Tuesday 8 November 2016

US election 2016: Clinton on a knife-edge

THE MOST bitter and divisive US Presidential election in decades mercifully draws to a close overnight as America decides between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Democrat candidate Mrs Clinton still holds the lead in almost all of the national polls - but, as election day has got closer, so undoubtedly have those polls.

Moreover, the popular vote is not even the decisive factor. It is possible, as George W Bush proved against Al Gore in 2000, to lose in terms of the total number of votes and yet still win the election.

The reason behind this is the electoral college system in which a candidate requires 270 electoral college votes to win.

Based largely on the population of a state, demographics across America have resulted in the majority of states becoming either dependably blue for the Democrats or reliably red for the Republicans.

As such, it can be safely predicted that California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12), and the District of Columbia (3) will all fall into Mrs Clinton's column for a total of 204 electoral college votes.

Likewise, Mr Trump can expect to win Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3) for an overall tally of 164.
However, the map of swing states - where the turnout of a candidate's vote really counts - is far wider in 2016 than it was in 2012.

Also, four years ago, incumbent Barack Obama could count on holding the upper hand in nearly every single so-called 'purple' state

But, for Mrs Clinton this time around, that is simply not the case. 

Indeed, on the eve of the election proper, Florida (29), Nevada (6), and North Carolina (15) are complete toss-ups. 

Worse still, she trails in Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), and Ohio (18), all of which are thought to be up for grabs.

Fortunately for Mrs Clinton, she continues to have far more pathways to victory than Mr Trump.

Converting narrow leads in Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10) would be enough for Mrs Clinton to become the first ever female President of the United States without her needing any of those other swing states.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

And if Mrs Clinton managed to pull off a win in Arizona, Florida or North Carolina, Mr Trump would find it just about impossible to succeed.

On final analysis then, Mrs Clinton is still a clear favourite in this election. 

Nevertheless, victory - if it does indeed arrive - will have been nowhere near as comfortably achieved as expected.

This has been a bruising campaign for the 69-year-old former New York senator right from the primary season when she faced an unexpectedly tough challenge from Bernie Sanders.

Having eventually won that race, Mrs Clinton has since been dogged by accusations that she may have breached federal rules during her time as Secretary of State by using a private email account for official business.

For the record, Mrs Clinton was cleared in July after a systematic analysis by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

But astonishingly, 11 days before the election, the FBI announced that newly discovered emails had come to light and it was re-opening its investigation.

On Sunday, FBI director James Comey cleared Mrs Clinton again. Nevertheless, the resurfacing of the story chimed well among some wavering voters with Mr Trump's repeated assertion that his opponent is corrupt.

And, consequently, it has dashed any possibility of a Clinton landslide, something had started to look increasingly during the month of October.

Yes, just a month ago, all the heat was on Mr Trump as a recording from 2005 was released in which he used explicit language, and claimed he could kiss and grope women because he is "a star".

Mr Trump, who had been accused of sexism on several occasions, later apologised for the remarks, claiming they did not reflect who he was.

But the damage was done and many Republicans withdrew their support including 2008 nominee, Arizona senator John McCain, and former Secretary of State in the Bush administration, Condoleezza Rice.

Somehow, it got worse for Mr Trump. In the days following the release of the tape, a steady stream of women came forward to suggest the recording did, in fact, reflect who he was.

Fighting fire with fire, Mr Trump held an impromptu press conference with women who have accused Mrs Clinton's husband, 42nd President Bill Clinton, of sexual assault.

It was the day, the BBC declared, that this election had gone down the drain - but, arguably, Mr Trump has never risen above the cesspit.

At the very launch of his bid for the presidency, he demonised Mexican immigrants as rapists and has constantly threatened to build a wall on the border between Mexico and the United States.

Meanwhile, his response to the San Bernardino terrorist attack in California was to "ban all Muslims" from entering the country. 

It is perhaps then no wonder that Mrs Clinton - despite her own imperfect campaign - still finds herself ahead.

Even then, though, an overnight victory - unless it is totally overwhelming - may not be the end of it. 

Mr Trump already on record saying he will not necessarily accept a result which does not go in his favour. Additionally, he has repeatedly claimed the election is rigged against him

Of course, the 70-year-old has already made so much investment, both financially and emotionally, to his tawdry campaign - and he has already suffered so much damage to his reputation. 

As such, being additionally labelled as a bad loser would, at this stage, barely make him flinch.

Ultimately then, this election may not, in fact, finish overnight after all. The best tip right now would be to brace yourself.
 
Coverage on BBC One begins at 11.15pm with the equivalent results programme on ITV starting slightly earlier at 10.40pm. Both broadcasts run through until breakfast news begins at 6am.

CLOSING TIMES
All times are GMT (number of electoral votes)

00:00 Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia (60)
00:30 North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia (38)
01:00 Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, DC 01:30 Arkansas (178)
02:00 Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming (156)
03:00 Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah (21)
04:00 California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington (82)
06:00 Alaska (3)

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