ENGLAND begin their defence of the Ashes with the best chance of winning in Australia since they last succeeded in 1986-87 under Mike Gatting's captaincy.
That is the widely accepted view ahead of what promises to be a fascinating series of five Test matches, beginning tonight (Wed 24 Nov) at 11pm GMT at the Gabba in Brisbane.
England regained the Ashes in the summer of 2009 with a 2-1 home win, the same score by which they won in the truly unforgettable 2005 series.
The victory in 2005 still registers in the consciousness of English cricket to a huge extent, even more so than the 2009 win, despite the recency of the latter.
Significantly, England's win in 2005 was their first in the Ashes series for 18 years and sparked off a mass celebration after a series of amazingly tight matches against an Australian team which had dominated the whole sport for more than a decade.
But, while it might have been more magical at the time, the sparkle from 2005 proved to be transient.
By the time of the 2006-07 return series, vital members of the 2005 squad were absent with injuries and illness. Notably, these included captain Michael Vaughan, opening batsman Marcus Trescothick and lead swing bowler Simon Jones.
The England selectors then made a controversial call in making Andrew Flintoff captain in Vaughan's absence, favouring him over Andrew Strauss.
The first Test started badly from the first ball with the misfiring Steve Harmison bowling a huge wide after England had put the Australians in.
Australia made 602-9 declaring from their first innings then further humiliated England by batting and declaring again in their second innings on 202-1 after England's reply of 157 all out.
The Aussies still went on to win by 277 runs despite an improved second innings from England.
But, despite that battering, it was the second Test in Adelaide which ultimately left the touring England squad with deep, irrecoverable psychological scars.
Having won the toss again but batted first this time, Paul Collingwood's 206 allowed England to declare their first innings on 551-6.
By lunch on day three, England had restricted the Aussies' reply to 105-3 but a recovery led by captain Ricky Ponting's knock of 142 meant the hosts posted 513 all out shortly after tea on day four.
Hopes of a series-levelling victory for England had been dashed but, having reached stumps on day four at 59-1 in the second innings, the match was destined to be a draw.
However, the tide then turned dramatically in the Aussies' favour as Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne recommenced their torturing of the English batsmen.
At lunch on the final day of the Test, England had been reduced to 89-5. And, by tea, the tourists were all out for 127, a lead of just 167 runs.
Mike Hussey made an unbeaten 61 as the Australians chased aggresively and reached their target with three overs of the match left to go 2-0 up.
At that point, Australia may have only been two-thirds of the way to regaining the Ashes but they had already regained the huge psychological advantage which they had held for almost 20 years before 2005.
England were beaten heavily again in the third Test, by 206 runs despite only conceding a 29-run deficit on the first innings.
And, with the Ashes lost, the tourists then posted their most humiliating loss of the lot. Bowled out for 159 in their first innings and 161 in their second innings, England lost by an innings and 99 runs inside three days in the fourth Test.
England entered the final Test hoping to avoid suffering the first Aussie whitewash in the Ashes since 1920-21.
Their spirit broken after a series of previous losses, they failed, and Ponting's men excelled in another huge win by 10 wickets.
Australian retirees Warne, McGrath and Justin Langer could celebrate in style but the 5-0 thumping was the end of a chapter in the history of cricket, rather than the dawning of a new era.
While England have gone through the somewhat painful process of rebuilding their team, the aforementioned Australian legends have become more and more noticeable by their absence.
Recent months have seen Australia embark on an almost unheard of sequence of nine matches without a win in all competitions, and seven of those nine matches were lost.
The run began with Pakistan bowling out the Aussies for 88 in a Test defeat at Headingley in July before a 2-0 Test series loss in India.
India also won the only one of three One Day Internationals on the tour not to be abandoned before the Australians hosted Sri Lanka.
There, they fared no better, losing a one-off Twenty20 match before going 2-0 down in another three-match One Day International series.
Australia won the final One Day International against the Sri Lankans in convincing style to bring to an end their nightmare run and, admittedly, many of those matches were not Tests.
But the air of invincibility about Australia has definitely gone and Ponting's men now sit only fifth in the ICC Test Rankings.
That may be only one place behind England but the momentum of Strauss' team is in the opposite direction.
England have not lost a series in any type of cricket since their 2009 Ashes victory. They followed up that win a hard-fought 1-1 draw in South Africa and back-to-back wins over Bangladesh twice and Pakistan in Tests.
Meanwhile, in limited overs cricket, England tasted success in an ICC competition for the first time, beating Australia in the final of the latest World Twenty20 in the West Indies.
And they have also won their last five ODI series against South Africa away (2-1), Bangladesh away (3-0) and at home (2-1), and Australia and Pakistan at home (both 3-2).
More relevantly, England have started this tour Down Under well, in contrast to their stuttering 2006-07 campaign.
Already, England have notched up wins over Western Australia and Australia A, and they were dominant in a three-day draw against South Australia.
Ian Bell hit 192, Alastair Cook scored 60 and Paul Collingwood added 89 as England scored 523 in their first innings in the win over Australia A.
It was a welcome boost for the top- and middle-order batsmen, particularly Cook who was in need of runs, though it is fair to say that batting remains England's more fragile hand.
However, there is great depth and variety to a bowling attack which is likely to feature genuine match-winners in spinner Graeme Swann, experienced swing bowler James Anderson, and young seamers Stuart Broad and Steven Finn.
Back-up is provided by Chris Tremlett, Ajmal Shazhad, Tim Bresnan and Monty Panesar who all gained playing time by bowling out Australia A twice.
And so, the only stand-out concern for England going into the first Test is regarding their most enigmatic character, Kevin Pietersen.
Pietersen hit a welcome 58 runs in the first innings against Western Australia but his score of just five against Australia A has brought doubts over his form back to the surface.
He is also one of seven men in the England squad who were on the nightmare 2006-07 tour, although, with an average of 54.44, he could hardly be blamed for that failure.
For the record, the other six players are captain Strauss, Cook, Bell, Collingwood, Anderson and Panesar. It is vital that these players keep their heads during the pressure points in the series and keep a check on the notoriously hot-headed Broad.
Although this Australia team is clearly not very strong by historical standards, Ponting will not want to become the first ever Aussie captain to lose three Ashes series.
He will relish the chance to shift the pressure onto England by casting Australia as the underdogs even though that is not necessarily the case. Certainly, the bookmakers still offer shorter odds on another Aussie victory.
After all, winning in Australia is still hard - and not something to which England are accustomed.
England have just one Test win in their last six visits to the venues of the first two Tests in this series, Brisbane and Adelaide. Adelaide is also where England failed to secure an almost certain draw in 2006.
In Melbourne, the venue for the fourth Test, England have won one and lost four of the last five but it is in Perth on the west coast where England's record is even worse. Their last Test win at the Waca was in 1978 and they have lost the last five.
England's only recent win on Australian soil came in Sydney in 2003 - but that win, by 12 runs, was a dead rubber in terms of the series.
Indeed, remarkably, England have to go back to the Gatting-led series in 1986-87 for the last time they won an Ashes match away which was not a dead-rubber.
It is this weight of history, and the constant Aussie reminder of it from the big crowds around the boundary ropes, which makes me consider a 3-1 prediction like that made in the press by Flintoff perhaps a little too bullish.
At the same time, yet another 5-0 forecast from Glenn McGrath is surely total nonsense, given the respective strength of the two teams.
My prediction is for a 2-2 series draw, a result which would mean England would retain the Ashes for the first time since that Gatting-led win in 1986-87.
POST-WAR ENGLAND ASHES TOURS RECORD
(5 matches per series unless states)
By series: Australia 10 England 4 Draws 2
Test wins: Australia 40 England 20 Draws 23
1946-47 Australia 3-0 England
1950-51 Australia 4-1 England
1954-55 England 3-1 Australia
1958-59 Australia 4-0 England
1962-63 Australia 1-1 England (Australia retain the Ashes)
1965-66 Australia 1-1 England (Australia retain the Ashes)
1970-71 England 2-0 Australia (from six Tests)
1974-75 Australia 4-1 England (from six Tests)
1978-79 England 5-1 Australia (from six Tests)
1982-83 Australia 2-1 England
1986-87 England 2-1 Australia
1990-91 Australia 3-0 England
1994-95 Australia 3-1 England
1998-99 Australia 3-1 England
2002-03 Australia 4-1 England
2006-07 Australia 5-0 England
*Live coverage starts on Sky Sports 1 at 11pm*
*Day-by-day reports on TheIntrepidReporter.blogspot.com*
*Other resources: BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, Cricinfo
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