Thursday 19 May 2011

The Season 2010/11: Survival Sunday calculations

Premier League
Full Table
MANCHESTER UNITED secured an English-record 19th league title last weekend as a late Wayne Rooney penalty ensured the Red Devils came away with a 1-1 draw against Blackburn Rovers.

Sir Alex Ferguson's men have finally overcome Liverpool's long-standing record thanks largely to a phenomenal home record in this season of 17 wins and a draw.

However, Man United's away record in the league has been less impressive with just five wins throughout the campaign - the same amount as Ian Holloway's Blackpool.

Ferguson's men produced another edgy away performance at Ewood Park, falling behind to a Brett Emerton first-half goal after a mix-up involving stand-in keeper Tomasz Kuszczak

But, Man United eased their way back into the contest and Rooney kept his cool to convert a 73rd-minute spot-kick and send the large travelling army of supporters into raptures.

Meanwhile, cross-city rivals Manchester City enjoyed the prelude to their FA Cup Final win over Stoke City by beating rivals Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 to qualify for the Champions League for the first time.

A year ago, Peter Crouch scored the only goal as Spurs beat Man City late in the season to reach Europe's elite competition.

And Crouch was on target again in the repeat fixture - but, this time, he could only divert the ball into his own net, ensuring Roberto Mancini's men would finish somewhere in the top-four.

Indeed, Man City are now favourites to finish third after a second win over Stoke in a week took advantage of another Arsenal lapse after Arsene Wenger's men were beaten at home to Aston Villa on Sunday.

Spurs had similarly been on an ill-timed poor run of form but Harry Redknapp's men at least beat a resurgent Liverpool team under Kenny Dalglish at Anfield to leapfrog their hosts into a Europa League spot.

And so, with most of the important matters at the top of the table already decided, attention will turn to an extraordinary situation at the bottom.

Five of the bottom six heading into Survival Sunday, as it stands, are separated by just a single point and many of the teams carry similar goal differences:

15Blackburn Rovers371010174357-1440
16Wolverhampton Wndrs37117194463-1940
17Birmingham City37815143656-2039
18Blackpool37109185374-2139
19Wigan Athletic37815143961-2239
20West Ham United (R)37712184367-2433

Selected final-day fixtures (kick-off: 4pm)
Manchester United v Blackpool
Stoke City v Wigan Athletic
Tottenham Hotspur v Birmingham City
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers

Only West Ham United have been so far relegated after a dreadful campaign, neatly summed up by their penultimate match against Wigan Athletic at the DW Stadium in which they gave away a 2-0 half-time lead.

That 3-2 win, thanks to two goals from Charles N'Zogbia and one from Connor Sammon, has given Wigan a chance of salvation heading into the last day.

However, as you can see, the permutations for each of the five teams involved are far from straightforward:

BLACKBURN ROVERS
Win (43 points)
- Definitely safe
Draw (41 points)
- Rovers will remain above Wolves on goal difference, and will be safe UNLESS Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan all win
Loss (40 points)
- Rovers will be relegated IF they suffer a particularly heavy loss AND two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan draw
- Rovers will also be relegated IF they lose by any score AND two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan win

WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Win (43 points)
- Definitely safe
Draw (41 points)
- Wolves will remain below Blackburn on goal difference but will only be relegated IF two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan win
Loss (40 points)
- If Wolves lose by one goal, they will be relegated IF two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan win
- If Wolves lose by two or three-goal margins, they will be relegated IF Birmingham and Blackpool draw, OR one of those teams draws and Wigan win
- If Wolves lose by four+ goals, they will be relegated IF two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan get a draw

BIRMINGHAM CITY
Win (42 points)
- The Blues will be safe UNLESS the Wolves-Blackburn match produces a winner AND both Blackpool and Wigan win by a greater margin than Birmingham
Draw (40 points)
- Birmingham will be relegated IF both Blackpool and Wigan win. Also relegated IF one of Blackpool and Wigan wins UNLESS Wolves are beaten by two goals
Loss (39 points)
- Birmingham will be relegated IF both Blackpool and Wigan draw OR they suffer less severe defeats - Blackpool need to be one-goal better while Wigan need to be two-goals better off.
- Birmingham will also go down IF either Blackpool or Wigan draw AND the other escapes with the aforementioned narrower defeat than Blues

BLACKPOOL
Win (42 points)
- Blackpool will be safe UNLESS the Wolves-Blackburn match produces a winner AND Birmingham and Wigan both win. Note: Wigan require a greater margin of victory than Blackpool.
Draw (40 points)
- Blackpool will be relegated if Birmingham draw or win OR Wigan win UNLESS Wolves are beaten by two goals
Loss (39 points)
- Blackpool will be relegated UNLESS Wigan also lose AND Birmingham lose by at least one more goal than Ian Holloway's men

WIGAN ATHLETIC
Win (42 points)
- Wigan will be safe UNLESS the Wolves-Blackburn match produces a winner AND Birmingham and Blackpool both also win
Draw (40 points)
- Wigan will be relegated IF both Birmingham and Blackpool draw
- Wigan will also be relegated IF one of Birmingham or Blackpool also draws UNLESS Wolves are beaten by four goals
Loss (39 points)
- Wigan will be relegated UNLESS both Birmingham and Blackpool lose by at least two goals more than the Latics

No comments:

Post a Comment