| EASTLEIGH | LD hold | ||
| Mike Thornton Lib Dems | 13,342 | 32.1% | (-14.5%) |
| Diane James UKIP | 11,571 | 26.6% | (+24.2%) |
| Maria Hutchings Conservatives | 10,559 | 25.4% | (-14%) |
| John O'Farrell Labour | 4,088 | 9.8% | (+0.2%) |
| Others | 2,056 | 5.0% |
THE LIBERAL Democrats had rare cause for celebration overnight after the party surprisingly held its seat in the Eastleigh by-election.
Mike Thornton is the new MP for the Hampshire constituency - succeeding fellow Lib Dem, former energy minister Chris Huhne - following a caustic campaign between the two coalition parties.
The by-election was called after Huhne resigned from the House of Commons earlier this month in disgrace, having pleaded guilty to perverting the course of justice over claims his ex-wife took speeding points for him back in 2003.
Huhne had previously insisted on his innocence but, now hoisted by his own petard, he can expect to be sentenced at the conclusion of the trial of his former spouse Vicky Pryce.
It is likely, based upon previous MPs who have fallen foul of that particular law, that he will face a period in prison - and, indeed, this by-election could not have come at a worse time for the Lib Dems.
Still polling nationally at only around 10%, the party has been further rocked by the allegations against its former chief executive and election strategist, Lord Rennard.
The peer stands accused of "inappropriate behaviour" towards women - but the real fall-out has come from the confusion over just how much party leader Nick Clegg has known about the matter.
As usual, Mr Clegg has hardly helped himself, having taken somewhat contradictory stances over the past week.
First, the Deputy Prime Minister claimed he knew nothing about the allegations. But now, Mr Clegg has admitted that he had, after all, been aware of "indirect and non-specific concerns".
BBC political editor Nick Robinson explains that "this shift was made necessary because it is now clear that allegations were made to the party's chief whip and equalities spokesperson five years ago".
However, it still does not really feel as if we are any closer to the truth.
Despite all this, though, the Tories singularly failed to take advantage in what can only be considered as a worrying outcome for Prime Minister David Cameron.
Based on the Lib Dem majority in 2010, Eastleigh was target seat number 55 for the Conservatives in 2015 - and, even before the result was confirmed, former leadership contender David Davis warned of a possible "crisis".
Mr Davis said: "I think if we came third it would be a crisis, and if it's a close second with UKIP on our tail it will also be uncomfortable."
Well, the Tories did come third following an inauspicious campaign by their candidate Maria Hutchings.
Meanwhile, Labour never expected much from a seat which is way off its published list of targets.
Even the selection as a candidate of broadcaster and writer John O'Farrell seems to have made little impression.
Indeed, it could have made things worse after Mr O'Farrell's old but indiscriminate comments about Margaret Thatcher and her lucky escape from Brighton hotel bombing came to light.
Of course, Ed Miliband's party will have to start winning some seats in the south and east, having been just about wiped out altogether in 2010. But, even if Labour is returned to power in 2015, Eastleigh is not likely to be one of them.
Consequently, this Lib Dem hold is much more a danger to the Conservatives than to Labour, especially now that the boundaries bill is dead in the water.
Labour would be foolish not to make some analysis of the result, though. The great expectancy, given their woeful polling scores, is that the Lib Dems will be obliterated from the political map in 2015.
But that is a dangerous assumption to make and it is one which does not take into account any 'incumbency' factor.
The decisive element in 2015 is indeed likely to be just how many of their 57 seats the Lib Dems will lose - and, contrary to the national polls, it might not be as many as previously feared.
It is little wonder, then, that - while favourite - a Labour majority at the next general election remains odds-against for now. After all, there is still a long way to go yet.
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