Saturday 20 October 2012

There's power in the Union


SCOTLAND will decide on whether to become an independent country following the signing of an historic agreement by Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish Nationalist leader Alec Salmond.

Mr Salmond will hope the referendum - to be held in autumn 2014 - represents a successful end to a long road, given the original purpose of the party's formation in 1934.

However, it is also the biggest gamble of the SNP leader's political life as, so associated is he with the campaign for Scottish independence, that a failure to win the vote could only ever be taken personally.

The good news for Mr Salmond is that he remains personally popular. Latest polling gives him an approval rating of plus 10, which compares favourably with the three leaders in Westminster, Mr Cameron (minus 24), Labour leader Ed Miliband (minus 14), and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg (minus 58).

Meanwhile, the Nationalists continue to hold a lead in overall polling for Scotland, despite their status as a party of government north of the border following their stunning election win 17 months ago.

The bad news for Mr Salmond is that his popularity, and that of his party, does not extend to a desire to see Scotland make a break as a fully independent country.

Latest polling shows that, among definite voters, only 30% would opt for independence against 58% who would preserve the Union, a lead of 28 points.

And, in worse news again for Mr Salmond, there is only one way which that trend is going, with smaller leads - 11% in January and 20% in June - showing in favour of the Union previously.

So, why this apparent contradiction then? Well, perhaps the most likely reason is that the Scottish people are not quite as different to the rest of Britain as they would like to think.

Historically, any political or constitutional changes on this sceptred isle have generally only come to fruition after being eked out over years and years.

Maybe, it is the case that the Scots are just as small-'c' conservative as the rest of us.

Certainly, Scotland could not be accused of being big-'C' Conservative, with still just a solitary Tory MP represented in the House of Commons.

Indeed, getting away from the murkiness of Westminster politics altogether is easily one of Mr Salmond's strongest arguments - and it is not difficult to see why that is the case.

This week, an aide of George Osborne told a ticket inspector that the chancellor "could not possibly" sit in standard class, despite apparently only holding a ticket of that type and refusing to pay for an upgrade.

Then, late yesterday evening - just as the Westminster village was packing up to go back to its second homes for the weekend - the Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell finally resigned.

Mr Mitchell had been under pressure for weeks from Conservative backbenchers and the Tory-supporting Daily Telegraph after allegedly calling a Downing Street policeman a "pleb".

And, although Mr Mitchell denied once again using that word in his resignation letter, he also wrote: "Over the last two days it has become clear to me that I will not be able to fulfil my duties."

Mr Mitchell never actually did confirm exactly what he did say.

He did, in fairness, provide a background hubbub of gossip to another staid party conference season, the only other highlights of which were Mr Clegg's lamentable apology being wonderfully remixed with Auto-tune for charity, and Mr Cameron announcing he had joined Twitter.

No, easily the most fascinating party conference - an oxymoron, perhaps - is the one which is still ongoing in the Fair City of Perth on Tayside, featuring the Scottish Nationalists.

Today, the pro-independence campaign announced it will distribute one million leaflets claiming that every Scottish family will be £1,000 better off under independence.

Meanwhile, in his keynote speech, Mr Salmond has claimed that that an independent Scotland will be a more prosperous and more just society. 

However, big questions remain about some of the fundamentals of life in an independent Scotland if the vote were to be carried. 

Would Scotland remain a part of NATO despite the SNP's stance against using nuclear deterrents? Which currency would Scotland use, if not the pound? Certainly, joining the Euro does not look like a particularly good idea at the moment. 

Thirdly, amid the contradictory arguments put forward, would Scotland really be better off financially on its own? 

It is a lack of a coherent response to these questions which is likely to see the five million voters in Scotland decide this referendum in an emotive way instead. 

Perhaps that explains, from the Nationalists' perspective, why the date of vote is on the 700th anniversary of the Scottish victory by Robert the Bruce over the English at the Battle of Bannockburn. 

Indeed, on a separate note, if Scottish independence could guarantee the national football team qualifying for the World Cup, then it would more than likely pass. 

However, as Craig Levein's team stumbles instead to the bottom of its qualifying group, Scotland has had to look to the talent of its individual sportsmen and women more and more. 

At the top of that list is record six-time Olympic gold medallist Sir Chris Hoy and Andy Murray, who also won Olympic gold as well as his first Grand Slam title this summer. 

Both of them are recognisably Scottish, and yet both of them draped themselves in the Union Flag and broke down in floods of tears as they spoke of their pride in winning gold for Team GB. 

In many ways, this vote for Scottish independence has come at a bad time for the Scottish Nationalists. 

After all, the party never actually expected to win an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament due to the proportional aspect of the electoral system. 

But, given the Scots' desire to see a centre-left alternative to the Westminster coalition, the outright SNP majority can almost be said to have happened by accident. 

Consequently, Mr Salmond's hand was forced by popular demand - and, while he no doubt feels that he can still yet win this vote, it looks as if there is power in the Union yet.

Wednesday 10 October 2012

F1 2012: Vettel takes a huge cut into Alonso lead

DEFENDING champion Sebastian Vettel won the Japanese Grand Prix to cut Fernando Alonso's lead to just four points after the Spaniard spun out on the first corner.

German Vettel, who qualified on pole and led at Suzuka from start to finish, became the first driver this season to win back-to-back races to go favourite for a hat-trick of titles.

And the result from the Land of the Rising Sun means Alonso remains on 194 points with Vettel, on 190, closing in on him.

Kimi Räikkönen and Lewis Hamilton are further behind in third and fourth on 157 and 152 points respectively, with fifth-placed Mark Webber (134) and Jenson Button (131), in sixth, as the only other drivers to reach a century of points.

The key to this race was undoubtedly to avoid the first corner carnage, part of which was caused, entirely unsurprisingly, by Lotus driver Romain Grosjean.

Frenchman Grosjean had only recently been banned from racing in the Italian Grand Prix at Monza after causing a first-corner pile-up at Spa in Belgium.

And, although he stayed out of trouble in the night race in Singapore, this latest crash means he has now been involved in seven first-lap, and one second-lap, incidents this season.

This has prompted Red Bull driver Webber to call Grosjean "a nutcase", adding: "He needs to have a look at himself. It was completely his fault.

"How many mistakes can you make? How many times can you make the same error? It's quite embarrassing at this level for him."

But, while the Australian suffered in falling from his starting position of second to a ninth-place finish, it was Championship leader Alonso who was the biggest loser on Sunday.

The Spaniard's retirement was actually caused by Grosjean's Lotus team mate Räikkönen after the Finn punctured the left rear tyre of the Ferrari on rejoining the track having run slightly wide.

Meanwhile, a third incident saw Williams's Bruno Senna run into Nico Rosberg's Mercedes, with Rosberg retiring.

But, for the drivers who avoided all of this - including Vettel - a fruitful race began and, indeed, the first corner action was the most vital part of a largely unremarkable race.

That this was the case should still provide the BBC with no excuse for not opting for Suzuka as one of its 10 choices.

The Japanese circuit is a drivers' favourite, and a historic reminder of the glorious late 1980s era of F1 when it was the venue for three successive title deciders between Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost. In fact, in the run-up to the race, the BBC website even dedicated a blog to the majesty of Suzuka.

Moreover, while the BBC could not be sure that this would actually be the case when it made its picks, a failure to provide live coverage of this race prevented the pundits from having the opportunity to analyse some already significant moves for 2013.

For a start, seven-time champion Michael Schumacher has retired for good, having rarely threatened to reproduce anything like the dominance he showed in the early part of the last decade.

Perhaps Schumacher's final decision came after he ran into Toro Rosso's Jean-Eric Vergne in Singapore, his third successive crash at the track since he rejoined F1 in 2010. Obviously, the 43-year-old's eyesight is not quite what it used to be...

Even before then, the German had already been replaced as Briton Hamilton moved away from the McLaren team which he joined as a 13-year-old boy.

McLaren boss Martin Whitmarsh described Hamilton's move as "a mistake" for the driver but Hamilton seemed satisfied with his decision.

After all, while Mercedes may be some way behind McLaren on the grid still this season, who knows what 2013 holds, especially if Ross Brawn and Hamilton can create a dream partnership?

It is not even as if McLaren has been the ultimately dominant force over the last few years, though the team did act quickly to bring in Sauber's impressive Sergio Perez to race alongside Button next year.

Of course, the 2012 has yet even to be decided but, further down the grid, Felipe Massa and Kamui Kobayashi did their hopes of staying in F1 the world of good after stepping on the podium at Suzuka.

For Massa, his second place was a first post-race champagne dousing in 37 attempts since the 2010 Korean Grand Prix, and it may well still have come as too little, too late.

However, there seem to be no such doubts now about Kobayashi after the Sauber driver reached a half-century of points for the season in style in front of his adoring fans.

Kobayashi was the first Japanese driver since Aguri Suzuki in 1990 to reach the podium on home soil in the country's joint-best F1 result - and the supporters were not shy in showing their appreciation to the 26-year-old

But, while there was unbridled joy in Suzuka for Kobayashi, there was also recent sadness in the sport as a whole after the announcement of the death of Professor Sid Watkins on 13 September.

The neurosurgeon, who was a close friend of the late three-time champion Senna, served as the sport's medical delegate from 1978 until 2004, and he was instrumental in introducing many of the safety improvements during that period.

Consequently, this seems an appropriate place to finish this blog though, having criticised the BBC earlier, I should add that at least it got this tribute spot on. Professor Watkins was 84 years old.


CALENDAR
DateTV
Pole positionFastest lapWinner
18 MarchSkyAustralian Grand PrixHamiltonButtonButton
25 MarchSkyMalaysian Grand PrixHamiltonRaikkonenAlonso
15 AprilBBCChinese Grand PrixRosbergKobayashiRosberg
22 AprilSkyBahrain Grand PrixVettelVettelVettel
13 MayBBCSpanish Grand PrixMaldonadoGrosjeanMaldonado
27 MayBBCMonaco Grand PrixWebberPerezWebber
10 JuneSkyCanadian Grand PrixVettelVettelHamilton
24 JuneBBCEuropean Grand PrixVettelRosbergAlonso
8 JulyBBCBritish Grand PrixAlonsoRaikkonenWebber
22 JulySkyGerman Grand PrixAlonsoSchumacherAlonso
29 JulySkyHungarian Grand PrixHamiltonVettelHamilton
2 SeptemberBBCBelgian Grand PrixButtonSennaButton
9 SeptemberSkyItalian Grand PrixHamiltonRosbergHamilton
23 SeptemberBBCSingapore Grand PrixHamiltonHülkenberg Vettel
7 OctoberSkyJapanese Grand PrixVettelVettelVettel
14 OctoberBBCKorean Grand PrixWebberWebberVettel
28 OctoberSkyIndian Grand PrixVettelButtonVettel
4 NovemberBBCAbu Dhabi Grand PrixHamiltonVettelRaikkonen
18 NovemberSkyUnited States Grand PrixVettelVettelHamilton
25 NovemberBBCBrazilian Grand Prix



STANDINGS
Drivers' Championship
PDriverTeamPoints
01Sebastian Vettel (Ger)Red Bull-Renault255 (5 wins)
02Fernando Alonso (Spa)Ferrari245 (3 wins)
03Kimi Raikkonen (Fin)Lotus-Renault198 (1 win)
04Mark Webber (Aus)Red Bull-Renault167 (2 wins)
05Lewis Hamilton (Gbr)McLaren-Mercedes165 (3 wins)
06Jenson Button (Gbr)McLaren-Mercedes 153 (2 wins)
07Nico Rosberg (Ger)Mercedes GP93 (1 win)
08Romain Grosjean (Fra)Lotus-Renault90
09Felipe Massa (Brz)Ferrari89
10Sergio Perez (Mex)Sauber-Ferrari66
11Kamui Kobayashi (Jpn)Sauber-Ferrari50
12Nico Hulkenberg (Ger)Force India-Mercedes49
13Paul di Resta (Gbr)Force India-Mercedes44
14Michael Schumacher (Ger)Mercedes GP43
15Pastor Maldonado (Ven)Williams-Renault33 (1 win)
16Bruno Senna (Brz)Williams-Renault26
17Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra)Toro Rosso-Ferrari12
18Daniel Ricciardo (Aus)Toro Rosso-Ferrari9
19Timo Glock (Ger)Marussia-Cosworth0
20Heikki Kovalainen (Fin)Caterham-Renault0
21Vitaly Petrov (Rus)Caterham-Renault0
22Jerome d'Ambrosio (Bel)Lotus-Renault0
23Charles Pic (Fra)Marussia-Cosworth0
24Narain Karthikeyan (Ind)HRT-Cosworth0
25Pedro de la Rosa (Spa)HRT-Cosworth0

Constructors' Championship
PTeamPoints
01Red Bull-Renault407 (7 wins)
02Ferrari316 (3 wins)
03McLaren-Mercedes306 (5 wins)
04Lotus-Renault288 (1 win)
05Mercedes GP136 (1 win)
06Sauber-Ferrari116
07Force India-Mercedes93
08Williams-Renault59 (1 win)
09Toro Rosso-Ferrari21
10Marussia-Cosworth0
11Caterham-Renault0
12HRT-Cosworth0