Tuesday, 5 November 2013

The Season 2013/14: Arsenal stride five points clear


1 ARSENAL (P10 W8 D1 L1 F22 A9 Pts 25)
First 10 League games: LWWWWWDWWW
League Cup: lost 0-2 v Chelsea (H) in fourth round
Europe: Currently top of Champions League Group F [W2 D0 L1 F5 A3 Pts 6]
Top scorer: Aaron Ramsey (10)
Manager: Arsene Wenger (since October 1996)
Original prediction: 4th
Since a shock opening day defeat to Aston Villa, Arsenal have been the one stand-out side in the division so far, winning eight of their subsequent league games and drawing the other. The Villa loss prompted open revolt in the stands at the Emirates and finally convinced manager Arsene Wenger to dip his hand into the transfer market on deadline day. And what a dip it has proved to be! Mesut Ozil may not have come cheap at £42m+ but the creative midfielder's assist stats over the last few years speak for themselves - and his arrival has brought the best out of Olivier Giroud and Aaron Ramsey. The latter added to his goals tally in the top-of-the-table clash with Liverpool on Saturday to send the Gunners five points clear. With progress also being made in a tricky Champions League group, all is suddenly calm in this part of North London.

2 CHELSEA (P10 W6 D2 L2 F16 A8 Pts 20)
First 10 League games: WWDLWDWWWL
League Cup: QF v Sunderland or Southampton (A) on 17 December
Europe: Currently top of Champions League Group E [W2 D0 L1 F8 A2 Pts 6]
Top scorer: Oscar (5)
Manager: Jose Mourinho (since June 2013)
Original prediction: Champions
Exemplary as ever at Stamford Bridge under Jose Mourinho, Chelsea's current away form in the Premier League leaves much to be desired with just one win out of five. Their latest defeat, at Newcastle United, prompted the twice-title winning boss to bemoan his starting line-up. "I made 11 mistakes," said the Portuguese in a not-so-subtle dig at his inheritance, despite his selection including stalwarts Ashley Cole, John Terry and Frank Lampard from his previous spell. Nevertheless, by currently leading the chasing pack - and having won at Arsenal last week in the League Cup, the Blues still look most likely to reel in their London rivals. They really will need to improve on the road first, though.

3 LIVERPOOL (P10 W6 D2 L2 F17 A10 Pts 20)
First 10 League games: WWWDLWWDWL
League Cup: lost 0-1 v Manchester United (A) in third round
Top scorer: Daniel Sturridge (10)
Manager: Brendan Rodgers (since June 2012)
Original prediction: 5th
In Luis Suarez and England youngster Daniel Sturridge, Liverpool probably have the strongest striking partnership in the Premier League this season, with 14 of the Reds' 17 league goals so far coming from the pair, a massive 82%. Indeed, all of Liverpool's wins this term have featured either Sturridge or Suarez scoring, and both found the net in the three wins over West Bromwich Albion, Sunderland and Crystal Palace. This genuine threat up front has ensured the Anfield club has avoided a repeat of the slow start in the last campaign as Brendan Rodgers sets his sights on a first top five finish in five seasons. But Liverpool's greatest strength is also their greatest weakness - they are likely to struggle if they lose either of their frontmen for whatever reason or if they are nullified as well as in the 2-0 defeat to Arsenal.

4 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (P10 W6 D2 L2 F9 A5 Pts 20)
First 10 League games: WWLWWDLWWD
League Cup: QF v West Ham United (H) on 18 December
Europe: Currently top of Europa League Group K [W3 D0 L0 F7 A0 Pts 9]
Top scorer: Jermain Defoe (6)
Manager: Andre Villas-Boas (since July 2012)
Original prediction: 6th
Aided by four wins in their first five, Tottenham have made their best ever start to a Premier League season but, with just nine league goals scored, it has hardly been 'Glory, Glory' stuff at White Hart Lane. Instead, Andre Villas-Boas' men have become the masters of the narrow win with Roberto Soldado penalties beating Crystal Palace and Swansea City, and a last minute Paulinho goal getting the better of Cardiff City. Spurs, meanwhile, were on the other end of a 1-0 scoreline against Arsenal, though the real horror show so far came in a 3-0 home defeat to strikerless West Ham United. And so, while Tottenham may be in a coveted top four placing as it stands, considering both Manchester clubs are behind them, they will need to play a lot better than this to keep it.

5 MANCHESTER CITY (P10 W6 D1 L3 F28 A11 Pts 19)
First 10 League games: WLWDWLWWLW
League Cup: QF v Leicester City (A) on 17 December
Europe: Currently second in Champions League Group D [W2 D0 L1 F6 A4 Pts 6]
Top scorer: Sergio Agüero (11)
Manager: Manuel Pellegrini (since June 2013)
Original prediction: Runners-up
Man City's opening 10 games have been bookended by two thumping home wins - 4-0 against Newcastle United on the first Monday of the season and 7-0 against hapless Norwich City on Saturday. Those wins perhaps told us more about the state of Man City's opponents on those occasions than themselves as, in between, the Manuel Pellegrini era has hardly been spectacular. Yes, the Blues still reign supreme at Eastlands with a 100% record there, and a 4-1 thumping of city rivals United to boot. But they simply must improve on their away record of just four points from 15 if they are to get back into the title race properly. At least, with two wins out of three, the Champions League campaign is going much better this year.

6 SOUTHAMPTON (P10 W5 D4 L1 F11 A4 Pts 19)
First 10 League games: WDLDWWWDWD
League Cup: 4R v Sunderland (A) on 6 November. Winners play Chelsea (H) in QF on 17 December.
Top scorer: Jay Rodriguez (4)
Manager: Mauricio Pochettino (since January 2013)
Original prediction: 13th
A complete revelation, Southampton have lost just once in 12 league and cup games so far, a total contrast to this time last year when they had taken just four points out of 30 to sit bottom. Then-manager Nigel Adkins slowly guided the Saints away from trouble but, under Argentine Mauricio Pochettino, the south coast club look in even better shape. A solid defence, marshalled brilliantly by Polish custodian Artur Boric, has conceded the lowest amount of goals in the whole division with just four going in against them, including a total freak effort by Stoke City keeper Asmir Begovic. The defence is complemented by the attack talents of Rickie Lambert and Jay Rodriguez - and, having even won at Anfield this season, Southampton's lofty placing should not be denigrated.

7 EVERTON (P10 W5 D4 L1 F14 A10 Pts 19)
First 10 League games: DDDWWWLWWD
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Fulham (A) in third round
Top scorer: Romelu Lukaku (5)
Manager: Roberto Martinez (since July 2013)
Original prediction: 10th
Everton may have been effectively forced to change their manager this summer but, to the relief of their fans, things look hardly any different at Goodison Park after 10 games. The reliable Toffees look as solid as ever with five clean sheets already and, in September, the draws turned into wins with three apiece in their opening six matches, including a 1-0 home win over Chelsea. Unbeaten at home in the league in 2013 and with still just one league defeat altogether this term, Everton's hard-to-beat side will surely place comfortably in the top half again this season, a result which would represent a decent start to the Roberto Martinez era on Merseyside. 

8 MANCHESTER UNITED (P10 W5 D2 L3 F17 A13 Pts 17)
First 10 League games: WDLWLLWDWW
League Cup: QF v Stoke City (A) on 18 December
Europe: Currently top of Champions League Group A [W2 D1 L0 F6 A3 Pts 7]
Top scorer: Robin van Persie (9)
Manager: David Moyes (since July 2013)
Original prediction: 3rd
Slowly but surely, David Moyes is settling in at Manchester United. However, the transition from the Sir Alex Ferguson era has proved even tougher than imagined, with several sides turning up to Old Trafford and not lying down in the usual fashion. Southampton went away with a point and West Brom with all three, both deserved results for the visitors. On the road, Moyes has found it no easier with an early Anfield loss and a 4-1 defeat at Man City which was maybe even more emphatic than the famous 6-1 mauling from two seasons ago. Recent form has been better with five wins out of the last six league and cup games ensuring progression in the League Cup and almost certainly in Europe too. But, with so many points dropped already, it is indeed the cups which are looking like Moyes's best chance of winning some silverware this season.

9 NEWCASTLE UNITED (P10 W4 D2 L4 F14 A16 Pts 14)
First 10 League games: LDWWLLWDLW
League Cup: lost 0-2 aet v Manchester City (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Loic Remy (6)
Manager: Alan Pardew (since December 2010)
Original prediction: 12th
Having gone from the sublime to the ridiculous, often within the same game, no club is more fully deserving of their mid-table place than Newcastle United this season. Beginning with a 4-0 defeat at Man City, the Magpies got on the points board with an unconvincing 0-0 draw against West Ham before beating Fulham late on. Impressive away wins at Aston Villa and Cardiff City came either side of a home loss to Hull, where Alan Pardew's men twice blew a lead and another 3-2 reverse at Everton when three behind by half-time. A battling draw against Liverpool repaired some of the damage from a 6-0 defeat to the same opponents in April. But Newcastle were unable to avenge their Tyne-Wear derby loss from the same month, losing successive matches to Sunderland for the first time since 1967. It then emerged that owner Mike Ashley had banned the local newspapers from reporting on the club - though the team were obviously not too distracted, producing a stunning second half performance in a 2-0 win over Chelsea. Loanee Loic Remy sealed the win in the last minute with his sixth goal of the season - and keeping this particular Frenchman looks like being the key to the Magpies' prospects this season.

10 HULL CITY (P10 W4 D2 L4 F8 A10 Pts 14)
First 10 League games: LWLDWWDLLW
League Cup: lost 7-8 penalties (after 2-2 draw) v Tottenham Hotspur (A) in fourth round
Top scorer: Robert Brady (4)
Manager: Steve Bruce (since June 2012)
Original prediction: 19th
Hull City are confounding the doubters and flying high in the top 10 under Steve Bruce, unbeaten at home and having come from behind to win 3-2 away at Newcastle. The Tigers - which should have surely just remained a nickname and not part of their official name - enjoyed a similarly heady start to their previous Premier League spell under Phil Brown before a second half collapse and a last day survival which merely delayed the inevitable for 12 months. With Bruce, though, Hull's solidity suggests this success will be much more than just a flash in the pan - although more goals would be nice. Averaging less than one per game, Hull are the lowest scorers in the top half.

11 WEST BROMWICH ALBION (P10 W3 D4 L3 F10 A10 Pts 13)
First 10 League games: LDLDWWDDLW
League Cup: lost 3-4 penalties (after 1-1 draw) v Arsenal (H) in third round
Top scorer: Saido Berahino (6)
Manager: Steve Clarke (since June 2012)
Original prediction: 17th
A slow start of two home defeats and two away draws was well and truly banished in the space of a week in September when a routine 3-0 victory over Sunderland was followed up by a fully deserved 2-1 triumph at Old Trafford, the Baggies' first win there since 1978. England Under-21 striker Saido Berahino was the hero, adding to Morgan Amalfitano's delicate chip, to score one of six goals so far this season. Indeed, thanks to Berahino, West Brom have made much lighter work of losing out on Romelu Lukaku than expected, being one of just two teams also to prevent Arsenal from winning. And, while Steve Clarke's men may have come back down to earth with a bump in a 4-1 defeat against Liverpool at Anfield, the subsequent 2-0 win over Crystal Palace suggests the Midlanders will stay out the thick of the trouble. 

12 CARDIFF CITY (P10 W3 D3 L4 F9 A13 Pts 12)
First 10 League games: LWDDLWLLDW
League Cup: lost 2-3 v West Ham United (A) in third round
Top scorer: Fraizer Campbell, Steven Caulker, Jordon Mutch, Peter Odemwingie (2)
Manager: Malky Mackay (since June 2011)
Original prediction: 15th
What a win, what a brilliant derby win! The red-shirted Bluebirds came out on top in the first ever Welsh derby in the Premier League to put behind them an uncertain start and even go above their great rivals from along the M4. Summer signing Steven Caulker headed a Craig Bellamy corner into the net just past the hour mark to give Malky Mackay's men a vital third Premier League win following a stunning 3-2 comeback against Manchester City on the second weekend and a 2-1 away win at Fulham. So far, so good then for Cardiff despite a lack of goals generally and a bizarre interference by unconventional owner Vincent Tan. The Malaysian's decision to replace experienced head of recruitment Iain Moody with 23-year-old Kazakh Alisher Apsalyamov has inevitably prompted questions about Mackay's own position, though the young Scottish manager can do little more than continue to get results like Sunday. 

13 SWANSEA CITY (P10 W3 D2 L5 F12 A12 Pts 11)
First 10 League games: LLWDWLLWDL
League Cup: lost 1-3 v Birmingham City (A) in third round
Europe: Currently top of Europa League Group A [W2 D1 L0 F5 A1 Pts 7]
Top scorer: Wilfriend Bony, Michu (4)
Manager: Michael Laudrup (since June 2012)
Original prediction: 7th
From victory at Wembley in February to a rather underwhelming start to the 2013/14 campaign by Michael Laudrup's Swansea. Suffering defeats in exactly half of their league games, including - painfully - to Cardiff, the Swans have stumbled to a lower midtable placing on the strength of wins against the rudderless bottom two and a solid victory at West Brom. That victory at the Hawthorns is perhaps one of only two occasions, alongside the 2-2 draw against Liverpool, that Swansea have performed to their optimum this season, although there has been little variation from their well-heeled possession football. Laudrup and Swansea will undoubtedly stick to their principles and it should still eventually pay dividends once progress in Europe is guaranteed, which will perhaps even be by the end of the week.

14 ASTON VILLA (P10 W3 D2 L5 F9 A12 Pts 10)
First 10 League games: WLLLWWDLLD
League Cup: lost 0-4 v Tottenham Hotspur (H) in third round
Top scorer: Christian Benteke (5)
Manager: Paul Lambert (since June 2012)
Original prediction: 8th
The curse of Villa Park continues. Having lost nine times at home last season and eight the season before, the Holte End has already bore witness to a further four defeats in Aston Villa's opening five league games, not to mention a 4-0 thumping in the League Cup by Tottenham Hotspur. Yes, three of the league losses were to Liverpool, Spurs again and Everton but Villa failed to score in any of them - and, with two further blanks on the road in 0-0 draws, it is clear Paul Lambert's men have struggled to account for Christian Benteke's injury-hit campaign. At least two stunning victories - 3-1 on the opening against Arsenal and 3-2 against Manchester City - are keeping the Villains' heads above water for now but, until the home form sorts itself out, this looks like being another tough campaign in the Second City.

15 WEST HAM UNITED (P10 W2 D4 L4 F8 A8 Pts 10)
First 10 League games: WDLDLLWLDD
League Cup: QF v Tottenham Hotspur (A) on 18 December
Top scorer: Ravel Morrison, Ricardo Vaz Te (4)
Manager: Sam Allardyce (since June 2011)
Original prediction: 11th
With concerns at home and away, this has not been the ideal start for West Ham United. At the Boleyn Ground, Sam Allardyce's men only just ended a rotten run of three consecutive defeats by drawing 0-0 with Aston Villa on Saturday. Meanwhile, on the road, Hammers fans have seen just four goals altogether - although they can at least be consoled by the fact that three of them have been in their favour. Indeed, all of them came in a stunning 3-0 win at Tottenham Hotspur - but, other than that surprise win and a League Cup run which has thrown the London rivals together again in the quarter finals, there has been little to get excited about in East End.

16 FULHAM (P10 W3 D1 L6 F10 A15 Pts 10)
First 10 League games: WLLDLLWWLL
League Cup: lost 3-4 v Leicester City (A) in fourth round
Top scorers: Darren Bent, Hugo Rodallega (3)
Manager: Martin Jol (since June 2011)
Original prediction: 16th
Martin Jol is favourite for the sack after Fulham's lacklustre end to last season has carried on in this campaign. Having effectively reached the finish line, the Cottagers lost six of their last eight matches at the end of 2012/13 but, worryingly for the Londoners, that form has continued with six defeats in the first 10 and safety nowhere yet in sight. New owner Shahid Khan has given Jol the dreaded vote of confidence but the Dutchman's stay of execution may short-lived. After all, Fulham have only beaten the few sides currently below them so far. Jol needs a big result soon and next up is Liverpool at Anfield.

17 STOKE CITY (P10 W2 D3 L5 F7 A11 Pts 9)
First 10 League games: LWWDLLLDLD
League Cup: QF v Manchester United (H) on 18 December
Top scorer: Kenwyne Jones (4)
Manager: Mark Hughes (since May 2013)
Original prediction: 18th
Mark Hughes has produced an incredible early achievement at Stoke City this season by making the Potters even duller than Tony Pulis's side. Excepting a stunning game at Old Trafford, which Stoke still lost 3-2, the team's other nine Premier League games have featured just 13 goals altogether. Only five have come from Stoke themselves, meaning goalkeeper Asmir Begovic is actually a joint top league scorer for his extraordinary effort straight from the kick off against Southampton. Indeed, with only two victories to call on - one of which came against Crystal Palace - this already looks like being the toughest of the club's five Premier League campaigns. For, although a lack of goals at the Britannia is not a new thing - only once have Stoke scored more than a goal a game on average in a Premier League season - if anything, the problem is worse now than ever.

18 NORWICH CITY (P10 W2 D2 L6 F6 A20 Pts 8)
First 10 League games: DLWLLWLLDL
League Cup: lost 0-4 v Manchester United (A) in fourth round
Top scorers: Johan Elmander, Gary Hooper, Jonathan Howson, Anthony Pilkington, Steven Whittaker (2)
Manager: Chris Hughton (since June 2012)
Original prediction: 9th
The early optimism, which was provided by an entertaining 2-2 draw against Everton and a hard-fought 1-0 over Southampton in Norwich's first two home games, has been well and truly extinguished. Since the end of August, the Canaries have taken just four points from 21 with a brutal fixture list featuring Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United (in the League Cup) and Manchester City resulting in four defeats and 18 goals conceded. Seven of those came against Man City as one of the league's best attacks benefited from a totally hapless defensive performance. And, although former Newcastle boss Chris Hughton has hung onto his job so far, the East Anglians' bottom three presence means there is now huge pressure on him to deliver from a kindlier set of fixtures between now and Christmas.  

19 SUNDERLAND (P10 W1 D1 L8 F7 A22 Pts 4)
First 10 League games: LDLLLLLLWL
League Cup: 4R v Southampton (H) on 6 November. Winners play Chelsea (H) in QF on 17 December.
Top scorer: Emanuele Giaccherini (3)
Manager: Gus Poyet (since October 2013) replaced Paulo di Canio
Original prediction: 14th
Calamity, glorious relief and yet more calamity sums up Sunderland's season so far quite nicely. The Di Canio era lasted perhaps even less time than most people expected, sacked after taking just one point from 15. New man Gus Poyet got a horrifying first look at his squad in a 4-0 away defeat at Swansea City but, like his Italian predecessor, then got a precious derby win against Newcastle United. Joy was short-lived on Wearside, however, as the Black Cats reverted to type against Hull City, losing for the eighth time this season. In typically farcical style, ill-disciplined Sunderland scored an own goal and finished the match with just nine men following the dismissals of Lee Cattermole and Andrea Dossena for a pair of dreadful challenges. Poyet's squad remain deep in trouble, five points adrift of safety. 

20 CRYSTAL PALACE (P10 W1 D0 L9 F6 A21 Pts 3)
First 10 League games: LLWLLLLLLL
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Bristol City (A) in second round
Top scorer: Dwight Gayle (2)
Manager: vacant - previously Ian Holloway
Original prediction: 20th
Crystal Palace already look set for maybe the most predictable relegation since Derby County's ill-fated 2007-08 campaign, having lost nine of their 10 league matches so far, winning the other against fellow strugglers Sunderland. Manager Ian Holloway has departed, citing a lack of squad unity - and, with him gone, so surely has any chance of the Eagles avoiding a record fifth top-flight relegation since the formation of the Premier League in 1992. In fact, at this current rate, Palace would be touch-and-go to overtake Derby's record points low. The south Londoners need another win - and it needs to come pretty sharp-ish.

Note: Top scorers goals relate to all senior competitions. Original predictions feature in my preview post here.

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