F1 2012: Game on in São Paulo

TITLE PERMUTATIONS

Sebastian Vettel wins the title...

• if he finishes in the top four
• if he finishes between fifth and seventh, and Alonso is second or lower
• if he finishes between eighth or ninth, and Alonso is third or lower
• if Alonso fails to make it onto the podium 

Fernando Alonso wins the title...

• if he wins the race, and Vettel is fifth or lower
• if he finishes second, and Vettel is eighth or lower
• if he finishes third, and Vettel is 10th or lower, or fails to complete the race

FORMULA ONE 2012 gets its fitting finale in Brazil this weekend as Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso battle it out to become the youngest ever triple world champion.

Defending champion Vettel leads his Spanish rival by 13 points going into the last race of the season at the Interlagos circuit in São Paulo.

The advantage means that, unless Alonso can finish on the podium, his chance of adding to his two titles in 2005 and 2006 will be over.

Vettel, however, has more room for error. Any top-four finish will give the German a third consecutive Drivers' Championship, while he will also succeed with a finish between fifth and seventh if Alonso is second or lower.

Even if Vettel finishes eighth or ninth, he will win the title if Alonso is third or lower - and, in fact, even if Vettel is 10th or lower or does not complete the race, he will still be champion if Alonso finishes off the podium.

Now, as if it was not abundant from all of that, Vettel is the heavy favourite to take yet another record from the late, great Ayrton Senna.

Red Bull, who sealed a third successive Constructors' crown last weekend in Texas, have had the best car in the latter half of the season - and Vettel himself put together a magnificent four-in-a-row winning streak with victories in Singapore, Japan, Korea and India.

That sequence set the German up to win the title at the US Grand Prix in Austin - and it looked even more likely when he put his Red Bull on pole again while Alonso laboured to ninth on the grid.

From then on, though, it went much better in Texas for Alonso.

New Mercedes man Lewis Hamilton denied Vettel victory in an emotional penultimate race for McLaren, his fourth win of the season and his 21st for the Woking-based team, with whom he has been since he was aged 13.

Meanwhile, Ferrari decided intentionally to break the seal on the gearbox of Felipe Massa's sister car, costing the Brazilian a penalty of five places.

That promoted Alonso to eighth and, perhaps more vitally, put him on the cleaner side of the grid, also said to be worth two positions better.

It was a Machiavellian move, for sure, but - with team orders suspended in this campaign - it was within the rules.

Moreover, the ploy relied on Alonso taking advantage and performing well, anyway.

Of course, the Spaniard did - finishing immediately behind Vettel in third - and so here we are, with 71 laps of the season left and still a title to decide.

The main problem for Alonso is that, while he has grafted for points all autumn - with no fewer than six podium finishes out of eight since the summer break - the fact remains that he has not led a single lap of a race since the German Grand Prix in July.

Indeed, if he does end up winning this championship, it really would be a remarkable achievement against the odds.

Also, Vettel really should not be conceding a 13-point advantage in the last race if the whole team gets its basics right in terms of set-up and pit stops.

Quite often, though, something special happens in Formula One.

In 2010, Alonso was the form driver heading into a season finale in Abu Dhabi but his inability to find a way past Russian Vitaly Petrov handed Vettel his first world title.

Somehow, Alonso needs something unexpected to happen again, except this time in his favour. The safe money, however, is still on the Vettel hat-trick.


A full review on F1 2012 will feature on TheIntrepidReporter blog, following my trip to Prague next week. Good luck, Herr Vettel and Señor Alonso.
  
CALENDAR

Date	TV		Pole position	Fastest lap	Winner
18 March	Sky	Australian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Button	Button
25 March	Sky	Malaysian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Raikkonen	Alonso
15 April	BBC	Chinese Grand Prix	Rosberg	Kobayashi	Rosberg
22 April	Sky	Bahrain Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Vettel
13 May	BBC	Spanish Grand Prix	Maldonado	Grosjean	Maldonado
27 May	BBC	Monaco Grand Prix	Webber	Perez	Webber
10 June	Sky	Canadian Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Hamilton
24 June	BBC	European Grand Prix	Vettel	Rosberg	Alonso
8 July	BBC	British Grand Prix	Alonso	Raikkonen	Webber
22 July	Sky	German Grand Prix	Alonso	Schumacher	Alonso
29 July	Sky	Hungarian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Vettel	Hamilton
2 September	BBC	Belgian Grand Prix	Button	Senna	Button
9 September	Sky	Italian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Rosberg	Hamilton
23 September	BBC	Singapore Grand Prix	Hamilton	Hülkenberg	Vettel
7 October	Sky	Japanese Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Vettel
14 October	BBC	Korean Grand Prix	Webber	Webber	Vettel
28 October	Sky	Indian Grand Prix	Vettel	Button	Vettel
4 November	BBC	Abu Dhabi Grand Prix	Hamilton	Vettel	Raikkonen
18 November	Sky	United States Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Hamilton
25 November	BBC	Brazilian Grand Prix

STANDINGS
Drivers' Championship

P	Driver	Team	Points
01	Sebastian Vettel (Ger)	Red Bull-Renault	273 (5 wins)
02	Fernando Alonso (Spa)	Ferrari	260 (3 wins)
03	Kimi Raikkonen (Fin)	Lotus-Renault	206 (1 win)
04	Lewis Hamilton (Gbr)	McLaren-Mercedes	190 (4 wins)
05	Mark Webber (Aus)	Red Bull-Renault	167 (3 wins)
06	Jenson Button (Gbr)	McLaren-Mercedes	163 (2 wins)
07	Felipe Massa (Brz)	Ferrari	107
08	Romain Grosjean (Fra)	Lotus-Renault	96
09	Nico Rosberg (Ger)	Mercedes GP	93
10	Sergio Perez (Mex)	Sauber-Ferrari	66
11	Kamui Kobayashi (Jpn)	Sauber-Ferrari	58
12	Nico Hulkenberg (Ger)	Force India-Mercedes	53
13	Paul di Resta (Gbr)	Force India-Mercedes	46
14	Pastor Maldonado (Ven)	Williams-Renault	45 (1 win)
15	Michael Schumacher (Ger)	Mercedes GP	43
16	Bruno Senna (Brz)	Williams-Renault	31
17	Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra)	Toro Rosso-Ferrari	12
18	Daniel Ricciardo (Aus)	Toro Rosso-Ferrari	10
19	Timo Glock (Ger)	Marussia-Cosworth	0
20	Heikki Kovalainen (Fin)	Caterham-Renault	0
21	Vitaly Petrov (Rus)	Caterham-Renault	0
22	Jerome d'Ambrosio (Bel)	Lotus-Renault	0
23	Charles Pic (Fra)	Marussia-Cosworth	0
24	Narain Karthikeyan (Ind)	HRT-Cosworth	0
25	Pedro de la Rosa (Spa)	HRT-Cosworth	0

Constructors' Championship: 
Champions - Red Bull-Renault 

P	Team	Points
01	Red Bull-Renault	440 (7 wins)
02	Ferrari	367 (3 wins)
03	McLaren-Mercedes	353 (5 wins)
04	Lotus-Renault	302 (1 win)
05	Mercedes GP	136 (1 win)
06	Sauber-Ferrari	124
07	Force India-Mercedes	99
08	Williams-Renault	76 (1 win)
09	Toro Rosso-Ferrari	22
10	Marussia-Cosworth	0
11	Caterham-Renault	0
12	HRT-Cosworth	0