Thursday 29 July 2010

Silly season leaves Lib Dems with little to shout about but plenty to ponder

THE WESTMINSTER village began their, ahem, 'well-earned' six weeks rest this week from the hustle and bustle of politics.

But the summer recess has come amid growing concern from the Liberal Democrats about their coalition with the Conservatives.

Far from a enjoying the various silly season stories, Lib Dem MPs are worried about their position in government after their poll rating plummeted to the mid-teens.

A fall in the Lib Dems' popularity is actually quite commonplace after the hype of a general election has died away.

But they had hoped that, by being in power, they would keep their party in the public eye and negate this seemingly natural effect of support ebbing away after election day.

In fact, the opposite has happened. Rarely has a party's fortunes dwindled as dramatically as the Lib Dems in the last 10 weeks.

Nick Clegg's party received 22.9% of the vote on 6th May but YouGov showed support as low as 13% this week.

Moreover, on Monday, BBC Newsnight revealed that four in 10 people who said they voted for the Lib Dems in May would not have done in the knowledge that the party would enter a coalition with the Tories.

With MPs already in fear for their seats, Mr Clegg is struggling a little to keep his backbenchers on side. Six of the 57 Lib Dem MPs rebelled in vain against the Academies Bill.

Some Lib Dems have even gone somewhat off-message. The party's deputy leader Simon Hughes stated that the party would not have supported the Academies Bill if it were in opposition.

He added that the Lib Dems will need to make their voices heard to a much greater effect when Parliament resumes in the autumn.

Meanwhile, Tim Farron, MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale, was more forthright in his views, stating that David Cameron's Conservatives were a "toxic brand".

Another unnamed member was even more blunt in his assessment, adding: "You can't trust the fucking Tories."

Mr Clegg seemed to woo would-be rebels in his appearance in place of Mr Cameron at Prime Minister's Questions last week when he referred to the Iraq war as "illegal", despite the Tories having voted in favour of it.

But his subsequent admission tonight in a BBC documentary - that he agreed before the election with Conservative plans of immediate cuts - will have done him no favours.

Mr Clegg still campaigned against the cuts and perhaps, this clear hypocrisy explains why he was so sheepish when new chancellor George Obsorne announced his emergency budget in June.

More likely, Mr Clegg was embarrassed by the chancellor's rise in VAT to 20% from January 2011.

Mr Clegg had argued vigorously in the run-up to the election against any rise and even stood in front of a giant billboard which warned of the Tories' "VAT bombshell".

Nevertheless, the situation is not yet totally hopeless for Mr Clegg and the Lib Dems. Support for the Conservatives, currently just above 40%, is unlikely to remain so strong once the cuts start hurting society more widely.

Mr Cameron's party is probably still more associated with the cuts than the Lib Dems at this point. In time, the Lib Dems may even be credited with ensuring a rise in the personal tax allowance which means the poorest are not hit even harder.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems' other trump card - electoral reform - is still very much on the table with a referendum on the alternative vote system promised to take place next year.

And so, despite internal disenchantment, Mr Clegg can satisfy himself that the coalition is likely to struggle on at least until the vote on AV in May.

But, if the Lib Dems lose the referendum, while suffering heavy losses in the local elections, calls for a coalition collapse are bound to be deafening and possibly unavoidable.

Whatever the case may be, it is fair to say the brief dose of 'Cleggmania' is well and truly out of the British people's system.

Indeed, it even rests uncomfortably on the stomach of some Lib Dems.

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