There's power in the Union

SCOTLAND will decide on whether to become an independent country following the signing of an historic agreement by Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish Nationalist leader Alec Salmond.

Mr Salmond will hope the referendum - to be held in autumn 2014 - represents a successful end to a long road, given the original purpose of the party's formation in 1934.

However, it is also the biggest gamble of the SNP leader's political life as, so associated is he with the campaign for Scottish independence, that a failure to win the vote could only ever be taken personally.

The good news for Mr Salmond is that he remains personally popular. Latest polling gives him an approval rating of plus 10, which compares favourably with the three leaders in Westminster, Mr Cameron (minus 24), Labour leader Ed Miliband (minus 14), and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg (minus 58).

Meanwhile, the Nationalists continue to hold a lead in overall polling for Scotland, despite their status as a party of government north of the border following their stunning election win 17 months ago.

The bad news for Mr Salmond is that his popularity, and that of his party, does not extend to a desire to see Scotland make a break as a fully independent country.

Latest polling shows that, among definite voters, only 30% would opt for independence against 58% who would preserve the Union, a lead of 28 points.

And, in worse news again for Mr Salmond, there is only one way which that trend is going, with smaller leads - 11% in January and 20% in June - showing in favour of the Union previously.

So, why this apparent contradiction then? Well, perhaps the most likely reason is that the Scottish people are not quite as different to the rest of Britain as they would like to think.

Historically, any political or constitutional changes on this sceptred isle have generally only come to fruition after being eked out over years and years.

Maybe, it is the case that the Scots are just as small-'c' conservative as the rest of us.

Certainly, Scotland could not be accused of being big-'C' Conservative, with still just a solitary Tory MP represented in the House of Commons.

Indeed, getting away from the murkiness of Westminster politics altogether is easily one of Mr Salmond's strongest arguments - and it is not difficult to see why that is the case.

This week, an aide of George Osborne told a ticket inspector that the chancellor "could not possibly" sit in standard class, despite apparently only holding a ticket of that type and refusing to pay for an upgrade.

Then, late yesterday evening - just as the Westminster village was packing up to go back to its second homes for the weekend - the Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell finally resigned.

Mr Mitchell had been under pressure for weeks from Conservative backbenchers and the Tory-supporting Daily Telegraph after allegedly calling a Downing Street policeman a "pleb".

And, although Mr Mitchell denied once again using that word in his resignation letter, he also wrote: "Over the last two days it has become clear to me that I will not be able to fulfil my duties."

Mr Mitchell never actually did confirm exactly what he did say.

He did, in fairness, provide a background hubbub of gossip to another staid party conference season, the only other highlights of which were Mr Clegg's lamentable apology being wonderfully remixed with Auto-tune for charity, and Mr Cameron announcing he had joined Twitter.

No, easily the most fascinating party conference - an oxymoron, perhaps - is the one which is still ongoing in the Fair City of Perth on Tayside, featuring the Scottish Nationalists.

Today, the pro-independence campaign announced it will distribute one million leaflets claiming that every Scottish family will be £1,000 better off under independence.

Meanwhile, in his keynote speech, Mr Salmond has claimed that that an independent Scotland will be a more prosperous and more just society. 

However, big questions remain about some of the fundamentals of life in an independent Scotland if the vote were to be carried. 

Would Scotland remain a part of NATO despite the SNP's stance against using nuclear deterrents? Which currency would Scotland use, if not the pound? Certainly, joining the Euro does not look like a particularly good idea at the moment. 

Thirdly, amid the contradictory arguments put forward, would Scotland really be better off financially on its own? 

It is a lack of a coherent response to these questions which is likely to see the five million voters in Scotland decide this referendum in an emotive way instead. 

Perhaps that explains, from the Nationalists' perspective, why the date of vote is on the 700th anniversary of the Scottish victory by Robert the Bruce over the English at the Battle of Bannockburn. 

Indeed, on a separate note, if Scottish independence could guarantee the national football team qualifying for the World Cup, then it would more than likely pass. 

However, as Craig Levein's team stumbles instead to the bottom of its qualifying group, Scotland has had to look to the talent of its individual sportsmen and women more and more. 

At the top of that list is record six-time Olympic gold medallist Sir Chris Hoy and Andy Murray, who also won Olympic gold as well as his first Grand Slam title this summer. 

Both of them are recognisably Scottish, and yet both of them draped themselves in the Union Flag and broke down in floods of tears as they spoke of their pride in winning gold for Team GB. 

In many ways, this vote for Scottish independence has come at a bad time for the Scottish Nationalists. 

After all, the party never actually expected to win an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament due to the proportional aspect of the electoral system. 

But, given the Scots' desire to see a centre-left alternative to the Westminster coalition, the outright SNP majority can almost be said to have happened by accident. 

Consequently, Mr Salmond's hand was forced by popular demand - and, while he no doubt feels that he can still yet win this vote, it looks as if there is power in the Union yet.