Miliband makes his breakthrough in Oldham

Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election result Lab hold
Debbie Abrahams Labour 14718 (42.1%, +10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins Lib Dems 11160 (31.9%, +0.3%)
Kashif Ali Conservatives 4481 (12.8%, -13.6%)
Paul Nuttall UKIP 2029 (5.8%, +1.9%)
Derek Adams BNP 1560 (4.5%, -1.2%)
Peter Allen Green 530 (1.5%)
Other candidates 452 (1.2%)
Total votes: 34930 Turnout: 48.1% Majority 3558


ED MILIBAND enjoyed his first major success as Labour leader after his party won an easy victory in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election.

Labour candidate Debbie Abrahams received 14718 votes (42%) for a majority of 3558 over second-placed Liberal Democrat hopeful Elwyn Watkins.

Mr Watkins defied the national polls to increase the Lib Dem share of the vote slightly from the General Election in May but this was no doubt a tactical by-product of the big collapse in the Conservative vote.

Of course, an opposition party winning a by-election should come as no great surprise - and, indeed, this was a seat which Labour held despite a dreadful result in May.

The last time a governing party gained a seat in a by-election was back in 1982 when Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives took Mitcham and Morden from Labour at the height of the Falklands war.

But the circumstances in which this by-election was convened should have given the Tories and the Lib Dems a fighting chance.

In what was a genuine three-way battle at the General Election, Labour feared that they may be punished at the polls for the actions of former Immigration minister Phil Woolas.

This by-election was caused by Woolas being found guilty of publishing lies, some of them malicious, about the Lib Dem candidate Mr Watkins.

Woolas was thrown out of the Labour party and barred from standing in elections for three years, though this probably signalled the end of his political career anyway.

With Woolas off the scene, it was the timing of this by-election which became so important with all the leaders from the three main parties wanting to get off to a good start in 2011.

Prime minister David Cameron even broke with convention to visit the constituency while his deputy, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, made three separate appearances in Oldham.

Despite Mr Cameron's visit, the Tories seemed to run a half-hearted campaign in the hope that their coalition partners could gain the seat by benefiting from tactical voting.

But, whatever tactics were indeed employed, they were not enough to stop Ms Abrahams taking the seat with a bigger majority than Woolas achieved in the 1997 Labour landslide.

Of course, the by-election did not come at a great time for the coalition government.

The Lib Dems' troubles following policy U-turns on VAT and tuition fees have been well-publicised but, in recent days, the pressure has been turned onto the Tories and their friends in the City.

During the General Election campaign, Mr Cameron called for banks in which the taxpayer owns a large stake not to give bonuses of more than £2000.

Yet, this week, the BBC reports that Lloyds Banking Group chief Eric Daniels is in line for a £2m bonus.

The previous Labour government bailed out Lloyds after it took over HBOS in 2008 but the taxpayer still holds a 41% stake now.

Bank bonuses running into the millions do not sit well with the electorate, especially along side the first wave of cuts to public sector jobs. It is a queasy juxtaposition, to say the least.

However, this by-election result and the coalition's troubles do not put Labour in the clear.

Polls show a plurality of the general public still blame the need for the coalition's cuts on Labour's mismanagement of the economy.

Indeed, after 13 years in power, Mr Miliband's party are perhaps unsurprisingly struggling to shrug off mistakes made during that time.

The expenses scandal also continues to rear its ugly head.

This week, Labour MP Eric Illsley forced to resign after admitting he claimed £14000 for insurance, repairs, utility bills and council tax at his second home between 2005 and 2008.

Mr Illsley's resignation will prompt another by-election, this time in his seat of Barnsley Central.

Labour will be expected to take the seat again but, given the dubious circumstances of the by-election, that cannot be said with certainty.

So, with none of the three main parties looking particularly appealing at present, it was no surprise to see turnout in Oldham East & Saddleworth drop by 13%.

Tellingly, this took the turnout to below 50% - thus, it was the apathy party which really won the race.