Wednesday 2 April 2014

Farage to the forefront after Europe debate

CLEGG v FARAGE: THE EUROPE DEBATES
26 MarchNigel Farage UKIP57%
LBC/SkyNick Clegg Lib Dems36%

Don't know7%
2 AprilNigel Farage UKIP68% (+11%)
BBCNick Clegg Lib Dems27% (-9%)

Don't know5% (-2%)

UKIP leader Nigel Farage scored a major victory over his Liberal Democrat counterpart Nick Clegg in the second debate on the European Union, hosted by the BBC last night.

Instant polling after the event by Yougov gave Mr Farage a big victory over Mr Clegg by an even more decisive margin than last week.

That should not really come as a surprise as, compared the first debate on LBC Radio and Sky, this match-up was a far more feisty and divisive affair from the start.

Mr Clegg began by accusing Mr Farage of an "absolutely indefensible" stance in favour of Russian President Vladimir Putin in respect of Syria and Ukraine.

In response, Mr Farage told the Deputy Prime Minister that he was "wilfully lying to the people" of Britain by stating only 7% of British laws came from Europe.

The UKIP leader suggested instead that the actual figure was closer to 75%, although the whole truth and nothing but the truth lies somewhere in between.

Overall, though, it was definitely Mr Farage who made the better impression in front of the cameras.

Mr Clegg was seen as overcompensating for a reserved performance in the first innings by looking to smear his opponent on Putin, and coming across as rather too shouty for his own good.

The move has appeared to have backfired stunningly with even one-third of Lib Dems and half of pro-European voters agreeing that Mr Farage had won.

It was yet another watershed for UKIP which holds the slightly odd distinction of being definitively now part of the British political mainstream, despite not having a single MP in Westminster.

Indeed, it is exactly that fact which continues to help UKIP, the faux anti-establishmentarianism being emphasised by Mr Farage in his closing speech.

Undoubtedly, then, UKIP can be happy with its decision to engage in the debates ahead of the European elections on 22 May.

Encouragingly for Mr Farage, 38% of viewers are now more likely to vote his party, according to a Guardian/ICM poll, with only 17% less likely and 37% unmoved.

The outcome has been far less positive, of course, for the Lib Dems, although the party is correct to state Mr Clegg had a more difficult and certainly less populist position to defend.

Nevertheless, being on the defensive was pretty much the default for the Deputy PM, and he offered few positive arguments in favour of staying in the EU.

Instead, there was just as much scaremongering from Mr Clegg about the loss of jobs if Britain leaves as Mr Farage spouted about immigration if the country remains tied to Brussels.

From a tactical perspective, though, it was understandable why the Lib Dems had opted to take Mr Farage head on.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Lib Dems - regularly in third behind UKIP in the national polls - are usually nowadays just in single figures in polling for the European elections.

As these elections use a form of proportional representation, such an outcome would mean the Lib Dems would most likely lose all 12 of their current MEPs.

It would be a total electoral disaster for Mr Clegg, worse even than some of his party's truly embarrassing by-election results in this Parliament.

So, by declaring himself as the only major party leader with an unambiguously pro-EU stance, Mr Clegg hoped to convince more of the British population who identify as being pro-European.

But the polling suggests that even this may not have worked, and some of this failure must surely be down to the way which Mr Clegg presented his arguments.

At least he turned up, though. By contrast, David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband were both conspicuous by their absence, instead choosing to trade blows earlier in the day at Prime Minister's Questions.

And, while the debate between Messrs Clegg and Farage could hardly be termed world-class, it was still quite a few levels above the pathetic playground exchanges in the House of Commons.

Of course, Mr Cameron refuses much to engage on the subject Europe, aware that doing so may expose the in-out rifts which still exist within his party.

Meanwhile, if anything, Mr Miliband is even more cautious in not wanting to give the unpopular appearance of being too pro-European while attempting to protect an increasingly fragile poll lead.

Their caution, and Mr Clegg's failure, may well play into Mr Farage's hands.

Much now depends on how much momentum the UKIP leader keeps between now and 22 May.

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