Election 2010: Gordon goes to the polls

PRIME MINISTER Gordon Brown confirmed today that the next general election will be held on Thursday 6 May.

Mr Brown made the widely expected announcement after going to Buckingham Palace to request the Queen dissolves Parliament.

Labour, in power since 1997, are seeking an historic fourth successive term but they have been behind the resurgent Conservatives in the polls since September 2007.

That was when Mr Brown - then a newly-appointed PM - dithered, failing to call an election after data from marginal seats suggested Labour would lose their majority.

A hung parliament where Labour are still the largest party would now probably be considered as good a result as possible for them.

And there is indeed a strong possibility of a first hung parliament since 1974.

Despite some handsome poll leads, the Conservatives need to win 117 seats for a majority of their own, a uniform swing of 7.5%.

That is something which the Tories last achieved in 1931 when Stanley Baldwin became PM. Even Margaret Thatcher's landslide 1979 victory was a result of a smaller overall 5.2% swing.

And, while it is clear that this government is now deeply unpopular across huge swathes of the country, voters remain sceptical about the alternative offered by David Cameron.

Notably, only one recent poll puts the Tories as high as 40%.

But, while the eventuality of a hung parliament may not even be enough for Mr Brown to cling on as PM, it would in fact be the best result for the Liberal Democrats.

Provided that their own vote holds up, Nick Clegg's Lib Dems would have an unprecedented level of power, free to negotiate an uneasy coalition with either of the main parties.

Understandably enough, with almost five weeks still to go until polling day, Mr Clegg has so far been coy over what he would do, should the situation arise.

His position as a potential kingmaker has at least been enough for him to be invited to take part in the first ever pre-election television debates.

The three debates will be on Sky, ITV and BBC with a focus on domestic affairs, foreign policy and economic policy respectively.

How great an effect the debates will have on the voting public is a matter of great speculation among political commentators.

It is widely acknowledged that Conservative leader Mr Cameron and Lib Dem leader Mr Clegg usually appear a lot smoother in front of the cameras than Mr Brown.

But playing to the cameras can be just as detrimental if the leader comes across as false and untrustworthy.

In my view, the effect of the debates has already been overstated, possibly because of their novelty.

Having not had them before, nobody knows exactly how each of the leaders will do.

But, with no fewer than 76 rules governing the debates, it seems unlikely that any of them will make a fatal error.

As ever, the most memorable events in the election are likely to be unplanned.

Even at this stage, though, the issues which will colour the campaign can already be spotted.

The Westminster village may chatter about election debates and poster campaigns but the real issues affecting everyday British people are clear.

The delicate balance of dealing with unemployment and Britain's massive deficit is a topic which is set to be brought up again and again.

Already, the rise in National Insurance has caused quite a stir with 37 business leaders supporting the Conservatives' pledge to reverse the policy, referring to it as a tax on jobs.

Meanwhile, the ever-increasing cost of fuel - the vast majority of which is tax - is also bad news for the incumbent Labour government.

But it is not only the government which is being rejected by the voters.

All of the main parties were implicated in the MPs expenses scandal and, consequently, the smaller parties in England and the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales are expecting to benefit.

For the first time, the likes of the Green Party, UKIP and - unfortunately - the BNP have genuine chances of representation in Westminster.

The Greens and the BNP are ploughing their resources into seats where they already have a foothold at a local level.

Specifically, that is in Brighton and Norwich for the Greens, and in Barking for the BNP where their vile leader Nick Griffin is standing.

UKIP's highest profile candidate Nigel Farage is breaking convention by standing against speaker John Bercow in Buckingham.

Mr Farage is aiming to take advantage of disgruntled Conservative voters unhappy at Mr Bercow's unashamed leanings towards New Labour.

Meanwhile, an increased number of independents are also expected to stand.

Perhaps the most high profile of those already confirmed is former That's Life presenter and Childline founder Esther Rantzen, standing in Luton South, set to be vacated by Margaret Moran.

Could Ms Rantzen become the 2010 equivalent of Martin Bell in 1997 by winning in the former seat of a disgraced MP?

Ms Moran infamously claimed expenses for dry rot on a house over 100 miles away from her constituency.

And, as if that was not enough, she has since been caught offering influential political lobbying for financial reward in a sting operation set up by the Channel 4 Dispatches programme.

More shockingly still, Ms Moran's office claimed she was unavailable to do any work on behalf of her constituents because she was "not very well".

Of course, such sorry episodes simply serve to drive people away from politics altogether.

Close elections, like this one, though, have historically resulted in an increased voter turnout.

In the last election as tight as this - in 1992 - over 33.5 million people voted in a 77.4% turnout.

That compares markedly to 2001 when only 26.3 million people cast their vote in a turnout of 59%.

Another aspect which may appease the public perception of Parliament and increase turnout is the fact that 147 MPs - including Ms Moran - are not seeking re-election, more than in 1945.

A clean slate of candidates, then, and maybe even a hung parliament offer a real chance to change the rules of the traditional Wesminster power games on 6 May.