish overnight after all. The best tip right now would be to brace yourself.
 
Coverage on BBC One begins at 11.15pm with the equivalent results programme on ITV starting slightly earlier at 10.40pm. Both broadcasts run through until breakfast news begins at 6am.

CLOSING TIMES
All times are GMT (number of electoral votes)

00:00 Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia (60)
00:30 North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia (38)
01:00 Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, DC 01:30 Arkansas (178)
02:00 Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming (156)
03:00 Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah (21)
04:00 California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington (82)
06:00 Alaska (3)

Wednesday, 2 March 2016

Trump towers over his rivals on Super Tuesday

SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS Primaries and Caucuses
ALABAMA01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 77.8%, Sanders 19.2%
REPUBLICAN Trump 43.4%, Cruz 21.1%, Rubio 18.7%
ARKANSAS01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 66.3%, Sanders 29.7%
REPUBLICAN Trump 32.7%, Cruz 30.5%, Rubio 25.0%
GEORGIA01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 71.3%, Sanders 28.2%
REPUBLICAN Trump 38.8%, Rubio 24.4%, Cruz 23.6%
MASSACHUSETTS01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 50.1%, Sanders 48.7%
REPUBLICAN Trump 49.3%, Kasich 18.0%, Rubio 17.8%
MINNESOTA01-MarDEMOCRAT Sanders 61.7%, Clinton 38.3%
REPUBLICAN Rubio 36.5%, Cruz 29.0%, Trump 21.3%
OKLAHOMA01-MarDEMOCRAT Sanders 51.9%, Clinton 41.5%
REPUBLICAN Cruz 34.4%, Trump 28.3%, Rubio 26.0%
TENNESSEE01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 66.1%, Sanders 32.4%
REPUBLICAN Trump 38.9%, Cruz 24.7%, Rubio 21.2%
TEXAS01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 65.2%, Sanders 33.2%
REPUBLICAN Cruz 43.8%, Trump 26.7%, Rubio 17.7%
VERMONT01-MarDEMOCRAT Sanders 86.1%, Clinton 13.6%
REPUBLICAN Trump 32.7%, Kasich 30.4%, Rubio 19.3%
VIRGINIA01-MarDEMOCRAT Clinton 64.3%, Sanders 35.2%
REPUBLICAN Trump 34.7%, Rubio 31.9%, Cruz 16.9%
ALASKA01-MarREPUBLICAN Cruz 36.4%, Trump 33.5%, Rubio 15.1%
COLORADO01-MarDEMOCRAT Sanders 58.9%, Clinton 40.4%

FRONT-RUNNERS Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton boosted their respective chances of winning their party nominations for the general election after both took seven states on Super Tuesday.

Mr Trump won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia in the Republican race - while Mrs Clinton dominated her only rival Bernie Sanders in the South.

Indeed, Mrs Clinton took Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia as well as Massachusetts narrowly.

And, while the defeats in the southern states were far heavier, they were expected - and so it is the Massachusetts result which will give Mr Sanders most cause for concern.

Massachusetts was one of a quintet of states - along with Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont - which Mr Sanders admitted he really needed to win.

But the fact that he did not fully succeed in this aim suggests his race is nearly run - with bookmakers having now made Mrs Clinton as short as 1/33 to be the Democrat nominee.

By contrast, for now, the equivalent Republican contest is still alive - but Mr Trump is undoubtedly in control.

The entrepreneur's nearest rival Ted Cruz met - or even perhaps even slightly exceeded - expectations in winning Alaska and Oklahoma as well as his home state, the delegate-heavy Texas.

Meanwhile, Marco Rubio finally got on the board with his first primary win in Minnesota.

However, Mr Trump was at least relatively competitive pretty much everywhere, recording his lowest percentage of the night in Minnesota.

There, it was still 21.3% - and his much higher figures elsewhere have helped him pick up delegate nominations even in the states which he did not win.

And this is important - for, ultimately, it is the number of delegates which counts, not the number of states won (although both, of course, go hand-in-hand).

Currently, Mr Trump leads the way with 316 nominations ahead of Texas senator Mr Cruz by 90.

Mr Rubio trails in third place on just 106 delegates but the one-term Florida senator has so far declined Mr Cruz's request for him to end his campaign.

Mr Cruz understandably wants to have a go at Mr Trump all on his own - but Mr Rubio will not pull out as he fancies his chances in the upcoming winner-takes-all contests in Ohio and on his home turf of Florida.

Moreover, Mr Rubio considers Mr Cruz's strong pull of the evangelical vote to be too narrow to win in the general election - or even against Mr Trump.

In fairness, he is probably right in this regard - Mr Cruz should have done far better already. Nonetheless, Mr Trump hardly looks to be quaking in his boots at the thought of a resurgence from Mr Rubio.

Already, indeed, the Queens-born businessman last night instead turned his sabre-rattling towards his anticipated rival for the presidency, Mrs Clinton.

Earlier, Mrs Clinton had made her own Super Tuesday speech in which she said: "I’m going to keep saying it. I believe what we need in America today is more love and kindness, because you know what? It works."

She added that she wanted to "make America whole again" - but this was derided as a meaningless statement by Mr Trump who added: "She [Clinton]'s been there for so long.

"If she hasn't straightened it out by now, she's not going to straighten it out in the next four years. It's just going to become worse and worse."

At least, this time, he launched a legitimate attack on his main political opponent - rather than earlier in the week when he was quoting Benito Mussolini on Twitter.

Or, then, more seriously, appearing reluctant to disavow support from David Duke, the leader of the notorious white supremacist group, the Ku Klux Klan.

Nevertheless, it seems Mr Trump will have plenty of other opportunities yet for mis-steps, both deliberate and planned.

A Republican contest which was previously unclear has now shifted inextricably in his favour and Trump v Clinton on 8 November beckons.

Put the date in the diary folks and then cross your fingers that a badly-coiffured lunatic does not end up in the White House.

It moved one step closer after his and Hillary Clinton's Super Tuesday.

EARLIER RESULTS
IOWA01-FebDEMOCRAT Clinton 49.8%, Sanders 49.6%
REPUBLICAN Cruz 27.6%, Trump 24.3%, Rubio 23.1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE09-FebDEMOCRAT Sanders 60.9%, Clinton 37.9%
REPUBLICAN Trump 35.7%, Kasich 15.8%, Cruz 11.7%
NEVADA20-Feb
23-Feb
DEMOCRAT Clinton 52.6%, Sanders 47.3%
REPUBLICAN Trump 45.9%, Rubio 23.9%, Cruz 21.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA20-Feb
27-Feb
DEMOCRAT Clinton 73.5%, Sanders 26.0%
REPUBLICAN Trump 32.5%, Rubio 22.5%, Cruz 22.3%

NY TIMES DELEGATE COUNT
Democrat (2382 to win)
577 Hillary Clinton
386 Bernie Sanders

Republican (1237 to win)
316 Donald Trump
226 Ted Cruz
106 Marco Rubio
25 John Kasich
8 Ben Carson

Thursday, 11 February 2016

US election 2016: Year of the outsiders


OUTSIDERS Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders continued their shake-up of American politics after both gained big victories in their respective New Hampshire primary elections.

In the Republican race, Mr Trump took 35.7% of the vote to finish well ahead of his rivals Ohio governor John Kasich (15.8%), Texas senator Ted Cruz (11.7%), and former Florida governor Jeb Bush (11.0%).

Current Florida senator Marco Rubio, of whom so much had been previously expected, performed terribly and his eventual fifth place on 10.6% has indeed left the continuation of his campaign in doubt.

It had all looked so different after the season-opening Iowa caucuses a week ago. There, Mr Rubio had finished third - and, although he did not win, his 23% had put him just one percent behind Mr Trump and just over four points behind winner Mr Cruz.

In other words, Mr Rubio was well in the race. Under the slightest of scrutiny, however, he has totally crumbled.

Perhaps the most seminal moment of the whole campaign so far came in a debate on Saturday in which the fresh-faced Mr Rubio was challenged by another candidate Chris Christie.

Rather than defend himself, though, Mr Rubio instead attacked incumbent President Barack Obama - and then, bizarrely went onto repeat the same line, almost verbatim, twice more in quick succession.

This robotic response was seized upon by Mr Christie as further evidence that Mr Rubio, as a first-term senator, was not yet for the ready for the responsibility that comes with occupying the White House.

And that perception now looks very difficult for him to shake off.

Instead, the focus has now turned back to Mr Trump, a loose cannon - to say the least - having infamously earlier declared he would ban all Muslims from entering the United States.

Rather then, the focus in the Republican camp is on finding a candidate who can reliably stand up to Mr Trump's relentless anti-establishment message.

Could that perhaps be Jeb Bush, son of the 41st President George HW Bush and brother of the 43rd President George W Bush?

Frankly, that seems unlikely. Mr Bush has out-spent all of his contenders by a huge margin - and yet still only came fourth in New Hampshire having been absolutely nowhere in Iowa.

Certainly, it can be said that there is no great clamour for another chapter to be added to the Bush dynasty.

Of course, the same could partly be said about the Clinton dynasty. Hillary Clinton, wife of 42nd President Bill, is standing for the top job for a second time, having been beaten by Mr Obama in 2008.

In New Hampshire, however, she suffered one hell of a bloody nose as Vermont senator Mr Sanders scored a huge win in the Democrat primary.

Self-styled - and self-funded - socialist candidate Mr Sanders took 60.9% of the vote to dwarf Mrs Clinton's 37.9% in what, unlike the Republican contest, is a simple two-horse race.

In fairness, Mrs Clinton herself has admitted she is not connecting with some voters, particularly the young - but the problem for her is that the problem, for many, is herself.

That is actually not an altogether unfair verdict from the electorate when taking into consideration a few key issues.

For a start, Mrs Clinton supported the Defense of Marriage Act and yet now pretends to be an ally of the gay community. Additionally, she voted in favour of the Patriot Act and the Iraq War, both of which were opposed by Mr Sanders.

At the same time, though, Mr Sanders must concede that New Hampshire - well-known for its independent streak - cannot be viewed as typical of the USA as a whole.

Neighbouring his home patch in Vermont, it is also possibly the state with the most favourable demographics for him of all 50 of the states.

So, basically, it could be said that, if Mr Sanders had failed to win in New Hampshire, Mrs Clinton would already have this contest in the bag.

Instead, her 74-year-old opponent most likely now has enough momentum to make it at least to Super Tuesday on 1 March when 11 primary and caucus elections will be held on the Democrat side. On the same day, meanwhile, 14 different states will select their Republican candidate.

By the start of next month then, the race to the White House should start to become a little clearer.

But, for now - in this strangest of electoral cycles - we are largely none the wiser.

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016
Primaries and Caucuses

IOWA01-FebDEMOCRAT Clinton 49.8%, Sanders 49.6%
REPUBLICAN Cruz 27.6%, Trump 24.3%, Rubio 23.1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE09-FebDEMOCRAT Sanders 60.9%, Clinton 37.9%
REPUBLICAN Trump 35.7%, Kasich 15.8%, Cruz 11.7%
Next: Nevada caucus for Democrats (20 Feb), South Carolina primary for Republicans (20 Feb), Nevada caucus for Republicans (23 Feb), South Carolina primary for Democrats (27 Feb), Super Tuesday (1 Mar)
 

NY TIMES DELEGATE COUNT
Does not include super-delegates
Democrat (2382 to win)
36 Bernie Sanders
32 Hillary Clinton

Republican (1237 to win)
17 Donald Trump
11 Ted Cruz
10 Marco Rubio
5 John Kasich
4 Jeb Bush
3 Ben Carson