World Snooker preview: Odds against Robertson and the Rocket

OVER the next 17 days, Neil Robertson will aim to become the first ever first-time winner at the Crucible to retain the World Snooker Championship.

The Crucible Curse is so legendary that it even has its own Wikipedia page showing how every single first-time winner has failed to defend the title successfully.

Joe Johnson in 1987 and Ken Doherty in 1998 have come closest to this achievement, reaching the Final before losing to Steve Davis and John Higgins respectively.

But even the greats like Davis, winner of six world crowns, and Stephen Hendry, winner of seven, could not retain their first one - although the pair are the only men to win any back-to-back titles at the Crucible.

Hendry did this most recently in 1996, but that is now 15 years ago.

And the fact that only Davis and Hendry have managed to do it at all makes it clear just how difficult it is to retain the title since the Championships moved to the Sheffield venue.

Eventually, it seems, the mental strain of a second long run becomes too much, particularly in the present era where the quality of the field is much deeper and little bits of luck play an even greater part.

Thus, the odds must be heavily stacked against Robertson lifting the trophy this year - or even of him reaching the latter stages.

Remarkably, it has been nine years since a defending champion made it to the semi finals - and five years since a reigning world champion even got past the second round.

Australian Robertson also comes into the tournament in a trough of form having failed to make it past the second round of the last three ranking events.

By contrast, his first opponent in Sheffield, 21-year-old Judd Trump, made his breakthrough by beating Mark Selby 10-8 to win the China Open for his first ranking title.

Nevertheless, Robertson's form is nothing like as concerning as that of three-time champion Ronnie O'Sullivan.

The mercurial O'Sullivan has not won an official match in this calendar year since he landed another Premier League snooker title in November.

And even more worryingly, he has withdrawn from two major ranking events, the Shanghai Masters and the German Masters, and 10 of the 12 minor ones that comprise the new Players Tour Championship.

It has now emerged this week that O'Sullivan had also wished to pull out of these World Championships and so, as often is the case, clearly something is wrong for him mentally.

Worse still, O'Sullivan has landed in a tough quarter of the draw which also includes the in-form John Higgins who has bounced back brilliantly from a tough year.

First, Higgins was cleared of match-fixing but still banned for six months for bringing the game into disrepute and then his father, John senior, lost his battle against cancer.

However, since his comeback - and inspired by his father's death - Higgins has returned to top form, winning his 22nd major title by beating Mark J Williams to secure the UK Championship.

Unsurprisingly, then, the bookmakers make Higgins favourite to lift a fourth world title on Monday, 2nd May in the last of 31 matches at this year's World Championships.

2011 WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIPS
FIRST ROUND
(Best of 19 frames)

First Quarter
Judd Trump beat Neil Robertson (1) 10-8
Martin Gould beat Marco Fu (16) 10-8
R2 Judd Trump v Martin Gould
Graeme Dott (9) beat Mark King 10-7
Allister Carter (8) beat Dave Harold 10-3
R2 Graeme Dott (9) v Allister Carter (8)

The top quarter features defending champion Neil Robertson and his tough first test against Judd Trump. Therafter, Robertson could face some familiar faces from his successful 2010 run. Martin Gould is a possible second round opponent in what would be a reprise of their last 16 clash which Robertson won 13-12 having been 6-0 and 11-5 down. Then, if Aussie Robertson gets as far as the quarter finals, he is likely to face Ali Carter, who he beat 17-12 in the semi finals, or Graeme Dott, who he beat 18-13 in the Final itself.

Second Quarter
Ding Junhui (5) beat Jamie Burnett 10-2
Stuart Bingham beat Peter Ebdon (12) 10-8
R2 Ding Junhui (5) v Stuart Bingham
Stephen Hendry (13) beat Joe Perry 10-9
Mark Selby (4) beat Jimmy Robertson 10-1
R2 Stephen Hendry (13) v Mark Selby (4)

Out of the seeds in the second quarter of the draw, there are two men who have already won it - and two other men who are desperate to do it for the first time. Of course, Stephen Hendry has no fewer than seven titles to his name but the last of these came in 1999 and indifferent form throughout this season would not suggest he is about to land an eighth. Peter Ebdon is the only other former winner in this part of the draw after his memorable 18-17 victory over Hendry in 2002. Mark Selby was runner-up in 2007 and has gained a reputation for struggling in the finals of ranking events while Ding Junhui's best finish at the Crucible is surprisingly just the second round.

Third Quarter
Mark J Williams (3) beat Ryan Day 10-5
Jamie Cope (14) beat Andrew Pagett 10-7
R2 Mark Williams (3) v Jamie Cope (14)
Mark Allen (11) beat Matthew Stevens 10-9 
Barry Hawkins beat Stephen Maguire (6) 10-9
R2 Mark Allen (11) v Barry Hawkins

The Welsh dominate the third quarter of the draw with two-time champion Mark J Williams taking on compatriot Ryan Day in the first round. Another Welshman Andrew Pagett will make his Crucible debut and, if he holds his nerve, may fancy his chances of an upset against the inconsisent Jamie Cope. And a fourth Welshman, Matthew Stevens, who is unseeded despite being twice runner-up, could take advantage of the fragile state of Mark Allen after the Northern Irish player became the latest casualty of depression. In the fourth tie of this quarter, Scotsman Stephen Maguire will be favourite against Barry Hawkins as he continues his search for a first world title .

Fourth Quarter
Shaun Murphy (7) beat Marcus Campbell 10-1
Ronnie O'Sullivan (10) beat Dominic Dale 10-2
R2 Shaun Murphy (7) v Ronnie O'Sullivan (10)
Rory McLeod beat Ricky Walden (15) 10-6
John Higgins (2) beat Stephen Lee 10-5
R2 Rory McLeod v John Higgins (2)

Ronnie O'Sullivan faces a tough assignment if he is to make it into the latter stages of this year's World Championships though he should have enough against Dominic Dale, for whom this is a first appearance at the Crucible since 2004. After that, though, the Rocket is likely to face 2005 champion Shaun Murphy in the second round - and, even if he is successful there, possibly a quarter final clash with the inspired John Higgins. Interestingly, the Ricky Walden-Rory McLeod contest features two players still looking for their first-ever win in front of the Crucible crowd.

SECOND ROUND
(Best of 25 frames)

Judd Trump beat Martin Gould 13-6
Graeme Dott (9) beat Allister Carter (8) 13-11
QF Judd Trump v Graeme Dott (9)

Ding Junhui (5) beat Stuart Bingham 13-12
Mark Selby (4) beat Stephen Hendry (13) 13-4
QF Ding Junhui (5) v Mark Selby (4)

Mark J Williams (3) beat Jamie Cope (14) 13-4
Mark Allen (11) beat Barry Hawkins 13-12
QF Mark J Williams (3) v Mark Allen (11)

Ronnie O'Sullivan (10) beat Shaun Murphy (7) 13-10
John Higgins (2) beat Rory McLeod 13-7
QF Ronnie O'Sullivan (10) v John Higgins (2)

QUARTER FINALS
(Best of 25 frames)

Judd Trump beat Graeme Dott (9) 13-5
Ding Junhui (5) beat Mark Selby (4) 13-10

Mark J Williams (3) beat Mark Allen (11) 13-5
John Higgins (2) beat Ronnie O'Sullivan (10) 13-10

SEMI FINALS
(Best of 33 frames)

Judd Trump beat Ding Junhui (5) 17-15
John Higgins (2) beat Mark J Williams (3) 17-14

Tournament Centuries (69)
138 Mark King, Ding Junhui
137 Mark J Williams
135 John Higgins
134 Stuart Bingham
133 Stephen Hendry
132 John Higgins
131 John Higgins
129 Mark Selby
128 Ding Junhui, Ronnie O'Sullivan
127 Neil Robertson, Mark Selby
125 Mark Selby, Mark J Williams
124 John Higgins, Mark Selby
123 Judd Trump, John Higgins
122 Judd Trump, Graeme Dott
121 John Higgins, Ding Junhui
120 Graeme Dott, John Higgins
119 Ronnie O'Sullivan, Ding Junhui
117 Ding Junhui, Stephen Hendry, Barry Hawkins, Mark Selby
116 Ronnie O'Sullivan
115 Marco Fu, Ronnie O'Sullivan, Allister Carter, Mark Williams
114 Mark Allen, Stephen Hendry, Ding Junhui
113 Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark J Williams
112 Allister Carter
111 Graeme Dott
110 Judd Trump
109 Mark J Williams
108 Judd Trump, Mark Selby
107 Mark Selby
106 Mark J Williams
105 Ronnie O'Sullivan, Judd Trump, Mark J Williams
104 Allister Carter, Judd Trump, Mark J Williams
103 Mark Allen, Mark J Williams
102 Graeme Dott, Mark Allen, Ding Junhui, Judd Trump
101 John Higgins, Stephen Lee, Stuart Bingham
100 Neil Robertson, Shaun Murphy, Ronnie O'Sullivan, Marco Fu, Mark Selby, Mark Allen