Barnsley Central destroys last remnants of Clegg's credibility

Barnsley Central by-election result Lab hold
Dan Jarvis Labour 14724 (61%, +14)
Jane Collins UKIP 2953 (12%, +8)
James Hockley Conservatives 1999 (8%, -9)
Enis Dalton BNP 1463 (6%, -3)
Tony Devoy Independent 1266 (5%, +5)
Dominic Carman Lib Dems 1012 (4%, -13) 
Other candidates 802 (3%)
Total votes: 24219 Turnout: 36.5% Majority 11771

 THE LIBERAL Democrats hit a humiliating low last night after their candidate Dominic Carman finished in sixth place and lost his deposit.

Mr Carman, son of the late QC George Carman, mustered just 1012 votes (4%) to be beaten by the BNP and a local independent as well as the top-three Labour, UKIP and the Conservatives.

In this Labour heartland, Dan Jarvis won as easily as expected with almost 61% of the vote for a majority of 11771 over second-placed UKIP candidate Jane Collins.

And, given the sheer inevitability of the result, the big story became the pecking order of the candidates behind former Parachute Regiment officer Mr Jarvis.

On a bad night for the coalition government as a whole, Conservative prospect James Hockley polled 1999 votes (8%) to be beaten into third by UKIP.

But, the biggest downfall was reserved for the Lib Dems who had been placed in second in the 2010 General Election in May on 17%.

This time, they failed even to match the 1463 votes of Enis Dalton from the far-right BNP (6%) or the 1266 votes for local independent Tony Devoy (5%).

In truth, the result seems a little harsh on Mr Carman who "had a horrendous campaign, canvassing daily to repeated abuse and with virtually no senior figures to help him", according to Guardian journalist Martin Wainwright on Twitter.

And that lack of support belies the low confidence of leader Nick Clegg for whom this rout represents an indelible blot on the copybook.

For, until now, reports of a collapse in the Lib Dem support since the General Election existed only in the form of some woeful opinion polls.

At their first major test in the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election in January, the Lib Dem escaped unscathed thanks to tactical voting from their Tory partners.

But, this time, UKIP provided the alternative for many Conservative voters after running a strong campaign. 

Nigel Farage's Eurosceptic party appealed to a much wider demographic than usual, their single-issue politics of Europe expanded to include pension reform, weekly bin collections and student grants.

It should also be noted that UKIP did much better than the other parties to mobilise its vote on a dismal overall turnout of 36.5% on a drizzly day in south Yorkshire.

Of course, a Labour victory in Barnsley comes as no surprise whatsoever. Barnsley has elected a Labour MP in every election since 1935 and this is indeed territory in which the old joke about a donkey with a red rosette being elected actually applies.

But, while Barnsley Central is no bellwether of future political fortunes in UK elections, this could yet prove to be a watershed moment for the Lib Dems.

This morning, Nick Clegg appeared as defiant as ever, and said: ""I have no doubt people will try to use this single result to write off the Liberal Democrats.

"They have done it in the past and we have proved them wrong and we will prove them wrong again."

It is true that the Lib Dems suffered even worse results in their history before recovering steadily over the past two decades to become a party of government.

But those earlier embarrassments came in the party's infancy and grassroots supporters must be wondering what the value is of them being in government on days like this.

Mr Clegg would undoubtedly remind them of what they hope to achieve in government with 5th May and the referendum on the alternative vote now on the horizon.

However, even under AV, Labour would have won this seat in the first round of voting anyway, and that is the case for many deep-Red and true-Blue seats around the country.

By contrast, Lib Dem support seems a lot more susceptible to collapse and many party supporters fear a massacre at the local election polls on the same day as the referendum.

This week, Mr Clegg came under fire from the Telegraph for his dreadful handling of Prime Minister's Questions in David Cameron's absence. One Labour MP even felt compelled to ask: "What's the point of Nick Clegg?"

A political and electoral liability as he now is, perhaps it will not be long until Lib Dems are asking the same question themselves.