Monday, 23 April 2012

France ready to put its trust in Hollande


FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FULL RESULT

PartyVotesPercentage
Francois HollandePS10,273,58228.63% - progress to 2nd round on 6 May
Nicolas SarkozyUMP9,753,84427.18% - progress to 2nd round on 6 May




Marine Le PenFN6,421,77317.90%
Jean-Luc MelenchonFDG3,985,29811.11%
Francois BayrouMoDem3,275,3499.13%
Eva JolyEELV828,4512.31%
Nicolas Dupont-AignanDLR644,0861.79%
Philippe PoutouNPA411,1781.15%
Nathalie ArthaudLO202,5620.56%
Jacques CheminadeSP89,5720.25%
Turnout 36,585,858 (79.47%)


FRANCOIS HOLLANDE moved a step closer to the French presidency after Nicolas Sarkozy became the first incumbent in the Fifth Republic to lose in the first round of voting.

Mr Sarkozy scored 27.18% to fall narrowly short of his socialist rival Mr Hollande, who polled more than 10 million votes in a high turnout of almost 80%.

Meanwhile, rather worryingly for France, Marine Le Pen of the Front Nationale enjoyed her party's best ever result in terms of votes with over 6.4 million people favouring the far-right candidate.

Thankfully, the levels of support for Messieurs Sarkozy and Hollande meant that a repeat of the disastrous first round in 2002 was avoided.

That was when the political Left in France was so hopelessly divided that Marine's father, Jean-Marie, stunned Europe by making it into the run-off against Jacques Chirac.

A decade on and the left wing is much more united.

In fact, Jean-Luc Melenchon - the defeated hard-left candidate - has urged his supporters to switch to Mr Hollande in the second round on 6 May.

Happily for Mr Hollande, polls suggest that he can indeed be confident of receiving strong backing from the vast majority of Mr Melenchon's first round voters.

And that is certainly good news for him as, added altogether, the amount of people choosing left-wing candidates came to 44%.

Consequently, this would leave Mr Hollande needing to gain just another six percent, most of which will come from the people who opted for centrist Francois Bayrou.

By contrast, Mr Sarkozy is in need of a miracle if he is to avoid becoming the first French president since Valery Giscard d'Estaing in 1981 to fail to be re-elected.

Of course, it could have been much worse for this deeply unpopular president and his first round position vis-a-vis Mr Hollande actually makes it look like a close contest.

There is no way, though, that Mr Sarkozy can unite the political Right in the same way as the Left is currently unified. In fact, his name was roundly booed when Ms Le Pen mentioned it in her speech in a jubilant rally at her headquarters in Nanterre, just outside Paris.

Mr Sarkozy is generally seen as a traitor by FN supporters despite him directly engaging with far-right voters during the campaign by highlighting France's increased expulsion of immigrants

Frankly, this has been the measure of Mr Sarkozy - it has been desperate stuff, at times.

He even reached a point where he tried to score some cheap points and win some cheap votes with a jibe against the British economy.

But, whereas Mr Sarkozy's austerity programme is not a million miles away from the ideas of David Cameron, Mr Hollande seems to offer a genuine alternative to the UK's coalition government.

For, Mr Hollande has ambitious plans to invest in teachers and other aspects of state infrastructure while imposing a 75% tax on earnings above 1m euros.

The BBC's Robert Peston has his doubts over whether the level of overseas borrowing by France will allow him to do this, and he much expects the status quo to remain.

Certainly, it seems the FN are also hoping that nothing much changes. For, if France continues to struggle in a whirlpool of sovereign debt, then Mr Hollande will probably end up as discredited as Mr Sarkozy currently is.

Already, the FN is looking at making inroads against Mr Sarkozy's UMP party in the general election in June, thus building further on the momentum which it has gained in recent weeks. 

Still, it seems odd to me that a country which was occupied by Nazi forces between 1940 and 1944 is in any way attracted by this political extreme.

Perhaps, though, it is simply just the result of a more even-handed political system than in Britain.

Here, extremist parties on both flanks remain on the margins of political discourse whereas, in France, they are given almost as much exposure as the main contenders.

Incidentally, in the British press, Daily Mail columnist Richard Waghorne unequivocally gave Ms Le Pen his backing, proclaiming: "Despite her flaws, the only responsible vote in France... is one for Marine Le Pen."

But, while Waghorne's idiotic ramblings will sound pretty shocking to most British ears, it is not the first time that the Mail has been a cheerleader for the far-right.

"Hurrah for the Blackshirts" was the headline when the paper came out in support of Oswald Mosley's British Union of Fascists in 1934.

Thankfully, the French press reported this election in a slightly more level-headed manner.

Even the populist tabloid Le Figaro - certainly no fan of Mr Hollande - admitted rather begrudgingly that he now certainly holds the advantage.

However, top marks for inventiveness must go to the left-leaning newspaper Liberation which came up with a punchy six-word headline: "Hollande en tĂȘte - Le Pen trouble-fĂȘte".

The rhyme translates as "Hollande leads but Le Pen proves a spoilsport" - which just about sums up this election so far.

Back over to you, Messeurs Sarkozy et Hollande. 


FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: DEPARTMENT-BY-DEPARTMENT
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP Union pour un Mouvement Populaire)
01 Ain
04 Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
05 Hautes-Alpes
10 Aube
13 Bouches-du-Rhone
2A Corse-de-Sud
2B Haute-Corse
21 Cote-d'Or
25 Doubs
26 Drome
27 Eure
28 Eure-et-Loir
37 Indre-et-Loire
39 Jura
41 Loir-et-Cher
45 Loiret
48 Lozere
49 Maine-et-Loire
50 Manche
51 Marne
52 Haute-Marne
53 Mayenne
55 Meuse
57 Moselle
60 Oise
61 Orne
67 Bas-Rhin
68 Haut-Rhin
69 Rhone
73 Savoie
74 Haute-Savoie
78 Yvelines
83 Var
84 Vaucluse
85 Vendee
88 Vosges
89 Yonne
92 Hauts-de-Seine
976 Mayotte
977 Saint-Barthelemy
987 Polynesie francaise
988 Nouvelle Caledonie
FE Fraincais de l'etranger

Francois Hollande (PS Parti socialiste) Note: GAIN means the area was won by Sarkozy in the first round in 2007.
02 Aisne - GAIN
03 Allier - GAIN
06 Alpes-Maritimes
07 Ardeches - GAIN
08 Ardennes - GAIN
09 Ariege
11 Aude
12 Aveyron - GAIN
14 Calvados - GAIN
15 Cantal - GAIN
16 Charente
17 Charente-Maritime - GAIN
18 Cher - GAIN
19 Correze
22 Cotes-d'Armor
23 Creuse
24 Dordogne
29 Finistere
31 Haute-Garonne
32 Gers
33 Gironde
34 Herault - GAIN
35 Ille-et-Vilaine
36 Indre - GAIN
38 Isere - GAIN
40 Landes
42 Loire - GAIN
43 Haute-Loire - GAIN
44 Loire-Atlantique
46 Lot
47 Lot-et-Garonne - GAIN
54 Meurthe-et-Moselle - GAIN
56 Morbihan - GAIN
58 Nievre
59 Nord - GAIN
62 Pas-de-Calais - GAIN
63 Puy-de-Dom
64 Pyrenees-Atlantiques - GAIN
65 Hautes-Pyrenees
66 Pyrenees-Orientales - GAIN
70 Haute-Saone - GAIN
71 Saone-et-Loire - GAIN
72 Sarthe - GAIN
75 Paris - GAIN
76 Seine-Maritime - GAIN
77 Seine-et-Marne - GAIN
79 Deux-Sevres
80 Somme - GAIN
81 Tarn
82 Tarn-et-Garonne - GAIN
86 Vienne
87 Haute-Vienne
90 Territoire de Belfort - GAIN
91 Essonne - GAIN
93 Seine-Saint-Denis
94 Val-de-Marne - GAIN
95 Val-d'Oise - GAIN
971 Guadeloupe - GAIN
972 Martinique
973 Guyane - GAIN
974 La Reunion
975 Saint-Pierre et Miquelon
978 Saint-Martin - GAIN
986 Wallis et Futuna - GAIN

Marine Le Pen (FN Front national)
30 Gard - NF GAIN

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