Rugby World Cup preview: Rise and shine

POOL A

IRELAND - SCOTLAND - JAPAN - RUSSIA - SAMOA

THE RUGBY World Cup expands its horizons over the next six weeks as the Land of the Rising Sun, Japan, becomes the first ever Asian host of the tournament. 

Notably, it will also be the first edition of this World Cup to be held outside the traditional heartlands of rugby union - although it is only right that the huge strides made in Japanese rugby have been recognised.

Four years ago, the Cherry Blossoms stunned two-time champions South Africa, opting to push for a last-ditch try instead of taking a kick at the posts to secure a still highly creditable tie.

By then, Japan had already been named as the 2019 hosts - but the momentous 34-32 victory in Brighton was more than enough for governing body World Rugby to feel justified in their decision.

Unfortunately for them, the Japanese were subsequently stung by a fixture programme which required them to play Scotland only four days after beating the Springboks - and so the knockout stages remained out of reach.

As hosts this time, the schedule is far kinder to the Cherry Blossoms - but, as England fans can vouch from 2015, home advantage does not necessarily count for much.

Indeed, northern hemisphere standard-bearers Ireland are the obvious favourites to top Pool A as they seek to put their difficult World Cup history behind them on this occasion.

Remarkably, the Irish have never won a single knockout match in the 32 years of this competition - and they have become the archetypal quarter final team, with no fewer than six previous appearances at that stage. 

This time might just be different, though. After all, Ireland head into Japan 2019 in top spot in the rankings, although it is tight between the top five.

Ireland enjoyed an annus mirabalis in 2018 - as they won a Six Nations Grand Slam, a series away in Australia, and beat New Zealand for the second time in two years. 

It is only very recently, though, that the Irish reached the summit following their World Cup warm-up win over Wales in Dublin on 7 September. 

And yet 2019 has not been anywhere near as successful as 2018 as a sketchy third-place finish in the Six Nations was followed by a record defeat in another warm-up to England at Twickenham which belied a lack of squad depth.

Ireland may have peaked too soon for the World Cup having played so well during 2018 - and certainly Scotland will hope that is the case on 22 September. 

Scotland are slowly improving as a team - although, at times, the improvement has been glacial and their record is blighted by a seemingly never-ending inconsistency. 

A runners-up spot in the Pool will almost certainly bring a quarter final match against New Zealand or South Africa - and a likely seventh Scottish exit at that stage. 

Nevertheless, Scotland would do well to avoid being too focused on the Ireland match and instead heed the challenge posed by Japan and Samoa. 

The Japanese will be far less fatigued and far better backed in Yokohama than they were four years ago against the Scots when beaten 45-10 - while two-time quarter finalists Samoa got within three points in Newcastle. 

Samoa will no doubt bring their usual physicality to proceedings - but, having failed to win the annual Pacific Nations Cup since 2014, the islanders have perhaps seen better days

Finally, truly rank outsiders Russia round off the section and are genuinely glad just to have made it after they benefited from Romania and Spain being disqualified for multiple eligibility breaches during qualifying.

Even Bears coach Lyn Jones considers his side has a "mountain to climb", though at least the staging of the tournament in Japan means he will have plenty of choice.

POOL B
NEW ZEALAND - SOUTH AFRICA - ITALY - NAMIBIA - CANADA

For holders and favourites New Zealand - and South Africa - the 2019 Rugby World Cup offers no gentle introduction.

In a repeat of the 1995 Final, the two southern hemisphere giants face each other in a Pool match on just the second day of the tournament (21 September) - and it is expected that the outcome will go a long way to decide which of the pair tops this section.

On for a hat-trick of world titles, New Zealand unsurprisingly begin this defence in their customary position as favourites - but this current side is vulnerable to an upset.

The All Blacks could only draw with South Africa and suffered a record defeat to Australia in Perth so finished the Rugby Championship down in third out of four with only Argentina below them.

Meanwhile, a decade-long unbroken monopoly at the top of the world rankings has twice been broken in the last couple of months by Wales, briefly, and Ireland, currently.

A recovery of sorts brought a phenomenal 36-0 shut-out against the Aussies at Eden Park to retain the Bledisloe Cup and, then more recently, an absolute trouncing of Tonga.

Nevertheless, South Africa sense a big chance of joining the New Zealanders on three World Cups wins after taking the most recent Rugby Championship.

Unbeaten in this calendar year, the Springboks appear to have fully turned the corner after the disastrous reign of Allister Coetzee, in which they lost twice in humiliating fashion by record scores to New Zealand and were even defeated for the first time by Italy.

Now, in terms of qualification for the next stage, Pool B looks the most straightforward of all of the groups.

After all, neither New Zealand or South Africa are likely to face much threat from the other three teams - Italy, Namibia, or Canada.

The Azzurri have been ever-presents at the Rugby World Cup since its inception in 1987 but have yet to make it through the group stages - although, in fairness, they have regularly been pitted against the All Blacks.

Their next meeting in Toyota on 12 October will be a sixth World Cup Pool match between the teams with New Zealand coming out on top in all five previous clashes by an average of almost 60 points.

Certainly, hopes of a massive shock are not high for an Italian team which has won just one Six Nations match out of the last 30 since the start of the 2014 campaign and lost all three warm-up fixtures against Tier I opponents.

But, having recorded two wins and two losses at each of the four editions held from 2003 onwards, yet another third-place finish in Japan will once again guarantee them a spot at the 2023 edition in France.

Namibia, similarly, are regular qualifiers for the Rugby World Cup - which, incidentally, for the first time in its history, has no teams making their debut.

The Welwitschias have, in fact, qualified for a sixth World Cup in succession – but they head into their first Pool match against Italy on 22 September looking to avoid defeat for the first time on the big stage.

Perhaps a better chance for Namibia will present itself on 13 October when they take on a Canada team ranked only just above them.

Historically, the Canucks have been pretty competitive and even reached the quarter finals in 1991.

However, in more recent times, the North Americans’ star has dwindled - they were the last team to qualify for Japan 2019 and the four defeats out of four at the 2015 tournament was their worst return yet.

POOL C
ENGLAND - FRANCE - ARGENTINA - UNITED STATES - TONGA

AFTER four long years, England at last have the chance to bury the ghoulish memories of 2015 when they became the first ever Rugby World Cup hosts to drop out at the Pool stage.

English rugby suffered considerable embarrassment at that failure - but, under Australian head coach Eddie Jones, there has subsequently been a steady recovery.

Now ranked third heading into the World Cup, England are considered by many people to be the most likely side to knock New Zealand off their perch.

There have, after all, been some seriously impressive results since 2015 and, in this period, England can boast a winning record against all of the other Tier I teams - except for the All Blacks.

Equally, though, England remain an incredibly flaky outfit against all of their major opponents, something which was neatly demonstrated in the Six Nations earlier this year.

Not only did England give up a half-time lead in Cardiff to end up losing 21-13 to Wales, it was followed by an even bigger collapse from 31-0 up to 38-38 in the draw against Scotland at Twickenham.

Worryingly, a six-week tournament will run long enough to expose those frailties again - although England are far from the most fragile team in Pool C.

France used to be regularly criticised for their own lack of consistency - but, if anything, this problem has been replaced by something even worse.

Les Bleus, quite frankly, are a soft touch nowadays, failing to win in 55 of their 89 matches (61.8%) since they reached the World Cup Final in 2011.

The 44-8 thrashing at Twickenham in February was France's biggest defeat to England since they lost 37-0 in 1911, as well as their biggest loss to any team in the Five or Six Nations since that same match.

It hardly bodes well for French hopes in a repeat of the fixture to be staged on 12 October in Yokohama - and, instead, the Pool opener against Argentina on 21 September looks like a much bigger encounter.

France are marginal favourites for the clash in the Japanese capital Tokyo - but it should perhaps be the other way around.

True, the Argentines have picked up the Wooden Spoon in the Rugby Championship in all but one of the eight years in which they have competed, including each of the last four.

But there are gradual signs that regular exposure to top level southern hemisphere rugby is having a positive effect.

For instance, the Buenos Aires-based Jaguares club became the first Argentine team to reach the Super Rugby final - and they now supply no fewer than 26 of Los Ticos' 31 players.

Argentina, of course, are no strangers to the latter stages of a World Cup, having reached the semi finals in both 2007 and 2015 - so another deep run cannot be discounted this time around either.

Tonga and the United States - the Sea Eagles and the Eagles respectively - complete the Pool C line-up, and their tie in Osaka on the last day of the group phase will likely to decide which of the teams finishes in fourth place.

Now, undoubtedly, the Tongans have previously had some fine days at the Rugby World Cup, not least their 19-14 victory over France in 2011, a repeat of which will take place in Kumamoto on 6 October.

However, in their most recent outings, the Sea Eagles finished down in fifth place in the Pacific Nations Cup before being hammered 92-7 by New Zealand.

By contrast, the Americans have had some pretty decent results inside the last 15 months including victories over Scotland and Samoa twice.

A fourth win in World Cup matches is within the grasp of the Eagles' talons. 

POOL D
AUSTRALIA - WALES - GEORGIA - FIJI - URUGUAY

WALES face some familiar foes in Pool D as they attempt to reach a first ever World Cup Final at the third attempt under long-serving legendary Kiwi coach Warren Gatland.

Under Gatland, Wales have reestablished themselves as a major force in world rugby, rising from 10th in the rankings when he took over to their present position of fifth.

On the way, the Welsh have won the Grand Slam in the Six Nations on three occasions and reached a World Cup semi final in 2011, only to lose to eventual runners-up France.

This time, Gatland's charges have again been grouped alongside Australia, the pair having been pooled together at the last World Cup with both qualifying for the knockout stages at the expense of hosts England.

Australia went on to reach the Final, where they were soundly defeated by an all-conquering All Blacks side - but hopes Down Under of a repeat of appearance in the showpiece event on 2 November are unusually low.

The Aussies have dropped to sixth in the rankings and, since the last World Cup, hold a losing record against all of the sides above them, except for Wales.

In fact, Australia have lost all six of their most recent matches against England and also suffered a home series against Ireland for the first time since 1979.

Moreover, the most recent match against Pool rivals Wales ended in defeat - hardly an encouraging sign - while, astonishingly, it is now 17 years since the Wallabies have held the annual Bledisloe Cup series contested against New Zealand.

Australia will no doubt take some confidence from their excellent 47-26 win in Perth over the All Blacks just over five weeks ago - but a lot of the positivity from that was rapidly extinguished by the chastening shut out seven days later at Eden Park.

Certainly then, it would be fair to say that the Welsh would fancy themselves in the clash between the expected top two on 29 September in Tokyo.

However, it would equally fair to say that Wales have mixed memories of facing Pacific islanders Fiji in previous World Cups.

In 2007, the Fijians stunned the Welsh to win 38-34 in an incident-packed match laden which had nine tries altogether.

The Welsh, however, got their revenge four years later in Hamilton by becoming the first team in World Cup history to shut out Fiji in a 66-0 thrashing.

Fiji took a while to recover from that humiliating reverse but won four successive Pacific Nations Cups between 2015 and 2018.

Nevertheless, the most recent edition of that tournament this year saw Japan finish above the Flying Fijians - and so it would be most sensible if the islanders focused instead on their game against Georgia on 3 October in Osaka.

After all, the Georgians appear to be the real wildcards in Pool D. Four years ago, victories over Tonga and Namibia ensured a top-three group place and automatic qualification for this tournament.

However, that highly credible achievement will be tough to match with Fiji in the group - and Georgia missed their cue in their most recent big fixture against Italy last November.

Billed as a possible opening to a Six Nations place for the Georgians as a replacement to the tiresomely ineffective Italians, Georgia were beaten 28-17 by the Azzurri.

And so the likelihood of the biggest European teams visiting Tbilisi regularly has receded - for now.

Lastly, Uruguay complete the line-up for the 2019 Rugby World Cup, meaning Pool D distinctly resembles Pool A in 2015, only with Georgia in place of England.

Back then, the Uruguayans were, rather romantically, the only remaining amateur team at the tournament.

But things have moved on a touch in the intervening period and Los Teros can now boast total of 18 professional players in their ranks.

That is still short of a full squad, of course - and, in such a competitive section as this, the South Americans will do well to make much impact at all.

PREDICTION
▪️ Pool winners: Ireland, New Zealand, England, Wales
▪️ Pool runners-up: Scotland, South Africa, Argentina, Australia
▪️ Semi finalists: New Zealand v England, South Africa v Wales
▪️ FINAL South Africa beat England