Hope? Or hopeless?... The USA decides on Tuesday 6 November
PRESIDENT Barack Obama's plea for a second term at the White House was immediately undermined by poor jobs figures as the American economy continues to struggle.
Mr Obama made his keynote speech at the close of the Democratic National Convention on Thursday, but the following day's headlines were dominated by yet more economic gloom.
For, while the unemployment rate across the United States actually fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, this was attributed to people giving up looking for work as only 96,000 jobs had been created in the last month.
Thus, the Obama presidency was summed up in less than 24 hours - some great oration followed up by too little substance.
Four years ago, of course, Mr Obama stood on a platform of change and that most over-used four-letter word in all politics - hope.
Millions of people lined up behind the simple "Yes we can" slogan of the president-elect, and the famous poster - designed by artist Frank Shepard Fairey - even has its own Wikipedia entry.
But, this week in an editorial in the Guardian, Mr Obama was compared to Icarus, the winged character from Greek mythology who flew too near the sun and crashed to earth.
Indeed, even some of his own supporters admit Mr Obama over-promised and under-delivered in his first four years.
At home, there has been criticism that the president has concentrated too much on his landmark healthcare bill when the lack of growth of tanking economy should have been the first-term priority.
Mr Obama was further undermined by the fact that when the bill was finally introduced, it was a much watered-down version of the original proposal due to his failure to convince Democrats in swing states to vote with him.
In terms of foreign policy, Mr Obama has been criticised by Noam Chomsky for being worse even than George W. Bush and Tony Blair.
That conclusion has presumably been reached by Mr Chomsky because Mr Obama has significantly increased the number of soldiers in the unwinnable Afghanistan war, and also increased the number of drone attacks on supposed ally Pakistan. Moreover, the promise to shut down Guantanamo Bay in Cuba has also not been kept.
So, with the general election on 6 November just over eight weeks away, what is the alternative?
Well, the week before the Democratic jamboree in Charlotte, North Carolina, the Republican party officially endorsed Mitt Romney as their presidential candidate at their National Convention in Tampa, Florida.
The choice of the venue for the Republicans was quite deliberate. For, the way that the maths (math?) is working out, Mr Romney simply must carry the Sunshine State.
Already, incumbent Mr Obama looks certain to win the electoral college votes from California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and the District of Columbia - a total of 185.
Against that, Mr Romney can be confident of winning in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming - for a total of 158.
The four States which are leaning towards (toward?) Mr Obama are Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania - a further 52 votes in the electoral college.
Meanwhile, Mr Romney also seems likely to carry Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, for an additional total of 48.
With the winning marker set at 270, Mr Obama thus already eyes 237 electoral college votes from states at least likely to vote in his favour.
By contrast, Mr Romney trails with 206 electoral college points altogether. Dangerously for the GOP, then, Mr Obama's total leaves him just 33 short of the winning post and a second four-year term.
Take Florida's 29 votes and Mr Obama is just about there - only four short - with the remaining points possible from a single state, New Hampshire, or from Wisconsin, which has sided with the Democrats every time since 1988.
That perhaps explains why Mr Obama remains an odds-on favourite with the bookmakers, despite the projected national vote currently separating the candidates by just a single percentage point.
After all, Mr Romney too has had trouble convincing his own side that he is the man to lead the United States through these difficult times.
Doubts over Mr Romney's record as Governor in liberal Massachusetts made him a hard-sell during the primary campaign to the states in the Deep South.
Even at the National Convention itself, there were signs of internal dissent with supporters of defeated candidate Ron Paul actively disrupting the proceedings.
Since then, there have also been a couple of other uncomfortable moments in Florida for Mr Romney on social issues.
First, the White House challenger was forced on the back-foot after GOP Senate candidate Todd Akin made a completely boneheaded comment that "legitimate rape" rarely resulted in pregnancy.
For the record, Mr Romney denounced Mr Akin's quite unbelievable stance but the latter remains a candidate in the Missouri Senate race.
Later, in the toss-up state of New Hampshire, Mr Romney seemed completely oblivious that a Vietnam war veteran quizzing him on gay marriage was himself a gay man.
Indeed, if anything, so far the election campaign has simply seemed to expose the nuttiest elements of the Republican party to an even wider audience.
And so, while Mr Obama may have been a disappointment for the first four years, he still offers more hope than a Romney presidency... even though the situation still currently seems pretty hopeless.
US ELECTION 2012 PREDICTOR
(270 TO WIN)
| BARACK OBAMA | 237 | v | 206 | MITT ROMNEY |
| Strong Democrat (185) | Leaning Democrat (52) | Toss-up (95) | Leaning Republican (48) | Strong Republican (158) |
| California CA (55) | Maine district ME (1) | Colorado CO (9) | Arizona AZ (11) | Alabama AL (9) |
| Connecticut CT (7) | Michigan MI (16) | Florida FL (29) | Indiana IN (11) | Alaska AK (3) |
| Delaware DE (3) | Minnesota (10) | Iowa IA (6) | Missouri MO (10) | Arkansas AR (6) |
| Hawaii HI (4) | New Mexico (5) | Nevada NV (6) | Nebraska district NE (1) | Georgia GA (16) |
| Illinois IL (20) | Pennsylvania (20) | New Hampshire NH (4) | North Carolina NC (15) | Idaho ID (4) |
| Maine ME (2+1) | Ohio OH (18) | Kansas KS (6) | ||
| Maryland MD (10) | Virginia VA (13) | Kentucky KY (8) | ||
| Massachusettes MA (11) | Wisconsin WI (10) | Louisiana LA (8) | ||
| New Jersey NJ (14) | Montana MT (3) | |||
| New York NY (29) | Nebraska NE (2+2) | |||
| Oregon OR (7) | North Dakota ND (3) | |||
| Rhode Island RI (4) | Oklahoma OK (7) | |||
| Vermont VT (3) | South Carolina SC (9) | |||
| Washington WA (12) | South Dakota SD (3) | |||
| Dist. of Columbia DC (3) | Tennessee TN (11) | |||
| Texas TX (38) | ||||
| Utah UT (6) | ||||
| West Virginia WV (5) | ||||
| Wyoming WY (3) |
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