F1 2012: Game on in São Paulo

TITLE PERMUTATIONS

Sebastian Vettel wins the title...

• if he finishes in the top four
• if he finishes between fifth and seventh, and Alonso is second or lower
• if he finishes between eighth or ninth, and Alonso is third or lower
• if Alonso fails to make it onto the podium 

Fernando Alonso wins the title...

• if he wins the race, and Vettel is fifth or lower
• if he finishes second, and Vettel is eighth or lower
• if he finishes third, and Vettel is 10th or lower, or fails to complete the race

FORMULA ONE 2012 gets its fitting finale in Brazil this weekend as Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso battle it out to become the youngest ever triple world champion.

Defending champion Vettel leads his Spanish rival by 13 points going into the last race of the season at the Interlagos circuit in São Paulo.

The advantage means that, unless Alonso can finish on the podium, his chance of adding to his two titles in 2005 and 2006 will be over.

Vettel, however, has more room for error. Any top-four finish will give the German a third consecutive Drivers' Championship, while he will also succeed with a finish between fifth and seventh if Alonso is second or lower.

Even if Vettel finishes eighth or ninth, he will win the title if Alonso is third or lower - and, in fact, even if Vettel is 10th or lower or does not complete the race, he will still be champion if Alonso finishes off the podium.

Now, as if it was not abundant from all of that, Vettel is the heavy favourite to take yet another record from the late, great Ayrton Senna.

Red Bull, who sealed a third successive Constructors' crown last weekend in Texas, have had the best car in the latter half of the season - and Vettel himself put together a magnificent four-in-a-row winning streak with victories in Singapore, Japan, Korea and India.

That sequence set the German up to win the title at the US Grand Prix in Austin - and it looked even more likely when he put his Red Bull on pole again while Alonso laboured to ninth on the grid.

From then on, though, it went much better in Texas for Alonso.

New Mercedes man Lewis Hamilton denied Vettel victory in an emotional penultimate race for McLaren, his fourth win of the season and his 21st for the Woking-based team, with whom he has been since he was aged 13.

Meanwhile, Ferrari decided intentionally to break the seal on the gearbox of Felipe Massa's sister car, costing the Brazilian a penalty of five places.

That promoted Alonso to eighth and, perhaps more vitally, put him on the cleaner side of the grid, also said to be worth two positions better.

It was a Machiavellian move, for sure, but - with team orders suspended in this campaign - it was within the rules.

Moreover, the ploy relied on Alonso taking advantage and performing well, anyway.

Of course, the Spaniard did - finishing immediately behind Vettel in third - and so here we are, with 71 laps of the season left and still a title to decide.

The main problem for Alonso is that, while he has grafted for points all autumn - with no fewer than six podium finishes out of eight since the summer break - the fact remains that he has not led a single lap of a race since the German Grand Prix in July.

Indeed, if he does end up winning this championship, it really would be a remarkable achievement against the odds.

Also, Vettel really should not be conceding a 13-point advantage in the last race if the whole team gets its basics right in terms of set-up and pit stops.

Quite often, though, something special happens in Formula One.

In 2010, Alonso was the form driver heading into a season finale in Abu Dhabi but his inability to find a way past Russian Vitaly Petrov handed Vettel his first world title.

Somehow, Alonso needs something unexpected to happen again, except this time in his favour. The safe money, however, is still on the Vettel hat-trick.


A full review on F1 2012 will feature on TheIntrepidReporter blog, following my trip to Prague next week. Good luck, Herr Vettel and Señor Alonso.
  
CALENDAR

Date	TV		Pole position	Fastest lap	Winner
18 March	Sky	Australian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Button	Button
25 March	Sky	Malaysian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Raikkonen	Alonso
15 April	BBC	Chinese Grand Prix	Rosberg	Kobayashi	Rosberg
22 April	Sky	Bahrain Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Vettel
13 May	BBC	Spanish Grand Prix	Maldonado	Grosjean	Maldonado
27 May	BBC	Monaco Grand Prix	Webber	Perez	Webber
10 June	Sky	Canadian Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Hamilton
24 June	BBC	European Grand Prix	Vettel	Rosberg	Alonso
8 July	BBC	British Grand Prix	Alonso	Raikkonen	Webber
22 July	Sky	German Grand Prix	Alonso	Schumacher	Alonso
29 July	Sky	Hungarian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Vettel	Hamilton
2 September	BBC	Belgian Grand Prix	Button	Senna	Button
9 September	Sky	Italian Grand Prix	Hamilton	Rosberg	Hamilton
23 September	BBC	Singapore Grand Prix	Hamilton	Hülkenberg	Vettel
7 October	Sky	Japanese Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Vettel
14 October	BBC	Korean Grand Prix	Webber	Webber	Vettel
28 October	Sky	Indian Grand Prix	Vettel	Button	Vettel
4 November	BBC	Abu Dhabi Grand Prix	Hamilton	Vettel	Raikkonen
18 November	Sky	United States Grand Prix	Vettel	Vettel	Hamilton
25 November	BBC	Brazilian Grand Prix

STANDINGS
Drivers' Championship

P	Driver	Team	Points
01	Sebastian Vettel (Ger)	Red Bull-Renault	273 (5 wins)
02	Fernando Alonso (Spa)	Ferrari	260 (3 wins)
03	Kimi Raikkonen (Fin)	Lotus-Renault	206 (1 win)
04	Lewis Hamilton (Gbr)	McLaren-Mercedes	190 (4 wins)
05	Mark Webber (Aus)	Red Bull-Renault	167 (3 wins)
06	Jenson Button (Gbr)	McLaren-Mercedes	163 (2 wins)
07	Felipe Massa (Brz)	Ferrari	107
08	Romain Grosjean (Fra)	Lotus-Renault	96
09	Nico Rosberg (Ger)	Mercedes GP	93
10	Sergio Perez (Mex)	Sauber-Ferrari	66
11	Kamui Kobayashi (Jpn)	Sauber-Ferrari	58
12	Nico Hulkenberg (Ger)	Force India-Mercedes	53
13	Paul di Resta (Gbr)	Force India-Mercedes	46
14	Pastor Maldonado (Ven)	Williams-Renault	45 (1 win)
15	Michael Schumacher (Ger)	Mercedes GP	43
16	Bruno Senna (Brz)	Williams-Renault	31
17	Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra)	Toro Rosso-Ferrari	12
18	Daniel Ricciardo (Aus)	Toro Rosso-Ferrari	10
19	Timo Glock (Ger)	Marussia-Cosworth	0
20	Heikki Kovalainen (Fin)	Caterham-Renault	0
21	Vitaly Petrov (Rus)	Caterham-Renault	0
22	Jerome d'Ambrosio (Bel)	Lotus-Renault	0
23	Charles Pic (Fra)	Marussia-Cosworth	0
24	Narain Karthikeyan (Ind)	HRT-Cosworth	0
25	Pedro de la Rosa (Spa)	HRT-Cosworth	0

Constructors' Championship: 
Champions - Red Bull-Renault 

P	Team	Points
01	Red Bull-Renault	440 (7 wins)
02	Ferrari	367 (3 wins)
03	McLaren-Mercedes	353 (5 wins)
04	Lotus-Renault	302 (1 win)
05	Mercedes GP	136 (1 win)
06	Sauber-Ferrari	124
07	Force India-Mercedes	99
08	Williams-Renault	76 (1 win)
09	Toro Rosso-Ferrari	22
10	Marussia-Cosworth	0
11	Caterham-Renault	0
12	HRT-Cosworth	0

The Season 2012/13: Di Matteo wins di sack race

CHELSEA were thrown into disarray again this morning as Russian billionaire owner Roman Abramovich axed manager Roberto di Matteo less than four months into the new season.

Di Matteo was originally appointed on a temporary basis in March following the sacking of Portuguese boss Andre Villas-Boas - but the Italian then promptly won a glorious FA Cup and Champions League double to secure a two-year contract.

In the meantime, though, league form last season was patchy, and the Blues slipped to their lowest finish in 10 years.

This season has also been a bit of a mixed bag, with a brilliant start - 22 points out of the first 24 - blighted by the Blues taking just two points from their last 12.

On Saturday, di Matteo's men lost away to his former club West Bromwich Albion with a lacklustre performance.

It meant that Chelsea - who were four points clear at the top of the Premier League after the first eight games - are now four points adrift of leaders Manchester City.

However, the tipping point appears to have come in the competition which was so rewarding for di Matteo in May.

For, after away defeats to Shakhtar Donetsk and Juventus last night, Chelsea seem likely to become the first defending champions in the Champions League era to go out in the group stages.

At last, it appears the Roman emperor at Stamford Bridge has got enough self-justification to give a thumbs down verdict.

After all, Abramovich never really wanted di Matteo in the top job and only a repeat of last season's Cup form and improvement in the league would have saved him.

Indeed, in my preview post for the season, I noted that the delay of three-and-a-half weeks which it took for the Chelsea hierarchy to appoint di Matteo "spoke volumes".

Abramovich was left in a difficult position and felt obliged to give di Matteo the job after his successes at Wembley and in Munich. But, even then, he still did not really want to.

And so, while the Russian's latest reshuffle has been rightly condemned as a harsh verdict on di Matteo, it actually comes as no surprise.

Remarkably, di Matteo may have only lasted 262 days at Stamford Bridge - but that is still longer than Villas-Boas (256), Avram Grant (247), Luis Felipe Scolari (223) or temp Guus Hiddink (104).

Indeed, under Abramovich, only with Jose Mourinho (2004-2007) and Carlo Ancelotti (2009-2011) has there even been a modicum of stability.

So, where now for the Blues? Well, ideally, Abramovich would like to persuade former Barcelona boss Pep Guardiola into the hotseat.

However, if Guardiola is a man of his word and takes a full season out following his exertions at the Nou Camp, Abramovich would be forced to look elsewhere for yet another short-term fix.

The favourite, for now, appears to be former Liverpool coach Rafa Benitez, who has been out of work since being sacked by Inter Milan in December 2010.

That could be a prudent move if Benitez is able to help 28-year-old Fernando Torres rediscover his best form, having previously linked up with him effectively at Anfield.

Torres, who was signed in January 2011 by Ancelotti, has only ever shown glimpses of his best since his £50m move from the Reds. Overall, the Spaniard has been a costly mistake.

Nevertheless, in the world of Abramovich where money is no object, a £50m flop or the pay-out of yet another manager's contract, is very much small beer.

And even delivering the holy grail of the Champions League is still sometimes not enough to save your job.

Police farce

THE farcical attempt to politicise the police fell flat on its face yesterday after the average turnout in the first Police and Crime Commissioner elections was revealed to be under 15%.

None of the 41 constabularies in England and Wales saw more than 20% of the electorate attend to the polls, an historically low outcome which has prompted the Electoral Commission to launch an investigation.

Perhaps the most abiding memory of this ludicrous episode in British political history will be the sight of a ballot box in Gloucestershire being tipped upside down - only for it to be completely empty.

Meanwhile, the highest turnout came in Humberside where the most high-profile candidate - former Deputy Prime Minister, Lord Prescott - was standing.

It all ended disastrously for the peer, however, and his political career was effectively ended after he was beaten by his Conservative opponent Matthew Grove.

Mr Grove acknowledged that the Police Commissioners elections had failed to capture the attention of the public at large but vowed to be a "visible, active, loud voice on behalf of the community".

And yet, in spite of almost total indifference across the country, Home Secretary Theresa May and Prime Minister David Cameron somehow defended the legitimacy of the mandate of the winning candidates.

At least, those - like myself - who do not believe the police should be politicised will be pleased to see so many independent winners.

However, even this has been spoiled by the news that the triumphant 'independents' in Hampshire and North Wales have close links to the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats parties respectively.

Undoubtedly, the most ridiculous element of this all has been the cost of holding the election, which has been estimated to be around £100m.

It is not a figure which is well juxtaposed with the cuts the frontline policing, especially considering just how little information was available about the election.

An additional factor was that the motivation to go out and vote on a cold, grey November day could hardly be described as overwhelming.

Indeed, frankly, the mood of many of the election's detractors was summed up by the spoilt ballot papers, one of which read: "The answer is never 'more politicians'."

And yet, these new - and barely recognised - Police Commissioners will take up their roles next week on a career politician's salary of £65000 per annum minimum. 

Now, the defenders of the appointments have argued that the people in these positions will make the police more accountable to the public than ever before. 

However, the Police Authorities - which the commissioners have replaced - were not as unaccountable as they have been made out. 

For a start, approximately half of the members were usually local councillors who were subject, of course, to a democratic mandate from their own wards - a mandate which would usually be higher than the turnout which transpired on Thursday. 

Meanwhile, in order to prevent the committees from being too political, the other half of the panel was usually made up of non-politicians who lived in the area, at least one of whom was a local magistrate. 

The most powerful member was the Chair of the Authority - however, again, this was usually a non-politician and not chosen on a party political basis, as proven by Ann Barnes. 

Ms Barnes was the former chair of Kent Police Authority, and won standing as an independent. Sadly, the vast majority of the new commissioners do represent a particular political standpoint. 

Worse still, the feeling now persists that, once this commissioner role gets established as the norm, then it will be difficult to remove - and all this, in spite of their complete lack of legitimacy. 

Basically, this whole thing has ended up just being yet another policy which the government of the day has foisted, with impunity, upon the general public. 

To some, this may have been direct democracy in action. But, without an engaged electorate, it is barely democracy at all - and could be more accurately described as a complete waste of time. Sigh...
 

At least, meanwhile, there were some 'proper' parliamentary elections - but, here again, it was the same sorry story for the coalition government.

Labour comfortably held Cardiff South and Penarth and Manchester Central with increased majorities, and gained Corby from the Conservatives.

Candidate Andy Sawford pulled off a notable swing of 12% as Labour won a seat directly from the Tories in a by-election for the first time in 15 years.

And yet, despite the historical significance, the actual result was not a surprise and was largely in line with some polling done by Lord Ashcroft and Populus in the constituency.

Clearly, the nature of Louise Mensch's departure - to move to New York City for family reasons after just two years as an MP - had a further drag on the Conservative vote.

But, while to the Tories the result is just a case of the mid-term blues, from the perspective of Labour leader Ed Miliband, Mr Sawford's victory represents real hope for the chances of his party winning back power in the next general election in 2015.

There is, of course, no such hope for the Lib Dems, whose place in the coalition has caused them by-election embarrassment before.

Corby was another nightmare for leader Nick Clegg as candidate Jill Hope suffered another lost deposit for the party, finishing well behind Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party in third.

With UKIP also about level-pegging with the Lib Dems in the police elections, Mr Farage has some justification in referring to his party as the "third force in British politics".

Importantly, we are now just closer to the next general election than the last one, and so these are worrying times for the Lib Dems whose vulnerable position could leave them with just a rump of MPs in 2015.

Elsewhere, as mentioned previously, Labour held the other two urban seats in Cardiff and Manchester without a problem.

But, considering the by-elections were caused by the sitting Labour MPs resigning to enter - and win - in the Police elections, it seemed appropriate that turnout in those two elections was also pitiful.

In Cardiff South and Penarth, only just slightly more than a quarter of the electorate bothered to vote.

However, that was nothing as compared to Manchester Central where only 18.2% turned up. It was the lowest turnout in a parliamentary by-election since the Second World War.

Apathy reigns - but, considering the politicians we do actually have, is it really any surprise?


RESULTS

BY ELECTIONS

CARDIFF SOUTH and PENARTH	LAB hold
Stephen Doughty Labour	9,193	47.3%	(+8.4%)
Craig Williams Conservative	3,859	19.9%	(-8.4%)
Bablin Molik Lib Dems	2,103	10.8%	(-11.5%)
Luke Nicholas Plaid Cymru	1,854	9.5%	(+5.3%)
Simon Zeigler UKIP	1,179	6.1%	(+3.5%)
Others	1,248	6.4%

Total votes: 19,436 Turnout: 25.3% Majority: 5,334

CORBY	LAB GAIN	from Con
Andy Sawford Labour	17,267	48.4%	(+9.8%)
Christine Emmett Conservative	9,476	26.6%	(-15.6%)
Margot Parker UKIP	5,108	14.3%
Jill Hope Lib Dems	1,770	4.9%	(-9.5%)
Others	2,044	5.8%

Total votes: 35,665 Turnout: 44.8% Majority: 7,791

MANCHESTER CENTRAL	LAB hold
Lucy Powell Labour	11,507	69.1%	(+16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom Lib Dems	1,571	9.4%	(-17.2%)
Matthew Septhon Conservative	754	4.5%	(-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy UKIP	749	4.5%	(-3.0%)
Others	2,067	12.5%

Total votes: 16,648 Turnout: 18.2% Majority: 9,936

POLICE COMMISSIONER  ELECTIONS	Commissioners	% of total	% of 1st Pref
LABOUR	13	32%	32%
CONSERVATIVE	16	39%	28%
INDEPENDENTS	12	29%	23%
UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY	0	0%	7%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS	0	0%	7%

England			Turnout
AVON and SOMERSET	Sue Mountstevens	IND	TBC
BEDFORDSHIRE	Oliver Martins	LAB	17.7%
CAMBRIDGESHIRE	Sir Graham Bright	CON	14.7%
CHESHIRE	John Dwyer	CON	13.7%
CLEVELAND	Barry Coppinger	LAB	14.7%
CUMBRIA	Richard Rhodes	CON	15.6%
DERBYSHIRE	Alan Charles	LAB	14.3%
DEVON and CORNWALL	Tony Hogg	CON	15.1%
DORSET	Martyn Underhill	IND	16.3%
DURHAM	Ron Hogg	LAB	14.4%
ESSEX	Nicholas Alston	CON	12.8%
GLOUCESTERSHIRE	Martin Surl	IND	15.9%
GREATER MANCHESTER	Tony Lloyd	LAB	13.5%
HAMPSHIRE	Simon Hayes	IND	14.5%
HERTFORDSHIRE	David Lloyd	CON	14.1%
HUMBERSIDE	Matthew Grove	CON	19.1%
KENT	Ann Barnes	IND	15.9%
LANCASHIRE	Clive Grunshaw	LAB	15.0%
LEICESTERSHIRE	Clive Loader	CON	15.9%
LINCOLNSHIRE	Alan Hardwick	IND	15.2%
MERSEYSIDE	Jane Kennedy	LAB	12.4%
NORFOLK	Stephen Bett	IND	14.5%
NORTH YORKSHIRE	Julia Mulligan	CON	13.2%
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE	Adam Simmonds	CON	19.5%
NORTHUMBRIA	Vera Baird	LAB	16.4%
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE	Paddy Tipping	LAB	16.4%
SOUTH YORKSHIRE	Shaun Wright	LAB	14.5%
STAFFORDSHIRE	Matthew Ellis	CON	11.6%
SUFFOLK	Tim Passmore	CON	15.4%
SURREY	Kevin Hurley	IND	15.3%
SUSSEX	Katy Bourne	CON	15.3%
THAMES VALLEY	Anthony Stansfeld	CON	12.8%
WARWICKSHIRE	Ron Ball	IND	15.2%
WEST MERCIA	Bill Longmore	IND	14.5%
WEST MIDLANDS	Bob Jones	LAB	11.9%
WEST YORKSHIRE	Mark Burns-Williamson	LAB	13.3%
WILTSHIRE	Angus Macpherson	CON	15.8%
Wales
DYFED-POWYS	Christopher Salmon	CON	16.3%
GWENT	Ian Johnston	IND	13.9%
NORTH WALES	Winston Roddick	IND	14.8%
SOUTH WALES	Alun Michael	LAB	14.6%

Captain Cook leads new-look England into baptism of fire

ALASTAIR COOK faces a stern test in his first series as permanent Test captain today as England take on India in Ahmedabad.

England have not won a Test series in India since 1984-85 but the new skipper has more than just history against him heading into the contest.

The team news in the build-up has been dominated by injuries to key bowlers with Steve Finn confirmed to be out of the first Test with a thigh strain.

At least, Stuart Broad - who has been sustained a bruised heel - will play, and thus reprise his attacking partnership with the tourists' most experienced bowler, James Anderson.

However, it will be the form of spinners Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar which will be more vital on the slow, turning pitches of India.

It was unclear whether Cook departs from the tactic of his predecessor Andrew Strauss who rarely picked two spinners in the same match - and it would have been refreshing to see the new captain willing to be more flexible in this regard.

Cook also had a choice to make in his batting line-up after the squad was freshened up with the introduction of the likes of Somerset's Nick Compton and Joe Root of Yorkshire into the squad.

For the two newbies, the warm-ups against Mumbai A and Haryana would prove crucial - and it was Compton, grandson of Denis, who would come out on top with three half-centuries.

And so, Compton now has the responsibility of opening the batting with Cook, with the rest of the top-six line-up - Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Samit Patel - eager to do better in the subcontinent than earlier in the year.

Yes, Pietersen's name appears in that list after his apparent 're-integration' into the England set-up following a wretched summer.

But the flamboyant KP had had to accept the attention being focused elsewhere in various series previews. Instead, rather unsurprisingly, new skipper Cook has been the subject of most of the pundits' commentaries.

Widely accepted as - and indeed groomed to be - Strauss' successor, it should be remembered that Cook has captained England before.

The Essex batsman previously led the national team in two Tests in Bangladesh in 2010, winning both, and he has also impressed as leader of the One-Day side, matching the England record of 10 wins in a row this summer.

More than that - as this interview with former coach John Abrahams shows, Cook was identified as captain material from as early as his appearances for the England Under-19 team.

But, despite all this being in Cook's favour, England fans would do well not to be a hostage to fortune, and we must wait to see just what sort of captain he is in the pressure-cooker Test arena.

There have been suggestions that the 27-year-old should look to ape the most recent Australian appointee Michael Clarke whose aggressive tactics - for example, declaring behind and winning - have seen an upturn in his side's fortunes since their awful Ashes defeat.

Ultimately, though, captain Cook will have to navigate his own path in this difficult, albeit hugely rewarding assignment.

Actually, it could almost be said that Cook has been given a free pass for these next few matches. And, certainly, he will be better judged by the back-to-back home and away series against New Zealand in early 2013, which England will be expected to win.

Nevertheless, that should not mean that this series is a complete write-off: England fans will definitely want to see at least some signs of encouragement after a tough 2012, especially ahead of the defence of the Ashes next year.

ENGLAND TOUR OF INDIA 2012-13

30 Oct-1 Nov	India A 369 & 124-4 drew with ENGLAND 426	Mumbai
3-5 Nov	ENGLAND 345-9d & 149-2 drew with Mumbai A 286	Mumbai
8-11 Nov	ENGLAND 521 & 254-6d drew with Haryana 334 & 133-6	Ahmedabad
15-19 Nov	First Test match v INDIA	Ahmedabad
23-27 Nov	Second Test match v INDIA	Mumbai
5-9 Dec	Third Test match v INDIA	Kolkata
13-17 Dec	Fourth Test match v INDIA	Nagpur
20 Dec	First T20 v INDIA	Pune
22 Dec	Second T20 v INDIA	Mumbai
11 Jan	First ODI v INDIA	Rajkot
15 Jan	Second ODI v INDIA	Kochi
19 Jan	Third ODI v INDIA	Ranchi
23 Jan	Fourth ODI v INDIA	Mohali
27 Jan	Fifth ODI v INDIA	Dharamshala

ENGLAND IN INDIA SINCE 1984-85

1984-85	INDIA 1-2 ENGLAND (from 5 Tests)	W
1992-93	INDIA 3-0 ENGLAND (from 3 Tests)	L
2001-02	INDIA 1-0 ENGLAND (from 3 Tests)	L
2005-06	INDIA 1-1 ENGLAND (from 3 Tests)	D
2008-09	INDIA 1-0 ENGLAND (from 2 Tests)	L

Paedogeddon gets out of hand

BUMBLING BBC boss George Entwistle apologised today after a Newsnight report wrongly implicated a Conservative peer in the ongoing child sex abuse scandal.

The report, which was broadcast on Friday 2 November, featured an interview with victim Steve Messham who identified former Tory treasurer Lord McAlpine as his alleged abuser.

It has since emerged, however, that Lord McAlpine was a victim himself - of mistaken identity, after Mr Messham realised his error having been shown a different photograph of the peer.

Mr Messham has apologised to Lord McAlpine but the peer is understandably more angry with the BBC for letting the botched report go ahead.

Lord McAlpine's solicitor Andrew Reid has confirmed the peer will take legal action, and it is almost certain that he will win his case.

For, while he was not actually named in the report, he does not have to be in order to pursue a successful writ for defamation.

All that Lord McAlpine will need to prove is that he could reasonably be expected to be identified by the report, which has happened, and that it has harmed his reputation.

It is another blow for former Newsnight editor Mr Entwistle who has only been in the top job at the BBC for 54 days. Already he looks way out his depth, and he has been constantly one step behind throughout this saga.

Astonishingly, Mr Entwistle has said that he was only aware of the episode of Newsnight after it had been broadcast.

And that really is quite unbelievable following the recent controversies which have dogged the Corporation's flagship news review show.

Newsnight has been on the ropes for weeks now and it is already under investigation for its reporting, or lack of reporting, of abuse by former presenter Jimmy Savile.

On that occasion, the BBC effectively did the opposite to what has happened now to Lord McAlpine, dropping a report last year into Savile, only for ITV's Exposure documentary to pick up the story from freelance journalist Mark Williams-Thomas last month.

Yes, some time ago, there was actually some legitimate journalism going on. How and why Savile had got away with what he had done for years was still a story worth telling, particularly from the victim's perspective, despite the perpetrator's death last year.

Quite why Newsnight editor Peter Rippon felt it necessary to drop the report due to an apparent clash with a planned Christmas tribute to Savile remains unclear. It was, in my view, a truly proper piece of journalism, and it should have been screened.

However, the media has now largely moved from Savile, and it is now gorging itself in its own inimitable, sensationalist style, making it difficult to decipher the hard facts from the hearsay.

This was no less in evidence than in the Thursday edition of ITV's daytime television show This Morning, on which Prime Minister David Cameron appeared.

Far from the expected cosy chat on the sofa, presenter Philip Schofield confronted Mr Cameron with a list of alleged paedophiles which he had found on the internet.

Schofield has since apologised for his utterly reprehensible approach but the damage to his credibility has already been done and his interview with the PM is just the latest example in how this story has now gone too far.

Of course, sections of the media getting itself in a tizz over paedophilia is nothing new - but engaging in sensationalism simply does not help the situation.

You only have to recall when the late and unlamented News of the World ran its nefarious campaign against paedophiles after the rape and murder of eight-year-old Sarah Payne.

In fairness to the News of the World, many praised its campaign for a change in the law which has proved to be very popular among the population at large.

However, the newspaper articles also, infamously, caused a mob from a Welsh estate to daub graffiti on the front door of the house of... a paediatrician, in another case of mistaken identity.

Never one to miss a trick, satirist Chris Morris brought back his mock investigation show Brass Eye which took the approach of the News of the World and applied it to broadcasters.

And now, just over a decade down the line, life is once again imitating art. You would think the likes of BBC and ITV would really be more careful but that is perhaps expecting too much.

*Update: George Entwistle has resigned as Director General of the BBC.

US election results: Four more years for President Obama

RESULTS

Barack Obama Democrat	332	270 to win	206	Mitt Romney Republican
VERMONT	3		11	INDIANA
DELAWARE	3		8	KENTUCKY
ILLINOIS	20		5	WEST VIRGINIA
MAINE	4		9	SOUTH CAROLINA
MARYLAND	10		7	OKLAHOMA
MASSACHUSETTS	11		9	ALABAMA
RHODE ISLAND	4		16	GEORGIA
DISTRICT of COLUMBIA	3		11	TENNESSEE
CONNECTICUT	7		6	ARKANSAS
NEW JERSEY	14		6	MISSISSIPPI
NEW YORK	29		6	KANSAS
MICHIGAN	16		8	LOUISIANA
PENNSYLVANIA	20		3	NORTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN	10		3	SOUTH DAKOTA
NEW HAMPSHIRE	4		3	WYOMING
MINNESOTA	10		38	TEXAS
NEW MEXICO	5		5	NEBRASKA
WASHINGTON	12		3	MONTANA
CALIFORNIA	55		6	UTAH
HAWAII	4		11	ARIZONA
OREGON	7		10	MISSOURI
IOWA	6		4	IDAHO
OHIO	18		15	NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA	13		3	ALASKA
FLORIDA	29
COLORADO	9
NEVADA	6
- House of Representatives	193		233	- House of Representatives
- Senators	53		45	- Senators
- Popular vote	50.4%		48.1%	- Popular vote

BARACK OBAMA reached out across the political divide today following his re-election as President of the United States last night.

Mr Obama beat Republican challenger Mitt Romney, narrowly in the popular vote but convincingly in the all-important Electoral College as the election met with most pollsters expectations.

The big moment happened at 4.25am GMT this morning as American networks called the election in favour of the incumbent, and here the BBC and Sky followed suit.

Trusty bellwether Ohio had once again proved to be the tipping point, taking Mr Obama past the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.

With ballots still being counted and verified in Florida, it has been confirmed that Mr Obama currently has 303 Electoral College votes, 97 more than his opponent Mr Romney.

And the truth is that Mr Romney has barely changed the electoral map from four years ago, only managing to force Indiana and North Carolina to change hands.

Otherwise - in the eight states identified in my preview post as the battlegrounds - Mr Obama did superbly, taking seven of them, with Florida potentially making it a clean sweep.

But, in the other nationwide elections, matters did not go quite so well for the Democrats.

Mr Obama's party still has a majority in the Senate with 53 seats out of 100. However, control of the House of Representatives remains with the Republicans - and that means Mr Obama must work more effectively with his opponents than he did at times in his first term.

The 44th President also has pressing foreign policy matters to deal with. Most prominent of them is the ongoing nuclear developments in Iran, and the Israeli reaction to it, and it can be expected that there will be a round of diplomacy between the countries soon.

Elsewhere, Mr Obama will need to meet his promise to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan by 2014. And, thirdly, liberals and anti-war campaigners can only hope for movement on the closure of Guantanamo Bay and a reduction in the number of drone attacks on Pakistan.

Clearly, there is much work still left to be done and, even to many of his supporters, Mr Obama's first term in office was not a great success.

Ultimately, though, the electorate has still placed its trust in him over Mr Romney - and that means Republican supporters like Donald Trump, who took to Twitter to gnash their teeth about the future of the USA, really need to take a closer look at their own party.

It is easy now to forget, after weeks and weeks of this sometimes bitter campaign, but Mr Romney was actually seen by Republicans as a moderate candidate. Indeed, he was regarded as being too moderate during the primary season in which he became the GOP choice.

Only when Mr Romney's victory in that race became inevitable did the likes of the Tea Party wing get behind him, and it is undoubtedly the case that the Republican party has moved politically to the right.

Strangely, in making this shift, the Republicans do not seem to realise that it is not doing them any good.

Including the George W Bush victory in 2000, the GOP has lost the popular vote in five of the last six elections, and it is not difficult to see some of the reasons why.

Republican supporters are primarily - though, of course, not exclusively - elderly, white males... whereas the demographics of the USA are changing so that an increasing number of voters are young, black or Hispanic, and, indeed, female.

So, never mind the fact that Mr Obama must now reach across a bitterly divide nation. If the Republican party cannot begin to appeal to a much broader base of support, it will continue to struggle to win elections for President.

The American people know a phoney when they see one. Of course, the election and subsequent re-election of Mr Bush jnr may have suggested otherwise, but its people appear somewhat wiser now.

Mr Romney spent much of the campaign focusing on the poor state of the economy, making dire warnings of what would happen if the country was subjected to another four years of Mr Obama.

All the while, he and his team seemed oblivious to a jobs situation which was actually gradually improving.

Moreover, a big reason why Mr Romney lost key swing states in the mid-West because, in his own incoherent economic strategy, he opposed Mr Obama's vital bail-out of the auto industry.

Indeed, even the Economist - hardly a left-leaning publication - ultimately endorsed Mr Obama for re-election, concluding that Mr Romney's pitch for President was not convincing because it simply did not add up.

Still, though, many Republicans seem to be placing the lion's share of the blame for the defeat on the unfortunate timing of Hurricane Sandy and the chance it offered Mr Obama to look presidential in the last few days of the campaign.

The Republicans should face the truth, and accept that any effect that Sandy could have had on the electoral race would have been negligible.

For, apart from some variation after Mr Obama's poor display in the first debate on 3 October, the polls have been telling us pretty much the same thing for weeks now.

The expectation was that Mr Obama would hold a small lead in the popular vote but that the incumbent was doing better in the majority of battleground states.

And, yet, still the Republicans collectively bury their heads in the sand, and wail and gnash their teeth at even the thought of four more years of Mr Obama.

Now, after the result proved the pollsters to be accurate, there will never be four years of Mr Romney in the White House.

And, in concluding, the defeat for the former Massachusetts governor reminded me of a quote attributed to the 16th President, Abraham Lincoln.

Lincoln said: "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time. But you cannot fool all of the people, all of the time."

Of course, Mr Romney and the Republicans have tried hard over the last few weeks to disprove Mr Lincoln. In the end, though, the maxim held true.


CLOCKWATCH All times UTC [GMT]
Key (expected results): Democrat Republican Toss-up

12am Polls close in Georgia (16) Indiana (11) Kentucky (8) South Carolina (9) Vermont (3) Virginia (13)
12.30am Polls close in North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) West Virginia (5)
1am Polls close in Alabama (9) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) District of Columbia (3) Florida (29) Illinois (20) Maine (4) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) Mississippi (6) Missouri (10) New Hampshire (4) Oklahoma (7) New Jersey (14) Pennsylvania (20) Rhode Island (4) Tennessee (11)
1.30am Polls close in Arkansas (6)
2am Polls close in Arizona (11) Colorado (9) Kansas (6) Louisiana (8) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) Nebraska (5) New Mexico (5) New York (29) South Dakota (3) Texas (38) Wisconsin (10) Wyoming (3)
3am Polls closed in Iowa (6) Montana (3) Nevada (6) North Dakota (3) Utah (6)
After 4am Polls closed in Alaska (3) (5am) California (55) Hawaii (4) Idaho (4) Oregon (7) Washington (12)

US election goes down to the wire

PRESIDENT Barack Obama would have hoped it was all over by now - but, in fact, he and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck heading into election day.

Incumbent Mr Obama held a comfortable lead going into the autumn after a bounce in the polls following the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

But a lacklustre display in the first debate in Denver, Colorado on 3 October saw Mr Romney swing the political pedestal back in his favour.

Mr Obama wrestled back some of the initiative in the other two debates on 16 and 22 October, with the latter in particular exposing Mr Romney's lack of experience in dealing with foreign policy.

However, neither of those debates in New York or Florida were game-changers and polling has remained tight all the way through the last four weeks.

Indeed, according to New York Times polling site fivethirtyeight.com, Mr Obama is set to win the national popular vote by just 50.8% to 48.3%, and there is no euphoric feeling of hope in his campaign as in 2008.

By contrast, though, that same site estimates Mr Obama's chance of winning the Electoral College at more than 90%. So, why the big difference?

Well, as explained previously on this blog, one of the fundamental weaknesses of the Electoral College system is that, over time, it has created safe-blue and safe-red states.

Just as here in the UK, where northern cities will generally vote for Labour and leafy southern suburbs will almost always vote for the Conservatives, most of the USA has already decided where its Electoral College votes are going.

Furthermore, the fact that states are won outright rather than proportionally even means that you can lose the popular vote and still win the presidency - doesn't it, George?

And so, according to the CNN Electoral Map, it seems that Mr Obama can already rely on a total of 237 Electoral College votes.

These will come from: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Washington (12), and the District of Columbia (3).

With 270 votes needed to win, Mr Obama is not far off just counting the states which he knows he has effectively already won - hence his strong showing in the fivethirtyeight forecast.

Nevertheless, the CNN map also shows Mr Romney can guarantee 206 Electoral College votes at this stage as he is expected to carry 24 states without much of a challenge.

These are: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).

Effectively, this reduces the election to a battleground of eight so-called 'purple' states whose 95 votes will decide the result.

These swing states are: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).

And here is an overview of these decisive states:

COLORADO (9)
Colorado is a south-western state which followed the lead of New Mexico by turning blue for Mr Obama having elected Bush in 2004. But, while New Mexico is now considered to be in the Obama column, Colorado remains very much in the toss-up category, although latest polling suggests it is likely to favour Mr Obama again despite his poor first debate performance in Denver. Polls close in Colorado at 2am GMT. Prediction: Obama.

FLORIDA (29)
The Sunshine State is a notorious battleground state, infamous for its role in deciding the 2000 election when the US Supreme Court ruled George W Bush had won the state from Al Gore by just 538 votes. The state historically leans slightly to the Republicans and Romney will hope to land an early blow by winning on the Atlantic coast. By contrast, if Florida is too close to call, challenger Mr Romney could be in for a long night. Polls in Florida will close at 1am GMT. Prediction: Romney.

IOWA (6)
Iowa was where it all started for Mr Romney back in January when he launched his campaign for the Republican candidacy. Back then, Mr Romney got a shock as the state at first declared him the winner, before a recount gave the actual victory to rival Rick Santorum. Certainly, Mr Romney will be hoping to avoid a repeat - but this mid-West outpost is a state in which Mr Obama remains favourite. The polls in Iowa close at 3am GMT. Prediction: Obama.

NEVADA (6)
It could almost be all over by the time that the polls close in Nevada at 3am GMT - but, if the contest is still alive, Mr Romney will desperately need to win if Mr Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin. Latest indications suggest again it will be President Obama who adds these six points to his tally. Prediction: Obama.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)
New Hampshire represents a genuine chance for Mr Romney to carve a small slice of red in the Democratic-dominated north east. Mr Romney has a holiday home there and, unlike many of its neighbours, the Granite State has always had a more independent streak. Indeed, some polls have given the Republican challenger real hope. However, most of the recent indications still put these four points into Mr Obama's column - and when you are as close to the magic 270 mark as the incumbent is, even these four points will matter. Polls close in New Hampshire at 1am GMT. Prediction: Obama.

OHIO (18)
A genuine bellwether, Ohio has chosen the eventual presidential winner in every election since 1964, and no Republican has ever become President without winning the Buckeye State. That trend looks set to continue as, if Mr Romney loses in both Virginia and Ohio, his hopes will be just about dashed. Unfortunately, for the Republican challenger, Ohio is another state in which Mr Obama leads, a significance perhaps of the President having bailed out the auto industry on which Ohio is so heavily reliant. The polls close in Ohio at 12.30am GMT. Verdict: Obama.

VIRGINIA (13)
This is a state which should really be in the Romney column - and certainly it would have been the case years ago before it shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanised and politically moderate environment. But, despite the gradual change in demographics, Mr Romney's team will have still been disappointed to have seen Virginia change over the last few weeks from leaning towards their candidate to its current status whereby most polls make Mr Obama favourite for the 13 points. Virginia closes its polls at midnight GMT and an early defeat here would leave Mr Romney desperately needing victory in Ohio. Verdict: Obama.

WISCONSIN (10)
The Badger State remains only just about close enough to be considered a swing state with polls showing a consistent lead for President Obama over the last few weeks. The gap between Mr Obama and Mr Romney narrowed here when the latter announced Wisconsin representative Paul Ryan as his running mate in the early autumn. However, more recent surveys have put the incumbent as much as seven points clear, and Wisconsin can now be fully expected to turn from purple to blue shortly after its polls close at 2am GMT. Verdict: Obama.

Overall prediction: Barack Obama 303 - 235 Mitt Romney


So, there were have it, then: the forecast points towards a victory and a second term in office for Mr Obama.

Indeed, as fivethirtyeight.com blogger Nate Silver explained this week, such is the strength of Mr Obama's performance in the battleground states, Mr Romney will simply have to hope that the polls have been biased against him all along.

That seems unlikely, given their unrelenting consistency over the last few weeks, and it now seems too late for Mr Romney to turn the tide.

The race to the White House, then, is not as tight as the popular vote would have you believe.

Mr Obama has managed to clear the last couple of hurdles without being blown off course - the October employment figures, which actually showed another improvement, and the ferocious Hurricane Sandy.

And so, after a long and sometimes uncertain campaign, Mr Obama can finally begin to plan for four more years.

There is still yet time for him to leave a positive legacy across the pond.

The Season 2012/13: Man United lead the early charge

1 MANCHESTER UNITED (P10 W8 D0 L2 F26 A14 Pts 24)
First 10 League games: LWWWWLWWWW
League Cup: lost 4-5 aet v Chelsea (A) in fourth round
Europe: Currently top in Champions League group H [W3 D0 L0 F6 A2]
Top scorer: Robin van Persie (10)
Sack race: Sir Alex Ferguson (manager since November 1986) 50/1
Original prediction: 2nd
Manchester United have responded well to a rare opening day loss to Everton by winning nine of their next 10 league games and making serene progress in the Champions League. The Red Devils' victories include away triumphs at Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea, and a 2-1 home win over Arsenal which was much more comfortable than that sounds. Robin van Persie scored one of those goals against his old club and has settled down well in the north.

2 CHELSEA (P10 W7 D2 L1 F22 A10 Pts 23)
First 10 League games: WWWDWWWWLD
League Cup: QF v Leeds United (A) on 19 December
Europe: Currently second in Champions League group E [W1 D1 L1 F7 A4]
Top scorer: Juan Mata (7)
Sack race: Roberto di Matteo (since March 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 3rd
Pace-setters Chelsea won seven of their first eight league matches but have dropped off the top of the table after a dramatic home defeat to Manchester United and a draw at Swansea City. Two different players called Hernandez - Javier and Pablo - were responsible for denying the Blues the points. Captain John Terry was banned for four games by the Football Association after being found guilty of racially abusing Queens Park Rangers defender Anton Ferdinand last season. Now the Blues have made a similar complaint about referee Mark Clattenburg.

3 MANCHESTER CITY (P10 W6 D4 L0 F18 A9 Pts 22)
First 10 League games: WDWDDWWWWD
League Cup: lost 2-4 aet v Aston Villa (H) in third round
Europe: Currently bottom of Champions League group D [W0 D1 L2 F4 A7]
Top scorer: Edin Dzeko (6)
Sack race: Roberto Mancini (since December 2009) 12/1
Original prediction: Champions
Manchester City remain the only Premier League team unbeaten in league games this season but that statistic is not nearly as brilliant as it sounds. The 0-0 draw at West Ham United on Saturday was the defending champions' fourth in 10 games and, significantly, Roberto Mancini's men have eight fewer goals than their Manchester rivals. Another poor Champions League campaign has done little to lift the spirits at the Etihad Stadium, thought it would be too early to panic. For, while Manchester City have made an unspectacular start, they still remain just two points adrift.

4 EVERTON (P10 W4 D5 L1 F19 A13 Pts 17)
First 10 League games: WWLDWWDDDD
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Leeds United (A) in third round
Top scorer: Marouane Fellaini (5)
Sack race: David Moyes (since March 2002) 100/1
Original prediction: 8th
For once, Everton began the season on fire. A 1-0 home win over Manchester United on the opening weekend was followed up by a fine display in a 3-1 victory at Villa Park. Frustration at a surprise defeat at West Bromwich Albion was added to when Newcastle United somehow stole a point at Goodison Park - but successive victories, away at Swansea City and at home against Southampton, sent the Toffees second in the league heading into October. The last month has not gone so well for David Moyes' men with four successive score draws. But it is not all bad news - one of those four draws was their home Merseyside derby in which they were 2-0 down in 20 minutes.

5 WEST BROMWICH ALBION (P10 W5 D2 L3 F15 A11 Pts 17)
First 10 League games: WDWLWDWLLW
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Liverpool (H) in third round
Top scorer: Shane Long (5)
Sack race: Steve Clarke (since June 2012) 50/1
Original prediction: 18th
West Brom have made their best start to a top-flight season in decades thanks to excellent home form which has delivered all five of their victories so far this season. Everton, Liverpool, and the current bottom three - Reading, Queens Park Rangers and Southampton - have all perished at the Hawthorns and consequently the Baggies have made an unexpected charge up the table. However, Steve Clarke's men will have to improve their away form, which has registered just two points out of 12 so far, if the Baggies' challenge is to prove a long-term one.

6 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (P10 W5 D2 L3 F17 A14 Pts 17)
First 10 League games: LDDWWWWLWL
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Norwich City (A) in fourth round
Europe: Currently third in Europa League group J [W0 D3 L0 F2 A2]
Top scorer: Jermian Defoe (5)
Sack race: Andre Villas-Boas (since July 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 5th
Just when it looked as if the Spurs fans may be warming to the methods of fresh-faced boss Andre Villas-Boas, his team produce a woeful display in a home defeat to Wigan Athletic. A slow start, with just points out of the first nine, was becoming a hazy memory when Spurs strung four league wins in a row, including a first victory at Old Trafford since 1989. However, successive defeats at White Hart Lane to Chelsea and Wigan have put the pressure back on the Portuguese boss ahead of vital trips to Manchester City and Arsenal.

7 ARSENAL (P10 W4 D3 L3 F15 A8 Pts 15)
First 10 League games: DDWWDLWLWL
League Cup: QF v Bradford City (A) on 11 December
Europe: Currently second in Champions League group B [W2 D0 L1 F5 A4]
Top scorer: Theo Walcott (7)
Sack race: Arsene Wenger (since October 1996) 33/1
Original prediction: 4th
Arsenal made an encouraging enough to start to the season with victory at Anfield and a 6-1 thumping of Southampton lifting the Gunners to third early on. Better still, Arsene Wenger's men followed up those wins with a 1-1 draw away to champions Manchester City to remain unbeaten - but recent weeks have seen the wheels start to fall off with four defeats in their last eight games in all competitions. Chelsea prevailed 2-1 at the Emirates while away defeats to Norwich City and, most recently, Manchester United have seen the North Londoners fall well off the pace.

8 FULHAM (P10 W4 D3 L3 F21 A16 Pts 15)
First 10 League games: WLLWWLDWDD
League Cup: lost 0-1 v Sheffield Wednesday (A) in second round
Top scorer: Damien Duff, Mladen Petric, Dimitar Berbatov, Steve Sidwell (all 3)
Sack race: Martin Jol (since June 2011) 50/1
Original prediction: 16th
A late goal by Steve Sidwell on Saturday rescued a point for Fulham in a 2-2 draw at home to fellow top-half dwellers Everton. In doing so, Martin Jol's men went some way to maintaining their strong record at Craven Cottage where they have picked up 10 of their 15 points so far this season. Their record on the road is less to write home about, as usual, but - even then - Fulham's away games have featured plenty of goals. Jol's men have played out a 3-2 loss to Manchester United, a 2-2 draw at Southampton and incredible late drama in a 3-3 draw with Reading, meaning the west Londoners are, in fact, the third highest scorers in the league.

9 WEST HAM UNITED (P10 W4 D3 L3 F13 A11 Pts 15)
First 10 League games: WLWDDWLWLD
League Cup: lost 1-4 v Wigan Athletic (H) in third round
Top scorer: Kevin Nolan (4)
Sack race: Sam Allardyce (since June 2011) 40/1
Original prediction: 14th
The inconsistent Hammers have yet to win two league matches on the spin - but four victories from their opening 10 games is a more than acceptable record for a newly promoted side. Sam Allardyce's men got off to the perfect start by beating Aston Villa 1-0 at home on the opening day and they soon followed that up with a fine 3-0 home win over Fulham in which Liverpool loanee Andy Carroll starred. If anything, though, the Hammers' most impressive result came on Saturday in a 0-0 draw against Manchester City. Many more results like that and the east Londoners will have no problems securing their top flight place well in advance of May.

10 NEWCASTLE UNITED (P10 W3 D5 L2 F12 A14 Pts 14)
First 10 League games: WLDDWDLDWD
League Cup: lost 1-2 v Manchester United (A) in third round
Europe: Currently top of Europa League group D [W2 D1 L0 F4 A0]
Top scorer: Demba Ba (7)
Sack race: Alan Pardew (since December 2010) 100/1
Original prediction: 6th
There has been no repeat of last season when Newcastle United went unbeaten until November but that was always unlikely given a less kindly fixture draw this time around. Still, the Magpies opened with a home win over Tottenham Hotspur and, thanks to the goals of Demba Ba and momentary flashes of genius by Hatem Ben Arfa, Alan Pardew's men have lost only to Manchester United and Chelsea so far. There have been too many draws on the road, though - indeed, the Tynesiders have yet to taste victory in eight away games in all competitions in learning to balance their domestic and European commitments.

11 SWANSEA CITY (P10 W3 D3 L4 F15 A14 Pts 12)
First 10 League games: WWDLLLDWLD
League Cup: QF v Middlesbrough (H) on 12 December
Top scorer: Miguel 'Michu' Perez Cuesta (7)
Sack race: Michael Laudrup (since June 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 17th
Swansea City started life under Michael Laudrup brilliantly, faded, and have now recovered for a stable mid-table position. The Swans hit eight goals in their opening two games, easily beating Queens Park Rangers and West Ham United before a 2-2 draw at home to Sunderland confirmed a solid start. But the Welsh club then suffered three successive defeats without scoring and it looked like that might become four when Reading took a 2-0 lead at the Liberty Stadium. Top scorer Michu inspired a comeback to 2-2 - and, ever since, the Swans have been fine. Indeed, Laudrup's men have an eminently winnable League Cup quarter final against Middlesbrough next month as a reward for winning at Anfield in the fourth round.

12 WIGAN ATHLETIC (P10 W3 D2 L5 F11 A16 Pts 11)
First 10 League games: LWDLLLDLWW
League Cup: lost 2-4 on penalties (after 0-0 draw) v Bradford City (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Mauro Boselli, Franco di Santo, Arouna Kone (3)
Sack race: Roberto Martinez (since June 2009) 40/1
Original prediction: 15th
What a difference a couple of wins make! It looked for all the world that Wigan Athletic, who had taken survival for the last two seasons to the wire, were in another relegation battle already after a poor start in which they won just once and took only five points from their opening eight matches. At that stage, another season-long struggle looked likely for Roberto Martinez's men but consecutive victories at home against West Ham United and, impressively, away at Tottenham Hotspur have lifted the Latics to the comfort of mid-table. Now six points clear of the relegation places, maybe - just maybe - Wigan plan on giving their fans an easier end to this campaign.

13 LIVERPOOL (P10 W2 D5 L3 F13 A15 Pts 11)
First 10 League games: LDLDLWDWDD
League Cup: lost 1-3 v Swansea City (H) in fourth round
Europe: Currently top of Europa League group A [W2 D0 L1 F8 A6]
Top scorer: Luis Suarez (10)
Sack race: Brendan Rodgers (since June 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 7th
This has hardly been a dream start for yet another manager in the Anfield hotseat, Brendan Rodgers. Indeed, for the second season running - or perhaps even longer - Fortress Anfield is not what it was. On Sunday, Newcastle United became the latest visiting team to take the lead at the old ground which has seen just one league win - and that a 1-0 against Reading - out of six. Away form has been a little better, if you ignore the capitulation at the Hawthorns against West Brom, with two well-deserved points from fixtures at Sunderland and Everton. Luis Suarez was the star of the show in the Merseyside derby and also in a 5-2 thumping of Norwich City, easily the Reds' stand-out performance of the season so far.

14 NORWICH CITY (P10 W2 D4 L4 F7 A18 Pts 10)
First 10 League games: LDDDLLLWDW
League Cup: QF v Aston Villa (H) on 11 December
Top scorer: Grant Holt (3)
Sack race: Chris Hughton (since June 2012) 40/1
Original prediction: 20th
10 league games gone, 10 points - but it has hardly been as straightforward as that sounds for Chris Hughton's men. The Canaries were rocked in the summer by the acrimonious departure of successful manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa and their top striker Grant Holt almost followed him out of the door. It was no surprise then that Norwich began the season slowly, conceding nine goals in two horrible consecutive defeats to Liverpool and Chelsea, leaving them on three points - all draws - from seven games. Then came a potential season-turner as Holt scrambled a first win against an out-of-sorts Arsenal. That was followed by a hard-fought draw against Villa and old boss Lambert, and another 1-0 home win against Stoke City.

15 STOKE CITY (P10 W1 D6 L3 F8 A10 Pts 9)
First 10 League games: DDDDLWDLDL
League Cup: lost 3-4 aet v Swindon Town (H) in second round
Top scorer: Peter Crouch (5)
Sack race: Tony Pulis (since June 2006) 50/1
Original prediction: 12th
Stoke City have registered solid league finishes of 12th, 11th, 13th and 14th in the four seasons since their return to the top echelon - but this season, the Potters are suddenly looking less secure. Just one win from their opening 10 games can be more easily understood considering Tony Pulis's side have already travelled to Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge and Anfield, while the red-and-whites are also still unbeaten at home. In common with other clubs around them, though, Stoke have had far too many draws at home - the 0-0 with Sunderland was a particularly gruesome game. However, it can at least be expected that Stoke's position will improve in the coming weeks as the fixtures become less brutal.

16 SUNDERLAND (P9 W1 D6 L2 F6 A9 Pts 9)
First 10 League games: DDDDWLDDL
League Cup: lost 0-1 v Middlesbrough (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Steven Fletcher (5)
Sack race: Martin O'Neill (since December 2011) 20/1
Original prediction: 11th
Defeat at home to Aston Villa on Saturday made it one league win in 17 going back to March for Martin O'Neill - and, even though most games have finished in draws rather than defeat, that sequence is still unquestionably relegation form. Fortunately for the Black Cats, the run has been spread over two seasons, meaning the most goal-shy team in England is able to keep just above the relegation zone - for now. Goodness knows where the Wearsiders would be if it was not for £12m signing Steven Fletcher. The Scotsman has scored five of Sunderland's six league goals this season. Their only other successful strike was a Demba Ba OG in the drawn Wear-Tyne derby.

17 ASTON VILLA (P9 W2 D3 L5 F8 A14 Pts 9)
First 10 League games: LLDWLDLLDW
League Cup: QF v Norwich City (A) on 11 December
Top scorer: Gabriel Agbonlahor, Christian Benteke (4)
Sack race: Paul Lambert (since June 2012) 33/1
Original prediction: 10th
Paul Lambert enjoyed only his second league win as Aston Villa manager against Sunderland on Saturday, gaining three points which just about keeps the Midlanders out of real trouble for now. Defeat at Fulham last month made it just one win - against Swansea City - and five defeats in Villa's first eight games in the club's worst top-flight start since the 1986-87 relegation season. It did look as if Lambert was going to get his second win against his old club Norwich City but a late goal by Michael Turner denied him, though Lambert would eventually taste victory in the six-pointer at Sunderland.

18 READING (P9 W0 D5 L4 F12 A18 Pts 5)
First 10 League games: DLLLDDLDD
League Cup: lost 5-7 aet v Arsenal (H) in fourth round
Top scorer: Pavel Pogrebnyak (5)
Sack race: Brian McDermott (since December 2009) 33/1
Original prediction: 19th
Life back in the top flight has proved a tough assignment so far for Reading who are yet to taste victory in the league this season. A leaky defence has been the Royals' Achilles heel and the Berkshire club are without a clean sheet in 12 league and cup games so far, with five score draws out of nine league games. Indeed, Reading took kamikaze defending to the extreme in their League Cup fourth round tie, losing 7-5 after extra time to Arsenal, having been 4-0 up at one stage. Back in the league, it is vital that Brian McDermott's men earn three points soon, or else they are one part of a trio of clubs already being cast adrift at the bottom. 

19 QUEENS PARK RANGERS (P10 W0 D4 L6 F8 A19 Pts 4)
First 10 League games: LDLDLLLDLD
League Cup: lost 2-3 v Reading (H) in third round
Top scorer: Bobby Zamora (5)
Sack race: Mark Hughes (since January 2012) 6/5
Original prediction: 13th
Mark Hughes' future looks uncertain as, despite Djibril Cisse's equaliser rescuing a point on Sunday, Queens Park Rangers made it 10 league games off the start of the season without a win. However, all hope is not lost for the Loftus Park club yet as, in fact, three clubs have avoided relegation having recorded the same winless start. Also, since a horrible opening 5-0 defeat at home to Swansea City, the Hoops have been competitive in most of their games. It just a matter now of whether Hughes gets much more time from his demanding owners in west London. 

20 SOUTHAMPTON (P10 W1 D1 L8 F14 A28 Pts 4)
First 10 League games: LLLLWLDLLL
League Cup: lost 0-3 v Leeds United (A) in fourth round
Top scorer: Rickie Lambert (4)
Sack race: Nigel Adkins (since September 2010) 5/4fav
Original prediction: 9th
A win and a draw is all Southampton have to show from their opening 10 games and, statistically, the worst-ever Premier League defence at this stage has condemned the Saints to the bottom of the embryonic table. The south coast club, having won successive promotions, just do not look ready for top flight football, particularly at the back where no fewer than 28 goals have been shipped, 18 of them in five away defeats. At least, at home, there have some bright moments, no more so than the excellent 4-1 victory over a low-confidence Aston Villa team. However, Nigel Adkins's men simply must show more aptitude at the back if they are to get anywhere near survival by May.

Note: All clubs have played 10 league games except Sunderland and Reading whose match on 25 August was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch, and has been rearranged for 11 December. Top scorers' goals relate to all competitions. Sack race odds are provided by Skybet. Original predictions feature in this preview post.